Saturday, July 22, 2006

The Path of the IDF

Ynet News has good coverage of the ground activity at Maroun al-Ras.

Head of the Galilee Division, Brig. Gen. Gal Hirsch, met with journalists Saturday to explain the day's operations in Southern Lebanon. ... "We took over wide shoulders of land in Yarun and Avivim, where terrorists had been launching missiles at Safed, Tiberias, Carmiel, Meron and other areas," said Hirsch, explaining the significance of the takeover. "We took over the Jaladin ridge and Maroun al-Ras, where there was short-range fighting, and additional joint fighting with forces from the engineer corps. We brought bulldozers into the territory and destroyed Hizbullah outposts along the border."

The IDF also issued a warning to inhabitants of towns in southern Lebanon to evacuate in anticipation of further Israeli operations. The towns were ennumerated, and that lets us plot the towns on the map.


The 13 villages being asked to relocate are: Aitrun, Atiri, Barashit, Beit Yahoun,Bint Jubayl, Bleida, Einata, Hadatiya, Hirbat Salim, Kontin, Kharsat a-Talab, Majal Salim, Shakra, and Yarun. In messages relayed to residents of these towns, via both Arabic news agencies and local sources, the residents were informed that anyone not following the instructions to relocate to the north is endangering his life and the life of his family. The message also stated that Hizbullah tends to use civilians as 'human shields'.

Falling Rain provided an invaluable guide to finding these towns on the map. Some, perhaps due to variations in spelling, could not be located. But those that could are at the following coordinates.

Place Coordinates
Aitrun 33° 6' 56N 35° 28' 20E
Atiri 33° 8' 23N 35° 24' 8E
Barashit 33° 10' 37N 35° 26' 45E
Beit Yahoun 33° 10' 20N 35° 25' 20E
Bint Jubayl 33° 7' 13N 35° 25' 57E
Bleida 33° 8' 23N 35° 31' 0E
Einata ?
Hadatiya ?
Hirbat Salim ?
Kontin ?
Kharsat a-Talab ?
Majal Salim 33° 13' 15N 35° 28' 0E
Shakra ?
Yarun 33° 4' 52N 35° 25' 21E

 

The map, looking north from the Israeli border is shown below. The towns which the IDF wants evacuated are marked with little flags. A pushpin marks the point where the Litani River suddenly turns West from its North-South course out of the Bekaa. Readers are invited to examine the ground in Google Earth or any similar program. Two things should be observed. First, none of the villages which the IDF wants evacuated are beyond the Litani. Second, the villages are all in central and eastern Lebanon.

 

 

Commentary

In the previous post, Mr. Atos quoted a snippet from a Stratfor report in comments. Tigerhawk has the full text and analysis.

STRATFOR 072206: The Israelis have by now thought the problem through. They don't like operational compromises -- preferring highly focused solutions at the center of gravity of an enemy. Hezbollah has tried to deny Israel a center of gravity and may have succeeded, forcing Israel into a compromise position. Repeated assaults against prepared positions are simply not something the Israelis can do, because they cannot afford casualties. They always have preferred mobile encirclement or attacks at the center of gravity of a defensive position. But at this moment, viewed from the outside, this is not an option. An extended engagement in southern Lebanon is the least likely path, in our opinion. More likely -- and this is a guess -- is a five-part strategy:

1. Insert airmobile and airborne forces north of the Litani to seal the rear of Hezbollah forces in southern Lebanon. Apply air power and engineering forces to reduce the fortifications, and infantry to attack forces not in fortified positions. Bottle them up, and systematically reduce the force with limited exposure to the attackers.

2. Secure roads along the eastern flank for an armored thrust deep into the Bekaa Valley to engage the main Hezbollah force and infrastructure there. This would involve a move from Qiryat Shimona north into the Bekaa, bypassing the Litani to the west, and would probably require sending airmobile and special forces to secure the high ground. It also would leave the right flank exposed to Syria.

3. Use air power and special forces to undermine Hezbollah capabilities in the southern Beirut area. The Israelis would consider a move into this area after roads through southern Lebanon are cleared and Bekaa relatively secured, moving into the area, only if absolutely necessary, on two axes of attack.

4. Having defeated Hezbollah in detail, withdraw under a political settlement shifting defense responsibility to the Lebanese government.

5. Do all of this while the United States is still able to provide top cover against diplomatic initiatives that will create an increasingly difficult international environment.

In response to Mr. Atos, I noted that operations in Hezbollah would also have an effect on Lebanese internal politics. It would change the balance of Lebanese internal power.

Enveloping the Hez in Southern Lebanon and pinning them against the Syria frontier also keeps them from exercising their customary power in the rest of Lebanon. This will empower the anti-Hezbollah factions. But the key to doing this is pinning down the Hez. It also has the virtue of blocking Syria out of Lebanon. With Syria and the Hez tied up by the IDF their natural enemies in Lebanese polity will be emboldened. Nasrallah can't really strut around so much after he's cut off from his main force. One unappreciated factor here is that this incursion is ironically the battle for the existence of Lebanon, but not in the way most would think. The recent display of Hezbollah firepower makes it clear that the Hez would have sooner or later become the Lebanese state. They would have taken it over. The IDF incursion makes it possible, ironically, for a consocional Lebanon to exist.

354 Comments:

Blogger TmjUtah said...

Chester had a brainstorming session a few days ago on his thread "Isreal's Bek'ka Dilemma. I can't seem to format a short link here, but the URL is h ttp:// www. the advenutres of chester .com (without all the spaces, of course)

My comment suggested what may be happening, in my humble opinion.

Israel has mobilized to the extent that this isn't going to be a "compromise" solution, at least as far as Hezbollah is concerned.

And they will have option outside Lebanon.

7/22/2006 04:27:00 PM  
Blogger Red River said...

This is intricate, set-piece fighting and Isreal is going to take it slow and careful using terrain, overmatch and firepower to grind Hezbollah down.

Armor/Infantry contests in open terrain are all about the terrain and nothing else.

Isreal has the edge because it controls the skies and has enormous overmatch.

There is a very interesting opportunity here for Isreal, but I doubt if they will pursue it.

7/22/2006 04:27:00 PM  
Blogger Woman Catholic said...

wretchard wrote:

One unappreciated factor here is that this incursion is ironically the battle for the existence of Lebanon, but not in the way most would think. The recent display of Hezbollah firepower makes it clear that the Hez would have sooner or later become the Lebanese state. They would have taken it over.

Yet if Hizbollah actually ran the state of Lebanon and were shooting rockets and kidnapping Jews, the IDF wouldn't be doing any of this pussyfooting around with foes that eschew uniforms and hide behind human shields, dropping leaflets and trying to figure out who's in this militia or that. They would just drive to Beirut, breaking everything that got in the way.

7/22/2006 04:29:00 PM  
Blogger wretchard said...

I think the situation also creates certain diplomatic opportunities. Hezbollah has two objectives it must defend. The first is it's logistical lifeline to the Bekaa. If it can't control that, it has to fall back on its supply. But the second objective is even more intriguing. Hezbollah must preserve its political position in Beirut.

It has real enemies among the other communities but, in Red River's phrase, had the overmatch. By taking on the Israelis, with respect to internal Lebanese politics, the Hez entered into a two-front war. The resources it must expend to find the IDF it must strip from its internal security. This creates opportunities for diplomats. The Hez must at some point choose between keeping their influence in Lebanon against their rivals or continuing the campaign against the IDF.

7/22/2006 04:33:00 PM  
Blogger desert rat said...

Sectarian Cleansing, demanding entire villages relocate to places unknown, while under fire.

The people, if they flee, flock to HB refugee centers.

If HB's combat strength is only 6,000, across the entire battle space...

"Insert airmobile and airborne forces north of the Litani to seal the rear of Hezbollah "

One hundred manpads would sure make an air assualt north of the river a bit more risky than sailing off Beirut with the air defense system turned off.

At the ratios obtained by the Afghans against the Soviets, those 100 manpads could drop 75 copters.
8 to 30 troopers per copter, depending upon the model, aye.

Would that qualify for a Surprise?

7/22/2006 04:41:00 PM  
Blogger A Jacksonian said...

The Good Captain has a post on Nasrallah Co-opting Lebanon and effectively taking control of the Government. If true, then Hezbollah can be dealt with as any other Nation State. And we just might want to tap on their door for two Beirut Embassy Bombings, the Marine Barracks Bombing and the Khobar Towers Bombing. If this is true, then perhaps a stiff reminder of those killed by Hezbollah would be a good antidote to their whining.

Let the Sixth Fleet give them a taste of a dish served very, very cold.

I do hope that Hezbollah has been unwise enough to do this... with the Saudi fatwa against them and the FM Conference coming out against them, a clear message is being sent.

The Golden Keys to opening this into a wider war is starting to shape up definitively against Iran, Syria and Hezbollah. Someone needs to start turning them, and the only one with the force to get that done sits in the WH. End this charade of terrorists as proxy for States. I do not care *who* started it or *when*, it must *end* and States be held accountable. Support Friends and Allies at War and bring in others who are willing to accept large risk for large reward. We have justification via all standards of diplomacy and need not one thing more, but more we do have.

A small and fast force, even not well trained can take out Syria once its air cover is gone, and that will be a good warm up for a CVN Battle Group. We have already proven such in Afghanistan and have much 'cred' in that doing... Syria is the weak link, break it and Hezbollah falls and Iran is fully isolated. Talk to Egypt and find if that freighter was truly owned by Egyptians and let them know 20,000 should do it to rescue their honor... especially after being told they do not matter by Hezbollah. Hit their pride and remind them of antiquity and long history. Hit them with the reality of a strong Hezbollah willing to fight all comers and interdict shipping if Israel cannot remove them. Remind them of that lovely Arab Nation they tried to form with Syria, and that maybe two stars could just be one. And finally let them know, if those things do not help, that their US dollars are about to dry up completely if they *do not* help, and will next be offered to Jordan and then Kurds... until we can get someone with stomach for this task so that those who LIVE there can end this problem with help but not have a solution imposed.

I had never thought that such an opportunity would be *given* to the civilized world by its enemies. We must take it and crack this little battle wide and shatter state support for terrorism in the Middle East. Either that, or let following generations live under worse threat in years to come... and they will scorn us for our inaction when such a job could be done far easier.

It is a fight that must be fought and we either do that now... or pay heavily and *try* to do it later. After the Golden Opportunity has shifted beneath the sands once more.

7/22/2006 05:02:00 PM  
Blogger TmjUtah said...

Desert -

You have to be alive to use one. A manpad, or a kaytusha, or even a rifle. For the guerilla, that means picking the time and place of the fight and having someplace to hide between attacks.

I concur comepletely with red river. This fight is being shaped by Israel with the objective of wiping out Hezbollah - which is fresh off being hosted by a nation state and shielded by the U.N. for literally decades.

We have been trained to accept "cycle of violence/peace process" as conventional wisdom instead of the horrific constructs they really are. Bad habits can work both ways; Hezbollah still hasn't accepted that there is no sanctuary yet, and are probably confident that supportive western media and U.N. condemnation will save them.

When I say we, I think I can safely presume to include most of the civilized world. Sadly enough.

