Sunday, August 06, 2006

Intermezzo or Finale?

"Israeli government, security establishment officials believe violence in north may be over within days following US-French resolution on ceasefire". A senior Lebanese official thinks the resolution undermines Lebanese sovereignty according to Ynet. Foreign Policy lists out the countries which may provide troops for an international force for Lebanon. Egypt, Turkey, France and Germany, why they may agree and what's against them.

Reuters reports that a ceasefire proposal for the cessation of hostilities without IDF withdrawals was sent to the Security Council. The Lebanese Foreign Ministry said "Unfortunately, it lacked, for instance, a call for the withdrawal of Israeli forces which are now in Lebanon." (Reuters/ABC) The text of the draft resolution is now available. The full text follow:


UNITED NATIONS - Following is the text of a draft UN resolution on the Middle East conflict negotiated by the United States and France and presented to the full 15-nation Security Council Saturday.

The Security Council

PP1. Recalling all its previous resolutions on Lebanon, in particular resolutions 425 (1978), 426 (1978), 520 (1982), 1559 (2004), 1655 (2006) and 1680 (2006), as well as the statements of its President on the situation in Lebanon, in particular the statements of 18 June 2000(S/PRST/2000/21), of 19 October 2004 (S/PRST/2004/36), of 4 May 2005 (S/PRST/2005/17) of 23 January 2006 (S/PRST/2006/3) and of 30 July 2006(S/PRST/2006/35), Advertisement

PP2. Expressing its utmost concern at the continuing escalation of hostilities in Lebanon and in Israel since Hezbollah's attack on Israel on 12 July 2006, which has already caused hundreds of deaths and injuries on both sides, extensive damage to civilian infrastructure and hundreds of thousands of internally displaced persons,

PP3. Emphasizing the need for an end of violence, but at the same time emphasizing the need to address urgently the causes that have given rise to the current crisis, including by the unconditional release of the abducted Israeli soldiers,

PP4: Mindful of the sensitivity of the issue of prisoners and encouraging the efforts aimed at settling the issue of the Lebanese prisoners detained in Israel,

OP1. Calls for a full cessation of hostilities based upon, in particular, the immediate cessation by Hezbollah of all attacks and the immediate cessation by Israel of all offensive military operations;

OP2. Reiterates its strong support for full respect for the Blue Line

OP3. Also reiterates its strong support for the territorial integrity, sovereignty and political independence of Lebanon within its internationally recognized borders, as contemplated by the Israeli-Lebanese General Armistice Agreement of 23 March 1949;

OP4. Calls on the international community to take immediate steps to extend its financial and humanitarian assistance to the Lebanese people, including through facilitating the safe return of displaced persons and, under the authority of the Government of Lebanon, reopening airports and harbours for verifiably and purely civilian purposes, and calls on it also to consider further assistance in the future to contribute to the reconstruction and development of Lebanon;

OP5. Emphasizes the importance of the extension of the control of the Government of Lebanon over all Lebanese territory in accordance with the provisions of resolution 1559 (2004) and resolution 1680 (2006), and of the relevant provisions of the Taif Accords, for it to exercise its full sovereignty and authority;

OP6. Calls for Israel and Lebanon to support a permanent ceasefire and a long-term solution based on the following principles and elements:- strict respect by all parties for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Israel and Lebanon;- full respect for the Blue Line by both parties;- delineation of the international borders of Lebanon, especially in those areas where the border is disputed or uncertain, including in the Shebaa farms area;- security arrangements to prevent the resumption of hostilities, including the establishment between the Blue Line and the Litani river of an area free of any armed personnel, assets and weapons other than those of the Lebanese armed and security forces and of UN mandated international forces deployed in this area;- full implementation of the relevant provisions of the Taif Accords and of resolutions 1559 (2004) and 1680 (2006) that require the disarmament of all armed groups in Lebanon, so that, pursuant to the Lebanese cabinet decision of July 27, 2006, there will be no weapons or authority in Lebanon other than that of the Lebanese state;- deployment of an international force in Lebanon, consistent with paragraph 10 below;- establishment of an international embargo on the sale or supply of arms and related material to Lebanon except as authorized by its government;- elimination of foreign forces in Lebanon without the consent of its government;- provision to the United Nations of remaining maps of land mines in Lebanon in Israel's possession;

OP7: Invites the Secretary General to support efforts to secure agreements in principle from the Government of Lebanon and the Government of Israel to the principles and elements for a long-term solution as set forth in paragraph 6 above;

OP8: Requests the Secretary General to develop, in liaison with key international actors and the concerned parties, proposals to implement the relevant provisions of the Taif Accords, and of resolutions 1559 (2004) and 1680 (2006), including disarmament, and for delineation of the international borders of Lebanon, especially in those areas where the border is disputed or uncertain, including by dealing with the Shebaa farms, and to present those proposals to the Security Council within thirty days;

OP9. Calls on all parties to cooperate during this period with the Security Council and to refrain from any action contrary to paragraph 1 above that might adversely affect the search for a long-term solution, humanitarian access to civilian populations, or the safe return of displaced persons, and requests the Secretary General to keep the Council informed in this regard;

OP10. Expresses its intention, upon confirmation to the Security Council that the Government of Lebanon and the Government of Israel have agreed in principle to the principles and elements for a long-term solution as set forth in paragraph 6 above, and subject to their approval, to authorize in a further resolution under Chapter VII of the Charter the deployment of a UN mandated international force to support the Lebanese armed forces and government in providing a secure environment and contribute to the implementation of a permanent ceasefire and a long-term solution;

OP11. Requests UNIFIL, upon cessation of hostilities, to monitor its implementation and to extend its assistance to help ensure humanitarian access to civilian populations and the safe return of displaced persons;

OP12. Calls upon the Government of Lebanon to ensure arms or related materiel are not imported into Lebanon without its consent and requests UNIFIL, conditions permitting, to assist the Government of Lebanon at its request;

OP13. Requests the Secretary-General to report to the Council within one week on the implementation of this resolution and to provide any relevant information in light of the Council's intention to adopt, consistent with paragraph 10 above, a further resolution;

OP14. Decides to remain actively seized of the matter

509 Comments:

Blogger allen said...

This is the best the West can muster?

Is it any wonder that the Islamofascists are so arrogant?

Mr. Olmert will be pleased by any or all of the above partners. He really would like to get on to the serious business of retreat from the "territories". This nasty business in Lebanon has been such a distraction.

Calling Mr. Netanyahu!

8/06/2006 01:09:00 AM  
Blogger allen said...

Would these be the Egyptians, incompetent in securing a single Gaza crossing?

Would these be the Italians, inconstant allies in Iraq?

Would these be the French, whores to all comers?

Would these be the Turks, blockers of the 4th Infantry Division?

Would these be the Germans…?

Of the lot, surprisingly, the Germans have something to prove and might be the best, although unable to field 20,000 combat ready troops.

Mr. Olmert must be saying, “Yes, please, sir.”

