Monday, July 31, 2006

To Climb the Mountain Or Stop

Some indication of the internal debate within the Israeli government may be gathered from Benjamin Netanyahu's speech at the Knesset. Traditionally opposition politicians are supposed to mute their criticisms in time of war. Netanyahu's words were on their face both an encouragement and warning.


A third of the country is paralyzed because of this. Who knows whether this will include other citizens as well. This is a strategic threat…that requires a strategic victory. Those were the objectives set out by the government, justly, wisely, and boldly. They were presented to the security cabinet on the 13th of this month.

I know there's immense unification in order to achieve the objectives. It comes from all parts of the country because people know we're facing a different threat. This isn't merely a militia. In order to remove this threat, we recieved support from our greatest friend, the US, which rightfully said: We must do something, because if we don't, what have we done?

The journey of war is like any other journey. It starts easily but midway there's a difficult junction where we must decide whether we continue to climb the mountain or stop, and I call on the government: Don't stop midway. Complete the job.

Some members of the Olmert Cabinet understood that if the war stopped today, it would be a strategic victory for the Hezbollah. The Israeli Justice Minister said:

Justice Minister Haim Ramon said that despite the decision to suspend the air campaign, the war in Lebanon has not ended. "If the war ends today, it would be a victory for Hizbullah and global terrorism and would have far reaching consequences," he told Army Radio. "I'm convinced that we won't finish this war until it's clear that Hizbullah has no more abilities to attack Israel from south Lebanon. This is what we are striving for," he said.

And yet it was far from clear that Israel could stop the fighting when it chose. Some had believed that the IAF's announced bombing halt would be matched by Hezbollah. That hope ended when five rockets were fired into Gallilee. Hezbollah would fire when it would whatever Israel did.

A salvo of five rockets slammed into the Galilee early Monday afternoon, shattering a half-day of quiet and hopes that Hezbollah had suspended its launchings in response to curbs of IAF activity. ... Earlier in the day, a Lebanese parliamentarian from Hezbollah hinted that the group may be willing to put its attacks on hold, in the wake of a 48-hour cessation of Israel Air Force strikes, sparked by the deaths of 56 Lebanese civilians in the southern town of Qana on Sunday.

Yet even with an Israeli victory apparently distant -- even with an Israeli resumption of hostilities so uncertain -- international diplomacy has expressed confidence that a ceasefire and lasting peace was attainable within a week. Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice said, "As I head back to Washington, I take with me an emerging consensus on what is necessary for both a cease-fire and a lasting settlement. I am convinced we can achieve both this week." Tony Blair said "You know the position of Israel, now there's a statement from the UN Security Council which shows the right degree of unity in the international community. What's important now is that we have a real chance of getting a UN Security Council resolution, which will give us an opportunity both to have a complete cessation of hostilities and to do so on a sustainable and lasting basis."

The only way the distance to victory can be reconciled with the apparent nearness of a ceasefire is to assume that one of the parties at war had dropped a basic demand in the "lasting peace" formula; that one of the parties is willing to settle for less than they started for. That party, absent any evidence to the contrary, is likely to be Israel. Perhaps sensing this, Netanyahu has brought up the decisions of the "security cabinet on the 13th of this month" to warn to Olmert not to renege on an earlier decision to win "a strategic victory"; to "complete the job"

But the latest accounts of IDF activities in Lebanon which have been described as "reshaping the border" cannot be described as a strategic campaign in any meaningful sense of the word. It is still a preparation if it is anything. The strategic part of the campaign implicit in Netanyahu's words: "a strategic victory. Those were the objectives set out by the government, justly, wisely, and boldly. They were presented to the security cabinet on the 13th of this month" -- the campaign the cabinet decided on -- was not yet in evidence. The question is whether it remains on the agenda. Netanyahu added that "midway there's a difficult junction where we must decide whether we continue to climb the mountain or stop, and I call on the government: Don't stop midway. Complete the job."

Completing the job sets up a direct collision with the ceasefire scheduled within the week. It's possible to have a strategic campaign or a ceasefire. But it will be very difficult to have both.

104 Comments:

Blogger fjelehjifel said...

If Israel cannot help the United States by destroying Hezbollah, a goal very much in our mutual interest, then what good is Israel?

7/31/2006 05:40:00 AM  
Blogger DC said...

What good is Israel? My concern is that our government pressures Israel and they lose heart. Quam is looking more like a Hezbollah PR stunt to stop the fighting.

We need to be saying the same things we said early on and to encourage Israel just like Netanyahu is doing ...

Finish the job.

7/31/2006 05:50:00 AM  
Blogger What is "Occupation" said...

thank you ffe for your support...

the usa should have destroyed hezbollah after they murdered 240 + american marines

the usa should have destroyed hezbollah after they kidnapped and tortured buckley

the usa should have destroyed hezbollah after they hijacked the TWA flight and executed our navy seal that was a PASSENGER on board

as for HELPING the USA, i dare say hezbollah has been hurt, regardless of claims of victory by hezbollah, one fact is not being discussed:

the IRANIAN/HEZBALLAH threat of "missiles" raining down on israel has been neutered, they have shot their wad... 150 missiles a day, and pardon my crudeness, how many have the killed? 30, 40 israelis? after 19 days of missile rain? pardon me here, this takes out a major IRANIAN trump card.

Israel does understand that if hezbollah wins, israel dies....

go back in history, the seige of beirut lasted 2 months and almost destroyed the entire city...

I think the pot, that has slowly been turned up will be akin to the frog sitting in the pan...

Yes, bibi has tweaked the nose of olmert, but in the end, all israelis understand the concept of living in bomb shelters and will not take it without a real fight...

patience...

again, i go back to the world in 1967 & 73 with calls for ceasefires...

the world under the asshole UTHANT and the world under the asshole Koffi is DIFFERENT....

When you read the words coming out of the UN it is UNLIKE any words uttered since 1948.. Israel is NOT being crucified like it USUALLY IS... Scolded, barely, but if you read how the UN has screwed around before against israel it IS a new world..

go gillerman

go bolton

7/31/2006 05:52:00 AM  
Blogger desert rat said...

If the US pressures the Israeli to stop, and they do not, will Mr Olmert face Mr Diem's fate?

The US is often a feckless friend, historiclly.

7/31/2006 05:54:00 AM  
Blogger desert rat said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

7/31/2006 06:07:00 AM  
Blogger desert rat said...

For those interested in the Saud mobilization, Dr K is on the move.
Reminjing US that Iran is the real problem and the Lebanon crisis is but a minor part of the show.
WaPo
The Next Steps with Iran
Negotiations Must Go Beyond the Nuclear Threat to Broader Issues

7/31/2006 06:08:00 AM  
Blogger Habu_3 said...

Syria and Iran. Destroy Damascus ans Tehran.

Thats the game. This other feint is lame.

Damascus and Tehran. It's really not a hard concept to grasp. We don't need to occupy an inch of territory to slow them down. Just bomb the hell out of them.

Yes, I'm aware Germany's war production under the direction of Albert Speer was higher after the bombing than before. I am aware that the Soviets moved to the east side of the Urals and continued manufacturing following Germany's bombing of them.
This isn't that war so let's try real hard not to refight that one and just destroy the capitals of Syria and Iran. Trust me it will slow them down.
Oh you say it will create more Islamofascists. You can't convince me that their hatred for the US and Israel could reach greater heights.
"what is occupations" points are well taken.

7/31/2006 06:15:00 AM  
Blogger desert rat said...

As to the Israeli giving folk the "opportunity" to evacuate during the "Lull", turns out it was but a lie.

They continue to target civilian vehicles, destroying a car and killing some of the occupants. Turns out IDF intel sucked and they killed Innocents.

