Which Way Did He Go?
The latest news from Lebanon comes from the Jerusalem Post. I've annotated the account on the right hand column with some questions the reader might want to think about.
| Jerusalem Post Story | Annotation |
| AF missiles struck near the main Lebanese border crossing into Syria on Saturday, forcing its closure for the first time in the 18-day-old conflict, police officials said. IAF warplanes fired three missiles that landed at the Masnaa crossing, about 300 meters beyond a Lebanese customs post, the officials said. They said the area is considered to be part of Lebanese territory. .. | What is the point of repeatedly striking the Beirut-Damascus road and interdicting the crossing except to inhibit the easy movement of vehicular traffic from Damascus? Is this part of the battlefield shaping? Shaping for what? |
| On Saturday, the IDF wrapped up
its operations in the southern Lebanese village of Bint Jbail and
withdrew its forces from the area as other troops from Division 162
geared up for a planned invasion of other Hizbullah strongholds in
western Lebanon. IDF source said that the troops would raze villages
throughout western Lebanon but did not plan at this stage to reach Tyre,
the launching pad for the most of the rockets fired at Haifa. Following
a night of intensive clashes during which close to 30 Hizbullah
guerillas were killed, as well as one IDF paratrooper who was seriously
wounded, the IDF pulled out its forces from the town, dubbed a
"terror capital" by the IDF, with OC Northern Command
Maj.-Gen. declaring that Bint Jbail was "almost in ruins."
Adam said that while the IDF pulled most of the troops out of Bint Jbail, a small force did remain and was in control of the town, once home to 20,000, most of whom fled into northern Lebanon before fighting erupted there last Monday. Israel said its air force would continue to pound Bint Jbail and ground forces would retain the right to return at any time. |
Why is the IDF withdrawing from the heart of Hezbollahland? Has it been defeated? Why the change of direction to the West, near the coast? Division 162, which is supposed to be part of Central Command is an interesting choice for the task of going into Western Lebanon? Are they going to drive up the coast? If there are no plans to reach Tyre what is the purpose of this attack? |
| IDF troops from the Golani and
Paratroopers Brigades killed at least 50 Hizbullah operatives and
wounded hundreds during intense gun battles over the weekend. Most of
the wounded operatives were from Hizbullah's special forces and had come
to the village to beef up the regular Hizbullah guerrillas there.
Soldiers operating in the village found and confiscated dozens of guns
and rifles, stocks of ammunition, grenades, mines, and five anti-tank
missiles.
While Battalion 890 of the Paratrooper's Brigade began to pull out of Bint Jbail, military intelligence using an unmanned aerial vehicle spotted a group of Hizbullah terrorists driving on motorcycles on their way to set up an ambush for the withdrawing troops. The IDF troops set up accordingly and engaged the enemy force, killing 26 guerillas. During the clashes, seven soldiers were wounded including one seriously. |
This is a very revealing
snapshot of clashes between apparently mobile forces. We are told of
fights between Hizbullah "special forces" and the Golani and
Paratroop brigades (Northern and Central Commands). We have indications
there are prisoners ("wounded operatives")
The Hezbollah are apparently able to maneuver their mobile forces in response to IDF movements. This implies a great deal about the integrity of its command structure and communications capability. Here the Hez are mounted on motorcycles like cavalry and set an ambush. The IDF had cavalry, too, in the shape of the UAVs and could integrate the cavalry reports into a counterambush. I am guessing that operations in Lebanon are fluid to a larger extent than has been reported and that the action is actually more widespread than commonly realized. |
| Since Operation Change of Direction was launched against Hizbullah on July 12, over 200 Hizbullah guerillas had been killed in clashes with the IDF, a high-ranking officer said Saturday. Meanwhile, the IDF confirmed that an unmanned drone crashed in Lebanese territory on Friday. The army denied the claim made by Hizbullah-backed Al-Manar television, saying that its patron Hizbullah shot down the aircraft. Israel asserted that the cause of the crash was most likely technical problems. The IDF destroyed the remains of the craft so that it would not fall into Hizbullah hands. .. | The curious incident of the drone. Is this the drone reported shot down over the Bekaa by Syrian AAA? |
This will be interesting to watch.
posted by wretchardthecat at 7/29/2006 04:12:00 PM
81 Comments:
Dear Richard
My mother Jane (UK born and now living in Caesarea, Israel)fed up of the British press and her friends' constant criticisms, set up her own blog last week.
She found your blog yesterday and is in awe. She absolutely refused to write to you because she feels your writing is far superior to hers but if you have a moment I would love you to take a look and see what you think. (Jane's Fighting Talk)
Any comment from you would mean alot. Thank you
Sophie
Re: shutting down the border crossing.
This was posted at the Corner by Jonah Goldberg:
Kuwait’s Al Seyassah newspaper reported that Hassan Nasrollah, the capo of Lebanon's Hezbollah traveled to Damascus to meet with Syrian leader Bashar al-Asad and the secretary of the supreme national security council of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ali Larijani. On Thursday, the Islamic regime’s news media announced Larijani’s trip to Syria. However, later they denied it.
Al Seyassah however wrote that Nasrollah was able to reach Syria with the assistance of Syrian security agents stationed in Lebanon. The topic of discussion between the 3 men will be about the ways Syria and the Islamic Republic of Iran can deliver weapons and ammunition to Hezbollah; Nasrollah intends to be consulting with his “big brothers”.
Are they trying to keep him in Syria? Now why would they do that?
Richard, I read your comment daily and am also 'in awe'.
Perhaps you'd satisfy my curiosity about your background - are you a military professional, or a keen amateur?
Wretchard said...
"Since Operation Change of Direction was launched against Hizbullah on July 12, over 200 Hizbullah guerillas had been killed in clashes with the IDF, a high-ranking officer said Saturday."
The numbers could have been done with a few car bombs and stand-off missile shots. There really has to be something I am missing, or maybe this really is "the man that never was" redux. Here's hoping to you kid.
