The Path of the IDF
Ynet News has good coverage of the ground activity at Maroun al-Ras.
Head of the Galilee Division, Brig. Gen. Gal Hirsch, met with journalists Saturday to explain the day's operations in Southern Lebanon. ... "We took over wide shoulders of land in Yarun and Avivim, where terrorists had been launching missiles at Safed, Tiberias, Carmiel, Meron and other areas," said Hirsch, explaining the significance of the takeover. "We took over the Jaladin ridge and Maroun al-Ras, where there was short-range fighting, and additional joint fighting with forces from the engineer corps. We brought bulldozers into the territory and destroyed Hizbullah outposts along the border."
The IDF also issued a warning to inhabitants of towns in southern Lebanon to evacuate in anticipation of further Israeli operations. The towns were ennumerated, and that lets us plot the towns on the map.
The 13 villages being asked to relocate are: Aitrun, Atiri, Barashit, Beit Yahoun,Bint Jubayl, Bleida, Einata, Hadatiya, Hirbat Salim, Kontin, Kharsat a-Talab, Majal Salim, Shakra, and Yarun. In messages relayed to residents of these towns, via both Arabic news agencies and local sources, the residents were informed that anyone not following the instructions to relocate to the north is endangering his life and the life of his family. The message also stated that Hizbullah tends to use civilians as 'human shields'.
Falling Rain provided an invaluable guide to finding these towns on the map. Some, perhaps due to variations in spelling, could not be located. But those that could are at the following coordinates.
Place | Coordinates |
Aitrun | 33° 6' 56N 35° 28' 20E |
Atiri | 33° 8' 23N 35° 24' 8E |
Barashit | 33° 10' 37N 35° 26' 45E |
Beit Yahoun | 33° 10' 20N 35° 25' 20E |
Bint Jubayl | 33° 7' 13N 35° 25' 57E |
Bleida | 33° 8' 23N 35° 31' 0E |
Einata | ? |
Hadatiya | ? |
Hirbat Salim | ? |
Kontin | ? |
Kharsat a-Talab | ? |
Majal Salim | 33° 13' 15N 35° 28' 0E |
Shakra | ? |
Yarun | 33° 4' 52N 35° 25' 21E |
The map, looking north from the Israeli border is shown below. The towns which the IDF wants evacuated are marked with little flags. A pushpin marks the point where the Litani River suddenly turns West from its North-South course out of the Bekaa. Readers are invited to examine the ground in Google Earth or any similar program. Two things should be observed. First, none of the villages which the IDF wants evacuated are beyond the Litani. Second, the villages are all in central and eastern Lebanon.
Commentary
In the previous post, Mr. Atos quoted a snippet from a Stratfor report in comments. Tigerhawk has the full text and analysis.
STRATFOR 072206: The Israelis have by now thought the problem through. They don't like operational compromises -- preferring highly focused solutions at the center of gravity of an enemy. Hezbollah has tried to deny Israel a center of gravity and may have succeeded, forcing Israel into a compromise position. Repeated assaults against prepared positions are simply not something the Israelis can do, because they cannot afford casualties. They always have preferred mobile encirclement or attacks at the center of gravity of a defensive position. But at this moment, viewed from the outside, this is not an option. An extended engagement in southern Lebanon is the least likely path, in our opinion. More likely -- and this is a guess -- is a five-part strategy:
1. Insert airmobile and airborne forces north of the Litani to seal the rear of Hezbollah forces in southern Lebanon. Apply air power and engineering forces to reduce the fortifications, and infantry to attack forces not in fortified positions. Bottle them up, and systematically reduce the force with limited exposure to the attackers.
2. Secure roads along the eastern flank for an armored thrust deep into the Bekaa Valley to engage the main Hezbollah force and infrastructure there. This would involve a move from Qiryat Shimona north into the Bekaa, bypassing the Litani to the west, and would probably require sending airmobile and special forces to secure the high ground. It also would leave the right flank exposed to Syria.
3. Use air power and special forces to undermine Hezbollah capabilities in the southern Beirut area. The Israelis would consider a move into this area after roads through southern Lebanon are cleared and Bekaa relatively secured, moving into the area, only if absolutely necessary, on two axes of attack.
4. Having defeated Hezbollah in detail, withdraw under a political settlement shifting defense responsibility to the Lebanese government.
5. Do all of this while the United States is still able to provide top cover against diplomatic initiatives that will create an increasingly difficult international environment.
In response to Mr. Atos, I noted that operations in Hezbollah would also have an effect on Lebanese internal politics. It would change the balance of Lebanese internal power.
Enveloping the Hez in Southern Lebanon and pinning them against the Syria frontier also keeps them from exercising their customary power in the rest of Lebanon. This will empower the anti-Hezbollah factions. But the key to doing this is pinning down the Hez. It also has the virtue of blocking Syria out of Lebanon. With Syria and the Hez tied up by the IDF their natural enemies in Lebanese polity will be emboldened. Nasrallah can't really strut around so much after he's cut off from his main force. One unappreciated factor here is that this incursion is ironically the battle for the existence of Lebanon, but not in the way most would think. The recent display of Hezbollah firepower makes it clear that the Hez would have sooner or later become the Lebanese state. They would have taken it over. The IDF incursion makes it possible, ironically, for a consocional Lebanon to exist.
228 Comments:
Chester had a brainstorming session a few days ago on his thread "Isreal's Bek'ka Dilemma. I can't seem to format a short link here, but the URL is h ttp:// www. the advenutres of chester .com (without all the spaces, of course)
My comment suggested what may be happening, in my humble opinion.
Israel has mobilized to the extent that this isn't going to be a "compromise" solution, at least as far as Hezbollah is concerned.
And they will have option outside Lebanon.
This is intricate, set-piece fighting and Isreal is going to take it slow and careful using terrain, overmatch and firepower to grind Hezbollah down.
Armor/Infantry contests in open terrain are all about the terrain and nothing else.
Isreal has the edge because it controls the skies and has enormous overmatch.
There is a very interesting opportunity here for Isreal, but I doubt if they will pursue it.
wretchard wrote:
One unappreciated factor here is that this incursion is ironically the battle for the existence of Lebanon, but not in the way most would think. The recent display of Hezbollah firepower makes it clear that the Hez would have sooner or later become the Lebanese state. They would have taken it over.
Yet if Hizbollah actually ran the state of Lebanon and were shooting rockets and kidnapping Jews, the IDF wouldn't be doing any of this pussyfooting around with foes that eschew uniforms and hide behind human shields, dropping leaflets and trying to figure out who's in this militia or that. They would just drive to Beirut, breaking everything that got in the way.
I think the situation also creates certain diplomatic opportunities. Hezbollah has two objectives it must defend. The first is it's logistical lifeline to the Bekaa. If it can't control that, it has to fall back on its supply. But the second objective is even more intriguing. Hezbollah must preserve its political position in Beirut.
It has real enemies among the other communities but, in Red River's phrase, had the overmatch. By taking on the Israelis, with respect to internal Lebanese politics, the Hez entered into a two-front war. The resources it must expend to find the IDF it must strip from its internal security. This creates opportunities for diplomats. The Hez must at some point choose between keeping their influence in Lebanon against their rivals or continuing the campaign against the IDF.
Sectarian Cleansing, demanding entire villages relocate to places unknown, while under fire.
The people, if they flee, flock to HB refugee centers.
If HB's combat strength is only 6,000, across the entire battle space...
"Insert airmobile and airborne forces north of the Litani to seal the rear of Hezbollah "
One hundred manpads would sure make an air assualt north of the river a bit more risky than sailing off Beirut with the air defense system turned off.
At the ratios obtained by the Afghans against the Soviets, those 100 manpads could drop 75 copters.
8 to 30 troopers per copter, depending upon the model, aye.
Would that qualify for a Surprise?
The Good Captain has a post on Nasrallah Co-opting Lebanon and effectively taking control of the Government. If true, then Hezbollah can be dealt with as any other Nation State. And we just might want to tap on their door for two Beirut Embassy Bombings, the Marine Barracks Bombing and the Khobar Towers Bombing. If this is true, then perhaps a stiff reminder of those killed by Hezbollah would be a good antidote to their whining.
Let the Sixth Fleet give them a taste of a dish served very, very cold.
I do hope that Hezbollah has been unwise enough to do this... with the Saudi fatwa against them and the FM Conference coming out against them, a clear message is being sent.
The Golden Keys to opening this into a wider war is starting to shape up definitively against Iran, Syria and Hezbollah. Someone needs to start turning them, and the only one with the force to get that done sits in the WH. End this charade of terrorists as proxy for States. I do not care *who* started it or *when*, it must *end* and States be held accountable. Support Friends and Allies at War and bring in others who are willing to accept large risk for large reward. We have justification via all standards of diplomacy and need not one thing more, but more we do have.
A small and fast force, even not well trained can take out Syria once its air cover is gone, and that will be a good warm up for a CVN Battle Group. We have already proven such in Afghanistan and have much 'cred' in that doing... Syria is the weak link, break it and Hezbollah falls and Iran is fully isolated. Talk to Egypt and find if that freighter was truly owned by Egyptians and let them know 20,000 should do it to rescue their honor... especially after being told they do not matter by Hezbollah. Hit their pride and remind them of antiquity and long history. Hit them with the reality of a strong Hezbollah willing to fight all comers and interdict shipping if Israel cannot remove them. Remind them of that lovely Arab Nation they tried to form with Syria, and that maybe two stars could just be one. And finally let them know, if those things do not help, that their US dollars are about to dry up completely if they *do not* help, and will next be offered to Jordan and then Kurds... until we can get someone with stomach for this task so that those who LIVE there can end this problem with help but not have a solution imposed.
I had never thought that such an opportunity would be *given* to the civilized world by its enemies. We must take it and crack this little battle wide and shatter state support for terrorism in the Middle East. Either that, or let following generations live under worse threat in years to come... and they will scorn us for our inaction when such a job could be done far easier.
It is a fight that must be fought and we either do that now... or pay heavily and *try* to do it later. After the Golden Opportunity has shifted beneath the sands once more.
Desert -
You have to be alive to use one. A manpad, or a kaytusha, or even a rifle. For the guerilla, that means picking the time and place of the fight and having someplace to hide between attacks.
I concur comepletely with red river. This fight is being shaped by Israel with the objective of wiping out Hezbollah - which is fresh off being hosted by a nation state and shielded by the U.N. for literally decades.
We have been trained to accept "cycle of violence/peace process" as conventional wisdom instead of the horrific constructs they really are. Bad habits can work both ways; Hezbollah still hasn't accepted that there is no sanctuary yet, and are probably confident that supportive western media and U.N. condemnation will save them.
When I say we, I think I can safely presume to include most of the civilized world. Sadly enough.
I've seen Israel's suspected intentions or probable strategy equated with "ethnic cleansing" both here and elsewhere; good for F*****G THEM! If someboday took out ads they were going to slaughter the family members that survived the last trip to Sbarro's, I know what I'd do. What any sovereign state should be required to do.
What reason does Hezbollah, and all the other headcutters, exist for, when you get right down to it? I think their public objective where the Jews - and western civ, by the way - extends somewhat beyond diplomatic conventions. Everyone knows it, too. But they are just those darned Islamists and can't be expected, nay compelled, to know better. Besides, Americans are really the problem...
Syria's unconventional proxy is going to get slaughtered on a conventional battlefield, with the IDF postured to continue the fight against Iran's more conventional proxie (headquarters Damascus). The Israelis have never lived in peace. But they may be gearing up to change that situation.
