Friday, August 04, 2006

Hay Que Revolver la Mierda

What's wrong with Fidel Castro? Nobody knows for sure but the odds are that he is very seriously sick. The Herald Sun quotes a US diplomatic source in Havana: "Drew Blakeney, the spokesman for the US Interests Section -- the closest thing Havana has to an American embassy -- said the consensus emerging was that Castro was terminally ill and would not return to power." The blog Inside Surgery tries to cobble together a speculative diagnosis based on tidbits of press information.


Although none of the editors of Insidesurgery are participating in the care of Cuban leader Fidel Castro, we are following with interesting the cryptic news releases coming out of the country. Undoubtedly vague and misleading on purpose, there are a few things we can comment and conjecture on, based on official reports from the Cuban government.

... the overall prognosis is in doubt, based on the condition necessitating the surgery, rather than the surgery itself. This would most likely point to a malignancy, where many patients have "successful surgery" but do not have surgical cures. ...  "Stress has forced (Castro) into surgery." There are a few surgical conditions that can be worsened by stress possibly, although the role of stress in exacerbating these conditions is debatable. ...

The current trend in post-operative care is to ambulate patients as soon as possible. In the biggest abdominal operations done on patients (liver transplants, pancreas resections, aneurysm repairs) every effort is made to get people out of bed in the first day or two. So, it is hard to imagine what surgery would keep Castro in bed for several weeks if he was not at a terminal stage of his life. There is something suspicious going on here. If Castro had some non-life threatening condition, why would the authorities not simply say that he had a perforated peptic ulcer which was successfully repaired and that the recovery time would be a week? My guess - Castro has widely metastatic colon cancer and will be dead in the next several weeks without ever regaining control of the country.

Fausta's blog has a roundup of the Castro death rumors. Given his age the only uncertain part about the rumors is the date. When Castro finally leaves the stage what happens next? Peggy Noonan suggests going to Cuba and having a party.

What to do now?

How about this: Treat it as an opportunity. Use the change of facts to announce a change of course. Declare the old way over. Declare a new U.S.-Cuban relationship, blow open the doors of commerce and human interaction, allow American investment and tourism, mix it up, reach out one by one and person by person to the people of Cuba. "Flood the zone." Flood it with incipient prosperity and the insinuation of democratic values. Let Castroism drown in it.

Raul Castro, Fidel's 75 year old younger brother may have other ideas. He may not like to party. That's probably why there's still some residual tension implied in the President's words, "We will support you in your effort to build a transitional government in Cuba committed to democracy, and we will take note of those, in the current Cuban regime, who obstruct your desire for a free Cuba". Heck, with North Korea, Iran, Lebanon, Syria, Somalia, Venezuela and Iraq all perking up one more won't matter.

94 Comments:

Blogger 2164th said...

Well here is the mango juice. Open Cuba up to Florida real estate investors. You will have so much growth and activity, it will have Donald Trump wearing a Che-shirt.
The communists will panic that they are missing their "Chinese moment" and jump into the fray to make the dollar. Before long, Fidel and his legacy will be reduced to a bobble-head.

By the way, has anyone noticed GWB's soul brother pootypoot is taking salsa lessons from Hugo and poor George sits on the sidelines with terminal gringo-hips?

8/04/2006 02:05:00 AM  
Blogger HK Vol said...

One interesting aside. If Cuban-Americans are expecting to return to Cuba and reclaim their old homes and properties (and many of them are), they are in for a rude surprise. Those homes and enterprises have been occupied by those who stayed behind for the past 45 years. They're not going to give them back to a group of people or their children who fled 45 years ago.

Old dreams die hard and it will end up messy. My guess is that nothing much changes until Raul leaves the scene. He's been in charge of the armed forces for decades, so Fidel's leaving won't change a thing on the military/security side. So any drastic changes upon the death of Fidel are wishful thinking in my view.

8/04/2006 02:43:00 AM  
Blogger James Kielland said...

hk vol wrote: "Old dreams die hard and it will end up messy."

Worthy of consideration.

While I'm optimistic about what can occur in Cuba post-Castro, I'm finding myself rather apprehensive. Imagining an in-rush of capital and entrepeneurial spirit, as well as a vast increase in tourism and those looking to take advantage of it, will certainly be a tremendous change. If order is not maintained and if there is not a gentle transition things could get a little unpleasant.

Cuba doesn't have much, but they do have reasonable health care, security, and education. And, as rigid as things may be, people do know their place. Take away those first three and make one's sense of place ambiguous and you could certainly have some very bewildered people. Some may say that their current situation represents that of well cared for, but still caged, farm animals. Some people "liberate" farm animals by breaking into farms and opening the pens, allowing the animals to make due in the wild that they are not at all adapted to.

President Bush's comments are certainly intersting. And, of course, it is clearly within the best interests of the US for Cuba to be secure, prosperous, and free. Nevertheless, the more the US "helps" the more it will be blamed if things don't come up exactly rosey. Our two big experiments this century in "transitioning" societies to democracy have been devastating failures in the eyes of many. The reverberations of a failure this close to home, throughout a region with the likes of Chavez, Morales, and Ortega, could be tremendously problematic.

And, just as some have decided that they had no interest in seeing a free and democratic Iraq or Afghanistan, we should expect that there will be a number of very commited outside actors who have no interest in seeing Cuba make a succesful transition.

An opportunity mixed with tremendous danger.

8/04/2006 04:21:00 AM  
Blogger Ari Tai said...

re: right of return.

For those still alive, it'll likely be like East Germany. Descendents will have some, but minimal standing (arguing "I would have inherited" will not be sufficient). Some will get their property back, others will settle for a swap, and others will get some compensation, and arguments will happen in court or before arbitrators.

Note the same recipe ought to apply in the mid-east. Note that the jihadis believe "once owned by any fascist, always owned by the fascists." Where they have a habit of murdering those that sell / sold their land to the Israelis.

8/04/2006 04:25:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

Raul does not have Fidel's charisma, and his grip on power will be less secure.
Nevertheless, as long as he maintains that grip, change will be seriously impeded:

Bring back the dynamic duo of Habu and Possumtater, complete with their bag of tricks, from exploding cigars to the feared "black hole of death" decoy water closet.

8/04/2006 04:31:00 AM  
Blogger enscout said...

Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis come to mind when hearing stress related and intestinal used in the same description. Although, given his age, it could be lots of things.

Surgery on 80-year-olds isn't a good idea. Their tissue is generally in a deteriorated state and things like sutures tend to result in leaks. This would explain the long recovery (if that's possible) and guarded condition.

As for Raul...I heard he has a drinking problem. Lord knows what copious amounts of rum administered over the coarse of years has done to his brain tissue. Most long-term heavy drinkers tend to be bi-polar...no?

