Saturday, July 22, 2006

Israel Begins the Ground Campaign

Well, the IDF is reported to have gone into Lebanon. Fox says:

ON THE ISRAEL-LEBANON BORDER — Hundreds of Israeli troops moved into southern Lebanon on Saturday, taking control of a village and engaging Hezbollah militants by land, sea and air as part of the country's limited ground campaign. The soldiers — backed by artillery and tank fire — moved into the large Lebanese village of Maroun al-Ras in several rounds and took control, military officials said on condition of anonymity. That included a group of Israeli tanks, bulldozers and personnel carriers that knocked down a border fence and entered the area at about 3 p.m (1200 GMT). The equipment and about 25 soldiers raced past a U.N. outpost and headed into the village where other Israeli soldiers already had control. But gunfire could be heard from the village, and artillery based inside Israel also was firing into the area.


The IDF penetration at Maroun al-Ras was in the scene of heavy fighting that the Belmont Club looked at the post: the Lebanese Border. The location of Maroun al-Ras can be determined from a post by Israel Matzav of July 21.

The Jerusalem Post is reporting two of the IDF soldiers out of the eight or nine who have been reported all afternoon as being wounded in the fighting on the Lebanese border today were actually killed. ...  The following is from the Jerusalem Post's summary: "Fighting took place near the Lebanese village of Maroun a-Ras, adjacent to Avivim but on the Lebanese side of the border. ..."

At the time I wrote:

As can be seen in this view, the Avivim area is really the junction between an east-west ridge and a north-south ridge behind which there is a dirt road winding in the direction of the northwest. Israeli control of this elbow of high ground would make it possible to descend on the road running behind the ridge. ... I've drawn a red arrow to represent an obvious threat. If the road behind the Lebanese border is taken by the IDF, Hezbollah resupply from the Syrian border via the Bekaa may become more difficult. It will also complicate efforts to relocate rockets or caches which have been deployed in the area. The downside of having 13,000 rockets is that they become a very heavy thing to move.

Here is the graphic again and it bears looking at now that there are further indications that the IDF is penetrating at this point. If so, this is not an attack up the coastal road in the manner of the earlier campaign in 1982. This is an attack into central Lebanon. Two key moves to watch for now are: a) any thrusts on the Beirut-Damascus highway and b) any moves into the Bekaa. I should like to add that either line of advance will carry the risk of bringing Syria into the fray.

104 Comments:

Blogger wretchard said...

As I mentioned at the time, the Avivim area (with general coordinates 33° 4' 60N 35° 28' 0E as per Falling Rain) was under the observation of UN Oupost 6-52. The Fox News quote above says that "Israeli tanks, bulldozers and personnel carriers that knocked down a border fence and entered the area at about 3 p.m (1200 GMT). The equipment and about 25 soldiers raced past a U.N. outpost ..."

7/22/2006 07:28:00 AM  
Blogger Ted said...

I wonder why they did it in the daytime instead of night. A US force would have attacked at 2:00 am.

7/22/2006 07:33:00 AM  
Blogger allen said...

There are reports that Israel troops have punched a hole in the Blue Line defense works.

Vlad to the left of me
Jacques to my right
Stuck in the middle with Jooos

Who said Jews won't fight on the Shabbat?

7/22/2006 07:34:00 AM  
Blogger wretchard said...

It must have been absolutely clear to the Hez and even the densest observer that the Havivim area fight was to take the ridge and open the way to the road behind. It is exploitation time and given the bad road network and the probable presence of land mines, day is what you want to move mech forces in. The breach is already there.

Remember that the Hez have AT-14 missiles, so the IDF must have dismounts on the ridge and for way up the road to cover the mech. However, the Hez can't mine all of Lebanon. Their defenses have a crust. If the IDF think they've broken through then they'll send in the mech forces past. Now the Hez bunker line is going to be sandwiched between the Israeli border and the mech forces in the road behind. Also they can wave goodbye to their resupply from Syria with the IDF behind them.

7/22/2006 07:40:00 AM  
Blogger Woman Catholic said...

wretchard wrote:

The downside of having 13,000 rockets is that they become a very heavy thing to move.

Not every member of Hezbollah could possibly have been trained to set up and execute a rocket launch. They must have had a few gold teams that went around to the various hidey-holes and got them ready to fly. Now with Israel boots on the ground these gold teams can't move around, at least in the light. Hence the day attack to start things off. If they can neutralize the launch crews, Israel can pick up the idle buried pieces of hardware later at their leisure.

This is an attack into central Lebanon. Two key moves to watch for now are: a) any thrusts on the Beirut-Damascus highway and b) any moves into the Bekaa. I should like to add that either line of advance will carry the risk of bringing Syria into the fray.

Although it is politically tricky for the United States to get directly involved in this business, if Syria shows signs of mobilizing for war, it might be an opportune time for the US forces in northern Iraq to schedule a rather noisy "training evolution" on their back door reminding Assad Jr. that with his airports out of commission he doesn't exactly have an assured logistics chain from his buds in Iran. It's not like you can just smuggle a long-range rocket over Iraqi Kurdistan by camel.

7/22/2006 08:12:00 AM  
Blogger PeterBoston said...

Hizbu'allah is a paramilitary unit in the same sense that the S.S. was a paramilitary unit - they are not listed on the Iranian OOB. HB is probably better trainined, better equipped, and better led than a regular Iranian army division.

HB has had 20 years to fortify the Bekaa. There are likely hundreds of hardened fighting positions, miles of interconnecting tunnels, and inexhaustible caches of food and munitions. HB fighters have probably rehearsed the battle drill for exactly this situation a hundred times. They have the martyrs' courage. They are brimming with confidence from early success.

In short, HB has everything in place to assure its own destruction. IDF firepower, mobility and air superiority will eliminate them to the man - but only if they stay to fight.

The more effecitvely HB fights between the border and the Litani, the more likely the IDF will continue North to roll-up the entire valley, the more likely that Syrian forces will get involved.

The Mullahs have tossed Syria out into the yard like a big meaty bone for the West to gnaw on long enough for them to unfold their nuclear umbrella. Assad has to be a friggin' idiot to not see how badly he's being played. I'll be surprised if the Syrian generals meekly accept their role as Iranian dog meat.

7/22/2006 08:38:00 AM  
Blogger Jamie Irons said...

Hmmm. It's about time for DR to throw a sopping wet blanket over all this early optimism...

;-)

Jamie Irons

7/22/2006 08:45:00 AM  
Blogger NahnCee said...

Sooooo, then - where are Saddam's spirited-out WMD that were supposed to be stashed in Bekaa?

Will Hiz pop them out and use them?

Will the Israeli's discover them?