Newt's right. Except for the number. This is four. And like the first three, we are going to be late into the real fight but we will be there at the finish.
The only question is the cost.
israel is spelled israel
not isreal
This is something the IDF has been discussing for several years. Hezbullah has been around since the 80s, since Iran and Hezbullah bombed the US Marine Corps Barracks in Beirut, killing hundreds of US Marines and French fighters.
Arabs always lose wars. In this case Lebanon might win very big by losing. Lebanon should sit this one out and let the IDF solve the Hezzy problem for the good people of Lebanon. Let the IDF take the trash out, and tidy things up a bit. Then Lebanon can have a real country, instead of a large gathering of civilian shields for moronic terrorist proxies of Iran and Syria.
The HB will not be caught on a "Conventional" battlespace.
They have not yet.
They've taken 10, 5 or 1 percent KIA, depending upon the real combat strength of Hezbollah
It's D+11.
I have "gamed" flying a flock of Hueys into a LZ with the avenues of approach and the LZ by multiple interlocking zones of RPGs. Thosed, fired by the dozen, turn out to be deadly
Let alone smart SAMs'
I don't know what the IDF is flying these days, but losing 12 or 15 of 'em in an Air Assualt, wouldn't surprise me.
The HB are popping out to kill tanks and that D9, crippled a ship, and continue to shoot around 100 rockets a day into Israel. They'll brave the target lock time on a copter's turbine exhaust.
I don't see this as a two week lightning war either. It will take about 1 month for Hezbollah to really get into logistical difficulties. Captain Ed links to a Lebanon Star article describing how Nasrallah controls Lebanon. If you go direct to the source article, you'll see how much of Nasrallah's effort is directed toward keeping Aoun and others out of his hair. He's giving the Lebanese government marching orders by maintaining key alliances. Those alliances are built on a compound of fear and favor. Once Nasrallah's tail to Syria gets clipped, he'll just be an annoying man with a beard.
Bill Roggio has a wonderful graphic of Hezbollahland. This is their state-within-a-state. Sumperimpose this map on the Belmont map above and think through what the Israelis might be trying. The missing piece is going astridge the Beirut-Damascus highway.
Sorry, the Hezbollahland graphic is at
http://counterterrorismblog.org/images/hezbollahzones.jpg
good stuff.
re: sixth fleet.
hmm. Given this is a "just in time" world, I wonder if the PGMs Israeli has on order are already being delivered to their final destination? It would be an ecologically (fuel savings) friendly thing to do. Consider that the "offensive act" is programming the geolocation, not playing fedex driver at 15,000 feet. And everyone knows that the Israelis are great programmers.
So it must be time for the NYT to play "I spy for the other side" again.
...It's the beginning of the end for the Mullahs.
Let's hope so. Again, thank you Israel.
The Über-Mullahs of Iran can count on the rantings and ravings of their little Adolph, Ahmadinejad. Isn't that ugly little iranian man quite a psychopath? Where are the guys with the straitjacket to bring him back to the hospital?
Evidence Accumulates that Ahmadinejad is really crazy
This is 2006.
A prepared position with a known location is known in tactical speak as a "target". Once identified, they get destroyed.
If the objective is winning, it all comes down to infantry.
It's going to cost. Doesn't mean it won't be done.
"At the ratios obtained by the Afghans against the Soviets, those 100 manpads could drop 75 copters."
---
I had no TV, but happened to be in a Radio Shack with TV on when the Sovs lost one of their last, complete with some MSM commentary trashing Reagan, of course.
---
Those were big, lumbering troop carriers:
Would our/Israeli odds be much better in something like Apaches?
"Wouldn't"
Hrm, I can see why they took the terrain that they did. Dug up an old topographic map of the border there and that is the highest ground for kilometers around. 943 meters by the map I have at Maroun al-Ras. to the south east of what looks to be the Israeli center it sounds like they took the next highest hill at 891 meters, and their left flank is probably anchored in the small town of Yaroun at 796 meters. Everything north and west of there is lower (valley) or with a peek altitude of no higher then 825. Assuming the map is correct, at least tactically, the Israeli's just took the high ground.
C-4's longbow incident was also special in that the entire neighborhood lit up with AK and larger fire, to some of our surprise.
Cellphone network, as I recall.
jim in chicago said:
Israel was just waiting for an excuse to take them down. And HB handed it to them. Israel has been preparing for this for years.
I disagree. Certainly Barak wasn't planning for this when he pulled out of the South Lebanon buffer zone, and certainly Sharon wasn't planning for this when he pulled out of Gaza, and Olmert has been all about pulling back to essentially the pre-1967 lines. The whole raison d'etre of the Kadima Party was the strategy of pulling out of occupied territories and throwing up fences.
The rocket attacks have been going on for years. Charles Krauthammer even came up with the idea that Israel could, without human intervention, lob five shells back at random positions for every rocket that landed on Israel.
What changed everything and got the blogosphere buzzing was the kidnappings, which any sovereign state, including hard-core Islamic ones, find to be intolerable. Plus the realization by even the Euroweenies that the foes of Israel, far from being a class of poor occupied victims, need rather to be occupied to justify their blood-thirst.
rufus,
There is no catwalk of that type here at Wretchard the cat's place.
(least that I've seen.)
But it IS an aussie place.
CNN Headines still lead, 24 hours later with:
"Lebanon, Humanitarian Disaster Feared"
Why?
Because Kofi said so.
nuf said, if you're CNN
Walkum, Possum!
U.S. Plan Seeks to Wedge Syria From Iran
Happy times in the comments at Landis' place:
More lies, more deceit, more cheap slogans to hide more Semitic Jewish inspired and American Christian implemented genocides, rapes and economic inhalation in the Middle East with the help and under cover of dirty Semitic barbaric Moslem traitors.
New marketing blitz by the Bush Ranch Hands to cover the genocide blitz carried out by the evil and diabolic Semites on Lebanon.
Parts of Beirut look like 9-11
Hez wasn't there was it?
You know those J..., nothing better to do but take down random buildings in Southern Beirut.
We have been trained to accept "cycle of violence/peace process" as conventional wisdom instead of the horrific constructs they really are.
Somebody once said that peacekeeping was the process of dragging a war out to its longest possible duration.
Wonder what kind of desertion rate Hezbollah is enduring now? The fanatics are no doubt overjoyed to have IDF bring the hurtin' to them. But I'll bet some are just bullyboys who joined up to swagger around in sunglasses, muscle tees, and AKs. And pick up chicks. If they've bolted now, it'll be telling to see if the civilian Lebs turn on them.
In Iran’s Streets, Aid to Hezbollah Stirs Resentment
Iran has been Hezbollah’s prime patron for decades, but many Iranians are wary of their government’s commitments abroad.
(nytimes reads like ledeen, for once!)
---
Even a figure like Ali Akbar Mohtashamipour, who had been one of the founders of Hezbollah in Lebanon, commented cautiously about Iran’s role in the current conflict. “Iran cannot play an instrumental role because of the long distance,” he told the daily Etemad Melli recently. “Besides, Arab countries consider the issue of Palestine and Lebanon as an Arab issue,” he added, suggesting that Iran, as a non-Arab nation, should keep its distance.
Whether or not Iran played a role in actually inciting the crisis seemed irrelevant to people interviewed Saturday.
Ali Muhammadi runs a small DVD shop, a closet-size booth where he sells pirated DVD’s for about $1 each. “I don’t think it’s an important issue for us,” he said of the conflict in Lebanon. “I think the government should take care of its people first.”
Apparently the Palestinians in Gaza have decided to make a deal. For the past several days Egypt has been working with the Pals on this deal.
The initiative, proposed by Egypt and discussed by Palestinian leaders in Gaza in the last few days, consists of freeing Gilad Shalit, a joint cease-fire and the cessation of the IDF's assassinations in the Gaza Strip and freeing Palestinian prisoners later on.
Apparently Hamas wants to separate itself from HB in the eyes of the intl community so will make this separate deal.
The flies in the ointment at this point appear to be questions of whether the external Hamas will agree and also whether other terrorist groups besides Hamas and Fatah will agree to the cease-fire.
This is good news for Israel if it goes through. It makes them look more reasonable, it will cool down their Gaza front, and it will place pressure on HB to release their two soldiers, although that's not likely to really do anything.
Let's say for the sake of argument that the rumor about Iraqi chemical weapons stored in the Bekaa Valley is true. What then?
Hezbollah has effective control over the Bekaa Valley; no major undertaking happen there unless Mr. Nasrallah knows about it. So, if the Bekaa Valley comes under the control of Israel, it would be interesting to discover what is found there. It may be possible to verify if chemical weapons were ever stored in the Bekaa Valley.
Just a thought.
Posted some coordinates over on my blog people can check out with Google earth: http://transitumbra.blogspot.com/
Doug, your link at 9:09
http://fromisraeltolebanon.info/
Is this a hearts and minds operation? Who would want to be associated with this?
2164th,
That, and some words by Metaz K. M. Aldendeshe, aka Michael Rossini were posted in comments at Landis' site linked above.
They, and several others, have now been removed by a blog admin.
Splitting from Hamas leadership
But the three militant groups — Al Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades, Islamic Jihad and the Hamas military wing — denied that a cease-fire had been agreed upon, saying that their rocket attacks were a response to Israeli aggression.
For all of its desperate emphasis that Hamas' leadership has a military and a political wing, Haniyeh sure hasn't been politically astute; by agreeing to brokering a ceasefire with Israel as well as the release of Shalit, Hamas has lost all credence and influence over the other splinter terrorist groups like Islamic Jihad and the Qassam Brigades who eschew negotiations regarding them as anathema.
Obviously, nobody in the right frame of mind would consider Haniyeh and his ilk to be contented with peace with Israel. It might be intentional to throw up another ceasefire plan in order to put the onus on Israel to comply yet again, with Hamas itself acknowledging and counting on the factionalism and vigilante nature of these terrorist cells to continue exploiting Gaza as a staging ground.
Haniyeh is again being his usual deceitful, apologetic self. A ceasefire would deceive Israel into thinking Gaza would be settled, and the IDF can be safely redeployed into Southern Lebanon to fight Hezbollah's conventional forces there. It would be foolish to overlook the possibility that this is merely a diversionary tactic which would serve only to dissolve the impetus and momentum of Israel's decisiveness and willpower.
I agree with Harrison.
How many truces and peace treaties does one have to suffer before one takes this for granted?
---
2164th,
My mistake:
That was posted by an "Ameen," Metaz commented on it thus:
---
At Saturday, July 22, 2006, Metaz K. M. Aldendeshe said...
Thanks Ameen.
Will forward to all the Neo Nazi's sites worldwide to disply on their sites.
Don't bother sending American officials, Congress or Christian churches these pictures, they will enjoy looking at it and hold parties. They may even show it altered in pornographic website and charge for it $29.99 per use for get rich quick plan.
doug
Apaches do not carry troops, but missles.
Blackhawks, Huey's and Chinnucks.
are all bigger & "less quick" than Apaches.
The copters the US lost, in Afghanistan during that rescue mission, were lost it was thought, to RPGs
With SAMs it's the target's heat signature, not radar, that guide the missles
By the way, the Syrians say they are ready to roll if Israel advances towards the Syrian border.