"... In a second airstrike around the port city of Tyre, Israel accidentally killed a Lebanese soldier when it hit a car that it believed was carrying a senior Hezbollah official, the Israeli army said. Lebanese security officials said the soldier was killed by a rocket strike from a pilotless drone aircraft.

The Israeli army justified the action, saying the leader believed to have been in the car was a threat to Israel. Instead, the car was carrying a Lebanese army officer and soldiers.

"They were, of course, not the targets and we regret the incident," the army said. ..."

7/31/2006 06:22:00 AM  
Blogger desert rat said...

BAGHDAD, Iraq -- Iraq's vice president on Monday accused Israel of carrying out "massacres" in Lebanon, the strongest criticism yet of the Jewish state by a top official of the U.S-backed Iraqi government.

Vice President Adel Abdul-Mahdi, a Shiite, singled out Sunday's Israeli airstrike that killed at least 56 Lebanese, mostly women and children, in the village of Qana. The deadliest attack in nearly three weeks of fighting has triggered an international uproar. ...

..."These horrible massacres carried out by the Israeli aggression, incites in us the spirit of brotherhood and solidarity," he said in a speech attended by Iraq's president, the prime minister and other top government officials.

7/31/2006 06:26:00 AM  
Blogger Mr.Atos said...

Was it Farragut, who said "Damn the Torpedoes..."? World opinion seems to be firing volley after volley of torpedoes against Israel, even as Hez fires volley after volley of real missiles. Surely Israel must find the courage to plow full speed ahead to their objective. There they can sort out the consequences of the torpedoes from the behind the butt rather than in front of ten thousand muzzels.

7/31/2006 06:29:00 AM  
Blogger Habu_3 said...

DR
Hard to understand your logic.
Israel is the lier. They continue to target civilians..
That's just sarcasm right?

If not then you still need some schooling on warfare.

7/31/2006 06:37:00 AM  
Blogger Juan Golblado said...

Al Sistani's threat today that any country that stood in the way of a ceasefire was an enemy of Muslims was a direct threat to the US in Iraq.

Perhaps a bigger threat is this:
French foreign minister Philippe Douste-Blazy said during today’s visit to Lebanon that Iran is a respected, stabilizing force in the Middle East. (Haaretz)

7/31/2006 06:38:00 AM  
Blogger What is "Occupation" said...

desert rat said... As to the Israeli giving folk the "opportunity" to evacuate during the "Lull", turns out it was but a lie.

They continue to target civilian vehicles, destroying a car and killing some of the occupants. Turns out IDF intel sucked and they killed Innocents.

desert, last time i checked "lebonese military" are not civilian vehicles, and quite truthfully fair game...
Hezboillah is Lebanon and Lebanon is NOW Hezbollah...

any car carrying several adult men driving in southern lebanon is good to shoot...

stated or unstated, it's the rules of the game...

go israel, hit a few more cars with "innocent adult men" driving around southern lebanon

7/31/2006 06:41:00 AM  
Blogger wretchard said...

Israel has reached the point, whatever it does, where is has very little chance of coexisting with the surrounding states. They want Israel destroyed. The US on the other hand, still has diplomatic possibilities with Arab and Muslim countries. In that sense US and Israeli interests do not completely coincide.

The choice at some point will be whether the US is willing to follow Israel into war with the entire Muslim world, inasmuch as the entire Muslim world is determined to go to war with Israel. The smarter people in the Arab world know this situation is a recipe for disaster, and so to, do people like Nasrallah and Ahmadinejad who desire it. But since the Arabs are more or less powerless to suppress their extremists, they are more or less tugged into this fatal current. And a train wreck is set up.

Israel had a chance here to take on Hezbollah, but for reasons historians will discourse on in the future, it pursued what has so far been a peripheral campaign. But Israel can't stop now. It's entered the dark tunnel and there's no way back, though perhaps Olmert wants one.

It's Israel now that has the problem. And perhaps that's good. Unless the "international community" can help out and kill Hezbollah, Israel will shake the region to pieces. The Arab world has put it in a position where it will rip up the house unless they liquidate Hezbollah.

The Iraqis, Sauds and Egyptians can say what they like. If they can't help Israel out, they'll all go up in flames. In a way, a more determined man than Olmert might just light up a cigarette, straighten his shades, yell yee-hah and stomp on the accelerator. To make him stop they would have to offer up Nasrallah. How's Olmert gonna stop if the Hez keep lobbing rockets into Israel? He can't stop. The rockets fired on Israel today show that.

7/31/2006 06:50:00 AM  
Blogger 2164th said...

A weak friend can be a dangerous friend. They can dictate inconvenient times to get you involved in something that is not suitable to your timing. GWB, the imperious, has foolishly followed flawed advice, based on serious misjudgements and has seriously weakened US diplomacy and military credibility. I have been dreading this emperor without clothes getting us futher involved in any additional ME ventures. Fate has been unkind in that we will not have the benefit of the most qualified leadership in wherever this thing will take us. Israeli leadership shines no brighter. We have to finish off Hezbollah. That is very clear. We are stuck with the cards we dealt ourselves. After we win this engagement, we better take a long hard look at where we are going in this world that has clearly changed for the worse.

7/31/2006 06:51:00 AM  
Blogger CatoRenasci said...

This is no time for Israel - as Margeret Thatcher would say - to "go wobbly" and fail to finish the job. Of course, if the rest of the world wants Israel to stop fighting (but seems perfectly content to have the Palestinians, Hezbollah and Iranians working to push the Jews into the Mediterranean) and the US is so squeamish about casualties (mostly ours, but also civilian) that we have failed to apply sufficient force to eliminate both the Sunni and Shia insurgencies, it's hard to fault the Israelis for being tentative and holding back.

This is part, as everyone with half-a-brain says, of a much larger war. Failure to win now, means more war and a harder war later.

If we don't all steel ourselves to killing thousands, even tens of thousands, now, we will have hundreds of thousands, if not millions of casualties later, and when we finally do "go postal" as we did on the Germans and Japanese, there will be tens, if not hundreds, of millions dead.

It is so disheartening that so few people see the obvious fact that you cannot negotiate with those who want you dead or enslaved.

7/31/2006 07:02:00 AM  
Blogger luc said...

Yesterday I thought of skipping over comments made by Sarah Weddington because she was so negative it was boring. Today I will skip over her comments because she was so negative and, now it looks, she was also right. I tried to tell myself that, in spite of what I am seeing, that I am somehow wrong and that I am missing the hidden strategy. Maybe the strategy is so well hidden that the good guys can no longer find it :( :(
Luc

7/31/2006 07:05:00 AM  
Blogger Habu_3 said...

2164..

I believe you are taking W's secrecy for imperiousness.

He well knows the situation. He has however managed to keep a White House that manages secrecy better than any of the past presidents of recent memory.
This riles the press and certain segments of the population because they have developed an impresssion that they have the "right" to know what's going on at any given time.
Wrong.
You have the right to vote every two years for 100% of the House 33% of the Senate. You have the right to vote for President evry four years.
You have the Bill of Rights.
But you don't have the right of instant insight into US foreigh policy or war making.
Imperious, I think not.

7/31/2006 07:07:00 AM  
Blogger wretchard said...

luc,

Don't worry too much about winning this one in one round. Worry about winning it. The most certain thing about the coming days is that no one, absolutely no one, can figure out what's going to happen in particular.

But if you're worried that peace will break out all of a sudden in the Middle East and that rainbows will spangle the sky, rest easy. A ceasefire has about as much chance of surviving a month as a snowball in hell. If you ask me, war is a given. Israel will get its "chance". Heck, it doesn't have the option to pass.

7/31/2006 07:09:00 AM  
Blogger What is "Occupation" said...

wretchard said... They want Israel destroyed.