You make it we break it. You Break it, we Make it. Support your local UN Representative!
UNIFIL is still facing serious restrictions in its freedom of movement due to the ongoing hostilities and the extensive destruction of roads and bridges throughout the area of operation. Yesterday, a UNIFIL engineering contingent from China managed to do some repairs on a key road artery between Tyre and Naqoura, and the road is now usable for traffic. However, more road destruction was reported in various areas in the south.
ht- Jane's commenter
sophie,
I'm an amateur and there's a world of difference between an amateur and a pro. But I'm good enough an amateur to understand my ignorance.
Roger Simon's interview w/Lebanese Bloggers is illuminating.
Disconnect seems to be this:
The folks in South Lebanon were pleased with what the Hezzies were doing for them.
Great.
But what about when the Hezzies or Iran decides it's time to inflict mass terror on Israel?
Should they expect life to continue to be groovy?
I guess since it was disproportionate, it's all Israel's fault?
Who knows.
Frontpage has a piece about UN fired upon and seriously wounded by the Hezzies.
Didn't make the news though.
To me there are two possible
1. The Israeli's are spasming. They have no strategic plan and did not expect a free hand from Washington/London and even much of the Arab leadership. They expected to be able to show the flag and 'be forced to the peace table'. Have they been watching President Bush and Prime Minister Blair this past half decade?
or 2. They are flexing... Strike deep with air, force Hezbollah to attack and defend and thus consolidate, and destroy the packets of consolidation. But, they are not surrounding their enemy.
Regretfully, I think the Israeli's voted in a President Carter/Clinton clone. Half measures, full yak, and kick the can to the next poor sod who will settle his big fat a@@ in the Prime Minister’s chair…
Doug" "The folks in South Lebanon were pleased with what the Hezzies were doing for them."
My Lebanese friends (I grew up and live in an area with a huge Lebanese community; mostly Maronites) tell me that beginning about 6 years ago (funny about that #) the HB made South Lebanon unsafe and uninhabitable for anyone who is not HB. So, it's no surprise that the "folks" were pleased, the HB ran out all non-HB neighbors to the "folks'" advantage.
A new hope?
The IDF wrapped up its operations in the southern Lebanese village of Bint Jbail on Saturday and withdrew most of its troops from the area. At the same time, the army was gearing up for a new ground incursion into Lebanon.
Does anyone have any other conclusive reports on this?
Perhaps this is just another method of drawing Hezbollah back into the towns so that they can re-invade again, this time with all routes radiating from it cut off from resupply. Is the IDF planning to leapfrog over Bint Jubayl and move north?
Dear Wretchard:
We see nothing unusual with the withdrawal of the Israeli assault element from Bint Jbail. We believe the IDF intends to systematically find and destroy as many of the Hezbollah strongpoints and tunnel complexes south of the Litani River as it can before diplomatic time runs out. During this process, the IDF will also attempt to make as much of this part of Lebanon as they can unfit for future civilian habitation. This will help, imperfectly, Israel monitor and control this zone after the conclusion of this round of hostilities.
Finding and clearing the Hezbollah military infrastructure out of south Lebanon is a labor-intensive and time-consuming task. Israel mobilized nine additional reserve brigades in order to rotate troops in and out of the area over time to do the job.
We further discuss our assessment of Israel's plan at our post,
Israel adjusts its tactics, slightly.
At the end of this campaign, Hezbollah will remain largely intact, most of its members having sat out the fighting in Beirut and Syria. Israel needs a wider war against Syria and Iran in order get true security. But Israel cannot manage this by itself. It will need to wait for the West's looming confrontation with Iran, which may arrive sooner than many currently think.
Westhawk
3case
My Lebanese friends (I grew up and live in an area with a huge Lebanese community; mostly Maronites) tell me that beginning about 6 years ago (funny about that #) the HB made South Lebanon unsafe and uninhabitable for anyone who is not HB. So, it's no surprise that the "folks" were pleased, the HB ran out all non-HB neighbors to the "folks'" advantage.
That makes it easy for Israel then. They just have to kill everything that moves in south Lebanon. But no, Olmert likes a challenge. He wants his commanders on the ground to read the minds of the non-uniformed forces out there and then steer their fire away from the good Hezbollah and toward the bad Hezbollah. We can start our office pool now on what day Bibi Netanyahu gets in the big chair. Funny how fate turns in Israeli politics. It was back in, what, March, that they were writing Netanyahu off as an absolute has-been who played his last hand and had nothing but garbage.
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
I put this on the last thread, but it was down around the 300th comment, so I'll go ahead and post it again.
Israel will have a week or two to further degrade Hezbollah's forces, but then the fires of war will be snuffed out.
Once out of the heat, the Lebanese government will be annealed.
What right did the Maronites have to be there anyhow?
Aren't they gag, choke, gasp, Catholics?
Let them eat Yousef's Special
Hanford YellowCake.
Aristides brain's been sealed -
BIPS
Bush is perfect, syndrome.
You're right, Doug. I've been swept off my feet.
When are the bunker-busters that the U.S. rushed to Israel going to start busting?
Will Israeli troops want to be in the vicinity when they do?
Agree with the poster who said if you've leveled the town, why stay. Especially if very big bombs are going to start falling quite soon.
Aristides,
Another oddity...
The rocket scientists we call Hezbollah are also part of the Iranian/Syrian deterrence force. And, they are blowing their military assets in a kabuki dance while yelling Allah Akhbar at the top of their lungs. And, these racketeers aren’t even tipping their missiles with WMD.
Time to recall the theater ‘general’ and remind him that there is a real war on. His theater of action was supposed to fix the enemy in place – not bring the enemy closer to the heart of a major combatant. Do you think Syria wants Israel roiling about on its borders until its ready? Do you think Syria wants these violent and useless turds floating around in their cities and population centers – getting bored, getting fanatical, getting frustrated, getting pissed at Assad? And, the battlefield will not be ready till Iran has multiple nuclear weapons – including some that demonstrate their capability with above ground tests…
This is odd, very odd.
