Intermezzo or Finale?
"Israeli government, security establishment officials believe violence in north may be over within days following US-French resolution on ceasefire". A senior Lebanese official thinks the resolution undermines Lebanese sovereignty according to Ynet. Foreign Policy lists out the countries which may provide troops for an international force for Lebanon. Egypt, Turkey, France and Germany, why they may agree and what's against them.
Reuters reports that a ceasefire proposal for the cessation of hostilities without IDF withdrawals was sent to the Security Council. The Lebanese Foreign Ministry said "Unfortunately, it lacked, for instance, a call for the withdrawal of Israeli forces which are now in Lebanon." (Reuters/ABC) The text of the draft resolution is now available. The full text follow:
UNITED NATIONS - Following is the text of a draft UN resolution on the Middle East conflict negotiated by the United States and France and presented to the full 15-nation Security Council Saturday.
The Security Council
PP1. Recalling all its previous resolutions on Lebanon, in particular resolutions 425 (1978), 426 (1978), 520 (1982), 1559 (2004), 1655 (2006) and 1680 (2006), as well as the statements of its President on the situation in Lebanon, in particular the statements of 18 June 2000(S/PRST/2000/21), of 19 October 2004 (S/PRST/2004/36), of 4 May 2005 (S/PRST/2005/17) of 23 January 2006 (S/PRST/2006/3) and of 30 July 2006(S/PRST/2006/35), Advertisement
PP2. Expressing its utmost concern at the continuing escalation of hostilities in Lebanon and in Israel since Hezbollah's attack on Israel on 12 July 2006, which has already caused hundreds of deaths and injuries on both sides, extensive damage to civilian infrastructure and hundreds of thousands of internally displaced persons,
PP3. Emphasizing the need for an end of violence, but at the same time emphasizing the need to address urgently the causes that have given rise to the current crisis, including by the unconditional release of the abducted Israeli soldiers,
PP4: Mindful of the sensitivity of the issue of prisoners and encouraging the efforts aimed at settling the issue of the Lebanese prisoners detained in Israel,
OP1. Calls for a full cessation of hostilities based upon, in particular, the immediate cessation by Hezbollah of all attacks and the immediate cessation by Israel of all offensive military operations;
OP2. Reiterates its strong support for full respect for the Blue Line
OP3. Also reiterates its strong support for the territorial integrity, sovereignty and political independence of Lebanon within its internationally recognized borders, as contemplated by the Israeli-Lebanese General Armistice Agreement of 23 March 1949;
OP4. Calls on the international community to take immediate steps to extend its financial and humanitarian assistance to the Lebanese people, including through facilitating the safe return of displaced persons and, under the authority of the Government of Lebanon, reopening airports and harbours for verifiably and purely civilian purposes, and calls on it also to consider further assistance in the future to contribute to the reconstruction and development of Lebanon;
OP5. Emphasizes the importance of the extension of the control of the Government of Lebanon over all Lebanese territory in accordance with the provisions of resolution 1559 (2004) and resolution 1680 (2006), and of the relevant provisions of the Taif Accords, for it to exercise its full sovereignty and authority;
OP6. Calls for Israel and Lebanon to support a permanent ceasefire and a long-term solution based on the following principles and elements:- strict respect by all parties for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Israel and Lebanon;- full respect for the Blue Line by both parties;- delineation of the international borders of Lebanon, especially in those areas where the border is disputed or uncertain, including in the Shebaa farms area;- security arrangements to prevent the resumption of hostilities, including the establishment between the Blue Line and the Litani river of an area free of any armed personnel, assets and weapons other than those of the Lebanese armed and security forces and of UN mandated international forces deployed in this area;- full implementation of the relevant provisions of the Taif Accords and of resolutions 1559 (2004) and 1680 (2006) that require the disarmament of all armed groups in Lebanon, so that, pursuant to the Lebanese cabinet decision of July 27, 2006, there will be no weapons or authority in Lebanon other than that of the Lebanese state;- deployment of an international force in Lebanon, consistent with paragraph 10 below;- establishment of an international embargo on the sale or supply of arms and related material to Lebanon except as authorized by its government;- elimination of foreign forces in Lebanon without the consent of its government;- provision to the United Nations of remaining maps of land mines in Lebanon in Israel's possession;
OP7: Invites the Secretary General to support efforts to secure agreements in principle from the Government of Lebanon and the Government of Israel to the principles and elements for a long-term solution as set forth in paragraph 6 above;
OP8: Requests the Secretary General to develop, in liaison with key international actors and the concerned parties, proposals to implement the relevant provisions of the Taif Accords, and of resolutions 1559 (2004) and 1680 (2006), including disarmament, and for delineation of the international borders of Lebanon, especially in those areas where the border is disputed or uncertain, including by dealing with the Shebaa farms, and to present those proposals to the Security Council within thirty days;
OP9. Calls on all parties to cooperate during this period with the Security Council and to refrain from any action contrary to paragraph 1 above that might adversely affect the search for a long-term solution, humanitarian access to civilian populations, or the safe return of displaced persons, and requests the Secretary General to keep the Council informed in this regard;
OP10. Expresses its intention, upon confirmation to the Security Council that the Government of Lebanon and the Government of Israel have agreed in principle to the principles and elements for a long-term solution as set forth in paragraph 6 above, and subject to their approval, to authorize in a further resolution under Chapter VII of the Charter the deployment of a UN mandated international force to support the Lebanese armed forces and government in providing a secure environment and contribute to the implementation of a permanent ceasefire and a long-term solution;
OP11. Requests UNIFIL, upon cessation of hostilities, to monitor its implementation and to extend its assistance to help ensure humanitarian access to civilian populations and the safe return of displaced persons;
OP12. Calls upon the Government of Lebanon to ensure arms or related materiel are not imported into Lebanon without its consent and requests UNIFIL, conditions permitting, to assist the Government of Lebanon at its request;
OP13. Requests the Secretary-General to report to the Council within one week on the implementation of this resolution and to provide any relevant information in light of the Council's intention to adopt, consistent with paragraph 10 above, a further resolution;
OP14. Decides to remain actively seized of the matter
posted by wretchardthecat at 8/06/2006 12:39:00 AM
375 Comments:
This is the best the West can muster?
Is it any wonder that the Islamofascists are so arrogant?
Mr. Olmert will be pleased by any or all of the above partners. He really would like to get on to the serious business of retreat from the "territories". This nasty business in Lebanon has been such a distraction.
Calling Mr. Netanyahu!
Would these be the Egyptians, incompetent in securing a single Gaza crossing?
Would these be the Italians, inconstant allies in Iraq?
Would these be the French, whores to all comers?
Would these be the Turks, blockers of the 4th Infantry Division?
Would these be the Germans…?
Of the lot, surprisingly, the Germans have something to prove and might be the best, although unable to field 20,000 combat ready troops.
Mr. Olmert must be saying, “Yes, please, sir.”
Will Lebanon Be the Next Iran?
- Pamela of Atlas Shrugs talks with the Jerusalem Post’s
Caroline Glick about the war.
In this exclusive podcast, Glick criticizes the initial air war and warns that if Israel does not finish the job against Hezbollah, Lebanon is headed for Iran-style theocracy.
Allen,
With all respect the Bibi who surrendered Hebron and was about to give the Golan to Assad isn't exactly my idea of a great leader.
Who would have thought the Wehrmacht would ever be called on by an Israeli PM?
This war is very frustrating. Israel has from 5-10K troops operating at any one time. They've had less than 50 dead in 25 days or so, or around 2 dead per day, hardly serious losses. By comparison they had well over 100 dead a day in 67 and 73. In 67 they had 250K troops fighting in 73 450K troops fighting. This war to me is just as important and they have 10K max, or at most 2% of what they committed in 73. How can anybody expect victory when you fight with more than 95% of your guys on the sidelines? It doesn't make sense.
Yes, there'll be casualties, but there'll be victory.
If the IDF went in with overwhelming force they might have a few hundred dead, but hezbollah would have well past a few thousand dead and have been driven clear of the Litani for good.
I can't wait to read the post mortem on this. Find out the inside story. I think Olmert and Peretz will be seen as the culprits.
As more details emerge on the ceasefire proposal a few things comments suggest themselves. First, because the cessation of hostilities is not preconditioned on an IDF withdrawal, the longer Hezbollah delays the more territory will be held by the IDF. Second, even if the Hezbollah decides to accept the ceasefire now it is unclear how stable such a ceasefire will be. A ceasefire followed by an immediate violation would restart hostilities but with Israel already in possession of parts of Hezbollahland.
This is not a stable condition for Lebanon, Hezbollah or Israel. None of their essential goals are attained. Something is lacking from the formula, otherwise it seems almost intentionally temporary.
Wretchard:
If/when hostilities recommence, won't Israel have a problem in that the Multis are then in the line of fire?
---
Carolyn Glick points out some the fantasies behind our position:
a. That the Lebanese govt is in any real sense separate from Hezbollah.
b. Likewise the Army, which has been aiding Hezbollah thus far.
c. That a multinational force composed of countries hostile to Israel will result in ridding Lebanon of Hezbollah.
I've added the full text of the resolution since it became available. Fire away guys.
I am not sure who wins in this ceasefire scenario which basically solves nothing. It doesn't remove the IDF from Lebanese soil. It doesn't obviously destroy Hezbollah. UNIFIL gets to crawl back onto the world stage. Kofi Annan gets to try to solve the problems 20 years couldn't solve.
And the biggest missing piece is the international force whose composition is as yet unknown. As Doug says, it'll be in the way of the IDF. But if it's anything more than a paper tiger it will be a target for the Hezbollah.
Will the Olmert government fall? Will Hezbollah even accept the ceasefire? They seem to be holding out.
An agreement between France and the USA at the UN would be fine if they were the ones actually fighting. It doesn't seem to me as if either of the combatants is in any kind of mood to cease hostilities at this time.
In any case, I'm deeply skeptical of the value of UN troops. The historical record shows that when the Blue Helmets are around, the best case scenario is having your women and children sexually molested by the "peacekeepers" in exchange for humanitarian food relief, and the worse case scenario is usually genocide.
UN: Worthless as tits on a boar hog.
Hezbollah will never accept a ceasefire that restricts them from firing on any IDF soldier occupying Lebanese territory. At the most they would stop firing rockets into Israel in return for an Israeli halt to aerial bombardments. In any case the ground war will go on.
As each day passes, Hezbollah’s standing in Lebanon and most of the wider Arab world continues to rise. About the only significant player in the Arab world to still openly denounce Hezbollah is Al Qaida (kind of makes you wonder, huh?), the leader of the Kuwaiti branch called for a temporary alliance with the “Zionists and the Crusaders” to help check the rising Shiite tide.
The reasons why Israel attacked Lebanon’s civilian infrastructure instead of concentrating on Hezbollah will be debated to years to come along with the question of who ran their war more incompetently, Olmert or Bush. As the pressure from Israel’s failure in Lebanon pushes Ayatollah Sistani closer to Iran and the Sadrists, Israel is facing a future with a sweeping Shiite dagger (Iran-Iraq-Syria-Hezbollah) aimed straight for her neck. Syria seems the obvious weak-link here. Will Israel gamble all and launch an invasion of Syria? The question being of course whether the status quo Assad regime is more dangerous than whatever future regime would emanate from an Israeli occupation. The wildcard here is that Syria is 85% Sunni and empowering this long oppressed majority might just snap the Shiite dagger into two.
In any case the future does not look good for Israel.
Had Israel accomplished a prompt and thorough defeat of Hezbollah, as they had in the past, this would be a bad deal for Israel. That is now past. Iran has been ignored in this agreement, but exposed as the the source of arms and the patron of Hezbollah. Saudi Arabia and Egypt have been startled awake by the a resurgent Iran. Israel did not prove to be the strategic asset that the US had wished for, but it was always a wish and never proven. The US does not get benefit of a Hezbollah destroyed. There is a possibility that Hezbollah is stronger. Two hundred thousand plus protesting for Hezbollah in Baghdad does not make for a good day. European, Turkish and Egyptian troops forcing a settlement and a security zone is good. Israel did not do it, and The US has no appetite for the job.
I see a kernel of optimism. Iran lost big. The vanguard Hezbollah, at a minimum will be forced mainstream, without an army. The fault lines between Sunni and Shiite have been exposed to reveal the schism within Islam. The West can begin to exploit that, because the only resolution within Islam is to de-emphasize the predominance of religion as the centerpiece for Muslim nations. The case for secularism within Islam can be made.