I've seen Israel's suspected intentions or probable strategy equated with "ethnic cleansing" both here and elsewhere; good for F*****G THEM! If someboday took out ads they were going to slaughter the family members that survived the last trip to Sbarro's, I know what I'd do. What any sovereign state should be required to do.

What reason does Hezbollah, and all the other headcutters, exist for, when you get right down to it? I think their public objective where the Jews - and western civ, by the way - extends somewhat beyond diplomatic conventions. Everyone knows it, too. But they are just those darned Islamists and can't be expected, nay compelled, to know better. Besides, Americans are really the problem...

Syria's unconventional proxy is going to get slaughtered on a conventional battlefield, with the IDF postured to continue the fight against Iran's more conventional proxie (headquarters Damascus). The Israelis have never lived in peace. But they may be gearing up to change that situation.

Newt's right. Except for the number. This is four. And like the first three, we are going to be late into the real fight but we will be there at the finish.

The only question is the cost.

7/22/2006 05:19:00 PM  
Blogger Cedarford said...

Desert Rat -

I believe the US strategy against manpads by leading with fighter jets, then flying helicopters low and at night shirting populated areas -with attack helicopters and arty hitting IR "hot spots" worked prety well. The only time we got hit hard, other than when we were careless and lost daylight transports after "Victory" was declared, was the fiasco where some tactical genius decided to send a squadron of Longbows alone against the Hammurabi Division and they got shot to crap by AAA.

I would love to be a fly on the wall on the discussions the US, Turkey, Egypt, and KSA are now having with Syria and about Syria between them. Namely - how Syria might be persuaded or coerced to end Sunni Syria's alliance with Shiite Iran.

And if the US might have warned Syria that it could face American military action if it joins in the fray. We have scads of assets in the region, strategically we would like to leave Iran with NO regional allies - and would love a pretext to go in and clean out nests of Iraqi Sunni insurgents.

Wretchard - By taking on the Israelis, with respect to internal Lebanese politics, the Hez entered into a two-front war.

By making it even more than 2-front by a thrust to South Beruit, even an amphibious landing up by Tripoli, and trapping Hezzies in South Lebanon, you block much of Hezbollah from concentrating their fighters in Bekaa, where their true center of resistance and power and weaponry is. 4-5 Fronts for the Hezzies rather than just two.

I just don't see this as a one-week wonder ground war.

Lots of wild cards. If Hez was stupidly given any WMD by Syria or Iran, will they use them if Bekaa is invaded? Will they use Hezbollah cells overseas to start terror attacks? Or use long range missiles on Tel Aviv? Will Syria invade on the side of Hez and get invaded in turn by others. Will Iran abandon what last shreds sanity it's rulers might have and try using local cells to enflame the Gulf nations and try stopping oil commerce?

Will both Israel and Hez stop after another week, declare victory and stop???

7/22/2006 05:29:00 PM  
Blogger What is "Occupation" said...

israel is spelled israel

not isreal

7/22/2006 05:31:00 PM  
Blogger al fin said...

This is something the IDF has been discussing for several years. Hezbullah has been around since the 80s, since Iran and Hezbullah bombed the US Marine Corps Barracks in Beirut, killing hundreds of US Marines and French fighters.

Arabs always lose wars. In this case Lebanon might win very big by losing. Lebanon should sit this one out and let the IDF solve the Hezzy problem for the good people of Lebanon. Let the IDF take the trash out, and tidy things up a bit. Then Lebanon can have a real country, instead of a large gathering of civilian shields for moronic terrorist proxies of Iran and Syria.

7/22/2006 05:33:00 PM  
Blogger desert rat said...

The HB will not be caught on a "Conventional" battlespace.

They have not yet.
They've taken 10, 5 or 1 percent KIA, depending upon the real combat strength of Hezbollah
It's D+11.
I have "gamed" flying a flock of Hueys into a LZ with the avenues of approach and the LZ by multiple interlocking zones of RPGs. Thosed, fired by the dozen, turn out to be deadly
Let alone smart SAMs'

I don't know what the IDF is flying these days, but losing 12 or 15 of 'em in an Air Assualt, wouldn't surprise me.

The HB are popping out to kill tanks and that D9, crippled a ship, and continue to shoot around 100 rockets a day into Israel. They'll brave the target lock time on a copter's turbine exhaust.

7/22/2006 05:38:00 PM  
Blogger wretchard said...

I don't see this as a two week lightning war either. It will take about 1 month for Hezbollah to really get into logistical difficulties. Captain Ed links to a Lebanon Star article describing how Nasrallah controls Lebanon. If you go direct to the source article, you'll see how much of Nasrallah's effort is directed toward keeping Aoun and others out of his hair. He's giving the Lebanese government marching orders by maintaining key alliances. Those alliances are built on a compound of fear and favor. Once Nasrallah's tail to Syria gets clipped, he'll just be an annoying man with a beard.

Bill Roggio has a wonderful graphic of Hezbollahland. This is their state-within-a-state. Sumperimpose this map on the Belmont map above and think through what the Israelis might be trying. The missing piece is going astridge the Beirut-Damascus highway.

7/22/2006 05:38:00 PM  
Blogger rufus said...

Kind of O/T, but really relevent, I think. Omar, at Iraq the Model, reports on some New thinking by a lot of Iraqis.

7/22/2006 05:39:00 PM  
Blogger wretchard said...

Sorry, the Hezbollahland graphic is at

http://counterterrorismblog.org/images/hezbollahzones.jpg

good stuff.

7/22/2006 05:40:00 PM  
Blogger Ari Tai said...

re: sixth fleet.

hmm. Given this is a "just in time" world, I wonder if the PGMs Israeli has on order are already being delivered to their final destination? It would be an ecologically (fuel savings) friendly thing to do. Consider that the "offensive act" is programming the geolocation, not playing fedex driver at 15,000 feet. And everyone knows that the Israelis are great programmers.

So it must be time for the NYT to play "I spy for the other side" again.

7/22/2006 05:49:00 PM  
Blogger rufus said...

FA-18 Pilots as Fedex Drivers. That, I gotta admit, is a new one.

When it positively, absolutely has to be on time. hmm

7/22/2006 06:00:00 PM  
Blogger rufus said...

Habu, is PossumTater out of the room? Good. We don't want Any Trouble.

Australia is My Kind of Ally.

7/22/2006 06:23:00 PM  
Blogger Jim in Chicago said...

Al Fin has it dead on. The conventional wisdom seems to have it that Israel is fighting a battle at HB's choosing. This is dead wrong. HB overplayed their hand. Israel was just waiting for an excuse to take them down. And HB handed it to them. Israel has been preparing for this for years.

And, I'd add, ever since the US and the anti-Syrian/anti-HB factions drove the Syrians out of Leb this face-off has been inevitable.

It was clear then that they'd be no true Leb state -- at least not a pluralistic one -- without a day of reckoning with HB.

I'd not be surprised if both the US and the Leb gvt had a hand in all of this.

It's not Iran/Syria/HB that have the upper hand here at all. This is the end-game for Syria in the region, and Israel is fighting as the US proxy.

And it's the beginning of the end for the Mullahs.

Don't bet agains the IDF.

7/22/2006 06:37:00 PM  
Blogger For Freedom said...

...It's the beginning of the end for the Mullahs.

Let's hope so. Again, thank you Israel.

The Über-Mullahs of Iran can count on the rantings and ravings of their little Adolph, Ahmadinejad. Isn't that ugly little iranian man quite a psychopath? Where are the guys with the straitjacket to bring him back to the hospital?


Evidence Accumulates that Ahmadinejad is really crazy

7/22/2006 06:49:00 PM  
Blogger trish said...

"Repeated assaults against prepared positions are simply not something the Israelis can do, because they cannot afford casualties."

Because...?



An ARMORED thrust into the Bekaa.

Against Hizballah guerillas.

Ooookay.

7/22/2006 06:50:00 PM  
Blogger TmjUtah said...

This is 2006.

A prepared position with a known location is known in tactical speak as a "target". Once identified, they get destroyed.

If the objective is winning, it all comes down to infantry.

It's going to cost. Doesn't mean it won't be done.

7/22/2006 07:00:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

"At the ratios obtained by the Afghans against the Soviets, those 100 manpads could drop 75 copters."
---
I had no TV, but happened to be in a Radio Shack with TV on when the Sovs lost one of their last, complete with some MSM commentary trashing Reagan, of course.
---
Those were big, lumbering troop carriers:
Would our/Israeli odds be much better in something like Apaches?

7/22/2006 07:06:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

"Wouldn't"

7/22/2006 07:06:00 PM  
Blogger xwraith said...

Hrm, I can see why they took the terrain that they did. Dug up an old topographic map of the border there and that is the highest ground for kilometers around. 943 meters by the map I have at Maroun al-Ras. to the south east of what looks to be the Israeli center it sounds like they took the next highest hill at 891 meters, and their left flank is probably anchored in the small town of Yaroun at 796 meters. Everything north and west of there is lower (valley) or with a peek altitude of no higher then 825. Assuming the map is correct, at least tactically, the Israeli's just took the high ground.

7/22/2006 07:07:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

C-4's longbow incident was also special in that the entire neighborhood lit up with AK and larger fire, to some of our surprise.
Cellphone network, as I recall.

7/22/2006 07:12:00 PM  
Blogger trish said...

"It's going to cost. Doesn't mean it won't be done."

Right you are.

7/22/2006 07:12:00 PM  
Blogger Woman Catholic said...

jim in chicago said:

Israel was just waiting for an excuse to take them down. And HB handed it to them. Israel has been preparing for this for years.

I disagree. Certainly Barak wasn't planning for this when he pulled out of the South Lebanon buffer zone, and certainly Sharon wasn't planning for this when he pulled out of Gaza, and Olmert has been all about pulling back to essentially the pre-1967 lines. The whole raison d'etre of the Kadima Party was the strategy of pulling out of occupied territories and throwing up fences.

The rocket attacks have been going on for years. Charles Krauthammer even came up with the idea that Israel could, without human intervention, lob five shells back at random positions for every rocket that landed on Israel.

What changed everything and got the blogosphere buzzing was the kidnappings, which any sovereign state, including hard-core Islamic ones, find to be intolerable. Plus the realization by even the Euroweenies that the foes of Israel, far from being a class of poor occupied victims, need rather to be occupied to justify their blood-thirst.

7/22/2006 07:13:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

rufus,
There is no catwalk of that type here at Wretchard the cat's place.
(least that I've seen.)
But it IS an aussie place.

7/22/2006 07:21:00 PM  
Blogger rufus said...

Congratulations, Xwraith, you're the first reporter, blogger, pundit, talking head, General, or all-around bloviator to disclose the most vital piece of information about that location.

BTW, it didn't come cheap; the Israelis just disclosed they lost another 7 soldiers up there, today. That brings it to 11 for that hill, so far.

7/22/2006 07:30:00 PM  
Blogger rufus said...

Doug,

Why is there no catwalk at Belmont Club? Who's responsible for that?

I'll bet PossumTater would have one up by tomorrow iff'n we were to put him in charge of this.