I have more confidence in Bush/Blair than Olmert. If the strategy is to force or coerce Hezbollah to blow their assets and capability before they could actually cause damage than we have a very deep strategy – and one that points to a regional escalation of the conflict on our terms sooner rather than later. Don’t forget that mighty Iran will soon be on half rations for their refined fuel requirements. The beauty of subsidies and socialism. They seem to have forgotten that gasoline is far more expensive than oil. Yuk, yuk…
Oooo, aaaaaahhhh that PNAC thang!!!
The Great Right Wing Conspiracy!!!
The shadow government!!!
Skull and Crossbones!!!
Like most, I am probably reading far more into this spasm than any sane individual should.
Grant and Sherman had to break the back of the South's capacity to make war. Hitler's war machine had to be broken and Germany's citizens demoralized before the European theatre in WWII could be brought to close. Unless the IDF in Southern Lebanon and the US Forces in Iraq are prepared to use overwhelming force, the enemy will persist and persist. The enemy in this case includes Syria and Iran in the Middle East. It is plain as can be that coalition forces in conjunction with the IDF will need to confront these "centers of gravity" with full on military force. If we fail to take decisive action we'd better prepare to start saying "elastic loaves" in Spanish (with a Venezuelan dialect no doubt).
What looks like spasming around aimlessly may be a campaign to clear the area for the incoming international force. On the theory that Hez will not surrender any strongholds to the international force, that the international force will take over only an "open" area. Why "toward" Tyre, but not Tyre, then makes sense--the buffer zone. This is what Ollie North is saying right now on Fox. And yes, the international force will be armed and authorized to shoot. It will protect itself, IOW.
Trish, previous post
Danmark is a Nato member, small and useful. Much more useful being part of Nato. Israel has no where to go by itself. It needs to be part of something and useful. Nato will do it because like it or not, Israel has no friends in the ME, and not on the way to get any. Nato can use Israel because Nato has a problem with Islam regardless of their state of denial. The immediate problem is Iran. Israel in Nato can put a shot over Iran's bow telling them they ain't getting any part of Israel, nor will they win against Nato. This wouuld be a huge diplomatic coup for Israel and Nato. I have no illusions that the Bush administration is the least qualified to pull it off, but the possibility is there.
to what impact will 700,000 - 900,000 new refugees have on the following points:
syria a. 170,000 refugees fleeing to syria, now that syria doesnt have the ussr & that iraqi oil pipe (for cash) anymore..
lebanon b. 530,000 shia fleeing into the north where their sunni cousins live (taking thousands of sunni apartments in beirut while the rich lebanese are either in europe or in their mountain retreats
how many israeli spies are a part of the fleeing hoards? (hez as already been accused of executing 18 spies)
I think the Israeli tactics on the ground in Lebanon are designed to, for once, allow Israel to come out ahead in the peace agreement (or ceasefire) to follow. By only being marginally in on the ground in South Lebanon, it will be easier for Israel to say it will leave Lebanon.
Conversely, how can the Hezbos agree to leave Southern Lebanon voluntarily? Here they have spent years storing arms and building vast tunnel network, training troops, etc. and now they have to leave. And there may even be a UN Resolution saying they have to disarm or leave South Lebanon. If they agree, then it is a Hezbo defeat, so they will not agree to leave.
So when Hezbos refuse to leave, the UN will give up asking. However, that would allow IDF to continue moving thru South Lebanon to continue killing Hezbos.
Teresita:
"They just have to kill everything that moves in south Lebanon." I have had that said to me twice in the last 10 days when discussing what's up in S. Lebanon.
Doug:
The Maronites I know tell me they are Phoenicians, which puts them in Lebanon WAY before (1000+ years) the birth of Islam. Also, if I recall correctly, they are closer to Eastern Church than Catholic.
Everybody seems hung up on the IDF forrays into Lebanon being their offensive...what if they are reconnaisance in force?
This is to say that I see a much wider Mid-East war as inevitable. What I'd like to see is the US coalition forces, including the IDF, coordinate a massive knock-out strike on Syria and Iran with "simultanaity." But I'm afraid that this is wishful thinking. Bush and the international community seem like they are waiting for a triggering event, a hard punch on the chin. The idea of sending Condi Rice to "talk sense" into Syria or Iran is absurd and everyone knows it. The diplomatic effort is just a well-understood stall game by all sides. And all it does is allow the enemy to better prepare themselves for the eventual big war. My hope is that we strike before such a triggering event occurs because such an event may be catastrophic.
Nato will not accept Israel out of pity. It will do so when it understands that Israel off the table and part of Nato removes it from the tiresome game of ME politics since 1967. Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan are out of the game and would welcome it because it stops Iran dead in its tracks. Nato gets a lot out of it but they do notknow it yet because it needs to be talked about , thought about, argued about and then it will be clear. Nato has great prestige in the world, much more so than the UN. This strategy can be sold as the least worst alternative. It would work. it would be Nixonian in audacity, but don't tell anyone or it may queer the deal.
Isn't the (old) core element to NATO that an attack on one member constituted an attack on all members and a response is mandated? How many NATO members would agree to accepting Israel into such an agreement? Not many is my guess.
Oooooo, 2614th (7:26pm)
“Israel in Nato can put a shot over Iran's bow telling them they ain't getting any part of Israel, nor will they win against Nato.”
Flip it and you have an immediate Factor:
NATO in Israel can put a shot over Iran's bow telling them they ain't getting any part of Israel, nor will they win against NATO.
NATO in Israel
NATO in Lebanon
NATO in Afghanistan
Islamofascist have succeeded in getting a viable enemy force in there midst. Brilliant. And a peacekeeping force is just the ticket, eh… Can’t have those Canadians killing people can we – whoops, forgot about the recent events in Afghanistan…
As far as the incompetence of Bush/Blair/Howard et al… Take a look at a map. Would you prefer our strategic position or Iran’s?