Israel will not survive either as a Middle Eastern Power or a permanent ward of th e US. The future for Israel is the same as her past. Israel is a European power and state. The stabilization of Israeli borders by Europe can establish the beginning of a process that could bring Israel into the EU and Nato. Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq and yes Syria, can be the bulwark against the Mad Mullah Tea Party in Tehran.
allen said:
Of the lot, surprisingly, the Germans have something to prove and might be the best, although unable to field 20,000 combat ready troops.
You learn anything by doing it. American troops were so green in February 1943 they got their butt personally handed to them by Rommel at Kasserine Pass, but in just over a year, by the time of Normandy, the Americans had learned how to coordinate close air support and the American soldier had become nearly as good as Fritz. There is no reason the krauts could not, in very short order, stand shoulder-to-shoulder with our own troops, if they would just get in the shi'ite.
Lebanon gov't is controlled by the Hezbos, Syria, and Iran. So it can't agree to the UN draft which leaves IDF troops in place in South Lebanon for now and (I think) long-term tries to get the Hezbos to disarm or leave So. Lebanon.
Israel will go along with resolution. Hezbos reason for being is to destroy Israel, so it can't just pick up and leave South Lebanon.
I have read somewhere on the bolgosphere that IDF has indentified 5 pockets of Hezos in So Leb. and has surrounded those areas. The startegy will be attrition, which should work. Hopefully at some point the Hezbo missile launches will decrease as the process of attrition continues.
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This could be interesting if Turkey provides most of the peace keeping forces. Turkey is threatened by Iran and will have no difficulty justifying necessary force to neutralize Hezbollah. Of course, once the Turkish army returns to Beirut after a 90 year absence, it is unlikely to depart.
Teresita Said:
"There is no reason the krauts could not, in very short order, stand shoulder-to-shoulder with our own troops,"
Would that be the same as the "Krauts" standing shoulder to shoulder with the ( spics, polocks, waps, kikes, niggers, slopes, dinks and nips)?
"...Lebanese sovereignty...."
That's not quite, or just barely, an oxymoron, right?
sarahweddington,
re: BiBi
You may have missed my cautionary note concerning Mr. Netanyahu.
While not a panacea, he is a foil to Mr. Olmert's undiminished peacenik tendencies.
Relatively, Mr. Netanyahu is the better choice.
wretchard,
Not only will the current resolution fail to be SUSTAINABLE, Dr. Rice now tells us that another implementing resolution must follow hard on its heels. She is confident that the second resolution will satisfy fully the “international community.”
Does "PP" mean "whereas"? Does "OP" mean "resolved"?
Question for 2164,
I saw several newes articles re the al Sadr's supporters marching in Baghdad and chanting "death to" etc (with permission of the Iraqui government incidentally). The first reports said "hundreds" of thousands. Then I saw a report of "tens" of thousands. I'm wondering if the initial reports we're the international MSM cheering section pushing for Hezbollah?
2164th said:
>
> Teresita Said:
>
>>"There is no reason the
>> krauts could not, in
>> very short order, stand
>> shoulder-to-shoulder with
>> our own troops,"
>
>Would that be the same as the
>"Krauts" standing shoulder to
>shoulder with the ( spics, polocks,
>waps, kikes, niggers, slopes, dinks
>and nips)?
You forgot one:
French frog
And that little rebuke, by the way, was the last thing 2164th had to say to this flip.
Garth Farlkey
Radio Netherlands is a balanced responsible source. They do not have the BBC agenda, and reported over two hundred thousand. They also reported that there was a lot of organization in the demonstrations. A similar thing happened in the Shiite response to the democracy demonstartion in Beirut.
The Wall Street Journal reports "tens of thousands"
IDEAST CRISIS TRACKER
Fighting Continues Despite U.N. Resolution Draft
August 6, 2006 10:43 a.m.
Updated regularly with news on the Israel-Hezbollah-Lebanon crisis. All times ET.
http://online.wsj.com/public/article
/SB115306760246608000-8QlZFINfzxPC6s_
nbdMeLJG5Fs8_20060902.
html?mod=tff_main_tff_top
So ist das Leben--hart aber dafür gemein.
sarah said:
I can't wait to read the post mortem on this. Find out the inside story. I think Olmert and Peretz will be seen as the culprits
In America, there is a yawning chasm between the soldiers and generals, who tend to be hawkish, and many politicians, who tend to be dovish. In Israel it's different. Some of the most pinko loony left PMs were war heros in the endemic Arab-Israeli conflict. By the same token, it was the uber-hawk Sharon who came up with this idea of abandoning the settlements in Gaza and he was fixing to do the same thing in the West Bank. Certainly Olmert is better prepared to rise to this challenge (like Blair did after 9-11) than a Labor PM would be.
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
nonomous,
Someone, I think Nasr, recently claimed that Turkey and Iran are thawing their historical antagonism due to mutual antipathy toward the Kurdish rebels. IIRC a high-ranking generals, I forget if it was Turk or Iranian, has proposed joint exercises.
sirius_sir wrote:
But let me borrow a question from another context in the previous thread: What if Hezbollah IS the Lebanese government?
Don't governments get to decide when to take a state to war? Is not Lebanon at war? Did not Hezbollah decide to instigate it? Then your answer can be read right off the dials: Hezbollah is indeed the Lebanese government.
2164th:
So ist das Leben--hart aber dafür gemein...
hart?
Wie sagt man hart auf Englisch?
(I know that in English it is an old word for "stag.")
Thanks.
Jamie Irons
garth said:
Someone, I think Nasr, recently claimed that Turkey and Iran are thawing their historical antagonism due to mutual antipathy toward the Kurdish rebels. IIRC a high-ranking generals, I forget if it was Turk or Iranian, has proposed joint exercises.
If they make a move, they'll find a tanned and rested Kurdistan (which is not involved in the crap in Baghdad) enhanced by US Forces in northern Iraq anxious to atone for the betrayal of Bush 41 when he left them in 1991 to twist in the wind.
Kevin said: Israel attacked Lebanon’s civilian infrastructure instead of concentrating on Hezbollah....
Can you document this comment? I'm skeptical.
I seem to recall that Israel has bombed a power plant but it was somehow related to a Hezbollah stronghold. I'm haven't heard about any general attack on the power infrastructure.
I also vaguely recall that the IDF has taken out the runways at the airport in Beirut. They have definitely bombed some bridges and roads in corridors to Syria. The purpose is plainly to prevent re-supply by Iran/Syria. It's a far cry from attacking the "civilian infrastructure instead of concentrating on Hezbollah."
Bottom line, I'm very skeptical of this comment. It crys out for some kind of explanation. Better yet, let someone someone better informed than me refute it. We shouldn't just let it pass without a response.
Having read through the draft a couple of times, while I agree that functionally it's the usual UN smoke-and-mirrors, it's the most pro-Israel bit of smoke-and-mirrors to come down that pike since 1948.
It establishes Hezballah's raid on Israel as the beginning of hostilities. It doesn't require Israel to give up a single inch of Lebanese territory or to sit passively when attacked. It calls for the unconditional release of Wasserman and Regev (not a prisoner exchange). The whole Shebaa Farms thing is assigned to-be-discussed-later status, which is UN speak for when-hell-freezes.
Is it as ineffectual on the ground as UN resolutions generally are? You betcha. But it made for more delay hammering it out. And now there will be more delay while the SC dickers about it. And then Lebanon will piss off the French by turning up their collective nose at it. Whereupon we can say 'well, we tried, but Lebanon doesn't want peace,' followed by more dithering and delay. And all the while, Israel's got a nice little cauldron effect going on and the water is boiling nicely.
An aside, re Russian arms.
Haifa has been hit by long-range rockets, and Fox News thinks they have filmed both the sequential launch from Tyre, and the subsequent damage in Haifa. An Israeli is saying "We are fighting Iranian proxies and they are shooting sophisticated Iranian weapons at us."
This is the Hez response to the new ceasefire agreement. What a lovely dance of the seven veils France and US did yesterday. To what end? Perhaps to prove there is a serious war engaged on many fronts, which would seem obvious to Occam.
A Hezbollah bloodied international force is a good thing in the long run. It's going to take something to get the Western democracies off the dime.
The Lebanese PM, President and Speaker, and all their property, should be targeted by Israeli air strikes. Even if we look at the response of the Lebanese government in the best light, and acknowledging that the Lebanese army cannot disarm Hezbollah throughout the country, the army could almost certainly mass enough forces to stop Hezbollah from firing rockets in Tyre.
Lebanese officials must be held personally responsible for civilian casualties in Israel. The penalty is death.
Lebanon's government has rejected the ceasefire proposal. Syria has rejected it, calling it a "recipe for the continuation of the war." Hezbollah has rejected it. Rice says the ceasefire isn't really a ceasefire.
Oh yeah, and Syria says they're ready for a regional war.
Meanwhile, it's obvious that we're sticking with our diplomatic strategy. It was obvious in the beginning, and it's obvious now:
We don't want Hezbollah to survive as a military threat. We don't want Lebanon to fall apart. There's a middle ground in between those two opposing objectives. That middle ground is our North Star. That middle ground is where we're headed.
What's so difficult to understand?
Olmert shows his hand:
"They are beaten but it is not possible to completely destroy they [sic]. Israel has nevertheless been more successful than any other country in the battle against a guerrilla organization."
You kill a guerrila organization by calibrating your violence to your political objectives. The smart move is to significantly degrade Hezbollah over the next few weeks, militarily occupy southern Lebanon, stop hostilities, insert international force, extend Lebanon's control over all of its territory, and allow the world to turn its attention towards Iran before they reach the point of no return. This strategy makes Hezbollah vulnerable to an ultimate political solution by removing its trump card of military overmatch in Lebanon. It also allows a sense of urgency to be transferred undiminished to the question of Iran's nuclear program.
It's the smart play, from the perspective of both Israel and the US. As Kissinger states, all "honorable alternatives" to war must be explored. We can't do that if the Israeli-Lebanese war is still top story.
After first reading the draft yesterday, I said at 8/05/2006 02:12:05 PM that Hez and their axis will surely reject this. If it's so obvious to even dumb ol' me, certainly it was obvious to Bolton (not dumb ol' Bush, of course) and certainly to the plu-sophisticated French, that this "ceasefire agreement" is just background music to cover the real, deadly conversations. This is war, this is the heat of battle, a diplomatic movement in such circumstances is absurd.
So, the only reason the diplomats danced is to prove the circumstances, and prove the meaning of "ceasefire" in the Islamofascist language - just a time to prepare for more war, as it's been forever according to the Koran.
Rufus,
That is the question. And we're betting quite a bit that the answer is 'yes'. If Hezbollah is militarily degraded and yet becomes politically stronger, then we're going to get a regional war. A big one.
Catherine, that sounds plausible. If I imagine myself an Iranian-funded Islamofascist agent in the field, all my anger is flashing red as the hated Jews decimate my army in the field, and devastate my beachhead in Lebanon. Yeah, I can see a lot of calls going back "Put me in, coach, I'm ready to play!"
I can't quite believe events on this scale are actually PLANNED to create such tells, but I'm sure such tells are more likely to be seen and acted on now than they would have been prior to 9/11.
Good point.
The AP is carrying a short but instructive piece on the German position on peacekeeping. Among other things, it suggests that Chancellor Merkel is a serious, thoughtful person and Prime Minister Olmert is a dilettante completely out of his depth.
Is Germany ready to help police Lebanon?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/
ap/20060806/ap_on_re_eu/
germany_troops_in_lebanon
As has been said many times, here and elsewhere, the only other strategy that has a hope of long-term success is to widen the war to Syria and Iran.
But since that's what we'll get anyway if the current strategy fails, we might as well play this card while we've got it.
rufus, but the rope is uncoiling, and slithering up the leg of the little hitlerite in Tehran.
keep upping the pressure on Tehran until it cannot resist doing something that invites bringing the big hammer down?
Rufus,
These are truck launchers, some mil-talker on Fox said it only takes "2 or 3 minutes to pull up the outriggers and get out of Dodge" or words to that effect. At these close ranges and no need for burner, the F-16's have their best possible loiter time, but it's not a 24/7 thing.
We talked about this problem over the past year or two here, and the best tech response is to use J-STARS and similar to monitor the area and roll back the tape, to watch where the truck goes after it launches. Things like Predator can probably get a GPS fix on the spot, good enough for an Arc-light, but this war hasn't reached that particular phase, yet.
The Israelis, like the Americans, are treating war like fencing, with rules, postures and narrowly define touch points. That can't last forever, after a while you naturally go from epee to saber to halberd to rocks and sticks and bare fists, or your best equivalent.