FOX also reports, almost as an aside, a desire for a NATO "buffer" force on the Blue Line as expressed by an Israeli "spokesperson"
DR, your response to " nancee" on her obsession with who had too many posts was superb. She did not have the guts to name who it was that was irritating her and your quick analysis and mild rejoinder was right on the mark.
Back OT, I think "the path of the IDF" after day 12 has been a recruiting dream tool for Hezbollah. A heavy handed embarassing clumsy inept action worthy of the Russians in Chechnya. For Israel to keep claiming it is all about the release of two soldiers is insane. As of this entry Fox is reporting that Israel says "all that has to be done is to release the two soldiers." This from the same country whose military once awed the world with "The Entebbe Raid". Israel needs to clean the clocks of their military command. They are inept.
The Israeli demand noncombatants abandon their homes, then attack the fleeing refugees.
Killing a minibus, 3 people and 11 injured, just this vety morning, or late afternoon, there.
When is an Invasion not, when Israel calls it something else.
What is is?
It is an interesting response from some of our members. When the US military half steps, missteps or walks in the wrong direction, they are among the first to advise "Staying the Course" right or wrong.
On D+12 in Israel, when the IDF and the Israeli government mimics US, these same posters think it's the end of history.
Funny stuff.
norman rogers,
Couldn't agree more.
Hope most have been disabused by now of their notions of some Lebanese sympathies, esp most of the folks in South Lebanon.
I think one of the reasons the Israelis, as well as Condi, stress the kidnapped soldiers, is that Nasrudin the Magician, or whoever, specifically made a big deal about that, saying they would never be returned unless their hero killer of 4 year old girl was released.
Thus, no deal, thus more time to root out and destroy the Hezzies before the girls in charge of the "World Community" come up with a way of once again keeping killers from getting their just deserts.
---
OT - don't miss the 94 year old baseball player.
CNN.com has video in case you missed it.
I actually was thinking of Blackhawks, 'Rat:
Aren't even they lots more agil and tough than those monster sov models.
I was pretty impressed by the ugliness of that giant in the sky coming down into a ball of flame.
...even tho they were commies.
---
Our guys in Warizistan were operating at 10k or something, in a very bad situation.
All I'm thinking is that our odds now would have to be somewhat better than the Sovs.
You did read the always informative C-4, right? ;-)
We had two blackhawks come down here:
1 was towing a hummer, and another snagged the line:
Most of the troops survived the resulting disaster.
C4's tactics for avoiding/ suppressing the manpad threat are accurate. Perhaps the HB will not obtain 75% accuracy, like the Afghans. But even at a lower rate, it'd still be a surprise, to Israel and the world.
Perhaps HB have no manpad capacity at all. I'd doubt it, but ...
Yesterday, I asked four questions, which now have been answered by Y-Net (IDF’s next target: ‘Hizbullah villages’). http://www.ynetnews.com/
articles/0,7340,L-3279867,00.
html
Indeed, the Israelis have held for days positions across the Blue Line.
Yes, the Israelis are exploiting their gains across the Blue Line as this is written.
Hezbollah has been incapable of mounting a counterattack against the Israeli salients.
Hezbollah has been incapable of launching indirect fire against the Israeli salients, despite its vaunted weapons inventory. It has, however, continued to attack defenseless Israeli civilian targets.
From the story I begin to sense the Lebanese response: We are not NAZIS, Hezbollah made us do it.
Arab warrior - right
xwraith at 7:07 PM:
Bingo! Will Israel hold this ground as it has the Golan, depriving future aggressors of these tactical gems? Let’s hope so. Who knows, in fifty years the Israelis might return the heights to the trustworthy government of Lebanon.
desert rat,
With respect, listen to yourself.
Yes, it is D-11, so what? How did the number of days become dispositive of anything?
It is always tomorrow, for Hezbollah. Tomorrow, Hezbollah will use its deadly arsenal to teach the Israelis a grim lesson.
With respect, it is D-11 and Hezbollah has proven itself capable only of doing what Hezbollah does, inflicting limited damage on the weak and defenseless.
With respect, Hezbollah is nothing more than anyother Arab clan. It ambushes small, unwary caravans and immediately retreats back into the desert to enjoy the booty.
Could Hezbollah become the government of Lebanon? Of course, but only in the same way the NAZI became the government of Germany - with the all too willing participation of the Lebanese, who accept the myth of something for nothing.
Now it is D+12, the Israeli said, going in, it'd take "a week or two".
Ms Rice is almost wheels up, the Syrians want to talk. So will Ms Rice.
The IAF has adopted "just in time" inventory methods. Ms Rice controls the export approvals.
The Israeli Defense Minister calls for NATO deployment in a buffer zone. The French, Italians and Russians have volunteered for duty.
Connect the dots
Time is running out .
Breaking the "two post rule" this one time to raise a point of order. Namely, what happened to the "two post rule" ?
The refugee count has reached 600,000 people.
Some people feel as much sympathy for innocent unarmed civilians, that happened to be born into a dysfunctional country, as they do for the civilians in Israel.
Oft occuppied and all that, in all reality Lebanon is barely a city state, let alone a real country.
Without sectarian cleansing, in the buffer zone, Israel will have no respite, regardless of the Force in place. The IDF cannot stop the inbound rockets, even today.
Same as in Iraq, if sectarian conflicts continue and intensify to the levels along the Blue line.
teresita; 6:17 AM
At 7:07 PM, xwraith made a thought provoking observation speaking to tactical topography.
At 11:55 PM, xwraith again broached the topic.
Unless someone at Belmont is willing to converse with xwraith, he/she/...may perceive a lack of interest in the topic or in the person. That might risk the loss to Belmont of an obviously bright contributor. Should the two post optimum limit, therefore, apply?
Where is that "Preparation H"?
re: norman rogers
A somewhat ominous statement made by Lebanese President Emile Lahoud in response to the mobilisation of Israeli reserve troops:
Lebanese President Emile Lahoud said the Lebanese army is "ready to defend" the country's territory if Israel launches a ground invasion.
"Of course, the army is going to defend its land, and inside Lebanon, they can do a lot," he told CNN.
"They cannot be strong enough to be against Israel on the frontier."
If the Lebanese government is truly intent on eradicating the suffocating grip of Syria on its capabilities to govern and establish a viable, self-sustaining institution, Lahoud needs to do what Jordan did to the PLO rejectionists back in '70; if what Saniora has said about the Lebanese army being "too weak to defend" themselves is true, then allow Israel to crush Hezbollah - the IAF and IDF have the means and will necessary to annihilate this scourge of evil for good.
So there's a seemingly innocuous disconnect between the rhetoric of Lahoud and Saniora, something the bloggers have missed in spite of the overwhelming coverage of events occuring with alarming alacrity. Many would dismissively wave off Lahoud's squeals as blind belief in the atrociously weak army, but what he is truly suggesting beneath that facade is the possibility of asymmetrical warfare against Israeli troops in Lebanon i.e. Hezbollah.
Why else would he mention the obvious unconscionability of Lebanese troops fighting the Israeli army at the border i.e. an open, conventional war reminiscent of '67? Lahoud secretly hopes that Hezbollah will hunker down in its civilian hideouts and draw Israeli troops into an asymmetrical war of attrition, eventually driving the IDF back and out of Lebanon. The supine nonchalance of Lahoud in allowing Hezbollah to run rampant all over the country is unarguably vinidicative of the need for Israel to intervene without being bogged down by the supercilious nature of the Lebanese government.
A thousand pardons, but has anyone been reading Y-Net this morning?
1) “Syrian information minister says country to enter Israel-Hizbullah conflict if IDF forces invade Lebanon, approach Syria border. in meeting with Spanish foreign minister in Madrid…”
2) Israeli Major General Kaplinsky tells cabinet, “[T]here are continuous attempts to smuggle arms into Lebanon via Syria.”
Without doubt the New York Times would sell as much space to Syria as necessary for Syria to declare war on Israel and by extension the United States vis-à-vis Iraq.
Would anyone in Tel Aviv or D.C. notice?
"DR, your response to " nancee" on her obsession with who had too many posts was superb. She did not have the guts to name who it was that was irritating her and your quick analysis and mild rejoinder was right on the mark." 2164th
not so much, but go ahead and comment 15+ times per post. wretchard has requested this before and was ignored then too.
rufus said...
Teresita, on the thread The Lebaneses Border you had 8 comments
Indeed, anyone can go back before wretchard made the rule and find earlier threads where the rule-followers were posting more than 2 posts per thread.
allen said
Unless someone at Belmont is willing to converse with xwraith, he/she/...may perceive a lack of interest in the topic or in the person. That might risk the loss to Belmont of an obviously bright contributor. Should the two post optimum limit, therefore, apply?
I don't think it's a good rule, in fact it's a deal breaker for me. I don't like the "look and feel" of the blog now that I only get one commentary and one follow up. So...uh...carry on.
Instapundit aimed a lot of attention at the Oct 2000 Un/Hez/IDF incident--which took place just five days before the USS Cole hit, and less than a year before the WTC hit.
Teresita, don't go, your commentary is great. Just cheat the rule, everyone else does, when they have the hots to say something. What Wretchard really wants, I'll bet, is less off-topic chit-chat, as it dilutes the value of the thread as an info distributor. But I can't speak for him--just guessing. But don't quit--endure.
Buddy,
Teresita can have my other comment on this thread for today.
I find her remarks most useful (much better than mine).
Jamie Irons
Well, buddy, a little civil disobedience is what you are calling for?
Mark Steyn writes
Meanwhile, Kofi Annan in a remarkable display of urgency (at least when compared with Sudan, Rwanda, Congo et al.) is proposing apropos Israel and Hezbollah that U.N. peacekeepers go in, not to keep the "peace" between two sovereign states but rather between a sovereign state and a usurper terrorist gang. Contemptible as he is, the secretary-general shows a shrewd understanding of the way the world is heading: Already "non-state actors" have more sophisticated rocketry than many EU nations; if Iran has its way, its proxies will be implied nuclear powers. Maybe we should put them on the U.N. Security Council.
So what is in reality Israel's first non-Arab war is a glimpse of the world the day after tomorrow: The EU and Arab League won't quite spell it out, but, to modify that Le Monde headline, they are all Jews now.
Rufus, still just as shocking, tho, isn't it. Can the world endure, continually abiding such as Kofi Annan?
Bolton opened my eyes a day or two ago, in an in-depth (that is, 5 minute) tv interview. Asked how he ever hoped to accomplish anything at the UN, he answered that he's there just to keep worse things from happening than if he weren't there. Not his exact words, but sure enough his meaning.
I had the impression yesterday that the IDF had made only a recon and pulled back across the border after s single engagement.
I am pleased to see that is not the case. Israel is holding the critical high ground on the Lebanese side and building forces on their side of the border.
If we accept that Israel is time-limited then the pace of engagement is way too slow to kill enough HB to make a difference.
I am going to assume therefore that Israel, by agreement with the US, or despite a lack of it, is going to take as long as it takes to clear the Bekaa or emasculate HB or both.
I am new to this blog but I just wanted to check it out.
Good stuff! : )
RE: MNC's post about Hez in the tunnels, perhaps there is a role for B-52's and Daisycutters in this battlefield. Like the fighters in Cu Chi, some may live thru Arclight strikes, but they won't be shooting straight when they come up. But of course, Israel doesn't have B's. Hmmm. What kind of provocation would it take to bring in the US B's? Are we EVER going to be able to fight alongside the Israelis against our mutual Islamofascist enemies?
