Fortunes of War
Some really interesting headlines from Pajamas Media. The most interesting from the oeprational view was the reported heliborne insertion into the Bekaa. From the political point of view, make sure to read about the mysterious and long gap between the IAF bombing and building collapse. I knew the Hezbollah were low. If what's implied is true, could they be that low?
13:30 PDT Israel hits Beirut - Damascus road at border with Syrian border. (Ynet )
13:20 PDT Lebanon Opens Fire: “Lebanese army soldiers opened fire on IDF helicopters attempting to land in the Bekaa Valley Sunday night and prevented them from landing, according to Lebanese sources quoted by Reuters News Agency.” (INN)
1:57 PDT The Qana Gap: “IDF continuing to check difficult incident at Qana village, and attempting to account for strange gap between time of the strike on the building – midnight – and eight in the morning, when the building collapsed.” ( Ynet )
10:40 PDT The Qana Rocket Battery: “Chief of the IDF Operations Branch, Maj. Gen. Gadi Eisnkot, said in a press conference that “the IDF operated against terrorist target in Qana. The village has been used, since the onset of the confrontation, as a refuge for terror and a launch site for some 150 rockets at Israel, in some 30 volleys.” (Ynet)
Update
Haaretz and Jpost are both reporting that the IAF has agreed to suspend air ops for 48 hours over "over southern Lebanon" while the Qana incident is investigated. It's apparently linked to this: "Ereli said that Israel will coordinate with the United Nations to allow a 24-hour period of safe passage for all residents of south Lebanon who want to leave the region."
posted by wretchardthecat at 7/30/2006 02:56:00 PM
87 Comments:
As I read the tea leaves, other plans and efforts are in action in support of an Israeli military campaign plan, long written and modified on the fly as all people do.
All the media reporting today seems to miss all this. Their focus is on the Lebanon cease fire stuff.
The call up of another three Israeli divisions says much. And the reported attack yesterday in the Bekka Valley by an Israeli F-15I (http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/israel/f-15i.htm) says the big and long range guns are out. These airplanes are national assets not to be wasted in normal warfare.
I have apparently missed the egregious acts that leave many to believe that the IDF has lost it’s Mojo. Seems that they are keeping their rear in sight and taking on objectives in careful engagements. They have run a column of tanks up to Beirut before and it didn’t turn out so good. The Bekaa valley is another thing and they appear to be probing it and making an effort to clean up it’s major defenses piece meal. Spasm? Maybe, but this is set piece warfare folks, it’s a campaign and the IDF seems to be doing it their way, which is their strength. They will maintain aerial surveillance throughout any duration and the civies and the jihadis will break like oil and water. Watch the push pins on the map move then annihilate. Rinse and repeat.
t this IS NOT set piece warfare folks
Annoy Mouse: I agree, the IDF has not been defeated or degraded in any way. However, what I think people are sensing is that Israel is starting to loose the battle over the narrative. The original casus belli, the kidnapping of the two soldiers, seems to have been long lost in the smoke screen of civilian casualties. Anyway read my latest post at transitumbra.blogspot.com, I explain my thoughts in more detail there.
It's the television age and people have just lost their minds and apparently have no concept of how variable conflicts may be conducted.
It's actually pathetic.
Our saving grace is that the Bush Administration is not given to panic and I doubt if the IDF are anywhere close to despairing over how everything is going.
The Hez are playing from an old script that used to work fairly well.
It ain't going to work this time.
There is no antiseptic, televesion friendly clean and simple way to go forward.
Lets just see how this plays out over an extended period.
So, AM, if I understand your thinking correctly, while the IAF has not been able to shut down HB, while flying 400 sorties a day, with survaillence and ground spotters, after stopping for a day or two, they will have better intel and really be able to kick ass?
Oil and water, I think it's more like sea and salt, myself.
Is it just me or should you be passing the pipe now?
Thanks for the link Xwraith. But the Israeli’s lost the ‘narrative’ a long time ago. To play to such perception without fruit is to stay in the cave and play puppeteer while the fire and the source of the shadows pass outside. The US itself has lost its ability to control the ‘narrative’ and we, like Israel will wage a lonely vigil. The US is a robust economy and military superpower that is surrounded by the widest and the deepest of oceans. Little Israel is surrounded by the widest and deepest of enemies sworn to their destruction. Our concerns to win the hearts and minds have now become the entrails in which to ensnare and strangle ourselves. We need to get off of the notion that war can be precise and antiseptic when our enemies use their own vulgarity and our humanity against us.