This is an excellent mission for B-1's and B-52's and B-2's, with their unparalleled high altitude loiter time and very full magazine of responses. But as I say, we haven't yet reached the level of threat apparently, that calls for Arclight, or what we did over Afghanistan.
I suppose we are going to soon see the bitter end of this delicate, Mr. Wizard approach to war that we (and now the Israelis) have used for the past three years.
Counterterrorismblog.org is saying that Reuters misreported when they said "Lebanon rejects the ceasefire plan."
Noueihid wrote that "Lebanon rejects a draft U.N. Security Council resolution to end 26 days of fighting because it would allow Israeli forces to remain on Lebanese soil, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri said on Sunday." Basing her entire report on one of the most powerful supporters of the Syrian occupation and who heads a militia allied to Hezbollah, Noueihid gives Berri the full power of the credibility of Reuters. This title will find itself printed from Yahoo to the last local newsletter in the Fidji islands. Evidently, local editors around the world trust Reuters as they trust the Red Cross, and will conclude that indeed "Lebanon" has rejected a UN resolution, while in reality, it is Tehran-Damascus-Hezbollah axis that rejected it, and unfortunately a Reuters writer framed it otherwise.
Tony, according to this, you're right:
(snip)
After the death of Abu Musab al Zarqawi, Mughniyeh is rated the world Islamic terror movement’s most outstanding field commander.
Therefore, while the appointment is a measure of Israel’s belated military success in the Lebanese war, it also brings the conflict ever closer to two dangerous orbits – Tehran and al Qaeda.
Mughniyeh is the only undercover agent in the Middle East who enjoys the complete personal trust of Khamenei and Osama bin Laden, on both of whom he is in a position to call for aid.
antimullah.com is worth a save:
A Free Iran Can Be at the Core of Peace and Prosperity
in the Middle East!
The Israelis did not bomb the rocket launchers from the air. They videotaped the route of the launchers back to thier holes and took out the launchers and the HB crews eyeball to eyeball.
That is the Israeli fighting spirit that has kept Arab armies in their barracks for all these years.
It took a while, but the old African adage to never f**k with the elephant always works out.
Buddy, thanks for that gnarly link to facts about air-to-ground counter-battery.
The latest MSM / lib denouncement of the 9/11 Report is out, and these desperate fame-dollies are saying NORAD and the Pentagon lied about their response to the emergency on 9/11. The poor saps had to LIE like Bill Clinton in their testimony, so ashamed were they of their inability to get F-16's on targets on that day.
The sky is big, even the sky over the relatively small, seamlessly radar-covered airspace between Boston, D.C. and the World Trade Center in the middle. Our best resources, guarding our very heart, couldn't cover in time.
Until we get the lasers working, it takes minutes to get ordnance on target. If during those 100-200 seconds the target moves, we have a whole 'nother problem of tracking it. It's not plain ol' counter-battery fire on a known (GPS) launch point - you need a video-guided missile to track the sonsabitches as they hightail it down the road.
That's why you need a big ol' plane with dozens of supersonic robots ready to drop out of the stratosphere. (Okay, they're not usually called "supersonic robots" - they are JDAMs.) (Separate topic: Cruise missiles are far superior, but that's like cutting down oak trees with Little Red Corvettes. (Compared to JDAM, SLCM / ALCM's are more like the Terminator, they can track down Sarah Connor, even multiple Sara Conners.)
If you have watched the videos (WHITE + OVER BLURRY LO-RES VIDEO), and compared them to playing video flying games, you'll notice that the bombs don't seem to have a lot of glide and swoop to them.
As lovable Buddy points out, it's hard to hit mobile launchers (and tunnels, bunkers, foot trails, etc.), and that's why God invented Arclight.
Wherever the Arclight touches, there is Peace. Not much else, but peace, at last. And flies.
I am disappointed that the draft UN resolution makes any explicit reference to Hezbollah at all, for making mention of that terrorist organization effectively gives the Hezzies a quasi-governmental status as a belligerent.
If Hezbollah is to be accorded status as a belligerent, one wonders why it shouldn't be accorded status as a government. This effectively means that a boundary would need to be delineated between Lebanon and a new entity in southern Lebanon. Either the government of Lebanon will have a monopoly of violence or will cease to be the government of Lebanon in any meaningful way.
The Lebanese government may claim that the draft resolution undermines Lebanese sovereignty, but that sovereignty was already abridged when Hezbollah took the question of war and peace into its own hands on July 12, 2006. Lebanon in 2006 is in a diplomatic position analogous to Spain in 1818 during the First Seminole War. When Seminole raiders abriged American sovereignty through their raids, they effectively not only abridged American sovereignty but Spain's sovereignty as well. Although General Andrew Jackson's conquest of Florida was seen as so much of an overreaction that it caused an international scandal, John Quincy Adams turned the situation to the advantage of the United States by negotiating a new treaty with Spain that ceded Florida to the United States.
One main difference between now and then is that neither the Israeli nor the Lebanese governments desire Israel to annex Lebanese territory up to the southern edge of the Litani River, never mind that the Lebanese government has been delinquent in governing the Lebanese south and has been in breach of UNSCR 1559 for nearly two years.
Lebanon's claim of sovereignty over south Lebanon coupled with its resolute refusal to enforce governmental control over it leads one to wonder if Lebanon is to states what Caligula's horse was to Roman senators -- an example of linguistic hubris that undermines the meaning of what one is saying.
IMO, Kraut is only semi-derrogatory, sorta like Aggie.
Why not send in P-Tater after them mobile launchers?
Bolton 08!
(Sure is different listening to someone you have confidence will not wimp out, and knows the background reality of what he is talking about.)
Tony,
As Plato is said to have been ashamed that he did not learn, until he was a relatively old man, the proof that the diagonal of a square whose side has a length of one unit, is incommensurable with that unit, so am I ashamed to admit I have no idea what "Arclight" connotes.
Do you have a brief explanation, or a link?
Jamie Irons
Future Man said:
* Capitalists believe they will win game (and that the game is never over).
Communists already lost the game and believe everyone else ought to share their misfortune.
* Socialists believe they can break even (unless the game is flawed, then they will lose)
Democrats believe the game isn't so much flawed as it is rigged by Karl Rove.
* Religious fanatics believe their life is merely a qualifying round before the real game.
Life is a thinking man's game and I'm not equipped to play in either sense.
doug
Why not send in P-Tater after them mobile launchers?
Cuz P-Tater don't cotton to those folks in Bama, so if'n they got launchers over there in Mobile they're welcome to 'em.
"War" by the (poll) Numbers:
Why is it difficult to demonize a demon?
A senior coalition official, however, cautioned against treating the Mehdi Army as a monolithic entity, as it is a loosely organized body with only parts actively engaged in violent and illegal activities.
"We have to be careful that we don't demonize Jaish al-Mehdi, because look at the polls -- Moqtada Sadr himself is an enormously popular figure.
Why? Because he is thumbing his nose at the coalition," he said.
According to this "senior official" we are supposed to think twice and be careful before tackling people like Sadr but my question is;
if not now then when?
Are we supposed to give them more time to grow more powerful and more popular?
We have seen some examples in recent history when crazy tyrants were not dealt with fast enough or powerfully enough whether by an external force or by their own people.
Let's suppose that the 30 seats that Sadr's followers have in the parliament reflect his popularity, which is not true because they wouldn't have a chance to win 30 seats without joining the UIA and without Sistani backing them,
but even then we have most of the remaining powers demanding immediate disbanding of militias. And these are the ones we should consider, not controversial polls of false popularity.
Some Iraqis including their elected prime minister and elected president said 'thank you America' while others said
death to America and Iran is strongly supporting those who wish death to America, so what are you in America going to do while we still have the chance, still have the determined leadership and while there's still hope?
Will you stand with those who believe you came to help them, or will you let Iran remain free to push Iraq to doom?
http://iraqthemodel.blogspot.com/
Too bad Omar does not understand it's a rhetorical question:
We are soooo post PC now:
Fighting for what's right is sooo yesteryear.
If one starts with a set precept, say that the IDF is doing the best it can. That it's men are not halfstepping when the bullets are flying.
They have made little progress and will not have "cleared" HB from its' base of operations before the Cessation of Hostilities commences.
That will be a failing of acheiving the War Goal. Israel will have expended it's shot, and missed.
Will it get another "shot", no telling.
Whether there were 90,000 or 200,000 marchers in Baghdad, multiply that may 12 to get the US equivalent, a 2 million man march.
Again the hubris of some Clubbers, always manipulating the realities to fit a "plan" where none exists.
M Simon's vision was "clear as a bell", aristide's similar appraisals all have a ring of possibility, 'til time marches by.
How the Mohammedans will be "fooled" into starting a "wider war". How Mr Bush is just "waiting" to strike the fatal blow, in habu's fabled "Night of Redemtion".
All this when the other reality is just a clear, Israel miscalculated, is over exetended against an enemy it cannot fix to fight. Bled by a thousand cuts, deployeed in Injun country with US style RoEs, just waiting for the French to come save their bacon.
Another set of incidents to be forgotten in time as inconsequental, if Israel is lucky.
Mr Olmert just has to tell the people of Haifa that it'll be a long war. Worked for Mr Bush, didn't it
The solutin to the al0Sadr challenge is simple, doug, the Iraqi arrest him.
Simple as pie, it's their country and their man, why should Jr be involved, again. Twice the US has ceased military operations against Mr al-Sadr, why should we start another set?
Why spill more US blood to kill another Iraqi patriot? One supported by tens upon tens of thousands of Iraqi.
Like I say 'Rat:
It's rhetorical.
I just think it's illustrative of the pathetic PC crap we've come to expect over the past 3 years.
There was an arrest warrant out for him when he had 200 active followers, but this coalition/admin AGAIN chose to wimp out.
A little straight talk backed up by honest action at any point along the way would have kept us from getting here.
Now we're repeating the whole thing in Lebanon, playing let's pretend instead of for real.
As you have pointed out many times,
"depends on the meaning of"
has become the legacy of Bush II.
None dare call it surrender.
---
Has ETD come yet?
The arrest warrant was fresh at the very time that his guys were killing our Marines!
...and he was in plain sight day after day.
dannyers
Left town for two days, without news casts. Return to a buildong fropped in Haifa and a dozen IDF troopers KIA.
The Bekaa still a stronghold and Doc Assad still seeing straight.
The French will secure Israel's northern border against the Mohammedans... right.
The IDF does not claim even a 1,000 HB combatants KIA, so let's double it for 'em. Still not enough. The Hes will hold Lebanon and Mr Olmert may get the fires in Haifa put out, soon.
Rufus is amazed that the IAF cannot stop the rockets, so is the IAF commander, I'd guess.
The Sunni Insurgency in Iraq was estimated at 20,000 combatants, Mr al-Sadr can put 10 times that number on the streets of Baghdad, that, danmyers, is a "strategic event" of negative consequence for US and our Policies.
And that my friend, is a fact.
Dan,
'Rat and Trish have heard a gazillion "you just wait"
(for the brilliant plan to blossum)
over the past 3 years.
As he says,
"until time passes"
The time is past.
BlosSUM:
Nuthin + Nuthin is Nuthin
So is Jr out?
Noon, 16 August.
Day before my 51st birthday, actually.
Sadr's crew grew a thousand-fold in 3 years!
AFTER we could have taken him out, backed up by force of what passed for Iraqi justice at the time.
(He had killed a popular religious leader)
It's clear by now the IDF thought it could win this on the cheap and that it didn't have the stomach for casualties.
In its last invasion of Lebanon, in 1982, it sent 80K in and they were in Beirut in a week and had the PLO on the verge of destruction before the US and France balied them out by letting them sail to Tunis.
In 2006 they put at most 10K in with around 3-5K operating at any one time. With this force they've killed around 500 and advanced around 10km.
If they had gone for the jugualr like they did in 1982, put 80K in, they would have killed upwards of 3K hezbollah and pushed them back to Beirut.
There would have have been way higher civilian casualties and IDF dead would be closer to 500 than to 50.
They would be in a much better position than they are now, though.
When the inquiry is made I suspect we'll find that Olmert, Peretz and Halutz simply went wobbly to use the Iron Lady's phrase. What a shame.
Hey, -tater:
Some of your Otter Cousins in Florida tried to take out a lady's dogs!
CNN has video of that lady and her dogs.
(she feels bad about punching the otter, so remember, -tater, she has the proper SUBMISSIVE attitude)
A Posse of WarPossumTaters.
Depending on the Polls, of course.
Bill Clinton's great policy produced 7 "terror free" years between WTC I and the end of his presidency.