Any change is a time for hope and wonder. My guess is that Raul will try to maintain his big brother's legacy but will prove weak and inconsistent...as long as his liver holds out.

8/04/2006 04:46:00 AM  
Blogger Scott said...

Castro as Chevy Chase - the footage of Castro taking a header after giving (yet another) 4-hour speach (last year?) will long live in my memory. Just hilarious. Broke a knee plus other injuries. THAT's gonna leave a mark. Good riddance to the old bastard.

8/04/2006 04:48:00 AM  
Blogger Goesh said...

Let the maggots have the old communist reprobate. He is despised by most Cubans I believe and they will have to post guards at his grave to prevent the common people from urinating on his grave.

8/04/2006 05:13:00 AM  
Blogger erp said...

Vaya con dios Fidel. A lot of your old pals are waiting for you.

James, you have drunk the Koolaid of Cuban wonderfulness. Health care, literacy. Wow. I bet they have free day care too, but I think when the rock is lifted, what they'll find underneath won't be pretty.

I also think the property confiscated will be returned to the rightful owners as it should be.

Cuba is luckier than East Germany because Cuban-Americans have prospered and are anxious to return to help their friends and relatives left behind and Cuban beaches are beautiful and there are lots of them. Within a year or two after Communism is buried, there will be few traces of it left in view.

8/04/2006 05:34:00 AM  
Blogger desert rat said...

The "Rightful" owners?
Possession is 9/10's of rightousness
Ask anyone in possession.

Whom ever has been assisting Fidel and Raul, they are going quietly into the night?
While I have never visited Cuba, I was involved in killing some Cubans. They did not go quietly, not at all. But that was twenty some years ago, people can change, aye.

8/04/2006 05:41:00 AM  
Blogger Bridget said...

Please let it be pancreatic adenocarcinoma, a loathsome disease and a sure death sentence.

I've frequently wondered what would have happened in Iraq had we simply waited for Saddam to die. My theory is that Uday and Qusay were dead men walking. Iraq would have been up for grabs, and all the usual suspects would have been locked in the conflicts we see today. We simply accelerated the inevitable.

Judging by the reactions to Castro's impending demise, my guess is that some long laid plans are being readied. Hopefully, none of them belong to the US government.

Two wild cards: the governor of Florida is the president's brother, and Hugo Chavez. I wouldn't put it past that fool to drag us into a confrontation.

8/04/2006 05:44:00 AM  
Blogger What is "Occupation" said...

Those homes and enterprises have been occupied by those who stayed behind for the past 45 years. They're not going to give them back to a group of people or their children who fled 45 years ago.


but they hold the old original rusted keys!!!!

I did not know the cubans that stayed were zionist pigs

8/04/2006 06:01:00 AM  
Blogger Buddy Larsen said...

Cuba's communist "literacy and health care" are like Ted Bundy's "intelligence and charm".

8/04/2006 06:12:00 AM  
Blogger phil g said...

'Cuba doesn't have much, but they do have reasonable health care, security, and education.'

That's all great...but what are they doing about global warming?

8/04/2006 06:34:00 AM  
Blogger phil g said...

I read, I believe it was in Forbes, a few years ago that Russian business/mafia have been positioning themselves for the take. There's been lots of activity going on during their extended worker's holiday in paradise, it just hasn't include US Cubans or US businesses.

8/04/2006 06:38:00 AM  
Blogger Chester said...

Does all of this ambiguity about his condition remind anyone else about Arafat? He's dying, he's fine, he's alive, he's dead, he's battling it out, he's already dead, he's gone, he's rallied.

Here we go again.

8/04/2006 06:47:00 AM  
Blogger RWE said...

Back in the 60's or 70's, replacement of Fidel with with brother Raul would have been considered a positive indicator by intelligence analysts of a plan to ramp up activities against the U.S. Fidel was a comparative pansy in the eyes of the worldwide Commie leadership and would have to be replaced by his more ruthless brother in the event of open hostilties.

And now, communism is indeed ramping up again in that region - led by the dictator of Venezuala rather than that of Cuba - who has warm words for Iran - who has an alliance with Syria who has an alliance with Hezbolah and has sold rocket propellant to North Korea - who has an alliance with Iran, and one that is far more than merely cordial - just look at the details of the recent Taepodong test flight if you need to be convinced.

And Fidel is out of power, replaced by Raul.

Probably just a huge series of coincidences....

8/04/2006 07:30:00 AM  
Blogger Habu_3 said...

In the late 50's and early 60's the group Alpha 66 was formed as an anti-Castro counter.
With regard to property ownership the outcome, once Fidel is gone and the island turns democratic with a huge influx from Miami is in doubt. Why?
One of the objectives of Alpha 66 was to get the land grant documentation out of Cuba prior to Batistas fall. They had many successes flying under US radar in small aircraft,landing at remote clandestine airstrips and then simply gathering the documents. My mother, although not Cuban was used as a courier on one operation and had to leave abruptly when Castro's men got wind of her mission. She was poising as a tourist.
The documents of most of the wealth Cuban families are safely in Miami and elsewhere. I have seen many with my own eyes. They will certainly have a ligitimate claim to what was theirs.

8/04/2006 07:33:00 AM  
Blogger James Kielland said...

I see I touched several nerves here by suggesting that Cuba does have some kind of medical care. It seems as if some people, so alarmed that something positive could in any way be said about Cuba, entirely missed my point. I don't know how I could have made it any clearer.

Several aspects of Cuban society function. Not on a pretty level, but they do function. There are a variety of systems in place that the people are simply used to interacting with. Will things successfully transition over? Will law enforcement, utilities, and public health systems continue to function? Or will their be a period where Cuba goes through a wonderful liberation such as, well, Iraq for example. Or turns in to a Columbia or even Sao Paulo, for that matter.

And as to Cuba's healthcare, it's not that bad. Cuba has long been known to have highly skilled doctors; my personal physician is from there and amongst the best I've ever known. Cuba's infant mortality is lower than the United States and life expectancy and other indicators are some of the highest in Latin America.

The general situation in Cuba is a shame. But that doesn't mean we need to defensively deny or disparage areas that are functioning nor that we should assume that everything will automatically get better once Castro's regime falls. It certainly has tremendous possibility.

But several years later, Iraq is a complete mess and we still can't keep the power running or maintain even basic public welfare. I'd much rather vacation in Havana than Haditha. Considering all the bold claims of how easily Iraq was going to transfer into a democracy made by the likes of Perle, Wolfowitz, et al, I think there should be a bit of caution in assuming that Cuban society will make an easy transition or that the US government's assistance would even be helpful.