Very Clear, this is what makes me happy, the mask has finally been ripped/pull off. Just watching the goosestepping hezbollah shows the world they are the modern nazis. Reading Hamas, Iran & Hezbollah own words are "A world without zionism"

Today, 60 yrs after the so-called defeat of the fascists, the final nazi battle is firming up, this can be traced directly to the lack of accountablity on the middle east after ww2 (thanks oil, london & cold war)

Does the world want a world where Hezbollah, Hamas & Iran set the standard for decency?

IS the world wanting to be lectured by Egyptian or Saudi points of true human rights and pluralistic democracy?

The storm clouds of Mordor have grown.. Many have choosen to turn away and look the other way..

and now it's time for the hobbits to fight the fight.

IS it any wonder that Israel, (the people of israel and jews around the world) all 10 million of them are faced (AGAIN) with the 300 million children of Hagar, combined with 68 million of decendents of Haman?


wretchard: The US on the other hand, still has diplomatic possibilities with Arab and Muslim countries. In that sense US and Israeli interests do not completely coincide.


Does it really beyond oil? What kind of america will we have if we allow the final solution to be bought for oil. If america makes it's deal for oil and allows Israel to die, it will have profound vibrations beyond thought. It will destroy America in the end.

wretchard: The choice at some point will be whether the US is willing to follow Israel into war with the entire Muslim world, inasmuch as the entire Muslim world is determined to go to war with Israel.

I think the entire arab & iranian leadership wants war, but the other 900 moslems, not sure.

wretchard:
Israel had a chance here to take on Hezbollah, but it pursued what has so far been a peripheral campaign.


patience wretchard, patience



2164th said... . We have to finish off Hezbollah..... we are going in this world that has clearly changed for the worse.

I dont agree, all that has changed is that finally it's becoming honest, they honestly want to murder all jews, christians and non-islamic peoples (starting with jews) But today we are fightling back. Remember when Germany, Japan, Italy, Arab world (thanks vichy france) Most of europe were under the AXIS contol?

today, is different, today the non-aligned movement is in shambles. india has a dog in the fight, Israel has weapons (wow jews fighting this time, cool)

Is it worse?

last time i checked 60,000,000 million died in ww2...

7/31/2006 07:22:00 AM  
Blogger geistern said...

What a frakking echo chamber this is. You all sit around telling each other what Olmert and Bush should be doing. Wringing your hands and bemoaning the fate of the world. So what can be done? What are some steps that can be taken? Where can each one of us put our puny little shoulders and push? Any ideas? Or is this all "sound and fury, signifying nothing"?

7/31/2006 07:26:00 AM  
Blogger desert rat said...

Of course, habu, I understand "War". It is a given that Israel is at war with Lebanon. As I said weeks ago. The conflict is not limited to HB and to continue to claim that gives proof to the lie.

I'd advise cleansing everyone south of the river. But that strategy is a "War Crime" and rejected, out of hand, by the US.

This was a well known fact, by the Israeli, on DDay. They strategy without clear a large Zone is destined to fail. If the Bekaa is not cleared, Israel has failed in obtaining it's stated Goal.

As we speak Mr Bush is speaking of "Lasting Peace" in the Middle East. He is blaming HB, now, not Iran or Syria except to say thet must "stop".

Democracy will bring Peace. As it has in Lebanon, Palistine and Iraq.

War or retreat.

7/31/2006 07:29:00 AM  
Blogger GoatGuy said...

Wretchard, et al:

Please remember (and repeat) that a one-sided cease-fire is illogical at the core.

There can be no one-sided "cease-fires", when the other side continues its salvo. To stop both defensively and offensively responding to incoming ordinance has only two descriptive nouns that apply: surrender or subterfuge.

Since Israel has hardly laid down her arms in a failed bid against the Hezbullah (and since she is keenly aware that any cease-fire will be viewed as a proxy victory for the Hez), we must assume that Israel is using the unilateral lull for subterfuge - planning and executing large troop redeployments, ground action.

Again, let's just not promote the absurd fiction that there can be a one-sided 'cease-fire'. If a country ceases to fire unilaterally, then she either is regrouping on different military objectives, or has surrendered.

[The only reason I invest the time in these comments is that I feel we need to be on guard against the Orwellian redefinition of that-which-we-understand into that-which-means-nothing-or-the-opposite.]

7/31/2006 07:30:00 AM  
Blogger geistern said...

Ok guys. I'm still waiting for may instructions. You are the heavy thinkers. I am just a member of the the milling, cyber mob. What do you want me to do?

Here I stand with cyber pitchfork and cyber torch in hand. What direction should I stampede in?

Oh well, I'm off to lift weights so I can carry my torch. Let me know what you elders decide when I get back.

7/31/2006 07:38:00 AM  
Blogger rufus said...

I'm slipping. I missed it by 6 1/2 hrs.

7/31/2006 07:39:00 AM  
Blogger allen said...

As usual, Spengler has written another thought provoking piece. Like some on this site, Spengler thinks a golden opportunity to crush Hezbollah/Syria/Iran/Islamofascism has been thrown to the wind, but not without the possibility of redemption.

"Israel, in summary, remains in denial about the failure of its withdrawal policy since 2000, and Washington remains in denial about the absurdity of its plan to stabilize the Middle East through democracy."

"I very much doubt that President George W Bush has either the brains or the stomach to press America's advantage."

When the devil dislikes the stink of brimstone
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/
Middle_East/HH01Ak01.html

7/31/2006 07:46:00 AM  
Blogger wretchard said...

Relax rufus,

It's come around again. 17:34 Bush: Iran, Syria must end their support for Hezbollah (Reuters).17:33 IDF denies responsibility for bombing near Beirut airport (Haaretz). 17:25 UN official: UN indefinitely postpones meeting on new int`l force for Lebanon (Reuters). Mubarak: Entire ME peace process could collapse.

Give it another hour and it'll be different again.

7/31/2006 07:46:00 AM  
Blogger Doug Santo said...

I must admit to being somewhat disappointed in the Israeli response to Hezbollah. It is difficult to analyze the situation in detail because information available in the media is poor. On the positive side, I believe Israel has had significant success in destroying and disrupting Hezbollah resources in the south of Lebanon. On the negative side, I believe this is not enough.

Victory for Israel (and the US) comes through destruction of Hezbollah entirely. Victory for Hezbollah comes through surviving the Israeli onslaught. So far, by their limited ground campaign, the Israelis appear to be making it easier for Hezbollah to survive.

I do not have a good handle on Israeli military capabilities, but I believe the IDF is capable of much more. And it is possible that they have achieved more on the ground then is generally recognized.

I anticipated a preliminary IDF bombardment from artillery and the air to soften up the Hezbollah front lines, which I anticipated would be relatively hard, but thin. At the same time I anticipated a significant military call up. When a significant IDF force (2 to 3 divisions) was in place on the border, I anticipated multiple armored penetrations of the Hezbollah front lines. The penetrations would occur at 4 or more locations along the border mostly in the center and east. The penetrations would cut Hezbollah communications and supply axes with Syria. The penetrations would rapidly advance to the Litanyi River or some other natural or man-made defensive positions and spread out along an east-west battle line to cut Hezbollah communications and supply from northern Lebanon. The armor penetrations could have been accompanied by an amphibious operation where the Litanyi meets the ocean. IDF air operations would protect flanks, interdict counter attacks from the north and further soften up the newly created south Lebanon pocket.

Once the pocket is formed, the armor units would attack west from the Syrian border and south from the Litanyi line. The bulk of the southern Hezbollah force would be surrounded and defeated in detail. Hezbollah equipment and infrastructure in the south would be completely destroyed.