And if they are not discovered, and there were never any WMD, does anybody care?

7/22/2006 08:45:00 AM  
Blogger Utopia Parkway said...

I don't think that HB controls any WMDs. If present in Leb they are likely under Iranian control. I don't think it suits Iran's or Syria's interest to allow HB to use these weapons by their own decision. Syria and Iran would most likely want to retain control over their use. Israel is certain to respond harshly to any use of WMDs, per the three conjectures and I don't see how Syria and Iran would allow the use of WMDs without their consent.

It is certain that Syria and Iran have chemical weapons and Israel may also have them.

It's not certain that Israel will get as far as Bekaa. They keep talking about limited incursions, FWIW. I think they will spend the next little while clearing out HB from points south of the Litani and destroying all the bunkers so they can't be used again after the cease file.

7/22/2006 09:07:00 AM  
Blogger rufus said...

Ted, the Hez has "night vision," also. Wretchard's right, daytime is better. Of course, the next one could be at night. The hez knows where they're going, just not when.

Nahncee,

Not really. We'll just "assume" that they were sent on to Russia. Too many other things to worry about, right now.

7/22/2006 09:11:00 AM  
Blogger Dave H said...

nahncee said: "And if they are not discovered, and there were never any WMD, does anybody care?"

Probably only leftwing moonbats, whose little hearts wiuld grieve if they were discovered.

Iraq seems to have been the right place to fight from a strategic point of view which I think is why it was originally chosen. It has been somewhat mismanaged tactically with probably hideous effects on troop morale, If Bush had good sense he would mow down some generals and department heads.

If Israel runs short of whatever it takes to dismantle the Bekka valley we need to supply it.

7/22/2006 09:11:00 AM  
Blogger Ilia Capitolina said...

Ted said: I wonder why they did it in the daytime instead of night. A US force would have attacked at 2:00 am.


Israel TV is reporting that the general area is set with dense bush. I would have hoped that the IDF first clear the vegetation by setting it on fire, and then as you suggest, proceed with their operations at night.

Debka and others are reporting on the general sloppiness of the IDF. The two IDF soldiers that were killed come from a Unit that was ill prepared for the combat situation. The Unit was not briefed properly for the mission. It was also too small a fighting force, and when it sustained a casualty the whole operation was halted in an effort to evacuate the wounded. That\'s actually when the 2 kills occurred, as rescue crew encountered a fierce fire fight trying to remove the wounded.

Also, there\'s the issue of the two choppers that collided over Lebanon (wtf?), and the new INF Saar 5 Corvette that sustained a direct hit by a Silkworm missile. Rumor is circulating that the Israeli jamming equipment on the ship wasn\'t even turned on when it was hit. (Again, wtf?!)

All in all, the IDF command deserves very poor marks for this operational performance. Very disappointed.

7/22/2006 09:22:00 AM  
Blogger 2164th said...

Anyone that has actually been in a fight, knows they are easier to start than finish.

7/22/2006 09:32:00 AM  
Blogger rufus said...

Let's be clear about Who we're fighting.

7/22/2006 09:33:00 AM  
Blogger Eggplant said...

I agree with Ralph Peters' latest comments about
Israel's war against Hezbollah. Israel has blundered by relying upon air power alone. Israel should have immediately mobilized their ground infantry and attacked southern Lebanon with overwhelming force. Israel needs to invade all the way north to the Bekaa Valley (bypass Beirut) and exterminate the Hezbollah. Israel has refrained from doing this for fear of sustaining significant IDF casulties. However they have no choice. Hezbollah must be annihilated. Otherwise Israel will receive a never ending rain of Katushya missiles. Air power alone won't work because the bad guys are dug-in deep and immune to conventional bombs (classic Vietcong tactics).

The strategy of building a fence around Israel to keep out the bad guys and then ignoring them has failed. I once believed in this notion but now see it was in error. The Israelis will have to maintain a significant demilitarized zone (killing area) around their territory to keep out Katushyas and terrorists.

7/22/2006 09:36:00 AM  
Blogger PeterBoston said...

The IDF intentions are not very clear. Has the only cross border move been those 30 tracks, or is that the only incursion we know about? This is barely a recon size unit. You'd expect that 10 days of UAV intel would have provided enough data to plan for a more potent force.

Is the IDF baiting a trap, trying to attract HB fighters to what looks like a defeatable target? Is HB disciplined enough to hold their positions?

I'm not getting it. I hope the IAF didn't trash Lebanon for a two mile recon.

7/22/2006 09:43:00 AM  
Blogger Scipio said...

I dreamed kind Jesus fouled the big-gun gears;
And caused a permanent stoppage in all bolts;
And buckled with a smile Mausers and Colts;
And rusted bayonet with His tears.

And there were no more bombs, of ours or Theirs,
Not even an old flint-lock, nor even a pikel.
But God was vexed, and gave all power to Michael;
And when I woke he'd seen to our repairs.

Wilfred Owen(1893-1918)

7/22/2006 09:44:00 AM  
Blogger Scott said...

Good commentary Wretchard --

1) What is your hit count from Lebanon, Middle East Servers and the Iranian Revoluionary Guard (Iranian SS) ?

2) Okinawa, Iwo Jima was the last time methodic deep bunker clearing was done on this large of a geographic scale.

The 50 year old tactics worked then, smoke, small explosives, FIRE. E.G. flame throwers & napalm.

It took weeks and weeks to clear the bunkers, at the cost of Many Allied Americans lives.

a) It doesn't seem that Israel has the weeks and weeks time to clear hundreds perhaps thousands, of fighting bunkers, unless they spend their earth penetrating bomb supplies on these, Unlikely, even if they were willing to spend the soldiers.

b) So Cutting off supplies, in the summer heat, do they run out of water in these fortified areas ?

c) and the Bekka valley, various reports are 1.5 million Hezbollah Lebanese, considering it is the duty of all men & boys to serve the cause, that's a lot of people to disarm.

d) Unless the Nasrallah Terror Inc. leadership group is destroyed in a lucky shot(s) or a lucky find, then all they have to do is hide & survive for a propaganda victory. Without reliable "Occupation Troops" the pukes will live to rearm & fight another day.

With 1/2 to 2/3 of the Lebanese army already Shia that's not a reliable occupation force.

e) the "Old Security Zone" in Southern Lebanon worked because it was largely staffed with Christians who were reliable more than less. Those people were betrayed by the Israeli Pullout and the Hezbollah got even and killed them. They are gone now and based on past experience why would anyone step into this role again to be "at risk" ? After this war winds down, Israel will have to manage & tend it's own security Zone or it will just fight this war again.

7/22/2006 09:49:00 AM  
Blogger rufus said...