8/06/2006 01:38:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

Will Lebanon Be the Next Iran?
- Pamela of Atlas Shrugs talks with the Jerusalem Post’s
Caroline Glick about the war.
In this exclusive podcast, Glick criticizes the initial air war and warns that if Israel does not finish the job against Hezbollah, Lebanon is headed for Iran-style theocracy.

8/06/2006 01:55:00 AM  
Blogger SarahWeddington said...

Allen,

With all respect the Bibi who surrendered Hebron and was about to give the Golan to Assad isn't exactly my idea of a great leader.

Who would have thought the Wehrmacht would ever be called on by an Israeli PM?

This war is very frustrating. Israel has from 5-10K troops operating at any one time. They've had less than 50 dead in 25 days or so, or around 2 dead per day, hardly serious losses. By comparison they had well over 100 dead a day in 67 and 73. In 67 they had 250K troops fighting in 73 450K troops fighting. This war to me is just as important and they have 10K max, or at most 2% of what they committed in 73. How can anybody expect victory when you fight with more than 95% of your guys on the sidelines? It doesn't make sense.

Yes, there'll be casualties, but there'll be victory.

If the IDF went in with overwhelming force they might have a few hundred dead, but hezbollah would have well past a few thousand dead and have been driven clear of the Litani for good.

I can't wait to read the post mortem on this. Find out the inside story. I think Olmert and Peretz will be seen as the culprits.

8/06/2006 02:08:00 AM  
Blogger wretchard said...

As more details emerge on the ceasefire proposal a few things comments suggest themselves. First, because the cessation of hostilities is not preconditioned on an IDF withdrawal, the longer Hezbollah delays the more territory will be held by the IDF. Second, even if the Hezbollah decides to accept the ceasefire now it is unclear how stable such a ceasefire will be. A ceasefire followed by an immediate violation would restart hostilities but with Israel already in possession of parts of Hezbollahland.

This is not a stable condition for Lebanon, Hezbollah or Israel. None of their essential goals are attained. Something is lacking from the formula, otherwise it seems almost intentionally temporary.

8/06/2006 02:37:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

Wretchard:
If/when hostilities recommence, won't Israel have a problem in that the Multis are then in the line of fire?
---
Carolyn Glick points out some the fantasies behind our position:
a. That the Lebanese govt is in any real sense separate from Hezbollah.

b. Likewise the Army, which has been aiding Hezbollah thus far.

c. That a multinational force composed of countries hostile to Israel will result in ridding Lebanon of Hezbollah.

8/06/2006 02:59:00 AM  
Blogger wretchard said...

I've added the full text of the resolution since it became available. Fire away guys.

8/06/2006 02:59:00 AM  
Blogger wretchard said...

I am not sure who wins in this ceasefire scenario which basically solves nothing. It doesn't remove the IDF from Lebanese soil. It doesn't obviously destroy Hezbollah. UNIFIL gets to crawl back onto the world stage. Kofi Annan gets to try to solve the problems 20 years couldn't solve.

And the biggest missing piece is the international force whose composition is as yet unknown. As Doug says, it'll be in the way of the IDF. But if it's anything more than a paper tiger it will be a target for the Hezbollah.

Will the Olmert government fall? Will Hezbollah even accept the ceasefire? They seem to be holding out.

8/06/2006 03:07:00 AM  
Blogger ralph127 said...

Eight hundred years after a blood-spattered English king swung his sword by Jaffa's walls, kids ate dripping ice cream bars in the sun. The scene had changed profoundly over the centuries.

But the enemy remained the same: Those who believe Islam is destined to subjugate all other faiths and races.

Ralph Peters
http://www.nypost.com/postopinion/opedcolumnists/defying_terror_opedcolumnists_ralph_peters.htm



Evil cannot be appeased, especially via the UN. Evil must be confronted, day by day and generation by generation.

Where are the Muslims who do not believe that Islam is destined to subjugate all other faiths and races? Where are the Muslims who condemn, publicly, unconditionally and in terms of Islamic theology, the ever increasing evil done in the name of their god? Why have Muslims living in the West, with all the freedoms of the West, not engendered a mass missionary movement to reclaim their religion back from the scum who embrace Hezbollah, Hamas and al-Qaeda? Why do Muslims living in the West find their young men seduced to the darkness that is Islam resurgent rather than being a palliative to the death cult of Islam?

It time for those of us who love freedom to demand that Muslims living amongst us condemn, publicly, unconditionally and in terms of Islamic theology, the ever increasing evil done in the name of their god. The Muslims that live amongst us must join us in defeating the evil that is Islam resurgent or....? Can we remain a free people with the enemy living amongst us?

I excerpt below an excellent article by RAFIA ZAKARIA on the silence of the Muslims living in the free West. By their silence they scream out what side they have chosen?
----------------------



The obstinate silence of European Muslims and their leaders in condemning these horrific crimes and their efforts to pin the blame of their apathy on a fear of fuelling Islamophobia represents the dilemma facing the Muslim world. Be it terrorism, honour killings or female genital mutilation, Western Muslim leaders have become adept at using the excuse of misguided interpretations as a means of shifting responsibility away from themselves. It is undeniable that while Islamic doctrine itself does not support either terrorism or honour killings, many Muslims engage in these acts specifically by claiming that they are to be religious duties or that they have religious sanction. While misguided interpretations may indeed play a part, offering this hackneyed and rather overused explanation does not obliterate the reality that the actions of these Muslims increasingly define Islam for the non-Muslim world.

Furthermore, this distinction between the doctrine of Islam and the actions of Muslims is one that has been resorted to far too often. Particularly in the Western Muslim case, it has been set up as a decoy that insulates moderate Muslims from taking responsibility for what goes on in their communities. The recipe for denial is simple: the first step minimises the impact of the problematic view or practice by emphasising its unpopularity and reiterating its occurrence in a "very small percentage of Muslims"; next, examples are cited that indict other cultures and communities where the problematic practices may also have occurred and finally a few generalised Koranic verses that condemn violence and promote egalitarianism and justice are cited. Dictated by the fallacy that acknowledging problems within is an indelible mark of surrender to the enemies of Islam, these limited reactions fail to develop potent antidotes for the scourges ravaging the faith from within.

RAFIA ZAKARIA
http://www.hinduonnet.com/fline/stories/20060811000405800.htm

8/06/2006 03:27:00 AM  
Blogger Clyde said...

An agreement between France and the USA at the UN would be fine if they were the ones actually fighting. It doesn't seem to me as if either of the combatants is in any kind of mood to cease hostilities at this time.

In any case, I'm deeply skeptical of the value of UN troops. The historical record shows that when the Blue Helmets are around, the best case scenario is having your women and children sexually molested by the "peacekeepers" in exchange for humanitarian food relief, and the worse case scenario is usually genocide.

UN: Worthless as tits on a boar hog.

8/06/2006 04:24:00 AM  
Blogger Kevin said...