RE: the two post limit, maybe we need a separate thread for chat, with pointers back to what the chat is all about in Wretchard's main threads. Besides bickering, the two post limit is perhaps the most damaging threat to our BC community by causing interesting posters to fade away.
For those interested in some good video out of Lebanon rather than whether again I have violated the two post “rule”, see http://pixane.net/blog/?p=90 via The Truth Laid Bear: “Video-- Pixane.net 07/23 7:25 am”
I found video "two" highly instructive.
If it is given that there apparently is an inexhaustible supply of armaments available to Hezbollah, but that the number of Hezbollah fighters is limited, should the emphasis be on the destruction of equipment or human operators?
In this video, a Katyusha launcher releases 11 rockets, one at time. After a pause the launcher is eventually hit from on high. Carefully watch the bottom of the film frame. Just prior to the Israeli hit, two individuals will be observed scooting across a road to safety on dirt bikes.
Dirt bikes! Those clever monkeys.
Lucky for them there's some countries that can build dirt bikes.
Not to drag this post limit thing on but I love this site and would hate to see anything changed. With that said, I only post about twice a month and would be happy to give my 58 post credits to others who need them.
There ya go, Wretchard--a market is deriving, based on the value of expression. Charge $5 a post--except for mine, which I work hard to maintain "worthless".
buddy,
Those Chinese, clever devils.
Selling cruise missiles and motorcycles.
All the Hizbullah cannon fodder holed up in tunnels will die there. They have taken the one way ticket to the 72 raisin dispenser.
Syria will sign its death warrant if its so much as sends one fighter plane into the arena. Syria will prove once again why arabs lose wars, if stupid enough to raise its head out of its bunker.
Israel has indeed been planning for this for many years--whoever is leader of the government is irrelevant. It is the IDF planners who are constant, year after year, and who keep the planning on target. If the superfluous details of the hardware and manpower allocation alters with elections, the war planners can improvise.
Just heard on FOX that Iran was sending 1,000 lives to the Bekaa Valley
Revolutionary Guards, she said.
I think I heard that.
This is a curious twist indeed. Israel suggests the civilians in the area to evacuate, and it becomes "sectarian cleansing". I can only foresee, but if Israel did things in the old fashion; that is destroying the targets that need to be destroyed without concern for collateral damage, it would be genocide. Or is there anything about Israel that will escape this kind of criticism?
The Bekaa Valley is a trap for Hezbollah. It has Operation Anaconda written all over it.
trish,
do you still have the link to the Operation Anaconda story?
Reuters reports:
"The enemy is deceiving its own people and the world by presenting the occupation of Maroun al-Ras as a great military achievement," a Hizbollah statement said. "An army using its elite forces and tanks backed by its air force that can enter a frontier village only after days of fighting ... is a defeated and useless army."
One could argue that an army which loses a critical fortress at very little cost to the enemy is at least as defeated and useless. But that's too obvious.
11:03 AM Possum,
That'll teach you, tater:
Stick to Garbage Cans.
That's Marsipial country.
If rufus gets you somethin from down under, find yoself a big Dumpster, and commence divin.
Red River, Trish,
I always enjoy your analysis of military matters, but how is the Bekaa like Operation Anaconda? The enemy forces are going to much larger and better equipped, the terrain is much lower and simpler, etc. Or maybe you are referring to the fact that the good guys underestimated the enemy in Anaconda at first? Or, the vastly disproportionate casualty count favoring the good guys? I'm not getting the analogy.
11:41 AM Larsen,
You missed the point:
The Israelis are screwed because they are so superior.
Muslim logic.
11:49 AM Tony,
We could take turns asking what Trish means when she gets obscure and minimalist with her clues:
That way we'd only look half as stupid to her maybe?
They are not an Army, buddy, not a State.
Just a rag tag bunch of Terrorists.
Held off the IDF for 12 days, so far. Now has limited the IDF to a 2.5 mile (aprox) Incursion.
At the beginning the Israeli "Goal" was HB's "destruction" now it is to be "disarmed".
Better than Eygpt or Syria ever did, in all the previous Wars and Battles. HB has lost less. The strongest of the acceptable horses.
Ralph Peters wrote that while the KSA and Arab League have sided against HB, their peoples have not. The NYTimes mentioned the same trend.
That was one of the aQ Objectives, to seperate the apostate Governments from their faithful peoples.
The Israeli may not have much longer, week maybe two. They certainly do not seem to be pressing, hard.
Perhaps later, like the US preaches abd teaches at Camp Taji, Iraq.
I did, after I asked
Operation Anaconda blog story
maybe half to 2/3rds down.
The whole thing makes good reading, tough.
The Air Force Mag. online tells it's tale of that battle.
Let us hope the IDF & IAF do better.
Question to any of the military experts who inhabit this blog or to Wretchard himself:
I keep reading that Hezbolah has built bunkers in Southern Lebanon and Hez soldiers (if that's what you call them) and munitions and rockets are hidden in these bunkers. So....let's say they IDF ground forces locate or encounter a bunker. Can't they blow up the bunker with all that is inside? That is, the bunkers are good protection from the air war, but don't they just become a good target once the IDF discovers them.?
Am I missing something?
I thought Nasrallah promised days ago to launch 500 missiles into Tel Aviv? He said he'd give one hour's warning? What ever happened to that? I'm sure he'd only be aiming at military targets! Lying murderous whining jerk.
12:19 PM Knock it off Robert!
We hold the IDF accountable here, NOT NOT Nastyrullah.
MSM Rules.
"not"
Doug said..."U.S. Plan Seeks to Wedge Syria From Iran" 8:37 PM
Doug, had to smile when I heard this for it conjured up images of Condeleeza Rice giving Baby Doc Assad one wicked "wedgie".
:-)
He already looks goofy-goosed enough!
---
Maybe we should call him Baby 'Rat on this forum.
Granted all that, rat, a victory still beats a moral victory, in the showdown.
And the 'week' that makes your case, may be a false premise.
Israeli spokesmen are all over the tv leading with "there is no timetable".
Meaning, the rules (outcry/UN/sponsors cause cease-fire) have changed? Just as they said on Day 1?
Condi and GWB have done a better job of not rushing in prematurely (ever) than anyone in recent or not so recent memory.
12:55 PM,
St Petersburg was a return to great perfomances by GWB.
Let's hope it rubs off on him!
Another thing, re Ralph Peters' point about a split between people and leaders in KSA, Egypt, UAE. How much of a split? Why would the leaders (clerical & otherwise) stick their necks out dangerously far, for Israel? Something there, I just don't get--unless the simple explanation obtains: "time for a terrorist clusterf**k".
On a more serious note, according to several reports, Iran is calling for a boycott of "Zionist" products. From the Times of Oman:
"Pepsi stands for 'Pay Each Penny to Save Israel", viewers in the Islamic republic have been warned in an oft-repeated three-minute infomercial on state television, prompted by Israel's ongoing assault against the Palestinian territories and Lebanon.
"McDonalds, Timberland, Revlon, Garnier, Hugo Boss, Tommy Hilfiger, Calvin Klein and L'Oreal are only some of the firms which belong to the Zionist regime," state television said, before taking a swipe at what it said were less vigilant Arab nations.
"Unfortunately most of the streets of Arab nations are filled with commercials which advertise Israeli products. For each purchase, the money is converted into bullets piercing the chests of the Lebanese and Palestinian kids," it fumed.
A few comments on this and related articles in a post entitled "No Fries with that, Sheikh?"
Just remembered:
Yon has two Israeli pieces:
Michael Yon interviews Israeli Yigal Zur
2 Million not sleeping in own beds, all of Haifa North.
Jihad - The lust for self-destruction and someone to blame
This is what reminded me:
"Prime Minister Ehud Olmert told French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy that "a million Israelis are living for 11 days now in bomb shelters in northern Israel. The situation is similar to one in which sven million French people in cities like Lyon or Toulouse would be forced to live in bob shelters due to the threat of missiles launched by a terrorist organization. Would France be willing to accept such a situation?"
---
Inside 9-11
Starling,
Did you see my 9:29 PM?
Amazing piece by the Times that reads like Ledeen re
"The Iranian Street"
Wow--Fox just broadcast KSA Foreign Minister on the steps of the White House, in full Bedou headgear and robes, telling the press that "the government of Lebanon is the problem, and everybody who wants to help should know that". Oh, boy, the Turd of Tehran ain't gonna like that!
Doug said..." Starling, Did you see my 9:29 PM? Amazing piece by the Times that reads like Ledeen re "The Iranian Street"
Yes, I did see that, it inspired my post. It's after midnight in Dubai. signing off now. cheers.
Well, I didn't sift it that fine, I was just glad to see the lack of moral equivalency, or worse, the blaming of the Zionists. That's the sign of the journey made. The rest is atmosphere, compared to it.
1:38 PM rufus:
That's why Syria should have been dealt with long ago.
Could start with Baby's Airport Now, unless he wants to come to an
"agreement" acceptable to GWB.
1:42 PM Buddy,
I like 'Rat's way of looking at the Sauds:
Think FDR and Stalin.
Tell me that this is not going to turn into the Coalition of the Shilling.
The AP has a headline and a quote that are troubling, especially with Dr. Rice off to the ME.
“Saudis ask Bush to intervene in Mideast”
"We are requesting a cease-fire to allow for a cessation of hostilities,"
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060723/ap_
on_go_pr_wh/us_
mideast_69;_ylt=Amq7YbnY1Gey
HSQVjbiVxHQUvioA;_
ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlY
wMlJVRPUCUl
And I want to be the first to say, today, "Shame! Shame! Shame! I’m counting."
Israel beginning to dictate terms (from Fox, now): NATO, not UN, in the buffer zone, and EU observers at all ports and crossing points from Syria into Lebanon--to monitor what is being shipped in.
Allen, watch for the statements themselves--from KSA. So far, the request--made with Condi already en route--is for USA to "intervene in the crisis". The private letter from King to president, delivered by KSA FM, was said to contain a request for a cease-fire if at all possible. The body language of the photo-op and the demeanor of the KSA FM, all went out of their way to signal comity between White House and Kingdom. IMHO.
rufus 2:20 PM,
People say the damndest things when they're trying to stay in power.
Or Alive.
buddy,
Was it something I said?
Our friend khalid comes to Belmont and offers to share some pornographic pictures of mutilated and murdered children, origin unknown.
I agree with khalid that the consequences of war are all too often unfair and brutal.
Then, I ask the guy one simple question and !Puff!, he’s gone.
Good grief, all I said was, “Is Hezbollah a terrorist organization?”
It’s not like I asked something embarrassing, like, “Do you prefer your goat well done or on-the-hoof?”
Allen, maybe Terror, Inc. is running into the Law of Diminishing Returns--having created so many images of blown-up humans, the shock value has gone down?
DR +12, think maybe Condi will grant Olmert an extension, say to DR +14 +Sigma?
Debka [usual disclaimer here] reports US transports are re-supplying IDF. Anyone care to comment on that?
Wretchard, this quibbling about post limits is eating up the thread. Why not change the policy, and crank out 2 threads per post...it's not that you need sleep or anything like that!
Terrisita, most of the old guy bloggers don't post a photo, so maybe they should get more posts?
rufus,
Sorry. It was the previous thread.
"Israel Begins the Ground Campaign"
khalid 9:16 PM
Allen 10:26 AM,
I heard somewhere that some of the Katushas are set off with timers:
Saves gas for bikes and Hezzie lives.