8/04/2006 07:43:00 AM  
Blogger desert rat said...

habu
Have they kept up the property tax payments?
Old Robert E Lee forgot to pay his.
Lost the whole farm. Never to be returned.

Then, in the US, eminent domain overrides personal property rights.
Perhaps the previous owners would be due the 1959 cash value.
Wouldn't be much in real dollar terms today. Depends also on which Judge hears the case, I guess.
Will there be a deCommunization of the System in Cuba?
I'd tend to doubt it.

8/04/2006 07:58:00 AM  
Blogger Habu_3 said...

James Kielland,
Your points are vry well taken. We must remember in the blogshere that our accumulated knowledge is not certitude ofr any final outcome anywhere. It's just our own insights,experiences, and intuition.
I believe that Hugo Chavez will create quite a problem for the US and Cuban-Americans that want to return and begin a democracy. His recent deals with Mr, Putin for aircraft and 100,000 AK-47's does not give one the feeling of harmony on the horizon.
"The total bill for Venezuela's arms purchases in Russia will exceed $1 billion and includes 24 Sukhoi Su-35 Super Flanker fighter aircraft--a system so advanced that not even the Russian air force has this model in its inventory yet. Based on the famous Su-27 and Su-30MK fighters, the Su-35 is a slightly larger, more powerful, modernized version of its predecessors. It will incorporate the latest in avionics and weapons systems, including a radar system superior to that used by the Indian air force's Su-30MKIs, which defeated U.S. Air Force F-15 and F-16 aircraft in recent joint exercises. It will make Venezuela the big kid on the block in South America and will significantly increase the striking range of the Venezuelan air force. Chávez could conceivably now offer air support against the Americans to his friend Fidel Castro should the United States decide to take action against Cuba in the future."
by Reuben F. Johnson ,Weekly Standard 8/3/06

8/04/2006 08:01:00 AM  
Blogger Cedarford said...

ERP - I also think the property confiscated will be returned to the rightful owners as it should be.

And what would the motivation be for Cubans living in a house for 45 years to evict themselves? There are two classes of claims - those who were American citizens at the time their corporate and personal property was seized, those who were Cuban citizens losing out in a Revolution. Just because the Cubans later became American citizens does not transform their loss into a matter for the Nation to pursue as a legal offense against American interests. American lossed from Castro confiscating US assets are a nation-to-nation matter. The Exile's claims should be between them and the Cuban people.

ERP Cuba is luckier than East Germany because Cuban-Americans have prospered and are anxious to return to help their friends and relatives left behind and Cuban beaches are beautiful and there are lots of them.....

Beaches aside, and Canadians say they are woooonderrrrful, eh -

We have to be exceptionally wary of the exiles and their claims.

AS we learned from the stupidity of us listening to the Iraqi exiles, who themselves were long gone from Iraq -40 years or so, but who postured as "The Experts" in all things Iraqi.

They didn't know much about the exact conditions within the country, but suckered Bush and his neocons into believing it would be a cakewalk, Iraq was just aching to be not only Bush's secular democratic pal, but his "special friend" Israel's best buddy. They spun that people would cheer the American liberators, have to discourage their daughters from hooking up with the wonderful troops, oceans of cheap oil would issue forth, the Ba'athists would humbly accept their personal destruction after losing their jobs --and of course, that the Iraqis would annoint the Exiles their just, rightful rulers by acclaimation.

Next to Jews, no other ethnic group in America is as adept at bending American foreign policy to their own interests as the Cuban Exiles. And they have used part of that clout to keep all other Americans from visiting and learning much about present-day Cuba.

So before we committ ourselves to financial, military, official foreign policy formed by us listening and nodding to what the Exiles want and their telling us what America has to do in a post-Castro transition.....we best calibrate that to learning what the actual people of Cuba want to avoid another tar baby like Iraq.

8/04/2006 08:02:00 AM  
Blogger Habu_3 said...

dr.
i have to give you all those points, particularly the de-communization. however each of the others are, in our opinions ,valid.

Like most things I suppose it'll take years to work through any transition IF there is one....or we could just send Jimma down to apologize and conclude another anti US "understanding"..which he feels entitled to do.

8/04/2006 08:06:00 AM  
Blogger Habu_3 said...

cedarford said:
"And what would the motivation be for Cubans living in a house for 45 years to evict themselves? "

Great question. I think the answer is their desire to have peace and harmony in the land.
Each will be given a Fidel Beach Towel and a Noni juice kiosk. Some will receive Ricky Ricardo conga drums to entertain the norteamericanos while we slip our capitalist magic slowly into their veins.
Beach umbrella concession and car hops at expensive hotels will also lure then our of their homes.
If none of these incentives work, you just kill them in the night.
But let's give peace,love and Noni juice a try first.

8/04/2006 08:22:00 AM  
Blogger Habu_3 said...

Victor David Hansen has given us the answer to where we are, which of course we all know already. Morally bankrupt.
But more than than he has given us the year we should be focused on right now: 1938 ... so for all of those bloggers lost in the space time continuum check it out.

http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=ZDBhMzg5Mzk4NjQ5MjM5OTJhZjRjMWQ4OWMzNDhmMzk=

8/04/2006 08:47:00 AM  
Blogger Maj_Gen_Stanley said...

Habu_3 had the following quote:
"The total bill for Venezuela's arms purchases in Russia will exceed $1 billion and includes 24 Sukhoi Su-35 Super Flanker fighter aircraft--a system so advanced that not even the Russian air force has this model in its inventory yet. Based on the famous Su-27 and Su-30MK fighters, the Su-35 is a slightly larger, more powerful, modernized version of its predecessors. It will incorporate the latest in avionics and weapons systems, including a radar system superior to that used by the Indian air force's Su-30MKIs, which defeated U.S. Air Force F-15 and F-16 aircraft in recent joint exercises. It will make Venezuela the big kid on the block in South America and will significantly increase the striking range of the Venezuelan air force. Chávez could conceivably now offer air support against the Americans to his friend Fidel Castro should the United States decide to take action against Cuba in the future."
by Reuben F. Johnson ,Weekly Standard 8/3/06

Hmm, reality check. Obviously a journalist is more qualified on mundane military matters than someone who has been involved in it most of his life. The distance from Venezuela to Cuba must not be a factor, the interdiction of the Caribbean by the US Navy must not be a factor, and that the US Air Force has bases 90 to 150 miles away in South Florida must not be a factor. See Strategypage.com for an account of the "defeat" of us F-15's by the Indian Air Force. Oh yes, (sarcasm ratcheted down a notch) Hugo Chavez's one squadron of Su-35's will successfully fly air cover for Cuba. I also have a large bridge to sell, heirloom, been in the family for years, have to move it to make room for the recently purchased canyon.

8/04/2006 08:50:00 AM  
Blogger Habu_3 said...