Given the tragic events of the day, why not take a break? If the Hezbos violate the ceasefire, then Israel resumes the bombing, and the Hezbos look bad (except to their allies).
We can also move back to the negotiating issue of how to get the Hezbos to leave So. Lebanon or disarm. And they will do neither. Also, talk of who sends peacekeepers and what they are supposed to do (other than be cover for future hezbos attacks). The rhythm of previous Israel wars has been for Israel to beat-the-clock. Maybe start-stop-start, etc. will work in Israel's favor this time.
rufus,
The IDF claims to have killed a couple of hundred HB.
Even if they are short by half or a third, that is not a "bunch".
Even a thousand would only be 10% casualties, KIA. The Mahdi Army and the IRG have more than matched that with recruits on their way to the Front.
It is unfortunate, but the IDF has killed but a "few" of the HB combatants, by their own count.
GO HERE NOW!!!!
http://pajamasmedia.com/
AMAZING INFO ABOUT THE QANA PROTEST AT PAJAMAS MEDIA...
HUGH BANNER PUT UP IN BEIRUT TODAY ABOUT QANA?
HOW IS THIS POSSIBLE IN BEIRUT LET ALONE NEW YORK!
What a horrible mistake for Israel (and the US), to stop fighting. They surrendered in the propaganda war, that's the biggest mistake. All wars cause civilian casualties, they should have been saying. Stopping now is a (false) admission that the UN and media are right, that we just have to surrender to terrorists the first time civilians are bombed.
rufus,
Right let's bring aid to the Hezbos. I think the Israel policy is simply to wear down the hezbos. Unfortunately the price of that has been the continuing missile strikes into Israel.
Nelson Ascher, who can't get on due some glitch in Blogger, asks me to post this for him:
An incident like this was bound to happen sooner or later in this war. It is ironic, and for the Hezbollah, lucky, that it took place in Qana (a place, by the way, about which our dear Robert Fisk has written so much and with such a sado-masochistic gusto: wait for his next article). In the earlier occasion, Peres was taken by surprise and had to call operation Grapes of Wrath off. The least I can expect from the Israeli military, politicians and diplomats is that they were prepared for such a thing and are, this time, ready to argue their case forcefully. Otherwise, they’ll have proved themselves to have been quite unprepared to fight the propaganda front. As I said, such an incident was inevitable and, thus, let’s see what happens next, that is, if Israel will be able to change relevantly the precedent set during the earlier Qana episode. From the Arab point of view, “Qana 1” may have been just a welcome, if unexpected, coup. From the Israeli point of view, “Qana 2” cannot be seen except as a trap for which the Israelis must have been ready.
But allow me to touch another, related, subject. I’d say that in any protracted conflict, the real rules are set by the more cruel and/or savage side’s behaviour. If you are much, much stronger and if the conflict is not too long, you can allow yourself the luxury of self-imposed restraints. For instance: in a Mogadishu-like skirmish the US can grant the captured Somalis the full benefit of the Geneva conventions while they, the Somalis, kill some prisoners, mutilate their corpses and exhibit them in public. But in the long run, as it happened during the Pacific War against the Japanese, that won’t last. The same happened in WW2’s Russian front: when one of the sides, it doesn’t really matter which one, decided to kill the other side’s POWs, its own captured soldiers were doomed as well.
Now, we do know about WW2 that there was a serious difference in the ways the Germans treated the Anglo-American POWs and the Soviet ones. We also know that that’s what the Germans could expect to happen them: were they to be captured in the Western front, they’d survive the war in reasonable conditions; were they to be captured in the Easter front, they’d never see their hometowns again. This difference wasn’t accidental and resulted ultimately from the Nazis’ decision to fight total war against the USSR. Knowing that to be captured meant certain death, that this wasn’t, as in WW1, a way out, the individual German soldiers had no choice but to keep on fighting. They also knew that, after the atrocities their own side had perpetrated on the Russian civilians, defeat didn’t mean some rather unpleasant peace, but collective punishment. So they fought on.
