The last to know

A bomb exploding near a mosque in the Indian town of Malegaon killed 25, according to the Telegraph. 

Explosions in the western Indian state of Maharashtra have left dozens of people killed or injured. One of the blasts was at a mosque and another targeted a Muslim graveyard, sparking fears that they are revenge for the Bombay train bombings in July. Muslim extremists with links to Pakistan were widely blamed for the July bombings, which killed 186 people. ...

Indian TV is reporting that at least 25 people have been killed, but police have only confirmed five deaths. More than 100 people are reported to have been injured. The mosque explosion came as Muslims celebrated the festival of Shabe Barat, or the Night of Fortune, when they hold night-long prayers seeking divine blessings, exchange sweets with neighbours and relatives, and set off fireworks. Malegaon has a history of religious violence, and it is understood that police riot squads are being rushed to the area to keep control.

A 2001 report from the People's Union for Civil Liberties describes one clash between Hindus and Muslims in Malegaon as sparked by the US campaign against the Taliban, interestingly enough. The report may or may not be biased, but it illustrates the bad blood between local religious factions quite vividly.

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Out of Malegaon's population of 6.5 lakhs, over 70 per cent are Muslims. On October 19, Mr. Nihal Ahmed, a former MLA, had led a morcha to protest the U.S. bombing of Afghanistan. The processionists were arrested, but later released. After the Friday prayers on October 26 afternoon, when people were coming out of the Jama Masjid, a man started distributing pamphlets in Urdu titled "Be Indian, Buy Indian", which called for a boycott of American and British products to protest the bombings. A State Reserve Police constable grabbed a pamphlet, tore it up and assaulted the man and dragged him towards the police van.

More police action followed and no sooner had the Muslim crowd been dispersed when another gathering, apparently consisting of Hindus, appeared on the scene.

The committee said it was reported that no sooner had the crowd been chased out of the Jama Masjid area that a huge group headed by leaders of the Shiv Sena-spawned Jaanta Raja Mitra Mandal arrived and staged a demonstration to protest the damaging of the Navaratri pandal. Soon thereafter, this crowd moved towards the Sangameshwar Masjid, destroying shops in front of it. The numbers swelled as it went along leaving a trail of selective destruction in their path, the report said.

Some time later both sides fell to.

From Friday evening through Saturday to Sunday, Hindu and Muslim mobs went on the rampage burning and looting shops, industrial units, powerlooms and vehicles belonging to the other community. The police opened fire yet again on Friday night in the Azad Nagar area. They claim they were challenged by a stone- throwing mob of Muslims. Two young men were killed. On Sunday, October 28, the police opened fire near the Mira Datar Dargah to disperse a mob, killing two men. All those killed in police firing were Muslims. The police and everyone the team spoke to admitted that most of the property destroyed belonged to Muslims. Apart from those killed in police firing, two persons, a Hindu and a Muslim, were murdered in the riots.

Interestingly enough, Harvard University published a detailed study of the social composition and tensions of Malegaon in 1999. The study highlights the fact that Muslims have been growing as a percentage of population in India relative to other religions both before and after Partition. Malegaon is no exception and this may be contributing to the tension. The Muslims in Malegaon are characterized as "a homogenous population who are mainly engaged in the low-income occupation of weaving. Their housing characteristics, possession of consumer durable and per capital income, all suggest a low level of economic development. Even though literacy levels are relatively high, educational levels are low." The study concludes that "therefore, it is recommended that general socioeconomic developmental programme to uplift the Muslim community should be undertaken." One of the suggestions of the study is that birth-control be encouraged among Muslims in Malegaon. Anyone who thinks the US military is tone deaf has yet to read an NGO report. It is easy to see how the tinderbox of grievances on both sides could be sparked by that single recommendation. The non-Muslims would be threatened by the demographic ascent of the Muslims; while the Muslims would naturally view efforts to encourage birth-control as an attempt to keep their numbers down. Add the attack on the Taliban and the bombing of Mumbai into the brew and look out.