Timer Control for South Lebanon!
When Timers are outlawed, only Hezzies will have Timers!
Allen, Khalid may've tripped over the imbedded charity/civic functions of the organization. The "Yes, but" loop.
MS-13 could do the same--car bomb a few United Way execs, and then get invited to join United Way. How could the cops attack United Way?
buddy larsen, 2:56 PM
buddy,
Only the morally challenged West and its Islamofascist enabling MSM could be taken in by the “militant” arm and “charitable” arm dichotomy.
Yeah, can’t you just see some guy showing up in court to argue that while his charitable arm fed and clothed his wife, his militant arm beat her routinely; but, not to worry, he would work with the court to bring that renegade arm under control.
Of course, it goes without much more comment that only Israel is expected to buy into this nonsense. How long do you think Mr. Bush would have remained in office after 911 had he tried to sell such rubbish to the American public?
“Stupid is as stupid does.” – Forrest Gump
The World in Collision article after 5 days
Events in Mumbai, Chechnya, Bosnia, Thailand, Bali, the Philippines and Denmark have nothing more to do with Israel. They have everything to do with the three strains: Wahabism, Iranian radical Islamism and Pakistani-Islamic nationalism. We may argue whether it is just those three. But the point is that the world crisis is no longer about Israel's existence. (From wretched in the Belmont Club blog).
I am unhappy to report the world is still as I predicted (guessed), and now what is going to happen. Of course, I will miss many events, and even be wrong on major events.
That the world war between islamofascists and the rest of the world is underway, albeit 4 to 5 years too early, is happening. The Iranians and Hezbollah screwed up on the timing.
I still do not want to convert to Islam and have them be my leaders. I am ready to fight for my families and way of life. By fighting I mean the normal way, with my life and my families progeny who can also fight.
It is hard to believe in my lifetime I can even write this way. But these are what I perceive as the facts I have to deal with.
I like to read. Most of instant pundits on military stuff are reverb orators. People like me who have been in the military (20 years) can smell out the difference between experience and theory and good writing.
I like to read, again. Most of the political pundits are well intentioned, seem to be anti-western, and poorly read as to history. Very few are original thinkers, and investigative reporters. These people, the original thinkers and investigative reporters, I do read. How else can one learn to one’s satisfaction?
rufus; 3:01 PM
Great link and the best internet map I have seen, to date!
Did you catch the part about Israel leading its attack with the Druze battalion? That is just so wrong. Ha! Ha! Ha! Talk about delicious irony.
nice post, just a Marine. Somehow made me think of the 23rd Psalm. Dunno why.
The truth about Iran:
Iran buys time
What is the US waiting for?
To paraphrase Cato the Elder during the Punic Wars when he would finish every one of his speeches to the Senate of Rome:
"Iran esse delendam"
We must destroy Iran.
We must destroy Iran.
We must destroy Iran.
Since I've Already discussed BLACK HELICOPTERS on this thread, I'll go ahead and post a link to the council of evil, which has many other good links.
Intriguing post.
Lame comments within:
"...By failing to rein in Israel's military campaign against Lebanon, the United States is damaging its own interests and reputation in the region and making Israel more insecure, writes Muqtedar Khan of the Brookings Institution."
How laughable! What reputation are we damaging?
Rome. Cato the Elder. "Cartaginem esse delendam"
Fast-forward Cato:
We must destroy Iran!
Repeat: We must destroy Iran!
trish,
Why aren't they already in the Bekaa?
a) that was never the plan (can you say insane or criminally negligent)
b) the Coalliton is waiting on Syria to show which side it will take (as if Syria hasn't made that abundantly clear over the past 4.5 years.
Personally, in my humble opinion, it is almost always a fatal error to permit the adversay to choose the order of battle. Some folk, as you may have noticed, already believe that has happened recently.
Beats Paintball.
The IDF obviously has some plan but it's not apparent to me.
This is the same IDF that mobilized in 24-48 hrs and took on the Syrians and the Egyotians at full bore.
So far, in two weeks, aside from air strikes, they haven't really done much.
That we've heard of at least.
Where's the Mossad units taking out Hezbollah leaders?
Where's the vaunted armored corps that decimated the Syrians on the Golan and the Egyptians in the Sinai?
No landings north of Sidon or Tyre?
It sounds like they're going cautious and slow. Too slow perhaps.
trish said...
Now we need 2164th to remind us of what he apparently forgot or never knew: NATO is the US.
cute trish,
Anyone who was actually part of NATO,and spent any time in Germany which was a virtual arsenal or part of either TAC or SAC knew that England was a forward deployed aircraft carrier. Listening posts and trip wires were stretched from Turkey through to Iceland, Greenland and Canada. Any ordinary fool knew that the advantage of being forward deployed and able to engage an enemy in territory other than your own would not make such an uninformed and stupid statement. I guess that rarifies you and distinguishes you from being just ordinary.
It sounds like they're going cautious and slow. Too slow perhaps.
or maybe not...
the slow pace has allowed hundreds of thousands of civilians to leave, once these towns, villages and such are empty of innocent civilains, the gloves can and will come off.
by allowing hez to shoot 160 rockets a day has shown the world israel is not shooting unarmed civilians, and even though today it's not in the press, tomorrow it will be, hez's 13,000 rockets, just wait until the bekka.
Watching the IDF sit on their ass while rockets fall on population centers can mean either that there's a doozy combat plan just ahead, or that the political leadership doesn't have the stomach for combat.
The former is puzzling the latter fatal.
Israel has already demonstrated that they are capable of dismantling the Hez fortifications conventionally if given time. They will suffer losses but marginally as long as they don't get sloppy.
I believe that the US role should be to hamstring the non-players & give the IDF/IAF the time it needs to take this thing to its rightful conclusion while helping with logistics/supply, intel & generally covering their backside from Syria & Iran.
BTW - y'all stop bickering about the 2-post rule. It's uncouth.
:-)
:-(
What's the icon for confused AGAIN?
Maybe my Avatar should be that laughing/crying clown dude.
:-\
Nik:
Shiite Head
WYMIN - CAN'T GET ALONG W/O THEM...
War or no war, human history shows that unless the Arabs change their attitudes towards women, they have no hope in hell of developing into healthy and strong societies that can produce good managers and mentally balanced leaders.
Here we go again, huh?
Whatever happened to,
Fighting to *Win* Wars?
---
Anonymous : 11:22 PM
Has a pretty interesting comment at my "Wymins" link just above.
---
I think you're right about the call-ups.
Not enough regulars, either?
Yoni should be back soon and interesting.
peterboston; 6:26 PM
Apropos your post, you may be, as was I, taken by the prescience of a hypothetical Israeli high-commission report, written by Ari Shavit.
Do note, on other occasions I have found Mr. Shavit to be almost pathologically naive. See TigerHawk:
"The most just war" in Israel's history
By TigerHawk at 7/18/2006 12:01:00 AM
peterboston,
Well, duh. Sorry for the lapse.
"The war of 2006: Report of the commission of inquiry"
http://www.haaretz.com/
hasen/spages/740948.html
Mideast Moonbat Gideon Levy
Stop now, immediately.
A Jewish Murtha!
"I'd think the Bekaa Valley would be more a trap by Hezbollah for Israel"
Nope.
Hezbollah runs into the Bekaa Valley. Isreal sets up firebases with arty that can range all of the Bekaa. Isreal sets up PLT sized laagers on the high points and inserts SR teams and drones.
It then inserts a BN or two into the valley floor. Hezbolla takes the bait and attacks the troops in the Bekaa floor. It then becomes a mathematical process of find, shoot, kill.
The problem with Anaconda is that it did not have a psychological component - setting up the US Ground forces in the Shahi Kot as BAIT - then using the SR Teams to pound the Taliban when they came out to fight. This is what the operation Anaconda turned into.
A more complete Anaconda plan would have had the BAIT used as well as SR sniper teams of PLT size set up on the escape routes.
In general, US Forces need to start thinking like Andrew Jackson - use bait to find, fix, and kill the enemy. When Jackson could not kill Osceola, he called a "peace meeting" and attacked when Osceola showed up.
The same can be said for thinking like the Mongols. Act like you are losing, open a gap in your lines, let the enemy run out, then attack then while they are strung out and thinking they are home free.
Honest John Kerry
"If I was president, this wouldn't have happened,"
said Kerry during a noon stop at Honest John's bar and grill in Detroit's Cass Corridor.
---
"We have to destroy Hezbollah"
OK...
---
---
---
"Doc, I need a Placebex!"
doc:
"DR Moment"?
Yeah, but ignorance is BLISS!
breaking lebonese tv news about HA rockets:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M-nipIdnU6k&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fbetbender%2Eblogspot%2Ecom%2F2006%2F07%2Flebanese%2Dtv%2Dsatire%2Dskewers%2Dhizbullah%5F22%2Ehtml
Offered without further comment:
Nato-led force could be the answer, admits Israeli defence chief
By Isambard Wilkinson in Jerusalem
(Filed: 24/07/2006)
Israel's defence minister, Amir Peretz, yesterday endorsed the deployment of an international force, possibly led by Nato, in southern Lebanon.
Israel had previously dismissed the proposal, first put forward by Tony Blair, as premature. But with the Israeli military finding it hard to impose any crushing victory on the Hizbollah militia, the government has begun to think about ways of protecting its northern border in the long term.
"Israel sees the possibility of deploying a multi-national force (in south Lebanon) with a strong mandate. The force would possibly be a Nato force," Mr Peretz said after meeting Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Germany's foreign minister."
London Telegraph
I think the two post rule should be amended as follows:
no posting more than 2 posts within the 1st 100 posts, if subject goes beyond 100 or a newer topic is added then the limit is removed.
just my thought
btw if anyone cares i am "pork rinds for allah"
"The US invasion of Iraq has so shaken and stirred the Middle East [ME] that some exceptionally strange things are happening. More importantly, these things unequivocally favor the US in influencing the outcome of the Israeli-Hezbollah War now taking place in Lebanon."
This is the operational thesis for the day HT to TCS. Through this lens we must view the current ME situation. If a new dynamic is indeed in play, then the precedential value of past approaches; the endless and fruitless diplomacy, the hand wringing, etc... no longer hold the presumptive sway. On a pure speculative and theoretical level we should ponder the initial almost alien thoughts or ratiocinative processes underway in the fresh democratic minds of those unaccustomed to the practice of liberty. Such folk must be reeling under the currents and memes invoked by demagogues of every stripe. Sure, this leaves open the possibility that a Hamas or a Hezbollah is brought to power. But when the policies fail to deliver prosperity, will this be a painful, but necessary, lesson to the voters in a nascent democracy? Or will this be an event that weakens their trust in the democratic process?
Re: Multiple Postings
I think if you are attacked, slandered, maligned, challenged, misquoted, disparaged, given the finger or have a rotten tomato thrown at you, a slight rejoinder or pithy comment is in order, expected, respected and tolerated.
Here's a Video of the Heroic Murderer/Torturer of 4 year old Girl.
Nasrallah DEMANDS his release!
---
---
Pork's Nasrallah Parody Link
If there is a cease-fire ceteris paribus,
1) Hezbollah will be recognized as a legitimate player, in clear violation of Bolton's Law: you cannot negotiate a cease-fire with a terrorist organization.
2) Hezbollah will claim victory by virtue of having stalemated the ME's foremost military power.
3) Hezbollah can rightly claim the ability to launch rockets at will.