Maj_Gen_Stanley
Sir thank you for clarifying the journalist I gave approbation to in my post. I mean how much seat time are those Chavez boys gonna get in those aircraft or simulators(if they have them) and how proficient will they be.
I'll take our air arm every day.
I do think however that Chavez is intent on becoming the new South American as*hole of the decade.

It would be an absolute hoot if we could get a Juan or Gomez to pull a Viktor Belenko and fly one of those babies to Miami. I hope our intel guys are turning some pilots as we blog.

8/04/2006 09:04:00 AM  
Blogger Jamie Irons said...

Cedarford opined:

Next to Jews, no other ethnic group in America is as adept at bending American foreign policy to their own interests as the Cuban Exiles...


Thanks for that.

I feel better now.

Is there such an animal as a Jewish Cuban?

Just asking.

Think of the power to influence American foreign policy!



Jamie Irons

8/04/2006 09:09:00 AM  
Blogger DanMyers said...

Habu,

As you certainly know, it is one thing to possess the equipment, entirely another to use the equipment with skill.

8/04/2006 09:10:00 AM  
Blogger Smacko said...

I do not think the exile community is as ignorant of conditions in Cuba as some think.

In the last decade, my wife has been to Cuba once (Dec '05), her sister twice, her mother twice, her grandmother 4 times.

First it was through Canada, then when US Customs became suspicious through Mexico City, and now the Bahamas.

You can also visit if you belong to a church doing 'missionary' work. It helps to remember the name of the church while being questioned by Cuban customs folks (real story...my mother-in-law blanked out once).

I think Stanley hit on another current in this thread. Cuba is not Iraq. It is laughable to compare the two in any sense. It's a friggen island for gods sake, 90 miles off the coast here. Shows that you can't put your template down and are forced to see everything through the 'Doctor Doom (tm) D-Ray Glasses'.

Most likely it will be FedGov that decides how to deal with the various personal and business (US Sugar) claims against Cuba.

8/04/2006 09:17:00 AM  
Blogger exhelodrvr said...

Habu_3,
I am not familiar with the Indian AF vs USAF scrimmage, but I would be careful with reading too much into it. Typically those tend to be slanted towards the home team.

I have thought that, following the collapse of the USSR, the best policy would have been to completely open up relations with Cuba.

8/04/2006 09:23:00 AM  
Blogger Raoul Ortega said...

I don't get it. Palestinians carry around keys and their Euro-Progressive mouthpieces find nothing wrong with the idea that they should be given everything they claim to have lost in '48 or '67 or whenever. Why shouldn't the same standard apply to Cubans?

Oh, right, they're gusanos. Nevermind.

8/04/2006 09:27:00 AM  
Blogger Buddy Larsen said...

Hugo is also applying for a soon-open seat on the UN security council. Competition is Guatemala. I flew in and out of Guatamela a bit back in the 80s, and used to wander around looking at a squadron of P-51 Mustangs the Guatemalan AF had nearby (gosh the 80s were a long time ago). Painted up in Brit-style jungle camo. Gorgeous airplane, maybe the best lines ever.

8/04/2006 09:29:00 AM  
Blogger Utopia Parkway said...

It would be an absolute hoot if we could get a Juan or Gomez to pull a Viktor Belenko and fly one of those babies to Miami. I hope our intel guys are turning some pilots as we blog.

Can't we just buy one? I'm sure the Ruskies would happily sell one to us.

Next to Jews, no other ethnic group in America is as adept at bending American foreign policy to their own interests as the Cuban Exiles.

Better watch out C4, those Judeo-Cubanos are going to come and take your house. I'm sure they have the key.

Nobody has mentioned the best upside here: Cuban cigars will be legal again.

8/04/2006 09:38:00 AM  
Blogger Buddy Larsen said...

Look out, here come the JewCuboweed!

8/04/2006 09:41:00 AM  
Blogger Habu_3 said...

Budddy,
that P-51 was a beautiful aircraft. My eye was always drawn to the Spitfire as a thing of beauty.
But my backgound draws inexorably to the bent wing bird, the F-4U Corsair. Ugly in comparison but what a bad bird.

8/04/2006 09:43:00 AM  
Blogger ppab said...

Habu:

re: moral bankruptcy

Moral bankruptcy can refer to the state of a consensus, whether it is morbidly naive or tragically anomic. The problem, as Wretchard described it, is our "sensory organs." Surely they are disconnected from old market shares; are these shares cultural and ideological as well as financial?

The defining images of our time may be entirely obscured because of this disconnection; skepticism and criticism seem to define many people's outlooks, but so too does faith. How much fidelity this anecdote has with any idea of a "broader" thought in our society may be evident in 2006 and 2008. Until then, I'm unsure there are any functioning sensory organs in the age of Information; that doesn't mean its a bad thing. There may very well be a consensus, but perhaps criticism of the consensus sells better than affirmation. That might be a good thing too, even if the people carrying it out are despicable.

No one source of input means no chance of subverting the centralization, and subversion is popular in both the soft forms of the Daily Show and South Park. This may be a new structure, not a cycle of decline or ascent. Americans are not stupid; we may see its 1938 and may want to change our course; the bottleneck is the politicians.

Here's to Rice/Gingrich administrations in 08.

8/04/2006 09:43:00 AM  
Blogger Habu_3 said...

Utopia Parkway,
maybe we could buy one. but them where's the romance, the book and movie rights, t shirt sales of anew Juan/Gomez/American hero?

I understand they just moved Lenin..maybe, just maybe we could lend them Jimma Cawta as a lay in for the tourists?

8/04/2006 09:48:00 AM  
Blogger Habu_3 said...

bloodydarkpastryman,
i'm gonna have to assimilate your post with a reread and a conjure or two but I do like you ticket in '08 but I'd reverse the order. Newt in the big chair.
I even a bit wobbly, at this time on Condi, but only because of her retrograde learning curve in the ME. But by '08 she might be SO damn good all over the place with her experience and knowledge that she'd be a real dandy.
You know I read one interview with her years ago where she stated her "perfect" job would be the Commissioner of the NFL..wonder where she is on that today?

8/04/2006 09:56:00 AM  
Blogger Smacko said...

As for the Cuban exiles having to much influence on US foriegn policy.

Thems the breaks in a Democracy. If the Cuban exile community was based in Texas or NY, they would not have the clout to do anything.

The Cubans have clout becuase thier vote can balance out the Palm Beach Jewish retirees. This leaves the rest of the state in play for either side.

I guess....gasp.....C4 is right! It is the JOOOS fault all along!

8/04/2006 10:04:00 AM  
Blogger ppab said...

Habu:

I'd agree on the big-chair, tho the opposite wouldn't dissuade. Condi is thinking pretty big picture with her state dept reforms. As Bolton said, its not often a secretary of state calls for "revolution."