Peter, the Princes of Israel are the "Fighter Pilots." And, pilots the world over hate UAVs.

They, like us, probably don't have 1/20th the UAVs they need.

7/22/2006 10:00:00 AM  
Blogger Papa Ray said...

While most of the world wants Israel to go in and kill and destroy their enemies, that is not the goal of Israel. They would be happy if they just pushed their enemy back beyond twenty miles from the border.

Why, because they don't want to lose any more soldiers than they have to.

They have a very limited cadre of "real soldiers". Most of their soldiers are not trained or experienced for front line, hard infantry attacks and the use of armor is limited in the type of defenses the Hiz. has prepared.

In fact, Armor is only going to be good for blowing up IEDs and firing smoke rounds.

Digging enemy out of underground facilites is a bloody tough job even for trained experienced infantry that has an unlimited supply of explosives, gas and other equipment.

In fighting this type of engagement, you can't bypass any emplacements because of the danger of being attacked from the rear and your flanks. So it is going to be a slow process of digging them out.

This is going to take months, not weeks and most results will be obtained from using barbaric methods plus just starving them out.

This war is just like others, like the one we fought from 63 to 68, fighting an invisible enemy who had miles upon miles of underground facilities and could appear and disappear at will. Only when they came out in 68 during TET were we able to kill them by the thousands.

Israel can't win this engagement by limited attacks in the south, but they can get a buffer zone, which at this point is all that they can get without waging total war not only against Hiz but against Syria and Iran.

They won't do that.

Papa Ray
West Texas
USA

7/22/2006 10:13:00 AM  
Blogger rufus said...

The War has been going on for 1400 years. Here are some Pictures from a recent battle.

7/22/2006 10:20:00 AM  
Blogger Buddy Larsen said...

Great link, Rufus. Muslim Brotherhood was organized in 30s Berlin. Re your link, everyone should know these things.

7/22/2006 10:29:00 AM  
Blogger trangbang68 said...

Papa Ray said(and others)"Israel can't win this war by limited tactics"Agreed and neither can we.I wonder if the Bekaa could be made a demonstration project for true Shock and Awe.Maybe use Fuel Air weapons or lots of Daisy Cutters and turn lots of Hezzyville into dust.Let the libs weep,Kofi Amman gag on his oil for food,Syria experience the pucker factor,Mullahland crap or get off the pot.Maybe when the dust clears,the world would be a more pleasant place around the time the pennant races heat up.Just a thought

7/22/2006 10:33:00 AM  
Blogger 2164th said...

If you signal to Islam that you are unwilling to take casualties, you will take casualties at a time and place of their choosing.

7/22/2006 10:53:00 AM  
Blogger al fin said...

War plans never survive contact with the enemy. Who do you think improvises better: Hizbollah, or the IDF?

Instead of Monday-morning quarterbacking like Ralph Peters, pretend you have money invested. Where do you put it? Neither you nor Peters know what's being discussed in war sessions of either side, but do your best.

7/22/2006 11:03:00 AM  
Blogger Woman Catholic said...

2164th said:

If you signal to Islam that you are unwilling to take casualties, you will take casualties at a time and place of their choosing.

Agreed, but we haven't come to the straits that would trigger that sea change in our civilization yet.

For the first two-thirds of the American Civil War the generals on the Union side were unwilling to take casualties (sometimes because they wanted to run for President later themselves), and ol' Abe kept sacking them when they wouldn't engage. Finally we got to 1864, and Grant was in charge of the whole show. Now the Union was getting its can whipped by Lee as usual, but this year Grant did something different. Instead of pulling back after a battle and licking his wounds, Grant started trying to get around Lee's left flank.

In other words, by 1865 the country finally got over its unwillingness to take casualties (which is a noble sentiment in its place) and got down to business.

We had some horrible scenes of carnage like the Wilderness and Cold Harbor, with casualties approaching World War I levels, but it didn't matter. Every time, Grant picked up and moved to his right. Eventually there was a continuous line from Five Forks to City Point, eerily prescient of the Western Front in France fifty years later. Then at Five Forks General Pickett went off and had his fish bake and the rest was, as they say, history.

7/22/2006 11:23:00 AM  
Blogger Mr.Atos said...

The latest strategic analysis from Stratfor is interesting, although in its entirety, not very optimistic. Regardless the outcome, as they see it, Hezbollah (its mentors and surrogates) has achieved its strategic objectives.

STRATFOR 072206: The Israelis have by now thought the problem through. They don't like operational compromises -- preferring highly focused solutions at the center of gravity of an enemy. Hezbollah has tried to deny Israel a center of gravity and may have succeeded, forcing Israel into a compromise position. Repeated assaults against prepared positions are simply not something the Israelis can do, because they cannot afford casualties. They always have preferred mobile encirclement or attacks at the center of gravity of a defensive position. But at this moment, viewed from the outside, this is not an option.

An extended engagement in southern Lebanon is the least likely path, in our opinion. More likely -- and this is a guess -- is a five-part strategy:

1. Insert airmobile and airborne forces north of the Litani to seal the rear of Hezbollah forces in southern Lebanon. Apply air power and engineering forces to reduce the fortifications, and infantry to attack forces not in fortified positions. Bottle them up, and systematically reduce the force with limited exposure to the attackers.

2. Secure roads along the eastern flank for an armored thrust deep into the Bekaa Valley to engage the main Hezbollah force and infrastructure there. This would involve a move from Qiryat Shimona north into the Bekaa, bypassing the Litani to the west, and would probably require sending airmobile and special forces to secure the high ground. It also would leave the right flank exposed to Syria.

3. Use air power and special forces to undermine Hezbollah capabilities in the southern Beirut area. The Israelis would consider a move into this area after roads through southern Lebanon are cleared and Bekaa relatively secured, moving into the area, only if absolutely necessary, on two axes of attack.

4. Having defeated Hezbollah in detail, withdraw under a political settlement shifting defense responsibility to the Lebanese government.

5. Do all of this while the United States is still able to provide top cover against diplomatic initiatives that will create an increasingly difficult international environment.

7/22/2006 12:15:00 PM  
Blogger hdgreene said...

Teresita, I just read "Landscape Turned Red," Stephen Sears account of the Battle Of Antietam. The Union Army found Lee's battle plan (Lee had divided his forces) and McClellan still couldn't beat him.

The War is actually with Iran: Hez and Hamas acting as their "little Satans" with Assad playing the part of Beelzebub in the drama.

In one way, keeping Lebanon cooking may provide cover for a knife fight with Hamas while arranging a coup in Syria that brings that country into the Sunni Arab camp -- and gives Sunni Arabs the last Laugh on uppity Hezbollah. In this way Syria can become the protector of the Sunni Arab areas in Iraq, Assad proving himself untrustworthy in this role.

