Second Nuke Test reported, but veracity doubted
Japan reports possible second nuclear test,
according to the Daily Telgraph. "North Korea may have conducted a second nuclear test today, Japanese public broadcaster NHK reported, but South Korean officials quickly denied the report."
But the US does not confirm
the second test, citing lack of seismic evidence. It was the spuriously reported "second
test" that got me thinking about suitcase nukes or at least at the prospect
that the Nokors were developing small bombs. This second reported test, if real, may indcate a
failure in their basic design, as it seems even less powerful thatn the first. But I'm going to wait until more information is available and keep watching the situation.
posted by wretchardthecat at 10/10/2006 06:04:00 PM
28 Comments:
Japan will nuclearize sooner or later. Even if the North Korean regime collapses, you'll get a unified Korea with nuclear weapons staring at Japan across 100 miles of water. Then it will be China who's jumping at every little tremor.
``I have had not received information about any indications ... that a test has take place,'' Abe said at a parliamentary budget meeting.
U.S. and South Korean monitors said they detected no new seismic activity Wednesday in North Korea.
Fears
Analysts said the yen's reaction to initial reports that the Japanese government was investigating the possibility of a second nuclear test by North Korea showed how jittery markets were.
Shahab Jalinoos, ABN AMRO Bank's currency strategist, said in a note to clients the degree of risk priced into markets was still very low.
Risk Still Low
Robert Kaplan asks that same question, "what now Lieutenant?"
"... American military worry less about an indiscriminate artillery attack on the South than about a very discriminate one. My sources feared that in the aftermath of the KFR’s missile launches in July, the Bush administration might actually have been foolish enough to react militarily—which might have been exactly what Kim Jong Il was hoping for, since it would have allowed him to achieve a primary strategic goal: splitting the alliance between South Korea and the United States. How would that happen? After the United States responded in a targeted fashion to the missile launches or some other future outrage, the North would initiate an intensive five- or ten- minute-long artillery barrage on Seoul, killing some Americans and South Koreans near Yongsan Garrison (“Dragon Mountain”), the American military’s Green Zone in the heart of the city. Then the North would simply stop. And after the shell fire halted, the proverbial question among American officers in a quandary would arise:
What now, Lieutenant?
Now a blockade is an act of war, siezing and boarding a NorK ship is an act of war. The tit for tat question to be answered, how many minutes of artillery salvo targeting Seoul per ship turned away or boarded?
How many SorKs sacrificed to US fear, when the locals are willing to "live with it" indeed the current status que is prefered in Seoul and Peking.
It really will come down to "heroic" vrs our current usage of ""Post-Heroic" Warfare"
If we get serious with the bad guys of the world we need to fight on the level they do...
no medicine, no food, no fuel, no technology at a MINIMUM.
If they fire rockets or cause terror, then ten-fold on thier cities.
I know it's cruel but if the iranians, hamas, nokor, hezbollah, somalia, taliban types want to have a pissing contest, let's give them one.
and also MOCK EM when we do it...
Persian Hands
By JOHN BATCHELOR
October 10, 2006
New York Sun
Why did the North Koreans detonate a nuclear weapon now? Who benefits from a clear defiance of the United Nations Security Council? What possible gain could North Korea's utilitarian despot achieve by humiliating his protector, Beijing, by baiting his enabler, Seoul, and by threatening his adversary, America, in defense of its ally Japan?
Answer this question and you can begin to answer the scale of the threat posed by the North Korean test. Answer this question and you begin to see that the Bush administration faces an enemy that is well prepared to beggar commerce, wreck security, and blackmail the Security Council unless it gets what it wants. Answer this question and you will see that the hands on the nuke weapons test are not Korean but Persian.