This tactics might be called “the burning down of the ships”, that is, a way for one of the sides to assure that its own fighters won’t retreat nor stop fighting, no matter what. Couldn’t we say that this is at least one of the logics behind terrorist atrocities? When you take the WTC down or blow up buses and restaurants in Israel, what is it you are really saying? You’re telling your enemy that there’s nothing you want to negotiate, you assure yourself of his/her undying hatred, and you bet on either total victory or total defeat. And that’s also what your telling the pusillanimous on your own side: “Look, after what we did, they want to kill each and everyone of us and, thus, we too have no other choice but to fight to the bitter end.”
Perhaps Al Qaeda’s, Hamas’ and Hizbollah’s tactics, what we call terrorism, have as their goall less “terrorising” (that is, making them too afraid to go on) the Americans or the Israelis than angering them, that is, convincing most of them to keep on fighting. When, for instance, you call someone a coward on his face, you’re not really trying to convince him to back off, but rather challenging him for a fight. terrorism, atrocities and so on are not, usually, a way of winning wars or of leaving your enemy paralysed or impotent, but actually to force him to fight. And one of the reasons for doing so is also to make the war inevitable for those on your own side who’d rather not fight against a more powerful enemy. In other words: terror is very efficient as a motivating factor for both sides whenever you want to make war inevitable.
Setting a “Qana 2”-like trap works eventually in the same way, that is, it has different functions according to which is the audience. It may, tactically, help to make bring more pressure on the Israelis to stop fighting or to fight more “carefully” (that is, less effectively) while, strategically, it keeps the fires of conflict and the wish for revenge burning among your own followers and backers. Can it be that, when all is said and done, the terrorist’s goal is not so much victory (a victory of which he is not necessarily assured), but rather the continuation of hostilities? I mean: it’s not so much that they’re sure they’ll win, but that they know that if there is no fight then they’ll have no chance of winning at all? That’s their bet: any war, even a unfavourable one, is better than no war at all. And, obviously, there’s no other way of stopping their own “cycle of violence” than defeating them completely.
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
DR,
The oil and water analogy is speculative as long as Hezbollah continues to hinder civilian movement. The diplomatic advantage is that the IDF can reasonably say, “Hey, we gave them 48 hours to leave”. The Hezbollah is still a force to be reckoned with but the “Missile Count” metric has no basis in military doctrine. Morons who buy the line that the IDF is targeting civilians are stupid enough to believe that the CIA initiated 9-11. The Middle East mindset is primitive, superstitious, and unbendingly prone to conspiracy. F the ME street. They are basically hurling skyrockets into the southland and the Israeli populace is annoyed but jaded enough not to panic. Hell, they wet through enough with the WMD threat during Desert Storm. The IDF has some of the best Tactical Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Intelligence-Surveillance-Recognizance in the world and the capability to monitor ground radar, et al, and there is a tremendous advantage to shuffling the deck. See what goes north, south, and what stays. In fact, the only thing that wont be tracked is that which does not move.
Gave up the pipe in high school thanks for asking.
The massive Hezbollah poster of Rice isn't surprising. Their strategy from day 1 has been to use civilian shields to protect themselves.
It's possible Israel planned this too, that if there were large civilian casualties that they would allow a 48 hour cooling period.
What Israel needs to do know is say that bombing starts again in 48 hours or less: we're not responsible for any civilians left in those areas after this. Now is the time for all the bleeding heart liberals to get the civilians out of harm's way, and then shut up.
I sure hope so, rufus, 'cause the "Thunder Run" through Baghdad never did secure the city,
nor did 3.5 years of Occupation.
Damn shame, but right as rain.
"Could they be that low?"
Low enough to repeatedly commit the war crime of using human shields-- standard Hamas/PLO/Hizbollah technique.
Low enough to blow up a building housing women and kids for propaganda purposes?
Can anyone say Muhammad al Durra?
wretchard,
re: Nelson Ascher
Perfect!
Where does restraint fit into his thesis?
Suggestion for Israel: I assume that Hezbo chief Nasrallah, being a certified Islamofascist, has over the years made many speeches and statements. Somewhere along the line he must have expressed support for the worlwide Jihad and specific attacks. Did he ever express support for 911, London subway jihad attacks, Madrid, Bombay, Bali, Belsan, and on and on?