The new state dept will be pretty interesting to watch - the emphasis on leaving corrupt politics in the capital and connecting directly with the population's woes sounds ambitious and perhaps is a shrewd change of procedure.

Its also worth pointing out that such a reform may be tallied under the "event which subverts the idea of the state," in that it recognizes the value, the practicality of avoiding the bureaucratic games that pass for "progress" ever since the cold war ended. I just wonder what these policies will actually look like. Are they going to be mini berlin airlifts done in the face of some blustering politician eager for higher margins on his NGO plenty? Or just talking with mayors instead of prime ministers?

To get back on topic, that new state dept. strategy sounds apt for a transitional Cuba - and for that matter Africa and Latin America as well, no?

8/04/2006 10:11:00 AM  
Blogger rufus said...

From what I've read, the USAF wasn't allowed to use it's over the horizon weapons in that Indian exercise. That would be like forcing a Marine Sniper to lay down his rifle, and engage in a knife-fight in a telephone booth (with the smallest knife.) Stand-off weapons is what we do.

Guys, this has very little significance on the world stage (other than the fact that they could probably produce quite a bit of ethanol, somewhere down the road.)

8/04/2006 10:14:00 AM  
Blogger whit said...

Jay Nordlinger has an interesting reprint in NRO today. It was a book review from about three years ago.

Not necessarily a pretty picture when Castro goes. Reminds me of the problems with East Germany.
On Cuban Society:
The country today, says Falcoff, is nothing like the one exiles left, not only 40 years ago, but 30, 20. “Everything — political culture, habits of work, expectations, even notions of national identity and everyday speech — is completely different and cannot be transformed overnight.” Cuba is so wrecked materially, socially, and psychologically that it makes, say, Bulgaria seem like a piece of cake. Many analysts have noted the similarities between it and Ceausescu’s Romania — even Saddam’s Iraq, whose downfall is said to have given Castro such a jolt.

On the private property issue:
"In a chapter on property, we learn that, by 1988, the regime had acquired 92 percent of Cuba’s agricultural land. This is to be compared with only 6 percent in (old) Bulgaria, 8 percent in (old) Poland, and 14 percent in the USSR itself. Castro’s government has been expropriating — stealing — since its inception. One of the headaches of the “morning after” will be the settlement of claims. U.S. business took a rude hit when Castro took over, in 1959. Washington certified almost 6,000 claims, whose aggregate value is now $6.5 billion. And if that is “not enough to keep U.S. diplomats busy, there are also more than 1 million Cuban-Americans (or their heirs) who have lost property in Cuba since 1959.” What about them?

Cuba is in no position to pay anybody anything, with its people hungry. The country is poorer than most people know. Falcoff reviews the experience of Eastern Europe and (once-Marxist) Nicaragua in coping with property claims, analyzing a variety of options. None of them is promising."


What worries me, is that "Cuber" will be our East Germany and Uncle Sam will be financing the reunification.

8/04/2006 10:22:00 AM  
Blogger rufus said...

And, of course, the Cee-gars!

8/04/2006 10:23:00 AM  
Blogger whit said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

8/04/2006 10:29:00 AM  
Blogger whit said...

Sorry about the bad link in previous post. Try this one.

BTW - Yes, Jamie Irons, there are Jews in Cuba as well as exiled in South Florida, where they are known as "Jewbans."

8/04/2006 10:31:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

What's the current over/under in online betting?

8/04/2006 10:40:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

In Northern CA, they're known as "liberals," or, worse yet, "Boxer Voters."

8/04/2006 10:43:00 AM  
Blogger whit said...

Doug: You're listening to Rush aren't you?

He's talking about Congressman Charlie Rangell, D, New York who has equated Guantamo Bay and US policies with Fidel Castro's totalitarianism.

Rush reminds us that this calumny comes from the Democrat in line to Chair the House Ways and Means Committee.

8/04/2006 10:45:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

Charlie Rangel threatens to resign of the Dems don't take back the House.
(And is Disgusted by the INSENSITIVITY of the worms dancing in the streets waiting for Fidel's death.)

8/04/2006 10:57:00 AM  
Blogger Dan said...

"They didn't know much about the exact conditions within the country, but suckered Bush and his neocons into believing it would be a cakewalk, Iraq was just aching to be not only Bush's secular democratic pal, but his "special friend" Israel's best buddy. They spun that people would cheer the American liberators, have to discourage their daughters from hooking up with the wonderful troops, oceans of cheap oil would issue forth, the Ba'athists would humbly accept their personal destruction after losing their jobs --and of course, that the Iraqis would annoint the Exiles their just, rightful rulers by acclaimation."

That would have to go into the Guinness book of world records as the longest string of consecutive straw men ever to be found in nature.

8/04/2006 10:58:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

Dancing Worms!

8/04/2006 11:00:00 AM  
Blogger Buddy Larsen said...

Castro's regime murdered copiously for years--there's film--it was on cable a day ago--of the open-stadium show-trials where the trussed defendants stand before tens of thousands roaring "A La Pared!", referring to the wall where the firing squads worked.

Who was killed off? It started with captured Batistanos but then segued into anyone who disagreed with the Party.

Yet our tolerant humanists on the left just love Fidel and La Revolucion.

No explanation for that other than what VDH has for John Dingell, who a few days ago "can't pick sides" between Israel & Hez: To use your moral judgment, you first have to *have* some.

Maybe the Left loves him because the Right loathes him?

Hope that's it. Hope it's not some sort of revolutionary thrill at the murdering of political opponents as a 'validating performance art'.

But we know deep down that that's exactly what it is, don't we.

8/04/2006 11:11:00 AM  
Blogger PossumTater said...

dun gots back frum da nu lamfillwit da "daisy" tater. then ole BardyardTater say he want sum.beings how bardyardiz a sugar talk'in i steps aside.
but naw i dun hered dat Feedel ez in a hurt. my thumper wuz be jum'in sice i dun hurd frum da pouch ta nowe dat dem cuban ceegar butts are righteous. recon i can keep hop'in dat he die soun.
anyways did da joos give down to da 'bolla? Olmert ain't gotz da cojones of PeeWeeTater,a nd da be like ole raisins..shame.
well i dun wurrry about it be'in 1938 all again ..ole HE-Tater told me thing uz lean. hope not..anyway i gets mz 'daisy over in the bush and ......

8/04/2006 11:24:00 AM  
Blogger whit said...

Ptater!
DO NOT go near Wausau, Florida this weekend. Repeat DO NOT go near Wausau, Florida.