Hezbollah will never accept a ceasefire that restricts them from firing on any IDF soldier occupying Lebanese territory. At the most they would stop firing rockets into Israel in return for an Israeli halt to aerial bombardments. In any case the ground war will go on.

As each day passes, Hezbollah’s standing in Lebanon and most of the wider Arab world continues to rise. About the only significant player in the Arab world to still openly denounce Hezbollah is Al Qaida (kind of makes you wonder, huh?), the leader of the Kuwaiti branch called for a temporary alliance with the “Zionists and the Crusaders” to help check the rising Shiite tide.

The reasons why Israel attacked Lebanon’s civilian infrastructure instead of concentrating on Hezbollah will be debated to years to come along with the question of who ran their war more incompetently, Olmert or Bush. As the pressure from Israel’s failure in Lebanon pushes Ayatollah Sistani closer to Iran and the Sadrists, Israel is facing a future with a sweeping Shiite dagger (Iran-Iraq-Syria-Hezbollah) aimed straight for her neck. Syria seems the obvious weak-link here. Will Israel gamble all and launch an invasion of Syria? The question being of course whether the status quo Assad regime is more dangerous than whatever future regime would emanate from an Israeli occupation. The wildcard here is that Syria is 85% Sunni and empowering this long oppressed majority might just snap the Shiite dagger into two.

In any case the future does not look good for Israel.

8/06/2006 05:15:00 AM  
Blogger 2164th said...

Had Israel accomplished a prompt and thorough defeat of Hezbollah, as they had in the past, this would be a bad deal for Israel. That is now past. Iran has been ignored in this agreement, but exposed as the the source of arms and the patron of Hezbollah. Saudi Arabia and Egypt have been startled awake by the a resurgent Iran. Israel did not prove to be the strategic asset that the US had wished for, but it was always a wish and never proven. The US does not get benefit of a Hezbollah destroyed. There is a possibility that Hezbollah is stronger. Two hundred thousand plus protesting for Hezbollah in Baghdad does not make for a good day. European, Turkish and Egyptian troops forcing a settlement and a security zone is good. Israel did not do it, and The US has no appetite for the job.

I see a kernel of optimism. Iran lost big. The vanguard Hezbollah, at a minimum will be forced mainstream, without an army. The fault lines between Sunni and Shiite have been exposed to reveal the schism within Islam. The West can begin to exploit that, because the only resolution within Islam is to de-emphasize the predominance of religion as the centerpiece for Muslim nations. The case for secularism within Islam can be made.

Israel will not survive either as a Middle Eastern Power or a permanent ward of th e US. The future for Israel is the same as her past. Israel is a European power and state. The stabilization of Israeli borders by Europe can establish the beginning of a process that could bring Israel into the EU and Nato. Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq and yes Syria, can be the bulwark against the Mad Mullah Tea Party in Tehran.

8/06/2006 06:04:00 AM  
Blogger DB2 said...

We tend to see the US during the Second World War as politically united, at least after Pearl Harbor. James Burns' two-volume biography of Roosevelt has this paragraph:

An Englishman observing the American scene early in 1944 marveled at the differences in Roosevelt's and Churchill's situations. The Prime Minister had the backing of a united nation, S.K. Ratcliffe noted, while the President moved in an atmosphere of conflict -- of political bitterness, industrial discord, racial tension, press opposition, Democratic party defections -- and "of an enmity against him so intense and persistent that for a parallel in Britain we would have to go far back."

8/06/2006 06:24:00 AM  
Blogger Woman Catholic said...

allen said:

Of the lot, surprisingly, the Germans have something to prove and might be the best, although unable to field 20,000 combat ready troops.

You learn anything by doing it. American troops were so green in February 1943 they got their butt personally handed to them by Rommel at Kasserine Pass, but in just over a year, by the time of Normandy, the Americans had learned how to coordinate close air support and the American soldier had become nearly as good as Fritz. There is no reason the krauts could not, in very short order, stand shoulder-to-shoulder with our own troops, if they would just get in the shi'ite.

8/06/2006 06:50:00 AM  
Blogger fjelehjifel said...

This resolution, as drafted, would essentially freeze the conflict into a grinding war of attrition.

For Israel, the resolution, if interpreted literally, would cut off the possibility of advancing up to the Litani River or into the Bekaa Valley, meaning Israeli cities will remain under constant short-range bombardment.

Israel seems to be hangning tough today, but in a few weeks, who knows?

As for Hezbollah, they don't care. They have war and a chance for martyrdom. The rest of Lebanon be damned.

The crux of the problem is as it has always been: Iran and Syria. Neither country is currently paying a substantial price to keep Hezbollah in business, though the disruption of the Lebanese economy is bad news for Syria.

And Iran? They are now openly threatening to expand uranium enrichment activities.

Gonna be an interesting three or four weeks ahead.

8/06/2006 06:57:00 AM  
Blogger greer rants said...

BREAKING!!
REUTERS CAUGHT RED HANDED PHOTOSHOPPING PHOTO OF BOMBED AREA

Dan at RiehlWorld just sent me link to his work. Buildings in photo also cloned.

Reuter's Photoshop Explained

Charles Johnson at LGF caught the cloned smoke in this pic - Riehl world proves buildings and coloring also cloned by photoshopping.

Proves Reuters' "1000 words" dispatches worth as much as their text words!!!

We need to bury them! the SOB's!

Please distribute far and wide. Local stations and newspapers can get ball rolling.

8/06/2006 07:02:00 AM  
Blogger felix said...

Lebanon gov't is controlled by the Hezbos, Syria, and Iran. So it can't agree to the UN draft which leaves IDF troops in place in South Lebanon for now and (I think) long-term tries to get the Hezbos to disarm or leave So. Lebanon.

Israel will go along with resolution. Hezbos reason for being is to destroy Israel, so it can't just pick up and leave South Lebanon.

I have read somewhere on the bolgosphere that IDF has indentified 5 pockets of Hezos in So Leb. and has surrounded those areas. The startegy will be attrition, which should work. Hopefully at some point the Hezbo missile launches will decrease as the process of attrition continues.

8/06/2006 07:30:00 AM  
Blogger nonomous said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

8/06/2006 07:35:00 AM  
Blogger greer rants said...

BlueCrab has post of Reuters has withdrawn but no
apology. Let's demand same kind of "apology" from Reuters
as media is demanding from Mel Gibson.
Reuters is proven anti- semite!!!
Best,
Larwyn

UPDATE:
Reuters Admits Fraud - Blue CrabBlvd

.....Ynet is publicly praising Charles Johnson from Little Green Footballs for his work in busting yet another fraud. Go Charles! They also mention several other blogs that did yeoman's work on this.This is Reuters' picture site and I am not seeing a real public apology right up front yet.This entry was posted on Sunday, August 6th, 2006 at 7:12 am


UPDATE: Exclusive Reuters Original Photos -
Blue Crab Blvd

EXCLUSIVE! Must credit Blue Crab Boulevard! (Eat your heart out, Drudge). We here at Blue Crab Boulevard, tireless seekers of the truth that we are, have gotten our hands on the original, unaltered Reuters photograph of smoke rising in Beirut!...