Everybody is getting worked up over the will to fight, nobody that matters is rending their clothes over the necessity to fight. That in itself is a huge sea change.
At the risk of focusing on a meaningless detail, I'm trying to think why the IDF would set up a counter-ambush with men on the ground. While it sounds like their counter-ambush operation was very successful, it was also reported that IDF troops took some casualties.
My point is why not call in and air and/or artillery strikes, and keep your men out of harm's way? It's hard for me to imagine that ground support aircraft and/or artillery support wouldn't be available on a moment's notice, and it would also seem that a bunch of bad guys on motorcycles would be easy pickins for a variety of munitions that could've been delivered via artillery or aircraft.
Does this point to any larger aims from a strategic standpoint? Perhaps capturing "operatives" alive is paramount? Or maybe they simply want to be sure that they're sure they got them all.
Just thinking out loud too late at night- I'd be interested in opinion or insight, even (especially?) in the case it points out something obvious I'm missing.
530,000 shia fleeing into the north where their sunni cousins live (taking thousands of sunni apartments in beirut while the rich lebanese are either in europe or in their mountain retreats
Was wondering when someone else would start wondering aloud about that.
Scenario:
1 - It's summer, which means it's hot.
2 - Hundreds of thousands of Shia, who are looked down on by the Sunni, Druze, and Christians are now crammed in cheek-by-jowl with Sunni, Druze, and Christians.
3 - Said Sunni, Druze, and Christians have just seen their summer jobs, and all the plans they had for the money those jobs would have earned, go up in smoke.
4 - Said Shia are refugees and probably feeling and acting put-upon.
5 - It's an honor/shame culture and is experiencing constant humiliation by a force they cannot reach.
6 - There 17 different strongly-tribal sects/factions present.
7 - Reports of Hez attacking Christian and Druze villages have made it all the way out into the English language press, which is just the tip of the word-of-mouth/rumor iceberg.
To me this adds up to a pressure cooker just waiting to explode.
WHat brilliant Bush/Blair plan is everyon etalking about?
The latest reports on the Rice Cease Fire plan are:
1. Israel releases hezbollah/lebanese prisoners
2. Israel surrenders the Shebba Farms/Mt Dov area along with its military installations
3. The resolution does not call for Hezbollah to be disarmed
4. Hezbollah will be integrated into the Lebanese Army
5. Iran and Syria give up nothing
This as unmitigated and absolute a defear as Israel has ever suffered.
Hezbollah has driven them from Lebanon, now they've driven them from the Shebba Farms, they have them on the run.
Hezbollah emerges victorious, Israel defeated.
Someone explain the positives. I have a hard time believing the US would countenance such a defeat for its main client in the region, but it looks to be the case.
I hope Olmert is on the phone to Beijing or Moscow, because Washington has just cast Jerusalem aside. They are no longer seen as a valuable or effective asset.
Laugh at what you want Boghie. I am pleased to give you mirth but do not make an ass of yourself with facts, especially at the expense of the Canadians. In WWII, one in twenty Canadians who fought, died in combat over 40,000 dead from one million served. If you think that insignificant compare them to American losses. Canada was also an integral part of Nato in the cold war, one of the greatest diplomatic and military victories in human history. Canada was a vital part of Norad and the DEW line. They served in intelligence and vital communications capacity and serve in Afghanistan. Disparage Canada and Nato, one of the great edifices of the twentieth century. Your hee haws remind one of the old adage that it takes a carpenter to put up a building but needs only a jackass to take it down.
To make matters worse, Ehud Olmert has agreed to have the French protect Israel. Israel forced to surrender its securoty to France. Astounding!
The man needs to go. Now!
I am literally stunned at these developments.
Never in my wildest dreams did I ever think that I'd see Israel be so completely and utterly defeated.
This is beyond a stalemate. This is a clear hezbollah victory.
It cannot be spun any other way and I challenge anyone to do so.
An arb/muslim force has defeated a western force outright for the first time in any of our lifetimes.
This is not a good development.
Sarah,
Ralph Peters, NY Post military columnist, appears to agree with you. He was so frusrated today on the radio with Israel unwillingness to commit enough troops to destroy Hezbos in So. Lebanon. After ceasefire, Peters was looking to new election in Israel and bring back Bibi Netanyahu of Likud.
But, as I said above, I'm not sure I agree with Peters. Except that if Olmert does not handle the upcoming ceasefire negotiations well, then maybe Likd makes a comeback.
Hassan Nasrallah was right.
If Israel isn't willing to fight for their freedom, to fight for their survival, then they don't deserve it.
If they surrender after 8 guys get ambushed, then they deserve to be defeated, as they have been.
Hopefully, they can learn this lesson, because the enemy has and is already preparing for the next step.
This week will be the nadir of the War on Terror as Iran and Syria have defeated the United States in front of the world.
It is the Nadir of Israel's existence. The absolute low point of their history.
If Olmert had any honor, he'd resign today. There might still be time to turn this around, although I doubt it.
I only hope that Arik is unaware of all of this, if he wer to hear the news, it would surely kill him.
France getting involved is one of the best things that could happen. One of the fringe benefits of this whole issue is that the rest of the world is realizing that they cannot keep ignoring Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, et al.
The French ceasefire proposal, according to the Jerusalem Post has the following stipulations:
The proposal stresses the need "to create the conditions for a permanent cease-fire and a lasting solution to the current crisis between Israel and Lebanon." It emphasizes the need to end the escalating violence, but also "to address urgently the root causes that have given rise to the current crisis.
The conditions for a permanent cease-fire include a buffer zone stretching from the Blue Line - the UN-demarcated boundary that Israel withdrew behind in 2000 - to the Litani River, which was the northern border of Israel's occupation of Lebanon in 1982.
The buffer zone would be "free of any armed personnel, assets and weapons other than those of the Lebanese armed and security forces and of UN-mandated international forces," the draft says.