Go find those speeches and publicize them.
Ditto with the Nelson Ascher kudos.
Like to offer a source of academic treatment of a simular subject...
"Progress or Entanglement?"
http://www.inpr.org.tw:9998/
inprc/recent/event106.pdf
The hypocrisy of the world is amazing. Every rocket Hizbollah has launched has been targeted at civilians, and some Israeli children were killed. Yet because of this collateral damage there are calls for Israel to stop.
UN Secretary General went before the Security Council saying that there must be an immediate cease fire. Someone should ask him if the Security Council could just outlaw all war, and ask him why Hizbollah still exists after the Security Council told them years ago to disarm. They could also ask Annan if he thinks all wars should be stopped when civilians are killed, or if he only wants to stop wars Jewish countries are winning.
It's so obvious that everyone just wants Israel to lose.
If the US and Israel buckle now, we'll get lots of terrorist attacks later. That's what triggered bin Laden, after watching the US pull out of Somalia he figured the West was too weak to fight. Drag some bodies on the street or put children's bodies on TV and they fold.
A bombing pause. Now, didn't Lyndon Baines Johnson try that back in 1968?
Hezbolah rather obviously set an "elephant trap" for Israel in South Lebanon. Israel is refusing to step into it.
The USSSR set such a trap for the USA in Central America in the 80's. The US stepped into it - and the Reagan Admin suffered all sorts of home-grown pinko attacks as a result - but Ronald Reagan refused to be deterred from the ultimate objective of winning the Cold War and ultimately did so - and Lt Col Ollie North ultimately turned out to be a damn fine war reporter.
alexis; 5:10 PM
What are you doing interjecting unflattering historical precedent into an otherwise invigoratingly emotive conversation?
Are you a defeatist in need of a medication adjustment, or something?
Remember, this administration can do no wrong…ever…not with education…not with immigration…not in Iraq…not in Lebanon…nothing, no way, no how. And that’s the truth.
The most obvious answer to why this campaign seems so shapeless is that it is. The alternative, that there's a shape which is being concealed, is a hypothesis that can only be sustained for so long.
Part of the IDF's public relations problem is that it doesn't set an expectation. If people knew where this was "going", then they would buck up and await the end of the journey.
We are told contradictory things: the ground op is limited; it will go on as long as necessary. A ceasefire is imminent; the Hezbollah will be defeated. But the limited suspension of air ops is all too real. It's an elephant in the living room, tangible proof that the IDF has blinked. Sure it's limited, but again, it sets the expectation that the IAF will not strike. If it does, everyone will forget the words "limited". That will disappear from memory.
We will soon know, once and for all, whether the IDF has been beaten, politically at least, by the Hezbollah. But it won't mean the end of the war. Only that it will continue, just as soon as the Hez can recover, on an even more bloody basis.
So with a news Blackout, the terrorists would simply have better things to do.
With Honest Reporting
The Public Relations War would quickly be won, and the Real War would be more quickly concluded.
The Treacherous Media are OFTEN little better than the Terrorists, sometimes it's impossible to make the call.
Some here have said the Media should be held harmless:
That is simply Wrong.
Can the Blogosphere turn the Rice Banner into another Rather Document Fiasco?
---
Trying to reach the same level of granularity in a War Zone.
How good can we be now?
Two militants and a child were killed by a US air strike in Iraq today.
___No special session of the Security Council was called.
___No worldwide condemnation from allies was elicited.
___The White House did not caution restraint.
___Secretary Rice did not express her profound regret.
Instead, the government of the United States took the perfectly sensible approach of stating the obvious: "We believe that countless more Iraqis would have been at risk had we not taken immediate action to eliminate this terrorist cell when we discovered their exact location."
Rather than collapsing in fear and getting its skivvies in a knot about Lebanon, this morning, the administration might have permitted the Israeli government the same cover. That would have taken integrity, though, wouldn’t it?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/
20060730/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq
Hmmm ... it occurs to me that people may be putting too much emphasis on the propaganda war. As long as the Americans stay onside, the opinion of the rest of the world is largely irrelevant, as far as the Israelis are concerned. President Bush does not seem to be one to worry too much about public opinion either, as long as he believes what he is doing is right. The Israelis may have quite a bit more margin than we think.