8/06/2006 07:36:00 AM  
Blogger sirius_sir said...

From the aforementioned draft UN resolution on ME conflict:

OP2. Reiterates its strong support for full respect for the Blue Line

OP3. Also reiterates its strong support for the territorial integrity, sovereignty and political independence of Lebanon within its internationally recognized borders...

OP5. Emphasizes the importance of the extension of the control of the Government of Lebanon over all Lebanese territory...

OP6. Calls for Israel and Lebanon to support a permanent ceasefire and a long-term solution based on the following principles and elements:- strict respect by all parties for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Israel and Lebanon;- full respect for the Blue Line by both parties...

OP8: Requests the Secretary General to develop, in liaison with key international actors and the concerned parties, proposals to implement the relevant provisions of the Taif Accords, and of resolutions 1559 (2004) and 1680 (2006), including disarmament, and for delineation of the international borders of Lebanon...

I am struck by all the talk about respecting borders and territorial integrity. Israel and Lebanon seem to be having some sort of territorial dispute. One has to look hard to find reference to third party violations of sovereignty.

To my count, there is but a single mention of Hezbollah (Expressing... utmost concern at the continuing escalation of hostilities in Lebanon and in Israel since Hezbollah's attack on Israel...) and none whatsoever of Syria or Iran.

Such are the limits of modern diplomacy, which does not adequately recognize the culpability of some while placing responsibility on others. How is this far different than Israel's conduct wrt Lebanon in this conflict? According to the diplomats this is a matter between Israel and Lebanon, and tangentially Hezbollah. So that explains why bombs fall on Beirut and not Damascus--or, horrors, Tehran.

At some point the world may face the fact that a solution sometimes means bravely going to the source of the problem.

Bravely?

8/06/2006 07:37:00 AM  
Blogger nonomous said...

This could be interesting if Turkey provides most of the peace keeping forces. Turkey is threatened by Iran and will have no difficulty justifying necessary force to neutralize Hezbollah. Of course, once the Turkish army returns to Beirut after a 90 year absence, it is unlikely to depart.

8/06/2006 07:40:00 AM  
Blogger 2164th said...

Teresita Said:
"There is no reason the krauts could not, in very short order, stand shoulder-to-shoulder with our own troops,"

Would that be the same as the "Krauts" standing shoulder to shoulder with the ( spics, polocks, waps, kikes, niggers, slopes, dinks and nips)?

8/06/2006 07:40:00 AM  
Blogger 3Case said...

"...Lebanese sovereignty...."

That's not quite, or just barely, an oxymoron, right?

8/06/2006 07:45:00 AM  
Blogger whit said...

Initially, Kofi Annan drew a distinction between "ceasefire" and "cessation of hostilities." At that time, he was calling for a cessation so that humanitarian relief could begin. He took pains to note that while others were calling for a ceasefire, he wanted a cessation. I may be parsing too finely but both terms are used in the draft and this could be somewhat confusing.

8/06/2006 07:46:00 AM  
Blogger allen said...

sarahweddington,

re: BiBi

You may have missed my cautionary note concerning Mr. Netanyahu.

While not a panacea, he is a foil to Mr. Olmert's undiminished peacenik tendencies.

Relatively, Mr. Netanyahu is the better choice.

8/06/2006 07:46:00 AM  
Blogger allen said...

wretchard,

Not only will the current resolution fail to be SUSTAINABLE, Dr. Rice now tells us that another implementing resolution must follow hard on its heels. She is confident that the second resolution will satisfy fully the “international community.”

8/06/2006 07:50:00 AM  
Blogger Garth Farkley said...

Does "PP" mean "whereas"? Does "OP" mean "resolved"?

8/06/2006 07:57:00 AM  
Blogger Garth Farkley said...

Question for 2164,

I saw several newes articles re the al Sadr's supporters marching in Baghdad and chanting "death to" etc (with permission of the Iraqui government incidentally). The first reports said "hundreds" of thousands. Then I saw a report of "tens" of thousands. I'm wondering if the initial reports we're the international MSM cheering section pushing for Hezbollah?

8/06/2006 08:09:00 AM  
Blogger hdgreene said...

I was watching Fox News Sunday and they seem to think the fighting will go on for weeks while the resolution is worked on and the Security Council reported back too.

I still think this is about Iran and its nukes. We are going to have to bomb through a lot of orphanages to get to their centrifuges, so we are getting the world use to the idea in Lebanon.

Iran and Syria have been dissing the Security Council regularly -- which is the same as dissing the great powers. Who knows? They may see this as a chance to get back.

Or Sussia and China may work the otherside of the street. We'll see.

8/06/2006 08:16:00 AM  
Blogger Bridget said...

“To my count, there is but a single mention of Hezbollah”

Nor should there be. This matter is between the governments of Lebanon and Israel. The implications reach far beyond Hezbollah, extending to any extra-governmental militia, and is aimed at forcing Lebanon to take responsibility for insuring that armed groups are not allowed to operate within its borders:

“Emphasizes the importance of the extension of the control of the Government of Lebanon over all Lebanese territory”

“ including the establishment between the Blue Line and the Litani river of an area free of any armed personnel, assets and weapons other than those of the Lebanese armed and security forces and of UN mandated international forces deployed in this area”

“there will be no weapons or authority in Lebanon other than that of the Lebanese state”

“establishment of an international embargo on the sale or supply of arms and related material to Lebanon except as authorized by its government”

“Calls upon the Government of Lebanon to ensure arms or related materiel are not imported into Lebanon without its consent”

It remains to be seen whether this will work or not, but it’s worth trying. We have seen first hand in Iraq that military victory has limits. So what if Israel kicks Hezbollah’s ass? Israel has kicked everybody’s ass for the last 60 years, and they’re still not safe.

8/06/2006 08:26:00 AM  
Blogger greer rants said...

LGF got DEATH THREAT FROM REUTERS' EMPLOYEE

Getting 404 "Gateway Timeout" at LGF now - inundated or attacked??

So just taking this from JOM commenter - credible poster
Patton.
Please send whole story to FNC - sure they will pick up when presented with
evidence.
Best,
Larwyn

Reuters employee issues 'Zionist pig' death threat

Worker suspended after telling American blogger: 'I look forward to day when you pigs get your throats cut'

A Reuters employee has been suspended after sending a death threat to an American blogger.

The message, sent from a Reuters internet account, read: "I look forward to the day when you pigs get your throats cut."

It was sent to Charles Johnson, owner of the Little Green Footballs (LGF) weblog, a popular site which often backs Israel and highlights jihadist terrorist activities.



In the threat, the Reuters staff member, who has not been named, left his email address as "zionistpig" at hotmail.com.