And the Iran nukes must go.

7/22/2006 12:27:00 PM  
Blogger Ari Tai said...

re: Mr. Peters and traditional war.

We shall see. Perhaps they will pursue a hybrid. e.g. Set up a Khe-Sahn-like base away from the populace but near a major supply line. Insult the Hez' manliness. Gather intel. When attacked, ArcLight. Giap lost his job for sacrificing several tens of thousands of the NVA because he couldn't resist this honeypot, a Westmorland-planned replay with a much different result than Dien-Bien-Phu

7/22/2006 12:50:00 PM  
Blogger Buddy Larsen said...

A.P. Hill's division, arriving at sunset from toward Harper's Ferry (where it had been stuck with the surrendered Union garrison of some 11,000), saved the day for the Army of Northern Virginia.

Lee held the field, but logistics retired him southward next day or two. Union had stopped the "invasion of the north" (Maryland). It was sorta like the Coral Sea, where the tactical loss (for USA in both battles) stopped the aggressor's surge and became a strategic victory.

Lee's army to a man, it is said, still felt undefeated, after Antietam (AKA Sharpsburg), having held the field.

7/22/2006 12:52:00 PM  
Blogger Papa Ray said...

teresita said: Agreed, but we haven't come to the straits that would trigger that sea change in our civilization yet.

Truer words were never spoken. I have been saying about the same thing. It will be after thousands of Americans die in the mainland that we will see that change from PC to BC (brutal correctness).

War is supposed to be brutal, unfair and any other horribly negative adjective you can think of. That's why there must be a clear winner and a clear loser and the loser should be treated like the vanquished and suffer accordingly.

Believe it or not, history shows that wars waged in that manner saved lives in the long run (not just in WWII)

How many innocents have been killed by the Islamic radicals since 1970. I won't ask how many since the 6th century.

The europeans didn't win the crusades, they just quit, leaving what they could not conquer or kill.

We have been doing the same, although in a kinder, gentler way and we are not making any great headway in destroying our enemies.

Papa Ray
West Texas
USA

7/22/2006 12:53:00 PM  
Blogger What is "Occupation" said...

the war in lebanon has some unspoken truths that will change the battle forever for all those that engage it.

1. hezbollah LOST it's "threat" of using rockets and raining down on Israel, now that israel is at war and these missiles are raining down and re-educating all israelis as to the criminality of their enemy, this is actually uniting all israelis to a position that they cannot live under such "un-measurable" threats. But it also up's the anty, Israel is not willing to be "scared" by hezbollah anymore, even if it means war. Once again, Israel is fighting for it's survival, whereas Hezbollah/Iran/Syria/Palestinians are seeking conquest.

2. The arab/islamic world (combined with the vatican, eu, spain, russia etc) all complain how israel can "destroy lebanon" for 2 soldiers, the truth is far better.

An object lesson in deterance is being taught.

Israel has now re-instated the 614th mitzvah "never again" this means, that no matter how "small" the murder is (as arafat when he was coming under pressure to stop the sniper attacks acted to the world he was stopping the shooting attacks, but at the same time told his evil vermon, he wanted to see one israeli STABBED every couple of days, because they (the israelis) would not or could not start a war over a kniving.

so the question should be posed to the world:

What has hezbollah gained from killing 8 and kidnapping 2 israelis?

answer: 400 lebanese killed 2000 wounded, 3 billion in infrastructed destroyed, and set back an arab country 15 yrs.

from my point of view, it's a down payment.. more to come

this is a LESSON the arab world WILL learn..

7/22/2006 12:54:00 PM  
Blogger PeterBoston said...

papa ray

It doesn't matter if the IDF does it pretty or if the IDF does it ugly, but if they do not do it at all: engage and destroy HB in place and in detail this operation will be a humiliating defeat for Israel. A defeat that will only encourage more rockets and more Islamist adventures.

I shudder to think of the fallout.

7/22/2006 01:02:00 PM  
Blogger desert rat said...

PB,
Such gloom and doom.
A pessimistic view point
Take some iron pills

Reality has invaded your echo chamber, or you finally see the trend line.

Hoping the good guys change course only goes so far before you realize on D+11 the Israeli mean what they've said about pipoint incursions.

7/22/2006 01:21:00 PM  
Blogger Habu_3 said...

Wretchard said..

Something that warmed my heart.

"I should like to add that either line of advance will carry the risk of bringing Syria into the fray."

I can only hope that they come into the fray.
Then the USA can "develop" an incident (if one doesn't naturally develop) where Syrian aggression forces us to defend ourselves.

I would suggest using the Maddox and the Turner Joy in a shadow play where they are assaulted by high speed sanpans armed with below waterline punji stakes.

Then, in a proportional response, we nuke Damascus. Very reasonalble all things considered.

Then Hollywood could produce a "Nuke Aid" concert and Barbra could sing for the children.
I'm verklempt, talk among yourselves.

7/22/2006 01:22:00 PM  
Blogger PeterBoston said...

This is a Starwars Moment in the WOT.

Hizbu'allah puts a face on what we're fighting. They wear camouflage uniforms, they have a flag, they march in formation, they have a pictorial history. There are no abstractions here.

Breaking things in Lebanon doesn't get it. The IDF must, must engage Hizbu'allah eyeball to eyeball and cut them down.

If Olmert doesn't have the cookies to do this then somebody better grab him by the throat and toss him down a well. A moment's lack of courage now will do more harm to Israel then 60 years of combat with Arab armies ever did.

7/22/2006 01:24:00 PM  
Blogger whit said...

Rufus, 10:20
From your link, fourth picture down, Hezbollah saluting.

Is that al-Sadr seated on front row?

7/22/2006 01:35:00 PM  
Blogger Buddy Larsen said...

Debka reports that Syrian pilots are sitting in their cockpits.

Considering the air-to-air score the last time they tangled with the IAF (either 80 to 0 or 100 to 0 depending on who says), they could save save a lot of time & trouble by simply wandering off into the desert, spreading out their parachutes on the sand, and taking a nice nap until the war's over.

7/22/2006 01:47:00 PM  
Blogger Pyrthroes said...

Approbation and testimonial plaudits to Wretchard of the Belmont Club! Your postings combine the best of detailed, knowledgeable commentary with forthright exposition of context and perspective.

A "virtuous circle" seems at work: The more and better participants Belmont Club attracts, the more the rest of us bob in their wake like bumboats astern the Golden Hind. Rare combination of facts and insight... thank you.