CNN News Alert:
U.N. Security Council calls for end to fighting between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah guerrillas, citing "grave consequences for humanitarian situation."
---
Stop demonizing of Israel for merely defending itself
What other country ,
when attacked in an unprovoked aggression across a recognized international frontier, is then put on a countdown clock by the world, given a limited time window in which to fight back, regardless of whether it has restored its own security?
What other country sustains 1,500 indiscriminate rocket attacks into its cities — every one designed to kill, maim and terrorize civilians — and is then vilified by the world when it tries to destroy the enemy's infrastructure and strongholds with precision-guided munitions that sometimes have the unintended but unavoidable consequence of collateral civilian death and suffering?
Hearing the world pass judgment on the Israel-Hezbollah war as it unfolds is to live in an Orwellian moral universe.
The world — governments, the media, U.N. bureaucrats
— has completely lost its moral bearings.
Allen:
Some here think the Admin has it.
Some Don't!
wretchard,
Thank you!
I believe the Olmert government has betrayed its public, which by a margin of 4:1 is begging for a decisive COMBINED arms assault. When this hiatus enters its third day, the betrayal will be obvious. Perhaps, the Olmert government then will collapse. America will not be so fortunate.
Despite being a decades’ long fan of Mr. Netanyahu, I would not bet the farm on him bucking the Department of State for very long.
I have been critical of Israel's political leadership but that is something quite different from writing off the IDF's capability.
All it takes from Olmert is a "Go" and a get-out-of-the-way and the IDF can and would exterminate every HB fighter, ammo carrier and water carrier in the Bekaa.
Unfortunately, Olmert gives us no reason to believe the Go will ever come.
PB,
But what would
"The World Community"
Say?
Time for a Manhatten Project for a World Community Weapon.
"The Security Council expresses its extreme shock and distress at the shelling by the Israeli Defense Forces of a residential building in Qana, in southern Lebanon, which has caused the killing of dozens of civilians, mostly children, and injured many others,"
The Security Council was not shocked by Darfur or Tibet, apparently. I am sure they will take up those matters tomorrow - not.
The United States did not exercise its veto in defense of its ally Israel. Keep an eye on Mr. Bolton; he does not well abide fools, and may decide to spend more time with his family.
Qana is the town where Jesus worked His first miracle.
You'd think that Kofi could AT LEAST have referred to 1559 today, and the year of missiles on Israel.
rufus said:
BTW, Haifa wasn't hit, today.
Just a coincidence, I suppose.
Well we can't have competing images of wounded Israeli kids when the Hezbos are in full court press mode. I wonder what kind of games the Lebanese children play in the missile sites while they are waiting to be "bombed" and if they really want to be martyrs like the Iman screaming at the sappers on the phone from somewhere safe says they do.
Let's face it, contrary to its claims of being really concerned about human life, it's simply not true that the Israelis are super careful. They regard Arab lives as less worthy as the lives of Jews, even when dealing with its own citizens.
There is absolutely no way to engage in this kind of bombardment without forward observers and not have massive collateral damage, yet that is exactly what Israel has undertaken. Worse yet, a quick land campaign likely would have been more effective at rooting out Hezbollah, but that would have endangered (Jewish) lives. So, when there is a conflict of Jewish and Arab life, even when that conflict is between Jewish combatants and Arab noncombatants, Israel will always choose the Jewish lives, contrary to its self-serving claims that it always embraces "purity of arms."
There is ample evidence of this in previous Jewish campaigns, whether it was the 1982 shelling of South Beiruit that led even President Reagan to register a protest to lesser events like the use of hellfire missiles against terrorist targets in crowded refugee camps in Gaza and the West Bank. The rest of the world sees what we refuse to: Israel is being negligent in its conduct of this and most of its wars in a way that leads to the deaths of innocent Arab civilians who are not part of Hezbollah and are under no definition combatnats.