7/22/2006 07:33:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

CNN Headines still lead, 24 hours later with:
"Lebanon, Humanitarian Disaster Feared"
Why?
Because Kofi said so.
nuf said, if you're CNN

7/22/2006 07:36:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Walkum, Possum!

7/22/2006 07:38:00 PM  
Blogger rufus said...

Restin Time for Rufus,

Good night John-Boy, G'nite PossumTater. oh, and you too, Doug.

7/22/2006 07:48:00 PM  
Blogger Cogitatus Incognito said...

Getting back on topic, I think Cedarford is onto something with the comment about pressure on Syria to turn. Bush has placed much more public focus on Syria than Iran in all this. The calculation Syria must make is: will Iran win or lose? Is Syria competent enough to understand the world will most likely never allow Iran to win in the end? Can we buy off Assad or not? Are there elements in Syria that would be willing to unseat Assad if the Arab world guaranteed their success?

7/22/2006 08:12:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

U.S. Plan Seeks to Wedge Syria From Iran

7/22/2006 08:37:00 PM  
Blogger Cogitatus Incognito said...

Thanks, Doug. Interesting site. I'm thinking Bush and the Arabs offer Assad survival and economic goodies to keep the street-level thugs in the regime happy.

I'm thinking the Saudis, Jordanians and others suggest to Assad he think through the likely outcome of the eventual Iranian/USA war and ask him if he prefers to follow Saddam's path or the Kadhaffi's. We've just demonstrated in Afghanistan and Iraq that we've got the will and power to do regime-change.

It seems to me the question is how intelligent is Assad? If he is as thick as his reputation suggests then there must be someone in the regime who could take his place for the right price.

My guess is we're at that heart-stopping moment in the poker game where the bluff has been called and the other side now has to decide if they believe in their hand or not. Tension rises by the second until that fateful moment when the cards are thrown down for all to see. Assad's got to ask himself how many aces Bush holds.

7/22/2006 09:05:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Happy times in the comments at Landis' place:

More lies, more deceit, more cheap slogans to hide more Semitic Jewish inspired and American Christian implemented genocides, rapes and economic inhalation in the Middle East with the help and under cover of dirty Semitic barbaric Moslem traitors.

New marketing blitz by the Bush Ranch Hands to cover the genocide blitz carried out by the evil and diabolic Semites on Lebanon.
Parts of Beirut look like 9-11
Hez wasn't there was it?
You know those J..., nothing better to do but take down random buildings in Southern Beirut.

7/22/2006 09:09:00 PM  
Blogger The Sanity Inspector said...

We have been trained to accept "cycle of violence/peace process" as conventional wisdom instead of the horrific constructs they really are.

Somebody once said that peacekeeping was the process of dragging a war out to its longest possible duration.

Wonder what kind of desertion rate Hezbollah is enduring now? The fanatics are no doubt overjoyed to have IDF bring the hurtin' to them. But I'll bet some are just bullyboys who joined up to swagger around in sunglasses, muscle tees, and AKs. And pick up chicks. If they've bolted now, it'll be telling to see if the civilian Lebs turn on them.

7/22/2006 09:12:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

In Iran’s Streets, Aid to Hezbollah Stirs Resentment

Iran has been Hezbollah’s prime patron for decades, but many Iranians are wary of their government’s commitments abroad.
(nytimes reads like ledeen, for once!)
---
Even a figure like Ali Akbar Mohtashamipour, who had been one of the founders of Hezbollah in Lebanon, commented cautiously about Iran’s role in the current conflict. “Iran cannot play an instrumental role because of the long distance,” he told the daily Etemad Melli recently. “Besides, Arab countries consider the issue of Palestine and Lebanon as an Arab issue,” he added, suggesting that Iran, as a non-Arab nation, should keep its distance.

Whether or not Iran played a role in actually inciting the crisis seemed irrelevant to people interviewed Saturday.

Ali Muhammadi runs a small DVD shop, a closet-size booth where he sells pirated DVD’s for about $1 each. “I don’t think it’s an important issue for us,” he said of the conflict in Lebanon. “I think the government should take care of its people first.”

7/22/2006 09:29:00 PM  
Blogger Scott said...

Wretchard --

Last week you said all possibilities exhist. Including Syrian Iranian FROG missiles with WMD.

Iran has been strangely quiet the last 24 regarding the ground incursion in Lebanon which Chief (Short Guy) Napoleon Complex Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad intimated LAST WEEK Israel would pay for and I paraphase "with hellfire and brimstone upon them", if Israel dared a ground invasion.

Yesterday calling for a Ceasefire,
http://www.albawaba.com/en/countries/Iran/201049

So what is it -- will they back track and do the abu bawaba two step , Elmer Fud and look like fools, or beat their collective Breasts and Launch some token missiles at Tel Aviv ?

Or are they afraid to take on the Israelis and ultimately the United States at this Juncture ?

7/22/2006 10:56:00 PM  
Blogger Utopia Parkway said...

Apparently the Palestinians in Gaza have decided to make a deal. For the past several days Egypt has been working with the Pals on this deal.

The initiative, proposed by Egypt and discussed by Palestinian leaders in Gaza in the last few days, consists of freeing Gilad Shalit, a joint cease-fire and the cessation of the IDF's assassinations in the Gaza Strip and freeing Palestinian prisoners later on.

Apparently Hamas wants to separate itself from HB in the eyes of the intl community so will make this separate deal.

The flies in the ointment at this point appear to be questions of whether the external Hamas will agree and also whether other terrorist groups besides Hamas and Fatah will agree to the cease-fire.

This is good news for Israel if it goes through. It makes them look more reasonable, it will cool down their Gaza front, and it will place pressure on HB to release their two soldiers, although that's not likely to really do anything.

7/22/2006 11:00:00 PM  
Blogger Alexis said...

Let's say for the sake of argument that the rumor about Iraqi chemical weapons stored in the Bekaa Valley is true. What then?

Hezbollah has effective control over the Bekaa Valley; no major undertaking happen there unless Mr. Nasrallah knows about it. So, if the Bekaa Valley comes under the control of Israel, it would be interesting to discover what is found there. It may be possible to verify if chemical weapons were ever stored in the Bekaa Valley.

Just a thought.

7/22/2006 11:34:00 PM  
Blogger xwraith said...

Posted some coordinates over on my blog people can check out with Google earth: http://transitumbra.blogspot.com/

7/22/2006 11:55:00 PM  
Blogger 2164th said...

Doug, your link at 9:09

http://fromisraeltolebanon.info/

Is this a hearts and minds operation? Who would want to be associated with this?

7/23/2006 12:13:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

2164th,
That, and some words by Metaz K. M. Aldendeshe, aka Michael Rossini were posted in comments at Landis' site linked above.
They, and several others, have now been removed by a blog admin.

7/23/2006 01:03:00 AM  
Blogger Harrison said...

Splitting from Hamas leadership

But the three militant groups — Al Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades, Islamic Jihad and the Hamas military wing — denied that a cease-fire had been agreed upon, saying that their rocket attacks were a response to Israeli aggression.

For all of its desperate emphasis that Hamas' leadership has a military and a political wing, Haniyeh sure hasn't been politically astute; by agreeing to brokering a ceasefire with Israel as well as the release of Shalit, Hamas has lost all credence and influence over the other splinter terrorist groups like Islamic Jihad and the Qassam Brigades who eschew negotiations regarding them as anathema.

Obviously, nobody in the right frame of mind would consider Haniyeh and his ilk to be contented with peace with Israel. It might be intentional to throw up another ceasefire plan in order to put the onus on Israel to comply yet again, with Hamas itself acknowledging and counting on the factionalism and vigilante nature of these terrorist cells to continue exploiting Gaza as a staging ground.

Haniyeh is again being his usual deceitful, apologetic self. A ceasefire would deceive Israel into thinking Gaza would be settled, and the IDF can be safely redeployed into Southern Lebanon to fight Hezbollah's conventional forces there. It would be foolish to overlook the possibility that this is merely a diversionary tactic which would serve only to dissolve the impetus and momentum of Israel's decisiveness and willpower.

7/23/2006 01:22:00 AM  
Blogger HK Vol said...

Could Hamas be willing to deal now because they've lost leverage? Now that the MSM is pre-occupied with Lebanon, Hamas and Gaza can't use "Israeli atrocities" to forward their case. Thus, get a cease-fire and wait for Lebanon to settle down before resuming their previous missle attacks and kidnappings.

7/23/2006 01:23:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

I agree with Harrison.
How many truces and peace treaties does one have to suffer before one takes this for granted?
---
2164th,
My mistake:
That was posted by an "Ameen," Metaz commented on it thus:
---
At Saturday, July 22, 2006, Metaz K. M. Aldendeshe said...
Thanks Ameen.
Will forward to all the Neo Nazi's sites worldwide to disply on their sites.
Don't bother sending American officials, Congress or Christian churches these pictures, they will enjoy looking at it and hold parties. They may even show it altered in pornographic website and charge for it $29.99 per use for get rich quick plan.

7/23/2006 01:38:00 AM  
Blogger desert rat said...

doug
Apaches do not carry troops, but missles.
Blackhawks, Huey's and Chinnucks.
are all bigger & "less quick" than Apaches.

The copters the US lost, in Afghanistan during that rescue mission, were lost it was thought, to RPGs

With SAMs it's the target's heat signature, not radar, that guide the missles

By the way, the Syrians say they are ready to roll if Israel advances towards the Syrian border.

FOX also reports, almost as an aside, a desire for a NATO "buffer" force on the Blue Line as expressed by an Israeli "spokesperson"

7/23/2006 03:54:00 AM  
Blogger 2164th said...

DR, your response to " nancee" on her obsession with who had too many posts was superb. She did not have the guts to name who it was that was irritating her and your quick analysis and mild rejoinder was right on the mark.

Back OT, I think "the path of the IDF" after day 12 has been a recruiting dream tool for Hezbollah. A heavy handed embarassing clumsy inept action worthy of the Russians in Chechnya. For Israel to keep claiming it is all about the release of two soldiers is insane. As of this entry Fox is reporting that Israel says "all that has to be done is to release the two soldiers." This from the same country whose military once awed the world with "The Entebbe Raid". Israel needs to clean the clocks of their military command. They are inept.

7/23/2006 04:21:00 AM  
Blogger Norman Rogers said...

Dean Barnett at SoxBlog has an insightful post:

THE URGE FOR A CEASEFIRE

Dean's point? Israel's goal is and should be, VICTORY, not a ceasefire.

Did the US seek a ceasefire on December 8th, 1941?

And my two cents: Lebanon should no more be considered a "victim" of Hezbollah than Austria was Hitler's first victim. Hezbollah has the minds and hearts of the Lebanese just as the Nazis and the promise of racial supremacy had the overwhelming support of Austrians.

The Lebanese army targeted the Israeli missile frigate with coastal radar -- that's why the sites are now holes in the ground.

The Lebanese defense minister has proclaimed that his army will fight with Hezbollah (an empty promise, to be sure).

As yea sow ...

7/23/2006 04:41:00 AM  
Blogger desert rat said...

The Israeli demand noncombatants abandon their homes, then attack the fleeing refugees.
Killing a minibus, 3 people and 11 injured, just this vety morning, or late afternoon, there.