Reporting the message to his readers, Johnson wrote on his website: "This particular death threat is a bit different from the run of the mill hate mail we get around here, because an IP lookup on the sender reveals that he/she/it was using an account at none other than Reuters News."



Posted by: Patton | August 06, 2006 at 06:48 AM


Its pretty clear Rueters has taken sides

LET'S GET THE BASTARDS!

8/06/2006 08:29:00 AM  
Blogger Woman Catholic said...

2164th said:
>
> Teresita Said:
>
>>"There is no reason the
>> krauts could not, in
>> very short order, stand
>> shoulder-to-shoulder with
>> our own troops,"
>
>Would that be the same as the
>"Krauts" standing shoulder to
>shoulder with the ( spics, polocks,
>waps, kikes, niggers, slopes, dinks
>and nips)?

You forgot one:

French frog

And that little rebuke, by the way, was the last thing 2164th had to say to this flip.

8/06/2006 08:36:00 AM  
Blogger 2164th said...

Garth Farlkey

Radio Netherlands is a balanced responsible source. They do not have the BBC agenda, and reported over two hundred thousand. They also reported that there was a lot of organization in the demonstrations. A similar thing happened in the Shiite response to the democracy demonstartion in Beirut.

The Wall Street Journal reports "tens of thousands"
IDEAST CRISIS TRACKER

Fighting Continues Despite U.N. Resolution Draft
August 6, 2006 10:43 a.m.

Updated regularly with news on the Israel-Hezbollah-Lebanon crisis. All times ET.

http://online.wsj.com/public/article
/SB115306760246608000-8QlZFINfzxPC6s_
nbdMeLJG5Fs8_20060902.
html?mod=tff_main_tff_top

8/06/2006 08:45:00 AM  
Blogger 2164th said...

So ist das Leben--hart aber dafür gemein.

8/06/2006 08:49:00 AM  
Blogger Woman Catholic said...

sarah said:

I can't wait to read the post mortem on this. Find out the inside story. I think Olmert and Peretz will be seen as the culprits

In America, there is a yawning chasm between the soldiers and generals, who tend to be hawkish, and many politicians, who tend to be dovish. In Israel it's different. Some of the most pinko loony left PMs were war heros in the endemic Arab-Israeli conflict. By the same token, it was the uber-hawk Sharon who came up with this idea of abandoning the settlements in Gaza and he was fixing to do the same thing in the West Bank. Certainly Olmert is better prepared to rise to this challenge (like Blair did after 9-11) than a Labor PM would be.

8/06/2006 08:55:00 AM  
Blogger sirius_sir said...

Bridget, of course this is a matter between Lebanon and Israel. Hasn't Israel's bombing campaign made that abundantly clear?

Thing is, that same campaign has also alienated many Lebanese that might otherwise side with Israel in this matter. But you are right; technically, legally, Hezbollah has no standing here.

So we just put the screws to the Lebanese and force them--no, encourage them--to take control of the situation. (And meanwhile, Syria and Iran rate nary a mention.)

But let me borrow a question from another context in the previous thread: What if Hezbollah IS the Lebanese government?

8/06/2006 09:03:00 AM  
Blogger Woman Catholic said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

8/06/2006 09:06:00 AM  
Blogger Garth Farkley said...

nonomous,

Someone, I think Nasr, recently claimed that Turkey and Iran are thawing their historical antagonism due to mutual antipathy toward the Kurdish rebels. IIRC a high-ranking generals, I forget if it was Turk or Iranian, has proposed joint exercises.

8/06/2006 09:07:00 AM  
Blogger Woman Catholic said...

sirius_sir wrote:

But let me borrow a question from another context in the previous thread: What if Hezbollah IS the Lebanese government?

Don't governments get to decide when to take a state to war? Is not Lebanon at war? Did not Hezbollah decide to instigate it? Then your answer can be read right off the dials: Hezbollah is indeed the Lebanese government.

8/06/2006 09:08:00 AM  
Blogger Jamie Irons said...

2164th:

So ist das Leben--hart aber dafür gemein...

hart?

Wie sagt man hart auf Englisch?

(I know that in English it is an old word for "stag.")

Thanks.

Jamie Irons

8/06/2006 09:09:00 AM  
Blogger Woman Catholic said...

garth said:

Someone, I think Nasr, recently claimed that Turkey and Iran are thawing their historical antagonism due to mutual antipathy toward the Kurdish rebels. IIRC a high-ranking generals, I forget if it was Turk or Iranian, has proposed joint exercises.

If they make a move, they'll find a tanned and rested Kurdistan (which is not involved in the crap in Baghdad) enhanced by US Forces in northern Iraq anxious to atone for the betrayal of Bush 41 when he left them in 1991 to twist in the wind.

8/06/2006 09:13:00 AM  
Blogger Garth Farkley said...

Kevin said: Israel attacked Lebanon’s civilian infrastructure instead of concentrating on Hezbollah....

Can you document this comment? I'm skeptical.

I seem to recall that Israel has bombed a power plant but it was somehow related to a Hezbollah stronghold. I'm haven't heard about any general attack on the power infrastructure.

I also vaguely recall that the IDF has taken out the runways at the airport in Beirut. They have definitely bombed some bridges and roads in corridors to Syria. The purpose is plainly to prevent re-supply by Iran/Syria. It's a far cry from attacking the "civilian infrastructure instead of concentrating on Hezbollah."

Bottom line, I'm very skeptical of this comment. It crys out for some kind of explanation. Better yet, let someone someone better informed than me refute it. We shouldn't just let it pass without a response.

8/06/2006 09:23:00 AM  
Blogger rufus said...

Reuters Exonerated!

8/06/2006 09:32:00 AM  
Blogger Bridget said...

Sirius_sir,

Force them is ok with me, and provide them all the “assistance” required to do an effective job of it, so there are no excuses. Put the Lebanese government between a rock and a hard place and we’ll probably get the answer to that question of yours.

8/06/2006 09:41:00 AM  
Blogger DB2 said...

Don't governments get to decide when to take a state to war? Is not Lebanon at war? Did not Hezbollah decide to instigate it?

It may well have been Iran that decided to instigate it. Little is done by Hez without approval. Read this interview with Sheikh Qassem, deputy leader of Hizbollah, from back in 2004:
www.opendemocracy.net/globalization/hizbollah_3757.jsp

"On the matter of political relations with Iran, the sheikh was absolutely clear. Hizbollah regards the Iranian spiritual leader, in this case Khamenei, as its ultimate authority; all major political decisions regarding Hizbollah are referred to – when not actually taken in – Iran. He gave the example of the decision taken in 1992 to enter Lebanese national politics: Hizbollah set up a commission, which prepared a report, with various options; this report was sent to Iran; it was Ayatollah Khamenei himself who took the final decision, in favour of participation."

8/06/2006 09:49:00 AM  
Blogger Achillea said...