At this point, ceasefire and an international force could be called in.

I miss Sharon.

Doug Santo
Pasadena, CA

PS – The Qana situation is a terrible tragedy, but it is an obvious setup by Hezbollah to turn world opinion against Israel. The same as the UN outpost. War is terrible. The west must not flinch.

7/31/2006 07:51:00 AM  
Blogger Habu_3 said...

dr,
thanks for the clarification.
i thought for a minute i wasn't reading you correctly and i wasn't.

i do however believe that war crimes charges are brought by the victors,not the vanquished, so the US and Israel must fight this now and coming war for all the marbles.then we must abrogate our treaties with the world court and get ready for the new challenge from china and russia via their surrogates in south america.
as has been stated by others many times, and i must agree, peace is an aberration, war is the norm.*
*stylization by e.e. cummings

7/31/2006 07:51:00 AM  
Blogger allen said...

wretchard,

It seems that this is a time when the Israeli public, quite out of character, is ahead of its government. This is not a border dust-up, it is the beginning of an existential war and the Israeli public knows/senses it.

While merely an opinion, I have the feeling that the Olmert government is desperately hoping to be hobbled by this week's UN resolution. The question then is whether Mr. Netanyahu et al, following the public's lead will bring down Mr. Olmert and ultimately defy the "world community", even at the risk of jeopardizing its symbiotic/parasitic relationship with the US.

Without a revolutionary paradigm shift on its part, leading to the decisive defeat of its antagonists, Israel will be slowly pulled down by the whirlpool of implacable Arab enmity.

7/31/2006 07:57:00 AM  
Blogger desert rat said...

Two different perspective of the current local conflict are promoted in these two pieces.

Ben Stein writes We are in real serious trouble, and I'll tell you how and why I know it:

Then in the Guardian they proclaim Washington's partners in this hypocritical war on terror are given free rein to wreak their own brutal, illegal violence

I am in agreement with Mr Stein, but the Guardian piece certainly has it's adherents. Check out some of the comments following the piece.

Hard to build consensus about a bunch of local brush fire wars

7/31/2006 08:28:00 AM  
Blogger skipsailing said...

This I believe is the real problem.

Wretchard said:
" But since the Arabs are more or less powerless to suppress their extremists, they are more or less tugged into this fatal current. And a train wreck is set up."

The entire arab/muslim culture faces a choice. Lebanon was a microcosm of that choice. the Lebanese allowed their hatred of the jews to overcome their worries about hezbullah and new they are dragged into a bloody mess.

this is the same choice that the rest of the muslim world faces. Our gracious host believes that the arabs can't stop the extremists, but I suspect it's more a question of Won't rather than can't.

Despotic rulers will brutally efficient enforcement agencies could rout the radicals in short order. But they chose to allow this hatred to drag the world into a massive confrontation.

but why? I believe that this is inertia. The arabs have become used to the west limiting itself. They've learned the limits of our tolerance and stay well below it while engaging in a low level bleed that is designed to weaken our numbers and our resolve.

the difference this time around is the response from this White house and the preponderance of evidence that Islam is the root cause.

Instead of formulaic platitudes, the Iranians are being named. Instead of empty headed rhetoric, westerners are starting to see the very clear pattern.

the question is, can we overcome our self imposed limitations in enough time to limit the conflagration or will it take another convulsion with deaths in the millions?

Swift, brutal action now might gain universal comdemnation from the chattering denial mongers, but it also will save millions of lives and years of anguish.

7/31/2006 08:29:00 AM  
Blogger hdgreene said...

Some folks think that the way to Peace is through the destruction of Israel.

In fact every group fighting Israel wants a different "End State" and they are not exactly into peaceful negotiation. I am by no means a expert but here is a partial list:

Syria claims not just Lebanon, but much of northern Israel. Of course the claims of the Baathist won't stop there.

Jordan has dropped its claims in the area but conditional on a peace with Israel -- which ain't happening. In fact it will have to renew them because--

Palestinians want their fascist state -- but most want it to include Jordan.

Will Egypt stand by while chaos reigns, or grab for itself?

Also, terrorism will be seen as a great success that will be applied throughout the Middle East and the world.

So in fact, it is best for everyone that Israel survive -- including most of its enemy populations (their leaders is another question).

7/31/2006 08:33:00 AM  
Blogger rufus said...

If you're going to fight a "War," you had better know Who you are fighting.

I think there's a lot of "Misperceiving" going on.

7/31/2006 08:46:00 AM  
Blogger Habu_3 said...

dr

thanks for the two articles on the current situation.
since the guardian is so much a leftist commie rag i didn't waste eye time on it. it's the same shit you get from all socialists.
Ben Stein is wrong in one area. our use of terrorist tactics. our country has a good record of foreign and home grown terrorists. if need be men such as myself have absolutely no problem killing with terror. actually many friends of mine have experience. the Phoenix program. granted it's edgy stuff and as an old guy i might have to sharpen the skills but, hey, come on down and let's do some islamo killing. should the need arise.i promise you i won't go peacefully into the night ..too many good and great men have fought to give me continued freedom. i will not let their efforts be eclisped by some shit hole islamic religion.

7/31/2006 08:51:00 AM  
Blogger Habu_3 said...

soon i tell ya'll how i really feel

7/31/2006 08:53:00 AM  
Blogger Woman Catholic said...

Mr Atos said:

Was it Farragut, who said "Damn the Torpedoes..."? World opinion seems to be firing volley after volley of torpedoes against Israel, even as Hez fires volley after volley of real missiles.

Ah, yes, but back in the Civil War era, torpedoes meant passive mines. But the imagery holds, Israel feels it must navigate a mine field where public-relations fiascos can blow up in their face at any moment. Taking a few thousand rounds of unguided little rockets with 100 kg warheads isn't an existential threat (only a threat to peace of mind and the good life) and so Israel feels it must worry about the Main Stream Media Mines. When the jihadists switch to chemical or biological or "dirty" radiological bombs, maybe the Israeli leadership will quit dicking around. Or maybe the Israeli voter will change the leadership before then.

7/31/2006 08:54:00 AM  
Blogger redaktør said...

Israelis are world champions in Judo. Other than Wretchard, the rest of you here should pipe down and learn.

7/31/2006 09:00:00 AM  
Blogger Habu_3 said...

redaktør said,

"Other than Wretchard, the rest of you here should pipe down and learn."

redxxx, what did you say?

if we did that this blog would fold up as would all blogs. it needs grist for the mill.
i respect wretchard's comments and his site. therefore i try to supply my share of grist.
so here's some grist..go take a fly'in leap ..ask they say in the schoolyard ..bite me

7/31/2006 09:11:00 AM  
Blogger Buddy Larsen said...

If there is no grist,
we can't get pissed.
You'll all be missed.
and that's the gist.

7/31/2006 09:16:00 AM  
Blogger ambisinistral said...

I anticipated a preliminary IDF bombardment from artillery and the air to soften up the Hezbollah front lines, which I anticipated would be relatively hard, but thin. At the same time I anticipated a significant military call up. When a significant IDF force (2 to 3 divisions) was in place on the border, I anticipated multiple armored penetrations of the Hezbollah front lines. The penetrations would occur at 4 or more locations along the border mostly in the center and east. The penetrations would cut Hezbollah communications and supply axes with Syria. The penetrations would rapidly advance to the Litanyi River or some other natural or man-made defensive positions and spread out along an east-west battle line to cut Hezbollah communications and supply from northern Lebanon. The armor penetrations could have been accompanied by an amphibious operation where the Litanyi meets the ocean. IDF air operations would protect flanks, interdict counter attacks from the north and further soften up the newly created south Lebanon pocket.

