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What's wrong with Fidel Castro? Nobody knows for sure but the odds are that he is very seriously sick. The Herald Sun quotes a US diplomatic source in Havana: "Drew Blakeney, the spokesman for the US Interests Section -- the closest thing Havana has to an American embassy -- said the consensus emerging was that Castro was terminally ill and would not return to power." The blog Inside Surgery tries to cobble together a speculative diagnosis based on tidbits of press information.
Although none of the editors of Insidesurgery are participating in the care of Cuban leader Fidel Castro, we are following with interesting the cryptic news releases coming out of the country. Undoubtedly vague and misleading on purpose, there are a few things we can comment and conjecture on, based on official reports from the Cuban government.
... the overall prognosis is in doubt, based on the condition necessitating the surgery, rather than the surgery itself. This would most likely point to a malignancy, where many patients have "successful surgery" but do not have surgical cures. ... "Stress has forced (Castro) into surgery." There are a few surgical conditions that can be worsened by stress possibly, although the role of stress in exacerbating these conditions is debatable. ...
The current trend in post-operative care is to ambulate patients as soon as possible. In the biggest abdominal operations done on patients (liver transplants, pancreas resections, aneurysm repairs) every effort is made to get people out of bed in the first day or two. So, it is hard to imagine what surgery would keep Castro in bed for several weeks if he was not at a terminal stage of his life. There is something suspicious going on here. If Castro had some non-life threatening condition, why would the authorities not simply say that he had a perforated peptic ulcer which was successfully repaired and that the recovery time would be a week? My guess - Castro has widely metastatic colon cancer and will be dead in the next several weeks without ever regaining control of the country.
Fausta's blog has a roundup of the Castro death rumors. Given his age the only uncertain part about the rumors is the date. When Castro finally leaves the stage what happens next? Peggy Noonan suggests going to Cuba and having a party.
What to do now?
How about this: Treat it as an opportunity. Use the change of facts to announce a change of course. Declare the old way over. Declare a new U.S.-Cuban relationship, blow open the doors of commerce and human interaction, allow American investment and tourism, mix it up, reach out one by one and person by person to the people of Cuba. "Flood the zone." Flood it with incipient prosperity and the insinuation of democratic values. Let Castroism drown in it.
Raul Castro, Fidel's 75 year old younger brother may have other ideas. He may not like to party. That's probably why there's still some residual tension implied in the President's words, "We will support you in your effort to build a transitional government in Cuba committed to democracy, and we will take note of those, in the current Cuban regime, who obstruct your desire for a free Cuba". Heck, with North Korea, Iran, Lebanon, Syria, Somalia, Venezuela and Iraq all perking up one more won't matter.
posted by wretchardthecat at 8/04/2006 01:37:00 AM
47 Comments:
Well here is the mango juice. Open Cuba up to Florida real estate investors. You will have so much growth and activity, it will have Donald Trump wearing a Che-shirt.
The communists will panic that they are missing their "Chinese moment" and jump into the fray to make the dollar. Before long, Fidel and his legacy will be reduced to a bobble-head.
By the way, has anyone noticed GWB's soul brother pootypoot is taking salsa lessons from Hugo and poor George sits on the sidelines with terminal gringo-hips?
hk vol wrote: "Old dreams die hard and it will end up messy."
Worthy of consideration.
While I'm optimistic about what can occur in Cuba post-Castro, I'm finding myself rather apprehensive. Imagining an in-rush of capital and entrepeneurial spirit, as well as a vast increase in tourism and those looking to take advantage of it, will certainly be a tremendous change. If order is not maintained and if there is not a gentle transition things could get a little unpleasant.
Cuba doesn't have much, but they do have reasonable health care, security, and education. And, as rigid as things may be, people do know their place. Take away those first three and make one's sense of place ambiguous and you could certainly have some very bewildered people. Some may say that their current situation represents that of well cared for, but still caged, farm animals. Some people "liberate" farm animals by breaking into farms and opening the pens, allowing the animals to make due in the wild that they are not at all adapted to.