When is an Invasion not, when Israel calls it something else.
What is is?

It is an interesting response from some of our members. When the US military half steps, missteps or walks in the wrong direction, they are among the first to advise "Staying the Course" right or wrong.
On D+12 in Israel, when the IDF and the Israeli government mimics US, these same posters think it's the end of history.

Funny stuff.

7/23/2006 05:13:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

norman rogers,
Couldn't agree more.
Hope most have been disabused by now of their notions of some Lebanese sympathies, esp most of the folks in South Lebanon.
I think one of the reasons the Israelis, as well as Condi, stress the kidnapped soldiers, is that Nasrudin the Magician, or whoever, specifically made a big deal about that, saying they would never be returned unless their hero killer of 4 year old girl was released.
Thus, no deal, thus more time to root out and destroy the Hezzies before the girls in charge of the "World Community" come up with a way of once again keeping killers from getting their just deserts.
---
OT - don't miss the 94 year old baseball player.
CNN.com has video in case you missed it.

7/23/2006 05:13:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

I actually was thinking of Blackhawks, 'Rat:
Aren't even they lots more agil and tough than those monster sov models.
I was pretty impressed by the ugliness of that giant in the sky coming down into a ball of flame.
...even tho they were commies.
---
Our guys in Warizistan were operating at 10k or something, in a very bad situation.
All I'm thinking is that our odds now would have to be somewhat better than the Sovs.
You did read the always informative C-4, right? ;-)
We had two blackhawks come down here:
1 was towing a hummer, and another snagged the line:
Most of the troops survived the resulting disaster.

7/23/2006 05:22:00 AM  
Blogger desert rat said...

C4's tactics for avoiding/ suppressing the manpad threat are accurate. Perhaps the HB will not obtain 75% accuracy, like the Afghans. But even at a lower rate, it'd still be a surprise, to Israel and the world.

Perhaps HB have no manpad capacity at all. I'd doubt it, but ...

7/23/2006 05:28:00 AM  
Blogger allen said...

Yesterday, I asked four questions, which now have been answered by Y-Net (IDF’s next target: ‘Hizbullah villages’). http://www.ynetnews.com/
articles/0,7340,L-3279867,00.
html

Indeed, the Israelis have held for days positions across the Blue Line.

Yes, the Israelis are exploiting their gains across the Blue Line as this is written.

Hezbollah has been incapable of mounting a counterattack against the Israeli salients.

Hezbollah has been incapable of launching indirect fire against the Israeli salients, despite its vaunted weapons inventory. It has, however, continued to attack defenseless Israeli civilian targets.

From the story I begin to sense the Lebanese response: We are not NAZIS, Hezbollah made us do it.

Arab warrior - right


xwraith at 7:07 PM:

Bingo! Will Israel hold this ground as it has the Golan, depriving future aggressors of these tactical gems? Let’s hope so. Who knows, in fifty years the Israelis might return the heights to the trustworthy government of Lebanon.

7/23/2006 05:34:00 AM  
Blogger allen said...

desert rat,

With respect, listen to yourself.

Yes, it is D-11, so what? How did the number of days become dispositive of anything?

It is always tomorrow, for Hezbollah. Tomorrow, Hezbollah will use its deadly arsenal to teach the Israelis a grim lesson.

With respect, it is D-11 and Hezbollah has proven itself capable only of doing what Hezbollah does, inflicting limited damage on the weak and defenseless.

With respect, Hezbollah is nothing more than anyother Arab clan. It ambushes small, unwary caravans and immediately retreats back into the desert to enjoy the booty.

Could Hezbollah become the government of Lebanon? Of course, but only in the same way the NAZI became the government of Germany - with the all too willing participation of the Lebanese, who accept the myth of something for nothing.

7/23/2006 05:59:00 AM  
Blogger desert rat said...

Now it is D+12, the Israeli said, going in, it'd take "a week or two".
Ms Rice is almost wheels up, the Syrians want to talk. So will Ms Rice.
The IAF has adopted "just in time" inventory methods. Ms Rice controls the export approvals.
The Israeli Defense Minister calls for NATO deployment in a buffer zone. The French, Italians and Russians have volunteered for duty.

Connect the dots
Time is running out .

7/23/2006 06:07:00 AM  
Blogger Woman Catholic said...

Breaking the "two post rule" this one time to raise a point of order. Namely, what happened to the "two post rule" ?

7/23/2006 06:17:00 AM  
Blogger desert rat said...

The refugee count has reached 600,000 people.
Some people feel as much sympathy for innocent unarmed civilians, that happened to be born into a dysfunctional country, as they do for the civilians in Israel.

Oft occuppied and all that, in all reality Lebanon is barely a city state, let alone a real country.

Without sectarian cleansing, in the buffer zone, Israel will have no respite, regardless of the Force in place. The IDF cannot stop the inbound rockets, even today.

Same as in Iraq, if sectarian conflicts continue and intensify to the levels along the Blue line.

7/23/2006 06:18:00 AM  
Blogger rufus said...

Teresita, on the thread

The Lebaneses Border

you had 8 comments

7/23/2006 06:45:00 AM  
Blogger allen said...

teresita; 6:17 AM

At 7:07 PM, xwraith made a thought provoking observation speaking to tactical topography.

At 11:55 PM, xwraith again broached the topic.

Unless someone at Belmont is willing to converse with xwraith, he/she/...may perceive a lack of interest in the topic or in the person. That might risk the loss to Belmont of an obviously bright contributor. Should the two post optimum limit, therefore, apply?

Where is that "Preparation H"?

7/23/2006 06:53:00 AM  
Blogger Harrison said...

re: norman rogers

A somewhat ominous statement made by Lebanese President Emile Lahoud in response to the mobilisation of Israeli reserve troops:


Lebanese President Emile Lahoud said the Lebanese army is "ready to defend" the country's territory if Israel launches a ground invasion.

"Of course, the army is going to defend its land, and inside Lebanon, they can do a lot," he told CNN.
"They cannot be strong enough to be against Israel on the frontier."


If the Lebanese government is truly intent on eradicating the suffocating grip of Syria on its capabilities to govern and establish a viable, self-sustaining institution, Lahoud needs to do what Jordan did to the PLO rejectionists back in '70; if what Saniora has said about the Lebanese army being "too weak to defend" themselves is true, then allow Israel to crush Hezbollah - the IAF and IDF have the means and will necessary to annihilate this scourge of evil for good.

So there's a seemingly innocuous disconnect between the rhetoric of Lahoud and Saniora, something the bloggers have missed in spite of the overwhelming coverage of events occuring with alarming alacrity. Many would dismissively wave off Lahoud's squeals as blind belief in the atrociously weak army, but what he is truly suggesting beneath that facade is the possibility of asymmetrical warfare against Israeli troops in Lebanon i.e. Hezbollah.

Why else would he mention the obvious unconscionability of Lebanese troops fighting the Israeli army at the border i.e. an open, conventional war reminiscent of '67? Lahoud secretly hopes that Hezbollah will hunker down in its civilian hideouts and draw Israeli troops into an asymmetrical war of attrition, eventually driving the IDF back and out of Lebanon. The supine nonchalance of Lahoud in allowing Hezbollah to run rampant all over the country is unarguably vinidicative of the need for Israel to intervene without being bogged down by the supercilious nature of the Lebanese government.

7/23/2006 06:59:00 AM  
Blogger allen said...

A thousand pardons, but has anyone been reading Y-Net this morning?

1) “Syrian information minister says country to enter Israel-Hizbullah conflict if IDF forces invade Lebanon, approach Syria border. in meeting with Spanish foreign minister in Madrid…”
2) Israeli Major General Kaplinsky tells cabinet, “[T]here are continuous attempts to smuggle arms into Lebanon via Syria.”

Without doubt the New York Times would sell as much space to Syria as necessary for Syria to declare war on Israel and by extension the United States vis-à-vis Iraq.

Would anyone in Tel Aviv or D.C. notice?

7/23/2006 07:07:00 AM  
Blogger rufus said...

Exactly Allen,

Xwraith was The Only One, anywhere, on the web, on tv, in the newspapers, who got out a topo map, and reported on the "Tactical" importance of that village.

That observation deserves being responded to. Would anyone want that commenter to take his insights to another location?

7/23/2006 07:10:00 AM  
Blogger nuggs said...

Here is the most detailed map of Lebanon I have found.

ministry of tourism map

It is a html file setup on a grid of links to other html files, this
makes it a pain to save the files for photoshop use or printing. So here
are the source jpg's. I am not sure how long the links will last,
probably until the ministry of tourism loses power or gets toasted.


full map jpg
right side 7(bottom)
right side 6
right side 5
right side 4
right side 3
right side 2
right side 1(top)
middle 7(bottom)
middle 6
middle 5
middle 4
middle 3
middle 2
middle 1(top)
left 7(bottom)
left 6
left 5
left 4
left 3
left 2
left 1(top)

7/23/2006 07:16:00 AM  
Blogger Comrade X said...

"DR, your response to " nancee" on her obsession with who had too many posts was superb. She did not have the guts to name who it was that was irritating her and your quick analysis and mild rejoinder was right on the mark." 2164th

not so much, but go ahead and comment 15+ times per post. wretchard has requested this before and was ignored then too.

7/23/2006 07:29:00 AM  
Blogger Karensky said...

Seems the Lebonese are havng a Hezzie fit what with all of the civilians being offed. Aren't Hezbollah civilian by definition? When I look at the hez and Syrian positions the most suprising option that cam to me was the Kurd option.
Sure the Turks won't like it, the Iranians won't like it, the Southern Shiia in Iraq won't like it, Mookie won't like it and the Baathist Sunnis won't like. Hey, I like it. Mikey even likes it. Should the Baby Dentist not quite get the big picture, that he shouldn't be hanging in the hood with the Mad Dinner Jacket, it looks like he just might get the bigger picture when the Kurdish Peshmerga start showing up in the Northwest. When Israel is moving around in his south he now has a really big problem.
This may lead to a recalibration by the Iranian supported Iraqis and they don't get the implications then we could use the Kurds moving into northern Iranjheading down the Isfahan road toward the Caspian.
Nashrallah wants all out war everywhere perhaps he can give that gift to the Mad Mullahs. All we need to really do is to have NATO support running to the Turkish Generals as I am sure they can keep the politicos pretty quiet about the Kurds.
Karensky

7/23/2006 07:30:00 AM  
Blogger Karensky said...

PIMF Lebanon not Lebonon, idjit!

7/23/2006 07:31:00 AM  
Blogger rufus said...

Since we are about 2 days ahead of the NYT, and the rest of MSM, let me take a moment and give you the best reason I know why we can't allow the Radical Islamists to win.

This person must never be made to wear a burkha.

7/23/2006 07:47:00 AM  
Blogger rufus said...

Okay, time to get serious, again. You're not going to believe this from ace-o-spades.

The U.N. helping with Hezbollah kidnappings?

It appears that at least four of the UNIFIL "peacekeepers," all from India, has received bribes from Hezbollah in order to assist the kidnapping by helping them get to the kidnapping spot and find the Israeli soldiers. Some of the bribery involved alcohol and Lebanese women.