7/22/2006 01:57:00 PM  
Blogger allen said...

wretchard,

Will the Israelis hold the positions attained over the Blue Line?

Will the Israelis substantially exploit the breach in the Blue Line?

Can Hezbollah mount a professional counterattack, proving itself a competent military force?

If Hezbollah does counterattack, can it bring to bear sufficient artillery to soften up the Israelis?

7/22/2006 02:01:00 PM  
Blogger allen said...

buddy larsen; 1:47 PM

By no stretch of even Arab propaganda are Syrian pilots of the Kamakazi model. What must be going through the minds of the poor devils?

7/22/2006 02:04:00 PM  
Blogger desert rat said...

"Israel wil cpntrol those villages with fire power, not occupation"
per FOX

Not clear and hold, it's sweep then jeep, & watch from the Israeli side of the line

7/22/2006 02:08:00 PM  
Blogger RWE said...

In Korea, dealing with similar mountainous roads, the USAF B-26 units found that interdicting trucks was a difficult task at night.

So they flew down the roads at night in a C-47 and kicked out boxes of roofing nails.

The next morning they easily shot up dozens of stalled trucks sitting there with flat tires.

Wonder if that would work again?

7/22/2006 02:23:00 PM  
Blogger 2164th said...

"Schlock and Jaw" will impress the jihadis.

7/22/2006 02:25:00 PM  
Blogger desert rat said...

PB
As soon as you understand the difference between Events and Outcomes, it'll all be come clear.

7/22/2006 02:26:00 PM  
Blogger leaddog2 said...

Has anyone seen any information about Syria's chemical weapons being moved to help Hizbollah? It seems that it is NOT a logistical re-supply possibility for Southern Lebanon. Who on this side knows what is in the tunnels now?

7/22/2006 02:28:00 PM  
Blogger wretchard said...

Mr. Atos,

I'll bend my three comment rule to note that Stratfor's analysis has assumptions which would conventionally drive any analysis, including my own in this post. I will add a couple of observations more.

Enveloping the Hez in Southern Lebanon and pinning them against the Syria frontier also keeps them from exercising their customary power in the rest of Lebanon. This will empower the anti-Hezbollah factions. But the key to doing this is pinning down the Hez. It also has the virtue of blocking Syria out of Lebanon.

With Syria and the Hez tied up by the IDF their natural enemies in Lebanese polity will be emboldened. Nasrallah can't really strut around so much after he's cut off from his main force.

One unappreciated factor here is that this incursion is ironically the battle for the existence of Lebanon, but not in the way most would think. The recent display of Hezbollah firepower makes it clear that the Hez would have sooner or later become the Lebanese state. They would have taken it over. The IDF incursion makes it possible, ironically, for a consocional Lebanon to exist.

7/22/2006 02:30:00 PM  
Blogger allen said...

buddy larsen,

Having searched, I find no reports of Hezbollah having launched a barrage of rockets, artillery, or mortar fire against the Israeli forces now in Lebanon. Since this is precisely the behavior one would expect from a professional military organization, this speaks volumes of the power and danger of Arab propaganda.

Not only has Hezbollah failed to field its alleged massive rocket stash against the exposed vulnerable Israel infantry in Lebanon, it has been conspicuous only by the absence of a credible counterattack.

While admittedly a presumption, when the Israelis make a move en mass, Hezbollah will prove itself no more valiant than its Arab predecessors, it will break in route.

Oh, they ran through the brambles
And they ran through the bushes
And they ran through the briars where the rabbits wouldn’t go
They ran so fast that the hounds couldn’t catch ‘em
There wasn’t nigh as many as there was awhile ago

By the way, buddy, Hey!

7/22/2006 02:30:00 PM  
Blogger RWE said...

Allen: As for Hezbolah being competant military force, note that the Katuskya rocket was developed by the USSR in WWII as a barrage weapon. We used similar weapons in WWII, both tank and ship mounted (and in the fact "highly innovative" Soviet weapons largely were made in the USA and mounted on Dodge trucks). This was intended to augment artillery during a focused assault, but Hezbolah has used them one or two at a time - in other words in a markedly militarily ineffective manner. They are more like the V-1's and V-2's of WWII; all but useless but perhaps personally satisfying in the same manner as fireworks.

Now, the key question: was this an attempt to lure the IDF into a trap, or is tactical incompetance but designed to achieve Strategic PR results (ala Tet and 9/11/01), is it the terrorist equivalent of knocking over mailboxes on Saturday night, is it merely desigend to keep the $150M a month coming from Iran,..... or is it the best they can do?

7/22/2006 02:43:00 PM  
Blogger desert rat said...

The enemy advances, we withdraw
the enemy withdraws, we advance

You are ascribing "conventional" standards to HB, then judge them lacking.

The Israeli report that there are "only" 1,000 trained HB combatants and that 100 or more have been killed.

The estimate of HB strength seems light to me, but hey, even so the HB have taken some casualties. If as our host relates yhe IDF expands behing the fortified line, the HG will "fade away" to fight another day.

The air assualt option, into a hail of SAM 7s, could be nasty.
aprox 350 manpads took down over 250 Soviet aircraft in Afghanistan, back in the day.

patience, patience.
If the object is to kill IDF troopers, copters are better than fast movers.
Israel has the clock, HB has the time.

7/22/2006 02:43:00 PM  
Blogger rufus said...

Like I said, I kinda like the way the Israeli's are doing it, so far. We're rushing some bunker-busters over there, right now (too bad the Israeli's cancelled the order early in the year.) Once the groups on the ground have located the bunkers, they will use these bunker-busters to take them out.

Then, the bulk of the force will fall back, but when the Hez come sliding back into the area, the SF that have been left behind will spot the artillery fire to ruin their night. The next day the main force will show up somewhere else, and ...rinse, repeat.

I assumed that both of those tanks were taken out by shaped IED's, but now I'm thinking it might have been, in one or both cases, advanced anti-tank rockets. A large number of these in the hands of motivated fanatics with a modicum of training and intelligence would be any army's worst night-mare.

Whether Israel will go as far as we all think they should is an "unknowable." For some reason, I'm doubting they will go into the Bekaa. I'm really not good at this sort of thing, which means They probably will.

Whether they do, or not, there's no way anyone but the nuttiest of the nutty will be able to consider this a Hesbollah victory.

7/22/2006 02:45:00 PM  
Blogger Habu_3 said...

Papa Ray 12:53

Amen..You managed to get the message out that I've tried to convey. You did it with clarity and historical accuracy. Thank you.