Recall three months ago, when North Korea raised an intercontinental ballistic missile on the launch pad and taunted Beijing, Seoul, and Tokyo for weeks before firing the weapon into the Japan Sea. At the time, Washington was accused of provoking North Korea by refusing to negotiate face-to-face and by spurning North Korea's demand for an American guarantee not to attack. Madeleine Albright recently called President Bush's foreign policy a "mess" and said he should have used Bill Clinton as a special negotiator with Pyongyang to defuse the confrontation. Horsefeathers. On July 4, North Korea launched at least seven missiles within a short time span, one of which was a Taepodong-2 missile capable of carrying a miniaturized nuclear warhead, not because Mr. Bush wouldn't telephone Kim Jong Il's bunker but because the test was paid for by, and staged for, Tehran.
It has since been confirmed repeatedly not only that several officers of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards rocket forces were present at the missile launches, but also that the missile test was a complete success. The first wave of media reports — and remember that in war, the first three reports are wrong — declared the Taepodong-2 missile test was a failure because it fell into the Sea of Japan after only 42 seconds. The first media reports also declared that the other smaller missiles, single-stage, short-range Scud types, were fired to mask the Taepodong-2 error. Wrong on all counts. The Iranians paid for the test and intended it to demonstrate a counter strike after an American first strike. North Korean rocket forces were dispersed beforehand in warlike conditions, without communications among the units, exactly as if America had just scored a first-round decapitation. Each rocket brigade then launched one short-range theater missile to accompany the strategic weapon, the Taepodong-2, in order to simulate the mass firing of the arsenal. The missiles all landed within observation of prepositioned trawlers.
The Iranians were delighted. Their agents, the North Koreans, from whom Tehran has bought its missile systems and its nuclear weapons systems, had demonstrated that in the event of the expected American bombing, Tehran would be able to launch weapons in all directions. Tehran also knew that American signals-intelligence watched everything and understood the message.
The remaining component was the nuclear warhead itself. It is logical, and now confirmed, that Iranian agents were present at the test site, since they both ordered and paid for the test. It is logical, though not confirmed, that the agents were the same mix that was present at the July 4 missile exercise, either Pasdaran officers or Iranian Nuclear Energy Agency ops or Iranian intelligence ops, or all of the above. It is logical, though not confirmed, that the same device that was detonated is the miniaturized warhead that Iran needs to mount atop its rebuilt Taepodong-2 missile, a version of which Tehran calls the Shahab-3. It is logical, though not confirmed, that Iran wanted the American national security apparatus to see that the two critical elements in a mutually assured destruction scenario are now in place: a launch-on-warning missile offensive and a nuclear warhead for the outgoing strike.
The U.N. Security Council warned the North Koreans not to fire the nuke or else. The U.N. Security Council warned the Iranians that it must cease enrichment of uranium or else.
The else clock is running. The six-party talks in East Asia to contain Pyongyang are a sham. The European Union talks in Geneva to contain Tehran are a sham. The U.N. Security Council talks in New York to contain the nuclear weapons proliferators are a sham. The only confab to wait out is the Congressional elections. After that, and regardless of how much noise the appeasers make in the House of Representatives, the fleet sails to defend America and enforce civilization.
Mr. Batchelor is host of "The John Batchelor Show," now on hiatus.
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OT, but in the same regional neighborhood kinda sorta:
Bomb diffused in Cotabato City
"It was the third bombing since Tuesday, when two bomb attacks killed at least six people and injured more than 30 others in Makilala town in North Cotabato province and Tacurong City in Sultan Kudarat province.
Obatay said the improvised explosive device used in Cotabato City was made from an 81mm
mortar attached to a timing device - similar to the bombs used in the Makilala and Tacurong attacks.
''The attackers must have intended to explode the device during rush hour, when a lot of people would be on the street and near the attack site, but the bomb exploded earlier,'' he said.
Security forces in the southern region of Mindanao were placed on red alert earlier in the day following Tuesday's bombings.
Director General Oscar Calderon, national police chief, said that based on intelligence reports, Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) militants and the local Muslim Abu Sayyaf rebels were planning more attacks in Mindanao and other key cities.
''We are preparing for any eventuality,'' he said. ''We have placed all our forces on highest alert, including those in Metro Manila.''"
From the above Catobato City article:
"Colonel Ruperto Pabustan said the bomb that was discovered on Wednesday was made from two 81mm mortars attached to a mobile phone as a detonator and a nine-volt battery.