Doug Santos,

That is what the Iranians also expected. After the Israeli incursions into Gaza over the kidnapped soldier, the Hezbollah kidnappings were a clear attempt to provoke a war. The Iranians had a motive for starting this war.

Had Israel responded according to the script above, by the 22nd of August they would have been fully mobilized for six weeks. I'll say it again, the Israelis haven't snapped at the bait dangled before them.

If Iran does have something up their sleeve for the 22nd of August, and I think they do, then their game pieces are already in motion. If so, we'll see how flexible they are when their plans meet reality.

7/31/2006 09:18:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

Nice Evidence of Fake Heros and Dead Muslim Children
(we'll see how Blogger handles a Rush link, too)
---
Limbaugh scheduled to interview Netanyahu ad 12:30 eastern.
rushlimbaugh.com

7/31/2006 09:18:00 AM  
Blogger Buddy Larsen said...

Kissinger, re UN1696 and the (scheduled?) meeting on Condi's call for a "resolution on terrorist organizations" says "crucial month" coming, where "much depends on the wisdom and strength of the United States."

7/31/2006 09:21:00 AM  
Blogger texas said...

First, really appreciate the blog and comments. First rate.

So a question ... given modern weapons, can Israel survive in a non-secular Middle East?

It would seem that even if HB is very severely damaged now - even effectively destroyed - Israel's real strategic problem remains. At best, they can kicked the can down the road a few years.

As long as the Arab/Muslim world retains its current animus toward Israel and the West, and Iran is run by a non-secular fanatic government, eventually they will acquire sufficient nuclear and/or biological weapons to destroy Israel, and someone (Iran, HB, whoever replaces HB) will use them. They only have to get past the defences once.

Assuming Israel can't permanently take out Iran themselves, their strategic goal would seem to be to survive for the present, further brand Iran as the bad actor, and ecourage the the US to cause regime change in Iran by whatever means.

7/31/2006 09:33:00 AM  
Blogger rufus said...

Doug, did you click on the Up-date? The same Son of a Bitch was there in 96', doing the some thing.

Those dirty Son of a Bitches blew that apartment.

7/31/2006 09:36:00 AM  
Blogger Mr.Atos said...

Teresita, Indeed. I thought about the same thing after I posted the comment. Original torpedoes were little more than explosive traps waiting to be struck. In this case, Hez has set the torpedoes afloat, to be struck by Israel... MSM provides the destructive charge.

7/31/2006 09:49:00 AM  
Blogger java_thread said...

It may take a chemical or biological Hezbollah rocket to precipitate this...
But Israel should consider a radioactive, depopulated buffer zone. No need for a peace-keeping force.

7/31/2006 09:53:00 AM  
Blogger allen said...

rufus; 9:36 AM

Yes!!!

This is precisely why the Bush administration should have kept its mouth shut yesterday and vetoed the half-baked UN resolution. You stick with your friends and to hell with your enemies.

This is precisely why Dr. Rice should halt her precipitous rush to garner a totally impotent UN resolution this week. Any resolution coming now will do nothing but weaken Israel and by extension the US.

Stop the State Department madness, Mr. Bush.

7/31/2006 10:01:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

It's Over:
CNN discovers Feline WMD's
for all us that morn animal
suffering more than human.
(that ain't no small population)

7/31/2006 10:14:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

Allen suffers Reality Disconnect.
"You stick with your friends and to hell with your enemies."
---
Right:
Destroy his legacy, fat chance.

7/31/2006 10:16:00 AM  
Blogger rufus said...

Allen, your love of Israel has completely clouded your judgement.

Bush didn't compel Olmert to run out and "apologize" this time, any more than he did on the beach "bombing."

Bush, Condi, Bolton are fighting the "Diplomatic" war (and getting beat to a pulp) so Israel can "finish" the military one.

Dammit, Allen, Somebody has to say the "right" things, and stall the ball, or the whole "War" (not just your Lebanon battle) comes completely unwound.

7/31/2006 10:19:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

Hezbollywood?
Evidence mounts that Qana collapse and deaths were staged
ISRAELI INSIDER

7/31/2006 10:21:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

But Israelis steeled to scenes of carnage from Palestinian suicide bombings and Hezbollah rocket attack could not help but notice that these victims did not look like our victims. Their faces were ashen gray. Their limbs appeared to have stiffened, from rigor mortis. Neither were effects that would have resulted from an Israeli attack hours before. These were bodies that looked like they had been dead for days.
---
Even I noticed that:
Some definitely did not look like recently deceased.

7/31/2006 10:26:00 AM  
Blogger Buddy Larsen said...

Doug's links paint a pretty damn convincing picture--unless the articles have some factual foul-ups.

Especially the question which troubled me, that no matter how low, you wouldn't kill your own soldiers' families.

The "already dead" scenario solves that--along with "what the hell were they doing ASLEEP in that building with serial airstrikes in the area every few hours?"

Surely some of our western newsmen on the scene would tell us if there was anything screwy, right?

Anyhoo, if you haven't read Doug's links on this thread, please do so, and then spread the word--and the links.

7/31/2006 10:45:00 AM  
Blogger Aristides said...

The choice is clear. Israel and the US must destroy radical Islam in the Middle East, soon. Much like the defeat of Arab nationalism, a defeat of radical Islam on its terms (after a war it started) would stop that movement in its tracks.

It's going to be hard work to contain, but the fire must be started. Otherwise, even two oceans might not be enough to stop it from jumping to our shores.

Strong medicine is what we need, both here and abroad. Catharsis for the hawks, shock for the doves. Everybody else is either quiet or dead.

But that's not what's going to happen. The fire will be put out in a week or two. An international force will go in amidst a newly ascendant Hezbollah prestige (the Bush strategy was dependent on Hezbollah being defeated). The underbrush will continue to accumulate, and it will only be a matter of time.

If I'm wrong, that means Israel will play their Suez role (except to a much greater degree), with the US and Britain ready to jump in once things get crazy, so long as events at that stage are not already uncontrollable.

But maybe control is not what we're interested in. Maybe the entire region, the entire world, must destabilize and become fluid. Maybe then we'll be able to settle all family business.

7/31/2006 10:49:00 AM  
Blogger sirius_sir said...

This may or may not be pertinent, but does anyone have any idea why Israel might suddenly be in such a rush to procure bunker busters?

You all are aware of Lombardi's philosophy, right? Attack your enemy at his strongest point. What is Israel's enemy's strongest point? Is it really anything to do with Hezbollah proper, or is Hezbollah merely the point of the spear?

Why aim for the point of the spear when piercing the heart of the one wielding it will render the spear all but irrelevant?

7/31/2006 10:51:00 AM  
Blogger rufus said...

Again, Buddy, I think the "Update" link is possibly the most important.

I mean, it's the Same Damned Guy doing the same damned thing. What are the odds of that?

7/31/2006 10:51:00 AM  
Blogger Tarnsman said...

Time for Israel to " Cry "Havoc," and let slip the dogs of war!" The rocket attacks against its cities should be a profound wake-up to the citizen of Israel that they will never live in peace until they crush their enemies utterly and without mercy. The Hez rocket attacks are for all to see what the future has in store for Israel unless she destroys her tormentors, and this includes Syria. The world needs to step back and allow the parties to battle it out. No more ceasefires. Only a crushing Israeli victory will bring a peace treaty signed by all parties that will bring any sense of peace to the region. Damascus must fall to the Israelis to make the Arabs sue for peace.

7/31/2006 10:52:00 AM  
Blogger 2164th said...

I was just going to engage redaktør but I see Habu already performed a mild redaction of his own . I will add that I have learned from the majority of participants in BC, but I am having recollection problems with any of the analysis or commentary previously provided by redaktør.