Having read through the draft a couple of times, while I agree that functionally it's the usual UN smoke-and-mirrors, it's the most pro-Israel bit of smoke-and-mirrors to come down that pike since 1948.

It establishes Hezballah's raid on Israel as the beginning of hostilities. It doesn't require Israel to give up a single inch of Lebanese territory or to sit passively when attacked. It calls for the unconditional release of Wasserman and Regev (not a prisoner exchange). The whole Shebaa Farms thing is assigned to-be-discussed-later status, which is UN speak for when-hell-freezes.

Is it as ineffectual on the ground as UN resolutions generally are? You betcha. But it made for more delay hammering it out. And now there will be more delay while the SC dickers about it. And then Lebanon will piss off the French by turning up their collective nose at it. Whereupon we can say 'well, we tried, but Lebanon doesn't want peace,' followed by more dithering and delay. And all the while, Israel's got a nice little cauldron effect going on and the water is boiling nicely.

8/06/2006 09:50:00 AM  
Blogger DanMyers said...

Wretchard,

While showing my lack of linguistic skills, I must comment on your link to the full text of the Resolution. I believe it's Hebrew.....

8/06/2006 10:04:00 AM  
Blogger Buddy Larsen said...

An aside, re Russian arms.

8/06/2006 10:10:00 AM  
Blogger Tony said...

Haifa has been hit by long-range rockets, and Fox News thinks they have filmed both the sequential launch from Tyre, and the subsequent damage in Haifa. An Israeli is saying "We are fighting Iranian proxies and they are shooting sophisticated Iranian weapons at us."

This is the Hez response to the new ceasefire agreement. What a lovely dance of the seven veils France and US did yesterday. To what end? Perhaps to prove there is a serious war engaged on many fronts, which would seem obvious to Occam.

8/06/2006 11:01:00 AM  
Blogger PeterBoston said...

A Hezbollah bloodied international force is a good thing in the long run. It's going to take something to get the Western democracies off the dime.

The Lebanese PM, President and Speaker, and all their property, should be targeted by Israeli air strikes. Even if we look at the response of the Lebanese government in the best light, and acknowledging that the Lebanese army cannot disarm Hezbollah throughout the country, the army could almost certainly mass enough forces to stop Hezbollah from firing rockets in Tyre.

Lebanese officials must be held personally responsible for civilian casualties in Israel. The penalty is death.

8/06/2006 11:17:00 AM  
Blogger Aristides said...

Lebanon's government has rejected the ceasefire proposal. Syria has rejected it, calling it a "recipe for the continuation of the war." Hezbollah has rejected it. Rice says the ceasefire isn't really a ceasefire.

Oh yeah, and Syria says they're ready for a regional war.

Meanwhile, it's obvious that we're sticking with our diplomatic strategy. It was obvious in the beginning, and it's obvious now:

We don't want Hezbollah to survive as a military threat. We don't want Lebanon to fall apart. There's a middle ground in between those two opposing objectives. That middle ground is our North Star. That middle ground is where we're headed.

What's so difficult to understand?

8/06/2006 11:20:00 AM  
Blogger Aristides said...

Olmert shows his hand:

"They are beaten but it is not possible to completely destroy they [sic]. Israel has nevertheless been more successful than any other country in the battle against a guerrilla organization."

You kill a guerrila organization by calibrating your violence to your political objectives. The smart move is to significantly degrade Hezbollah over the next few weeks, militarily occupy southern Lebanon, stop hostilities, insert international force, extend Lebanon's control over all of its territory, and allow the world to turn its attention towards Iran before they reach the point of no return. This strategy makes Hezbollah vulnerable to an ultimate political solution by removing its trump card of military overmatch in Lebanon. It also allows a sense of urgency to be transferred undiminished to the question of Iran's nuclear program.

It's the smart play, from the perspective of both Israel and the US. As Kissinger states, all "honorable alternatives" to war must be explored. We can't do that if the Israeli-Lebanese war is still top story.

8/06/2006 11:32:00 AM  
Blogger rufus said...

The question, I guess, Aristides, is, "Is there a Lebanon, and a Hesbollah, or, is there just a Hezbollated Lebanon?"

If, as some of us are starting to suspect, there is only a "Hezbollated Lebanon," then there is no middle ground.

8/06/2006 11:33:00 AM  
Blogger charlotte said...

This is the Hez response to the new ceasefire agreement. What a lovely dance of the seven veils France and US did yesterday. To what end? Perhaps to prove there is a serious war engaged on many fronts, which would seem obvious to Occam.

Tony, just think of all that extra added intel we're getting during the intermezzo meanwhile, monitoring the hell out of networked cells of agents, suppliers and financiers "stimulated" by the goings-on in Lebanon and the West Bank. Before we crash Iran's nuclear party, the US, Israel and Europe HAVE to find those unwelcome guests in our houses before they blow us up in revenge. (Just don't tell Bill Keller that we're probably eavesdropping more than ever to try to save his sad hide in the near future and that we most likely have the silent cooperation of other "angry" ME governments.)

8/06/2006 11:33:00 AM  
Blogger Tony said...

After first reading the draft yesterday, I said at 8/05/2006 02:12:05 PM that Hez and their axis will surely reject this. If it's so obvious to even dumb ol' me, certainly it was obvious to Bolton (not dumb ol' Bush, of course) and certainly to the plu-sophisticated French, that this "ceasefire agreement" is just background music to cover the real, deadly conversations. This is war, this is the heat of battle, a diplomatic movement in such circumstances is absurd.

So, the only reason the diplomats danced is to prove the circumstances, and prove the meaning of "ceasefire" in the Islamofascist language - just a time to prepare for more war, as it's been forever according to the Koran.

8/06/2006 11:36:00 AM  
Blogger rufus said...

Non-Hezbollah Lebanese? Why do I keep having flash-backs to "Vichy French."

Then there's always the "Moderate Muslims."

8/06/2006 11:37:00 AM  
Blogger Aristides said...

Rufus,

That is the question. And we're betting quite a bit that the answer is 'yes'. If Hezbollah is militarily degraded and yet becomes politically stronger, then we're going to get a regional war. A big one.

8/06/2006 11:42:00 AM  
Blogger Tony said...

Catherine, that sounds plausible. If I imagine myself an Iranian-funded Islamofascist agent in the field, all my anger is flashing red as the hated Jews decimate my army in the field, and devastate my beachhead in Lebanon. Yeah, I can see a lot of calls going back "Put me in, coach, I'm ready to play!"

I can't quite believe events on this scale are actually PLANNED to create such tells, but I'm sure such tells are more likely to be seen and acted on now than they would have been prior to 9/11.

Good point.

8/06/2006 11:43:00 AM  
Blogger allen said...

The AP is carrying a short but instructive piece on the German position on peacekeeping. Among other things, it suggests that Chancellor Merkel is a serious, thoughtful person and Prime Minister Olmert is a dilettante completely out of his depth.