Get it done. Hurray for West Texas, even though I prefer my Montana land.
Best regards, Habu3

______________________________

Rufus, did you hear from PossumTater? He sent you a note last night about his date and us all do'in some gambl'in in Tunica.
Anyway, He's out now look'in like a big ole rat, but I know he's been talk'in about his new online compadre. Animal control tried to arrest him for own'in a book, but he told 'em he was taken it to the two holer..got him off with a warning agin read'in any of it.

7/22/2006 02:46:00 PM  
Blogger PeterBoston said...

It's because I do understand the difference between Events and Outcomes that I feel sick and confused at the moment.

Lack of courage in Israel's political leadership will only transfer risk from those most prepared to accept it to those least prepared.

Perhaps I'm wrong and just impatient but the only signals I see are screaming weakness and defeat. Israel has survived these three generations from sheer force of will, and because every Israeli could justly feel that he or she was shaping history and becoming part of it.

Failure to confront Hizbu'allh now is the end of history for Israel.

7/22/2006 02:50:00 PM  
Blogger Buddy Larsen said...

Kiryat Shmona on fire, again, shows FoxNews just now.

That little town gets plastered regularly. I recall the headlines from all the way back to my callow youth during the Six Day War, "Kiryat Shmona Under Fire".

It was just a little Kibbutz back then, barely hanging onto the hillside, PLO or whatever shooting it up at will, whenever the fancy struck.

On fire or not, it's still there, tho. Rather remarkable, really.

7/22/2006 02:52:00 PM  
Blogger desert rat said...

Moonbats & jihadist recruits are not the nuttiest of the nutty?

The HB political wing is managing the Social Serices for the 500,000 refugees. Not the UN, Italy, France or Russia.
Hezbollah

As the conflict proceeds, more refugees, more HB influence within it's bloc, growing larger as the refugee population grows.

Only a portion of HB's political power growa out of the barrel of it's guns.

7/22/2006 02:55:00 PM  
Blogger rufus said...

Whit,

They all look the ome to me.

I'll bet it is hard to fly one of those old migs with one hand on the "eject" handle.

7/22/2006 02:56:00 PM  
Blogger rufus said...

Yeah, Habu, some little old possumtitty favors him, and he runs around the whole next day braggin about it. He better hope she don't have no older brothers, or cousins hearin him.

About that gamblin thing, I don't know; all them possumtaters cheat, and them eyes in the skies usually gets'em, then everybody spends the night in jail; of course that's better than the old days when you got your butts whipped and your knuckles cracked good.

Then they usually gets drunk, and starts a fight, then slip over behind the bar and steal cigarettes and booze while your gettin your butt whupped agin. Then when your wife bail you out and you finally lay down on the couch and pass out, he's sneakin in your bedroom and tellin your woman how it was all your fault for startin it, and how she sure looks nice in that little nightie thing, and the next thing you know you're payin child support for some little thing that looks a lot like a little possumtater.

Damn, they're fun. Give me call when you all are ready to gol

7/22/2006 03:12:00 PM  
Blogger Buddy Larsen said...

Right, rat, Lebanon will probably be hostile to Israel because of this war. That's a shame, but I wonder if there's a soul on earth who'll be able to tell any functional difference between the new and the old.

meanwhile Saudi and Egyptian clerics are issuing fatwas against Hez for their arrogance and hostility.

So, Israel loses what it never had, and gains what it never had.

As a softener, Achmadinejad at least got a Russian re-think on the UN agreement-in-principle. Must want to keep the Kornet market open awhile longer.

ok, I'm way over, apologies, and out--
(hey, Allen--back atcha!)

7/22/2006 03:16:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Larsen:
'Rat's thinking of running up in Washington against that gal that clued us in on why Osama was such a hit with the people:
Schools, bridges, wieners, etc.
You know the schtick.
---
July 22nd, 2006
Beezer’s CNN Interview
Beezer was recently interviewed by CNN. You can watch the interview here and then read his reaction to the final product.
... I wonder if the Israeli army is reading this blog and homing in on the signal.

If you’d like to compare it to the uncut version, you can watch Beezer’s own taping of it , as he set up his video camera and captured the whole thing just in case.

CNN
Lebanon Blogger
Lebanon resident gives uncut look into conflict in online blog. CNN's Randi Kaye reports. (July 22)

7/22/2006 03:23:00 PM  
Blogger Jaimo said...

Wretchard, another fascinating post, with great commentary by one and all!

Given that Hez had/has the initiative to this point, which side is the most creative, adaptive, flexible?

I have all along assumed Israel to be "on the clock" both at home & in the court of World Opinion.
What if Israel decides "!#@$%!! the clock" this is for our survival? New rules! Based on "performances" so far, I'd say they need them! The Israeli people are by and large united in this. Gives the Govt & Military breathing room to adjust.

Hez has been masterful in "setting the battlefield", seizing the initiative. They have been "gaming" the Israelis for years, defeating their Tech, breaking into their secure comms, stealing the playbook to predict responses.

What if the Israelis have "noticed" this? Style points have so far been awarded genorously to Hez. Style points don't win real wars. Style wins world opinion & political battles.
IF Israel can overcome mistakes in doctrine & assumptions, can adapt as they have time & time again AND they have US and other Players "backing" to fight THEIR fight, can Hez adapt to completely new Israeli thinking?

Can the Israelis NOT fight the war that Hez has prepared for, rehearsed and demanded for 10-20 years and instead "Sun Tzu" & "Musashi" 'em into losing their Hez cool? Make HEZ fight to the Israeli strengths (which granted have yet to be fully developed) instead if the Israelis getting sucked into the quagmire of Hez's design??

Interesting times...

7/22/2006 03:25:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

re:
Akmenawhojit -
Maybe Metamucil might improve him:
It's a softener too.

7/22/2006 03:28:00 PM  
Blogger 2164th said...

A coalition, put together by the Israeli bombing of Lebanon, as a counterweight against the Shi'a is a fantasy. The Shi'a is the largest Lebanese community, thought in 1990 to be about 35% of the population. Since then, their numbers have increased even more, while other communities, especially the Christians has decreased due to emigration. Some sources indicate the Shi'a may be close to 50% of the population. The recent new arrival of Christian Lebanese is hardly going to be expanded by Lebanon being enveloped in another war. Hezbollah, if not totally destroyed, will come out stronger as the scales will be tipped in their direction by a further outflow of other groups. How do you create a coalition by bombing a country's infrastructure? Think that would work in California?

IMO Israel seems not to have the capacity to finish this job. The US, at this early stage, emergency shipping Israel, High intensity explosives is a very bad sign. How is this possible? To support an already heavily criticized air campaign and expect cooperation from the country you are bombing can only come from a brain-dead and tone deaf administration.