7/31/2006 10:54:00 AM  
Blogger rufus said...

Can't do it, Ari. The game's in Iran. Everything else has to be looked at as peripheral.

Tarnsman, you can't "Conquer" a country whose territory you can't "Occupy." Six Million Jews can't "Occupy" Syria. As bad as the Baby Doc is, he's got a pass unless he screws up bigtime; and, he's, almost certainly, not going to do that.

7/31/2006 11:00:00 AM  
Blogger Buddy Larsen said...

rufus, be good to know who he is, but failing that he could just be the local EMS director--the incidents are a decade apart but same area. The circumstantial stuff is more difficult to explain. imho.

7/31/2006 11:03:00 AM  
Blogger rufus said...

Buddy, I doubt it. This guy just doesn't look like the local EMS Director for Qana, Lebanon.

I'll bet we'll find out soon enough.

7/31/2006 11:05:00 AM  
Blogger Buddy Larsen said...

The official investigation will be part of the Hez operation if the 'fake' premise is true. Stringers from AP and Reuters unlikely to ask any questions. Don't get your hopes up for an expose.

7/31/2006 11:13:00 AM  
Blogger Woman Catholic said...

java_thread

It may take a chemical or biological Hezbollah rocket to precipitate this...But Israel should consider a radioactive, depopulated buffer zone. No need for a peace-keeping force.

Alternatively, one "enhanced gamma ray" device, aka a neutron bomb, detonated at the approximate point where a rocket was fired at Israel. Get it across to the Jihadists that if they launch a missile at Israel they are automatically dead men and they can't run or drive fast enough to escape the retaliation. I don't know what the kill radius is on those things, but it should be sufficient. Not even Hezbollah will want to sacrifice, say, 300 men in return for getting off a single round that might not even hit something in Israel. But of course it will first require a quantum escalation in the conflict by the other side.

7/31/2006 11:13:00 AM  
Blogger 2164th said...

Aristides said...

"The choice is clear. Israel and the US must destroy radical Islam in the Middle East, soon..."

Israel cannot defeat radical Islam. The most Israel can do is protect her own borders. To do that she needs military and political victories. She has neither.

We have seen the pictures of young Lebanese children wrapped in polyethelene and duct tape, stacked side by side, mourned by their wailing mothers. We have the indignant outraged crouds with flags, banners and battering rams. On the other side there are no pictures of Israeli forces fighting Hezbollah, no imbeds, but lots of footage showing big guns and bomb bursts on what look to the outside world like low income housing. Who is the political public relations genius behind that?

Maybe Israel believes that world opinion is unimportant. Maybe she has been too long protected by an unquestioning United States. Paternalism will do that. The Katrina victims first response was to wait for the government to do something that many could and should have done for themselves. It is time for Israel to break way from this paternalism. US politicans are incapable of doing it, but for Israeli to have a normal future they must. They do not need US aid. That is a disgrace. They need to become part of what they really are and that is a European power and nation. If Turkey can aspire to EU membership and is a part of Nato, Israel can do it as well. It will not be easy, but neither was winning the Cold War.

The immediate needs must be attended to but the long term survival requires Israel to become a normal European power, participant and Nato member. Only then will the Islamic dream be shattered.

7/31/2006 11:16:00 AM  
Blogger Kingston53 said...

Calls for cease fire from Syria and Iran. Where is the bully talk now? Don’t despair that a negotiated cease fire will end things prematurely when we haven’t even started to discuss the size and shape of the table. This could go on for quite a while still.

7/31/2006 11:20:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

ASAP, After Rockets and Hizbullah are eliminated.
Netanyahu reports continued solidarity from Israel.

7/31/2006 11:26:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

"Don't get your hopes up for an expose. "
Blogosphere/AltMedia our only hope.

7/31/2006 11:29:00 AM  
Blogger geoffgo said...

2164th,

Patience brother. If we have to level Syria/Iran, Iraq is just the perfect "staging area" we had to have. Expensive; but worthwhile in light of the current circumstances.

Maybe GWB was planning for this, all along. Only a few of our tip-of-the-spear troops in Iraq are now engaged. Our air and sea components are at idle; kinda lurking about.

Looking back, it can't/won't be called dumb luck.

7/31/2006 11:33:00 AM  
Blogger allen said...

aristides; 10:49 AM

You are on the same page as Barzun, if it is understood that "revolution" is the "violent" overthrow of an existing system. Eventually, Israel’s relationships with its hostile neighbors will undergo revolutionary change or Israel will simply cease to exist.

This futile Kabuki theatre acted by the administration and some of our allies, including Israel, is fooling no one, but particularly not the bad guys. They are professional killers, who can smell fear from a mile. We have reached “High Noon”. Where is Gary Cooper?

At some point, battle must be joined. That being the case, like Patton I'll take an inelegant battle plan violently executed rather than this never ending and escalating parrying.

Good stuff.



Rufus,

Granted and fair enough, I may not be the most objective witness to unfolding events. Nevertheless, my loyalties are not conflicted, I hope.

While I appreciate the need for game playing as well as the next guy, it is, in my opinion, a terminal error to ever apologize to fascists and effeminate EU enablers on matters of fundamental policy. Furthermore, I see no need; what exactly did we gain from yesterday’s weakness? Not one soul at the UN, in the EU, or in the ME was convinced to “like” us more. Therefore, I believe the administration’s folding was panic driven and hurtful to the interests of the US and its very observant allies.

7/31/2006 11:51:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

"Other developments on Monday pointed to a lengthening of the 20-day-old conflict.

The United Nations Security Council postponed indefinitely a meeting on setting up a new peacekeeping force for the area."

- CNN

7/31/2006 11:55:00 AM  
Blogger RWE said...

In this venue we have long talked about the Pre-9/1101 and Oost 9/11/01 mindsets. Who could have guessed that Israel - the very embodiment of a Post-9/11/01 mindset for as long as we all can recall - would have ever embraced Pre-9/11/01 thinking except perhaps for the ravings of a lunatic fringe?

I disagree that Israel has a foreign policy culture of dependancy - they repeatedly have shown the willingness to go it alone - but even after the most recent attacks from terrorists in Lebanon you hear statements from them such as "Iran is a Superpower type of problem, not ours."

But I guess the Lost Decade - the 90's - had as much effect on Israel as it did anyone, if not more so. The defeat of Saddam, the fall of the Soviet Bloc, and Clinton's ApPeacement Process (note the new Belmont Term!) lulled them into complacency.

Still you would have thought that 9/11/01 would have snapped them out of it, even if did not many others.

7/31/2006 12:00:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Rush asks the question that's been going through my mind as I watch videos and pics on the internet and read Army plans to become more warm and fuzzy than ever:
"How do you win the hearts and minds of people when they don't have any to begin with?"
---
Seems rather out of place when dealing with people taught from birth to hate, and who eulogize and support cowardly, children killing Nazi monsters.

7/31/2006 12:07:00 PM  
Blogger Buddy Larsen said...

Moscow, which has given to the world many, many massacres, including in living memory the genocidal Katyn Massacre, has just called the Qana collateral deaths an "Israeli Massacre".

Moscow ought to know a real one when it sees one. So, today's announcement must be propaganda.

7/31/2006 12:23:00 PM  
Blogger Griswel said...

The fundamental problem with most criticism of Iraq and Lebanon is the implied assumption that terrorism there works according to scientific principals, such as Newton's laws of motion. We invade; people randomly blow up; we made a bad choice.

It is useful to ask ourselves this: what would happen if the terrorists stopped killing people? Would our prior, unwise, actions become wise? Would the same policies become better? What if there had never been any terror, would OIF have been a brilliant, three week war? How on earth does the legitimacy of our decisions depend on whether other people choose to kill innocents?