Is Germany ready to help police Lebanon?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/
ap/20060806/ap_on_re_eu/
germany_troops_in_lebanon

8/06/2006 11:47:00 AM  
Blogger rufus said...

I, absolutely, cannot fathom the incredibly slow response time of the IAF. The F-16's should have response on it's way within "Seconds" of a Launch. I know we haven't given the All of our stuff, but they should have that capability.

How is Olmert keeping his job? The North is getting pounded, and they have 1/10th the number of troops needed dicking around 4 miles from the border. Bizarre!

8/06/2006 11:48:00 AM  
Blogger Aristides said...

As has been said many times, here and elsewhere, the only other strategy that has a hope of long-term success is to widen the war to Syria and Iran.

But since that's what we'll get anyway if the current strategy fails, we might as well play this card while we've got it.

8/06/2006 11:49:00 AM  
Blogger Buddy Larsen said...

rufus, but the rope is uncoiling, and slithering up the leg of the little hitlerite in Tehran.

8/06/2006 11:52:00 AM  
Blogger rufus said...

Aristides, I'm starting to think it's a "Bad" bet. Hezbollah reminds me of the Mafia. Once they've killed enough opponents, you can Never truly root them out of a neighborhood.

8/06/2006 11:53:00 AM  
Blogger rufus said...

The worrisome thing, guys, is this doesn't feel like it's helping us against Tehran, at this moment.

I get the "feeling" of confusion, which could severely weaken Bush's support amongst the electorate (support that he will desperately need in order to prosecute anything against Iran.)

8/06/2006 11:58:00 AM  
Blogger ex-democrat said...

keep upping the pressure on Tehran until it cannot resist doing something that invites bringing the big hammer down?

8/06/2006 12:04:00 PM  
Blogger rufus said...

That, ex-democrat is our greatest hope, and strategy.

8/06/2006 12:09:00 PM  
Blogger Tony said...

Rufus,

These are truck launchers, some mil-talker on Fox said it only takes "2 or 3 minutes to pull up the outriggers and get out of Dodge" or words to that effect. At these close ranges and no need for burner, the F-16's have their best possible loiter time, but it's not a 24/7 thing.

We talked about this problem over the past year or two here, and the best tech response is to use J-STARS and similar to monitor the area and roll back the tape, to watch where the truck goes after it launches. Things like Predator can probably get a GPS fix on the spot, good enough for an Arc-light, but this war hasn't reached that particular phase, yet.

The Israelis, like the Americans, are treating war like fencing, with rules, postures and narrowly define touch points. That can't last forever, after a while you naturally go from epee to saber to halberd to rocks and sticks and bare fists, or your best equivalent.

This is an excellent mission for B-1's and B-52's and B-2's, with their unparalleled high altitude loiter time and very full magazine of responses. But as I say, we haven't yet reached the level of threat apparently, that calls for Arclight, or what we did over Afghanistan.

I suppose we are going to soon see the bitter end of this delicate, Mr. Wizard approach to war that we (and now the Israelis) have used for the past three years.

8/06/2006 12:17:00 PM  
Blogger Aristides said...

Counterterrorismblog.org is saying that Reuters misreported when they said "Lebanon rejects the ceasefire plan."

Noueihid wrote that "Lebanon rejects a draft U.N. Security Council resolution to end 26 days of fighting because it would allow Israeli forces to remain on Lebanese soil, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri said on Sunday." Basing her entire report on one of the most powerful supporters of the Syrian occupation and who heads a militia allied to Hezbollah, Noueihid gives Berri the full power of the credibility of Reuters. This title will find itself printed from Yahoo to the last local newsletter in the Fidji islands. Evidently, local editors around the world trust Reuters as they trust the Red Cross, and will conclude that indeed "Lebanon" has rejected a UN resolution, while in reality, it is Tehran-Damascus-Hezbollah axis that rejected it, and unfortunately a Reuters writer framed it otherwise.

8/06/2006 12:20:00 PM  
Blogger Buddy Larsen said...

Tony, according to this, you're right:
(snip)

After the death of Abu Musab al Zarqawi, Mughniyeh is rated the world Islamic terror movement’s most outstanding field commander.

Therefore, while the appointment is a measure of Israel’s belated military success in the Lebanese war, it also brings the conflict ever closer to two dangerous orbits – Tehran and al Qaeda.

Mughniyeh is the only undercover agent in the Middle East who enjoys the complete personal trust of Khamenei and Osama bin Laden, on both of whom he is in a position to call for aid.

8/06/2006 12:25:00 PM  
Blogger rufus said...

Tony, they have the capability to make the "response," instantaneous. The fact that it's not makes me think they're "running it through the Lawyers." Hell of a way to fight the war.

8/06/2006 12:25:00 PM  
Blogger Future Man said...

Abstract thoughts on the rules of the game

* Capitalists believe they will win game (and that the game is never over).

* Socialists believe they can break even (unless the game is flawed, then they will lose)

* Religious fanatics believe their life is merely a qualifying round before the real game.

8/06/2006 12:26:00 PM  
Blogger Buddy Larsen said...

antimullah.com is worth a save:
A Free Iran Can Be at the Core of Peace and Prosperity
in the Middle East!

8/06/2006 12:37:00 PM  
Blogger redaktør said...

rufus said: I, absolutely, cannot fathom the incredibly slow response time of the IAF. The F-16's should have response on it's way within "Seconds" of a Launch. I know we haven't given the All of our stuff, but they should have that capability.


rufus, see vid. 30 sec in:
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-3341298238606073128&q=israel

8/06/2006 01:03:00 PM  
Blogger PeterBoston said...

The Israelis did not bomb the rocket launchers from the air. They videotaped the route of the launchers back to thier holes and took out the launchers and the HB crews eyeball to eyeball.

That is the Israeli fighting spirit that has kept Arab armies in their barracks for all these years.

It took a while, but the old African adage to never f**k with the elephant always works out.

8/06/2006 01:10:00 PM  
Blogger Tony said...

Buddy, thanks for that gnarly link to facts about air-to-ground counter-battery.

The latest MSM / lib denouncement of the 9/11 Report is out, and these desperate fame-dollies are saying NORAD and the Pentagon lied about their response to the emergency on 9/11. The poor saps had to LIE like Bill Clinton in their testimony, so ashamed were they of their inability to get F-16's on targets on that day.

The sky is big, even the sky over the relatively small, seamlessly radar-covered airspace between Boston, D.C. and the World Trade Center in the middle. Our best resources, guarding our very heart, couldn't cover in time.

Until we get the lasers working, it takes minutes to get ordnance on target. If during those 100-200 seconds the target moves, we have a whole 'nother problem of tracking it. It's not plain ol' counter-battery fire on a known (GPS) launch point - you need a video-guided missile to track the sonsabitches as they hightail it down the road.