These are the preconditions for the deployment of a French-led international force. If the French are unwilling to sweep the Hezbollah out, the only conclusion is that France will await a battlefield result which creates those conditions. In other words, it's a "green light" tricked out as a stoplight. It is effectively a Security Council mandate to sweep out Hezbollah to the Litani River.
Nasrallah can have a ceasefire at this price. It's also a way of saying 'we want peace' but in practice say 'you are authorized to wage war to this limit'.
But consider, if Hezbollah gives up its Southen Lebanon stronghold it becomes vastly weakened with respect to its internal rivals. It loses face with its former constituents. It's a defeat of monumental proportions for Hezbollah. Narallah can of course try to spin it, but that ball will hardly rotate.
Now Nasrallah's own megalomanic rhetoric will work against him. He has raised expectations in the Arab street so that to withdraw voluntarily or be driven ignominiously north of the Litani will be a humiliation. Somebody give him a bottle of whiskey and cocked automatic. Either that or he should resolve to reject the ceasefire and fight on.
Wretchard, Hezbollah IS part of the Lebanese armed and security forces. They are now de facto and reports have them becoming de jure integrated in the near future. They're like Sinn Fein and the IRA. Nasrallah is Gerry Adams with a turban.
Even if HB does temporarily leave S. Lebanon, they will hvae done so by defeating Israel, driving them from Shebba Farms and retaining their arms and restocking in the Bekka. The Shebba Farms surrender is a HUGE defeat for Israel. HUGE. MONUMENTAL.
The big winner in this is Tehran, which has now punked Jerusalem and firmly established itself as the main power in the region.
Does anyone remember 1956? An Int'l force comes in to protect Israel from its sworn enemy. How did that work out 11 years later? Israel is simply repeating the mistakes of the past. Only this time Nasser will have nukes and ICBMs and his foot on the jugular of Israel's water supply.
Just some pure speculation here, but I was wondering the whole Bint Jbail operation was a grab for intelligence information. There were a couple reports there about what they found out about Hezbollahs intelligence operations when they took Maroun al-Ras, but I wonder if they got anything important. If they happened to get luckyin "Hezbollahs capital", maybe they figured that there was a better way of approaching the situation. Just a thought.
I've just read in the Debka file that Syria has targeted and shot down an Israeli drone? Is this true? No more timidity.
Oh sure...USMC in S. Lebanon...makes a LOT of sense...nose to nose with HB...it will never happen.
crypto-Soviets flyin' for HB?...next thing you'll tell me is that crypto-Soviets and Euros were gamin' the Oil-for-Food hUmaNitarian effort to fatten their elites' purses while 15K elderly broasted in French apartments....
Frum on Lewis Mackenzie:
For those who want to evaluate these claims, let me add something:
Lewis Mackenzie is one of the most admired officers in the Canadian army, a veteran of operations in the former Yugoslavia.
He was often thought of in the 1990s as a likely future prime minister, and it would surprise nobody if he were appointed Canada's next governor general.
In other words: a very, very serious person.
Given the choice of believing his words or those of the man at the center of the oil-for-food scandal ... well it's an easy call.
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Clinton's secretary of state reminds us how lucky we are to have a Bush administration.
- William Kristol
Every time neocon warmongers like me get exasperated by the Bush administration (and we've had increasingly good reasons for exasperation in the last year or so, I might add), someone like first-term Clinton secretary of state Warren Christopher pops up. Maybe "pops up" isn't quite right, conveying as it does an implication of activity and even energy. So let's just say that Warren Christopher presented his credentials to the Washington Post op-ed page Friday, criticizing the Bush administration, more in sorrow than in anger.
Bush, you see, had "resisted all suggestions that the first order of business should be negotiation of an immediate cease-fire between the warring parties," i.e., between the state of Israel and the terrorist group Hezbollah.
Christopher's piece needs to be read to be believed. It needs to be read as an example of the fatuousness of liberal elite opinion about the world we live in. That opinion is dominant in the Democratic party--and, unfortunately, has penetrated the Bush State Department more than one would wish. Still, Christopher's op-ed is such a convenient reminder of how much worse things could be that one wonders whether he's on Karl Rove's payroll.
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Boghie, Saw your comment at Westhawk.
Israel must be learning a lot from all those missile launches, for while they can be carried around in a pickup, they have to come from somewhere, right?
Doubt if the Israelis/USAF have not been looking, from multiple platforms, near and far.
And then there is the on the ground intel xwraith refers to.
Perhaps the nutjob in Tehran is on his last "gas," so to speak, with the 12th A-hole fairy tale providing convenient timing to explain some otherwise disastrous death-throes?
Quoting the immortal "Pork Rinds What Is":
"never underestimate the ability of these guy to do something stupid"
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Rufus,
While I may disagree with some of Aristides points and constant referal to the brilliance of Admins every move, if you had been reading Prof Landis for a while that Syria has not a clue.
Aristides wins that one hands down, even if Mr. Landis is the perfeser.
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Achillea,
Agreed.
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3 case, re intel: agree, see above.
Rufus: What I MEANT to say:
if you had been reading Prof Landis for a while* you'd conclude* that Syria has not a clue.
Why Syria Has Much to Lose if Hezbollah Is Finally Halted
“The relation with Iran is the kind of relation created under pressure, when you close all doors in front of Syria,” said the economist, Samir Seifan, noting how the United States, the West and their Arab allies have all shunned Damascus for over a year. “This is the only door we have:
Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran. But it is not in the long-term interests of Syria.”
Investments in Syria from Arab states bristling with oil wealth, for example, have basically dried up. There is no sign that will change, particularly because the people orchestrating the street demonstrations in Damascus push participants to chant against Arab leaders who have criticized Hezbollah.
Public Relations Campaigns in Syria:
“Abdullah, you pig, tomorrow we will drag you in chains,” went one recent refrain, referring to the king of Jordan. Another suggested that President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt was a lowly real estate broker who should be dumped.