The same is true of Lebanon. Hez deliberately fires from civilian areas, not to tactically protect their fighters, but to strategically win the war by bringing return fire in on civilians.

Most criticisms of the war miss the fact that the other side chooses to do what they do. It's as though the war on terror were a giant pinball game: we're the only one making decisions, everyone else is part of the machine merely following a pre-programmed set of instructions whose results *we* are responsible for.

In reality, everyone involved is making conscious decisions, and because our enemies continue to choose to kill innocent people (directly or indirectly) our actions, in the minds of many, become less and less wise, more and more culpable. This logic is a major motivation for the continued terror in Iraq and Lebanon.

They choose to kill because doing so makes us wrong.

7/31/2006 12:30:00 PM  
Blogger Scott said...

Mr. Giestern

I hear you about "just give me the Marching Orders"

When I was single and only had my parent's hopes for my (our) future at stake, we could "join up" go over, & fight, etc.

Now that there are Kids and their spouses, it causes us to view things differently.

If you're young and can be a Ranger, or a Marine, you may want to sign up. There are really evil people on the tacticle level that need killing overseas.

If you are old, get in the best shape you can, get involved in local then regional then state politics,
Buy plenty of guns and ammo and train your kids to use them (they'll either own them or sell them when you're gone).

If Habu3 get's his "Deathwish" and Iran & Syria get bombed, then there will be plenty of "Sudden Jihad Syndrome" all over the place against Jews & "Crusaders" , maybe right in your hometown. Those guns will come in handy and you'll need to be prepared ahead of time.

Remember, Mr. Haq in Seattle had a .40 Cal semi auto and a .45 Cal semi auto with lot's of extra magazines on him. He was thinking about doing his dirty deed for a long time.

There's plenty of other cases of "Sudden Jihad Syndrome" and I think it will be on the increase.

Remember the Boy Scout motto -- "Be Prepared." And train up your own kids and family. Hunting Fishing and Marksmanship, pays off better as "training" than waterskiing, tho you don't have to neglect either, just be sure to include the Hunting Fishing and Marksmanship.

Praying never hurt. Pray for Wisdom to know how to live and when to act. Pray for courage to do the right thing when it's your time to choose.
Pray for forgiveness.

7/31/2006 12:35:00 PM  
Blogger Dan said...

Just kill them all. Bloodbath will come now or later. Come now. Do it now. These people are cartoon evil. Let the politicians talk, and set free the generals. Period. There should not even be talking. Negotiation with Hezbollah is not an option. Lebanon's government has been collapsed, now or imminently, by the terror axis. Kill them, do not talk. Kill Sadr, Kill Nasrallah, Kill Assad, Kill Ahmedinejad, Kill Khamenei.

Thomas Friedman remarked on Meet the Press the other day that "Yknow [the strategy of going in and bashing things] - it's just not working."

And who, Tom, needs to learn that lesson, you fucking moron? WHO!?

Here's how you teach the lesson, little grasshopper: YOU KILL THEM.

7/31/2006 12:59:00 PM  
Blogger Scott said...

Geistern

My appology for mispelling your name above.

I recall the events of July 28 1914, which saw a land & power grubbing Austrian Monarchy trying to dominate Serbia, ... Serbia, ? and by the end of 5 days all the major world European powers had declared war on each other, and were at war. It lasted 4 1/2 years.

It could happen again.

(Austria gives Serbia "the July Ultimatum" assured Germany will back them up. Jul 28, Austria declares war on Serbia, Jluy 29 Serbia's ally Russia declares war on Austria-Hungary, July 30 Germany Declares war on Russia, August 1 France, Russia's ally declares War on Germany, August 3 Germany invades Belgium to do a Hail Mary on France,
Aug 3, Belgium's ally England declares War on Germany.)

4 1/2 years later, 20 million dead, the participant nations exhausted, devastated, things end pretty much where they started.

This, from a Canadian Physician who fought on the Western Front in 1914, later was transfered to Medical Corps and died of Pneumonia in 1918 while attending the sick.

In Flanders Fields
In Flanders fields the poppies blow
Between the crosses, row on row
That mark our place; and in the sky
The larks, still bravely singing, fly
Scarce heard amid the guns below.

We are the Dead. Short days ago
We lived, felt dawn, saw sunset glow,
Loved and were loved, and now we lie
In Flanders fields.

Take up our quarrel with the foe:
To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
If ye break faith with us who die
We shall not sleep, though poppies grow
In Flanders fields.

20 million died in that one over 4 years, and 25-50 million from the influenza the year after the Armistice 1918.

That many could be killed in a week now over Lebanon, ... Lebanon ?

Be prepared.

7/31/2006 01:06:00 PM  
Blogger greer rants said...

U.S. using reverse psych?

Condi says we'll have something from the UN in a week.

This throws the S.C. into tissy. What is the bitch's real agenda here? They want it to stop in a week.
We can't allow that.

Therefore Intl force decision put off.

UN wants EVERYONE AT THE TABLE
UN will wait until the 12th IMAM comes out of his well on Agust 22nd and has therefore put deadline for Iran to August 30th so that all may participate in Iran's response.

7/31/2006 01:13:00 PM  
Blogger rufus said...

Tigerhawk, as usual, cuts through to the horns of the dilemma.

7/31/2006 01:21:00 PM  
Blogger Habu_3 said...

Scott (12:35)

Great advice. Be prepared. Remington 870 shotguns are good for those retically challenged.
Always have a good camp knife, blade at least 10 inches. Length of rope, min. 10 feet. Sidearm w/ lots of ammo. If you can afford a good 7.62 cal. semi auto 'tis good.
Know how to make napalm. Many other things. Just remember your hierarchy of needs..more ammo,water..*
Yeah, it's com'in so stock up on mre's and have a water purifier.
Shoot to kill. Do not take prisoners. Good luck, and have a nice day.
*taking the time to get good at survival techniques is never wasted time.

7/31/2006 01:23:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Israeli Death Worshippers for Peace
An Israeli protests the military action in Lebanon.

7/31/2006 01:33:00 PM  
Blogger Scott said...

Habu_3

While your "enthusiasm" is admirable, you're nuts.

Nukes, breakdown of law, Cannibalisam, Zombies in the streets ... survivalism , Isn't going to happen in the United States

Not for a few decades at least.

But marksmanship, hunting and fishing, "fieldcraft" is good instructional recreation for kids.

You don't want to be typing about making napalm online unless you want to get real friendly on a "first name basis with ATF" or does FBI take jurisdiction over incendiary and explosives ?

Unless you have better interpersonal skills than you have posting skill, you won't be able to be accepted by the 400 or so people needed to sustain themselves in a "Survivalist " enclave. (though 200 highly skilled, Highly organized, highly committed people could do it ... like the Amish)

Maybe you'd better read up on "How to be a hermit in Alaskan Wilderness".

7/31/2006 01:44:00 PM  
Blogger desert rat said...

scott,
Napalm is easy, Ivory Snow in powder or flakes and gasoline. Mix 'til gelled.
35 gal barrels are not as cumbersome as 55's, when full.
Sometimes a little diesel in the mix keeps it burning longer.

Easier than ammonium nitrate and diesel fuel, 'cause it's not as hard to ignite.

Field expedient explosives are not all that difficult to manufacture, look at all the "homemade" bombs in Iraq.

It's not in the knowin', but the doin'that gets folk in trouble.
If the FBI comes a callin', I'll say hi!

7/31/2006 01:58:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Meanwhile, Back at the Ranch:
---
U.S. military officials are reluctant to give specific operational plans in advance, but it is becoming clear that there will be at least three main tasks for the incoming troops.