Some earlier comments refer to the fact that Israel cannot take many casualties with a ground war. Why Not? Who is supposed to take them? If Israel has started something it cannot finish with its own armaments, manpower and money what are they doing? If Israel cannot complete this optional war with a resounding victory then there should be a full court press to come up with a political solution.

7/22/2006 03:28:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Jaimo said...
The Israelis were SHOCKED by the breakin/kidnapping:
That had historically been THEIR baliwick.
Older folks who had been through 1, 2 or more wars grumbled about "kids these days" and whether they were up to the task, etc.
Obviously, some planning and training and procurement wasn't, but there'll be hell to pay by those with whom the younger folk will be tested.

7/22/2006 03:35:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Just what the Israelis need:
Another political solution.
Bring in Kofi!
(A Humanitarian Disaster if ever there was one.)

7/22/2006 03:38:00 PM  
Blogger Buddy Larsen said...

Doug, that be Patty Murray. One of my favoreet congerzwymyn.

2164, no, I didn't mean the Gulf Arabs were afixin to enlist in the IDF. I wuz merely sayin, Israel can't lose Lebanon as a neutral because de-facto she never had it, while picking up the Gulf Arabs--the clerics no less--as a neutral is a politcal gain she never had. Fatwas is serious bidness you know.

ok, this is the 3rd time I've said I'm way over limit & out. The first 2 were merely preparation, I guess. No damn discipline, dad was right. Yes, so were all those parole officers.

7/22/2006 03:46:00 PM  
Blogger desert rat said...

The Crusaders are gettin their horses saddled, weapons oiled.

Return to the Levant for the Romans and the Franks, I think it's the first time for the Cossacks.

Read in a NYTimes piece that the Israeli reference 6,000 HB "fighters? I have read both 1,000 and now 6,000. Perhaps a cadre and the troops. Or perhaps no one really knows fer sure.

7/22/2006 03:53:00 PM  
Blogger Jamie Irons said...

Allen,

To my recollection the song went:

Oh, they ran through the brambles
And they ran through the bushes
And they ran through the briars where the rabbits wouldn’t go
They ran so fast that the hounds couldn’t catch ‘em
On down the Mississippi to the Gulf of Mexico!


;-)

Rufus and Habu:

The colloquy between Possumtater and his companions (?avatars?) is hilarious! (At least to this redneck.)

;-)

Jamie Irons

7/22/2006 03:59:00 PM  
Blogger rich said...

Israeli ground troops are necessary to force Hezbollah to deploy and reveal themselves.

If Hezbollah deploys, Israeli air and artillery will be more effective.

It appears that the Israeli ground troops will not have a secure rear or flank areas as they advance because of Hezbollah hiding holes and hidden bunkers. Resupply will be an issue.

Does Israel have flame throwing tanks? Or napalm bombs? Or are they out of fashion today?

7/22/2006 04:01:00 PM  
Blogger Buddy Larsen said...

I'm not me, just an undewr-limit passerby using this here computer, but the report I heard (CNBC or Fox)--said, in-country, about 30,000 support (10,000 of 'em combat reserve), and 1,000-2,000 each of front-line regulars and special ops--terrorists. Regulars in the bunkers, terrorists on call in Beirut.

7/22/2006 04:04:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

We're upgrading to rubber bullets for our next "war."
A Tap in the Tummy.
An ACLU Lawyer at HQ.
Three squares.
Soon you'll be out and fit as a fiddle.
Just don't spend all that settlement money on the first Raisin you run into.

7/22/2006 04:05:00 PM  
Blogger rufus said...

Jaime, that's the 1st verse, Allen's is the 2nd verse. Trust me, I'm an expurt.

7/22/2006 04:13:00 PM  
Blogger skipsailing said...

The discussion here is interesting in that no one has a clear idea about IDF plans.

If this august group cannot achieve concensus on the answer to that very important question, I have to wonder what the Hezbullah war councils are like.

It seems to me that the IDF has a lot of options and makes the HB position more difficult.

I agree that thus far HB has shown little ability to hold ground. Is this an attempt to bait a trap or simply an acknowledgement of their limits?

I often wonder if this all the Islamic madmen actually have. I wonder if this is it: terror, oil prices or nukes.

If terror ceases to function and we can offset an oil price shock (so far so good) the only option left is Iran's dream.

Is this radical Islam's best shot?

7/22/2006 04:14:00 PM  
Blogger whit said...

Have heard both Syria and Kofi calm for a "cessation of hostilities" rather than a cease-fire. Kofi says that the UN can deliver humanitarian during the timeout. He also said that the UN position is that the UN will assist Lebanon in strengthening itself so that it can disarm Hezbollah.

Maybe he's hoping that Israel will weaken them to the point that the Lebanese Government can finish them off.

Do you think?

7/22/2006 04:21:00 PM  
Blogger rufus said...

Sure Skip, if it goes "existential," they've got NO Shot..

7/22/2006 04:24:00 PM  
Blogger rufus said...

Just talk Whit, ain't gonna happen. Not until there's a NATO-Type force on the border.

7/22/2006 04:27:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Haven't read all yet, but regarding UAV's and recon quality, etc.
Yoni was reporting troops on the ground at least a week ago.

7/22/2006 04:33:00 PM  
Blogger allen said...

jamie irons; 3:59 PM

___late night (early morning)

___Schadenfreude

___early morning

___Schadenfreude

___too little caffeine

___Schadenfreude

___20 - 30 years since last exposure

___Schadenfreude

I beg pardon for any error.

___Schadenfreude

I have issues.


___

7/22/2006 04:53:00 PM  
Blogger allen said...

buddy larsen,

This two post rule is making feel almost as guilty as a kid trying to sneak into the drive-in on Saturday night, but not as guilty as drinking "commandeered" beer behind the barn.

7/22/2006 04:56:00 PM  
Blogger 2164th said...

Just one question Allen. Were you in the trunk or driving?

7/22/2006 05:03:00 PM  
Blogger rufus said...

I NEVER felt guilty drinking beer.

7/22/2006 05:07:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Rufus, 5:07 PM,
Well, not after the First One.
---
More background:
75% of the Generals involved meeting with Olmert 2 wks ago were Air Force.
The only way Olmert would cave is if he is willing to give up his political career, which would be over, at least at this level.

His wife and daughter are members of
"Wymin in Black"
which I haven't checked out, but evidently is a peace at any price bunch!
Many Israelis have already learned about thoughtless spending via the RANDOM incoming rockets.
Must be some interesting dinners in THAT household!

7/22/2006 05:20:00 PM  
Blogger allen said...

Take a look at a picture on Drudge of two Israeli soldiers praying beside their self-propelled gun. These men will be the face of Israel in another generation, demographic trends continuing.

If the issues of the ME seem intractable now, just what.