(We won't count attacks on assets and allies overseas, or wars won and lost.
Won and lost is an archaic term.)
From the attack on the Morrow building in OK City, to the next attack on US soil was six years.
Because, cathrine, you misestimated the enmey's timeline for action does not give the Administration extra brownie points.
That there have been no major attacks is a good thing, but the Mohammedans did not have another strike waiting in the wings.
Besides if that were all there was as a matrix for success, by your admission, the war would be over.
I guess the only way to avoid hubris is by being negative. Constantly, remorselessly negative.
Got it.
Oh, and if you can find a flaw in my prediction, go for it. I'd love to talk about it. You can talk about whether it will work, though Rufus has already made many of the salient points on why it might not. But what I'm most interested in is whether the strategy I've formulated is our actual strategy, not whether it will work. You see, if it is our strategy, that means I'm seeing what the Administration sees. So by all means address that point, too.
You see, there is much confusion here about what we are doing diplomatically, and about whether we will force Israel into a premature ceasefire. Trying to figure out our plan and providing arguments for it doesn't, in this environment, seem especially hubristic--at least to me. To me, I welcome the diminution of uncertainty that a thoughtful, well-argued post can provide.
But by all means, skip over my posts in the future if they are not as morbid as you seemingly demand.
".. the Mohammedans did not have another strike waiting in the wings."
how would you know that, exactly?
Aristides,
I agree that Lebanon is still (precariously) in play.
How would you respond, however, to Omar's post linked above?
I feel rather ashamed at what we have become.
Sorry.
(once upon a time it was said only liberals never have to say:
"I was wrong.")
Damn Lawyers!
(ex-dems, too!)
Catherine wrote:
That brings to mind how another 9-11 type attack never occurred in the States over the past five years, as most of us expected would happen by now. Must mean the Muslim America haters are just being kind and has nothing whatsoever to do with our failed President's failed policies, failed security measures, failed diplomacy and failed wars.
Well, what do you expect? The 24 Hour Cable News Channels can't air a loop of nothing happening. But they do loop every video of blown up mosques, Old Glory burnings, head choppings, Korans fished out of the toilet, curious double-plumes over Beirut, and every Abu Grahib prisoner with panties on his head.
aristide,
If the US and it's allies had desired a wider war, the beginning of this episode gave it an opportunity to engage Syria.
We demurred from that option.
Instead we have destroyed Lebanon, it's part in the Democracy Project, flushed down the tube of military adventure, writ small.
The idea to fix and defeat HB militarily never came to reality. HB survives and in many ways propers in the current enviornment.
This has come as a shock in both Tel Aviv and DC, it seems to me.
The idea of influencing Doc Assad & the Mullahs with Allied military prowess against their proxy has run aground about 4km north of the Blue Line.
The past three weeks of military action has not reined in Iran, at least not publicly. They are as defiant as ever, their cascades still in operation.
Granted the "threat" of the HB rockets against Israel is nullified, as is the "threat" that the IAF could nuetralize Iran's nuclear program.
The IAF cannot even shut down HB's pickup truck driving, rocket launching scientists in a 50 square mile zone, minutes from the IAF airfeld.
The rise of Mr al-Sadr, as a mirror image to HB is disquieting. That senior members of the Iraqi Government supports HB is no shock to me, the resumes of the players foretold it.
The failures of US training of the ISF was also well discussed, previously, now those chickens are coming home to roost. The Iraqi politicos blame US Commanders for not unleashing the Security forces and ending the violence. Which has now claimed some 12,000 civilian lives. The equivalent of 144,000 US civilians lost in 100 days.
Perhaps this is all part of some greater play, but seems to be more a continued series of setbacks and failures to the policies that were implemented during the past 40 months.
Perhaps there will be a "Night of Redemtion" where it all is "made right", but the US has never behaved in that manner previously, I see no reason for US to buck the trends.
It would not seem prudent to assume we will.
The Mohammedan battleplan was published and studied, years ago, both pre and post 9-11.
Take the time to ferret it out, it was online. The plans are there to be read, they have been following them with some degree of success.
Look to Somalia and Lebanon and Iraq and Afghanistan and Bagladesh and Pakistan and Sudan for examples of their forward movement.
Look to the Green Zone in Baghdad to find ours.
'Rat raises many pertinent objections, and I have learned many things from listening to him and following his links, but I think he is too pessimistic.
(But I am a cockeyed optimist--
Immature and incurably green;
They say the human race
Has fallen on its ...
Oh, stop, already!)
Anyway, this piece from Strategy Page (excerpted below), does point to a few telling historical facts, for what they may be worth:
But going to war with Israel, as any historian of Arab-Israeli relations can tell you, is a losing proposition. The Israelis are famously not stupid, and take any attack on them as a threat to their very existence. These are not the kind of people you want to fight a war with. But Hizbollah thought they had no other choice (there weren't even many options), and now has to stick it out and hope for the best. Hope won't do them much good. While the Hizbollah rocket arsenal is a new touch, it's not like the Israelis have not dealt with new terrorist tricks before. While journalists are keen to figure out what the Israelis are up to, many of the Israeli counter-terror innovations only work if they are kept under wraps for as long as possible. Pundits love this, because they can spout whatever they want, secure in the knowledge that few people will remember that they were way off the mark.
But if you pay close attention, you can figure out who is going to win, and how they are going to do it. The Israelis are hitting Hizbollah where they are vulnerable, but are not broadcasting the target list ahead of time, for obvious reasons. Just like a few years ago, months of seemingly ineffective efforts will suddenly produce results. That has happened before, terrorist victories have not.
Jamie Irons
Michael McCanles wrote:
Don't think that the left-wing version of "blaming the victim" (i.e., the victim justly retaliated against by the downtrodden) can't swallow all of the above w/o even the hint of making a face.
The only left-wingers who matter now are the ones living in their own little dream world on the topless beaches of Tel Aviv. Yoni Tidi figures when the rockets start hitting their coffee shops and discos and hotels we should see a wake up and some proper action.
Michael,
Don't know if it's still there on the home page, but CNN had a video of an interview with Netanyahu.
The InfoBabe kept pushing the line you refer to.
Bibi of course would have nothing of it, but she insisted on rudely talking over him throughout.
Precious "facts:"
"But human rights groups are saying that."
---
(Israel is just as much a terrorist entity as the Hezzies.)
Ahh, good Doctor, they tell of past seemingly ineffective efforts that suddenly bear fruit.
On a local, Israeli level, this may be true.
On a Global level the basic premise of your link "That has happened before, terrorist victories have not."
Military victories have been achieved by the Mohammedans in Somalia, Sudan, Warizistan, amongst the Nation States.
Political victories have been achieved, by the Mohammedans, in Iraq and Palistine. Bet that they will fare well in Lebanon, likely as not.
Depends upon the perspective.
Jamie,
re:
"Oh, stop, already!"
---
Eric Berne, Arssociety!
Just don't let your relatives from last night hear about that, Rufus.
It's a little known fact that in Noah's day they had topless beaches on Mount Ararat...
Jamie Irons
Michael McCanles said...
Betrayal alert: Op-ed commentators are beginning to say the unsayable: perhaps it was best that Israel not have come into existence in the first place.
**********
1948 Israel, no accident.
Bless Israel, you're blessed. Curse Israel, and you're cursed.
Secularists: grrrrrrrr*+^($#@!%^&*, who is this idiot? Gosh & golly, do you think Israel can't do no wrong?
O/T, Ann Coulter said: "Cynthia McKinney: One of the most intelligent Democrats in the country." Brilliant cut, even passes PC standards.
Back On/T:
"We're Marching to Zion"
Text: Isaac Watts; refrain by Robert Lowry
1. Come, we that love the Lord,
and let our joys be known;
join in a song with sweet accord,
join in a song with sweet accord
and thus surround the throne,
and thus surround the throne.
Refrain:
We're marching to Zion,
beautiful, beautiful Zion;
we're marching upward to Zion,
the beautiful city of God.
""Our plan is based on what the Lebanese want and on the demands of Hizbullah,"
the prime minister said in an interview with the French-language daily L'Orient Le Jour."
- Siniora, Man w/o a Country.
Sometimes it’s best to let the Olmert government speak for itself.
___A surprising remark was made Sunday evening by a minister who is a member in the political-security cabinet, who told Ynet: "No one knows what is going to happen. We are endlessly shooting, operating, and they continue to fire rockets. It's amazing. It is unclear what can be done anymore."
___The cabinet minister said he believes "the prime minister will try to operate to reach a diplomatic agreement that will cease the fire. At the moment we really don’t know what is going to happen, because everything we have tried to do didn’t help and the fire continues."
Despite difficult day: Israel waiting for UN
http://www.ynetnews.com/
articles/0,7340,L-3287433,00.
html
If part of the much debated master victory plan is to make the Olmert government look hopelessly incompetent, it is succeeding brilliantly. A few more days like this and the Israeli government will appear down right French. At that point, no doubt, we will spring the trap on those “wascally wabbits”.
Israel backs down: UNIFIL stays
w w w . h a a r e t z . c o m
Last update - 11:31 06/08/2006
Israel backs down: UNIFIL stays
By Amos Harel, Aluf Benn and Avi Issacharoff
Israel has lifted its demand for the deployment of a new multinational force in southern Lebanon and agreed that UNIFIL, the United Nations force already in place, would oversee the cease-fire.
http://www.yonitheblogger.com/
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said last week that Israel
"will not accept a force of the UNIFIL type, that was proven not to be effective.
The force that will be deployed will have to comprise of armies, not pensioners who come to vacation in southern Lebanon, but real soldiers capable of fighting."
The Great Game - BEIRUT, Lebanon -
First time I've read Sites in years:
Reads just like MSM.
db2m said:
1948 Israel, no accident.
Bless Israel, you're blessed. Curse Israel, and you're cursed.
That's a pretty funky bible you're reading from. My King James Bible doesn't say anything about blessing or cursing Israel, but it does have God telling Abraham:
Genesis 12:[3] And I will bless them that bless thee, and curse him that curseth thee: and in thee shall all families of the earth be blessed.
Now dig this: Arabs are descended from Abraham too.
doug said:
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said last week that Israel "will not accept a force of the UNIFIL type, that was proven not to be effective. The force that will be deployed will have to comprise of armies, not pensioners who come to vacation in southern Lebanon, but real soldiers capable of fighting."
Yeah, Israel is having her pensioners vacation in southern Lebanon instead of fighting right now, and it ain't working too good.
Promethea:
Another game might be called "Israelis and Other Jews Still Here." As long as we're still here, we've won, and the Islamofascists have lost. Bwaaaahahahahaha!
Exactly!
I just love it that our very existence raises the Islamoid blood pressure.
These people are fools (wily and determined fools, to be sure, but fools nonetheless), and they can't see that their perennial misdirected anger utterly hamstrings their development.
My favorite facts include:
(1) South Korea has forty times the patents (per year? I'm uncertain of the denominator) of the entire Islamic world.
(2) More books are translated every year into Greek (the language of a tiny fraction of the world's population) than are translated into Arabic.
But none of that matters, as long as you can dedicate your life to killing Jews.
Jamie Irons
NEW YORK, Aug. 6 /U.S. Newswire/ -- The American Jewish Committee (AJC) is deeply concerned about the vandalism perpetrated at a Jewish mortuary chapel and cemetery in Sylmar, Calif. Law enforcement is investigating the attack as a serious hate crime.
Yesterday, the chapel at Sholom Memorial Park cemetery in the San Fernando Valley was vandalized, with extensive damage to Jewish ritual objects, caskets, pews and other furniture. Local media reported damage is estimated at $50,000.
The cemetery vandalism comes a month after Temple Beth David, a synagogue in the San Fernando Valley, suffered serious damage in a fire set on July 9. Anti-Semitic graffiti was found on the synagogue's windows. This attack also is being investigated by law enforcement as a serious hate crime.
http://releases.usnewswire.com/GetRelease.asp?id=70331
Trangbang:
Ever gone to a physical therapist?
I just about killed myself taking Ibuprofen, so decided I'd give that a try:
No Pills, no pain, in one month.
Same for my wife and a workmate, so this lady is 3 for 3 in our experience.
Simple stretches and excercises, but my wife's are totally different than mine:
Her back was too flexible, mine WAS too stiff.
Obviously I'm now a believer.
('Rat will say I'm headed for eventual paralysis ;-)
...the timing remains in doubt, however.
So "now we know" WHY baby doc likes blowing up Israeli Civilians!
