Postscript to Pulp Fiction
I've decided to write a postscript to the speculative Pulp Fiction focusing on two points. The first is that things don't unroll according to some vast plan preordained before hostilities except in the broadest sense -- the constraints imposed by geography, resources and time. The second is that even when a set of politicians are muddled and indecisive, as the Israeli cabinet often is, they often find themselves behaving according to some logic in spite of themselves.
Two months ago no one would have guessed that Ehud Olmert would be leading Israel into its first major war of the 21st century. Israeli Defense Minister Amir Peretz wryly considered the joke that history had played on him. The Jerusalem Post wrote:
When Ariel Sharon was defense minister, Amir Peretz was a leading activist organizing Peace Now demonstrations in which Sharon was called a "murderer" for allowing Lebanese civilians to get killed in the Lebanon War.
On Saturday night, Peretz came full circle when a small group of extreme left-wingers called him a "murderer" at a demonstration in Tel Aviv.
If it's any consolation, the joke isn't confined to him. Nasrallah wanted one thing and got another. Olmert wanted out of Gaza and finds himself back in it. The men fighting on both sides in the Lebanese hills had no idea six weeks ago that they would be at each other's throats. If I had to choose a single image to symbolize the war in Lebanon it wouldn't be the smashed buildings in south Beirut. It would be the empty pools in hotels that had been fully booked for the summer season. How things turn out in the end will be the outcome of men's struggles to control their fate against the tides of the world. Albert Camus, who always had a fine sense for the absurd had the most elegant answer to the question of our place in events: "In the end, man is not entirely guilty — he did not start history. Nor is he wholly innocent — he continues it."
posted by wretchardthecat at 7/27/2006 04:36:00 PM
219 Comments:
Albert Camus, who always had a fine sense for the absurd had the most elegant answer to the question of our place in events: "In the end, man is not entirely guilty — he did not start history. Nor is he wholly innocent — he continues it.
And all this time I thought it was Billy Joel.
The battle in Bint Jbail
Contrary to previous reports, Friedler said, the Hizbullah fighters were not lying in ambush. "Both sides were unaware of each other and it was actually one of our soldiers who saw them first and opened fire."
- J Post -Yoni
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THE CLUELESS UNIFIL
Oren was just interviewed by Shep Smith on Fox. Shep asked if the goals for the Israeli military were contracting due to the unexpected fighting prowess of the Hezbollah. Oren said, on the contrary, that it appears that objectives were, if anything, expanding.
Take that as you will. He also said that Israel will not accept anything other than a demilitarization of Hezbollah, and is not interested in the demilitarization of territory.
Mistakes are, of course, being made by both sides -- this is war, after all. But I think the original mistake of this war, Hezbollah deciding to attack, will be the one that is determinative.
"Nor is he wholly innocent — he continues it."
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One more for the Road.
Joel
Doug, I'm pretty sure it was Haaratz that first reported the word "ambush", also reporting that the IDF didn't have enough troops and was ill-prepared.
If it's true that is not the case, that plus Israeli censorship creates a strong argument that the original report was psyops.
Of course, maybe the correction is psyops, to help restore morale. Wish we knew.
aristides; 4:48 PM
Without a militant Hezbollah, ipso facto, the territory is demilitarized.
With no intention of being rude, however, it must be pointed out that “[i]magination is cheap if we don’t have to bother with the details.” (Dennett)
What would constitute a demilitarized Hezbollah?
Who will demilitarize Hezbollah?
Syria? EU? NATO? UN? The possibilities are limited and voluntarism in short supply.
At his confirmation hearing today, Bolton laid out our strategic objectives in this conflict:
Seize the opportunity to once and forever dismantle Hezbollah, restore democratic control by Lebanon over all of its territory, and lay the foundations which would allow Israel to live in peace with its neighbors.
He also stated that Iran's quest for nukes poses a "grave and direct" threat, and that it is a critical issue.
Anybody want to place a bet on whether Bush is serious?
Allen, re: the demilitarization of territory vs. Hezbollah, that's what I was saying, whether it came through or not. I was hoping to contrast the latter with the call for a buffer zone. And yes, the devil is in the details.
Speaking of continuing history, the Senator from Vietnam also said something to Bolton to the effect: The six party talks with North Korea are dragging on for five years. When are we going to go to bilateral talks and get the job done, like the Clinton Administration did.
THANK GOD Bush won a second term. Get the job done like the Clinton Administration did - holy cow! They appeased the North Koreans who continued building nukes, and he refused to act decisively against Al Qaeda, even in the face of multiple declarations and acts of war against us.
What could Kerry possibly mean by get the job done? This is truly Orwellian.
Wretchard - Pulp Fiction is excellent, this is the best blog on the planet.
Speaking of Clinton:
Peace Morons
Israel's Unnecessary War
For 45 years, 1948-93, Israel's strategic vision, tactical brilliance, technological innovation, and logistical cleverness won it a deterrence capability. A deep understanding of the country's predicament, complemented by money, will power, and dedication, enabled the Israeli state systematically to burnish its reputation for toughness
Decades of hard work before 1993 won Israel the wary respect of its enemies. In contrast, episodic displays of muscle have no utility. Should Israel resume the business-as-usual of appeasement and retreat, the present fighting will turn out to be a summer squall, a futile lashing-out. By now, Israel's enemies know they need only hunker down for some days or weeks and things will go back to normal, with the Israeli left in obstructionist mode, the government soon proffering gifts, trucking with terrorists, and yet again in territorial retreat.
Deterrence cannot be reinstated in a week, through a raid, a blockade, or a round of war. It demands unwavering resolve, expressed over decades. For the current operations to achieve anything for Israel beyond emotional palliation, they must presage a profound change in orientation. They must prompt a major rethinking of Israeli foreign policy, a junking of the Oslo and disengagement paradigms in favor of a policy of deterrence leading to victory.
- Pipes
I saw on tv the Sandinista Senator ask those questions of Bolton. He was snarling the questions, with a huge sneer on his face and his voice dripping with sarcasm and condescension.
What a black hole that guy is.
Israel built themsleves a very large problem in the 70's by reacting to terrorist attacks by bombing refugee camps. "You hit me I will hit you" may have made some kind of sense - in Chicago in 1933 - but in the end they finally had to admit they were only making things worse. So said an IAF Colonel in an article I read in a USAF professional development course/sleep inducer circa 1980. They learned, but that legacy lives on.
Targeted attacks against specific terrorist leaders worked much better, providing not only "Tit for Tat" satisfaction but effectively reducing enemy capabilities as well. Technology made that kind of approach possible - Precision Guided Munitions combined with better survelliance techniques.
Clearly, the current leadership in Israel gew up under the old Tit for Tat strategy and are as much a prisoner of it as Hamas and Hezbolah depend on it for recruits.
Just as Israel was caught flat footed in the Yom Kipper War by a belief in continued Arab incompetance, the country was now caught flat footed by a belief in its own continued culpability.
At least they have shown an ability to learn - which is more than many in the U.S. can say.
Wretchard, you're getting great praise over at Roger's place.
Much deserved.
One would think the next 24 to 48 hours will tell the tale of Israeli intentions.
Is the HB flowing south out of the Bekaa to meet the IDF, or are they standing pat in their positions? I doubt to there being many HB deserters, regardless.
Questions as to the size of HB remain. Reports of it being from as few as 1,000 fighters to as many as 12,000 total men under arms. With as poor intelligence as is reported, as to HB infrastructure, why would any of the estimates be valid?
It seems obvious that the lower estimates were much to low, what if the higher estimates are to low, as well.
Still no manpads, are they waiting for an airlifted blocking force, or are they missing those missiles from HB inventories?
The replacements from both Iraq and Iran should be in Damascus by now. Most likely being outfitted for their trip to Lebanon.
They, perhaps, will play the role of General Giap's Army. Lambs to the slaughter or not, depending on which of General Giap's Indochinese realities play out.
In the end they beat the West, they had greater resolve than either the French or the United States.
Mr Dean called Mr Maliki and anti-Semite, he's right. At least about that. Especially if we are using the Pat Buchannon litmus test, as the Standard.
Mr al-Sadr's Mahdi Army is dispatching an Expeditionary Force of it's own to the Levant. Good thing, it may help stabilize Baghdad.
Half-stepped to Victory, here's to hope!
When Hope is all there is:
---
Will we ever learn? - Ledeen on Syria.
OT - McCain Judicial Sabotage
Big John, Crown Prince of the Pacific.
A truely dangerous man
But Howards Dean can never be excused--he does all he possibly can to improve conditions for the terrorists, then decides he's the Protector of Israel?
wretchard wrote:
On Saturday night, Peretz came full circle when a small group of extreme left-wingers called him a "murderer" at a demonstration in Tel Aviv.
O RLY! It looks like Peretz is getting the "Daily Koz" treatment like what's happening to Lieberman and Hillary and any other "Scoop Jackson" type Democrat who has their head screwed on straight over foreign policy this year.
If it's any consolation, the joke isn't confined to him. Nasrallah wanted one thing and got another. Olmert wanted out of Gaza and finds himself back in it. The men fighting on both sides in the Lebanese hills had no idea six weeks ago that they would be at each other's throats.
More consolations: It was mentioned elsewhere that Nasrallah overplayed his hand when he did his kidnappings right after the Gaza kidnapping, putting Israel in a fell mood months or years before Iran was ready with their Bomb and throwing off the 12th Iman's whole timetable. Olmert wanted out of the West Bank and the throws that whole concept into the category of dubious. Assad can hang up his dreams of getting back the Golan Heights, any rockets launched from there could probably even hit Jerusalem.
If I had to choose a single image to symbolize the war in Lebanon it wouldn't be the smashed buildings in south Beirut. It would be the empty pools in hotels that had been fully booked for the summer season.
And that image might be what saves us from plunging into a war with China someday. Abstract ideology about getting back Taiwan as a breakaway province won't be worth a damn if the "market of last resort" (i.e. America) is closed to all their slave-manufactured crap due to wartime sanctions and the Chinese government is holding all these Treasury IOUs that suddenly aren't worth the paper they're written on.
James Bamford gives Ledeen the C-4 treatment.
---
Roger Simon
James Bamford:
Wretchard in extremis:
Prays for Voo Doo!
This is OT but something in the comments stirred this memory. I don't recall Dylan or the The White Stripes doing this tune. Rather I recall some group doing this number in a bar called Augies on 106th St & Broadway back in about 1979-80.
One More Cup Of Coffee
The White Stripes
Bob Dylan
Your breath is sweet
Your eyes are like two jewels in the sky.
Your back is straight, your hair is smooth
On the pillow where you lie.
But I don't sense affection
No gratitude or love
Your loyalty is not to me
But to the stars above.
One more cup of coffee for the road
One more cup of coffee 'fore I go
To the valley below.