Ultimately, Syria still hopes the crisis will provide an opportunity to reassert itself as a country that needs to be consulted, particularly when it comes to Lebanese affairs.
---
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Iran Hangs in Suspense as War Offers New Strength, and Sudden Weakness
The Eternal Fantasy:
Even before the war, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was trying to position Iran as the leader of the pan-Muslim world, to unite all Muslims, whether Arabs or Indonesians or Indians, behind the leadership of Tehran. The analysts said that Mr. Ahmadinejad, who was elected on a populist economic message, is the most ideologically driven of Iran’s presidents since the revolution.
Israel and the U.S. knew that as long as Hamas and Hezbollah were there, confronting Iran would be costly,” said Mohsen Rezai, former head of the Revolutionary Guards, said in an interview with the Baztab website. “So, to deal with Iran, they first want to eliminate forces close to Iran that are in Lebanon and Palestine.”
Rufus,
You and that Gibson guy:
It's the evil drink.
Next thing we know you be a raving anti-semite!
---
Got a link to what he supposedly said?
or even a rumor from memory?
Buddy,
You guys are driving Sarah over the cliff!
Lighten up.
(Unless you're SURE she's on their side)
Aristides,
Is Annealed the word of the week, or something?
Click on Squishy's er, icon,
and check out his version of
"Alloyed, and Annealed!"
The only reason I use somewhat alarmist rhetoric is because of frustration at the fact hta 5 yrs on, the West has failed to meaningfully engage the Jihad.
New York
Madrid(Spain announces surrender in the WOT)
Beslan
Bali(the suspects already released)
Istanbul
London(Blair has done nothing to avenge his people)
the list goes on
And Bush, Blair and the rest give nothing but platitudes. They refuse to name the enemy, to confront it.
They squander their advantages and allow the enemy to survive.
There was a time when the West had leaders like Roosevelt, Truman, Chruchill, men who called Nazis and Communists by name. Men who demanded unconditional surrender and would not rest until the enemy had submitted.
We need a Morgenthau plan for Iran, Lebanon and Syria.
Once before the US and Russia had to join forces to crush the greater evil. Together, the US and Russia could once again crush the greater evil.
Can anyone explain why the West remains impotent, unwilling to engage, unwilling to confront.
5 years! Longer than WW1, WW2. We have killed at most 10K enemy. Probably far less.
The main leaders in Damascus and Tehran and Baalbek sit unmolested, laughing at us as they prepare their next assault.
We allow the media and the UN to keep us in shackles.
I have said since Dec 2001, once it became clear we were not willing to wipe out Jihad, that it will take another 9/11 to put the West on the path it should have been on since the first one.
Unfortunately, it will take 10K dead in Manhattan, a nuke in LA or Washington, before the public demands that Mohammed be brought prostrate. That like Hirohito he kneel before Uncle Sam and kiss his ring.
I had thought that perhaps with tis latest crisis we would finally see the West show its resolve and crush Jihad. But it's just more of the same.
Does anyone know what it will take to finally bring about a decisive confrontation? What will it take for the West to wake up and smell the coffee?
It needs to happen. Once Tehran goes Nuclear, as the French say "Le Jeus son fait"
Sarah, the spittle on your face is most unbecoming. If you could just uncross your eyes for a few moments, and read a couple of things by people who are actually thinking it might be helpful.
The first would be Aristedes link - most interesting, in a thoughtful sort of way. I'm not remembering a single exclamation point in the whole thing.
For another thoughtful view with a slight spin, I would recommend this article, which beings: “Today, my ‘spider senses’ started to twitch when I watched a news story told from a hospital from Israeli troops who had just returned from inside Lebanon. They were talking about the Hezbollah troops like they were 20 feet tall, each of which had 6 popeye sized arms with a .50 caliber machine gun and a full belt of ammo in each oversized hand.
“I thought to myself for just a second, this doesn’t feel right.”
: http://varifrank.com/archives/2006/07/things_are_not.php
Here now, Sarah, take a tissue, wipe the phlegm off your face (it's most unattractive), run an ice cube over your forehead, and just settle down and READ. Then see if you can think before you start spouting "the sky is falling!" Chicken Little prophecies again. They become boring.
Perhaps I just need to rewatch my WW2 tapes. The World at War and the dulcet tones of Olivier as I recall an era where the West knew how to win.
In any event, the Israeli offensive will soon grind to a halt in the wake of this recent attack in Qana. Olmert will call it off by sundown tonight, most likely.
I don't think they'll go Nuclear anytime soon, unless they get it from elsewhere.
But who knows how much time we have and what will take place before then and now?
I thought we should have at least bombed sanctuaries and bomb making facilities killing us, Iraqis, and Israelis.
Instead, we get to watch them destroy themselves and pay the price in time and lives.
Said time leaving the world open for surprises in the meantime.
---
---
Why the Middle East Crisis Isn't Really About Terrorism
My nomination for the most wrongheaded article of the week.
What's wrong with Exclamation Points!
?
Especially when used like this:
The Russians are Coming!
The Russians are Coming!
Everybody to get from Street!
11:59 PM
Then its on to the sweets...
The road apples, I suppose.
An IAF strike in Qana got 35-45 civvies, it looks like. A replay of 96. That was the one thing Israel could not do, and they've done it. This is all over but the shouting.
If Bush was a real leader, he wouldn't care about what he dems or the media was saying. Do you think FDR would have cared?
Like I said, there will have to be a 2nd 9/11. Only then, and perhaps only after a 3rd 9/11, will the public finally come around and demand the extermination of Jihad. Will the Congress declare war on Jihad until Mohammed's unconditional surrender.
The blood of those who will die in the 2nd and 3rd 9/11 will be on Bush and Blair's hands.
20+ kids. The war will be over by sundown. Those clips will be played 24/7. HB's dreams have been realized.
I'm going to settle in to watch Nasrallah's victory speech on CNN later today.
It's not funny, Rufus. You may be chuckling, but Imad Mughniyeh and Hassan Nasrallah are not. Ali Khameini is not laughing. He is deadly serious. And it's about time that you and the President face up to it.