Now perhaps the good Dr will reveal baby's "good reasons" for blowing up Iraqis and our GI's?
gag me
Stay tuned
---
Sunday, August 06, 2006
Lebanese Anger
Someone asked why I don't discuss Syria's role in this war. Gideon Levy does just that in this fine article. Syria's policy toward Israel is simple. It will make life as difficult for Israel as it possibly can without confronting it directly, which it hasn't the power or military to do. It will support radical Palestinian organizations, Hizbullah and other opponents of Israel so long as the Golan is occupied and it hasn't reached a satisfactory peace agreement. This is not a mystery. It is what Syria claims it does. Bashar al-Asad has stated his price, which is the Golan to the 1967 borders. Syria is willing to make significant security guarantees to Israel in order to achieve this and might well accept a special regime for the strip of land running along the Syrian side of the Jordan River. Israel doesn't want to pay the price and believes it can thwart Syria's provocations at an acceptable cost.
The Lebanese have been caught in the middle of this conflict for years and are again paying the price for it.
http://faculty-staff.ou.edu/L/Joshua.M.Landis-1/syriablog/
"Only by establishing sovereign UN recognized international borders will the radicalism of the region begin to drain out of it. In the long run, this is the only solution to Lebanon's long trail of tears as the victim of the Arab-Israeli conflict. That – and renegotiating the Taif Accords."
---
Gee, no mention of IRAN.
And HE's the ex spurt.
Go Figure.
The real estate war
Aug 7, 006 - Haaretz
By Gideon Levy
This miserable war in Lebanon, which is just getting more and more complicated for no reason at all, was born in Israel's greed for land. Not that Israel is fighting this time to conquer more land, not at all, but ending the occupation could have prevented this unnecessary war. If Israel had returned the Golan Heights and signed a peace treaty with Syria in a timely fashion, presumably this war would not have broken out.
Yeah, EMP bursts over and around the oilfields should reduce discomfort.
---
Appointment In Damascus
In March I asked an old friend what he though would happen in Lebanon.
'It's not Syria's problem anymore,'
he told me. 'We gave Lebanon to Iran.'
trangbang68 said:
Now if I could just find a cure for this existential angst.Maybe a nuke burst for Islammation.
Sarah-dipitously, that remedy was prescribed earlier.
The Plan
We promote democracy, but empower the Mohammedans. In both Lebanon and Iraq. Palistine, too.
So now it's down to 40,000 marchers, just twice the Sunni Insurgent force, so not to worry.
The Iranians will not obtain a nuclear weapon, means War against Iran. Nothing less. Each day we wait we lose more of the inititive, left to react not act. War with Iran means waging a War unlike the US has waged in 50 years, one we will have to win, quickly, we are not ready. We have not won a war in over 60 years.
Blame whomever you want.
The Democracy Project, the US Foreign Policy Inititive for the new millenium, is a busted wagon in just 3 years. The ISF unable to secure it's own Capital, the Iraqi Government impotent in it's own bed, while a secular democratic Beirut is a distant memory.
The Israeli choose the time and the place for the War, while the timing was right, the choice of place and foe was an error. Quite evidently so, now.
So now rufus tells US that the Dempcracy Project was a sham, a false front that makes no difference in the "Long Run".
That Somalia, like Afghanistan before it, just another shitty little country of no importance. Just like Afghanistan on 9-10-01.
Who has a pre 9-11 mentality?
Name a Country, any country, where the Mohammedans have been rolled back. Where converting to Christ is not a death sentence, as it is in Afghanistan. Where the Government Ministers, while spending US dollars are supporting radical Mohammedans, like in Iraq.
Not Terrorists, as HB does not qualify for that designation by the UN, EU or Iraq.
The bragging rights for doubling the cost of oil, in just three years, that is sure to be high on the Campaign Slogan list.
Vote Republican we'll double the cost of Gasoline, AGAIN!
Call Karl, I do not think he or Mr Luntz will okay that as a Republican rally cry.
The "it would have been worse" is not going to sell, not in this part of the Country, anyway.
We'll see how it sells in CT, on Tuesday.
And then with this, the Oil Gods are smiling, just not sure at whom.
Major Alaskan Oil Field Shutting Down
That's 400,000 barrels per day, 2.6% of total US usage, down for an indeterminate length of time.
"Oil prices could increase by as much as $10 per barrel given the current environment," Emori said. "But we can't really say for sure how big an effect this is going to have until we have more exact figures about how much production is going to be reduced."
Malone said the field will not resume operating until the company and government regulators are satisfied it can run safely without threatening the environment.
Officials at BP, a unit of the London-based company BP PLC (BP), learned Friday that data from an internal sensing device found 16 anomalies in 12 locations in an oil transit line on the eastern side of the field. Follow-up inspections found "corrosion-related wall thinning appeared to exceed BP criteria for continued operation," the company said in a release. ..."
DR,
You ask to name a country where Jihad has been rolled back. Curiously, one such country is Syria.
In 1982 Hafez Assad faced a growing Jihad threat. How did he solve it? He killed over 20K in a few days and reduced their stronghold to rubble and paved it over into a giant asphalt lot.
Syria hasn't been bothered by Jihad since.
Perhaps Olmert and Bush could stand to learn from Assad.
The West needs to come to terms with the fact that defeating Jihad will require killing tens of millions, including millions of civilians.
It will not be pretty. There will be a lot more Qanas.
We need to realize the seriousness of the threat and recognize what needs to be done.
Unfortunately our leaders have not recognized it themselves and have failed to notify the public.
I have said for years that only after another 9/11, only after another mass casualty event will we wake up and demand victory.
Not hitting us again was the smartest move Jihad ever made. As long they keep quiet and maintain the status quo, they're set.
In a further irony, while it's obvious that there's plenty of guys in the Green Zone and in Centcom that have no clue how to handle Jihad, the one guy that does sits in a cell in Baghdad Int'l Airport.
Perhaps Abizaid, Casey and Pace should have a sitdown with Saddam. He knew how to handle things.
The times Sarah refers to from the Baer piece linked above:
---
"When the last Syrian tank rattled across the border last year, Syria fell back on a policy of trying to seal itself off from the chaos it could see building around it in Iraq and Lebanon.
Bashar al-Assad especially fears the sort of crisis his father confronted in February 1982, when an insurrection backed by the Muslim Brotherhood broke out in Hamah.
Assad senior contained it by flattening the town with heavy artillery. Combing through the rubble, the Syrians were astonished to find that the rebels' weapons had come from Lebanon.
With no strong central government, it had become a failed state, an open arms bazaar and a haven for terrorists the world over.
Today Syria sees history repeating itself, only worse."
It does. As long as 5 guys die here in Iraq, 3 guys there. A few hundred in Madrid here, 60 in London there, people don't care.
That level has become accepted over the past few years as part of the deal of life. It's like auto accidents or hurricanes or what have you. Things like that will happen, but there not really big deals.
If AQ or Iran or whoever did a 9/11 sequel and killed say 5K or 10K or more, the public would demand vengeance. They would demand quick and swift retaliation.
What benefit does Jihad gain by that?
Right now their plan is to wait us out in Afghanistan and Iraq, while shifting their bases to Somalia and points eastward, maintain their bases in Pakistan and continue to do the death by 1000 cuts strategy.
I'd say it's working thus far.
Sarah wrote:
"The West needs to come to terms with the fact that defeating Jihad will require killing tens of millions, including millions of civilians."
This is just plain nuts. Loony tunes. And flat-out more genocidal, vicious, and blood-thirsty than anything I've heard from out so-called "enemies."
Sarah continues:
"Not hitting us again was the smartest move Jihad ever made. As long they keep quiet and maintain the status quo, they're set."
WTF? I think the point is that we don't want them to hit us again. That's why we're supposedly engaging in GWOT, created a homeland security department, and so forth.
This is just nuts. Your approach seems to be that you want genocide no matter what. You seem to be openly advocating the worst machinations attributed to the neoconservatives by conspiracy theorists.
The defeat of jihad will not require murdering tetns of millions. The defeat of jihad is what is required if we wish to keep from killing them.
Read some Sun-Tzu.
For that matter, read some Jesus Christ.
I'm horrifed.
Sarah also wrote:
"it's obvious that there's plenty of guys in the Green Zone and in Centcom that have no clue how to handle Jihad, the one guy that does sits in a cell in Baghdad Int'l Airport [Saddam].
Perhaps Abizaid, Casey and Pace should have a sitdown with Saddam. He knew how to handle things."
Is anyone other than me not at all shocked that we have someone in here who is admiring a brutal dictator, representing a party (Ba'ath) that is a descendant of the Nazis?
By Sarah's logic, OIF wasn't to get rid of a brutal dictator in order to create a more harmonious middle east. No, the problem was that Saddam wasn't evil enough and that the US needed to get rid of him in order to "handle things."
Good God.
We need to eliminate vicious repressive murderous tyrants so that we can become more vicious repressive and murderous!
I'm traumatized. This makes Japanese militarism, Nazism, and Communism seem downright sociable.
Now look what you've done, Sarah!
Listen, James, there may not be any trains in Baghdad, but if there had been, Saddam would have had them running on time!
Here's my favorite Adnan Hajj picture of a BURNING KORAN
___Ace___ has the details on the likelihood of this shot being authentic.
MALKIN has dozens of links to more photoshop hijinks.
Were Roosevelt, Truman and Churchill genocidal, bloodthirsty and vicious? Perhaps. But they were also victorious.
If they don't want to hit us again have we really done much to stop them? It's like saying that China hasn't attacked us or Indua hasn't nuked us becuase of our great strategy and tatcics. I'm suggesting the reason we haven't been hit has more to do with them than us, or at least it's in equipoise.
I don't wqant genocide, I want victory or as FDR called for "absolute victory" in his speech on Pearl Harbor. An election in Iraq is far from "absolute victory".
Jihad can only be defeated by killing them. By killing lots of them, before they kill lots of us.
You be horrified, I'll take victory. Or do you still cry at night for the German women and children slaughterd and maimed by Roosevelt's war machine?
As for Saddam, DR had asked for examples where Jihad was rolled back. I simply pointed out that Saddam and ASsad Sr seemed to do quite well at rolling at vack and that we might be able to learn from them. There was obviously some level of facetiousness there.
You win wars by being more vicious than your enemy. More murderous. By killing him until he surrenders.
We seem to have forgotten that lesson as of August 1945. Until we remember it, this war will continue.
The point with Saddam and Assad was to show that Jihad can be rolled back, that it can be stopped. There is precedent for it.
Even Khomeini got to the point where he drank from the poison chalice. I suspect Khameini and Ahmadinejad would do the same. The question is what it will take to get them to that point.
And are we willing to go there?
Ot
La Raza’ schools: Your tax dollars at work
By Michelle Malkin
Top White House adviser Karl Rove traveled to Los Angeles this week to pay homage to the anti-immigration enforcement lobbying group for Latinos: the National Council of La Raza.
It's bad enough the White House lent its prestige to The Race's annual conference. But did you know the Bush administration has forked over millions of federal tax dollars directly to The Race?
According to GOP Rep. Charlie Norwood of Georgia, The Race snapped up $15.2 million in federal grants last year alone and more than $30 million since 1996. Undisclosed amounts went to get-out-the-vote efforts supporting La Raza political positions. The U.S. Department of Education funneled nearly $8 million in taxpayer grants to the group for a nationwide charter schools initiative.
(Gee in ONE year, Trustworthy Georgetm forked over as much money as Clinton and he did in the last 9!)
Among The Race's most infamous government-funded charter schools is La Academia Semillas del Pubelo, the Los Angeles public school that teaches "Aztec math" (ancient dot math is the new math) and the Mexican indigenous language of "Nahuatl." The ethnic separatist principal of the school, Marcos Aguilar, told a sympathetic UCLA interviewer:
"We don't want to drink from a White water fountain, we have our own wells and our natural reservoirs and our way of collecting rain in our aqueducts. We don't need a White water fountain…We are not interested in what they have because we have so much more and because the world is so much larger. And ultimately the White way, the American way, the neo liberal, capitalist way of life will eventually lead to our own destruction."
That's the tip of the iceberg. I found dozens of others...
...Under "greatest achievements," the school's website lists its participation in a "Peace & Dignity Run;" its visit from Rigoberta Menchu (the Marxist academic fraud from Guatemala who lied her way to a Nobel Peace Prize); and its sponsorship of the local annual Día de los Muertos (the Mexican holiday).