It just gets worse. You're not going to believe it. The U.N. should be shut down.

7/23/2006 08:13:00 AM  
Blogger Juan Golblado said...

wretchard, that Daily Star article you mention which Capt Ed talks about is merely some Lebanese journalist's take on an interview Nasrallah gave to al-jazeera. The article contains not one quote by Nasrallah. Plus, Capt Ed has made too much of what Nasrallah is said to have said. Nasrallah is describing the process of his communication with the "international community" via Lebanese government officials, which of course shows him calling the shots. But he is calling those shots there only because he is the object of the game: it is about people who want to talk to him and Leb. govt. people are the obvious go-between.

This says nothing about Nasrallah running Lebanon.

He may run it. I do not mean to address the substance of the claim about Nasrallah with my comment, but to say that what has been adduced as evidence about the claim (i.e. from the Daily Star second-hand account) and Capt Ed's conclusions) is in fact not evidence supporting the claim.

If you have other evidence, fine, maybe it's true. Maybe it's true whether you have evidence or not. But third hand analysis of second hand reports are nothing to go by.

7/23/2006 08:17:00 AM  
Blogger Woman Catholic said...

rufus said...

Teresita, on the thread The Lebaneses Border you had 8 comments

Indeed, anyone can go back before wretchard made the rule and find earlier threads where the rule-followers were posting more than 2 posts per thread.

allen said

Unless someone at Belmont is willing to converse with xwraith, he/she/...may perceive a lack of interest in the topic or in the person. That might risk the loss to Belmont of an obviously bright contributor. Should the two post optimum limit, therefore, apply?

I don't think it's a good rule, in fact it's a deal breaker for me. I don't like the "look and feel" of the blog now that I only get one commentary and one follow up. So...uh...carry on.

7/23/2006 08:20:00 AM  
Blogger Juan Golblado said...

This running away with mis-information keeps getting worse. Rufus picked up something from Ace of Spaces HQ but failed to note:
"(Report of the fact-finding investigation relating to the abduction of three Israeli soldiers on 7 October 2000 and subsequent relevant events, Aug. 2, 2001.)"

Reading just Rufus's comment one would think he was providing information about current events. And this happens to come at a time when Ace of Spades is difficult to reach due to his ad servers' slowness, increasing the likelihood that someone would go away with just the incomplete report in memory.

Please, ladies and gentlemen, let's keep our heads. Wrong information put forward from any given point of view tends to wear away the credibility of that point of view.

7/23/2006 08:29:00 AM  
Blogger rufus said...

I'd like to appeal to the Belmont Club readers to restrict their comments to one or two per thread. Some readers have complained that a few readers have basically taken over the thread and that tends to shut down participation.

Teresita, That was the Same thread.

7/23/2006 08:32:00 AM  
Blogger rufus said...

No, Juan, I picked that up. But, it's the same U.N. force that is there now, and the cover-up by the U.N. is still going on.

7/23/2006 08:34:00 AM  
Blogger rufus said...

Juan, I'm driving an old HP, here, and every time I click on my link it just pops right up.

And, Juan, believe me, this bunch "Can" read.

7/23/2006 08:43:00 AM  
Blogger Buddy Larsen said...

Instapundit aimed a lot of attention at the Oct 2000 Un/Hez/IDF incident--which took place just five days before the USS Cole hit, and less than a year before the WTC hit.

Teresita, don't go, your commentary is great. Just cheat the rule, everyone else does, when they have the hots to say something. What Wretchard really wants, I'll bet, is less off-topic chit-chat, as it dilutes the value of the thread as an info distributor. But I can't speak for him--just guessing. But don't quit--endure.

7/23/2006 08:45:00 AM  
Blogger rufus said...

Teresita, you've made some good posts; we've all enjoyed reading them. I hope we all have that pleasure in the future.

7/23/2006 08:52:00 AM  
Blogger Jamie Irons said...

Buddy,

Teresita can have my other comment on this thread for today.

I find her remarks most useful (much better than mine).

Jamie Irons

7/23/2006 08:53:00 AM  
Blogger desert rat said...

Well, buddy, a little civil disobedience is what you are calling for?
Mark Steyn writes
Meanwhile, Kofi Annan in a remarkable display of urgency (at least when compared with Sudan, Rwanda, Congo et al.) is proposing apropos Israel and Hezbollah that U.N. peacekeepers go in, not to keep the "peace" between two sovereign states but rather between a sovereign state and a usurper terrorist gang. Contemptible as he is, the secretary-general shows a shrewd understanding of the way the world is heading: Already "non-state actors" have more sophisticated rocketry than many EU nations; if Iran has its way, its proxies will be implied nuclear powers. Maybe we should put them on the U.N. Security Council.

So what is in reality Israel's first non-Arab war is a glimpse of the world the day after tomorrow: The EU and Arab League won't quite spell it out, but, to modify that Le Monde headline, they are all Jews now.

7/23/2006 08:55:00 AM  
Blogger rufus said...

Buddy, the Instapundit link does give a more complete treatment of the U.N. actions than Ace's does.

Thanks

7/23/2006 09:18:00 AM  
Blogger Buddy Larsen said...

Rufus, still just as shocking, tho, isn't it. Can the world endure, continually abiding such as Kofi Annan?

Bolton opened my eyes a day or two ago, in an in-depth (that is, 5 minute) tv interview. Asked how he ever hoped to accomplish anything at the UN, he answered that he's there just to keep worse things from happening than if he weren't there. Not his exact words, but sure enough his meaning.

7/23/2006 09:31:00 AM  
Blogger rufus said...

Was This on it's way to the Beqaa Valley?

Iran caught red-handed smuggling nuclear materials. Just wait until you see who the "seller" was.

Counterterrorismblog has the same story.

7/23/2006 09:35:00 AM  
Blogger mnc said...

I think we need to give xwraith credit for independent discovery, but in today's Sunday Independent
http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=33&si=1658758&issue_id=14403

" One of these strategic positions, Maroun er Ras, is well known to the thousands of Irish peacekeepers who served in Lebanon. It is known to the UN as 'OP (observation post) Ras', as it is one of the highest points in south Lebanon and gives soldiers a commanding view over the countryside around, including into northern Israel. The IDF sent special forces units towards OP Ras on Wednesday but they were repulsed by Hizbollah forces who appeared out of the tunnel network. The UN in Lebanon now believes that Hizbollah has spent years digging these strategic tunnels and that it will be very difficult to dislodge them. The fighting and bombardment over the past 12 days is said to be far worse than the two previous major Israeli bombardments of south Lebanon in 1993 and 1996. UN sources in the area are reporting very extensive damage to some of the towns in the former Irish Battalion, which are familiar names for the estimated 30,000 Irish soldiers who served there.

One Hizbollah stronghold, the small town of Haddatah, was badly damaged in the past as the IDF responded to rocket attacks into north Israel. "This time we have heard that Haddatah has been flattened" a UN source said. He added: "There was a fairly major IDF incursion on Thursday, maybe 1,000 troops . Hizbollah has dug in around OP Ras. This is Vietcong-type stuff. We understand that hundreds of Hizbollah appeared out of side tunnels."

The removal of the experienced Irish Battalion also ended the extensive intelligence network that the Irish had built up in the area. The remaining UN force, it appears, had absolutely no idea that Hizbollah spent the intervening four or five years preparing a network of underground tunnels in preparation for a renewed conflict with Israel.
"

7/23/2006 09:38:00 AM  
Blogger PeterBoston said...

I had the impression yesterday that the IDF had made only a recon and pulled back across the border after s single engagement.

I am pleased to see that is not the case. Israel is holding the critical high ground on the Lebanese side and building forces on their side of the border.

If we accept that Israel is time-limited then the pace of engagement is way too slow to kill enough HB to make a difference.

I am going to assume therefore that Israel, by agreement with the US, or despite a lack of it, is going to take as long as it takes to clear the Bekaa or emasculate HB or both.

7/23/2006 09:39:00 AM  
Blogger R2K said...

I am new to this blog but I just wanted to check it out.

Good stuff! : )

7/23/2006 10:11:00 AM  
Blogger Tony said...

RE: MNC's post about Hez in the tunnels, perhaps there is a role for B-52's and Daisycutters in this battlefield. Like the fighters in Cu Chi, some may live thru Arclight strikes, but they won't be shooting straight when they come up. But of course, Israel doesn't have B's. Hmmm. What kind of provocation would it take to bring in the US B's? Are we EVER going to be able to fight alongside the Israelis against our mutual Islamofascist enemies?

RE: the two post limit, maybe we need a separate thread for chat, with pointers back to what the chat is all about in Wretchard's main threads. Besides bickering, the two post limit is perhaps the most damaging threat to our BC community by causing interesting posters to fade away.

7/23/2006 10:14:00 AM  
Blogger bobalharb said...

Old posters never die, they just fade away....

7/23/2006 10:22:00 AM  
Blogger allen said...

For those interested in some good video out of Lebanon rather than whether again I have violated the two post “rule”, see http://pixane.net/blog/?p=90 via The Truth Laid Bear: “Video-- Pixane.net 07/23 7:25 am”


I found video "two" highly instructive.

If it is given that there apparently is an inexhaustible supply of armaments available to Hezbollah, but that the number of Hezbollah fighters is limited, should the emphasis be on the destruction of equipment or human operators?

In this video, a Katyusha launcher releases 11 rockets, one at time. After a pause the launcher is eventually hit from on high. Carefully watch the bottom of the film frame. Just prior to the Israeli hit, two individuals will be observed scooting across a road to safety on dirt bikes.

Dirt bikes! Those clever monkeys.

7/23/2006 10:26:00 AM  
Blogger Buddy Larsen said...

Lucky for them there's some countries that can build dirt bikes.

7/23/2006 10:35:00 AM  
Blogger Sonspot said...

Not to drag this post limit thing on but I love this site and would hate to see anything changed. With that said, I only post about twice a month and would be happy to give my 58 post credits to others who need them.

7/23/2006 10:36:00 AM  
Blogger Buddy Larsen said...

There ya go, Wretchard--a market is deriving, based on the value of expression. Charge $5 a post--except for mine, which I work hard to maintain "worthless".

7/23/2006 10:41:00 AM  
Blogger desert rat said...

buddy,
Those Chinese, clever devils.

Selling cruise missiles and motorcycles.

7/23/2006 10:49:00 AM  
Blogger rufus said...

Mine too, Buddy. I tried to give mine to a manic marsupial/veggie, but he ran into some playful possumtang, and blew me right off. Then bragged about the whole next day. I'm gonna go take a nap before I get banned for possum-panning.

7/23/2006 10:52:00 AM  
Blogger al fin said...

All the Hizbullah cannon fodder holed up in tunnels will die there. They have taken the one way ticket to the 72 raisin dispenser.

Syria will sign its death warrant if its so much as sends one fighter plane into the arena. Syria will prove once again why arabs lose wars, if stupid enough to raise its head out of its bunker.

Israel has indeed been planning for this for many years--whoever is leader of the government is irrelevant. It is the IDF planners who are constant, year after year, and who keep the planning on target. If the superfluous details of the hardware and manpower allocation alters with elections, the war planners can improvise.