4) Hezbollah will be able to claim to the satisfaction of Muslims that Israel's air assault was unnecessary, given the outcome.
See how easy it is to negotiate a win-win. Hezbollah wins - Islamofascists win. What a deal, and as Uncle Bernie would say, "Cheap at half the price."
rufus,
My friend, as bad as I hate to admit it, you may be onto something.
I am reminded of More's Utopia.
btw if anyone cares i am "pork rinds for allah"...
I care.
;-)
Jamie Irons
(I've gone back on my word and used my second post because Teresita, good to her word, seems to have left us.)
;-(
I care, too, Pork. I always enjoyed your livid raging!
:-D
"What the hell hath we wrought?" is the question Mark Steyn asks (he's been linked already, but this is good, & some may've missed it).
Food for the fighters!
Promethea, that is a damn good question. Many possible answers, from the obvious--their confidence is supreme--to the deep dark answer Trangbang laid out some few days ago, in a fugue-ish post on the topic ending with his feeling that their message throughout is "kill me, please, somebody kill me".
Wow! At last, I can breath a sigh of relief, if a AP report on Dr. Rice is credible: “Rice: Poor Syria relationship overstated” at http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060724/ap_on_re_mi_ea/rice
It would be just too painful to contemplate the holding of a grudge against a terrorist sponsoring state, responsible for the deaths of innumerable Americans, Iraqis, Jews, and Lebanese.
If this FUBAR works out as it well may, the State Department clearly needs a new motto. May I humbly suggest, “Can’t we all just get along?”
Fred, this is one big problem, esp since it's in the hands of what IDF is calling a "highly-trained and completely fearless" enemy.
Fred,
HIZBALLAH ROCKETS
---
I was just about completely fearless when I used to construct and launch my own rockets!
Brainless too.
My favorite was a rocket powered torpedo.
Didn't hit any Jooish Warships or Egyptian Freighters, tho.
---
...actually my real favorite were the three Class/School Clearing Volcanoes!
Allen,
---
Attacking Syria Would Ensure Cease-Fire in North
Israel may hammer Lebanon into submission, and it may deal Hezbollah a crushing blow, but as long as Syria remains hors de combat, there is no way that Israel can effect a permanent change in Lebanon's political labyrinth and ensure an enduring cease-fire in the north. On the contrary, convinced that Israel is unwilling to confront them, the Syrians may continue to escalate tensions, pressing them toward the crisis point. The result could be an all-out war with Syria, as well as Iran, and severe political upheaval in Jordan, Egypt, and the Gulf.
The answer lies in delivering an unequivocal blow to Syrian ground forces deployed near the Lebanese border. By eliminating 500 Syrian tanks -- tanks that Syrian President Bashar Al Assad needs to preserve his regime -- Israel could signal its refusal to return to the status quo in Lebanon. Supporting Hezbollah carries a prohibitive price, the action would say.
Any course of military action carries risks, especially in the unpredictable Middle East. But if the past is any guide and if the Six-Day War presents a paradigm of an unwanted war that might have been averted with an early, well-placed strike at Syria, then Israel's current strategy in Lebanon deserves to be re-thought.
If Syria escapes unscathed and Iran undeterred, Israel will remain insecure.
"The hit probability of the Yingji-802 is estimated to be as high as 98 percent.
The Yingji-802 can be launched from airplanes, ships, submarines and land-based vehicles, and is considered along with the US "Harpoon" as among the best anti-ship missiles of the present-day world."
fred,
Is *anyone* in the West anymore?
---
...now I'll have to find that Koran clip that's says God will give the enemies of Truth the rope to hang themselves.
Being good Capitalists/Globalists, we either manufacture our own, or outsource it to the Chicoms!
Al-Quran Sura 13, ar-Ra'ad, takes its name from the word (ar-Ra'ad) (thunder) that occurs in verse 13:
"The thunder praises His glory, and so do the angels, out of reverence for Him.
He sends the lightning bolts, which strike in accordance with His will.
Yet, they argue about GOD, though His power is awesome."
Allah impressed on the Believers that they should not lose heart, if He is giving the enemies of the Truth a rope long enough to hang themselves.
pbuh, of course.
Peace, Love, and Rockets from Hell.
Checked the Jerusalem Post before I head off to bed here, and I noticed they had a few blurbs about the fighting around Maroun al-Ras and Bint Jbail.
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1153291980546&pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull
Once they have full possession of this town they can go north, east, or west.
* Chabad Expands in Las Vegas;
Jewish Cellphone Ring Tones
---
All Cellphones sold in ME should be required to have some audible equivalent of the Danish Cartoons!
Nothing offensive to Allah here
Allen's link:
Rice: Poor Syria relationship overstated
"The problem isn't that people haven't talked to the Syrians. It's that the Syrians haven't acted," she said. "I think this is simply just a kind of false hobby horse that somehow it's because we don't talk to the Syrians."
---
That's the constant whine you hear at Prof Landis' place:
"We want to talk, but that mean Mr. Bush(itler) won't do it!"
If there is a cease-fire ceteris paribus,
1) Hezbollah will be recognized as a legitimate player, in clear violation of Bolton's Law: you cannot negotiate a cease-fire with a terrorist organization.
---
Allen:
In today's World, ceteris is never paribus.
"Yet Rice said any cease fire agreement would have to be signed by Lebanon, not Hezbollah.
"The last time that I looked, Hezbollah had even run for office as a part of the government of Lebanon," she said, referring to Hezbollah's presence in the Parliament.
"If there is a cessation of hostilities, the government of Lebanon is going to have to be the party," she said. "Let's treat the government of Lebanon as the sovereign government that it is. "
--
Rice has tried to walk delicately between supporting the democratic government of Lebanon, while also not dictating to its ally Israel how it should handle its own security. Her posture has frustrated numerous allies.
bobal,
I didn't get to the part yet where he explained HOW he
woulda "destroyed Hezbollah"
if he coulda,
did you?
"We Missed the Swift Boat"
by
The Belmont Balladeers.
ot
WHY we no longer have the stones for survival:
---
"Shut Up and Teach"
New Song Out Tomorrow by
"The Right Brothers"
Download Preview mp3
---
The National Education Association recently had its annual convention, where it called for President Bush to withdraw our troops from Iraq, vowed to defeat the Central American Free Trade Agreement, and resolved to educate about the need for debt cancellation in underdeveloped countries.
And you wonder why Johnny can't read.
- Malkin
A Former UN Ambassador Worth His Weight in Gold
Former Israeli Ambassador to the United Nations Dore Gold - Observations on the U.N.
---
On Ingraham, he said Kofi met with Nasrallah, and actually had Nasrallah Generals in the UNfil or whatever it was that was supposed to keep Lebanon Terror Free!
"Former Israeli Ambassador to the United Nations Dore Gold recently spoke at Harvard University regarding the UN and its role in fueling global chaos."
Our very strange day with Hezbollah
12:05 p.m.: Our car is being led through back streets to a broken-down building with five ambulances parked in front. "These are the emergency workers who respond to casualty calls when Israel drops their bombs," the Hezbollah man says. "Take your pictures and talk to some of them if you'd like." We're growing tired of what is now obviously a dog-and-pony show, but we decide to play along, and approach one driver with a few questions. Anderson asks him what kind of casualties he's seeing, but before he can answer, the ambulance beside us turns on his siren and screeches out, followed by the next ambulance, then the next.
It's a well coordinated and not-so-subtle piece of propaganda that might as well come with a soundtrack titled "Hezbollah Cares."
12:44 p.m.: We're back on the street and on cue, a Hezbollah resistance song is now blaring from an apartment. A young man on the porch dressed in black is giving us the victory sign. I look behind me and there's our Hezbollah guide encouraging the young man to lift his hands higher so our camera can see.
12:50 p.m.: Anderson is doing a few more stand-ups about our story that's quickly become less about Hezbollah and more about their crude propaganda machine when the "family" emerges from the bunker behind us and joins their friends in the street. They're laughing, talking loudly, and gesturing with their hands, mocking anger. I really should learn Arabic. Anderson does another stand-up about the group now standing behind us.
12:55 p.m.: We pile into our van and are now driving out of the Hezbollah-controlled neighborhood. It feels like we've just left a haunted house: Slightly frightening at first, but ridiculous by the end.
Posted By Charlie Moore,
Sent by Stratfor: Why Hezbollah Fights - there's no permalink, so I transferred it over on my blog
In our view, Hezbollah has three military goals in this battle:
1. Fight the most effective defensive battle ever fought against Israel by an Arab army, surpassing the performance of Egypt and Syria in 1973.
2. Inflict direct and substantial damage on Israel proper using conventional weapons in order to demonstrate the limits of Israeli power.
3. Draw Israel into an invasion of Lebanon and, following resistance, move to an insurgency that does to the Israelis what the Sunnis in Iraq have done to the Americans.
In doing this, the U.S.-Israeli bloc would be fighting simultaneously on two fronts. This would place Jordan in a difficult position. It would radicalize Syria (Syria is too secular to be considered radical in this context). It would establish Hezbollah as the claimant to Arab and Islamic primacy along the Levant. It also would establish Shiite radicalism as equal to Sunni radicalism.
Hezbollah's strategy will be to tie down the Israelis as long as possible first in the area south of the Litani River and then north in the Bekaa. It can, and will, continue to rocket Haifa from further north. It will inflict casualties and draw the Israelis further north. At a certain point Hezbollah will do what the Taliban and Saddam Hussein did: It will suddenly abandon the conventional fight, going to ground, and then re-emerge as a guerrilla group, inflicting casualties on the Israelis as the Sunnis do on the Americans, wearing them down.
Is the IAF bombing the crucial targets that matter in the Beka'a Valley? I know of the bridge that was bombed several times, but what about the labryinthesque network of tunnels? Any bunker-busting bombs in the arsenal?
If we are to prevent the IDF from being entrenched and beseiged to no end by Hezbollah terrorists in such a constricted zone as the Beka'a, we'd better utilise the IAF to the fullest. This is where air power is key.
Is the IDF considering exploiting the Beka'a - with its treacherously narrow trails and constricted routes - as a defensive fortress to create a bottleneck situation should a counter-offensive influx of Hezbollah terrorists decide to strike back in Lebanon following invasive Israeli incursions from south of the Litani north-east with the purpose of cutting off supply lines from Damascus?
Defensive or offensive, we must surely avoid playing into Hezbollah's hands.
harrison,
Be sure to read red river's comments above.
---
Like 2164th, I'd like to see NATO go in with Rummy's version of Wesley Clark in charge, and with some of our weaponry, just like Wesley had.
Deal with Syria:
That would not only improve things in Iraq, but isolate the Hezzies in Lebanon.
NATO could have more staying power, with less resistance from the "World Community" than does Israel, and really, to be fair, Israel did not bring this on themselves without a lot of "helpful" prodding from her "Allies," most notably the USA.
Harrison said...
...."in doing this, the U.S.-Israeli bloc would be fighting simultaneously on two fronts. This would place Jordan in a difficult position. It would radicalize Syria (Syria is too secular to be considered radical in this context). It would establish Hezbollah as the claimant to Arab and Islamic primacy along the Levant. It also would establish Shiite radicalism as equal to Sunni radicalism."