The White House will tell you that The National Council of The Race is a "moderate," mainstream civil rights group. But there's nothing "moderate" about The Race's advocacy of driver's licenses and in-state tuition discounts for illegal aliens. Or its opposition to strengthening security for identity documents and improving cooperation on immigration enforcement between state, local, and federal enforcement immigration officials. Or its all-out war on the House GOP's border security and enforcement-first bill passed last December.
President Bush pays lip service to immigration enforcement and assimilation, while the White House sends Karl Rove to make nice with the separatist leaders of The Race and the Bush Education Department showers our tax dollars on radical Reconquista schools. It doesn't add up.
Unless, of course, you're using Aztec math.
"You be horrified, I'll take victory. "
I'm afraid that your idea of victory would mean that all is lost. I mean, really, there's nothing I've ever read from any jihadi that is as blood-thirsty as what I've read from you.
You've termed your enemy as "jihad." Yet there's no reason to believe that "tens of millions" are apart of this phantom jihad.
Islamic fascists represent a great danger and a great potential for harm. But they certainly do not measure in the tens of millions. And we don't need to kill tens of millions of people in order to stop jihad. If we do get to the point of needing to, it represents a catastrophic strategic failure on our part.
Victory? For me, victory over jihad is not to be obtained by murdering more innocent people than the Nazis managed. Victory is bringing the muslim world into a more harmonious relationship with the rest of the world. Victory is not seeing my country create history's greatest atrocity. Victory is maintaining a civilization that is morally superior.
For me, this fight is not about defeating the enemy. It's about protecting and preserving what I love, a civilization, society, and set of values unique in history. The enemy only needs to be defeated to the extent of reducing or removing his ability to destroy what I cherish. I fear that if our country went down the road you seem to be prescribing that my country and what I value in it would be destroyed. And hence my horror.
The horror does not rise from the bloody reality of war, nor does it rise from realizing that it may need to get very bloody indeed and many innocent people could get caught up in it. No, the horror comes from the idea of that disappearing which I feel is worth fighting for.
Some have criticized the left for not understanding that our survival is threatened. But in reality, that's nonsense. Even if the jihadis created a caliphate from Spain to the Phillipines, our survival would not be threatened. Submit to Islam and you survive. What would be threatend would be our values and our identity. And we'd have to destroy those things ourselves to engage in your final solution.
Doug,
Unfortunately, it does add up. There's been a lot of talk about school vouchers and charter schools and all of that by many on the political right. The left is simply moving to take advantage of it.
None of this is to say that I agree with La Raza or the educational goals. But the right wanted to fight the left's conquest of public education by moving to a system whereby the government doled out money to private schools. Consider this an unintended consequence.
Scary stuff.
---
Speaking of Mrs Malkin, she's going to be on the Bill Bennet show this morning.
If you think there's a Red-Blue divide now, you ain't seen nothin' yet.
The UN General Assembly, which is 25%+ Arab/Muslim, will spearhead a drive to deligitimize and dismantle the State of Israel. The European Union will support that drive along with the usual suspect media outlets in the USA and Europe.
Iran will continue to spin its centrifuges under the cover of the Israel Debate and when the proper messianic time has arrived close the debate with a nuclear strike on Tel Aviv. Israel will respond. Most of Iran will disappear. Islam will survive. Iranawhackjob and the mullahs will have fulfilled their destiny and be welcomed by Allah as loving martyrs.
That's where we are heading.
Desert Rat said:
"We promote democracy, but empower the Mohammedans. In both Lebanon and Iraq. Palistine, too.
So now it's down to 40,000 marchers, just twice the Sunni Insurgent force, so not to worry.
The Iranians will not obtain a nuclear weapon, means War against Iran. Nothing less. Each day we wait we lose more of the inititive, left to react not act. War with Iran means waging a War unlike the US has waged in 50 years, one we will have to win, quickly, we are not ready. We have not won a war in over 60 years."
Someone will have to explain to me where he is wrong. All the nonsense about massive carpet bombings and disparaging of potential and current allies cannot refute DR's observation about the US not winning a war in over 60 years.
WWII may have ended with Germany and Japan, but the proxy war with Russia and communism began immediately and in less than five years, we were in hot war again in Korea. All the weaponry and fighting bought was a draw. Fifty million WWII deaths, yet in less than five years lasting peace proved to be an illusion.
These were wars about ideology. Nazism and Facism, then Communism, now radical Islam, again a new socialism rising in Latin America, a resurgent Russia and a rising Communist China, are all part of the mix. Like a fourteen year old discovering the previously unknown to the world, mystery of sex, we elected a president that discovered the healing powers of democracy. (It would be interesting to see the accumulated pile of books that George read that gave him this insight.) GWB never heard a single shot fired in combat. He surrounded himself with others of similar qualifications and decided to take us to war in Iraq to spread the news.
We threw our ideology into the mix and expected it to disinfect the Islamic world, Russia, China etc. etc. It does not seem to be working. The answer suggested by some here in BC is the Lt. William Calley Solution, Did I hear someone say DR was a pessimist? There is no single winning military startegy. There is no simple answer at all. There are achievable acceptable goals, but none as as simple or as exciting as the rumble and light show of the arc light playing in some of our minds.
sarah said:
You win wars by being more vicious than your enemy. More murderous. By killing him until he surrenders.
Well, that's the funny thing, Sarah, since you state that our enemy is "Jihad" and since Jihad is the struggle mandated by Islam for each individual Muslim against the infidel until every last infidel surrenders to Allah, your solution is to go on killing until every single Muslim either surrenders or is dead. You would turn the whole world into a graveyard.
Within 6 months time, Iran will resupply all weapons used by hizbullah and destroyed by IDF. Western money will help rebuild Lebanon but hizbullah will simply occupy the buildings they need to reconstitute themselves. If the Chrisitans and Druze would not take them on during Israel's engagement with them, they sure won't be able to resist much over their property being confiscated, will they? Within a year, hizbullah will be about as strong as it was prior to the war and will have almost total control over Lebanon. Why wouldn't they? I think this was the last 'shot' the West had over there. Lebanon should have been totally destabalized and Syria crippled. All this has done is to give hizbullah the impetus to totally control Lebanon - they have to now because Israel weakened them. Once there is a cease fire, we can expect some serious blood letting in Lebanon, and the international force can't and won't do a thing about it. then after 3-4 years and these nations get tired of spending all their money on the Southern border of Lebanon, they will leave, saying it's secure and peaceful now. Then hizbullah will simply reoccupy the zone. Why wouldn't they? This current war is about like a knife fight, in which the unarmed man (Israel) punches the guy with the knife in the stomach, but he is still standing and still has the knife in his hand.
Remember how we were going to put Iraqi infrastructure back in order?
New Worry for Drivers: BP Shuts Alaska Oilfield
In a blow to drivers already struggling with high gas prices, BP shut off about 8 percent of the U.S. oil supply after discovering "unexpectedly severe corrosion" in the Alaska pipeline. BP announced early today that the pipeline problems had caused it to begin shutting down the biggest oilfield in the United States, Alaska's Prudhoe Bay.
It is hard to make this stuff up.
Fair or not. Logical or not. The leaking pipeline will quickly become a metaphor for Republican chances of maintaining Congress. Oil leaking into sands. First the method of paying for the Iraq war and now the method of paying to get to work. I can hear the Howard Dean yeehaww from here.
We have not won a war in over 60 years."
"Someone will have to explain to me where he is wrong."
Ask the South Koreans, the Eastern Europeans, the Kuwaitis, and Saddam Hussein.
North and South Korea- unresolved.
Eastern Europe - promising but watch
Ukraine.
Kuwait and Iraq? - who knows where.
You make a legitimate point, but I believe the implication was reliance on military victories as the method of solving conflicts and how they relate to the ME. The discussion being about WWII type endings.
bridget wrote:
We have not won a war in over 60 years."
"Someone will have to explain to me where he is wrong."
Ask the South Koreans, the Eastern Europeans, the Kuwaitis, and Saddam Hussein.
We have not declared a war in over sixty years. Nothing but police actions, operation desert this and that, and tails wagging the dog.
The South Koreans, my father went there to fight the Northerners, I went there to defend the South against the Horth, my son returned from there, on the same mission just months ago. That War is not done, re. Mr Bush & "Axis of Evil", Charter member. State ofWar still exists.
Over fifty years and still the NorKs are near the top of the "Hit" parade. That is not Victory, it's stalemate and stagnation.
Eastern Europeans, look to the results in Ukraine, the Russian man is in power, now. The US has nothing goin' on there now. Especialy not anything defined as a War Victory.
Saddam? One would hope that the US could do more than catch the "Bad Guy". Securing the Country afterwards, that is a requirement of Victory, it has never happened in Iraq.
Kuwait, one battle in a twenty year war, does not Victory acheive. The enemy in Kuwait survived and prospered, his Forces still a threat. Just like HB in Lebanon, today.
If those are the examples of US winning, Iran will be a disaster. Because in each other stated case, the can was merely kicked down the road.
goesh said:
This current war is about like a knife fight, in which the unarmed man (Israel) punches the guy with the knife in the stomach, but he is still standing and still has the knife in his hand.
I wonder what happened to the "Bush Doctrine" that says we shoot the guy before he even brandishes his official Axis-of-Evil knife? If the Republicrats don't do something quick maybe I'll stay home in November so the Demlicans can have a turn.
Bridget,
I disagree as to this being "exactly like the cold war."
The opposition is not as organized or sophisticated as the soviet union. War is a reflection of technology, both directly in battle and the effect of technology on social organization, productivity, and propaganda. Additionally, the global environment is considerably different. These are critical, defining factors of which the two conflicts share no parallels.
Nor is there any reason to assume that this fight will consist of battles and wars for decades.
In the late 1990s, AQ type movements were already failing. That's why OBL and co ended up in Afghanistan: they failed elsewhere and populations turned against them.
There may indeed be a long-term struggle against Islam, but Islam itself will not collapse through its failure as an ideology. Islam is remarkably robust and still showing strong growth.
In the long term, if anything, the West will collapse through failure to reproduce sufficiently on a biological level and a failure to hold onto its core values. There is sufficient evidence of this already. If there is to be a failure of ideology, that failure will likely be in the West.
Ultimately, there is little military challenge here. Some raids, clever intel gathering, and a re-thinking of defense away from things like defending coasts with industrial age navies to things like defending important pieces of infrastructure from terrorism/sabotage, to developing a compelling psychological warfare strategy to keep violent extremists from gaining prestige and power. And most importantly, a new renaissance will be required in the west in order to regain its confidence in its own value.
Most of the battle needs to be fought with memes, not machine guns. Our weaknesses are not our external lines but our internal fissions.
desert rat wrote:
Securing the Country afterwards, that is a requirement of Victory, it has never happened in Iraq...If those are the examples of US winning, Iran will be a disaster.
Then we should implement the Teresita Doctrine before we go to Iran. The Teresita Doctrine says there shall be no more roaring mice, no more Katrina style nation-building.. The Teresita Doctrine says if victory requires securing the country afterwords, then take "victory" and stuff it. The Teresita Doctrine says we may not be able to declare a victory, but its sure going to suck when you try to rebuild your whole country from the molecules left over after we get through with it.
peterboston said:
Iran will continue to spin its centrifuges under the cover of the Israel Debate and when the proper messianic time has arrived close the debate with a nuclear strike on Tel Aviv. Israel will respond. Most of Iran will disappear. Islam will survive.
Judaism survived the sack of Jerusalem in 70 AD because it had already morphed under the Babylonian Exile. Catholicism would survive the sack of Rome by barbarians because it has already done so. But one of the five pillars of Islam is the mandatory Haj, and it's kind of hard to do a Haj when the Israelis (either in situ or as a government-in-exile with submarines) take a page from Hezbollah's playbook and keep smacking Mecca with nuclear-tipped Jericho IIs.
novangli
There is some truth to what you say, but the victories there, Eastern Europe, were more the cause of battles james kielland describes as "fought with memes, not machine guns".
That will not be an option if the Iranians are to be denied a nuclear weapon. A military response is all that will stop them. Any strike or series of strikes that does not remove the Iranians from the equation will not be a victory.
To fulfill Mr Bush's pledge of a nuclear free Iran, millions of people will have to die. Unless the Shah's son can fulfill his promises the King returns?.
Time will tell.
Scott at Powerline has excerpts from a Brooks’ on-background interview with a diplomat believed by Scott to be Secretary Rice.
If true, the diplomat behaves in a manner consistent with my opinion of the good Doctor.
If not Dr. Rice, her subordinate behaves in a manner consistent with my opinion of the good Doctor.
Read it and weep.
Oh, and indeed, the State Department apparently does have a victory plan; it’s just not all that secret or clever.