Rufus,
I was stationed at MCB, CamLej in '83. Knew 4 of the officers and 1 of the senior SNCO's in the barracks.
Rufus,
A kid called Cal Perry that works for CNN has discovered that War is Hell, and Ugly, and Bloody, and etc.
Hope the word gets around, maybe we can have our whirlled peas then.
---
I guess the Israelis should have brought in food and gifts in return for all the Rockets Tyre has launched their way.
---
That's what Kofi wants to do.
Where did you get the Weinberger info Rufus?
from the pro israel debka.com/ when even they are admitting defeat, there's really no way to hide it:
In Jerusalem, Rice was assigned with clinching Israeli concessions, which reportedly include:
1. Release of Lebanese prisoner in return for Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev. The argument is still ahead on the exact definition of “Lebanese prisoners.” defined.
2. Withdrawal of Israeli positions from the Shebaa Farms and the Mt. Hermon and Mt. Dov slopes and passes for the handover of these strategic points to the multinational force. This would give Nasrallah, who has been fighting to achieve this end for six years, his greatest triumph and give Syria and the Palestinians an object lesson on the application of brute force to obtain results.
3. Israel no longer presses for the disarming of Hizballah. That too is left to the “international community.”
In other words, just as Ariel Sharon and Ehud Olmert handed over the Gaza-Egyptian border terminals to a European unit in 2005 to expedite the pull-out from the Gaza Strip, so too is Olmert again entrusting to a foreign force the Israel-Lebanese border and the security of northern Israel - with the Shebaa Farms thrown in as an extra. This result lets Nasrallah come out on top after provoking a full-scale war and provides a boost for all the forces of fundamentalist Islamic terror waging war on the West. It is also the outcome of the Israeli army’s unfortunate failure to break the back of Hizballah in 18 days of combat.
Wretchard, and all you Belmont Club groupies - please make sure you read The Guardian interview with Hezbollah cleric Sayid Ali by Ghaith Abdul-Ahad published yesterday. You got the Hezbollah position with pin-point accuracy. Were you, by any chance, at the same school as Nasrallah? Have to go off now and beat my daughter up.
Let's face it. Psycho Ahmadinejad with his visions of wiping Israel off the map and creating a global Caliphate is the main cause of this "round of hostilities."
Ahmadinejad has for intense purposes triggered his "mutual defense pack" with Assad. The war is on.
Syria has been the main supply depot for Hezbollah, Hamas and other assorted terrorists. Ahmadinejad needs Syria to wage his proxy war (which seems to be more of direct war than a proxy war). Iran and Syria have to be dealt with sooner or later. The sooner the better.
Westhawk's analysis of the situation seems reasonable in that Syria and Iran must be dealt with soon. I don't think a "buffer zone" will stop the more sophisticated missiles from reaching Israel. And, sooner or later these missiles will carry warheads of mass destruction.
As for the French cease fire proposal - it's like a cheap used car ad with so many loopholes that one could not take it seriously. The only thing the French proposal does is make it look like the French are actually doing something (which they are not).
I seem to remember the French selling Saddam a nuclear reactor complete with U-235 which the Israelis had to take care of.
[Osiraq raid]:
...France agreed to build a research reactor along with associated laboratories. Iraq built the Osiraq 40 megawatt light-water nuclear reactor at the Al Tuwaitha Nuclear Center near Baghdad with French assistance. Approximately 27.5 pounds of 93% U-235 was supplied to Iraq by France for use in the Osiraq research reactor.
...According to some estimates, Iraq in 1981 was still as much as five to ten years away from the ability to build a nuclear weapon. Others estimated at that time that Iraq might get its first such weapon within a year or two. Prime Minister Menachem Begin felt military action was the only remedy... The raid would have to occur before its first fuel was to be loaded, before the reactor went "hot" so as not to endanger the surrounding community. The target was distant: 1,100 km from Israel... On 07 June 1981, the first F-15 and F-16's roared off the runway from Etzion Air Force Base in the south. Israeli air force planes flew over Jordanian, Saudi, and Iraqi airspace After a tense but uneventful low-level navigation route, the fighters reached their target. They popped up at 17:35 and quickly identified the dome gleaming in the late afternoon sunlight. Iraqi defenses were caught by surprise and opened fire too late. In one minute and twenty seconds, the reactor lay in ruins.
See: FAS Osiraq raid
Returning to the situation at hand. It appears that this is a war without boarders.
Clearly, Syria, Iran, and Hezbollah are operating in multiple states while Israel is confined to Lebanon. I would submit that if Israel were to conduct a few military operations beyond Lebanon the world would care little.
Iran and Syria are now joined at the hip. They are sending men and weapons against Israel. In this type of environment Israel certainly has the right of self defenses.
Further, Israel has exercised its right of self-defense in the past by striking enemy locations as needed. Take a look at the Yom Kippur War:
[Yom Kippur War]
October 9, 1973 – the : Yom Kippur War: The destruction of the Syrian General Staff in Damascus: On October 9, 1973, two F-4 Phantom quartets attacked and destroyed the Syrian General Staff Headquarters in the heart of Damascus. The Syrian Air Force Headquarters was damaged as well.
See: Yom Kippur War
Because Syria and Iran have ganged-up on Israel, I see no reason to restrain Israel from protecting herself.
As for the Iran problem, I think that immediate covert activity be conducted to let Mr. Ahmadinejad know that the stove can become very hot. So, hot that he might start concentrating about accidents in his own country. As of this date he has had the luxury of going on the offensive and fermenting battles in other countries. He should be put on the defensive now - and there are plenty of ways to do it.
regarding qana...
live by the kassam, die by the idf rocket....
according to the geneva convention, if you use babies and children in residential areas as cover for your firing, you are at fault...
Sarahweddington has become the punching bag of this site, not for being unreasonable, but because everyone on this site knows that she has at least a 50/50 chance of being right. And that hurts.