Harrison makes a very important point that is lragely overlooked. With one and a half billion Muslims, reality dictates what can happen as opposed to what we would like to happen. Islam is not going to convert to any other religion. Islam is not going to be dispatched. The best thing that can happen is that it will continue to be more secular and the center of authority shifts to secular regimes regardless of whether they are democratic or not. Lebanon is in pivotal state. Bombing Bierut, the most secular city in The Middle East, is about as stupid as you can get and be still be serious about winning the war against radical Islam. Syria, Iraq and Lebanon along with Jordon are or were secularly tolerant states. The two logical allies to isolate and defeat the jihadis will be modern thoughtful tolerant Muslims and Muslim woman. Bombing their cities is good for Hezbollah and every other fourteenth century Islamic lunatic.
Boy, am I confused. It is up to Belmonteers to help me out.
___Dr. Rice insists upon the participation of the Lebanese government in any cease-fire agreement.
___While some members of the Lebanese government have threatened the use of Lebanese troops against the Israeli invaders, as a whole, the government of Lebanon insistently states that its troops have not fired at anybody.
___Therefore, how can the government of Lebanon agree to a cease-fire, having failed to fire in the first instance?
Of course, some poor simple Lebanese soldiers (a platoon, perhaps) might be convinced to travel south for the purpose of taking a few shots at Israeli troops and then surrendering, as prisoners of war. Technically, then, Lebanon would gain the status of a belligerent, if its government could maintain a united bellicose front.
I must say, diplomacy is exhausting work.
A simple person like me would have struck the Syrian enablers of Hezbollah a week ago and had done with it. But what do I know?
Later posts get worse!
---
Yoni Speaks on Rice Trip
Monday, July 24, 2006 8:39 AM
America is again sending mixed signals to the Middle East. First they approved the arms sale to Saudi Arabia and second Sec. State Rice is in Beirut.
Who is she meeting with the people that have fought against Hizbullah through the years to disarm Hizbullah? Oh wait those people do not exist in Lebanon. Lebanon is Hizbullah and Hizbullah is Lebanon, when good people turn their backs on evil then they have become accomplices to evil.
Sec. State Rice has said their is no need for a temporary cease fire then what is she doing in the Middle East, she is meeting with pro Syrian elements of the Lebanese government.
Make no mistake my friends your sons have been killed and maimed by the actions of Syria and I am not talking about 241 Marines years ago. I mean today.
Weapons and terrorist still flow through Syria to Iraq. Weapons supplied by Iran and Syria.
America is not serious about fighting the war on Islamic terrorism. I am starting to think that Israel is not serious about it either. I'm hours away from going back to calling the leadership in Jerusalem the 3 stooges.
If America fought WW2 in the same way they are fighting the war on terrorism you would not be reading these words.
For their would be no Jews in the world.
yonitidi@msn.com
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
"Make no mistake my friends your sons have been killed and maimed by the actions of Syria and I am not talking about 241 Marines years ago.
I mean today.
Weapons and terrorist still flow through Syria to Iraq.
Weapons supplied by Iran and Syria.
America is not serious about fighting the war on Islamic terrorism. "
Rufus:
Latest report at the Jerusalem post says:
Earlier in the day, Golani Brigade troops, tanks and combat engineers engaged in heavy fighting after pushing their way deeper into Lebanon towards the village of Bint Jbail, branded Hizbullah's "terror capital" in southern Lebanon, located northeast of Maroun al-Ras. The troops came under attack from anti-tank missiles and sniper fire.
Sounds like the Israelis are trying to work their way around the town, probably trying to seize the next ridgeline to the North East.
Oh, if ONLY we had elected North Vietnam's John Kerry as our presidunt!
Caint Possumtater eat at 3 stories deep?
That's It!
We'll BUY the Way!
Peace through Federal Spending!
Buy Piece!
Piece Process:
Paved w/Gold!
---
I KNEW it was the J...!
...take another little Peace of my...
Piece Process Indeed!
Four skins and 20 years ago...
Tonkin Gulf's got nuthin on the
Four Skins Gulp!
WTF?
Piece through Length!
Brokeback Fountains:
Clinton challenges seniors to 'do it right'
Babbitt at 90
New buildings, new gateways
Planning for the future
Designing a ‘world-class' chemistry building
Architecture's new face
A campus perspective
To the moon, Mars, and beyond
Muldoon, arts center embark on ‘adventure'
Finding art in science Courtesy art of science competition
Five most popular certificates for the Class of 2006
Eight alumni elected as Princeton trustees
Bright-eyed and certified
FYI —Findings
Study: Students harming selves
Celebrating Toni Morrison
In brief
Former president Bill Clinton checks out his new class jacket as, from left, seniors Lauren Bush, Harrison Frist, and Shaun Callaghan and class president Chris Lloyd (at podium) look on. (Denise Applewhite/Office of Communications)
Clinton challenges seniors to 'do it right
As students from the Class of 2006 held digital cameras high to catch a glimpse of former president Bill Clinton entering Cannon Green to deliver the keynote address on Class Day June 5, a large cluster of class members began chanting "four more years."
Lauren Bush '06, granddaughter of Clinton's presidential predecessor and onetime opponent, introduced the speaker as her "grandfather's favorite new traveling buddy."
And from behind the podium, Clinton joked about Senate majority leader Bill Frist '74 "putting parenthood ahead of the public trust" by leaving the Capitol to see the graduation of his son, Harrison '06, a member of the committee that invited the Class Day speaker.
From Cluster Bombs to
Cluster .....
We don't need no stinking Terrorists!
We Terrorize OurSELVES!
---
Study:
Students harming selves.
Put those HARM Missiles back on the shelves:
Victory through SELF Mutilation!
Promethea's questions about timing of events are very appropriate.
Here are some conventional thoughts to add to all's analysis of the the current Middle East events.
Judging the other persons intentions is usually a waste of time. Judging their capabilities is a good investment of time
Iranians (Persians) and Arabs (Arabs) have a long history of friction. They've never liked each other.
The Persians are a sharp tribe. So are the Vietnamese and Koreans.
Iranians are Shiite Moslem (5% of the world's Moslem population) while most Arabs are Sunni Moslems (95% of the world's Moslem population).
One in five people in the world are Muslim. Only 15% of Muslims are Arab.
Money talks. The infuence of the Iranians is probably enhanced by their money on their proxies. So is the effect of our monies to Egypt and Israel.
Here's a sound rule in analyzing problems anywhere between Cairo and Karachi: Never ascribe to a calculated strategy what can be blamed on passionate incompetence. (This is a quote from Ralph Peters, who is pretty good, I think).
It's incredible about the national effort and waste many political leaders put into military stuff that is mismanaged.
For all, here's another reading list based on authors, not books, articles, etc. Most are passe by the media and the military but I still read them religiously since I am not politcally correct. They are:
Edward Luttwak
Ralph Peters
James Dunigan http://jimdunnigan.com/
Andrew Cockburn
Only two of the four above are from the USA, but all are original thinkers and investigative reporters.
If you have access to all the old National Geographic Magazine articles back to the the start up in the late 1880's, go read anything that seems appropriate. If you don't have access (most don't these days), try get the multi CD version they put out in the late 1990's. I used Amazon to get my reference which the USMC library in Quantico had in the originals. It is good background reading.
just a marine:
National Geo, Paper Edition was part of our son's homeschool education, courtesy of his great grandmother.
Not two generations removed, just great.
...then again, I'm prejudiced.
---
Mr Phish Link:
The Fire That Won't Go Out
The government knows that there are only a few dozen, at most, gangs involved in all this killing.
The current deal is for the Sunni Arab community to shut down their thugs, while the government takes out the Shia militias. The government has started carrying out their end of the deal, but the Sunni Arabs have moved more slowly.
This is because the Sunni Arab thugs are paranoid, quick on the trigger, and willing to murder prominent Sunni Arabs. T
he Sunni Arabs fear trapped, caught between their own radicals, and the majority of Iraqis (Kurds and Shia Arabs), who would just as soon see Iraq free of Sunni Arabs. The hatreds go deep, Saddam's decades of brutality against Kurds and Shia Arabs saw to that.
While pundits go on about Iranian desires to dominate Iraq, the reality is more about vengeance against Sunni Arabs for past sins. Nothing too complicated, but it's a fire that's very difficult to put out. Read More
HAT TIP: Wretchard
"The Persians are a sharp tribe."
Ingraham was describing the Pretzels they have bent the Euros and Us into:
All the while ratcheting up "Incentives"
While giving up NOTHING.
Going to see if I can find her source.
“Toys for Tops”
rufus,
In line with your earlier post, I thought you might enjoy this report of the DoD’s stocking stuffer for the Air Force.
The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (dah, dah) “Lightning II”
Originally priced out at $35 - $40 million dollars, it may (I repeat, MAY) eventually come on stream at $94,000,000.00 per copy.
And in the words of the Air Force Times (24 July 2006) this little beauty “has taken too long to develop [functional & structural obsolescence], carries a weapons load that’s too small [that seems a mite self-defeating] and costs too much [how much too much remains to be seen].
Add this package to the F-22 and you get, as someone may have said already, “Schlock and Ah”.
So, don't read this.
verifier word, i swear, xdspy
Wretchard's comment section has been hijacked by a deserts-rats worth of multiple Hez-posting yakkerers and chatterers despite his repeated requests for comment restraint. It is not known at this time if Wretchard's own interior forces are strong enough to disloge the Hezchatterers. He may just loosen all restrictions and permit the IronsLarsenUtah brigades to unleash multiple post and clean up with logic and reason via an incursion from the southern border. Of course the multiple postings will get out of hand but there is an opening now that might not come again; meantime the Hezchatterers threaten to bring down the works.
Developing....
This has got to be the most pessimistic assessment of -- not just this war -- but of anything that I have ever come across:
"The Islamists Are Winning," by David Selbourne
Jamie Irons
rufus,
The F-22 has demonstrated itself one heck of a FIGHTER, hence the "F".
The F-35 also may prove itself a great fighter.
Both were conceived during the Cold War to counter the Soviet.
We also field the world's premiere bombers. And, therein, is the tale.
To sell these very expensive "F" platforms, the USAF has hybridized them, seriously reducing efficiency, at least in the opinion of the Air Force Times. From an engineering standpoint, the costs of hybridization are enormous.
What plane today has the overwhelming affection of the troops on the ground? Clue: it's an "A" platform. It is a weapons’ system the Israelis would dearly love to have today.
Oh, the beautiful ugly lo-slo flying 30 mm long-barrel gatling 6000 rpm gun, with the under-armored cockpit?
rufus; 4:56 PM
You do betray your lack of knowledge of Jews with that question about a reserve call-up on the QT.
Jews love to talk. Indeed, some would say that Jews are obsessed with talking. A Jew cannot be declared dead until the conversation ends.
Just a wild guess, but I'll bet the per capita cell phone ownership among the Israeli population would be on the order of 3:1.
Seriously, while I hate to say that anything is impossible, out-of-hand, large reserve call-ups are so disruptive to such a small country that I just can't imagine it could be kept secret. To where you are going, I think, the Olmert government could perhaps camouflage to some extent a major activation by incrementally calling up smaller units on a daily basis.
As an aside, something to consider with the F-22, at least, is whether it will ever be fielded in sufficient numbers to make a strategic impact in a major war, as one with China. Working from memory, I recall an original production line of 700-800 aircraft. With the resistance of the Congress to the escalating costs ($350 - $400 million per plane) that number has been cut by 2/3, and may yet shrink.
A-10 is actually named "Thunderbird"--after the ground-attack fame of the original Thunderbird, the WWII Republic P-47.