7/23/2006 10:57:00 AM  
Blogger desert rat said...

Just heard on FOX that Iran was sending 1,000 lives to the Bekaa Valley
Revolutionary Guards, she said.
I think I heard that.

7/23/2006 10:59:00 AM  
Blogger bobalharb said...

We need a set price, as my posts are as worthless as Buddy's, and we are at a disadvantage vis a vis those of value. We need equal outcomes, it's the thing nowadays.

7/23/2006 11:01:00 AM  
Blogger Fabio said...

This is a curious twist indeed. Israel suggests the civilians in the area to evacuate, and it becomes "sectarian cleansing". I can only foresee, but if Israel did things in the old fashion; that is destroying the targets that need to be destroyed without concern for collateral damage, it would be genocide. Or is there anything about Israel that will escape this kind of criticism?

7/23/2006 11:03:00 AM  
Blogger PossumTater said...

we'll i done mist evr'thang cause i fell asleep under one dim SUV...nex thiang i node wees outside of Oxford.
idone luked in the winder and this place had kids, well young folk danc'in real close,evn sum up on a leg.
i went back round to wheres the food always be fo us Possumtaters and dang was there some kinda sweet corn licka. well i commenced to draw down sum but i figure i better git back home. i headed for the SUV but ther wuz three or four lookin the same so i had to go smell'in..well finally made it home but done miss all the shiite go'in on ..cept my friend Rufus sent me a nice card wit a girl on it and dang if she wudn't from marsipial country down under..made me wanna be down under, all homesick...now i got a head like a foot frum day corn licker..

7/23/2006 11:03:00 AM  
Blogger Red River said...

The Bekaa Valley is a trap for Hezbollah. It has Operation Anaconda written all over it.

7/23/2006 11:27:00 AM  
Blogger trish said...

Indeed, red river.

7/23/2006 11:32:00 AM  
Blogger desert rat said...

trish,
do you still have the link to the Operation Anaconda story?

7/23/2006 11:40:00 AM  
Blogger Buddy Larsen said...

Reuters reports:

"The enemy is deceiving its own people and the world by presenting the occupation of Maroun al-Ras as a great military achievement," a Hizbollah statement said. "An army using its elite forces and tanks backed by its air force that can enter a frontier village only after days of fighting ... is a defeated and useless army."

One could argue that an army which loses a critical fortress at very little cost to the enemy is at least as defeated and useless. But that's too obvious.

7/23/2006 11:41:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

11:03 AM Possum,
That'll teach you, tater:
Stick to Garbage Cans.
That's Marsipial country.
If rufus gets you somethin from down under, find yoself a big Dumpster, and commence divin.

7/23/2006 11:47:00 AM  
Blogger Tony said...

Red River, Trish,

I always enjoy your analysis of military matters, but how is the Bekaa like Operation Anaconda? The enemy forces are going to much larger and better equipped, the terrain is much lower and simpler, etc. Or maybe you are referring to the fact that the good guys underestimated the enemy in Anaconda at first? Or, the vastly disproportionate casualty count favoring the good guys? I'm not getting the analogy.

7/23/2006 11:49:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

11:41 AM Larsen,
You missed the point:
The Israelis are screwed because they are so superior.
Muslim logic.

7/23/2006 11:51:00 AM  
Blogger trish said...

Funny, Rat, I had the same thought, but, no, I don't have the link.

Might be able to google it though.

7/23/2006 11:52:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

11:49 AM Tony,
We could take turns asking what Trish means when she gets obscure and minimalist with her clues:
That way we'd only look half as stupid to her maybe?

7/23/2006 11:54:00 AM  
Blogger desert rat said...

They are not an Army, buddy, not a State.
Just a rag tag bunch of Terrorists.
Held off the IDF for 12 days, so far. Now has limited the IDF to a 2.5 mile (aprox) Incursion.

At the beginning the Israeli "Goal" was HB's "destruction" now it is to be "disarmed".

Better than Eygpt or Syria ever did, in all the previous Wars and Battles. HB has lost less. The strongest of the acceptable horses.

Ralph Peters wrote that while the KSA and Arab League have sided against HB, their peoples have not. The NYTimes mentioned the same trend.
That was one of the aQ Objectives, to seperate the apostate Governments from their faithful peoples.

The Israeli may not have much longer, week maybe two. They certainly do not seem to be pressing, hard.

Perhaps later, like the US preaches abd teaches at Camp Taji, Iraq.

7/23/2006 12:00:00 PM  
Blogger desert rat said...

I did, after I asked
Operation Anaconda blog story
maybe half to 2/3rds down.
The whole thing makes good reading, tough.

The Air Force Mag. online tells it's tale of that battle.

Let us hope the IDF & IAF do better.

7/23/2006 12:08:00 PM  
Blogger felix said...

Question to any of the military experts who inhabit this blog or to Wretchard himself:

I keep reading that Hezbolah has built bunkers in Southern Lebanon and Hez soldiers (if that's what you call them) and munitions and rockets are hidden in these bunkers. So....let's say they IDF ground forces locate or encounter a bunker. Can't they blow up the bunker with all that is inside? That is, the bunkers are good protection from the air war, but don't they just become a good target once the IDF discovers them.?

Am I missing something?

7/23/2006 12:12:00 PM  
Blogger rufus said...

I'm with Buddy on this one. This was probably the Hez's most heavily fortified position. Israel took their time, got a feel of the terrain, and tactics, and took it with only 17 casualties.

They probably learned a lot. Got a feel for the battlefield, and are ready to rinse, repeat.

The next hill will be easier.

7/23/2006 12:13:00 PM  
Blogger Robert said...

I thought Nasrallah promised days ago to launch 500 missiles into Tel Aviv? He said he'd give one hour's warning? What ever happened to that? I'm sure he'd only be aiming at military targets! Lying murderous whining jerk.

7/23/2006 12:19:00 PM  
Blogger trish said...

Better or worse, Rat, it's a tough operation.

But I'd take tough over nutty and pointless (Stratfor's "armored thrust") any day.

7/23/2006 12:23:00 PM  
Blogger trish said...

It's the type of operation, tony. You bring in your air, your Rangers and SO, starting high and working your way down into a sweep.

If Israel didn't have guys up north from the beginning for this type of work, I'll eat my hat.

7/23/2006 12:36:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

12:19 PM Knock it off Robert!
We hold the IDF accountable here, NOT NOT Nastyrullah.
MSM Rules.

7/23/2006 12:40:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

"not"

7/23/2006 12:41:00 PM  
Blogger Starling David Hunter said...

Doug said..."U.S. Plan Seeks to Wedge Syria From Iran" 8:37 PM

Doug, had to smile when I heard this for it conjured up images of Condeleeza Rice giving Baby Doc Assad one wicked "wedgie".

7/23/2006 12:46:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

:-)
He already looks goofy-goosed enough!
---
Maybe we should call him Baby 'Rat on this forum.

7/23/2006 12:53:00 PM  
Blogger Buddy Larsen said...

Granted all that, rat, a victory still beats a moral victory, in the showdown.

And the 'week' that makes your case, may be a false premise.

Israeli spokesmen are all over the tv leading with "there is no timetable".

Meaning, the rules (outcry/UN/sponsors cause cease-fire) have changed? Just as they said on Day 1?

7/23/2006 12:55:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Condi and GWB have done a better job of not rushing in prematurely (ever) than anyone in recent or not so recent memory.

7/23/2006 12:56:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

12:55 PM,
St Petersburg was a return to great perfomances by GWB.
Let's hope it rubs off on him!

7/23/2006 12:58:00 PM  
Blogger trish said...

If they're tunneled-in in the south, they're tunneled-in in the north.

7/23/2006 01:03:00 PM  
Blogger Buddy Larsen said...

Another thing, re Ralph Peters' point about a split between people and leaders in KSA, Egypt, UAE. How much of a split? Why would the leaders (clerical & otherwise) stick their necks out dangerously far, for Israel? Something there, I just don't get--unless the simple explanation obtains: "time for a terrorist clusterf**k".

7/23/2006 01:03:00 PM  
Blogger Starling David Hunter said...

On a more serious note, according to several reports, Iran is calling for a boycott of "Zionist" products. From the Times of Oman:

"Pepsi stands for 'Pay Each Penny to Save Israel", viewers in the Islamic republic have been warned in an oft-repeated three-minute infomercial on state television, prompted by Israel's ongoing assault against the Palestinian territories and Lebanon.

"McDonalds, Timberland, Revlon, Garnier, Hugo Boss, Tommy Hilfiger, Calvin Klein and L'Oreal are only some of the firms which belong to the Zionist regime," state television said, before taking a swipe at what it said were less vigilant Arab nations.

"Unfortunately most of the streets of Arab nations are filled with commercials which advertise Israeli products. For each purchase, the money is converted into bullets piercing the chests of the Lebanese and Palestinian kids," it fumed.



A few comments on this and related articles in a post entitled "No Fries with that, Sheikh?"

7/23/2006 01:04:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Just remembered:
Yon has two Israeli pieces:

Michael Yon interviews Israeli Yigal Zur

2 Million not sleeping in own beds, all of Haifa North.

Jihad - The lust for self-destruction and someone to blame

This is what reminded me:
"Prime Minister Ehud Olmert told French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy that "a million Israelis are living for 11 days now in bomb shelters in northern Israel. The situation is similar to one in which sven million French people in cities like Lyon or Toulouse would be forced to live in bob shelters due to the threat of missiles launched by a terrorist organization. Would France be willing to accept such a situation?"
---
Inside 9-11

7/23/2006 01:06:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Starling,
Did you see my 9:29 PM?
Amazing piece by the Times that reads like Ledeen re
"The Iranian Street"

7/23/2006 01:11:00 PM  
Blogger Buddy Larsen said...

Wow--Fox just broadcast KSA Foreign Minister on the steps of the White House, in full Bedou headgear and robes, telling the press that "the government of Lebanon is the problem, and everybody who wants to help should know that". Oh, boy, the Turd of Tehran ain't gonna like that!

7/23/2006 01:16:00 PM  
Blogger Starling David Hunter said...

Doug said..." Starling, Did you see my 9:29 PM? Amazing piece by the Times that reads like Ledeen re "The Iranian Street"

Yes, I did see that, it inspired my post. It's after midnight in Dubai. signing off now. cheers.

7/23/2006 01:23:00 PM  
Blogger trish said...

Well then, Buddy, we have to wonder why the KSA foreign minister, like the Israeli cabinet, is not singing our song, which goes something like this:

The Lebanese government is not the problem

The problem is Hezballah and Syria.

We think everyone's on the same sheet of music but from the beginning this has not been the case.

7/23/2006 01:25:00 PM  
Blogger rufus said...

I heard him say that the problem is that "The government of Lebanon cannot control it's territory."

But, I'll be honest, I'm having a hard time distinguishing between the "government" of Lebanon, and "Hezbollah."

7/23/2006 01:31:00 PM  
Blogger rufus said...

Okay, we know that you have to put "boots on the ground" to stop rocket/missile attacks. So,

What happens when the "Peace-keeping" force settles in between the border and the Litani River, and the Hez starts shooting the longer range rockets over their heads?