From 1956 through the present, we have seen one American administration after another bungle foreign policy in southwest Asia. We now face the very real possibility of a nuclear armed Iran because of the failures of both the Carter and Reagan administrations. Since 2003, the armed forces of the US have been struggling in Iraq because of the failures of the Bush I and Clinton administrations. If time and patience permitted, I could elaborate ad infinitum, ad nauseum, but that isn’t necessary since the contributors to this site are cognizant of the facts.
For Aristides’ assessment and prognostication to pan out will require the fulfillment of a good many “Ifs”. The probability of that happening is far less likely than the dire predictions of sarah, in the light of history. Whether it will be aristides with egg on his face or sarah drenched in spittle will not be known for a while, but we know where the odds-makers would place their bets.
The Lebanese government can muster riot police to protect the parliament building but cannot find a way to do anything about HB firing rockets into Israel? No tears for Lebanon.
If they are unable to muster the will to rid themselves of the human cancer they have allowed to invade them they can suffer the same cure. If justice prevailed Kofi Annan and his minions would be tied to HB rocket launchers with their eyes to the sky.
SarahWeddington said...
from the pro israel debka.com/ when even they are admitting defeat, there's really no way to hide it:
i dont blame sarah for posting this, but i do find everything she says is about the defeat of israel.
as for debka, they are not perfect, however i would not hold your breath, funny 100 "civilians" are killed every day in iraq..
and yet..
rufus et al,
If you doubt that sarah is on to something, read the AP quotes of Dr. Rice's press conference. She hit the party-line lure: hook, line, and sinker.
It's about the children, don't you know.
Rice postpones trip to Beirut after attack - http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/
20060730/ap_on_go_pr_wh/rice
The administration's remarks might have spoken to the war criminals of Hezbollah (use of human shields etc) and the continued violations of international law (thousands of unrelenting rocket attacks on Israel). But why allow the facts to waste a perfectly good opportunity to show our empathy with the "Religion of Peace"?
allen 4:32 AM
Well said.
For those just waking, Mr. Chirac says, "France condemns this unjustifiable action…” This Mr. Chirac is probably the president of the NATO member France, which would be tasked with equitably enforcing a “demilitarization” of Hezbollah and a cease-fire.
Oh, there is more: Great Britain has implicitly suggested Israeli disproportionality. The UK is also a member of NATO.
There is no word yet from Germany. When they wake, they will probably have some ennobling things to say as well.
How’s that NATO thing going to work again?
Interesting site. I track after the truth too..... and try to help others understand it.
shmuel
jerusalem, israel
www.exitthecave.blogspot.com
Hmmm... France... islamic problems... they are so good at keeping the peace...
Why does the term 'Car-B-Q' keep coming to mind?
allen said:
Great Britain has implicitly suggested Israeli disproportionality. The UK is also a member of NATO.There is no word yet from Germany. When they wake, they will probably have some ennobling things to say as well
You mean the same Germans who thought calling off the Munich Olympics in '72 after eleven Israeli athletes were butchered would be disproportionate?
Oh yes world leaders should be effusive with praise responding to an errant bomb attack that kills fifty plus civilians, half-children. For the record that ties the 56 people, including the 4 bombers, who were killed in the 7 July 2005 London terroristic train bombings. Why that is hardly noteworthy by an English politician. Maybe some threshold has not yet been crossed where they should criticize Israel. We could have an office pool and pick the number of civilian casualties that make Israel worthy of some criticism.
Israel has tried to do what cannot be done and that is to rely on air power to do what their army will not or cannot. It is predictable and numerous people on this blog predicted this at the beginning.
Explain to me again how Israel is going to take out Iran with her air power.
If this were a more rational and honest world wouldn't Bush, Blair and Chirac be asking the question why do UNSC resolutions get passed and never enforced? The so called international community is broken and nobody ever talks about it?
Sinora didn't have any problem finding Kofi's phone number today. Why couldn't he find it to ask for help enforcing 1559?
If Olmert's big plan was to get international help disarming HB he is a bigger fool than I thought.
Rufus,
It was more than no rounds in the rifles...the commanders on the ground were not allowed by the diplos and pols to prepare the ground in front of what was a defensive position; a lesson taught to every new Lieutenant at The Basic School in the first 10 weeks. The diplos and pols were afraid of the "occupation" allegation by "the international community".
That truck was the largest conventional bomb in history until MOAB was created. The sentries having rounds would not have changed the result much had the driver managed to detonate outside the building. The building itself was another contributory factor; it was lift slab construction, which means all it needed was a good push. Manuals on urban defensive warfare should contain sections on avoiding/forbidding garrisoning in lift slab buildings. In a war zone, they are tombs waiting to happen.
2164th,
You are being ridiculous. How about "world leaders" acting like leaders? I am thinking about uniting behind the injured party (Israel) and pointing a collective finger at the guilty - unpolitic to be sure, but refreshing.
2164th,
Sorry. "ridiculous?"
HT LGF,
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=6162397493278181614&q=Obsession%3A+What+The+War+on+Terror+Is+Really+About&hl=en
Looks as if a lot more killen gonna be necessary.
If we're really lucky, Sarah will suicide in despair when Hizbollah runs up the white flag, and we won't have to read her drivel any more.
rufus,
Some things can be negotiated, some not.
When I buy real estate or a car, I negotiate.
When someone attempts to deprive me of life, liberty, or the pursuit of happiness, I do not negotiate.
In this household (heavily armed and trained) we mean "never again" and we do not feel obliged to ask permission in pursuit of self-preservation.
The matter of Shebaa Farms is not so simple. See http://www.meib.org/articles/
0105_l1.htm
While written in May 2001, it has a contemporary ring. Oh, note that the late Mr. Hariri had not yet been murdered by Israel's peace partner Syria/Lebanon.
Although Shebaa might play into negotiation with Lebanon, not an inch should be surrendered for the expediency of the French or anyone else. Sharks can smell blood.
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