Your daddy he's an outlaw
And a wanderer by trade
He'll teach you how to pick and choose
And how to throw the blade
He oversees his kingdom
So no stranger does intrude
His voice it trembles as he calls out
For another plate of food
One more cup of coffee for the road,
One more cup of coffee 'fore I go
To the valley below
Your sister sees the future
Like your mama and yourself
You've never learned to read or write
There's no books upon your shelf.
And your pleasure knows no limits
Your voice is like a meadowlark
But your heart is like an ocean
Mysterious and dark
One more cup of coffee for the road,
One more cup of coffee 'fore I go
To the valley below
But a mile wide free fire zone, dear humble host, is to little, to late. If that is to be the ALL of it.
That is not an "amputation, radiotherapy, or chemotherapy "
it does, though constitute voo-doo.
If Mr Olmert is as skillful as Mr Reagan, voo-doo can work, ask the senior Mr Bush, he learned quite a bit about voo-doo, from Mr Reagan's economics lesson.
As stated on D Day, if the HB is not destroyed, HB WINS!
If the Bekaa is not cleared, HB WINS!
If the Status Que is not seriously altered, HB WINS!
That would be worse than bad.
Hope for the voo-doo, or a change in the Announced Course.
On to Damascus!
Or call it off and go home
Bush hasn't exactly been a warmonger when it comes to Iran's ally, Syria, either. Even as Syrian dictator Bashar Assad was turning his country into a staging ground for the Iraqi insurgency, the Bush administration repeatedly sent envoys to Damascus in an attempt to negotiate. Far from being interested in a deal, Assad was only emboldened into thinking that he would suffer no consequences for his hostile acts.
I will now let Boot Kick my Syrian Hobbyhorse
If all three of the IDF's "best" Brigades are removed from Lebanon, it'd take about half the call up to "cover" for 'em.
Who else would lead an assualt on the Syrians, or threaten one, to create "Terms" that Israel would find acceptable?
This song reminds me of the Gypsie Kings. The music calls out to some deep well of Atlantic loneliness, longing, self pity and schizophrenia where the scales of James Joyce serpent breaks the water and slide back under.
This calls for scripture.
1 Corinthians 13 KJV
1 Though I speak with the tongues of men and of angels, and have not charity, I am become as sounding brass, or a tinkling cymbal.
2 And though I have the gift of prophecy, and understand all mysteries, and all knowledge; and though I have all faith, so that I could remove mountains, and have not charity, I am nothing.
3 And though I bestow all my goods to feed the poor, and though I give my body to be burned, and have not charity, it profiteth me nothing.
4 Charity suffereth long, and is kind; charity envieth not; charity vaunteth not itself, is not puffed up,
5 Doth not behave itself unseemly, seeketh not her own, is not easily provoked, thinketh no evil;
6 Rejoiceth not in iniquity, but rejoiceth in the truth;
7 Beareth all things, believeth all things, hopeth all things, endureth all things.
8 Charity never faileth: but whether there be prophecies, they shall fail; whether there be tongues, they shall cease; whether there be knowledge, it shall vanish away.
9 For we know in part, and we prophesy in part.
10 But when that which is perfect is come, then that which is in part shall be done away.
11 When I was a child, I spake as a child, I understood as a child, I thought as a child: but when I became a man, I put away childish things.
12 For now we see through a glass, darkly; but then face to face: now I know in part; but then shall I know even as also I am known.
13 And now abideth faith, hope, charity, these three; but the greatest of these is charity.
///////////////
(note: charity is often translated as love.)
You'll love this, C-4:
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Nasrallah on Al-Manar TV Last Night: 'What is Important is in the Ground War is the Number of Losses We Inflict Upon the Israeli Enemy'
If Israel is serious they will mass their newly called up divisions along the border near Qiryat Shemons and drive toward Sayda, thereby cutting off the Hezbollah fighters in their forward bunkers from resupply and escape. Then they can reduce the Hez fortifications and destroy the forward rocket firing bases. With their left flank secure they could begin the push up the Bekka Valley and the heart of Hezbollah territory. It is the only way that Israel can win this thing decisively. Allowing Hezbollah to escape to fight another day will be percieved as a defeat for Israel, IMHO.
He certainly makes his own case, doug.
Does not sound as if Mr Assad chastised or dressed him down. Nes does not sound to reconciliatory nor whipped on.
In Damascus.
If those other reports are correct, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard is getting a taste of blood, itself. Not a "good thing", in the scheme of things. To provide 'em with OJT, unless of course, they die.
C-4 strips the varnish off the Bush style of leadership. If you can call it that.
Yah, no need for any varnish. Just strip him down to nothing, piss on him. We don't need to be lining up with no commander-in-chief, not in these free n easy times.
Fuses lit and burning everywhere, and DC is gearing up for a big senate fight over--Bolton.
Good Gawd A-Mighty.
Maybe we oughta be sizing for turbans, if we got no more sense than that. For once, we need the UN to do right, and we're fixing to Bork our UN ambassador.
And for show, since he'll win after the posturing. Chris Dodd, John Kerry, Howard Dean, what is the Major Malfunction, don't they read the papers?
Krauthammer on Fox makes a very good point, but obvious point that several Belmonteers have made Maybe he reads BC. If Israel is successful against Hezbollah, they become a strategic asset to the US, if they do not they are a liability. Hezbollah surviving with any territory is a win for Hezbollah.The pulse of Belmont Club go from the cheer leaders through the hopefuls and on to the agnostics and the sceptics.
As of this post I read things as to the slightly right of center with the hopefuls.
10:06 PM,
Don't forget us Schizoids.
I'd say most everyone is a 'hopeful'--haven't seen any outright defeatists. Hopeful/sceptic, hopeful/cheerleader, and so on. Taxonomy can be such a bitch--
9:59 PM
"Maybe we oughta be sizing for turbans"
Strategy:
Starched Towel Heads.
---
---
Lipponen: Surface Sizing with Starch Solutions at High Solids ...
A novel interpretation is presented of the role of surface sizing starch with respect to the elastic modulus and bending stiffness properties of the sheet...
Thank you for that rufus--I'll sleep better now. Hate to see a decent guy doing his dead-level best with a tough job on his shoulders get so freely shat upon. It's either the Jews or the Bush, somebody always has to get shat upon.
Hey, i been needing some starch tips! i can't git my sheet to perk up to a point over my no-forehead, on Satiddy nites!
After the US assault on Iraq and the early captitulation the Arabs were dismayed and shamed. The insurgency has strengthened their resolve and tactics. The combination has spread to Afghanistan and the struggle is pivotal in Iraq. Hezbollah, knowingly or not, planned or not is vying with AQ for the lead in jihad. Israel can stop the momentum and has commited itself to a must win. They really are in a loss is no option position mode . Israel has exposed the extent and sophistication of how advanced the jihad has advanced. Saudi Arabia and Egypt have noticed.
Precisely why the free world needs to unite.
2164th: Definitely KNOWINGLY.
Bobal: Trade Secret!
Pander and Run
After years of struggling to define their own approach to post-Sept. 11 foreign policy, Democrats seem finally to have hit on one. It's called pandering. In those rare cases when George W. Bush shows genuine sensitivity to America's allies and propounds a broader, more enlightened view of the national interest, Democrats will make him pay.
It's jingoism with a liberal face.
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
But at least we'll go down
Kinder and Gentler.
Glub glub with a twist.
Howard Dean calling Maliki an "anti-semite" kills me. Here Dean has for years been ready to dump the mideast and forget about Israel, until today, when he gets in front of a Jewish audience and goes off about the head of our hard-won, embattled, allied arab government being an anti-semite.
Left up to Howard Dean, the whole term would be moot soon enough.
Smacko made mention of the "last time" and the casualties incurred, then as opposed to now.
The particulars of this are unknown to me, but what day of the Campaign was that particular town overrun by the IDF?
The speed of the advance, the lack of decisive action early, have all given the HB the "edge" in their homefront propaganda, across Arabia.
A terrible blunder to have muddled into or perhaps a well laid trap. Or some combination there of.
But if in a week or two the Bekaa is unvisited by IDF boots, enmass, the Israelis will have suffered a greater "setback" than Lebanonese.
And the IAF's mission was setting them back "twenty years".
Howie's got NOTHING on JOHN Dean!
---
He's calling for an end to divisiveness.
With a book that calls right wingers howling, dangerous, madmen!
---
Gordon Libby will be more livid than normal.
BSD:
Gordon LIDDY!
bds I'm quittin while I'm behind:
A real horses arse I am.
Why couldn't I be the Golden Behind?
We just ain't gonna know until the dust settles. One thing, when you have a million folks living in bomb shelters, a real victory beats a moral victory. And IDF knows the ground, in all permutations of the word.
While Sir Francis Circumnavigated,
All I got was
Circumspect about Sizing.
The Golden Hind was the first ship to circumcise the globe.
Regardless of Mr Dean's past history, buddy, he is right about Mr Maliki.
The man that exemplifies US efforts to bring democracy to the Middle East, backs Iran's "Peaceful" nuclear program and calls on Israel to stop the killing, without mention of HB's presence.
Not a proportional reaponse at all.
That's a fact that does not bode well, at all.
Hate to say "I told ya so", but...
Yoni says the people he knows and is related to have NEVER been so united before.
He's his own man, 'Rat.
Holy Shiite.
Wretchard, your posting is rich with ideas.
To Albert Camus I would add Mick Jagger: "You can't always get what you want"
The same concept can be applied to American attitudes. Quietly, there is a hardening of positions going on: Americans are getting fed up with the Middle Eastern, Iranian and other muslim totalitarians.
For instance, lo and behold, today Bin Laden's right-hand cockroach Zawahiri has scurried out of his dark corner with another video threat. But he may not get what he wants ...
If America gets hit again, the reaction will be terrifying and deadly for all that is Middle Eastern, Iranian and islamic fascist.
Rat, what Mick Jagger says--at least Maliki is making thank-you speeches to congress, and has to stand for election, and has an allied army in his yard.
One huge thing is, you don't hear much Islamic yowling that he is an American running dog--a critique that would be deadly, and would be certain and loud and delegitimizing, if Maliki didn't have some bright lines separating him from the American beau ideal.
To paraphrase Jagger, that's something ya got, that you didn't know ya wanted.
Friendly Flag?
This picture is featured on page 155 of Jed Babbin's 2004 book, Inside the Asylum .
Taken around January, 2004, at a facility on the Lebanese-Israeli border, not too far from near a town called Metullah.
The United Nations flag is flying a couple of feet away from the Hezbollah flag.
- Radioblogger.com
yup--defining deviancy down, that's the unsustainable world we have, twiching and lurching underneath our feet.
well-nite-all--
Cedarford,
There's a lot of truth in your observations. But just to stir the pot, here are some back.