7/22/2006 05:26:00 PM  
Blogger allen said...

2164th; 5:03 PM

Assuming a statute of limitations, which time?

7/22/2006 05:27:00 PM  
Blogger allen said...

correct: "just wait"

7/22/2006 05:29:00 PM  
Blogger Peter UK said...

Not read all the comments,but thsi is what happened in the ambush of the Israeli soldiers

7/22/2006 05:52:00 PM  
Blogger Habu_3 said...

Now Mr. Wretchard speaks for himself but allow me to paraphrase an answer he gave to my request the night of the day when the "two rule posting" was passed to the troops.
I asked him, if he would take a second look at the new guidelines. I told him I was an old man ,58, and if I was lucky I might have a score left on my calendar and that two posts was giv'in me angina.

His reponse was that (not a direct quote and I've had a steak and a couple of merlots) was that it was a kinda loose guideline. Kinda like don't do "War and Peace" on a post but an abbreviated Readers digest..thats abbreviated Readers digest might be acceptable..he's a fine man and after this next merlot I'm nominating him for a Nobel prize in the new catagory ..MasterBlogger.

7/22/2006 06:01:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

And I nominate Habu the
Merlin Merlot Master Wizard.

7/22/2006 06:10:00 PM  
Blogger Buddy Larsen said...

habu is the nick for the SR-71, the thing that flies Mach Unbelievable @ Unbelievable feet altitude, from the Skunk Works--and I believe now out of service--?

7/22/2006 06:28:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

If so, Tony will know the date, time, and place of the last flight.
---
Did you get to see habu's short version of his dad's illustrious career back in June when he passed?
If it won't come up in a search, I still have it.

7/22/2006 06:53:00 PM  
Blogger The Real Sporer said...

I think we need to do a lot more discussing of the WW3 nature of this conflict, and not in a bad way. Does not history show that sometimes total war is necessary to end conflict? I think WW2 pretty conclusively establishes that, as do the Napoleanic Wars, etc...

For this latest global conflict to end we need total victory over Islamic fascism/fantacism. Israel is the front line warrior and we need to "back their play" for a massive ground operation to destroy the Hezbollah military infrastructure.

7/22/2006 06:57:00 PM  
Blogger Buddy Larsen said...

No, Doug--I'll look for it--must be good.

Agree, sporer--back their play all the way.

7/22/2006 07:11:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

6:57 PM
I think we ought to take out Baby's airport.
As Teresita points out, it's a little more difficult bringing in larger rockets by other means.
Certainly have a REASON: wtf should Baby get to supply them with any MORE?
But then, I thought Baby deserved some attention for maintaing a sanctuary wrt our efforts in Iraq.

7/22/2006 07:31:00 PM  
Blogger NahnCee said...

Forgive me while I continue to obsess about this whole Bekaa Valley/WMD issue. Nasrallah is quoted as saying, "...that his combatants were eager to fight, and vowed to surprise Israel on land, 'just like we surprised you at sea.'"

Folks here have also commented on the lack of fight-back by Hiz now that Israel is physically pushing into Lebanon.

I wish someone would explain to me exactly why it could not be that Israel is being lured into a dead-end trap in Bekaa, where the Hizbollah "surprise" of whatever Weapons of Mass Destruction Saddam was up to are thrown at them. If they are chemical, then undoubtedly lots of Lebanese will also be killed. If they are something else, then lots of Muslims will be "martyr'd" alongside the fried Jews.

And wouldn't that be a HUGE propaganda win for Hizbollah, no matter what the outcome?

7/22/2006 08:11:00 PM  
Blogger Buddy Larsen said...

It would be the end of the jihad as we know it--that's for sure.

7/22/2006 08:26:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

re, habu's dad:
Buddy, I posted it here.
Hope you don't mind, Habu, if so I'll delete.

7/22/2006 08:31:00 PM  
Blogger Khalid said...

http://fromisraeltolebanon.com/

7/22/2006 09:16:00 PM  
Blogger Buddy Larsen said...

Thanks, Doug--I saved it to my computer. it is a wonderful tribute--on a fast read. Will go over it better later. Boyington--what a story--what a life--

7/23/2006 08:51:00 AM  
Blogger Buddy Larsen said...

Khalid, what is there to say? Evidently the world will have a steady stream of dead children, either inside Israel forever, or inside Lebanon for a short while.

Who makes this determination?

Hezbollah, that's who.

Is your purpose to send the killing back into Israel alone, as it always has been except when Israel periodically tries to put it ALL to a stop?

Is it that inside Israel is in your view where all the killing always belongs?

7/23/2006 09:03:00 AM  
Blogger allen said...

khalid, 9:16 PM

Those are some horrific pictures, aren’t they? I’m reminded of a poor Vietnamese girl, naked and horribly burned by napalm.

Question, khalid: Is Hezbollah a terrorist organization?

7/23/2006 09:48:00 AM  
Blogger R2K said...

I dont know why they want this complication. What are they going to get by making the conflict more messy?

7/23/2006 10:11:00 AM  
Blogger desert rat said...

alex,
more dead
more turmoil
more terror

Uncle Newt is talking about making this a "Short War" on FOX

He wants US to start by actually naming the Enemies,
how paleo

7/23/2006 10:24:00 AM  
Blogger Armagnac Esq. said...

484 words and not one use of the accurate "invasion".

Not sure if I prefer the extraordinary understatement of "moved into" or the disturbing connotations of sexual violence brought on by "penetrating".

Spade referred to as teaspoon. Reprisals referred to as self defence.

Follows, I suppose.

7/23/2006 11:56:00 PM  
Blogger Armagnac Esq. said...

"Is Hezbollah a terrorist organization? "

Yes, and if you could kill the whole bunch of them tomorrow without wiping out 5 times as many civilians this contrarian lefty would support you.

7/23/2006 11:57:00 PM  
Blogger Buddy Larsen said...

armaniac, please read Spengler, another contrarian lefty, here @ Asia Times (a publication no friend of USA or Israel).

He describes the totality of the Hez project in southern Lebanon. The line between the Hez and the Lebanese Shia population does not exist, either psychologically, functionally, economically, or topographically.

Try to think this through in terms of things that have actually happened historically, and if you cannot endure dead Lebanese Shia, then prepare to endure dead Israeli Jews. And eventually many, many dead everythings all over everywhere.

I'm afraid your position on the moral fence, lofty though it appears and good though it may feel, is in truth no longer tenable within the realm of reality (though as a textual fantasy it will no doubt continue to live on as a sort of ideological vampire, forever in need of more and more living victims to feed on).

Please investigate your thinking.

7/24/2006 09:06:00 AM  

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