7/23/2006 01:38:00 PM  
Blogger trish said...

We want to preserve that govt, rufus. That much is plain.

We do, but I don't know who else does.

7/23/2006 01:39:00 PM  
Blogger Buddy Larsen said...

Well, I didn't sift it that fine, I was just glad to see the lack of moral equivalency, or worse, the blaming of the Zionists. That's the sign of the journey made. The rest is atmosphere, compared to it.

7/23/2006 01:42:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

1:38 PM rufus:
That's why Syria should have been dealt with long ago.
Could start with Baby's Airport Now, unless he wants to come to an
"agreement" acceptable to GWB.

7/23/2006 01:58:00 PM  
Blogger rufus said...

Good point, Buddy. That was the important takeaway.

7/23/2006 02:00:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

1:42 PM Buddy,
I like 'Rat's way of looking at the Sauds:
Think FDR and Stalin.

7/23/2006 02:00:00 PM  
Blogger allen said...

Tell me that this is not going to turn into the Coalition of the Shilling.

The AP has a headline and a quote that are troubling, especially with Dr. Rice off to the ME.

“Saudis ask Bush to intervene in Mideast”

"We are requesting a cease-fire to allow for a cessation of hostilities,"

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060723/ap_
on_go_pr_wh/us_
mideast_69;_ylt=Amq7YbnY1Gey
HSQVjbiVxHQUvioA;_
ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlY
wMlJVRPUCUl

And I want to be the first to say, today, "Shame! Shame! Shame! I’m counting."

7/23/2006 02:10:00 PM  
Blogger Buddy Larsen said...

Israel beginning to dictate terms (from Fox, now): NATO, not UN, in the buffer zone, and EU observers at all ports and crossing points from Syria into Lebanon--to monitor what is being shipped in.

7/23/2006 02:10:00 PM  
Blogger Buddy Larsen said...

Allen, watch for the statements themselves--from KSA. So far, the request--made with Condi already en route--is for USA to "intervene in the crisis". The private letter from King to president, delivered by KSA FM, was said to contain a request for a cease-fire if at all possible. The body language of the photo-op and the demeanor of the KSA FM, all went out of their way to signal comity between White House and Kingdom. IMHO.

7/23/2006 02:16:00 PM  
Blogger rufus said...

I figure he had to say that. My bet is a lot of people are saying one thing for public consumption, and something else in private.

7/23/2006 02:20:00 PM  
Blogger trish said...

Now we need 2164th to remind us of what he apparently forgot or never knew: NATO is the US.

7/23/2006 02:21:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

rufus 2:20 PM,
People say the damndest things when they're trying to stay in power.
Or Alive.

7/23/2006 02:24:00 PM  
Blogger allen said...

buddy,

Was it something I said?

Our friend khalid comes to Belmont and offers to share some pornographic pictures of mutilated and murdered children, origin unknown.

I agree with khalid that the consequences of war are all too often unfair and brutal.

Then, I ask the guy one simple question and !Puff!, he’s gone.

Good grief, all I said was, “Is Hezbollah a terrorist organization?”

It’s not like I asked something embarrassing, like, “Do you prefer your goat well done or on-the-hoof?”

7/23/2006 02:26:00 PM  
Blogger Buddy Larsen said...

Allen, maybe Terror, Inc. is running into the Law of Diminishing Returns--having created so many images of blown-up humans, the shock value has gone down?

7/23/2006 02:32:00 PM  
Blogger Db2m said...

DR +12, think maybe Condi will grant Olmert an extension, say to DR +14 +Sigma?

Debka [usual disclaimer here] reports US transports are re-supplying IDF. Anyone care to comment on that?

Wretchard, this quibbling about post limits is eating up the thread. Why not change the policy, and crank out 2 threads per post...it's not that you need sleep or anything like that!

Terrisita, most of the old guy bloggers don't post a photo, so maybe they should get more posts?

7/23/2006 02:34:00 PM  
Blogger rufus said...

Allen, when did all this go down? I can't find it on the thread.

7/23/2006 02:38:00 PM  
Blogger allen said...

rufus,

Sorry. It was the previous thread.

"Israel Begins the Ground Campaign"

khalid 9:16 PM

7/23/2006 02:47:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Allen 10:26 AM,
I heard somewhere that some of the Katushas are set off with timers:
Saves gas for bikes and Hezzie lives.
Timer Control for South Lebanon!
When Timers are outlawed, only Hezzies will have Timers!

7/23/2006 02:48:00 PM  
Blogger Buddy Larsen said...

Allen, Khalid may've tripped over the imbedded charity/civic functions of the organization. The "Yes, but" loop.

7/23/2006 02:56:00 PM  
Blogger Buddy Larsen said...

MS-13 could do the same--car bomb a few United Way execs, and then get invited to join United Way. How could the cops attack United Way?

7/23/2006 02:59:00 PM  
Blogger rufus said...

Ken McCracken, at Willisms says the "Lebanese Capital" of Bint Jubayl is the next target.

7/23/2006 03:01:00 PM  
Blogger allen said...

buddy larsen, 2:56 PM

buddy,

Only the morally challenged West and its Islamofascist enabling MSM could be taken in by the “militant” arm and “charitable” arm dichotomy.

Yeah, can’t you just see some guy showing up in court to argue that while his charitable arm fed and clothed his wife, his militant arm beat her routinely; but, not to worry, he would work with the court to bring that renegade arm under control.

Of course, it goes without much more comment that only Israel is expected to buy into this nonsense. How long do you think Mr. Bush would have remained in office after 911 had he tried to sell such rubbish to the American public?

“Stupid is as stupid does.” – Forrest Gump

7/23/2006 03:08:00 PM  
Blogger trish said...

Not Our War, 2164th?

And yet you want to bring NATO into it.

7/23/2006 03:08:00 PM  
Blogger bobalharb said...

I'd think the Bekaa Valley would be more a trap by Hezbollah for Israel, unless Syria were dealt with so the Hezzies couldn't be resupplied.Look at all those hills around there. I wouldn't want to be sitting on the valley floor with stuff raining down from above. Israel would have to occupy the valley and the high ground too. Habu's suggestion to use MOABs or nukes makes sense to me, or stay out. But without going further north past the Litani how do you ever stop the lobbing of missles over the peace keepers?

7/23/2006 03:19:00 PM  
Blogger just a marine said...

The World in Collision article after 5 days

Events in Mumbai, Chechnya, Bosnia, Thailand, Bali, the Philippines and Denmark have nothing more to do with Israel. They have everything to do with the three strains: Wahabism, Iranian radical Islamism and Pakistani-Islamic nationalism. We may argue whether it is just those three. But the point is that the world crisis is no longer about Israel's existence. (From wretched in the Belmont Club blog).

I am unhappy to report the world is still as I predicted (guessed), and now what is going to happen. Of course, I will miss many events, and even be wrong on major events.

That the world war between islamofascists and the rest of the world is underway, albeit 4 to 5 years too early, is happening. The Iranians and Hezbollah screwed up on the timing.

I still do not want to convert to Islam and have them be my leaders. I am ready to fight for my families and way of life. By fighting I mean the normal way, with my life and my families progeny who can also fight.

It is hard to believe in my lifetime I can even write this way. But these are what I perceive as the facts I have to deal with.

I like to read. Most of instant pundits on military stuff are reverb orators. People like me who have been in the military (20 years) can smell out the difference between experience and theory and good writing.

I like to read, again. Most of the political pundits are well intentioned, seem to be anti-western, and poorly read as to history. Very few are original thinkers, and investigative reporters. These people, the original thinkers and investigative reporters, I do read. How else can one learn to one’s satisfaction?

7/23/2006 03:25:00 PM  
Blogger allen said...

rufus; 3:01 PM

Great link and the best internet map I have seen, to date!

Did you catch the part about Israel leading its attack with the Druze battalion? That is just so wrong. Ha! Ha! Ha! Talk about delicious irony.

7/23/2006 03:46:00 PM  
Blogger rufus said...

Every fiber in my gut says they're not going up the Beqaa.

Every Neuron in my brain says they would be crazy not to.

And, we won't know for a week. Dang.

7/23/2006 04:03:00 PM  
Blogger Buddy Larsen said...

nice post, just a Marine. Somehow made me think of the 23rd Psalm. Dunno why.

7/23/2006 04:10:00 PM  
Blogger trish said...

Rufus,

Why in heaven's name would they not already be in the Bekaa?

7/23/2006 04:18:00 PM  
Blogger trish said...

This is no fun, frankly.

7/23/2006 04:25:00 PM  
Blogger For Freedom said...

The truth about Iran:

Iran buys time


What is the US waiting for?

To paraphrase Cato the Elder during the Punic Wars when he would finish every one of his speeches to the Senate of Rome:

"Iran esse delendam"

We must destroy Iran.
We must destroy Iran.
We must destroy Iran.

7/23/2006 04:51:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Since I've Already discussed BLACK HELICOPTERS on this thread, I'll go ahead and post a link to the council of evil, which has many other good links.

7/23/2006 05:18:00 PM  
Blogger For Freedom said...

Intriguing post.

Lame comments within:

"...By failing to rein in Israel's military campaign against Lebanon, the United States is damaging its own interests and reputation in the region and making Israel more insecure, writes Muqtedar Khan of the Brookings Institution."

How laughable! What reputation are we damaging?

Rome. Cato the Elder. "Cartaginem esse delendam"

Fast-forward Cato:
We must destroy Iran!
Repeat: We must destroy Iran!

7/23/2006 05:32:00 PM  
Blogger allen said...

trish,

Why aren't they already in the Bekaa?

a) that was never the plan (can you say insane or criminally negligent)

b) the Coalliton is waiting on Syria to show which side it will take (as if Syria hasn't made that abundantly clear over the past 4.5 years.

Personally, in my humble opinion, it is almost always a fatal error to permit the adversay to choose the order of battle. Some folk, as you may have noticed, already believe that has happened recently.

7/23/2006 05:36:00 PM  
Blogger trish said...

No, allen, they're already in the Bekaa, if for nothing more at this point than target painting.

7/23/2006 05:44:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Beats Paintball.

7/23/2006 05:47:00 PM  
Blogger SarahWeddington said...

The IDF obviously has some plan but it's not apparent to me.

This is the same IDF that mobilized in 24-48 hrs and took on the Syrians and the Egyotians at full bore.

So far, in two weeks, aside from air strikes, they haven't really done much.

That we've heard of at least.

Where's the Mossad units taking out Hezbollah leaders?

Where's the vaunted armored corps that decimated the Syrians on the Golan and the Egyptians in the Sinai?

No landings north of Sidon or Tyre?

It sounds like they're going cautious and slow. Too slow perhaps.

7/23/2006 06:01:00 PM  
Blogger trish said...

Beats Paintball.

5:47 PM

Sure does.