President Bush's comments are certainly intersting. And, of course, it is clearly within the best interests of the US for Cuba to be secure, prosperous, and free. Nevertheless, the more the US "helps" the more it will be blamed if things don't come up exactly rosey. Our two big experiments this century in "transitioning" societies to democracy have been devastating failures in the eyes of many. The reverberations of a failure this close to home, throughout a region with the likes of Chavez, Morales, and Ortega, could be tremendously problematic.
And, just as some have decided that they had no interest in seeing a free and democratic Iraq or Afghanistan, we should expect that there will be a number of very commited outside actors who have no interest in seeing Cuba make a succesful transition.
An opportunity mixed with tremendous danger.
re: right of return.
For those still alive, it'll likely be like East Germany. Descendents will have some, but minimal standing (arguing "I would have inherited" will not be sufficient). Some will get their property back, others will settle for a swap, and others will get some compensation, and arguments will happen in court or before arbitrators.
Note the same recipe ought to apply in the mid-east. Note that the jihadis believe "once owned by any fascist, always owned by the fascists." Where they have a habit of murdering those that sell / sold their land to the Israelis.
Raul does not have Fidel's charisma, and his grip on power will be less secure.
Nevertheless, as long as he maintains that grip, change will be seriously impeded:
Bring back the dynamic duo of Habu and Possumtater, complete with their bag of tricks, from exploding cigars to the feared "black hole of death" decoy water closet.
Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis come to mind when hearing stress related and intestinal used in the same description. Although, given his age, it could be lots of things.
Surgery on 80-year-olds isn't a good idea. Their tissue is generally in a deteriorated state and things like sutures tend to result in leaks. This would explain the long recovery (if that's possible) and guarded condition.
As for Raul...I heard he has a drinking problem. Lord knows what copious amounts of rum administered over the coarse of years has done to his brain tissue. Most long-term heavy drinkers tend to be bi-polar...no?
Any change is a time for hope and wonder. My guess is that Raul will try to maintain his big brother's legacy but will prove weak and inconsistent...as long as his liver holds out.
Let the maggots have the old communist reprobate. He is despised by most Cubans I believe and they will have to post guards at his grave to prevent the common people from urinating on his grave.
Vaya con dios Fidel. A lot of your old pals are waiting for you.
James, you have drunk the Koolaid of Cuban wonderfulness. Health care, literacy. Wow. I bet they have free day care too, but I think when the rock is lifted, what they'll find underneath won't be pretty.
I also think the property confiscated will be returned to the rightful owners as it should be.
Cuba is luckier than East Germany because Cuban-Americans have prospered and are anxious to return to help their friends and relatives left behind and Cuban beaches are beautiful and there are lots of them. Within a year or two after Communism is buried, there will be few traces of it left in view.
The "Rightful" owners?
Possession is 9/10's of rightousness
Ask anyone in possession.
Whom ever has been assisting Fidel and Raul, they are going quietly into the night?
While I have never visited Cuba, I was involved in killing some Cubans. They did not go quietly, not at all. But that was twenty some years ago, people can change, aye.
Those homes and enterprises have been occupied by those who stayed behind for the past 45 years. They're not going to give them back to a group of people or their children who fled 45 years ago.
but they hold the old original rusted keys!!!!
I did not know the cubans that stayed were zionist pigs
Cuba's communist "literacy and health care" are like Ted Bundy's "intelligence and charm".
'Cuba doesn't have much, but they do have reasonable health care, security, and education.'
That's all great...but what are they doing about global warming?
I read, I believe it was in Forbes, a few years ago that Russian business/mafia have been positioning themselves for the take. There's been lots of activity going on during their extended worker's holiday in paradise, it just hasn't include US Cubans or US businesses.