First, some of the Americans will "embed" with Iraqi units -- not submitting to Iraqi command but accompanying the units on patrols to make sure they do not unfairly victimize any religious sect. At the moment, some Sunni neighborhoods actively block police units from entering because they fear they could be death squads masquerading in official uniforms.

Second, the United States is transferring the 172nd Stryker brigade from the northern city of Mosul to Baghdad. Strykers are armored vehicles with eight wheels that are larger than Humvees but faster and more maneuverable than tanks or other tracked vehicles. They can be used on regular -- and very visible -- patrols and also as part of a rapidly deployable strike team that can be rushed to a neighborhood to stop or defuse sectarian confrontations before they get out of hand.

Third, there will be an intensification of intelligence operations to target the individuals who are the leaders of insurgent groups and death squads for arrest.

It took the commander in chief to finally admit what was becoming increasingly clear on the ground:
The strategy of Iraqification has backfired in Baghdad because the largely Shiite security forces are widely seen to have been infiltrated by death squads and militia members who have been targeting Sunnis, making the sectarian conflict worse, not better.

7/31/2006 02:01:00 PM  
Blogger Tarnsman said...

rufus, the objective is not to occupy Syria. The objective is to take Damascus. The fall of Damascus to Israeli forces would have a profound effect on the Arabs. The city is of great historical, spiritual and emotional significance to them. Having one of the great Arab cities fall to the Jews would, I think (really more of a hope), call into question the whole notion of Israel somehow disappearing in the Arab mind. It would be an utter defeat. Once taken, Israel could return it via a regional peace treaty that includes ALL Arab nations. Remember, technically Syria and Israel are still at war. The Agreement of Disengagement between the two countries in 1973 specially states that it is not a peace treaty. Time for Israel to end the Yon Kippur War.

7/31/2006 02:10:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Who needs Napalm?
Just do like the guy in LA that CNN has video of on the front page.
Couldn't keep from LOL.
Guy gets done filling up, gets in, someone else screams in and hits pump/car, immediate fire.
Cartoon character runs away from car and then runs back to get briefcase.
Cartoon Stunt Driver, gets out, pulls wife out of car.
All action somehow at perfect pace for max comedic effect.

7/31/2006 02:12:00 PM  
Blogger desert rat said...

At RCP there is this question asked
Iranian ForMin In Beirut: Who Knew? - Peter Brookes

7/31/2006 02:13:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Tarnsman,
I'd settle for breaking Baby Docs toys in partial settlement for him killing Our Troops, Iraqis, and Israelis.
...and of course Lebanese.

7/31/2006 02:15:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

When you're a weak and beaten power, 'Rat, ya gotta let superpowers like Iran call the shots.
Reality Sucks.

7/31/2006 02:17:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

(when you're a globalist wimp)

7/31/2006 02:18:00 PM  
Blogger desert rat said...

tarnsman of Gor, that strategy was discussed three weeks ago. Instead the IDF has stalled along the Blue Line. An incursion here, another there.
Perhaps, as many beleive, this is but battlefield shaping. I tend to doubt it, but maybe M. Simon is right.

The most telling live report I've seen was FOX from that Lebanonese hilltop village, Bent Jbail.
After the IDF pulled out, old men, women and children were climbing out of the rubble. Survivors of the place being leveled.

So, rufus, in regards your question of yesterday, I think the IDF estimate of 200 HB combatants KIA seems about right. Add 50% or even double it. Still not enough to make a difference.

7/31/2006 02:20:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Maybe Damascus is a big campaign donor?

7/31/2006 02:21:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Joos Bomb Cats

7/31/2006 02:25:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Benjamin Netanyahu Transcript and Audio

7/31/2006 02:31:00 PM  
Blogger rufus said...

Tarnsman, you might be right, but, I just can't see it happening. Then again, it Is the ME.

And, Rat; You might be right, too. Anyway, It's probably not so important how many there are, as it is "where they are at."

there, take that. :)

7/31/2006 03:06:00 PM  
Blogger Scott said...

Rat --

In the Battle for Fallujah the American troops said liquid soap plus some plain 50 wt. motor oil worked better than Ivory Snow.

If I ever need the stuff, I'll call a professional. I saw the mom yesterday at Church of a very young man who is in Fallujah right now, Second tour, out of Camp Pendleton.

I saw the Mom of a young Ranger who's done two tours of Afgahnistan and is headed to Iraq with his company, and another mom who's son is on the USS Cole, right now, you can look up where they're patrolling today if you like, he's first man aboard in boarding party duty with an M14.

If I ever need the stuff, and I doubt I ever will, I'll call them.

7/31/2006 03:24:00 PM  
Blogger desert rat said...

Time marches on, scott.

Either technique will work.
There's just something about Marilyn Chambers that makes me partial to Ivory Snow.

7/31/2006 03:56:00 PM  
Blogger Will Rayford said...

Time to drop the pretense of “US as peace broker” and stop the squishy State Department lingo, (Bush himself included). It hurts my head to hear Condi blather on about "lasting peace." It's a code word for giving Israel the yellow light. Not firm enough and in the face of things, kind of gutless. The rhetoric we need to be using should be a hard counterbalance to Kofi Annan’s obvious anti-Israeli propaganda. Now more than ever saying it straight is to our advantage. Place the blame for everything that happens in this war at the doorstep of the guilty party – Hezbollah, Syria, Iran, and Hugo Chavez. The propaganda war is of vital importance. The war itself could be won or lost based on the message that gets out there and sticks in peoples minds. Bush has the bully pulpit and he needs to start using it much better than he has. Are we afraid to tell it like it is?

7/31/2006 07:02:00 PM  
Blogger Triton'sPolarTiger said...

will,

When I get tired of following this Hizbo mess, I amuse myself pondering the future of Hugo Chavez... he's another one I'm up to "here" with.

7/31/2006 09:42:00 PM  
Blogger M. Simon said...

Syria/Iran has lost the war.

It is all over except the shooting.

Tactics, Strategy, Grand Strategy

7/31/2006 09:50:00 PM  
Blogger M. Simon said...

desert rat,

The stall is an enticement. It is meant to get the Arab street hot and bothered with the scent of victory in order to get Syria to attack.

And I thought you knew military.

The incompetence of the Israeli Government/Army is deception.

You are familiar with deception in warfare, no?

I'm reminded of one of Cromwell's Scottish enemies who said:

"We must either starve, disband, or go with a handful of men into England. This last seems the least ill, yet it seems very desperate".

7/31/2006 09:57:00 PM  
Blogger Cedarford said...

Habu3 - I believe you are taking W's secrecy for imperiousness.

He well knows the situation. He has however managed to keep a White House that manages secrecy better than any of the past presidents of recent memory.
This riles the press and certain segments of the population.......


No, I think a majority of the population has concluded Bush is stupid, lazy, the neocon's catspaw and has no clue on foreign affairs - that what he cares about is schmoozing, bike rides, and further rewarding America's rich.

His secrecy appears more to be an unwillingness to inform the public, motivate them, bring them together. It extends to a refusal to consult with members of even his own Party on matters foreign or domestic, and an unwillingness to confront them as they feed like greedy pigs on the money China, KSA and Japan fill the trough with.

2164th posts what appears to be the emerging public consensus on Bush in his 6:51 AM post
==========================
Teresita - A neutron bomb is basically a low-yield H-bomb which does not use a lot of fusable material or use up the fast neutrons in 3rd stage fissioning, so it's fast neutron sphere of lethal effect greatly exceeds the blast and thermal effects...especially on armor.

7/31/2006 10:05:00 PM  
Blogger M. Simon said...

allen 1151 AM,

Evidently the Israeli/American "Incompetence" has fooled you.

It is a show to entice Syria to attack.

7/31/2006 10:08:00 PM  

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