It is interesting to note that southern Lebanon is not Iraq and the combatants are neither Saddam loyalists nor Arab insurgents. Where Iraq is a vast, far off and varied geography populated by multitudinous peoples and sects, the terrain of south Lebanon has been on the border and on the minds of Israel for the past 55 years. They no doubt understand the lay of the land and have the surveillance technology to peer into the enclaves of the Hezbollah redoubts. Whereas US surveillance efforts over Iraq amounted to viewing a playing field through a soda straw it is easy to believe that Israel has many soda straws and the intelligence to know where to look through them. That is not to say that all will end well but to date I see no glaring faux pax. The best technique to a mobile insurgency is an equally mobile counter-insurgency.
It IS plausible. In fact, consideringh how abruptly the same sort of incident has stopped Israeli counteroffensives in the past, and considering what a bunch of low dogs the Hezs are, it almost hard to believe they WOULDn't have an emergency incident on the shelf, to cook off in the event of really needing a breather.
You'd think that Resolution could AT LEAST have condemned the practice using of human shields.
Does it?
6:56 PM - The MSM has been BEGGING for it for years.
That’s pretty harsh Roach,
I suppose you’d be content with the idea that the US forces would put the lives of US forces over sanctimonious Jihadists.
The Joos put lives of their own people first. First and foremost it is their concern for life that endears me to them the most. It is the utter contempt that the Hezbollah holds for the surrounding populace that devolves them in my mind to animals. They believe that they, following “Gods will”, are the final arbiters of who lives and dies.
If I ever get in trouble with the law I should just grab a four year old by the neck and shove a pistol down their throat. That will give me the legitimacy to make my get away and to gain your respect.
Both the immoral and moral west is having a hard time getting their heads around this enemy that will put their own innocent women and children in front of themselves in combat they initiate. Much less, as wretchard's comment imply, can we imagine they would murder the same innocents for propaganda purposes.
Don't expect, regardless of the outcome, the left, the MSM or the supporters of jihad to accept, let alone report/admit, this to be a reality.
Their die has been cast.
G-d is separating his people.
rufus; 6:38 PM
It might be silly of me to expect this administration to insist on a clause reflecting the disappoint of the UN with Hezbollah's ongoing use of "Holy Human Shields". You will recall that last week one of he UN's own made just such a criticism, saying, as I recall, that Hezbollah was cowardly. Of course, to insist on this would have been insensitive, lacking compassion, and the administration certainly couldn't have that.
I will take my silliness over that of the Bush administration. We will all live through mine. The same may not be true for theirs.
Roach, all the terrorists have to do is "stop", and then there will never ever again be any chance of any collateral damage. If the terrorists gave a sh*t about their own people, would they fight from among them?
My hat's off to IDF that there isn't far, far more of it.
If the shoe was on the other foot, there'd be Israeli collaterals too many to count.
But we're WAY past moral equivalence, Buddy:
Their lives are ALWAYS worth more than ours.
Esp our GI's.
roach; 6:54 PM
Refresh my memory: Why was Israel shelling south Beirut again?
You will recall that Mr. Reagan also gave Hezbollah a free pass on the little matter of the Marine (peacekeeper) barracks.
Wasn't it the Reagan administration that also roundly criticized Israel for destroying Iraq's French reactor inter alia?
Just asking.
rufus,
See my 5:36 PM
Doug, we may be WAY past moral equivalence, and we may be WAY past it even making any difference if Hez blew their own building. "Well, they HAD to, they needed some relief from the Zionist invader!"
This is madness. Those people--from Allen Colmes to Nasrollah, are literally gone round the bend. Once human life is worthless, the species is a goner.
Allen Colmes just happened to be on tv blurting about this all being the fault of UN242, when I was writing--sorry for the weird reference.
I don't know why those who post here continue to wring their hands every time the UN comes out with another ridiculous resolution.
They're the reason all this came to pass in the first place.
If the UN had actually enforced their resolution in S Lebanon for the past six years, Hezbollah would not be a force there now.
A labyrinth of tunnel works, tons of sophisticated weaponry, ample supply - all on Israel’s doorstep and under the UN's smarmy nose.
The UN has no accountability in this??
How could Israel OR THE US not see the UN as an enemy?
Enscout, because we always want the legitimate things it is supposed to do--like 1559 for instance.
enscout,
In the immortal words of Bush the Elder, "It wouldn't be prudent."
Not to worry, enscout, real Americans are painfully aware of the cesspool on the Hudson. If we can ever unite long enough to get am American administration, we might even be rid of it.
rufus; 7:37 PM
No doubt, but my only son, who may be off to West Point next year, would expect no less of me.