Does all of this ambiguity about his condition remind anyone else about Arafat? He's dying, he's fine, he's alive, he's dead, he's battling it out, he's already dead, he's gone, he's rallied.
Here we go again.
Back in the 60's or 70's, replacement of Fidel with with brother Raul would have been considered a positive indicator by intelligence analysts of a plan to ramp up activities against the U.S. Fidel was a comparative pansy in the eyes of the worldwide Commie leadership and would have to be replaced by his more ruthless brother in the event of open hostilties.
And now, communism is indeed ramping up again in that region - led by the dictator of Venezuala rather than that of Cuba - who has warm words for Iran - who has an alliance with Syria who has an alliance with Hezbolah and has sold rocket propellant to North Korea - who has an alliance with Iran, and one that is far more than merely cordial - just look at the details of the recent Taepodong test flight if you need to be convinced.
And Fidel is out of power, replaced by Raul.
Probably just a huge series of coincidences....
I see I touched several nerves here by suggesting that Cuba does have some kind of medical care. It seems as if some people, so alarmed that something positive could in any way be said about Cuba, entirely missed my point. I don't know how I could have made it any clearer.
Several aspects of Cuban society function. Not on a pretty level, but they do function. There are a variety of systems in place that the people are simply used to interacting with. Will things successfully transition over? Will law enforcement, utilities, and public health systems continue to function? Or will their be a period where Cuba goes through a wonderful liberation such as, well, Iraq for example. Or turns in to a Columbia or even Sao Paulo, for that matter.
And as to Cuba's healthcare, it's not that bad. Cuba has long been known to have highly skilled doctors; my personal physician is from there and amongst the best I've ever known. Cuba's infant mortality is lower than the United States and life expectancy and other indicators are some of the highest in Latin America.
The general situation in Cuba is a shame. But that doesn't mean we need to defensively deny or disparage areas that are functioning nor that we should assume that everything will automatically get better once Castro's regime falls. It certainly has tremendous possibility.
But several years later, Iraq is a complete mess and we still can't keep the power running or maintain even basic public welfare. I'd much rather vacation in Havana than Haditha. Considering all the bold claims of how easily Iraq was going to transfer into a democracy made by the likes of Perle, Wolfowitz, et al, I think there should be a bit of caution in assuming that Cuban society will make an easy transition or that the US government's assistance would even be helpful.
habu
Have they kept up the property tax payments?
Old Robert E Lee forgot to pay his.
Lost the whole farm. Never to be returned.
Then, in the US, eminent domain overrides personal property rights.
Perhaps the previous owners would be due the 1959 cash value.
Wouldn't be much in real dollar terms today. Depends also on which Judge hears the case, I guess.
Will there be a deCommunization of the System in Cuba?
I'd tend to doubt it.
Cedarford opined:
Next to Jews, no other ethnic group in America is as adept at bending American foreign policy to their own interests as the Cuban Exiles...
Thanks for that.
I feel better now.
Is there such an animal as a Jewish Cuban?
Just asking.
Think of the power to influence American foreign policy!
Jamie Irons
Habu_3,
I am not familiar with the Indian AF vs USAF scrimmage, but I would be careful with reading too much into it. Typically those tend to be slanted towards the home team.
I have thought that, following the collapse of the USSR, the best policy would have been to completely open up relations with Cuba.
Hugo is also applying for a soon-open seat on the UN security council. Competition is Guatemala. I flew in and out of Guatamela a bit back in the 80s, and used to wander around looking at a squadron of P-51 Mustangs the Guatemalan AF had nearby (gosh the 80s were a long time ago). Painted up in Brit-style jungle camo. Gorgeous airplane, maybe the best lines ever.
It would be an absolute hoot if we could get a Juan or Gomez to pull a Viktor Belenko and fly one of those babies to Miami. I hope our intel guys are turning some pilots as we blog.