If Bint Jbeil is like Fallujah the one lesson insurgents learned from it was that it was better to go back to IEDs. There were some who argued Falluja would puncture the aura of invincibility of the Marines. What it really did was convince the enemy that it didn't pay to fight conventionally again. I expect Hezbollah is going to learn the same.
Victory may not be everything, but its the main thing. Once Nasser was the idol of the Arab world. Till he got beat all hollow. Sadat was a living legend. But time passed and the Muslim Brotherhood or some such shot him in the grandstand. Saddam Hussein, believe it or not, was once the New Saladin. If only I could find the clippings from Desert Storm. Osama Bin Laden was once a popular man whose ratings have fallen of late. Time called Zarqawi the rising star of the Jihad about 4 months before his death. Anyone know where he's buried? Yasser Arafat was the symbol of the Palestinian nation. Once upon a time.
Nasrallah receives adulation becomes he represents hope. Hope the Jew will finally be defeated. Successful where no one else has been. If he succeeds he will be immortalized. If he fails he'll join the long list of has-beens.
But there will be another, and another, each nastier than the last because unless certain cultures learn to live with the West and the Jews there will always be another. I know it's fashionable to knock bringing democracy to the Muslim world, but despite it all it remains, I think our last best hope. The alternative is to destroy them. To turn the Koran and the tradition that flows from it into a memory. Part of the problem, I think is that we've forgotten that democracy doesn't come on the wings of an election. It comes on the tide of history and of deep social change. I look at Iraq and don't recognize anything that looks like a democracy, but maybe it's became I couldn't recognize it in the form that must it must take in the Arab world.
I'm not sure that I'm disagreeing with you because I don't know the answers. And I'm beginning to guess that no one does. For the present, its enough to know that Hezbollah defeated will be forgotten. Hezbollah triumphant will shine like a beacon of blood.
wretchard wrote:
For the present, its enough to know that Hezbollah defeated will be forgotten. Hezbollah triumphant will shine like a beacon of blood.
And there's a third path which seems to be the course they're taking, and here are the grim milestones along the way:
1) Knesset interference with battlefield decisions and concern with world opinion prevent a ramp-up of the violence. CHECK.
2) Hezbollah and Israel get locked in a clench that lasts for years and becomes the new status quo. Neither side is defeated, but neither side is victorious.
3) Terrorist rockets continue to rain deeper and deeper into Israel, freedom and prosperity disappear as most citizens center their lives around the bomb shelter.
4) Israel becomes pauperized by the military expenditures and prevails on America to dig deeper into her pockets to subsidize the Zionist experiment.
5) The psychological deterrent value of the ten-foot tall Israeli soldier shrinks to Hobbit proportions (dragging the American soldier's reputation down with it).
One more for the Road.
Joel Johnny Mercer, actually.
1) Political/State Dept/CIA interference with battlefield decisions and concern with world opinion prevent a ramp-up of the violence. CHECK.
2) Baghdad is held hostage by the daily violence, which Milita-corrupted police fail to quell.
3) Confidence is lost as people weigh their own judgement of the significance of the situation in Baghdad with the official line.
4) Half-measures continue to be applied, this time being 3k additional troops, when many boots on the ground reports say at least 20k, working with the police, would be required.
5) Aristides declares war on Iran...
Damn!
I knew I wouldn't be able to pull it off!
C-4:
How many remember Popeye's Nephews name?
Joel lived it!
---
Mercer lived right up the hill from my wife!
When they were going to have a party her mom made her inform all the neighbors:
Mercer was at the piano, of course, which they often heard as he practiced.
C-4
Harding 'a terrible president' is urban legend created by the then emerging left intellectuals and MSM character smear tactic. He had a few scallywags in his admin no doubt - who's admin hasn't? He was deeply loved by the American population, he was honest, he was a hard worker, he ran one of our last classic liberal admins - minimal government interference in the citizen's lives. The economy was robust and while some seeds were germinating that would lead to a recession it would take the egomaniac and ultimate big government intrusions of Hoover and FDR to make a normal and necessary business recession cycle into a great and long depression.
So do some reading and enough with the juvinal cliches - 'Harding bad', 'neocons', 'Bushies', 'Jews'.It cheapons whatever good points you might actually have and causes many to simply skip what appears to be nothing but an extended silly rant.
Agree with Philg. And anyway the actual worst president--worst since George Washington, who instigated a war in order to become president--was the invader of his own country, the war monger Abraham Lincoln. The *best* president was Carter, who taught us to sing.
A book review by ROBERT D. KAPLAN at
http://www.opinionjournal.com/la/?id=110008674
makes an argument which might affect how view the Hezboallah fighting strategy
"In "Insurgents, Terrorists, and Militias," Richard H. Shultz Jr. and Andrea J. Dew, both of Tufts's Fletcher School, have produced a wise and cogent briefing book about who our enemies are and how to anticipate their field tactics. The problem, they state early on, is that the Pentagon--the product of a rational, science-based Western culture--relies on objective quantification for its analysis. But what happens, the authors ask, if there is nothing to quantify? What happens if the enemy is merely an organic part of the landscape, revealing its features only at the moment of attack? Well, then all we can do is study these "idiosyncratic" human landscapes and use anthropology to improve our intelligence assessments.
Forget Karl von Clausewitz's dictum that war is a last resort and circumscribed by the methodical actions and requirements of a state and its army. Forget Hugo Grotius's notion that war should be circumscribed by a law of nations. As the authors remind us, paraphrasing the anthropologist Harry Turney-High: "Tribal and clan chieftains did not employ war as a cold-blooded and calculated policy instrument. . . . Rather, it was fought for a host of social-psychological purposes and desires, which included . . . honor, glory, revenge, vengeance, and vendetta." With such motives, torture and beheadings become part of the normal ritual of war.
Because Mr. Shultz and Ms. Dew take tribes seriously, they don't stereotype them. The whole point of this book is that, because each tribal culture is unique, each will fight in its own way; it is a matter of knowing what a culture is truly capable of once it feels itself threatened. Thus the heart of the book is case studies."
aristides; 5:48 PM
It's not the devil in the details that concerns me; that's a given.
It's the devil in the premise, rather.
Whether the mounted lion's head on the wall is "defanged" (Rice) is irrelevant.
Prodicus on The Geneva Conventions
The Conventions expressly permit the targetting of offensive heavy weapons which have been deliberately sited among civilians. The resulting collateral damage to civilians is expressly not a war crime.
The Conventions expressly outlaw the deliberate targetting of civilians.
Hizbollah is committing war crimes in its openly admitted, indiscriminate targetting of the civilian population of Israel.
Israel is not committing war crimes in targetting Hizbollah' military capability.
For details of exactly how much damage Israel has done to Beirut, click here .
posted by Prodicus at LINK
The timidity of Israel's political leadership is appalling. While rockets continue to rain down on Israel's population centers IDF soldiers sit idle on the Israeli side of the border. There isn't a single rocket launcher capable of hitting Israel that is not within a day's march of the Israeli border. Most are a lot closer than that.
Olmert and his pansie-ass cabinet slink away from the difficult decisions and pass on a butcher's bill that will eventually require payment in the thousands. There is no reason to believe that today's 19 year old IDF trooper is any less skilled or any less valiant than those who preceded him. Olmert's caution crushes their bravado. An army that doesn't lust for battle is no army at all.
Even three Israeli cavalry companies marauding in the space between the fortified villages would accomplish much. The martyr's spirit serves the defender well. It's not easy to get people to sit in a hole and shoot until they're dead. But the martyr mentality when fighting conventional military units in the open is only the fast track to Valhallah. Even a single Israeli cavalry unit lagered outside the fortified towns, and within supporting fires of the border could not be defeated by Hizbu'allah. How many bodies would HB commanders throw against that phalanx?
Mein got! Do something Olmert, even if it's wrong.
It says the affected areas are shown in Grey: Where's that?
Wretchard stirred the pot..
" I know it's fashionable to knock bringing democracy to the Muslim world, but despite it all it remains, I think our last best hope. The alternative is to destroy them. To turn the Koran and the tradition that flows from it into a memory. "...
A sweet thought to destroy Islam. It is worthy of that, but not possible except under a regime that itself would have no accountability. Democracy? Possibly, but an intervening step is more important and that is the achievable goal of Secularism. The roots of which are already imbedded in most of the Islamic world and notably so in Iran. Our goal, and here I tip my hat to our controversial C-4. The US has to drop the moral certainty of the Bush evangelism for democracy. That does not mean forgetting about democracy, but it would be more practical, to practice some realpolitik. Theocracy no, Democracy good, but Secularism will do just fine.
That goal can be abetted with a focus on woman's rights. This is the real Achilles heal on Islam. It is where secularism has a real opportunity to change the insanity of the all male Allah-in-Wonderland, Mad-Hatters-Tea-Party called Islam.
cedarford,
You have provided much food for thought. Thanks.
2164th,
It seemed like secularism was doing pretty well for some Baathists in Baghdad in Sadaam days:
Certainly women had more opportunities than under the ROP.
Sure would be sad if some of the lack of hate between Sunni and Shiite is converted for good to what is "normal" in the region.
---
LONDON, England (CNN) -- British Prime Minister Tony Blair headed to Washington Friday where he was expected to press President George W. Bush on a swift solution to the Middle East crisis.
A British government spokesman traveling with Blair said the prime minister believes that the United States will be willing to support a U.N. resolution next week in the expectation that Israel will by then have sufficiently weakened Hezbollah with its military action.
CNN
---
Don't forget poppies, Papa.
UN Resolutions and "Weakened" Terrorists!
We're not Worthy!
Although C-4 deprives us by conforming to the 2 post rule, he does well in making up for that in total word count.
cedarford; 5:13 AM
General Patton may have anticipated your point: “Success is how high you bounce when you hit bottom.”
The wise old fox may have something to say to the current Coalition leadership, if they are listening:
“Prepare for the unknown by studying how others in the past have coped with the unforeseeable and the unpredictable.”
“A piece of spaghetti or a military unit can only be led from the front end.”
Try as I might, I find nothing in Patton’s history comparable to General Schoomaker’s quote, “I don’t think we’re losing.”
Yes, trish, I am going to keep beating that horse until it is dead.
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
allen,
The General, being an honorable man, did not want to lie to the Committee. So he could not say the US was winning. The most optimistic and honest reply available was the one he gave, after much reflection.
"We are not losing"
Which for the modern US military has been the objective. In Korea, Kosovo, Haiti, Afghanistan and Iraq.
The Federals have not even obtained that level of success on the US's own frontier.
So the Army is, by maintaining it's Standard of "Not Losing", still way ahead of the rest of the Mr Bush's Government.
That US Standard of performance has been transfered, along with the JDAMS, to the Israeli. They are "Not Losing", either.