He said the cellular phone showed more than 20 missed calls, an indication that the suspects attempted to detonate the bomb.
''Luckily, it did not explode,'' he said. ''Had it exploded, hundreds more would have been killed since the area was densely populated at the time of the incident.''"
Maybe that collision of terminology, that of the mobile end user and the terrorist, will persuade those folks who were so aghast at sting operations targeting this technology.
So, how many tracfones does it take to pull the Dow below 8000?
It's somewhat unsettling to think of the aftermath of a nuclear attack on South Korean and the brutal reuniting of the two country's populations.
[London Times]
...The North Korean refugee had one request for her captors before the young Chinese soldiers led her back across the steel-girdered bridge on the Yalu River that divides two "socialist allies".
"She [the escaped NK women] asked for a comb and some water because she said that if she was going to die she could not face going to heaven looking as dirty and dishevelled as this," recounted a relative of one [Chinese] soldier who was there. The [Chinese] soldiers, who later told family members of the incident, marched the woman, who was about 30, to the mid-point of the bridge.
North Korean guards were waiting. They signed papers for receipt of the woman, who kept her dignity until that moment. Then, in front of the Chinese troops, one seized her and another speared her hand — the soft part between thumb and forefinger — with the point of a sharpened steel cable, which he twisted into a leash.
"She screamed just like a pig when we kill it at home in the village," the soldier later told his relative. "Then they dragged her away."
See: the Times On Line
USMC_VET, Genie ruled! Blonde, excited to please the master and magical. You’re gonna have to arm wrestle for her!
Charles, Link to the story next time.
This NOKOR Nuke event only shows the Impotency and Humiliation of the “Lone Super Power”, just the image boasting event Narcissi’s, Homicidal Megalomaniacs like the NK leader and Mullahs love. Bush is now Damned if he does and Damned if he doesn’t do anything by everyone at home that is a Delusional Lefty or overly sensitive public School/College trained American and the International Community, Bush did not play his hand well in this poker game. Iran is being shown that obtaining Nuke’s at current is a simple threat game with little consequences to the ruling elite and at worst a few sleepless nights in a deep dark damp bunker. With the NOKORs there has (and never has been) real never been a military option available to stop them, Don’t get me wrong, Prez Kerry would have screwed this up 10 fold as bad, the cards were dealt on Clintons watch and there was never really anything Uncle Sam could do after that.
Teresita wrote: "Japan will nuclearize sooner or later".
What an absurd pronouncement. Neither China nor the rest of Asia will stand for a re-militarised Japan, let alone a nuclearised one. At most Japan will cower under the US nuclear umbrella.
In the event of a unified Korea, whatever legacy nuclear program left over will go the way of South Africa's. The Koreans will not provoke an arms race with Japan, nor will the Japanese want to redefine their relationship so foundationally with the rest of Asia. To suggest otherwise is to betray a stunning ignorance of history, and the Japanese historical psyche.
So...who does the US surrender to? the Hermit Kingdom or the Caliphate? Or would China give the US better terms? Should Bush surrender now or wait and let Hillary surrender in 2008?
This is one of the times when I'm glad that my WW2 Marine combat veteran father is deceased. All of this girlish whining would kill him.
I'm not worried. The United Nations still functions as the worlds primier problem solving and peace keeping body.
The members of that august body will deliver our beloved Earth neighbors the hand of friendship, thus easing Noth Koreans very tight panty wad.
Should that not work we'll send the Harlem Globetrotters on a North Korean tour and if that fake bucket of water/confetti doesn't have'm laughing then we'll just have Bill and Hillary host a picnic at Fort Marcy Park for their leadership. I here they host killer parties.
Neither China nor the rest of Asia will stand for a re-militarised Japan, let alone a nuclearised one.
Well, Bush said the US will not stand for a nuclear North Korea too, and now they're nuclear, and we're standing for it. And Japan is already militarized. Even now the Japanese self-defense force is a thing to be reckoned with...especially with Aegis-type destroyers.