On second thought, you better not read this.
http://www.chipleybugle.com/sponsors/PossumFestival/possumfestival.htm

8/04/2006 11:37:00 AM  
Blogger Buddy Larsen said...

man, that Possum Queen is some kinda healthy-lookin!
(jeez, you celtics are a freaking mess !)

8/04/2006 11:42:00 AM  
Blogger whit said...

Possum Tater:
It says the Voluteer Fire Department will be serving food at the Possum Festival. Well, a word to the wise, What kind of food do you think they're serving? hint: It's a "possum festival." STAY AWAY!
*****************
Buddy:
Celts?!!! This ain't Wisconsin, man. This is North Florida, which is to say, Old Dixie. These are good 'ol English, Scots and Irish. Besides, I think she's purty.

8/04/2006 11:51:00 AM  
Blogger rufus said...

OT, but I felt a need To Share.

Turns out, Green Helmet (from Qana photos) is a Mortician, and was seen in the preceeding days driving around in a refrigerated truck full of "Dead Bodies."

BTW, a refrigerated truck was seen leaving Qana that morning.

8/04/2006 11:56:00 AM  
Blogger Rem870 said...

Hey Whit, you from 'round Wausau? I'm just up the road. I plan on takin' the young 'uns down there this weekend - doubt if the wife will join us.

Anyway, DanMyers said, Habu,

As you certainly know, it is one thing to possess the equipment, entirely another to use the equipment with skill.


Until recently I worked as a design engineer for a defense contractor. We specialized in equipment used by the SEALS and other special forces. Egypt and the UAE were also clients of ours. We found that the equipment we sold to those guys was never kept operational - they were simply used as parade pieces. I've no idea if the Venezuelans will act that way or not, but it is worth keeping in mind.

8/04/2006 11:58:00 AM  
Blogger PossumTater said...

whit,
man yu dun me a fv'r iain't nv'r'ing ablin to pay yuz back.how does ya figger dis tho..

"Also this year, along with the Possum Auction and Quilt Auction, there will be a special dedication of the Possum Palace and the Wausau Memorial Gardens Cemetery."

I means deez folk ded'cat'in part of a cemetary wit soum kinda "Possum Palace" ireck'unda be smok'in up da wildwood weed.
juz da same i be sta'in out dat place....she iz kinda purdy ..wunder if she's shares her chaw?

8/04/2006 12:01:00 PM  
Blogger Buddy Larsen said...

whit, keerect me if I'm wrong, but aren't the English-Scots-Irish the main strain of the Celts?

8/04/2006 12:04:00 PM  
Blogger ppab said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

8/04/2006 12:06:00 PM  
Blogger ppab said...

God Bless P'tater

8/04/2006 12:07:00 PM  
Blogger PossumTater said...

whit ..
yuo recon dat Possum Palace got showers and Zyclon-B ? I juz gittin da word to cousins inda area, tho da pretty smart..Spudtater eats frum da jr. colage trash can ..he be smart

8/04/2006 12:10:00 PM  
Blogger whit said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

8/04/2006 12:16:00 PM  
Blogger Habu_3 said...

rem870..
i spent some time in iran before the revolution and the Whirligig mechanics would tell me that the iranians always figured the big pieces were the most important.
consequently they'd leave out cotter pins etc, since they were small and insignificant. whenever it can time to test fly one our helo drivers learned real quick to hover about a foot of the ground for a-long-time before going up.....now they want nukes ..they are fanatic weirdos.

8/04/2006 12:20:00 PM  
Blogger Habu_3 said...

whit,
all my kinfolk are from Rogersville,TN, Blue Ridge,GA and migrated to Atlanta in the 00's of the last century.
Got my momma side from Alabama.

I've been reading a fascinating book on Nathan Bedford Forrest by a surgeon who fought with him.
"That Devil Forrest" by John Allan Wyeth. Wyeth's own story is interesting. He died in 1922. The book is well written and heavily documented.
Forrest, you will see, was a genius at warfare.
Lee was asked after the war who his best general was.
"A man I never met" was Lee's reply. That man was Forrest. Highly recommended.

8/04/2006 12:30:00 PM  
Blogger Buddy Larsen said...

the curse of oil--no need to develop industry. Cotter pins? We don't need no steenkin cotter pins!

8/04/2006 12:31:00 PM  
Blogger Buddy Larsen said...

I believe Forrest was the one who escaped a personal encirclement by yanking a Union infantryman up onto the saddle with him and galloping through the rest of the enemy before they could recover their senses to shoot anyway.

8/04/2006 12:35:00 PM  
Blogger Habu_3 said...

buddy larsen,
you get the first cuban cigar.
Forrest did indded do that and that was immediately after a Yankee had pushed his rifle into Foresst side and shot him! It didn't hit anything vital but damn it had to smart.
This book is full of his audacity and cunning. At Brices Crossroads he was outnumbered and outgunned by a factor of 4, and he pulled off what is considerd to be one of the most classic battles of daring in history.

8/04/2006 12:44:00 PM  
Blogger Habu_3 said...

buddy larsen,
you get the first cuban cigar.
Forrest did indded do that and that was immediately after a Yankee had pushed his rifle into Foresst side and shot him! It didn't hit anything vital but damn it had to smart.
This book is full of his audacity and cunning. At Brices Crossroads he was outnumbered and outgunned by a factor of 4, and he pulled off what is considerd to be one of the most classic battles of daring in history.

8/04/2006 12:45:00 PM  
Blogger Habu_3 said...

you know i'd just do better staying Possumtater. At least there would be a built in excuse for spelling .... but really there just typos.

the double post was a computer glich.

8/04/2006 12:48:00 PM  
Blogger hdgreene said...

I thought the Government owned the land and property in Cuba (or stole it last).

It all has a certain market value which, in a stable, free market society will rapidly grow.

The government could carry out land reform by selling the land to the folks who occupy it -- the land becomes the security. The government buys the land from the folks who previously owned it. They pay the previous owners with government bonds. The bonds can be placed in banks and used as collateral for business investment on the island.

I beleive land reform was handled in a similar way on Taiwan -- as part of an overall development plan. The previous land owners were encouraged to become capitalist. It locks a lot of folks into the system of reform because their property rights and bond holdings will depend on its success.

Of course, this assumes a sensible and competent government committed to the capitalist path. But with that, success is likely.

The more likely outcome: the commie thieves will steal everything in sight. Things are never as simple as they seem. Sometimes they are simpler!

8/04/2006 12:57:00 PM  
Blogger Cedarford said...

Wretchard writes: (Bush stated" "We will support you in your effort to build a transitional government in Cuba committed to democracy, and we will take note of those, in the current Cuban regime, who obstruct your desire for a free Cuba".

Heck, with North Korea, Iran, Lebanon, Syria, Somalia, Venezuela and Iraq all perking up one more won't matter.