I do not mind, buddy, that Mr Maliki and his Government support Iran and Hezbollah, buddy. I mind that young US troopers are dying to ensure the continuation of those Policies.
The lesser of two evils is still evil, it does not deserve US support, in the levels it is being given.
Seems abundently clear that aQ was not the "driver" of the violence in Iraq, but merely along for the ride.
Decapitating aQIraq led to no improvement on the Ground, in fact the situation has worsen since that virtual beheading.
The same will occur in Lebanon if the Hes man is popped and the Organization not dismantled.
He is, after all, the third HB leader, the previous job holders taken out by the Israeli, which has proven to be a poor long term solution.
Trucks leave Iraq for Syria, Somebody Fiddles and Clowns Around
Rat:
The Swift Boat guy was on Bennet:
Says "12 Million" is 30 MILLION!
The New Slave Trade and those that profit from it.
I had figured 24 million, that the Feds were "undercounting" to look "better".
Much like the number of HB combatants, an unknowable in Tel Aviv or Washington.
Habu: Israeli Blood, USA GI Blood is worthLESS than Jihadi Jizz
...Just ask 'Rat's soon to be EX Marine son.
Buy buy Amerika.
Globalism Rules.
Afain, Mr Peters
"... Now we see Arabs fighting tenaciously and effectively. What happened?
The answer's straightforward: Different cultures fight for different things. Arabs might jump up and down, wailing, "We will die for you Saddam!" But, in the clinch, they don't - they surrender. Conventional Arab armies fight badly because their conscripts and even the officers feel little loyalty to the states they serve - and even less to self-anointed national leaders.
But Arabs will fight to the bitter end for their religion, their families and the land their clan possesses. In southern Lebanon, Hezbollah exploits all three motivations. The Hezbollah guerrilla waiting to ambush an Israeli patrol believes he's fighting for his faith, his family and the earth beneath his feet. He'll kill anyone and give his own life to win.
We all need to stop making cartoon figures of such enemies. Hezbollah doesn't have tanks or jets, but it poses the toughest military problem Israel's ever faced. And Hezbollah may be the new model for Middle Eastern "armies."
The IDF's errors played into Hezbollah's hands. Initially relying on air power, the IDF ignored the basic military principles of surprise, mass and concentration of effort. Instead of aiming a shocking, concentrated blow at Hezbollah, the IDF dissipated its power by striking targets scattered throughout Lebanon - while failing to strike any of them decisively.
Even now, in the struggle for a handful of border villages, the IDF continues to commit its forces piecemeal - a lieutenant's mistake. Adding troops in increments allows the enemy to adjust to the increasing pressure - instead of being crushed by one mighty blow.
This is also an expensive fight for Israel in another way: financially. The precision weapons on which the IDF has relied so heavily - and to so little effect - cost anywhere from hundreds of thousands of dollars to seven figures per round. Israel has expended thousands of such weapons in an effort to spare its ground forces.
Theoretically, that's smart. But we don't live in a theoretical world. Such weapons are so expensive that arsenals are small. The United States already has had to replenish Israel's limited stockpiles - and our own supplies would not support a long war. ..."
He has more to say. at the NY Post
TARGET: HEZBOLLAH
"Even now, in the struggle for a handful of border villages, the IDF continues to commit its forces piecemeal - a lieutenant's mistake. Adding troops in increments allows the enemy to adjust to the increasing pressure - instead of being crushed by one mighty blow. "
---
Let's add 3k to Baghdad:
Rove can massage that.
Condi is tasked with a tune:
"Lonely Highway, Tehran to Beirut"
Meanwhile, on the Homefront, seems like Dearborn, MI is a hotbed of discontent.
How many HB cells were reported to be active in the US, a dozen of so are known. Like the 5,000 MS-13 operative's names on an ICE data base, just the tip of the iceberg.
Informative but not "good" news.
It's published in the "forward", which has a Yiddish edition, so may have a slight spin.
A Tweetie bird in the coal mine's pespective so to speak.
Beware Youthful Dearborn's Angry Intolerance
By Sharona Shapiro
"Like the 5,000 MS-13 operative's names on an ICE data base, just the tip of the iceberg."
---
The cool thing about that, is that the day after the EVENT, *all* the details will be in the NY Times.
...just like 9-11.
---
Atta liked Colgate:
Just like me.
Warm Fuzzies.
Old Steve Emerson had a video in 1994 that included Detroit, I believe.
I wonder how long it takes to transport that VCR tape to DC
via
Snail Express?
"Earning their Keep"
As was I when in Panama & Salvador.
My home and hearth were far away and not directly threaten.
In Salvador, it was more about the money, than any Patriotic fever.
Some in the US said the fellows we were helping were "Terrorists".
Some were, it's true.
Depending upon the definition of Terrorist used. Not at all like what the definition of is is, really. Even Mr Bolton cannot get the World to agree on a definition for a Terrorist.
Those HB fellows, they're described as "alleged militants" at the UN.
The Salvadorans, their militancy was not alledged, believe me.
Nuanced and New Toned.
Orwell would be pleased.
highly reccommended
RCPA World Unsettled by Missile Threats
By Daniel Henninger
The NYTimes
Tide of Arab Opinion Turns to Support for Hezbollah
By Neil MacFarquhar
glean some news from the spinning tornado
2164th:
That goal can be abetted with a focus on woman's rights. This is the real Achilles heal on Islam. It is where secularism has a real opportunity to change the insanity of the all male Allah-in-Wonderland, Mad-Hatters-Tea-Party called Islam...
This is a most important point. Why do we not apply more pressure here? Where are the "feminists?" (I know, I know...BDS incapacitates them.)
And Papa Bear writes:
But their big weakness is their economic unproductiveness. Without unearned income, without oil revenue and "aid"(Jizya) from the western world, they dry up and blow away.
The big target should be their sources of funds, the source of their means to train in Jihad without needing to hold a productive job. This includes welfare given to immigrants to the West...
Another superb point. Why do we not put more direct pressure on the sources of funding, and the madrassas and their idiot "imams?"
Jamie Irons
Excuse me! I am sooooo sick of this talk about a taxpayer supported peace keeping force to patrol the Israel-Lebenon border.
How's about an abject surrender? One where the population is happy to be able to turn in the perps, in order to stop what's become obvious; their total destruction.
IOW, just keep pounding the snot out of them, until the Lebonese agree to put a halt to Hez hostilities. If they don't honor their committments, rinse repeat.
I heard the UN mission was budgeted for $100M/year. Whoa. With peace and trade, that would translate into funding 100s of new companies, employing 1000s, and serving milions. Great, except for the gunfire, rockets, beheadings etc.
And, capitalism can change the power structure as fast as any of the other remedies past applied. See China.
Upon attaining success, one naturally becomes more conservative. (As in: I'd rather not lose all this, religion, tribe, sect, familial-ties, etc, aside.
Nationality, being reserved to protect its citizens from invasion by other nations has been a joke in and to the ME. Most of the peoples involved have had the boundaries redrawn each generation or so, while being ruled by thugs of various description all the while. And before that, they were all tribes. So, it's not as if they've had any practice at civility. Seeing it is not practicing it, and not being able to practice it makes for ENVY.
I'll bet that deep down, a majority of the Muslims are pissed about being born into this political-socialogical-intellectual bloody morass called Islam; but today to convert away in any manner is dangerous, all the way to murderous.
We need to disabuse mulladom of the idea that they can continue their "war crimes" against humanity, women, other faiths, etc. Bolton would be good.
Park one of those LEOs over the target and broadcast propaganda about what its like to be a safe, secular, successful human being. Make communications their worst enemy. Weaponize Dish and modems.
Fill the air with relevant interviews. Disrupt the thought police, every moment of everyday.
Get inside their OODA loop. Air immediate responses to the changing story.
The mullahs versus Wretchard. Hah!
Let's get going.
If you take at face value any NYT article about the USA or Israel you are a very gullible individual.
Because good Doctor,
the madrassas are schools and schools are "good". We construct the buildings, but not the lesson plans.
The sources of their funding are in my driveway.
In regards their idiot "imams". Those preachers represent the true Religion of Peace, which has been hijacked by a few evil doers, who are hiding in mountain caves and urban basements.
We "Stay the Course", Doc, which is why those things are not being done.
PeterBoston wrote:
If you take at face value any NYT article about the USA or Israel you are a very gullible individual...
I would tend to agree. But what do you think about the Ralph Peters analysis from the NY Post cited by DR above (6:43 AM)?
Jamie Irons
Ralph Peters must be right because he thinks like me. The timidity of Israel's political leadership during this rare window to dramatically affect the outcome of the Islamist War is unforgiveable. History may be less kind.
Yet you find it hard to believe reports from around the Arab world that the generational hate for Israel and an admiration for HB and it's leadersgip are to be discounted.
That what the Sauds reportedly say in private is the truth and what their public statements and their peoples beliefs and desires pale in signifigance to the tales told Mr Bush and Ms Rice?
The NYTimes piece tells the tale of the Arabs starting to side against Israel, instead of HB. That their hatred of the Jew is, in the medium term, greater than their distrust of the Shia.
What is so difficult to understand or unbelievable about that?
Rat, I realized and understood that your concern was with wasted lives and wasted effort, and not with Maliki per se. This is the same argument everyone is having, with others and with their own self. If what OIF is about is not preventing an even bloodier later bigger war--perhaps far bloodier and with far less prospect of victory--then anyone who supports it might well be, as you say in so many words, a moral idiot oblivious to the lives of soldiers.
"Democracy", as many keep saying, is not a result, it's a process. Yes indeed USA has been seeing some bad results. Wish it were otherwise, believe me. I'm with you all the way on that. But, if the process is foreordained, then it ain't real, it's like those Warsaw Pact elections.
I keep wondering if the western impulse that immediately after VE & VJ began dumping Churchills, Pattons, and North African colonies wasn't the end of western culture, and what we're doing now is only a long twilight denouement, playing out the big fireworks finale as we speak.
Maybe the lefties and hezzies are right. Maybe pro-westerners are dinosaurs who do not yet realize they're already extinct, because the west they're 'pro' is already only a memory.
Jamie Irons wrote:
This is a most important point. Why do we not apply more pressure here? Where are the "feminists?" (I know, I know...BDS incapacitates them.)
I don't see any feminists. I see a bunch of cosmetically-challenged women who supported a philanderer President from the allegations of Monica Lewinsky, Paula Jones, Gennifer Flowers, Juanita Brodderick, Kathleen Wiley, ad infinitum, ad nauseaum, because he delivered on gender quotas and federal funding, and this was before the first reported case of BDS.
buddy, there is no democracy in Iraq, there were a few votes,
Democracy starts locally, with "Ward Bosses", School Boards, City Councils, State Legislatures and the like.