As far as the Qana incident, the thing is, IAF did hit it, so Hez would've had to order up the banner, and put the demolition in play, on the fly. And what about talking survivors--can they all be in on a timing story? Let's be careful and not go off on a tangent--
buddy; Don't we all.
We are fools if we think that the UN will enforce anything they declare.
Everyone on this thread knows that an imposed ceasefire would only be expected from the Israeli side. The only way Israel or the US should agree is if it gives them strategic advantage as pat's 4:45 post indicates.
Despite our differences, with only rare exception, everyone contributing to this site is a patriot. Our differences are to means, not ends.
It is an honor, ladies and gentlemen.
On that pap, I retire to the patio to enjoy those vices near and dear my little two chambered heart.
Allen, George Bush is very relieved, and hopes you drink long and hard.
I keep thinkin the same thing, rufus--go fishin or gonna pop a gasket, what'll it be--
Could well be--one thing's for sure, there are some eyeballs on the case. So this one should resolve. Unlike so many others in years past.
My point on Israel's scale of values, rufus, is that the whole concept of the noncombatant/combatant distinction is that soldiers of all nations must incur costs, including greater risk to life, in order to limit the harm of warfare. And this means that things that might save Israeli lives, such as carpet bombing Lebanon, are not permitted even if the alternatives such as infantry-intensive operations require greater risk to life.
Two things have become apparent:
The much-vaunted IDF is not so great at dealing with a capable enemy, which they've essentially never had to face before.
And, two, the IDF will respond to this dilemma with massive, indiscriminate firepower. How else can we explain things like bombing random cars on the roads in and out of the South, bombing evacuation routes, bombing apartment complexes, etc. And this is all inevitable because IDF intelligencein Lebanon is totally lacking as is a ground presence.
Wretchard notes:
...the mysterious and long gap between the IAF bombing and building collapse. I knew the Hezbollah were low. If what's implied is true, could they be that low?
Yes.
One could imagine that if Hezbollah had a group of human shields that did not die on que (at the time when Rice was in the area) that they may have just lent a helping hand with some explosives. The MSM loves dead bodies.
Continuing on greer rant's and What is Occupation's posts, PL also points to the construction extremely well time banner of Rice which plays on the civilian death theme:
[Power Line]:
This photograph shows Beirut demonstrators with a giant poster of Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice that was used in a rally protesting the accidental killing of civilian human shields, along with terrorists, in Qana:
[picture of huge photolithic banner of Rice with blood on lips]
What seems odd about this is that the banner was unfurled within hours after the Qana attack took place. The building where the civilians died was bombed on Sunday morning... I have no idea what kind of facility it takes to produce a 30-foot-high banner like this one. It is obviously professionally done. It would be interesting to know where this banner was produced; who designed and paid for it; and how its production was expedited so that it was ready for use, on the street, within hours after the event being protested... was the image of Rice produced in advance, awaiting a pretext for its use... I've often been curious about the logistics of pro-terrorist demonstrations, and this seems like an especially curious example.
See: Just Wondering
I am for the cessation of aerial bombing in southern Lebanon - as long as the aerial attacks continue on other needed targets within the region (Other wise there should be no aerial cease fire).
There is a gallows humor that pervades the last 15 days worth of threads. It has become more evident as the trends continue.
aristides takes the realities, adds in a dash of hubris and can devine a US/Israeli Strategy.
Good old PB is shocked that the Israeli are following the US Army's Iraq playbook and declares an end of history. Ms Weddington sees a vast empty hole, where once the undefeatable IDF stood.
Me, I'm gonna ride with the Supremes and the rest of the Federals, there is no International Islamic conspriacy nor War. The Mohammedans are not interconnected and each individual Terrorist deserves a jury trial.
Feels so much better to not be concerned any more. The future is in good hands.
The Good Guys never lose.
'Rat 8:25 PM
Why the Middle East Crisis Isn't Really About Terrorism
doug,
Another Saudi volley, their troops are on the march.
Yesterday, Brent Scrowcroft, now Time Magazine.
The drum beat continues, may as well march to it.
The President and Ms Condi do.