Ummmm, given the performance of "The Decider Kinda Guy" so far, is it unreasonable for me to hope for Fidel's "mini-recovery" --so we are not bamboozled by Exiles into launching an amphibious landing into another soon to be notorious Bay on the coast to "liberate the noble, freedom-loving grateful Cuban People"????

Come on Castro, bad and evil as you are, just linger another 2 1/2 years, baby!

Just let us get an intelligent President with sound judgement and ability to articulate in office 1st. One who is not a kneejerk Exile supporter....After 46 years, what's another 2 1/2?

8/04/2006 01:26:00 PM  
Blogger Buddy Larsen said...

Oh, for SURE, let's not have any o that "kneejerk" goin on.

8/04/2006 01:37:00 PM  
Blogger Jamie Irons said...

Something this Jewban finds worth fighting for...

(Keep scrolling all the way down!)


Jamie Irons

8/04/2006 01:43:00 PM  
Blogger Habu_3 said...

cedarford,

there won't be a military invasion. it'll be a tourist invasion with fat cellulite women in bikinis laying around. the old men will play dominos and drink rum.
then we hit them with a Shakira concert and personal appearences by the Hooter Girls Beach Volley Ball Team...then the Jenna Jameson's of the world will invade.

The troops will lay down their arms and embrace the nortemaericanos. Our baseball teams will expand to include a game a week in Havanna with free give-a-ways like..Noni drink or Yoohoo.
As soon as enough dollars are circulating in the ecomomy..well we'll have 'em.
Nascar will follow along with a Possum Festival..
Chill bro, it's all good.

8/04/2006 01:45:00 PM  
Blogger MrKufr said...

Cedarford
Why dont you ask the political prisoners and even those thrown in Cuban prisons just for being gay to linger 'just another 2 1/2 years'?

8/04/2006 01:47:00 PM  
Blogger Habu_3 said...

cedarford,

or ask those just thirsting to be free ..or for a Noni juice?

we'll airlift tons of Nair for the women and spandex.
and Chebrolet parts for da cars.
they'll be overwhelmed with the old time Cuban machismo (gold chains mandatory)

8/04/2006 01:56:00 PM  
Blogger Habu_3 said...

I am personally greatful to our host. I have been blogging for a few months now and have yet to see the word paradigm used.
It is a credit to all the contributors.

8/04/2006 02:00:00 PM  
Blogger whit said...

The late Governor of the State of Florida, Lawton Chiles was taking questions after addressing a National Press Club Luncheon when he was asked about a "new paradigm." He began his reply, "I don't know how many sides a paradigm has but..."

8/04/2006 02:07:00 PM  
Blogger phil g said...

Holy Smoking Babes!!!
Thanks Jamie, that little jolt will get me through the rest of this @#$% Friday work day just fine.

8/04/2006 02:08:00 PM  
Blogger Clyde said...

My thoughts are similar to James Kielland's. It may be kind of like what happened to the East Germans after the Wall fell back in '89. The reunification of Germany brought Wessies into the old East Germany as economic carpetbaggers, while the Ossies had high unemployment rates, which they hadn't had under communism. Similarly, the Americanized Cubans would have much more capital to invest in revitalizing Cuba, which would mean that they would reap much of the rewards. They might not be able to reclaim their old family plantations and homesteads, but they might have the wherewithal to buy out the interlopers living there now. The ingredients are there for a lot of resentment of the Cubans for the Cuban-Americans if they come back.

8/04/2006 03:02:00 PM  
Blogger NahnCee said...

The gaming industry in the U.S. has been eying Cuba hungrily for years, with thoughts of "old Havana" dancing like sugar plums in their eyes.

Given the slightest opportunity at all, folks from Vegas and Atlantic City will whooosh into Havana and Cuba in a way that will make the Christmas tsunami look like a piker.

Given the amounts of cash waiting and wanting to be thrown at Cuba, I can't imagine that anyone will have the strength to turn it down after Fidel's late and lamented departure.

8/04/2006 03:16:00 PM  
Blogger Cedarford said...

MrKufr said...
Cedarford
Why dont you ask the political prisoners and even those thrown in Cuban prisons just for being gay to linger 'just another 2 1/2 years'?


Ummm, well, frankly - because I put America's interests over Cubans?

As Wretchard intimated, our plate is full.

Iraq seems to be headed south.

Elections in November.

Plenty of other messes to fix.

Why even think, given our present leader's bungling, that he can do better with another self-made mess?

And it may be moot as Granma says today that Fidel is OK and will be resuming his duties soon.

It is also important, in Latin America's eyes, to avoid an overbearing America eager & ready to charge in and do yet another Yanqui Imperialist (in their eyes) intervention. "We're invading to save you, our noble, freedom-loving friends!" "And to ensure you sell your bananas to the right company."

Best we sit back if Castro goes, watch for a few years to see how the Transition happens, talk with Mexico, Brazil, Venezuela, Columbia, Panama, Bahamas, Spain, among others - on how things are shaking out..and begin determining our approach once we have a very clear picture of how the People of Cuba feel. And when we ascertain who our allies are in the Western Hemisphere, if we wish to influence matters there. And any action, if we and Latin American countries think it must be done - had best wait on a competent American President and Administration who hopefully has ended the Iraq mess by then.

And avoid the political pressure from the Exiles...who at best should be only peripheral to events in Cuba. They are all US citizens now, not Cuban ones. Most have no intention of doing a Reverse Mariel boatlift and streaming back. What they want is less important than the wishes of the Cuban people.

Compared to the risk of America rushing in and having all of Latin America turned against us by us being duped into another imperialist misadventure - I consider the fate of Cuba's gays and prisoners as secondary to OUR interests as NORK/Saudi/Egyptian/Moldavan gays, and political criminals in their prisons - or the lives of the millions of Congolese and Darfurans busy killing one another.

8/04/2006 03:18:00 PM  
Blogger For Freedom said...

It's about time Fidel kicks the bucket. But Fidel is just a sideshow.

Anxiety time. Nasty rumors. Watch Iran. August 22 will be here soon. Is the West sleeping? Is this 1938 or 1939?


Lighting up the sky on August 22



World War

8/04/2006 03:52:00 PM  
Blogger gumshoe1 said...

wretchard -

"Heck, with North Korea, Iran, Lebanon, Syria, Somalia, Venezuela and Iraq all perking up one more won't matter."


with the rumors of "Soviet" arms
arriving in Somalia,
is there a reason you've left Monsiuer Putin's fiefdom off the list?

8/04/2006 06:45:00 PM  
Blogger Buddy Larsen said...

Sri Lanka, too. The Tamils are blowin' and goin'.

8/04/2006 07:05:00 PM  
Blogger The Mad Fiddler said...