CONDI SPEAKS (I THINK), ON BACKGROUND
http://www.powerlineblog.com/
James Kielland (6:40):
I like much of what you say here; it's astonishing to me how poorly we are doing in the "meme war."
My late father-in-law was an advertising genius with McCann-Erickson, and came up with such world-changing slogans
;-)
as "Things go better with Coke" and "Put a tiger in your tank." (That last one we might think of reviving now that the Prudhoe fields are hors du combat, though I supppose the enviros would be up in arms.)
Where is Madison Avenue?
Or at least, the kind of screwy genius that used to be found on Madison Avenue, which could be redeployed to effectively help the world to see the jihadis as the depraved, debased and vicious morons they are?
Jamie Irons
Bridget,
I stand corrected and apologize. Lack of sleep combined with too many simultaneous conversations and too much work.
I rather like the Teresita Doctrine.
Combined with a more intense, and way more effective, Meme War, we might yet win this thing.
The Islamic Fascists gave us a huge gift, which we failed to follow up on, with their trumped-up rage over the Mohammed cartoons.
Why aren't we stirring them up more?
When I lived for a while in Morocco, I learned an Arab proverb: No man is always angry.
(Yes, I know -- an Arab proverb!)
We ought to be keeping them in a permanent state of rage and frustration, by mercilessly mocking them, till they start to look silly even to themselves.
What are they going to do? Dress up some Arab pop star in a crown of thorns and have her pretend she's being crucified?
Oh, wait -- we already did that to ourselves.
Jamie Irons
Jamie,
Well, let's ask ourselves that. Why aren't we fighting a more effective war? Why are we told so often that this fight will go on forever? People seem convinced that this is a new cold war and it will go on for decades.
And how effectively is this war being fought? Not all that effectively, I would say. Have we yet caught Osama? Have we yet caught Zawahiri? Did we ever find a single "vast tunnel complexes", massive bunkers filled with generators, tanks, provisions, etc., in Afghanistan of the many that were purported to be there?
Has there been a single terrorist attack on US soil of any real significance other than things like the attack at the Jewish Center in Seattle last week? I mean, that was just a guy who came unhinged. Hardly an example of a trained operative working under the auspices of an international organization supposedly having active "tentacles" and "cells" in over 60 countries.
Pulling off a simple terrorist attack in the United States would be rather easy for even a half-dozen moderately trained individuals using materials they could easily acquire with little or no suspicion. And yet this hasn't happened. In fact, no one has been convicted of even trying to make such a thing happen.
There's so little evidence of Al Qaida any more that people hardly even speak of it. Now they talk about a vague "islamo-fascism" that is somehow going to come get us. But it hasn't.
If, following 9-11, the US only went into Afghanistan and cleared it out, and HAD NOT INVADED Iraq, would there have been ANY Americans who had died facing this implacable, dangerous, vicious foe?
Think of it. After the routing of Taliban and a few battles in Shahi-Kot and the like, no significant numbers of Americans have died have died in combat with the forces of Al Qaida or Islamofascism.. outside of Iraq.
The biggest events have been Madrid and London 7-7. Madrid being the work of some clear free-lance agents. London being the work of home-grown agents.
Outside of Iraq, have any American bases been attacked? Any embassies? Have any American diplomats been taken hostage? Assasinated?
This is not to downplay what's occured in Iraq. But Iraq was a completely elective war that was either based on highly exaggerated evidence or a claim to "re-make the arab world" via democracy and all of that. As Bush said prior to the beginning of OIF, "it will take place at a time of our choosing." The vast majority of American combat deaths that have occured after 9-11 have occured in Iraq and only a small percentage of those could be attributed to what is known as Al Qaida. The rest are the result of highly contending interests and fissions within Islam and in no way represent a unified "islamofascism."
None of this is to say that there are not some very evil muslims who would like to do great harm to the west. But so far, they've been remarkably ineffective. I'm unaware of any convictions within the US of AQ agents following 9-11. If there were sleeper cells one would think they would have done something by now.
Maybe we don't need a marketing genius to show us how vicious and depraved these morons are. They are plenty capable of demonstrating that clearly to everyone. There just doesn't seem to be too many of them floating around.
Perhaps the marketing genius consists of getting us to believe a moderate threat is far, far more threatening than it really is.
jamie irons,
re: PR
There has been no effective campaign because Mr. Bush began the war by anointing Islam “The Religion of Peace.”
This was the equivalent of FDR naming NAZI Germany and Imperial Japan as the relocation and real estate agents of the year.
As with so much else that we tend to overlook, the administration’s action was…
James,
Thanks for your answer.
You wrote:
Perhaps the marketing genius consists of getting us to believe a moderate threat is far, far more threatening than it really is...
Here we part company. There seems to be an almost infinite number of these fools floating around.
We are faced with a classic case of the interpretation of negative evidence: Because something has not happened, does that mean the threat was not there, or that our defenses against it have so far been effective?
One can often argue effectively either way.
As a physician, I see examples of this question every single day in my work; only rarely can one tease out the correct answer. (It's why placebo-controlled, randomized, prospective, double-blind clinical trials to evaluate the efficacy of drugs, for example, are so difficult, expensive and unsatisfactory.)
There is little question that there are plenty of people "floating around" who would like to see the US destroyed. And as way smarter people than me have pointed out, a confluence of islamo-fascist ideology, rogue states, international terror, and weapons of mass destruction, means we are facing a very, very serious threat.
Jamie Irons
... part of a "Grand Plan"
I'll continue...
Here we have Sarah gleefully describing the need to murder tens of millions of innocent people. For what? In response to all of the attacks on the continental US or US interests in last 5 years?
Yes, supposedly we need to murder tens of millions in order to taste "victory" in a contest where the dreaded opponent has completely disappeared from the US mainland after they vaporized themselves nearly 5 years ago.
Oh yes. This threat is so real, we are taking so many casualties, our entire existence is so completely threatened that we need to commit genocide. God help us.
Al Qaida has seemingly become so non-existent that even here at Belmont we've moved onto other things. Somehow, Israel's current problems with Hezbollah are the same fight. Oh, and Iran is connected to it to.
It seems to me that people are taking a wide set of only slightly related phenomenon and weaving it into a monolithic, implacable foe that somehow threatens our entire existence.
Islamofascism IS dangerous. Islamofascism will kill many innocent people in the coming years. Some Americans might get caught up in it. But as it stands right now, other muslims are the most likely victims of these creeps.
I see no compelling evidence whatsoever that we are necessarily going to be fighting these guys for decades nor that we're going to have to kills tens of millions to win.
The Jihad has figured out the key to winning the Long War.
Rather than bomb our cities, make our way of life unaffordable.
Bin Laden once said that $200/bbl oil was the "fair price".
The Iranians are working to make that happen. And they're smarter than bin Ladin as to how to do it.
War through proxy. No direct assaults on or in the US. Play games with the worthless UN to stall military action. Trade your oil in Euros instead of dollars. Coordinate with Chavez to cut off the US from supply.
They don't care if they kill the global economy in the process. If it brings the Great Satan down, it's worth it.
"I see no compelling evidence whatsoever that we are necessarily going to be fighting these guys for decades "
---
James,
What about the demographic trends in Europe?
The Hezbolllah Flag neath the tower of London?
(Galloway pledging allegiance to Hesbollah)
France Burning?
Amerika under siege by the PC Brigades and Azatland supporters?
brother d-day wrote:
The Jihad has figured out the key to winning the Long War. Rather than bomb our cities, make our way of life unaffordable. Bin Laden once said that $200/bbl oil was the "fair price".
That's a problem which provides its own solution. Our capitalist system adapts, you see. Before long, we'll be running cars on fuel derived from coal, and the US is the Saudi Arabia of coal.
Different guys,
in different locales,
doug.
"Process that addresses root causes." Ms Rice.
The root cause is the existence of Israel. Beyond that the discussions will be fruitful. The Arab League is meeting.
"As a physician, I see examples of this question every single day in my work; only rarely can one tease out the correct answer. (It's why placebo-controlled, randomized, prospective, double-blind clinical trials to evaluate the efficacy of drugs, for example, are so difficult, expensive and unsatisfactory.)"
---
Jamie,
I didn't know, til last night when I looked him up, that Eric Berne was denied entry into the SF psyc Association.
Nor did I know that early on he gave much credit to INTUITION.
---
...Our gut reactions often are responding to much more subtle input than our "rational" "minds."
jmo
---
There is no equivalence here with societies that raise their children on hate.
(Except soft-porn hate of the left)
Man, I love "Root Causes"
bring back Jocelyn Elders,
...or Deep Throat.
Dr. Rice and Jocelyn:
The intellectual pinhead and the moron,
both "African Americans."
Jamie,
Thanks for your answer.
We are facing a threat. We are facing some very mal-intentioned dudes. But I would say that we are largely facing a very, very POTENTIAL threat.
Consider what it would take to really inflict a serious blow on the United States. It would require taking out multiple cities. Which would require an extreme level of sophistication and planning and hardware. Which would require the support of at least one state, possibly more. Evidence of state involvement would be pretty easy to detect. And the responding state knows that our response would be horrific.
There is certainly a great potential threat that could manifest itself. But it's far from a foregone conclusion. And it's far from being a necessary conflict of civilizations.
We are talking about a fringe movement in the Muslim world that failed in their efforts so far in their own societies. Why was OBL in Afghanistan? He failed elsewhere. No one else would have him.
Even this latest drama in Israel, the kidnapping of the soldiers, is rather underwhelming. I mean no disrespect to the soldiers involved nor their families. But a few kidnapped soldiers? We have more police officers MURDERED in the line of duty each year in the US. Hezbollah rockets in Israel? Yes, it's terrible that scores of Israelis have been killed or injured. But it's nothing compared to the number of Americans murdered each year.
I'm not going to apologize for these thugs. I'm not going to say that they don't exist or that they don't mean us real harm. But perspective has got to be maintained. If we foolishly respond with aggression in a way that destroys the lives of more innocent people out of our fears of radically misperceived
threats, we could possibly create a self-fulfilling prophecy.
My concern is that people are getting a little too carried away and assuming that the enemy is larger, more deeply connected, more capable, and more monolithic than he really is. And in the process it could lead to our enemies goading us into doing that which will make their messages far more resonant with their intended audiences.
"a very, very POTENTIAL threat.
"
---
Someone equated demographics with an Iceberg a few days back, James, I liked that.
And you?
Insurance companies rely on statistics that are of large enough samples to be ironclad.
So do we.
are BASED ON large enough samples to be ironclad.
James,
Hezbollah rockets in Israel? Yes, it's terrible that scores of Israelis have been killed or injured. But it's nothing compared to the number of Americans murdered each year...
I am astonished that you would draw such a comparison.
Jamie Irons
NUKES
(aren't that unusual anymore)
Israel is a one-bomb country.
Long Beach is a one-bomb port.
The FACT that Israel CANNOT stop an ongoing rocket barrage proves a point:
Countries/entities with access to higher range/yield weapons are
DANGEROUS to children and other living things.
Doug,
As to the points you raise regarding Hezbollah flags, France burning, Azatlan, and so forth...
I do not wish to deny those things. However. . .
At one time we were talking about Al Qaida. That's seemingly gone away, even though the evidence of the original claims of its capabilites and threats were never really established. As I pointed out, we don't even have a simple conviction of some known AQ plotters.
The particular threats you raise are interesting because with AQ seemingly so irrelevant suddenly the bar is moved and the number of threats expanded and then linked. Hezbollah is no Al Qaida. Hezbollah doesn't even seem to directly be our problem; it's Israel's problem.
Now, I happen to like Israel quite a bit. But a shi'ite radical movement attacking Israel is not AQ attacking the US. And I think being too hasty to wrap all of these seperate factions into a single enemy quite possibly does more harm than good.
I understand your concerns with the specific threats mentioned. It is important to see interlocking threads and commonalities between threats. But my fear is that we are getting into a situation whereby if the threat doesn't seem sufficient we find other enemies to toss into same threat group. Hence your concerns about La Raza or the PC assault strike me. Going from 9-11 to PC and La Raza, all the while skipping Osama... we need to be careful of that.
(Al Q)
"even though the evidence of the original claims of its capabilites and threats were never really established. "
---
9-11 convinced me.
(it was not just a few copies of MS Flight Simulator in the hands of wackos)
---
As to Hezbollah, I am amazed you would consider that more or less exclusively related to Israel:
The Marine Barracks was but one of many examples to prove otherwise.
I know we are losing, the Israelis are losing, there is no hope, the President is a moron, the country is asleep, the vaunted IDF is a paper tiger, yadda yadda...