"And Japan is already militarized. Even now the Japanese self-defense force is a thing to be reckoned with...especially with Aegis-type destroyers."
Well, in a sense the police department in my town is militarized too. That doesn't mean they have a war-waging capability. Japan's self-defense force is just that. . .focused on keeping an enemy at bay long enough for the USA to kick in on Japan's side. Japan has virtually no ability to extend military influence anywhere beyond its islands.
Aegis destroyers are powerful bits of military kit, but to bandy about the name as if its some sort of mega-weapon is sensationalism. In fact, the Aegis destroyers are designed primarily for fleet defense, to provide a comprehensive C^3 capability and contribute to the anti-aircraft/anti-sub/anti-missile screen of a carrier battlegroup.
Today at a news conference, Pres Bush was asked if a nuclear armed North Korea was still unacceptable.
He replied "It is." And that was all.
He was then asked about reports to the effect that the U.S. might now accept North Korea having nuclear weapons.
He replied "They're wrong." And that was all.
Ah, the first OBLIGATORY:
NYC SCARE: 'SMALL AIRCRAFT' CRASHES INTO HIGH-RISE ON UPPER EAST SIDE... 524 E. 72ND STREET AT YORK, NEAR EAST RIVER... 'NO REASON TO BELIEVE EVENT IS TERRORISM'... DEVELOPING...
---
Just another run of the Mill
Plane Crashes into Highrise Story.
Huge pieces of flaming Debris,
ho hum.
Either a Domestic Dispute
Business Deal Gone Wrong
Drug related
or
Finally, last and LEAST:
A Crazed Muslim that loves Jews committing suicide.
I forgot:
"Terrible Accident"
with sequelae.
Planes crashes into N.Y. building
Small plane smashes into high-rise building
Witness: Huge flames, people were screaming
President informed; crash believed to be accident
...NORAD orders aircraft patrol cities as precautionary measure.
ho hum
747 hits Empire State Building.
400 Jews believed to have decided to commit mass suicide.
Terrorism not suspected.
"The initial indication is that there is a terrible accident," said Department of Homeland Security spokesman Russ Knocke.
---
Like when that young Muslim in the lightplane was just a disturbed teen.
Sometimes an accident is just an accident.
And just to add. . .
If this does turn out to be just some fellow sightseeing who caught a bad draft or lost his way, then the only people guilty of terrorism today are the reporters (who keep saying the word 'terrorism' in conjunction with a small plane crash, but won't say it when a man intentionally detonates himself in a cafe. . .no that's 'resistance' or 'insurgency') and nutcases who believe an accident can no longer happen without sinister implications.
As long as the US is a member of the UN it will remain the "Paper Tiger" Mao described.
Yes , I know, we routed the Taliban, got an election accomplished in Iraq, but we are too constrained. We are a Paper Tiger unable to finish off our enemies. We operate in a tiny envelope of our power dictated by our affiliation wiht the UN.
It is Americans interests we should protect, which doesn't mean spending billions globally on "feel good projects".
If we were a "power" and projected it as such other countries would step in line very quickly. They have learned our arsenal is only for MAD and not for power projection to compliment our diplomatic efforts. We are a bound Paper Tiger.
Our developing demographics will cement this in the coming decade,when larger and larger unassilmilated minority groups exert political pressure to "help" there "home" countries, while simultaneously binding any military action.
What Dan said at 9:09
"We operate in a tiny envelope of our power dictated by our affiliation wiht the UN."
No offense, but the only thing constraining us is the will of our own nation. The UN hasn't constrained us in years. Hell, they can't even constrain tin-pot dictators in Sudan, much less the United States. To imply that we go by the dictates of the UN, that our membership is anything but a veto vote on the security council these days, is just plain wrong.
Hi Wretchard, great blog. I see the S.Koreans now want nuclear weapons and likely so do the Japanese.
On an unrelated matter, can I ask how you have just a few lines of each post showing on your main page with a link to the full post? I want to do the same with my blog so that it doesn't take 10 minutes to load.
Thanks,
V
vakaivosavosa@gmail.com
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