Back to the Future!
wretchard wrote:
Can it be that, when all is said and done, the terrorist’s goal is not so much victory (a victory of which he is not necessarily assured), but rather the continuation of hostilities?
That goes without saying. Israel had evacuated South Lebanon for 6 years, and had just evacuated Gaza, but as Michael Corleone said in Part III, "Just when I think I'm out they pull me back in!"
The entire culture of the Palestinians and the Hezbollah is not geared to building infrastructure and growing the economy, but purely to destroy the Zionists, and it can not and will not change.
For a long time the Israelis did a tit-for-tat destruction of Pallie infrastructure after each suicide bombing, hoping to create a negative feedback loop that would bring the attacks to a halt, starting with the destruction of Arafat's helicopters and his "international airport". All the Israelis succeeded in doing was to create conditions where millions of people are totally dependent on outside aid to exist (even utilities from the very entity they have sworn to destroy), thus perpetrating an endless victim status to justify more attacks.
Because it is the attacks that are the central thing. They wouldn't even begin to know what to do with the land if all the Jews did pack up and leave. The whole area would be a giant tumor, like Gaza, but writ large, and then the Pallies would turn on their own neighboring Arab "brothers" because that's all they know.
We already know what the Egyptians think of them, they've got an Israeli-style wall across the border with Gaza, only this one doesn't have the scorn of the media or Roger Waters doing concerts in front of it to try to get it torn down.
Allen,
You said, "Despite our differences, everyone on this thread is [still] a patriot..."
I'm pretty sure of that, but even more certain everyone on this site is a mammal, even though you referenced your "two-chambered heart."
;-)
Jamie Irons
You remind me:
Google news had an article that mimicked the TIME article:
I Clicked, and it was in Chinese!
When I came back, it was no longer the Headline.
I'll see if I can find it in my history.
Norcal Guy:
No Bi Here:
I be Tri, the all loving amphibian!
Bless little P-tater's heart:
Marsupials store extra love in the pouch-chamber.
Cornelius said:
...anyone else read that Ireland diverted a US flight of bunker busters destined for Israel to England because it didn't want the plane to land on it's soil? The Irish?!?
Yes I did. And, no I am not surprised.
There has been a long standing partnership between the IRA and the PLO (or it's armed factions including Hamas and their buddies Hezbollah). It's only natural that the Irish government not help destory their old partners in crime.
[NRO]:
Students of terrorism can easily trace the IRA's connections to the PLO and its numerous factions back to the 1970s and 1980s, when IRA and PLO operatives trained together in Libya and the Bekaa Valley... Following the Israeli incursion into Jenin earlier this year, Paul Collinson, a British explosives expert working with the Red Cross, identified hundreds of explosive devices found there and noted that "the pipe bombs I found in Jenin are exact replicas of ones I found in Northern Ireland."
See: IRA plus PLO equals Terror
Latest Google Headline
(chinese one came out on Google 2 hours after Time Version!)
The Wisdom Of Retreat
Here' the Chinese Version of the Time Article:
Why the Middle East Crisis Isn't Really About Terrorism.
yep, them Sauds are mobilizing their Forces.
Expect to see Dr K. and George Mitchell weigh in tomorrow or Tuesday.
The only way I'd ever vote for a a Republican, for President in '08.
Big John will never get my vote.
Do Roaches have Hearts?
You remind me again Rat:
This one said Rudy's 9-11 Patina would quickly wear off in a Campaign.
A Huntin I will go again.
(I fear Rudy's not pure enuf for the primaries:
I he has a drink now and then, you'd STILL vote for him?)
"if he has a drink"
aristides takes the realities, adds in a dash of hubris and can devine a US/Israeli Strategy.
And here I thought I was adding a pinch of optimism. Must have switched the bottles.
4-chambered Embryos Evolving Stances
That's what we should do w/'Rat, Aristides!
Slip him a Gibson Gimlet.
On CNN Frontpage, the video has two tabs:
"Most Popular" and "Best Video"
as of now, if you click best video, the list includes
"Marines Remember Beirut Bombing"
2 Guys that were there, one describing what C-4 relates.
Says Marines won't let it happen again.
What about if they're under orders where they would have to to follow the orders?
cedarford,
I will agree to the extent that the attack on the barracks was the result of gross criminal negligence.
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