Census	Year	Hindus	Muslims	Tribal	Christian	Sikh	Buddhist	Jain	Parsi
1881	75.09	19.97	2.57	0.71	0.74	0.07	0.49	0.034	0.005
1891	74.24	20.41	3.26	0.77	0.68	0.09	0.51	0.032	0.008
1901	72.87	21.00	2.88	0.98	0.77	0.10	0.47	0.033	0.008
1911	71.68	22.39	3.17	1.21	1.00	0.11	0.41	0.033	0.007
1921	70.73	23.23	2.97	1.47	1.06	0.12	0.39	0.033	0.007
1931	70.67	23.49	2.26	1.77	1.28	0.13	0.37	0.032	0.007
1941	69.46	24.28	2.26	1.91	1.46	0.12	0.37	0.032	0.006

Census	Year	Hindus	Muslims	Christian	Sikh	Buddhist
1951	84.99	9.93	2.30	1.74	0.06	0.45
1961	83.51	10.70	2.44	1.79	0.73	0.46
1971	82.72	11.21	2.60	1.89	0.70	0.47
1981	82.64	11.35	2.43	1.96	0.71	0.48
1991	82.00	12.12	2.34	1.94	0.76	0.40

Commentary

Anyone who thinks that the current world tensions were somehow caused by GWB and a bunch of neocons ignores the longer-term factors at his peril. The tensions between the Islamic and the non-Islamic world are rooted in many things: religion, education, demographics and history, some of which interrelate in obvious ways. For example in Melegaon, religious factors could cause low levels of education, especially in women, which could in turn lead to poverty, which for its part is a reliable precursor to high fertility. Or maybe the arrow of causality goes the other way around with high fertility driving poverty which in turn creates a yearning for an apocalyptic religion. However the sociology may, be it's reasonable to think that the current world crisis predated November 2000 when George W. Bush was elected. The tectonic plates had been shifting for some time. September 11 was simply the date when the ground gave beneath Manhattan.

Now that the Left has committed itself to resolving what Samuel Huntington called the Clash of Civilizations through the simplistic formula of electing a Democrat to the White House and withdrawing from history -- beginning with Iraq -- the factors underlying a world tragedy are safe from discovery for at least another decade. Impoverished Muslims will continue to pour into Europe and incubate themselves in veritable hothouses of resentment. And all over the Third World, from Saharan and Sub-Saharan Africa to the Indian subcontinent; from Central Asia to the Malay Archipelago, men driven to despair by poverty and humiliation will turn to their religion to explain their failure. From the pulpits beneath the minarets the reverend fingers will be raised to the infidel neighbor before being lowered to trace out line after fiery line in the Sacred Koran. But events like the mosque bombing in Malegaon warn that problems which sophisticates find unworthy of address may still provoke Third world indigenes and First World skinheads to the atavistic response of the axe handle, molotov cocktail and high explosive. Those who argue that bringing democracy and prosperity to the Islamic world is a fool's errand should consider the alternative. Theodore Dalrymple illustrates what that alternative is through an incident which happened last month in the heart of Western Europe:

British passengers on a flight from Malaga to Manchester did a little impromptu terrorist profiling recently. Some already on the aircraft got off, while those waiting to get on refused to do so, until the flight crew removed from the plane two apparently South Asian young men who seemed to be talking Arabic. ... Astonishingly, the passengers got their way: the two men had to get off the flight. Presumably, they flew on the next flight, but one can easily imagine their feelings. Unfortunately, it is unlikely that the experience would make them less rather than more receptive to the siren song of extremism. ... Far lesser things have maddened men. Ill-treated, they will blame the passengers for it, not the men who created the atmosphere that prompts such ill-treatment. ...

The Islamists will use the episode to dramatize not the consequences of what they themselves preach but rather the West’s insuperable prejudice against Muslims. The extremists want a polarized world with a fight to the finish ... This was a small twist in the downward spiral toward such a possible apocalypse, for which the pusillanimity of the government and Muslim tolerance of extremism will be as responsible as the extremists themselves.

But in fairness to the extremists, the pusillanimous have a script of their own to which they will stick at all costs. The Boston Globe reports:

Amid pressure from Democrats, Scholastic Corp. yesterday backed off its plans to distribute learning guides to schools in conjunction with a controversial "docudrama" that is set to air on ABC this weekend. The made-for-TV movie, "The Path to 9/11," has prompted howls from Democrats who argue that ABC is engaging in a partisan attack by airing a film that fictionalizes events to portray President Bill Clinton and his top aides failing to take action to eliminate Osama bin Laden during the 1990s. The study guide Scholastic produced and posted on its website for high school students included several politically explosive statements, including a suggestion that former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein had a role in the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. Scholastic issued a statement yesterday saying it was removing the materials from its website. Instead, the children's publishing company said it will produce and distribute a new discussion guide that "will focus more specifically on media literacy, critical thinking, and historical background."

One decade more.