Can't we just buy one? I'm sure the Ruskies would happily sell one to us.
Next to Jews, no other ethnic group in America is as adept at bending American foreign policy to their own interests as the Cuban Exiles.
Better watch out C4, those Judeo-Cubanos are going to come and take your house. I'm sure they have the key.
Nobody has mentioned the best upside here: Cuban cigars will be legal again.
Look out, here come the JewCuboweed!
Habu:
re: moral bankruptcy
Moral bankruptcy can refer to the state of a consensus, whether it is morbidly naive or tragically anomic. The problem, as Wretchard described it, is our "sensory organs." Surely they are disconnected from old market shares; are these shares cultural and ideological as well as financial?
The defining images of our time may be entirely obscured because of this disconnection; skepticism and criticism seem to define many people's outlooks, but so too does faith. How much fidelity this anecdote has with any idea of a "broader" thought in our society may be evident in 2006 and 2008. Until then, I'm unsure there are any functioning sensory organs in the age of Information; that doesn't mean its a bad thing. There may very well be a consensus, but perhaps criticism of the consensus sells better than affirmation. That might be a good thing too, even if the people carrying it out are despicable.
No one source of input means no chance of subverting the centralization, and subversion is popular in both the soft forms of the Daily Show and South Park. This may be a new structure, not a cycle of decline or ascent. Americans are not stupid; we may see its 1938 and may want to change our course; the bottleneck is the politicians.
Here's to Rice/Gingrich administrations in 08.
Habu:
I'd agree on the big-chair, tho the opposite wouldn't dissuade. Condi is thinking pretty big picture with her state dept reforms. As Bolton said, its not often a secretary of state calls for "revolution."
The new state dept will be pretty interesting to watch - the emphasis on leaving corrupt politics in the capital and connecting directly with the population's woes sounds ambitious and perhaps is a shrewd change of procedure.
Its also worth pointing out that such a reform may be tallied under the "event which subverts the idea of the state," in that it recognizes the value, the practicality of avoiding the bureaucratic games that pass for "progress" ever since the cold war ended. I just wonder what these policies will actually look like. Are they going to be mini berlin airlifts done in the face of some blustering politician eager for higher margins on his NGO plenty? Or just talking with mayors instead of prime ministers?
To get back on topic, that new state dept. strategy sounds apt for a transitional Cuba - and for that matter Africa and Latin America as well, no?
What's the current over/under in online betting?
In Northern CA, they're known as "liberals," or, worse yet, "Boxer Voters."
Charlie Rangel threatens to resign of the Dems don't take back the House.
(And is Disgusted by the INSENSITIVITY of the worms dancing in the streets waiting for Fidel's death.)
"They didn't know much about the exact conditions within the country, but suckered Bush and his neocons into believing it would be a cakewalk, Iraq was just aching to be not only Bush's secular democratic pal, but his "special friend" Israel's best buddy. They spun that people would cheer the American liberators, have to discourage their daughters from hooking up with the wonderful troops, oceans of cheap oil would issue forth, the Ba'athists would humbly accept their personal destruction after losing their jobs --and of course, that the Iraqis would annoint the Exiles their just, rightful rulers by acclaimation."
That would have to go into the Guinness book of world records as the longest string of consecutive straw men ever to be found in nature.
Dancing Worms!
Castro's regime murdered copiously for years--there's film--it was on cable a day ago--of the open-stadium show-trials where the trussed defendants stand before tens of thousands roaring "A La Pared!", referring to the wall where the firing squads worked.
Who was killed off? It started with captured Batistanos but then segued into anyone who disagreed with the Party.
Yet our tolerant humanists on the left just love Fidel and La Revolucion.
No explanation for that other than what VDH has for John Dingell, who a few days ago "can't pick sides" between Israel & Hez: To use your moral judgment, you first have to *have* some.
Maybe the Left loves him because the Right loathes him?