From The Australian:
In another attempt to overcome Hezbollah in the propaganda war, Israel has begun to broadcast in Arabic the names of about 400 Hezbollah fighters it claims to have killed, presumably obtained from identity tags.
Hezbollah has reported very few of its casualties while playing up Israel's casualty list, which totals 45 dead, including eight killed in the cross-border raid on July 12 that launched the war.
I think the side that has the ten-to-one favorable casualty ratio just might end up winning.
Jamie Irons
Jamie,
I'm sorry that you're astonished. Perhaps I didn't phrase things as I'd hoped or chose the wrong examples.
It's really hard to take something like the recent events in Israel and express any thoughts which seem to downplay the significance or the horror of it. But criminal gangs in Brazil have created nearly the same levels of violence and bloodsheed in a weekend, targeting the police and authorities in Sao Paulo for example, as what we're seeing in Israel.
Does it mean it's not important? No. Does it mean that Hezbollah is to be excused? No. Does it mean it's not horrible and not to be condemned? No.
But what it does mean is to not let ourselves get carried away and make a threat out to be bigger and more ominous than it is and consequently let our fears lead us to atrocities of our own.
Catherine:
Buddy's link gives statistical evidence to the argument I was trying to make:
Terrorism is alive and well, and if we were fortunate enough to never have a large attack again, it could still well bring down our world as we enjoy it.
...and then there's those damned demographics.
Call me a racist, call me whatever, I would rather Europe not be under Sharia Law.
It could be worse - at least this resolution would provide an adequate solution to the problem if it were actually implemented in it's entirety. That's as unlikely as it always is, of course, but it's better than unattainable goals that *wouldn't* solve the problem, which is what the UN usually manages to come out with.
"atrocities of our own"
---
WWII comes to mind when I think of Israel (and those Jewish GI Girls) being called a
ONE BOMB STATE.
(and akmablowjob calling for it's erasure)
Doug,
Yes, the numbers in Buddy's claim basically make the point I'm trying to make: Islamic terrorism poses more of a threat to muslims than it does to Americans.
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Doug,
Dammit, why'd you have to bring those Israeli girls into this!? You're just trying to distract me.
I might not respond for a bit. Time to call up that bookmark.
Catherine - 05:09:58 PM
"Blossum must be a blooming possum."
---
I found that offensive!
But also, my point was that 'Rat and Trish have proven to be more accurate predictors of what happens here at the club than most of the rest of us.
No harm, no foul, I just like to admit when I'm wrong.
(sometimes)
James,
I love to bring G_d's beautiful works in as my ultimate WMD!
Anyhow, beyond that..
I believe that Israel can take care of itself. If some islamofascists do decide to take out Israel, there's probably not much we can do about it, unfortunately.
Nuclear weapons are going to continue to proliferate. Every time a new country gets one, we hear the same alarms we heard the last time a country gets one. As nutty as the Iranian president may be, they all very well know that the retaliation for nuking Israel would be absolutely severe.
I'm not indifferent to Israel's fate. I would regard the loss of Tel Aviv to be an event of horrific magnitude. But....
If the Islamofascists do decide to nuke Israel.. well, Islamofascism will cease to exist.
Word has it that Hezbolah has been using anti-tank missiles very effectively - and the latest AV Week says that Hezbolah has been using US-made TOW antitank missiles. Wonder where they got those?
Av Week also says that four different type of rockets have been fired by Hezbolah into Israel. The longest shot they mentioned came from the Becca Valley and covered 62 miles. BUT - they say that the IDF has not seen any of the longer range Iranian Fajr-3, Fajr-4, or 210 km range Zelzal-3 rockets, although IAF pilots reported destroying a Zelzal-3 on the ground. I don't know how this matches up with the longer range strikes that occurred this weekend.
The upshot is, they can't tell yet if the rockets that have been fired thus far came from just Syria, from Iran - or Russia.
Av Week also says that the Northrop Grumman laser system that can shoot down Katyskas has been slimmed down to a load that will fit on one C-17, although when set up it takes up an area half the size of a football field - which is still a mere 25% of the space originally required by the older system. 5 such systems could cover the whole of northern Israel.
It would seem to me that with such laser defense systems Hezbolah would need to fire a large number of rocekst at once to have nay hope of saturating the system. Thus far they have been only firing them one at a time, which the IAF finds confusing since multiple launches would be so much more damaging. If they did have to resort to multiple laucnhes, not only would that use up a lot of their rockets but the launchers would be much more vulnerable to being taken out.
Jamie Irons said:
I think the side that has the ten-to-one favorable casualty ratio just might end up winning.
There's about a billion Muslims. Even if all six million Israeli Jews were killed at a ten-to-one ratio, that would leave...about a billion Muslims.
Alex,
A good fantasy is better than a bad fantasy.
I'll drink to that.
RWE:
"5 such systems could cover the whole of northern Israel."
Interesting. I wonder what the price comparison is between a few hundred rockets and that system.
And what kind of multi-million dollar gizmos Israel will need to defend against the next cheap weapon system Hez gets.
"As nutty as the Iranian president may be, they all very well know that the retaliation for nuking Israel would be absolutely severe."
---
Makes no difference to the "Twelvers,"
which to me makes them pre-emptively expendable.
RATHER THAN ISRAEL!
Why is Israel's possible extermination just a "Possibility"
(with devastating consequences)
but Islam's is a Human Atrocity?
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Re: Terasita Doctrine
Can we keep the oil revenues until all the costs of the Wars sponsored by Iran since 1979 are repaid? Reparations?
Before jumping to any conclusion, one might consider a situation where we would probably have to take over the oil fields in the KSA, when the monarchy leaves, and set up a trust fund. Would the beneficiaries (read Arab street) object, or would we be occupiers? Would we charge these funds the actual cost of their protection?
How about the sea lanes? Why not?
Seems we're stuck in the protection racket without the vig.
Doug, that was 2005, bear in mind, just a year in the life of the world. 14,500 killed, 35,000 injured, 25,000 kidnapped, that's 75,000, and figure each person's family & associates are equally damaged, and you have an easy million people burned up-close and personal.
Global economic growth has been great, it's our biggest defense, really, in the mimetic war.
But growth & prosperity could be much, much greater. Look at historical price/earnings multiples in growth environments--look at the multiple expansion that has always happened in the past in an accelerating growth cycle. You'll see, the S&P500 should--due to the quality and not just quantity of earnings growth--carry an 18 or 20 multiple instead of a 14 or 15. So, roughly, as much as a quarter of private (corporate, non-gov) capital formation in the global markets is not happening. This is a factor of confidence in the future. I won't speculate on what is causing the drag--no need to, you already know.
Wealth creation has always been a deadly enemy of fascism, as it tends to liberate people from control of the authorities. When your family is dependent on the neighborhood gov't representative ("gauleiter") for the food ration card, you'll be ever so cooperative--or pious, depending.
So, point, it ain't just the misery the mullocracies create, it's the joy and optimism they forbid.
Some reward for ridding the world of sovietism. You'd think the mullahs'd be grateful.
CNN had a remarkable video of a very old lady in Cuba that had been forced out of her home and was living in hallways, walking miles for necessities, etc.
All she wanted was a place to live, for then she would able to do work to help the revolution!
Prayed for Castro's help, as his kind hand of govt was the only thing looking out for the people!
(and we don't know what might come if he dies)
Orwell/Huxley could be forgiven and insensitive snort.
"Castros Health!"
rufus,
I'll print that out for my son to give all his AF Buddies!
Doug,
Regarding your questions as to pre-emption, possibility, and atrocities...
I've been reviewing the aforementioned URL of your weapons of mass distraction. My opinions are being turned upside down. Tricky, tricky.
On a serious note, I have to call an end to this session. Work calls. Thanks to you and others for the conversation.
Be well.
James
Rush has a copy of the Reuter's pic on his front page.
That thing is so PATHETIC!
...just like the Dems in Connecticut.
LIEBERMAN '06!
(one less democrat)
John Fund says GOP Guy is a loser.
Likewise, James.
But one more thing:
How much sleep did you get last nite???
James K,
How about 1,000 to 5,000 suicide bombers across the US? Or, across the EU? Or, one LPG tanker detonated in Houston? Neither would take down the country, but they naturally lead to Sarah's Doctrine. No?
It took 5,000 people a month to stop Lee and John in DC. Don't you think that 1,000 such incidents would shut US down?
I think most posters here are attempting to figure out how we avoid the need to employ Sarah's Doctrine. Ignoring the problem is never a solution, and you do a lot of ignoring in your dialogue.
Much of your nuanced view may have merit in less dangerous times; however, one nuked city makes that view moot forever, and it's irrelevant in a discussion of survival. Are you a parent?
Teresita,
There's about a billion Muslims. Even if all six million Israeli Jews were killed at a ten-to-one ratio, that would leave...about a billion Muslims...
I take your point, which in a certain sense is (depressingly) on target.
But I was working from the point of view that we have been told the Hisbullards number about two to three thousand active fighters.
Jamie Irons
James,
So, you know that Hez and your Brazilian gangs aren't working together (or won't), thus additively their activities aren't worth our worry. Whew!
Jamie,
Hope I will recall the name later, but it was a respectable expert.
He figures 10% sympathisers, which is a LOT of folks.
James Kielland,
Your posts seem to be minimizing the threat Islamic terrorists pose to America because it is not an existential threat. When you do that you ignore the "existential" threat that it poses to the western "way of life," specifically the dramatic effect that this terror could reasonably have on the economy and the freedoms we enjoy.
Dra'Cula be thirsty!
"At its most charitable, the world expects Miss Rice to find a “middle way”, between Israel’s existence and non-existence."
(David Warren, from the link) -- what is the middle between being and not-being?
Without addressing any of the plethora of views/opinions expressed by james kielland (no time), some of his controversial points are substantially consistent with those held by a senior member of the State Department. See:
CONDI SPEAKS (I THINK), ON BACKGROUND
http://www.powerlineblog.com/
Now, if some correspondents find some fault with some of the themes examined by james and seconded by this very senior member of the State Department, then will those same critics of james commit the ultimate sacrilege by finding fault with a member of the administration and, hence, its ME policy?
I thought not; just part of the grand, unifying strategy for victory, it will probably be asserted. Well, at some point even the staunchest fans of the administration and its State Department will have to admit the plain, unvarnished truth, “That dog just won’t hunt, anymore.”
rwe:
Hezbollah did launch a coordinated rocket attack yesterday, releasing in three waves 60 -80 rockets (opinions vary); proving, I suppose, that given enough time and leisure they can be taught the effective use of artillery.
Well, which is it, are you the Israeli Prime Minister, or not ?
buddy,
Re: Israel’s existence v. Israel’s non-existence
It’s elementary: Schrödinger’s cat is dead – Schrödinger’s cat is not dead.
Diplomats are geniuses.
Catherine--great point--as if Hamlet, before our eyes, delivers his soliloquy surrounded by a hundred advancing assassins, with knives en garde.
Rufus, if you appreciated that Warren, read his "Qana".
James Keiland:
The answer as given in Av Week is $200M to complete development of the laser defense system and as little as $40M for each system if manufactured in quantity.
Obviously, a bunch of simple rockets are cheaper to launch than to defend against. This is the nature of the war. I heard where the Palestinians used to pack their bombs with cheap rat poison – which caused an anticoagulation problem with the victims that could only be treated with a very expensive drug. Militarily this was as worthless as the Katyska attacks, but it dragged Israel down just a bit more
I think perhaps the real essence of the war against the terrorists is based less on their attempts to create their own glorious civilization and more about their desperate attempts to drag ours down, even a little bit. As for the glorious Calphiate they are fighting to create, I think that even they realize that such a nation would be the equivalent of the Marquis De Sade meets Abbott and Costello, the Three Stooges, and the Marx Brothers with assistance from Mayor Nagin.
The reason the IDF cannot reply in kind to the Hezbolah rocket attacks with tit for tat attacks of their own is that the other side does not have enough of a country to shoot at. The reason they don’t is the same reason the Palestinians have not made a go of it in Gaza – they are flaming incompetent at anything other than destruction – and in reality not even very good at that.
Buddy,
I have long been a fan of David Warren; I'm not quite with him on some of the sexuality questions, but in the arena of the war, he is unsurpassed. Having grown up in Pakistan, he starts out with a good deal of sympathy for, and understanding of, the Islamic point of view.
Jamie Irons
Around the 29 JUL there were published reports of "rumors" of a Coup.
WaPo had a piece.
Beyond the rumors, who knows.
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