Before there was a Federal Government in the US, there were 13 sepearate, democratic civil entities.
Grown from the root up.
In Iraq we spent no time building a democratic infrastructure, going straight for the flower and the fruit, instead.
Of course that top down route, the Socialist and Facist technique, inbred within the Iraqi, will fail to deliver democracy.
The entire democratic Iraq and Cedar Revolution deals have proven to be expensive eyewash, when an acid wash or tap water would have been just as effective.
One of the seminal documents on Arab fighting capability was done by Norvell B. de Atkine on Why Arabs Lose Wars - Fighting as you train, and the impact of culture on Arab military effectiveness and remains essential reading for those trying to understand the State based military systems found in Arab Nations in the Middle East. So, while I do agree that in many parts of the Arab Middle East individuals are taught from a young age on how to strip clean and AK-47, that, in and of itself, only makes them able to do that thing. The larger culture for actual military effectiveness is something else again, and the inability of State based militaries in Arab culture to actually engender fighting capability into their military organizations demonstrates how little that basics are encouraged for self-support in the field. By depending on a top-heavy infrastructure for command and control and diminishing the AK-47 wielders to being just that, and not soldiers trained to take the initiative even while taking heavy losses, leads to only one sort of warfare they can be effective at: attrition. They will look for single 'bold move' execution of set battle pieces, but, as the axiom goes, those fall to pieces on the appearance of the enemy.
From that overview terrorism is seen as *effective* as it has no end-game, in and of itself, but permits a State-based military to execute a 'single bold move' upon a disheartened enemy. The problem is that the terrorists tend not to 'go away' once a State military reaches its objectives and will disseminate back into the State itself. Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Lebanon, by tacitly supporting terrorism have now gained the ire of individual terrorist organizations over the past few decades, be they PLO, Hezbollah, Hamas or al Qaeda. Authoritarian States that promote terrorist capabilities, such as Iran, Syria and Iraq under Saddam, gained pretty much a free-pass from those organizations as each of those States was either necessary to furthering the attrition battles or had a nasty set of Secret Police that could root out terrorist cells viciously or both. Iraq did this through multiple sets of Secret Police, while Iran has done this with their Revolutionary/Special Guard units. By tight reign upon those forces and giving them only the most brutal of means to employ they also fit under the paradigm of the de Atkine review: do not reward initiative only compliance with orders.
As doug pointed out in the Bint Jbail link at the top of the thread, it was Israeli professionalism that won out. What was surprising, as pointed out by Bill Roggio, is that such was needed against Hezbollah there and at Maroun al-Ras. Now is this a change in type of attack or kind of attack? Are these pre-made, set piece battles to try and maximize limited capability for a small area or are they ad hoc, quickly organized affairs that are not pre-made nor set piece but put together to take advantage of a perceived weakness? Possibly a bit of both, actually, but to add the latter requires some original thinking outside of normal lines of command and control for small unit operations. This is not typific of Arab militaries.
Added into this is the two C-802a attacks against the Israeli warship and an unarmed merchantman. The first is a normality of war, with the Israeli's apparently not having their defense systems activated for various reasons. From accounts and descriptions of the second, however, is that it was *not* in the same targeting zone as the Israeli vessel nor was it hit as an incidental 'lock on' by a misguided missile fired at the Israeli vessel. It was a deliberate firing upon an unarmed merchant freighter with, from all accounts of it, Hezbollah personnel with Iranian trainers there to help them learn the operational use of the equipment. Now, I have been trying to track down the actual flag of the vessel involved, and reports still vary as of late yesterday as to it being Cambodian or Egyptian flagged. What is not in question is that it was Egyptian manned and unarmed. Using offensive weaponry to target an unarmed neutral vessel for target practice is commonly considered an act of war. The first ship is typific of Arab military organizations: set piece for surprise advantage. The second, when such has happened in past times in the Middle East, say the 19th century and previously, is one that puts other Nations and groups at warning of intentions via deliberate act. Thus it is also set piece, but to intimidate. Now, if they did *not* know to which Nation the vessel was flagged to or its actual ownership, it is a symbolic act to put all nations on warning that this equipment will be used indiscriminantly. If the vessel ownership or flagging *was* known, and not Egyptian in either, then the previous is also true, but an act of war against the Nation of flag or owner of the vessel. If it is Egypt in this latter case, then the intentional targeting and directing of fire and sinking of a known vessel belonging to Egypt is not only an act of war upon Egypt, but a clear warning that it should stay out of this conflict *or else*. Any of these three fall under typific actions expected by Arab military organizations, but foreknowledge and intent change characteristics of the actual event.
How does one interpret such events in the Middle East? Unfortunately, the Cold War era held the area in stasis and gave it a seemingly inflexible nature, while the Arabic culture pre-Cold War was one of constantly shifting alliances and allegiances over time. Thus John Manchester gives a quick summation in Shaken and Stirred and then I expand upon that with the Fault Lines view. The overly simplistic Sunni and Shia viewpoints lacks precision in not taking into account intra-sectarian differences within these major groupings, which are often just as vehement, if not moreso, than inter-sectarian problems. Also not properly covered is ethnic differences, which do not necessarily coincide with sectarian differences. In that view the Iranians are more aptly seen as Persians and their history with Arab peoples needs to be taken into consideration, also. Beyond large scale ethnic differences there are also tribal and familial associations which also cross borders, ethnicities and religions, and they, too lead to different sorts of conflicts and alliance outlooks. Add into this the Nationalism/Pan-Arabism/Transnationalist viewpoints, each having different strengths and weaknesses and different adherants varying by ethnicity, culture and religion, and the Middle East then starts to take on some of its true characteristics. And when one throws in educational perspective and reverence for same and the Ancient Great Civilization views between the two Valley culture sets (Tigris/Euphratese and Nile), then how and why certain peoples and regions react as they do becomes a counterbalancing summation of all of these things and how actors and players in the region will shift their viewpoint amongst them over time.
And they are *all* shifting now. Removing the stasis from Iraq and doing the early shifting of the outer sphere in Afghanistan only leaves Indonesia from the Islamic triangle as a focal point for Islamic fundamentalism and terrorism. An eye should be kept there, too, but the world is getting to be a busy place.
The provisos on my analysis for events are based on Hezbollah typifics changing to something that is non-standard Arab military, or into well armed and trained into set-piece mentality and actually being able to *execute* them better than other Arab military organizations. Via the multifaceted prism Hezbollah is an outgrowth between Iranian(Persian)/Shia fundamentalism that has invested heavily into long range delivery systems and more lethal long range capability to assert their religious outlook, and a basket case Syrian (Assyrian)/Alawite government seeking some capability to continue being a credible player in the region, even if it is just to be a new client state for another power (previously the USSR). One of the few interesting bits of reading from Gateway Pundit on the uprisings in Iran over the past six months or so, is the actual lack of capability for night ops of the Revolutionary/Special Guard units. They had problems asserting control into the night, while Hezbollah, supplied in the main from Iran, do *not* have that problem. Of course the R/S Guard are seen for internal control purposes, so investment in such capability is either not deemed warranted or not widely distributed. An interesting choice in either case, to arm an external foreign organization with such and not your own forces at home.
Well, time to post this before it is OBE, if it isn't already.
Iraq has the underpinning for growing a representative government that even the fledgling USA never had - tribalism. It's probably not too far off the mark to compare the tribal system to the ward system that flourished in US major metropolitan areas in the late 1800s and early 1900s.
Ward bosses and tribal leaders keep their positions by meeting the meat and potatoes needs of their constituencies. Next level bosses by delivering the goods to the ward bosses and up the ladder we go.
Iraqi tribal relationships are also multi-religious and multi-cultural. Not that there isn't sectarian violence from time to time. Always has been and probably always will be. Even Saddam had to bend to the tribal system although he made more than a few unsuccessful attempts to run around it.
The notion that any form of governance can be crammed down on the Iraqi population, short of having a loyal army that could enforce it, is contrary to the facts on the ground and the experience of Iraq.
You're right, Rat--and not being able to count on the next US administration following the long-range bottom-up evolution set up by the previous administration, is a severe strategic disadvantage for the Western system.
It may make individual freedom into a bloom--beautiful for awhile and then dead.
Gotta be some reason we went with FDR four times. No, I'm not saying let's make Bush president until we declare the GWoT over, though it would be the way to win the damn thing in the shortest possible time.
Or Hillary, put her in for-life, with a mandate to win this war.
Anybody. You, rat. Just find a way outta this war-losing domestic pissing contest, just long enough to settle this freaking mess.
buddy larsen said:
Gotta be some reason we went with FDR four times. No, I'm not saying let's make Bush president until we declare the GWoT over, though it would be the way to win the damn thing in the shortest possible time.
At that point when we annoint a Caesar (or wake up to find a Caesar already in place) because it is expedient for the war effort, the USA stops emulating the Roman Republic and starts to emulate the Roman Empire. There might even be another century or two of glory, but there's no turning back again.
No, rufus, the "good" we were doing was immediately apparant.
Where is the City Council of Ramadi, Haditha or Tanji? The School Boards, the Police? I'll tell ya, they are with the Enemy, hell they are the Enemy.
Be they the Sunni militias or the Shia. Both are the Enemy in the War on Terror. As are the Baathist, DAWA and SCIRI as well as Mr al-Jaafari, Mr Maliki and Mr al-Sadr.
But all thrived in a US adminstrated Iraq, while our allies were allowed to be sidelined, well before they should have been because neither the real Political nor Military Missions have yet to be accomplished, IMO, but not Mr Bush's.
Which if that is the Course we are on, fine and dandy. But Iraq has it's Parliment, it's PM and it's School Boards.
Jobs done, why not leave?
teresita, it was just a way of breaking the Hez march to the White House, which is apparently underway.
It just is another dot in the trend line, rufus, that is what is depressing.
This may be a big dot or a little dot, historicly, but will not, I think, indicate a change of course.
Jobs done, why not leave?
No, first we need time to set up downtown horse manure streetsweeping services, and barefoot tater-farming on highway rights-of-way training schools.
Sure, that's why Jr enlisted 4 years ago, why I supported the the Invasion of Iraq, the Democracy Project, School construction instead of patrols.
I gave 'em years to achieve success, stability and civility in Baghdad.
Route Irish, from the airport to the Embassy has NEVER been secured.
The Doctrine that has been employeed in Iraq for the past three years is seriously flawed. We are seeing another example of it feployeed in Lebanon.
In Lebanon, like Iraq, there is a local enemy and the distant enemies. Victory cannot be achieved locally.
Pruning branches will never kill a hedge row.
The distant enemy is the Caspian Axis. Whatever the military threshhold with the USA is, the Axis is unlikely to cross it deliberately--not so long as the capital (in both senses) of the west can be transferred more reliably by economic--er, free-trade--means.