(Just to refresh my memory I did a net-search on the Su-35, found a lot of good info at www.globalsecurity.org)

Maj_Gen_Stanley posted an alarming comment that mentioned Venezuela’s purchase of Russian Su-35. I don’t challenge his sources, but I would point out that the USAF F-15s and F-16s he described as having been defeated by the Indian Air Force Su-30MKIs are designs that have been deployed for several decades now. There are US fighters deployed now that can take on the Sukhoi-35 very comfortably.

The airframe of the Sukhoi-35 is a variant of the much older Sukhoi-27, and first became operational in 1988. Canard wings near the nose help give it substantially greater maneuverability than most other designs of its era.

I live in a region with several military air bases that are home to new squadrons of the F-22 Raptor, which has advanced avionics, vectored thrust maneuverability, and multi-target simultaneous management capability, that are at least comparable to the Su-35. Moreover, they’ve been designed from the start with much more advanced stealth features.

I guess my point is only that Hugo Chavez is not so much aiming to try to overmatch the U.S. as to overwhelm any neighbors in the Southern hemisphere.

It’s a situation that certainly bears watching. It brings to mind Hitler’s brazen announcements that Germany was no longer bound by the restrictions of the Treaty of Versailles that England and France imposed at the end of World War I. He had already been clandestinely rebuilding his airforce, and working with the munitions manufacturers of several other countries to develop new arms. But the construction of capital ships is a little trickier to conceal...

Look for the tell-tale signs:

Is Chavez talking about needing more room for Venezuelans?
Is there a prominent irridentist theme to his speeches?
Is he massing troops on his borders?
Are Venezuelan armed forces “assisting” in military conflicts outside of Venezuela?

Those might sound tongue-in-cheek, but a lot of people mistakenly dismissed Hitler as a clown for a long time. Those of us who have grown up with television are accustomed to seeing performances in extreme close-up, and TV-actors are trained to minimize their gestures because they know how much those Extreme CloseUps magnify things. Hitler and many other political manipulators were trained in their gestures and performances for an audience that was watching from much further away. Their gestures HAD to be broad, like for a stage actor. (Look at newsreels of Huey Long for an interesting comparison.)

The most disturbing aspect of all Chavez adventures is the allegations of hanky-panky with Hizb’allah.

8/04/2006 08:46:00 PM  
Blogger The Mad Fiddler said...

Hmmm. Little more research indicates the Sukhoi-30 series does include thrust-vectoring engines for greater agility.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Su-30

8/04/2006 09:12:00 PM  
Blogger rufus said...

Fiddler, as I stated, earlier, the competition didn't allow the F-15's to use their stand-off weapons systems. That's what we do for a living. It was most definitely not a real-world test, more like an acrobatic flying competition.

8/05/2006 02:45:00 AM  
Blogger quickshield said...

The planning to save cuba as a devolved socialist state is underway. With or without fidel, the socialist international is planning to make a stand. The key player in this effort will be bobo chavez. The responsibility for this front will be marked by two distinct characterizations.
1. Is the current mobilization which is based on ad nauseum repetion of imminent US invasion.
2. Gitmo detainees are the target of liberation.

bobo chavez, is a piece of the unfolding chess board, every day of every week he chirps aloud some comments or another, this incessant chirping is pure threat posturing, its designed to let everyone know that bobo is on the board as a real player, give him the status of a Knight in a real chess game and essentially you'll get an idea of how he will be used.

The game is on, it has its own momentum, it will be played out because the alliances of interest have elected to cast thier momentum at this time.

What The US should do now in anticipation of the game unfolding.
1. Remove the top 60 terrorist from gitmo to secure locations, so that any attacks deprive the architects of one of their main goals.
2. Assume bobo and cuba have silkworm missles to knock out complacent US naval forces around cuba.
3. Monitor every thing leaving venezuela, keep Air force assets on the mission, at the point fidel dies, raul will do something really stupid, bobo will be the insertion factor in one form or another.
bobo will act according to all the chirping he is doing. These games have thier own time lines, maybe days, weeks or months....but the game is on so be prepared.

8/06/2006 09:39:00 AM  
Blogger quickshield said...

Another fact; is that for some time russian special forces have been disecting the lay of the land. It is the russian forces in cuba, now disguised or portrayed as russian mafia interests, whose responsibility will be to design the liberation plan.

The agreements reached in tehran between bobo and heil dictator, post bobo's trip to see vlad the imposter, guarantee that this troika is the next front in the war against Liberty.

8/06/2006 09:53:00 AM  
Blogger Maj_Gen_Stanley said...

Actually, Mad Fiddler, I was being sarcastic and quoting a journalist (Reuben F. Johnson of the Weekly Standard) who believed SU-35's were going to be flying air cover over Cuba. My sarcasm was prompted by the idea that people would take the journalist seriously, whereas he was clearly geographically challenged.

My points were:

1) the SU-35 does not have the range to reach Cuba unless refuled air-to-air or via some intermediate island. Barring any agreements, Venezuela does not have air-to-air refueling capability.

2) there are only 24 SU-35's; the numbers are too few to cover an island the size of Cuba 24x7. When those 24 are gone that's it. The next nearest ones are in Russia.

3) expect interdiction between Cuba and Venezuela by the US Navy. Even if the USN Doesn't, the Venezuelans have to accept that it might happen. Engagements would take place over open water where there aren't many witnesses.

4) transit and turnaround time from Venezuela to Cuba (remember, we need a roundtrip here) would be fairly extended. Compare this to NAS Key West, some 90 miles from Cuba, or various USAF bases along the Gulf Coast.

5) As has been pointed out by others, the US/India engagement was not a "straight-up" fight, but was weighted heavily in India's favor. Check www.strategypage.com for more details.

Not covered by me (but others):

1) having the equipment is one thing, knowing how to use it properly is another. Manfred von Richtofen said it best: "It's not the crate, it's the man in the crate that's important." Chavez's pilots may have the SU-35s (have they actually been delivered?) but how well trained are they, and that includes realistic combat-like training (e.g. Top Gun and Red Flag), and not just how to take-off and land. And they would be competing against AWACS backed fighters with stand-off weapons flown by pilots with a lot of experience.

2) what happens if the SU-35s are based in Cuba? Aside from them becoming expensive piles of junk about an hour after an attack on US forces or US territory.

Likewise of concern (as also covered) is an attack on Gitmo from Cuba. Cuba does have some mechanized troops. Of course they'd have to prepare for the attack, and deal with their own minefields, but I suppose it is possible they are ready to do just that.

Bottom line: Journalist Reuben F. Johnson does not know what he is talking about, and flaunts his ignorance as a badge of honor. And do you think Chavez would risk his pretty toys like that?

8/06/2006 05:52:00 PM  

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