The second time around
A second nuclear test in the works? South Korea is aware fresh signs that North Korea may be preparing for a second nuclear weapon test and has strengthened its intelligence-sharing with the United States, Yonhap News reported Tuesday.
China worried about a nuclear Japan: says President Bush. “I know they’re concerned about the statement that came out of Japan…that said Japan is rethinking,” Bush said, apparently referring to comments Sunday by Japan’s top ruling party policymaker, who called for discussion on whether Japan should go nuclear in response to the North Korean nuclear test. (Kyodo/Breitbart)
More ...
US spy satellites detect activity at Nokor test site: U.S. officials said they could not be certain of what the North Koreans were doing in the area, but the activity there could be preparations for a second nuclear blast, NBC and ABC said. They gave no further details. (Reuters/Breitbart))
Popular Mechanics (hat tip: Glenn Reynolds) points out that North Korea's biological and chemical mass casualty weaponry far exceeds the potential of its nuclear arms. "The consensus among weapons inspectors, intelligence analysts, academics and others I have interviewed—–which is backed up by the available open source material—-is that North Korea has developed anthrax, plague and botulism toxin as weapons and has extensively researched at least six other germs including smallpox and typhoid. "
posted by wretchardthecat at 10/16/2006 07:00:00 PM
6 Comments:
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Somebody call the Chinese and 'splain to them what's on their doorstep. If Bozo's half as nuts as advertized. they've got a real problem.
Japan and Formosa are a delivery system away.
China is a outmigration away from disaster. We're very lucky no similar nutbag is in charge in Mexico. [Although the Chinese border system is probably somewhat better than ours.]
And the DOW continues to ratchet upward.
Maybe it's all about "clarity".
Give the Japs all the help they can covertly until they have both Nukes and delivery systems, wouldn’t want NOKOR to try a hit them first scenario before Japan could retaliate. Me believes China, NOKOR and others would become very cooperative once Japan is on the same level playing field as China and China would see their current world shrink and future change drastically with a Nuclear Japan off shore. It would probably drop the “Rolaids” sales a little more here too.
As I have stated before, the NORK's some what successful nuke testing is bad news any way you slice it.
It will be much worse if the next test provides a much higher yield. If that does happen it will prove that the NORKs are advancing much faster than we had anticipated (and negotiations will have proven useless).
Conversely, another "fizzle" will indicate they need much more expertise to produce a credible atomic weapon. Let's hope for the latter.
I say follow the money.
Yes, Japan may arm-up to counter a North Korean threat, but it will be done in such a way as not to antagonize China. With huge investments and an even larger potential market in China, Japan may see its economic and security interests best served by neutrality in Sino-American matters.
South Korea, for whom China is now its largest trading partner, could become Finlandized. Taiwan, with its ethnic ties and increasing economic interdependence with the mainland, may reach some form of Hong Kong-style accord which preserves a veneer of independence while allowing the regime in Beijing to declare victory.
Much of the hope for a 'forward democratic front' in East Asia composed of Japan, Korea and Taiwan to counter China-NK is predicated not only upon East Asia's perception of American strength and commitment to the region, but also upon the subordination of each nations' economic interests to U.S. strategic interests.
A China which puts on a show of reigning in Pyongyang -- auditioning for regional security guarantor -- would certainly impress its neighbors.
Thus, in the Pacific we're likely to see something akin to the shadow once cast across Europe by the Soviet Union, and with it, all of the triangulation and calculation by those living within the shadow we once got (and still get) from the Europeans.
Twilight vigil, indeed.
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