So, rat, how we *ever* gonna fight the distant enemy, except where it pulls a gun on us?
Rufus, i didn't get the peace pipe news--breaking now?
I've linked to you here: http://consul-at-arms.blogspot.com/2006/07/re-pulp-fiction.html
Excellent observation, smacko, imho.
Read today that while Lockheed Martin has a laser that has shown the capability to reliably destroy Katyuska rockets in flight during tests at White Sands MR, Israel decided not to buy it, since their main worry was Scuds and long range missiles from Iran.
i don't mean to say i told you so, but it looks like i was correct. a ceasefire within a few days. hezbollah intat and uncowed. and the idf and israel left to pick up the pieces of their embarrassing, humiliating and shameful performance. their first outright defeat at the hands of the arabs.
it simply cannot be spun any other way.
I don't get it, rufus, sarah--Bush & Blair both declined to impose a cease-fire, though they did vow to continue to make a major effort on 1559. Where's the defeat? A big plus ongoing is the emerging clarity of the mullah threat--this is a stage we have to pass through before the nations will be prepared to deal with it. We're now passing through that stage, it seems.
"... BEIRUT - Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Siniora secured a political victory by convincing Hezbollah government members to back his plan for a ceasefire with Israel but it remained unclear on Friday whether the move went beyond symbolic value.
Hezbollah said that it had taken its stance to “reinforce national unity” while Sinora’s allies hailed the decision as an important step in improving the credibility of the Lebanese government on the world stage. ..."
Khaleej Times Online
Hezbollah backs Lebanon PM truce plan
Buddy,
What don't you get?
In 2 weeks, Hezbollah has launched upwards of 2K missiles at Israel. The IDF has been shown to be impotent to stop them.
Never before has an arab force been shown to have the capability to attack Israel with impunity.
In 2 weeks, Hezbollah's leadership and cadres remain intact and confident.
By contrast, 2 weeks in to 1967 and 1973 the Egyptian mlitary had ceased to exist, theur armies surrounded and cut off. IDF forces were on the outskirts of Damascus. They had captured territory more than 300% the area of Israel.
In 2 weeks, IDF forces have captured a hilltop, and tenuously at that.
In 2 weeks, Israel has exhausted its weapon stores to the point that needs urgent US resupply and it has failed to put a dent in the Hezbollah, much less lay a finger on their Iranian and Syrian overlords.
In 2 weeks, the arabs have seen and the world has witnessed, in the open and o television, that the IDF is a shell of what it once was.
Forget about projecting force beyond its borders, it is no longer able to defend its own territory.
This is but hte latest in a string of humiliating Israeli defeats beginning with their captulation in 1982 that allowed the PLO safe passage out of Lebanon.
Since then you've had the Intifada which led to Oslo, withdrawal from main West Bank cities, retreat from Lebanon, retreat from Gaza, soon to be retreat from the West Bank and Jerusalem, and at the end of this ceasefire, retreat from the Har Dov/Shebba Farms area.
The Olmert Govt led by a lawyer and a labor leader defense minister has proven itself unable to handle the current conflict.
The IDF has been exposed and embarrassed in front of the world. It will take them years to recover, if they can.
Is this what we give Israel BILLIONS in aid for every year? So that they can be defeated and embarrassed by Hezbollah. So that pur client can be defeated by Iran and Syria's client.
This is as big a defeat for Israel and the US as the 6 day war was a victory. You don't think the US congress wil rethink their aid packages after seeing how ineffectively they are being used?
I never thought I would see the day when Israel would be defeated by an arab force, much less an arab force of a few thousand at most with no tanks, no planes, no navy, no real artillery, no nuclear weapons, no helicopters, no armored forces, no nothing.
And deep down, I bet none of you did either.
Israel has gone from talking of crushing the Hezbollah on July 12 to talking of a 1 mile security zone and an international force to bail them out on July 28.
Their rehtoric has been exposed as empty. They talk of red lines in attacking Haifa. There weren't any red lines. Iran and Syria are laughing at Jerusalem, as is Washington.
Meanwhile, Cairo and Amman are taking notes, as is Riyadh.
This is a humiliating display by the IDF. I talk to people I know in Israel and they are shocked. This will have broad consequences. Olmert will be out by the end of the year.
Perhaps the only good to come out of this is the return to power of the Likud and the end of Olmert's surrender of the West Bank and Jerusalem.
"... Israeli officials and intelligence sources said Iran and Syria have accelerated the flow of weapons and combatants into Lebanon. They said Damascus and Teheran have also been bolstering forces to prepare for a war from Syrian territory.
"They [Syrians] are operating along the border and we can't ignore this," Israeli Cabinet minister Eli Yishai said on Friday.
Rufus said:
"By the way, you can't get from religionism to secularism without going through another ism, first. By far the best mid-point is "Capitalism." Communism has been tried, but then you run into a whole new set of problems. Democracy helps, but you really can't have "Democracy" without Capitalism. "
Ever try and buy anything in the Middle East? These people understand capitalism. Get a Palestinian in a normal enviornment, or a Lebanese or Egyptian. Look at the Pakis in Flushing, New York. Twenty four carat Islam is the problem.
Sarah
I don't believe the problem is with the IDF. There is no evidence of that. The problem is with the political leadership. Golda had more cookies than the entire current cabinet.
Israel can also turn the situtation around by just going to bat. Olmert is keeping them in the dugout.
There may be something to the Netanyahu observation. He appears very confident that HB will be fully engaged. I have no idea if he acts like that in private and to his credit neither does anybody else.
Sarah, your fears are based on comparisons of past wars, according to your posts, so let me ask you to compare any two wars from any two times in history, and see if you won't find the same divergents.
You might as well say the South won the moral victory of the Civil War, because in WWII the turning point came a year in, while in the Civil War it came three years in. Joe Buzz went over that cognitive problem at some length near the bottom of the previous thread.
Different war, different enemy, different ground, different tactics.
Besides, two weeks into the Yom Kippur War, Israel was in deep trouble, Ari Sharon had not yet made his dash to the Suez, and IDF was getting clobbered by new Russian weapons. Lost many hundreds of tanks and aircraft, thousands of KIA. Still won the war, though.
Scott,
4-10 weeks? Israel doesn't have 4-10 days. This will all be over by this time next week. You can tell from the Bush/Blair presser today, from the Israeli capitulation of yesterday, and by the rhetoric coming from the arabs.
2 weeks in they have a few hundred guys milling about some hills a mile or so from the border.
What happened to the IDF that drove to the Canal in 2 days, that conquered the West Bank and Jerusalem in 2 days, and that took the Golan Heights and threatened Damascus in the same two days.
The IDF that 25 years ago drove to Beirut in under a week.
That IDF is long gone. Replaced by one that is unable to take casualties and one whose leadership surrenders after 9 dead.
If Israel was tough and willing to do what was necessary, they would have wiped out the Hezbollah by now.
They'd have had a few hundred dead, but Hezbollah would have had upwards of ten thousand dead and would have ceased to exist.
Instead, they waste their time bombing emtpy buildings and depleting their stocks to the point of begging the US to resupply them.
This is what happens when Israel elects a peace govt with men like Olmert( a lawyer with no military prowess), Peretz(a labor leader with a peacenik background), Peres(a dove of doves) and others.
Hopefully they will learn their lesson and as i predicted remove the govt through a no confidence vote by the end of the year.
Sarah,
April 30, 1943 a Spanish fisherman discovered the body of Major William Martin, a British Royal Marines courier. There was a briefcase attached to the dead man's wrist, which contained personal correspondence and documents related to the impending Allied invasion of Sardinia, in Greece. Spanish authorities notified the Germans, who moved quickly to fortify the Greek coast, leaving Sicily almost completely undefended. This was exactly what the Allies had intended. This was the Man who never was. A British spy-counter-spy classic deception. I hope that is what we are seeing with Hezbollah. If not I agree with you. And by the way, there is no reason for Israel to ask the US to foot the bill this time. Hopefully they don't even ask.
PeterBoston is right--the globe will forever feel the effects of Araby having squandered its one-time oil gift on war instead of investing it in return-generating productivity.
Too many centuries of caravan-robbing and Mediterranean piracy, I guess.
As of now, here is what the situation will be when the guns fall silent within the next week:
Hezbollah:
-Leadership fully intact, Nasrallah triumphant
-Arsenal fully intact and replenished by Iran and Syria
-Achieved release of hundreds if not thousands of lebanese prisoners
-Achieved Israeli surrender of Har Dov/Shebba Farms area
-Cemented themselves as the only arab/muslim force that has defeated both the United States and Israel, and in embarrassing and humiliating fashions
-Maintained their strongholds in the Bekka Valley
-Vaulted their patron Iran into position as the true regional superpower, supplanting Israel
-Displaced AQ as leader of the Jihad
I could go on and on
Israel:
-Achieved release of 2 soldiers
-Surrendered Har Dov/Shebba Farms area
-Failed to touch hezbollah in any meaningful way
-failed to touch Iran and Syria at all
-Exposed their fear of casualties and lack of resolve to the entire arab and muslim world
Iran:
-Achieved regional superpower status
-Guaranteed their nuclear program most likely
US:
-Saw its main client in the region go down to a humiliating defeat
As Jack Ross said in "A Few Good Men", these are the facts, they are indisputable
rufus, NO, not sooper-dooper alert!
Meanwhile the Global War continues, sorry, another Local Conflict is expanding.
The LA Times reports
Afghanistan in Africa
While the Middle East burns, Somalia is degenerating into the next 1990s Afghanistan
The LA Times advises reaching out negotiating with the "Moderate" Muslims in Somalia.
Tic toc tic, is not quite the same as tit for tat
Another run-down: Somalian Islamists--on the horn of Africa, astride the trade routes--are apparently coordinating with Iran/Hez Leb push. Planeloads of weapons coming in from Eritria. Jeezis. Storm a-coming.
Just another Local, Hamadanian flare up, buddy.
No Leadership in the Global War on Terror. In fact the Supremes have decided there is no such thing.
The President and Congress could change that, at will.
But do not, it is "off the table"
The Trends continue
Somalia has been smoldering since the Clinton years. The Blackhawk Down story is not entirely dissimilar from today's Israel story. A lawyer CEO never gives the order to engage the enemy.
The butchers bill always comes back higher.
Here's the long term plan.
All U.S. Marine combat veterans get a country estate and 10 fecund wives. We are just going to have to breed manliness back into the system.
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
I have come to the firm conclusion that Islam just makes people go completely insane.
It is a religion that induces a state of paranoid schizophrenia in its followers the world over.
From self mutilation to honor killings, to acts of barbarism against the living and the corpses of the dead, if it is all in the name of father Allah, to the use of the righteous white heat of the atom to wipe out the "kafir", then it is seen as good that will be rewarded.