Hope that's it. Hope it's not some sort of revolutionary thrill at the murdering of political opponents as a 'validating performance art'.
But we know deep down that that's exactly what it is, don't we.
man, that Possum Queen is some kinda healthy-lookin!
(jeez, you celtics are a freaking mess !)
Hey Whit, you from 'round Wausau? I'm just up the road. I plan on takin' the young 'uns down there this weekend - doubt if the wife will join us.
Anyway, DanMyers said, Habu,
As you certainly know, it is one thing to possess the equipment, entirely another to use the equipment with skill.
Until recently I worked as a design engineer for a defense contractor. We specialized in equipment used by the SEALS and other special forces. Egypt and the UAE were also clients of ours. We found that the equipment we sold to those guys was never kept operational - they were simply used as parade pieces. I've no idea if the Venezuelans will act that way or not, but it is worth keeping in mind.
whit, keerect me if I'm wrong, but aren't the English-Scots-Irish the main strain of the Celts?
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
God Bless P'tater
the curse of oil--no need to develop industry. Cotter pins? We don't need no steenkin cotter pins!
I believe Forrest was the one who escaped a personal encirclement by yanking a Union infantryman up onto the saddle with him and galloping through the rest of the enemy before they could recover their senses to shoot anyway.
Oh, for SURE, let's not have any o that "kneejerk" goin on.
Something this Jewban finds worth fighting for...
(Keep scrolling all the way down!)
Jamie Irons
Holy Smoking Babes!!!
Thanks Jamie, that little jolt will get me through the rest of this @#$% Friday work day just fine.
My thoughts are similar to James Kielland's. It may be kind of like what happened to the East Germans after the Wall fell back in '89. The reunification of Germany brought Wessies into the old East Germany as economic carpetbaggers, while the Ossies had high unemployment rates, which they hadn't had under communism. Similarly, the Americanized Cubans would have much more capital to invest in revitalizing Cuba, which would mean that they would reap much of the rewards. They might not be able to reclaim their old family plantations and homesteads, but they might have the wherewithal to buy out the interlopers living there now. The ingredients are there for a lot of resentment of the Cubans for the Cuban-Americans if they come back.
The gaming industry in the U.S. has been eying Cuba hungrily for years, with thoughts of "old Havana" dancing like sugar plums in their eyes.
Given the slightest opportunity at all, folks from Vegas and Atlantic City will whooosh into Havana and Cuba in a way that will make the Christmas tsunami look like a piker.
Given the amounts of cash waiting and wanting to be thrown at Cuba, I can't imagine that anyone will have the strength to turn it down after Fidel's late and lamented departure.
It's about time Fidel kicks the bucket. But Fidel is just a sideshow.
Anxiety time. Nasty rumors. Watch Iran. August 22 will be here soon. Is the West sleeping? Is this 1938 or 1939?
Lighting up the sky on August 22
World War
wretchard -
"Heck, with North Korea, Iran, Lebanon, Syria, Somalia, Venezuela and Iraq all perking up one more won't matter."
with the rumors of "Soviet" arms
arriving in Somalia,
is there a reason you've left Monsiuer Putin's fiefdom off the list?
Sri Lanka, too. The Tamils are blowin' and goin'.
(Just to refresh my memory I did a net-search on the Su-35, found a lot of good info at www.globalsecurity.org)
Maj_Gen_Stanley posted an alarming comment that mentioned Venezuela’s purchase of Russian Su-35. I don’t challenge his sources, but I would point out that the USAF F-15s and F-16s he described as having been defeated by the Indian Air Force Su-30MKIs are designs that have been deployed for several decades now. There are US fighters deployed now that can take on the Sukhoi-35 very comfortably.
The airframe of the Sukhoi-35 is a variant of the much older Sukhoi-27, and first became operational in 1988. Canard wings near the nose help give it substantially greater maneuverability than most other designs of its era.