7/23/2006 06:03:00 PM  
Blogger 2164th said...

trish said...
Now we need 2164th to remind us of what he apparently forgot or never knew: NATO is the US.

cute trish,

Anyone who was actually part of NATO,and spent any time in Germany which was a virtual arsenal or part of either TAC or SAC knew that England was a forward deployed aircraft carrier. Listening posts and trip wires were stretched from Turkey through to Iceland, Greenland and Canada. Any ordinary fool knew that the advantage of being forward deployed and able to engage an enemy in territory other than your own would not make such an uninformed and stupid statement. I guess that rarifies you and distinguishes you from being just ordinary.

7/23/2006 06:18:00 PM  
Blogger What is "Occupation" said...

It sounds like they're going cautious and slow. Too slow perhaps.


or maybe not...

the slow pace has allowed hundreds of thousands of civilians to leave, once these towns, villages and such are empty of innocent civilains, the gloves can and will come off.

by allowing hez to shoot 160 rockets a day has shown the world israel is not shooting unarmed civilians, and even though today it's not in the press, tomorrow it will be, hez's 13,000 rockets, just wait until the bekka.

7/23/2006 06:23:00 PM  
Blogger PeterBoston said...

Watching the IDF sit on their ass while rockets fall on population centers can mean either that there's a doozy combat plan just ahead, or that the political leadership doesn't have the stomach for combat.

The former is puzzling the latter fatal.

7/23/2006 06:26:00 PM  
Blogger enscout said...

Israel has already demonstrated that they are capable of dismantling the Hez fortifications conventionally if given time. They will suffer losses but marginally as long as they don't get sloppy.

I believe that the US role should be to hamstring the non-players & give the IDF/IAF the time it needs to take this thing to its rightful conclusion while helping with logistics/supply, intel & generally covering their backside from Syria & Iran.

BTW - y'all stop bickering about the 2-post rule. It's uncouth.

7/23/2006 06:27:00 PM  
Blogger trish said...

Funny, 2164th, I wasn't TRYING to be cute.

But it's a very interesting response, all things considered.

7/23/2006 06:33:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

:-)
:-(
What's the icon for confused AGAIN?
Maybe my Avatar should be that laughing/crying clown dude.

7/23/2006 06:36:00 PM  
Blogger Buddy Larsen said...

:-\

7/23/2006 06:42:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Nik:
Shiite Head

7/23/2006 06:43:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

WYMIN - CAN'T GET ALONG W/O THEM...
War or no war, human history shows that unless the Arabs change their attitudes towards women, they have no hope in hell of developing into healthy and strong societies that can produce good managers and mentally balanced leaders.

7/23/2006 06:48:00 PM  
Blogger rufus said...

Remember: A Plan is just a list of things that ain't gonna happen, anyway.

The Israelis had a Plan: They were going to use Airpower, and Communications to do immense damage to Hezbollah personnel and infrastructure.

It didn't come true. They're confused. The Hawks oversold their plan, now the Doves are saying "hold on a minute."

As of right now, they probably haven't called up enough people to carry out the bare minimum that we've discussed. There's no way they could go North of the Litani with the meager call-ups they've initiated. They probably can't control the area S of the Litani with what they've got.

I think a lot of people, me included, are going to be very disappointed with the outcome of this adventure.

7/23/2006 06:52:00 PM  
Blogger bobalharb said...

That's what I think Rufus--they're not going much further because they haven't called up enough troops to do it.

7/23/2006 07:03:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Here we go again, huh?
Whatever happened to,
Fighting to *Win* Wars?
---
Anonymous : 11:22 PM
Has a pretty interesting comment at my "Wymins" link just above.
---
I think you're right about the call-ups.
Not enough regulars, either?
Yoni should be back soon and interesting.

7/23/2006 07:07:00 PM  
Blogger rufus said...

Everybody likes "free money," Doug.

You get locked in a room with an Air Force General and a computer nerd, and before you can get free, they'll have you convinced that if you'll just give them a squadron of the "New" fighter planes, and a couple of them "new" bombers with all the computeromical gadgets, and radars on it you'll never have to put a man in combat, again.

Well, it just ain't true, but every generation has to pay this piper, and this time around it was Israel's turn to pick up the check.

7/23/2006 07:17:00 PM  
Blogger allen said...

peterboston; 6:26 PM

Apropos your post, you may be, as was I, taken by the prescience of a hypothetical Israeli high-commission report, written by Ari Shavit.

Do note, on other occasions I have found Mr. Shavit to be almost pathologically naive. See TigerHawk:

"The most just war" in Israel's history
By TigerHawk at 7/18/2006 12:01:00 AM

7/23/2006 07:22:00 PM  
Blogger allen said...

peterboston,

Well, duh. Sorry for the lapse.

"The war of 2006: Report of the commission of inquiry"

http://www.haaretz.com/
hasen/spages/740948.html

7/23/2006 07:30:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Mideast Moonbat Gideon Levy
Stop now, immediately.
A Jewish Murtha!

7/23/2006 07:34:00 PM  
Blogger Red River said...

"I'd think the Bekaa Valley would be more a trap by Hezbollah for Israel"

Nope.

Hezbollah runs into the Bekaa Valley. Isreal sets up firebases with arty that can range all of the Bekaa. Isreal sets up PLT sized laagers on the high points and inserts SR teams and drones.

It then inserts a BN or two into the valley floor. Hezbolla takes the bait and attacks the troops in the Bekaa floor. It then becomes a mathematical process of find, shoot, kill.

The problem with Anaconda is that it did not have a psychological component - setting up the US Ground forces in the Shahi Kot as BAIT - then using the SR Teams to pound the Taliban when they came out to fight. This is what the operation Anaconda turned into.

A more complete Anaconda plan would have had the BAIT used as well as SR sniper teams of PLT size set up on the escape routes.

In general, US Forces need to start thinking like Andrew Jackson - use bait to find, fix, and kill the enemy. When Jackson could not kill Osceola, he called a "peace meeting" and attacked when Osceola showed up.

The same can be said for thinking like the Mongols. Act like you are losing, open a gap in your lines, let the enemy run out, then attack then while they are strung out and thinking they are home free.

7/23/2006 07:35:00 PM  
Blogger rufus said...

Guys, the Israeli troops looked pretty sorry when they came back in last night. They looked like they had spent 6 months at Khe Sanh, not 2 days in Lebanon.

They don't need a Jackson, they need a Patton. I'm afraid that's the problem with relying on calling up "Citizen Soldiers." They're not, by and large, very good soldiers. They learn, but these guys don't have "time" to learn.

They look like they're out of shape. They were exhausted after a couple of days in the field. Contrast them with our guys. The difference is night and day. I'm not seeing discipline, and Esprit de Corps.

It's not the soldiers' fault. I think the Command structure has overlooked the Infantry. Especially, the training. It's part of the belief in machines.

This is just the first war of this sort that they will fight. They'll do better next time.

Of course, I'm probably just having a DR moment. We can only hope.

7/23/2006 07:55:00 PM  
Blogger UnemployedCapitalist said...

Oh man, DR, you gonna become a cliche'?

As all have covered the geography, formation, Arty, air and ground tactics, I call for analyzing the war from the HA perspective.

Haven't heard too much about the assymetrical aspect of the HA. I'm interested in what the enemy will do.....

7/23/2006 08:03:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Honest John Kerry
"If I was president, this wouldn't have happened,"
said Kerry during a noon stop at Honest John's bar and grill in Detroit's Cass Corridor.
---
"We have to destroy Hezbollah"
OK...
---
---
---
"Doc, I need a Placebex!"
doc:
"DR Moment"
?

7/23/2006 08:10:00 PM  
Blogger rufus said...

Thing about DR is,

he's right more often than we (some of us, anyway) give him credit for.

7/23/2006 08:12:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Yeah, but ignorance is BLISS!

7/23/2006 08:13:00 PM  
Blogger rufus said...

I gotta be the most BLISSFUL SOB alive.

7/23/2006 08:15:00 PM  
Blogger rufus said...

The only way I could be "More" Blissful would be to be asleep, and I'm going to fix that right now. G'nite all.

7/23/2006 08:17:00 PM  
Blogger What is "Occupation" said...

breaking lebonese tv news about HA rockets:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M-nipIdnU6k&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fbetbender%2Eblogspot%2Ecom%2F2006%2F07%2Flebanese%2Dtv%2Dsatire%2Dskewers%2Dhizbullah%5F22%2Ehtml

7/23/2006 08:25:00 PM  
Blogger 2164th said...

Offered without further comment:

Nato-led force could be the answer, admits Israeli defence chief
By Isambard Wilkinson in Jerusalem

(Filed: 24/07/2006)

Israel's defence minister, Amir Peretz, yesterday endorsed the deployment of an international force, possibly led by Nato, in southern Lebanon.

Israel had previously dismissed the proposal, first put forward by Tony Blair, as premature. But with the Israeli military finding it hard to impose any crushing victory on the Hizbollah militia, the government has begun to think about ways of protecting its northern border in the long term.

"Israel sees the possibility of deploying a multi-national force (in south Lebanon) with a strong mandate. The force would possibly be a Nato force," Mr Peretz said after meeting Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Germany's foreign minister."

London Telegraph

7/23/2006 08:32:00 PM  
Blogger What is "Occupation" said...

I think the two post rule should be amended as follows:

no posting more than 2 posts within the 1st 100 posts, if subject goes beyond 100 or a newer topic is added then the limit is removed.

just my thought

btw if anyone cares i am "pork rinds for allah"

7/23/2006 08:35:00 PM  
Blogger spelunker said...

"The US invasion of Iraq has so shaken and stirred the Middle East [ME] that some exceptionally strange things are happening. More importantly, these things unequivocally favor the US in influencing the outcome of the Israeli-Hezbollah War now taking place in Lebanon."

This is the operational thesis for the day HT to TCS. Through this lens we must view the current ME situation. If a new dynamic is indeed in play, then the precedential value of past approaches; the endless and fruitless diplomacy, the hand wringing, etc... no longer hold the presumptive sway. On a pure speculative and theoretical level we should ponder the initial almost alien thoughts or ratiocinative processes underway in the fresh democratic minds of those unaccustomed to the practice of liberty. Such folk must be reeling under the currents and memes invoked by demagogues of every stripe. Sure, this leaves open the possibility that a Hamas or a Hezbollah is brought to power. But when the policies fail to deliver prosperity, will this be a painful, but necessary, lesson to the voters in a nascent democracy? Or will this be an event that weakens their trust in the democratic process?

7/23/2006 08:37:00 PM  
Blogger 2164th said...

Re: Multiple Postings

I think if you are attacked, slandered, maligned, challenged, misquoted, disparaged, given the finger or have a rotten tomato thrown at you, a slight rejoinder or pithy comment is in order, expected, respected and tolerated.

7/23/2006 08:44:00 PM  
Blogger Promethea said...

just a marine . . .

"That the world war between islamofascists and the rest of the world is underway, albeit 4 to 5 years too early, is happening. The Iranians and Hezbollah screwed up on the timing."

That's the part I don't get...why did the islamofascists make their moves too soon. 9-11 was their first mistake. Iran's bragging about its nukes and its 12th imam was their second mistake. Now we expect the worst. When we go to war with Iran in a month or a year, who among us will be surprised?

The stupid islamofascists could have won through dawa and taqqiya, but now we know what that means--so we're prepared for their hudnas and lies. Dummies!

7/23/2006 08:45:00 PM  

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