As the storm gathers, I wonder if the west still has the moral courage to call Islam out for what it is and will to fight the battle to control it.
Or has the pathology of political correctness slipped us into a state of unbreakable delusion?
Tic toc tic
Turkish Troops Enter Iraq and Fire Rockets
According to the Iraqi newspaper Al-Rafidayn, about 200 Turkish soldiers along with some village guards crossed over Iraq’s northern border sometime before 3:00 p.m. on Wednesday and fired several rockets, apparently targeting the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a Kurdish terrorist organization which has taken refuge in Iraqi Kurdistan.
by Kirk H. Sowell
I would have thought, PB, you'd be setting those Roman style estates aside for Airborne Combat Engineers and Copter pilots, or did you spend a few years in the Marines as well?
Getting over the abyss from the Tribe to the Individual in the City is one of the most difficult jumps in human history. We - in the West - call it "The Industrial Revolution." Take another look at some of Hogarth's drawings to get a taste of that jump.
But then, we had Christianity to justify this "jump". Jesus turned his back on his mother. When the tribe was preparing to stone the adulteress, he told them to - each of them - look into their own pasts and souls, for their own failings. This is not "kindness" in the modern boneless Christian world - it is DIFFICULT to become an individual with all that goes with that.
Shame. Now, shame/honour cultures are completely non-individual. To avoid shame, to avoid the tribe stoning one to death, or to cast me out of the tribe - I will ally myself to the UNCHANGING mores of that tribe.
If you don't live in a Shame culture, you are able to change, to learn new things, new ways (a lot of them totally horrible, I admit)... thus the modern armies of the West, versus the tribal entities of the ME.
And where are women in all this? In the tribe, women carry the tribe's hates unto the next generation. They ensure that their brothers and their husbands kill the tribe's enemies. And if any woman should try to step out of the tribe, the other women will provide the stone or the knife to kill that woman.
You see, this is not a 'clash of civilizations'. This is a fight between the civilization and the tribe.
Relative to Rufas' 1100:
I did not think that the F-15's we sold Israel had a ground attack capability. That was a big no-no. Upset the Saudies, y'know.
I wondered if a TV news report I saw saying F-15's were being used in ground attack was an error. Clearly it was not. The Eagles may not have had ground attack capability when they left St. Louis, but they do now. Not surprising when you consider that IAI has built jet fighter airframes from scratch and guidance computers for American space boosters.
Anyway, that answers a question I had over what the IDF would use to haul those big bunker busters. The 4K lb models we built for Desert Storm required an F-111F to tote them. An F-16 will not hack it, I don't think. An F-15 will do it nicely. Someone may be in for a big surprise.
DR
I am a proud 82nd Airborne combat engineer alumnus. I have no clue where the helicopter pilot came from.
Over the years I have developed a growing respect for the U.S. Marines and now freely admit that a Marine combat team is the most lethal organism to ever inhabit the earth.
Brilliant Heather.
But, PB, keeping up with 10 wives probably *would* require some airborne training.
Thanks, 2164.
I wonder about Secularism beating Islam. Compare the Cathedral and the Mosque to the Empire State Building. The latter is great because it's BIG. But the other two, well, they evoke emotion, tears, and love.
The trouble is the Cathedrals are empty. I depend upon the the Fundamentalist Christians in Africa and in Korea and in the American south... and of course, the Mormons... to win this war, if we win it at all.
Maybe before long the cathedrals will fill back up.
Rabid rats and poisonous snakes don't have tanks, planes and artillery either. Hizbu'allah is at the same civilizational threat level and and at a certain number should be killed off for the same reasons.
As far as secularism beating Islam. I am not that much of an optimist. My hopes are far more modest, how about a seduction more than a triumph? A nice Arabian gelding will do just fine. Liberal democracy has won the battle over Christianity. Christians are scary and have been fairly well routed in the US and the EU is very vexed by the historical tie with Christianity. No the Christian Soldiers no longer heed the call to go Onward. Vexation is catching and the US military is being de-Christianized as well, regardless that it is 98% nominally Christian. And do not let anyone tell you differnet. Any military cemetery from WWII is a field of crosses with a slight sprinkle of the Star of David. Eisenhower, Patton and many others invoked prayer and Divine intervention. Priests, pastors and rabbis risked their lives to give the wounded and dying comfort because they were men of faith. So it goes.
Yes, buddy, that is Mr Putin's plan.
A return to "Saint Russia"
The Cossocks ride, again!
My problem is that the alternative to the Christian faith (which provided the conditions for the Industrial world we live in) is the comforting warmth of the Tribe, supported by Islam.
Facing yourself and your sins - instead of stoning the village adulteress with the rest of the tribe - is very uncomfortable. And the Modern World is uncomfortable for most people. Or so I think.
To fight a Faith, you need a Faith. Our Faith, our Christian Faith, make all those splendid rockets possible. But, the fear is, with only a shadow of our Faith, the rockets cannot win this War.
Do we have the stones to do what our fathers did and fund a new Manhatten Project and built a real alternative to the Internal Combusion engine, thus cutting the $$$ that buys the Katushka rockets?? Or do we continue to depend on "guest worker programs" and Israel to do our dirty work???
Make that a gentle sprinkle. "Slight" has a connotation not felt and certainly not intended. The military cemeteries reflect dead American military whose faith, Christianity and Judaism were important to them and the familes that lost them
Don't be fooled--secularism is just as much a religion. It just worships rationality, is all. And, hey, not that there's anything wrong wit dat. Except that everything gets ratio-analyzed toward solipsism. And the NEW GOLDEN CALF is IRONY and and and...(*gak*) oh, me, i sprung a leak--
You should hop aboard the Golden Hind, buddy.
rat, you're right about Putin. That is precisely his path toward new Empire--thru re-awakening the long-suppressed tremendous piety of the Russian people.
Rufus,
Great point about manpower. One can tell how serious and dedicated Bush is to achieving victory by the fact that he has 150K at most in the field fighting.
In WW2, FDR was committed to victory. he mobilized 15,000,000+ men under arms. Well over 100 times the amount has Bush has.
In 5 yrs since 9/11 the size of the mlitary has not increased, the number of divisions, planes, tanks, ships has not increased. the number of men has not increased.
If Bush was serious about victory he would have called for a massive force. The US can easily support a 20M man force to go in and annihilate Islam and its terrorists once and for all. The fighting wouyld have been long over by now.
Bush is just in this for fun. He's not serious about winning. He never has been.
The "Crusaders" did NOT get their clock cleaned. They did pretty damned well, and hung onto their redoubts in the ME for a couple hundred years. And, given an unremitting series of attacks by the Forces of Islam (which completely defeated Christian Africa and Christian ME), Europe did pretty well, actually. It was Christian leadership that won in Vienna and Malta and Poitiers. I guess you can still see the Leonine walls, built to protect the Vatican against Arab raiders. Its been a long history, from Medina to today.
So DO NOT DISCOUNT THE CRUSADERS. A motley crew, but a damned courageous one, too. And I haven't even gone into the very long history of Byzantium - CHRISTIAN - Byzantium in fending off Islam... until the Euro Christians destroyed them...
Our top priorities in Lebanon are providing immediate humanitarian relief, achieving an end to the violence, ensuring the return of displaced persons, and assisting with reconstruction. We recognize that many Lebanese people have lost their homes, so we'll help rebuild the civilian infrastructure that will allow them to return home safely. ...
...We agree that a multinational force must be dispatched to Lebanon quickly, to augment a Lebanese army as it moves to the south of that country. An effective multinational force will help speed delivery of humanitarian relief, facilitate the return of displaced persons, and support the Lebanese government as it asserts full sovereignty over its territory and guards its borders. ..."
Mr Bush's opening remarks, today.
Haven’t the 2 hours available to muddle through all of the excellent comments here so I apologize if this has already been discussed, but doesn’t seem like the “Islamic Way” to get cornered, demand a cease-fire, than to proceed with re-marshalling resources so that the attack can be rejoined with more vigor. This is how brats do it in the school yard and this is how “The Party of God” can be expected to behave. What are the chances that Hezbollah would proffer a cease-fire if the Israeli’s were up against the ropes?
Sarah, the international press already excoriates him relentlessly for even saying that there is a war at all.
Can't do squat without public support--FDR knew that, too. He just happened to *have* it.
Bush, whether his fault or not, is reduced to making weekly speeches wherein the message is always the same: "Hey, we're at WAR, people! Really really, really! We are, we are, we are! I'm not kidding, no fooling, really!"
Bush HAD Public Support. he had it from 9/11 until the end of summer 2003. he failed to utilize the public support.
He's a failed President who will leave office on Jan 20, 2009 with Ahmadinejad and Kameini still in power in Tehran, Assad still in power in Damascus, Nasrallah amd Mughniyeh still in control in Beirut, Bin Laden and Zawahiri still in command of AQ, Afgfhanistan still in chaos, Iraq furmly under Tehran's thumb, Iran with nuclear weapons, and the US having squandered its chances at victory.
By any measure, Bush will have failed in his war leadership. Hopefully the next C in C is up to the task. W certainly isn't.
It's a stall, 'Rat. The Resolution that will pass the UN will be equitable, which means you won't like it. It will call for a ceasefire, an international force to augment Lebanon's Army, and all the stuff that was in Bush's opening remarks. It will appear that Hezbollah has squeaked out a victory. But then you will hear that the preconditions for a ceasefire remain Israeli acceptance, Lebanese acceptance, and Hezbollah disarmament.
And the fight will continue.
Christianity is vexing because it gets in the way of the self-anointed elites ensconcement as the final arbiter of social values. Post modern liberalism is a failure even if the NYT editorial board will not admit it.
Why is post modern liberalism a failure? Because although human beings can be controlled with force we are far too complex to manage. A 1,000 page constitution is an impressive work, but by its nature is so filled with conflicts and contradictions that no heirachy of social values can ever be universally established or accepted.
The wheels of history turn slowly but turn they do. The cracks in liberal elitism become more apparent the more it rubs against Islam, which if nothing else is robust and unyielding. People may be slow to react but they are not stupid. I don't know how far Notre Dame is from the French Bureacracy Breeder Ecole but I'll bet most Parisians do.
DR,
what are you getting at with displaced persons in bold? what is your point?
It is not Mr Bush's words that are lacking, buddy, it is his actions that have fallen short.
I do not believe the fault can all be laid on Mr Bush's desk, but that is where the "buck" stops.
The IAF's lack of success suppressing a 150 sq mile launch zone lays bare the truth of Iran's geographic advantage and technical competency.
The idea that the IAF could successfully disable the Iranian nuclear capacity also laid bare.