I live in a region with several military air bases that are home to new squadrons of the F-22 Raptor, which has advanced avionics, vectored thrust maneuverability, and multi-target simultaneous management capability, that are at least comparable to the Su-35. Moreover, they’ve been designed from the start with much more advanced stealth features.
I guess my point is only that Hugo Chavez is not so much aiming to try to overmatch the U.S. as to overwhelm any neighbors in the Southern hemisphere.
It’s a situation that certainly bears watching. It brings to mind Hitler’s brazen announcements that Germany was no longer bound by the restrictions of the Treaty of Versailles that England and France imposed at the end of World War I. He had already been clandestinely rebuilding his airforce, and working with the munitions manufacturers of several other countries to develop new arms. But the construction of capital ships is a little trickier to conceal...
Look for the tell-tale signs:
Is Chavez talking about needing more room for Venezuelans?
Is there a prominent irridentist theme to his speeches?
Is he massing troops on his borders?
Are Venezuelan armed forces “assisting” in military conflicts outside of Venezuela?
Those might sound tongue-in-cheek, but a lot of people mistakenly dismissed Hitler as a clown for a long time. Those of us who have grown up with television are accustomed to seeing performances in extreme close-up, and TV-actors are trained to minimize their gestures because they know how much those Extreme CloseUps magnify things. Hitler and many other political manipulators were trained in their gestures and performances for an audience that was watching from much further away. Their gestures HAD to be broad, like for a stage actor. (Look at newsreels of Huey Long for an interesting comparison.)
The most disturbing aspect of all Chavez adventures is the allegations of hanky-panky with Hizb’allah.
Hmmm. Little more research indicates the Sukhoi-30 series does include thrust-vectoring engines for greater agility.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Su-30
Actually, Mad Fiddler, I was being sarcastic and quoting a journalist (Reuben F. Johnson of the Weekly Standard) who believed SU-35's were going to be flying air cover over Cuba. My sarcasm was prompted by the idea that people would take the journalist seriously, whereas he was clearly geographically challenged.
My points were:
1) the SU-35 does not have the range to reach Cuba unless refuled air-to-air or via some intermediate island. Barring any agreements, Venezuela does not have air-to-air refueling capability.
2) there are only 24 SU-35's; the numbers are too few to cover an island the size of Cuba 24x7. When those 24 are gone that's it. The next nearest ones are in Russia.
3) expect interdiction between Cuba and Venezuela by the US Navy. Even if the USN Doesn't, the Venezuelans have to accept that it might happen. Engagements would take place over open water where there aren't many witnesses.
4) transit and turnaround time from Venezuela to Cuba (remember, we need a roundtrip here) would be fairly extended. Compare this to NAS Key West, some 90 miles from Cuba, or various USAF bases along the Gulf Coast.
5) As has been pointed out by others, the US/India engagement was not a "straight-up" fight, but was weighted heavily in India's favor. Check www.strategypage.com for more details.
Not covered by me (but others):
1) having the equipment is one thing, knowing how to use it properly is another. Manfred von Richtofen said it best: "It's not the crate, it's the man in the crate that's important." Chavez's pilots may have the SU-35s (have they actually been delivered?) but how well trained are they, and that includes realistic combat-like training (e.g. Top Gun and Red Flag), and not just how to take-off and land. And they would be competing against AWACS backed fighters with stand-off weapons flown by pilots with a lot of experience.
2) what happens if the SU-35s are based in Cuba? Aside from them becoming expensive piles of junk about an hour after an attack on US forces or US territory.
Likewise of concern (as also covered) is an attack on Gitmo from Cuba. Cuba does have some mechanized troops. Of course they'd have to prepare for the attack, and deal with their own minefields, but I suppose it is possible they are ready to do just that.
Bottom line: Journalist Reuben F. Johnson does not know what he is talking about, and flaunts his ignorance as a badge of honor. And do you think Chavez would risk his pretty toys like that?
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