Russia, backbone of the Iranian weapons program which our guys and the IDF deal with in Iraq and the Levant, has recently, due to Caspian operations, passed KSA as the world's leading oil producer. The so-called "terror premium" on a barrel of oil, estimated to be $15 to $30/barrel, is creating much ambition in the Kremlin.
Challenging the Dollar with the Ruple (soon to be wholly vested as a G8 currency) is one avenue of Kremlin ambition. Iran fits into this perfectly, as a way to leverage the Russian arms industry against the Dollar (weaken Dollar with war costs).
Putin was quoted durin G8 as saying he "has four times the oil and gas as the rest of the G8 combined."
The old Czarist Imperial ambition is back. Europe needs to make a certain sort of decision here, sooner or later.
You're right rufus--I just had an attack of the miseries. Ain't wurf a sh*t after 10 a.m. But, what I was getting at was, all this advanced weaponry, it could be said to be coldly calculated to keep them oil prices high and flowing that extry hard currency into the Czar's vaults. Like the Sopranos say, 'nothing personal, just business'.
That was pretty much a Captain Obvious "Well, Duh!" post, I realize. Sorry.
Yoni,
France, you got to be kidding
Monday, July 24, 2006 8:58 PM
France getting the nod to head up a "peace" keeping force in Lebanon.
France the cowards are going to guard the Jews just like they guarded the Jews in France 60 years ago.
---
More than a little upset that 'Rat's Scenario is playing out:
Burned up 2 weeks of Bush/Condi time, yet over 100 Rockets again today.
---
Official line is that they'll run out of Rockets fairly soon, what with transportation problems.
Buy That?
Give me a break.
"Give me a break"
was Yoni's line on France, but I guess it'll do just fine where it is, also.
A-10 Thunderbolt, I believe.
Forget what early jet was named the Thunderbolt:
Lightning P47 Thunderbolt.
"Larsen Moment"
DanMyers said,
"I had a link from Ynet this a.m. about a delay of reserve call-up. I was trying to depress Doug a bit more.....
I'll hunt it down. "
---
Thanks, Dan, I needed that:
You trying to get me raving again?
Don't make fun of the tards.
"peace keeper" with a French accent is
"pee skipper".
Doug, the "Lightning" was the Lockheed P-38.
Nice to see the old reliables still here - Doug, Buddy, et al.
Sorry I only lurk these days, but maybe this big @ss post will make up for it.
Habu_3 said...
the 5% and the 95% Muslim/Arab/Islamist/Persian/Korean are causing 100% of me to want to do a Curtis Lemay/Atilla the Hun number on their civilizations.
I don't give a shit about trying to understand what motivates an Arab kid to play with a dung bettle I just want them gone, vanished, taken up by the mothership or jump into the well with the 12th mahdi. They've been shoven crap at the world for centuries. We have to beat them on the battlefield every century but now the "bomb" and A.Q. Khan are all over the place and one day they're gonna ignite one of them all over us..lets just kill 90% of 'em next week..then we start the cleanup and be done by Christmas.
Habu, I'm on my way to your position. I'm beginning to think the same about the Left. I emailed the following to Pat Santy after her recent blog post "The Answer Is No" :
//////////////
Dear Dr Santy,
I spent 8am on 9.11.2001 in bed, laid up with a pinched nerve that made my right arm feel like my face after dental work.
My wife woke me by telephone sometime past 8, telling me to turn on the television. I hardly moved for the next several hours, unable to tear myself away from the unspeakable evil we all saw that day.
Our little neighborhood in xxxxxxx, XX, was directly affected by what happened. (Name), a recently remarried father of a Brady Bunch minus one, was somewhere above the 100th floor in the North Tower. He died when the building finally came down.
Today, almost five years after 9/11, I am coming to the conclusion that the Left (internal and abroad) has become nearly as dangerous as modern Islam, so much so that your piece "The Answer Is No" could have very well been written about it.
It's hard for me to believe that the Left has become so infected with BSD that they'd actually put the country at risk, but what other conclusion can one reach? Having watched the Plame affair, the NYT exposure of sensitive anti-terrorist tools, etc, it is apparent that the Left has decided that the reaquisition of power is so important that if it takes hobbling the war effort to the point that we get hit again in order to discredit Bush/Republicans, then so be it. (Scoop Jackson would spontaneously combust if he knew what his political heirs are doing.)
Today, from my perspective, that makes them traitorous bastards. Once we get hit again (and I am increasingly concerned about the possibility), then again from my perspective, this would make them accomplices to mass murder. I have little doubt that in the privacy of their foul hearts, they believe the loss of thousands more Americans is worth it if it pries the reins of power from George Bush.
I doubt that they've considered what sort of world they might inherit after a 2nd successful mass casualty event... though frankly, I don't think they care one way or another. In my opinion, this makes them even more repugnant. "Give us the reins of power," they say, "and we, enlightened as we are, will put a peaceful end to this mess."
So, they resist the war effort at every turn, perhaps to the point that those trying to fight the war become so hamstrung that it opens the door for a terrorist WMD attack.
Consider a hypothetical -
It's February 2007 - a heavily loaded container ship moves slowly up the Hudson.
At 12:10 pm, with nearby streets full of people heading out for lunch, a fission device hidden in one of the containers detonates.
The blast wave kills anyone outdoors within a half mile radius. The immediate death toll would run into the tens of thousands at minimum.
The associated EM pulse would render all unshielded electronics useless for miles around, effectively cutting off Manhattan and its surroundings from the outside world.
The days that follow would be gradually filled with images of unsurpassed horror as survivors begin to make contact with family, friends, etc.
Considering all the businesses that headquarter in NY (stock market, for example), it's not hard to imagine the entire country grinding to a halt.... if for no other reason than a significant loss of confidence in the ultimate stability of the nation. "Why," a trucker might reason, "should I continue to deliver the goods I carry if they (and I) might be vaporized in a second WMD attack? I should go home and stock the storm cellar with drinking water."
The President, regardless of political affiliation, will not be afforded the option of failing to respond in kind. Failure to hit back swiftly, and in overwhelming fashion, would only further erode citizens' confidence in national stability, while at the same time it would so inflame the population that the President would be forced to step down, or quite possibly (for the first time in history) be removed by a citizen coup.
The gloves would have to come off.
The only viable response to a nuke on the Hudson would be multiple nuclear strikes at targets of great importance to Islam... starting, for example, with an obliterating strike against Qom and against Medina... and possibly an arab capital. And yes, innocents would die... by the thousands. But it's the only "language" islamists understand.
The immediate result in the US would be a significant stabilization of the populace ("Now THAT'S what I'm talking about!" The President is taking it to'em!!!!! Maybe we'll come out of this ok after all!").
This should be followed up with a prime time television address, stating the following non-negotiables (in response to islamic terrorism):
1. If, from this moment until the end of time, a nuclear device (or some other WMD) is detonated in an American city, America's response will be to wipe three Arab/Islamic cities from the face of the earth, starting with Mecca, and including an as-yet untouched Arab/Persian capital.
2. Every islamic state, including Pakistan, will either declare their possession of nuclear weapons (or technology), or declare that they have none. Those that have will IMMEDIATELY dismantle everything pertaining to it, right down to the last hex nut. We will be coming to your doorstep to collect every last piece - have it ready before we arrive. If......... if a state declares it has no nuclear weapons/technology, and is later found to have lied, this will trigger the nuclear destruction of that state's capital city. This cycle will repeat itself until everything nuclear is accounted for.
3. Every islamic terrorist organization will immediately and completely disarm. Then, they shall disband, never to reconstitute. Leaders will be handed over to US military custody. Failure to comply will result in additional strikes against the country/countries that provide terrorist organizations safe harbor. Additionally, you will be invaded, deposed, and if not killed outright, brought safely to a war crimes trial as expeditiously as possible.
Will something like this happen? It's possible, I suppose.
This scenario could one day unfold before our eyes if we fail to crush this enemy NOW... but the Left opposes decisive action at every turn.
Yes, some innocents (on both sides) would be killed if we bit the bullet and performed a 21st century General Sherman across the arab world. However, I believe the number of innocents such an action would cost pales in comparison to the vastly larger number that would die if the above nuclear scenario actually plays out.
The Left, in its rabid commitment to ruining everything in which George Bush is involved, may very well open the window of opportunity for a nuke on the Hudson... and instead of suffering losses of 5 to 10k overseas to go with the 3,000 lost on 9/11, we might lose 100k in Manhattan alone... along with how many thousands upon thousands of muslim children who have nowhere to flee as a MIRV pops open high over Medina....
This is the risk the Left takes in its efforts to regain power... and it clearly demonstrates its lack of fitness for it.
What empty, soul-less, evil bastards. What incredible contempt for human life. What incredible contempt for Americans. What incredible contempt for America.
Is the Left compatible with freedom and democracy?
THE ANSWER IS NO.
////////////////
As scenarios go, this seemed over the top to me, even as I wrote it... but no doubt I'd have felt similarly to the suggestion that someone would fly airliners into the towers.
We will eventually win this war... but because of the failure of our government to pull together and do what needs to be done, we won't start kicking some serious @ss until a 2nd mass casualty event is delivered to our backyard. Many more will die on both sides as a result of the dithering of our leadership.
In the aftermath, someone will say "It didn't have to be this way..."
Dem brain cells gettin old.
The lightning got pasted in by mistake, but these guys I once knew so well were "muddled:"
---
F-84F Thunderstreak, F-105 ThunderChief
At least by looking them up, I learned something new:
The Mig-15 was the "fagot"
An Ace today would soon be in the hole for sure if he got caught bragging:
"I shot down 3 fagots"
Long time, no Triton.
Welcome back big bear!
Here's the short version I came up with this morning when I realized my state was altered, having had too much wine for the first time in years, figured I'd do some heavy thinking like you did under the influence of your transdentaled arm, or whatever:
---
The first two years after 9-11 were less scary than I expected.
Given the present state of play, and the played out outlook at present, the last 3 come up scarier than I expected.
---
Well, that's MY deep thoughts of the day.
Triton, I'm sorry you're having bad nuclear dreams. Somehow your being an actual nuclear engineer, with a houseful of young kiddos, makes it all the more sad. We need to find a way to win it and end it.
I keep having Patton thoughts, too. Weird.
Lightning P-47's Polar BEARS, instead of Tritons, think I better lay off that cheap wine henceforth.
(It's the thought that counts, right?)
taint much, I know.
---
"CNN says Isreal is floating the Turks as a "peace-keeping" force. Yeaaagh... "
---
Doug News reports:
"Floating Turds Is Real Navy of Future."
---
Figure I'll stave off the Gallows Humor with the Toilet Kind.
"Tiger" I quit.
I would not be so sure about the US staying on top.
The US Navy has totally ignored the genetic-algorithm born naval ships designs that ate its CBVGs and sank every escort ship in sims.
While stealth is proven in air battles, its been ignored at sea. Combine GAs with Stealth, and the US Navy as constitured today is dead.
A dozen 150 foot Stealth Catamarans, networked, armed with 20 Sunburn-type missiles and 10 SM-2 type missiles with miniaturized Aegis systems would dominate over a CVBG and its air wing. Add in Archer-11 type guidance for Stinger-type defense and two phalanx systems. Tie in mini-sats with good IR capability. Use subs for supply ships.
Now imagine 100 of the cheap little suckers in 12-boat groups.
They could do a Stealth whack on just about any US Naval Port and have enough ordance leftover to fight their way back across the Pacific.
Post a Comment
<< Home