The multiple hits required on the Beirut bunker may be instructive. As rwe relate the "big boy" bunker buster may change the equation, a bit, but Iran's bunkers are dug in better than the HB, I wager.
Sarah, I think you need to do something else for a couple of weeks. Otherwise I'm not sure you're going to be able to handle the stress.
The situation is fluid, but the objectives are stationary. If I'm wrong, and Olmert throws in the towel, Netanyahu will ascend in Israeli politics, and we'll do this all over again. That would suck. But it wouldn't be the end of the world.
So relax. We're going to win. Even if we have to lose more before we're serious.
The United States has spent upwards of 2.5 TRILLION dollars on defense since 9/11, and what have we achieved for that? How cost effective is our war compared to Mohammed's?
How many bad guys have we killed in 5 yrs?
How many of them have been replaced?
How many islamic leaders have unconditionally surrendered?
How many unconditional surrenders have we even called for?
The enemy has now lasted longer than either the Nazis or the Nips did. Victory is nowhere in sight.
It is a true shame that western leaders continue to fail their people.
Heather, you could add Lepanto to those big three turn-backs.
And note, in each case, Islam was stopped, and turned back, but never was it pursued back into its own lands.
Sorta like Korea, & Vietnam, where the aggressor knew he could only lose his attack, not his nation.
My point, sarah, is that for Israel to have gained an advantage over HB the population would have to remain displaced. That as the people return, so will HB,
With the amount of construction traffic that will be subsidized by US, HB will be able to resupply.
When the population returns, HB will still be swimming in the sea.
Their construction companies and Social Service agencies gaining even more influence.
They will agree to the Lebanonese Army taking the responsibility for the border zone. Then corrupt the Army and the Government. They will still have the Ground, reinforced.
When all is said and done, bet HB is Lebanon.
Sarah has to balance the scales with THINGS like this:
Shutup and take off your clothes!
This woman is Susie Benjamin, who changed her name during her one year at Tufts University to Medea.
She is about as anti-American a person as you can find. Frontpage Magazine has done a complete write-up on her past, linked here .
But to summarize, she's essentially pro-Castro, pro-Saddam, pro-Taliban, anti-capitalism. She spoke at a peace rally organized by the communist-leaning Workers World Party.
She was very much a part of creating the human shields for Saddam Hussein's Iraq, to try and stop us from going to war in 2003.
She's been arrested for being a public nuisance more times than Morgana, the famous Kissing Bandit
doug, Medea's a religious zealot. All the religious zealots--including the secular ones on the left wing of the Dems, are on the same side, against--what? What are we?
"What are we?"
---
The Order of the Hot Tub Baptismals.
the Knights Tipplers
o/t, but if you haven't seen Bolton/Kerry contretemps, it's well worth the look.
Somebody's gotta post jamie's picture on blogger so he can link it and we all don't have to wait for him.
The Dr cannot Heel himself.
(See Achilles above.)
Sarah,
Your posts are beginning to border on the ridiculous. The fact is that President Bush has to work in an environment where almost half of the elected officials hope he fails, probably 80% of the major media feels the same way (and slants reporting appropriately) which then gives the public a grossly inaccurate depiction of what is happening. The same applies to the majority of the other nations in the world. It would not have been possible for him to go about this in the manner that you would have liked. There was never enough public support, Democratic support, or support from other nations to be able to do that. So he is stuck with making the best of the situation. And he has done a pretty darn good job of that to this point.
DR,
I completely agree. And you know that some IRGCs will be part of those returning refugees, part of thos who help rebuild.
Even Haaretz, the leftist peacenik newspaper is seeing what's happening and calling for a deciaive blow.
Maybe Israel has some ace up its sleeve, some hammer they're just waiting to drop. But I don't see it.
I think they've climaxed so to speak and we're now seeing the resolution phase.
Sarah,
Look, the metrics you ask about may not even be relevant. How many people have we killed? How many people have they killed? If we compute it, can you divine whether those raw figures spell success or failure? I'll go ahead and answer for you: no.
The brutality of our enemy has framed the fight as the battle between good and evil. The more that evil is seen, especially if it is once again brought to these shores, the more "resolve" will replace "doubt". The worse it gets, the more menacing becomes America's heart, the more concentrating her brow. If it gets bad enough, theory and idealism will be put on the shelf. The war will become a simple question of raw power and raw will. And then we win, brutally and unselfconsciously.
That's going to be tough on our enemies, but only sad for us. The textbooks one hundred years from now may call us genocidal, like they do now about the Indians. But they'll still be written in English.
If we'd been more aggressive and unrelenting 3 years ago, more could have been done, imo.
Actually, the case could be made NOW for breaking some of Baby's Docs toys, and killing some of his buddies.
Collaterally, of course.
Baby Doc's toys
I fully acknowledge my posts are a bit overwrought. It's just the frustration at what I'm seeing.
Jamie,
Here's your Raven on Blogger's usually faster server:
You can link to it there.
---
Raven
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6451/556/1600/Raven.png
DR
You certainly are consistent in choosing the worst possible outcome from every situation. While it's clear the IDF has dropped the ball killing-off HB fighters it should be equally clear that the IAF has destroyed a good deal of HB infrastructure. That includes economic infrastructure. The bank tellers included in those civilian casualty numbers were working at HB owned banks and dozens of other income generating businesses that no longer exist.
HB wasn't popular because they looked snappy in parade dress. They were popular because they delvered the goods to some portion of the Lebanese population. Their popularity will diminish in direct proportion to their inability to deliver the goods after the shooting stops. Iran and Syria aren't exactly deep pockets either. Perhaps the Saudis will try to buy them off but even that would be better than having an Iranian division in Lebanon.
I'm very disappointed that we may not get a shot at the best possible outcome but the worst possible outcome is not a lock either.
Sarah,
Just imagine how quiet we would all be if it was Clinton/Albright letting Baby go unmolested all these years.
Har Har
Like the FALN is reformed, we would.
International markets had one of thier best weeks in history this week, after the war scared 'em silly the previous week. The markets often have some sort of agglomerated intelligence that is best described as either backing confidence in the future, or not, and thus creating confidence, or not.
Perhaps significantly, the oil-services companies broke sharply down--and they've been the mineshaft canaries for heavy mideast trouble.
Today they broke downward. No pattern yet, but--as they say, developing. Also, gold was flat--Odd on a Friday before this scary a weekend. Basically, the markets are saying that they're starting to believe that Israel is beginning a big win, IMHO (which ain't bad because I bet my ass everyday and still my ass "ain't losing" as the generals say).
""Hey, we're at WAR, people! Really really, really! We are, we are, we are! I'm not kidding, no fooling, really!
(That's why I have only 1 Veto:
Serious Business)
You guys fill in the enemy part, I'm New Tony:
Heere's Tony!"
2:29 PM I propose a new car for every returnee.
Humvee's even.
Maybe he gonna veto YOU, doug.
(Ya gotta work for the gun mounts.)
I done already been vetoed out by the missus:
Say, where's P-Tator?
That ain't a bad idea, really, doug. Ben Stein has a proposal of a surtax over a certain amount of income, to go directly to compensation for soldiers. I'll see if i can find it.
Hey, Whit--good to see ya!
The end game has been announced, terms proclaimed. The schedule is conditions based, but there is a schedule none the less.
Ms Rice is going wheels up, the HB in Lebanon's Government have agreed to the Lebanonese Government's cease fire proposal. It is the first stop on Ms Rice's trip. Then off to see Mr Olmert.
A "robust" International force and the Lebanonese Army. Give HB different uniforms and there you go.
FOX reports the IDF mobilization toned down, officers only, now.
Some lady named Jennifer
Achillea posted this in the previous thread:
Why Arabs Lose Wars .
2:40 PM
I meant the LEBANESE retunees, Jingo Man!
redaktør said...
"Say the IDF surrounds and destroys Hizbollah. What comes next? I\'ll tell you what comes next, the same old skit."
Hardly, an Israeli win is monumental. Iran would be set back and there would be a sigh of relief from several Arab states that Israel helped stop an emerging Iran. With anything short of a victory, Iran and Hezbollah win. No matter what the cost of this war, Israel will never get a cheaper shot. A cease fire and negotiation makes sense if Hezbollah is disarmed. They will never agree to that willingly. Things could not be more clear for Israel. They destroy Hezbollah or their future and fate is no longer their own.
scroll down two/thirds of the way. The script speaks of 5%, but he's evolved it to 10% of the tax liability alone, on the top 1% of incomes. Sez, for the topsters, it's a few extra bucks, for the soldiers, it gets the wolf away from the door for the most indispensable members of society.
"Israel will never get a cheaper shot."
---
The WORLD will never get a cheaper shot.
*Massive* miscalculation by the Hezzies.
...except it wasn't.
The trip wire has been set so to speak. Syria is living up to their pledges to Tehran by supplying Syria with longer range missiles according to the a Drudge reference to the World Tribune.
“They said Syria has transferred Zelzal-2 batteries, with a range of more than 200 kilometers, to Hizbullah's Nasser Brigade.”
It should be pretty interesting to hear what is being said through diplomatic channels. Tehran says they will join the war if Syria is attacked. Syria is making that a near inevitability. I wondered if the US has quietly mentioned that they are in a good position to attack the weaker of states, Syria if they overtly escalate the violence? Meanwhile Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, is holed up in the Iranian Embassy, if that doesn’t say it all where the shots are being called, I don’t know what does. Looking closely for fleet maneuvers.
More predictions and hopes for my way of life.
All is guessed based on believed capabilities, not my judgment of another’s intention.
The world today looks more like August 1914 than ever in my life. Things are beginning to spin out of control. And low level despots and other similar humans were the catalysts then, and maybe now.
The historical USA predisposition to appeasement and non involvement is alive and well. This intuition by many of my fellow citizens has been exploited by the recent national democratic party, which does not help, but also, does not hurt. I am an American with all the hopes for my progeny and our future. Most of my local friends on the Cumberland Plateau are the old time democrats who say the obvious, let them all kill themselves. And we stay at home.
All also sense things could be different now. I am writing from the area of Sgt York where the hero of WWI came back to be a really good pacifist and citizen. Most are still this way, but again, something is different in the air at the local restaurant, for example. Our focus these days is on the return of the 1893 railroad, for good business reasons.
Since I am acting as an unelected representative , I will continue. We have a way of life to preserve, but the government is failing us in the Iraq policy (which we support), but casualties from the 278th ACR (National Guard) deployment to Iraq do hit home.
Since I am a retired Marine, I read a lot and think I know history. In history Marines have been called communists more often than others because we read, march, and observe.
Now we have the middle east dilemma.
Good idea, but good luck!
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Yuck!
Did you see that Kerry clip just above?
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I give that Blog credit for giving the opposite story of the CNN Guy with the British accent that promoted the Hezzie Love Tour.
My last was in response to Larsen.
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