That's why you need a big ol' plane with dozens of supersonic robots ready to drop out of the stratosphere. (Okay, they're not usually called "supersonic robots" - they are JDAMs.) (Separate topic: Cruise missiles are far superior, but that's like cutting down oak trees with Little Red Corvettes. (Compared to JDAM, SLCM / ALCM's are more like the Terminator, they can track down Sarah Connor, even multiple Sara Conners.)



If you have watched the videos (WHITE + OVER BLURRY LO-RES VIDEO), and compared them to playing video flying games, you'll notice that the bombs don't seem to have a lot of glide and swoop to them.

As lovable Buddy points out, it's hard to hit mobile launchers (and tunnels, bunkers, foot trails, etc.), and that's why God invented Arclight.

Wherever the Arclight touches, there is Peace. Not much else, but peace, at last. And flies.

8/06/2006 01:11:00 PM  
Blogger Alexis said...

I am disappointed that the draft UN resolution makes any explicit reference to Hezbollah at all, for making mention of that terrorist organization effectively gives the Hezzies a quasi-governmental status as a belligerent.

If Hezbollah is to be accorded status as a belligerent, one wonders why it shouldn't be accorded status as a government. This effectively means that a boundary would need to be delineated between Lebanon and a new entity in southern Lebanon. Either the government of Lebanon will have a monopoly of violence or will cease to be the government of Lebanon in any meaningful way.

The Lebanese government may claim that the draft resolution undermines Lebanese sovereignty, but that sovereignty was already abridged when Hezbollah took the question of war and peace into its own hands on July 12, 2006. Lebanon in 2006 is in a diplomatic position analogous to Spain in 1818 during the First Seminole War. When Seminole raiders abriged American sovereignty through their raids, they effectively not only abridged American sovereignty but Spain's sovereignty as well. Although General Andrew Jackson's conquest of Florida was seen as so much of an overreaction that it caused an international scandal, John Quincy Adams turned the situation to the advantage of the United States by negotiating a new treaty with Spain that ceded Florida to the United States.

One main difference between now and then is that neither the Israeli nor the Lebanese governments desire Israel to annex Lebanese territory up to the southern edge of the Litani River, never mind that the Lebanese government has been delinquent in governing the Lebanese south and has been in breach of UNSCR 1559 for nearly two years.

Lebanon's claim of sovereignty over south Lebanon coupled with its resolute refusal to enforce governmental control over it leads one to wonder if Lebanon is to states what Caligula's horse was to Roman senators -- an example of linguistic hubris that undermines the meaning of what one is saying.

8/06/2006 01:53:00 PM  
Blogger Db2m said...

IMO, Kraut is only semi-derrogatory, sorta like Aggie.

8/06/2006 02:03:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Why not send in P-Tater after them mobile launchers?

8/06/2006 02:07:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Bolton 08!
(Sure is different listening to someone you have confidence will not wimp out, and knows the background reality of what he is talking about.)

8/06/2006 02:15:00 PM  
Blogger Achilles Jones said...

Rufus, you are right, the war is simply not be prosecuted for victory. The only reason that I can think of is plain: Israel is afraid that Syria might use it formidible chemical weapons, and Israel is not prepared to go nuclear. THus, Israel is being effectively deterred. I can think of no other reason why Syria is not being attacked at this point.

Since the USA also shows no sign whatsoever of ramping up for action with Syria and Iran, we are clearly kicking this thing down to road.

WE all know what a disaster it will be to defer the fight we are in. But great wartime leaders usually come later, after disaster has already reared its head. Olmert will fall. A war cabinet will be formed. Vital time will have been lost.

At this point, I am waiting for a major HEz/Iran error...then we can doctor the pictures and sell them to Reuters.

8/06/2006 02:17:00 PM  
Blogger Jamie Irons said...

Tony,

As Plato is said to have been ashamed that he did not learn, until he was a relatively old man, the proof that the diagonal of a square whose side has a length of one unit, is incommensurable with that unit, so am I ashamed to admit I have no idea what "Arclight" connotes.

Do you have a brief explanation, or a link?


Jamie Irons

8/06/2006 02:29:00 PM  
Blogger Woman Catholic said...

Future Man said:

* Capitalists believe they will win game (and that the game is never over).


Communists already lost the game and believe everyone else ought to share their misfortune.

* Socialists believe they can break even (unless the game is flawed, then they will lose)

Democrats believe the game isn't so much flawed as it is rigged by Karl Rove.

* Religious fanatics believe their life is merely a qualifying round before the real game.

Life is a thinking man's game and I'm not equipped to play in either sense.

8/06/2006 02:39:00 PM  
Blogger DB2 said...

I have no idea what "Arclight" connotes.

Operation Arc Light was the use of B-52 bombing in Vietnam. See for example,
www.airforcehistory.hq.af.mil/PopTopics/arclight.htm

The first B-52 Arc Light bombing mission was carried out on 18 June 1965. On this mission, 27 B-52F bombers of the 7th and 320th Bombardment Wings based at Guam were used to attack a Viet Cong jungle redoubt with conventional 750-pound and 1,000-pound bombs.

The defense of Khe Sanh in 1968 developed into the largest and most significant air campaigns to date in Southeast Asia. Around-the-clock strikes were made against enemy forces besieging the base, with SAC bombers accounting for approximately 60,000 tons of bombs being dropped. With fighter-bomber support being limited by the monsoon season, the B-52 was particularly valuable in countering enemy aggression. In conducting this bombing, the B-52 crews relied upon ground-based radar to direct them to their targets, where they destroyed tons of North Vietnamese supplies. These air attacks helped break the siege on Khe Sanh and force the North Vietnamese to withdraw.

8/06/2006 02:40:00 PM  
Blogger Woman Catholic said...

doug

Why not send in P-Tater after them mobile launchers?

Cuz P-Tater don't cotton to those folks in Bama, so if'n they got launchers over there in Mobile they're welcome to 'em.

8/06/2006 02:44:00 PM  
Blogger rufus said...

Jamie, arc light was a massive carpet bombing campaign. Although, it was carried out over many months (killing many, many water buffalo,) it was particularly effective when we baited the trap with 2,500 Marines at Khe Sanh.

During the Khe Sanh turkeyshoot (we were the turkeys taking over 150% casualties in some battalions) the AF bombed within 500 yds of the Marine positions.

After 6 mo.s and over 100% casualties we left Khe Sanh and moved on to some other brillian, well-thought out battle.

8/06/2006 02:45:00 PM  
Blogger rufus said...

Oh, and Charlie was still shooting at us when the last helicopter left.

8/06/2006 02:49:00 PM  
Blogger charlotte said...

Carpet bombing? Understandably, people are frustrated with the current situation, but I'm not so sure the Israeli objective is to smash the Hezzies and their Lebanese enablers to smithereens... just yet. Israel's campaign seems more a drive to diminish and demoralize their ranks and to try to lay bare their organization on the world stage, while teasing them into revealing up close their operations, supply lines, agents, allies and communications. It looks like the IDF is drawing them out with tough action that Hezbo terrorists (and their sponsors) feel compelled to answer, as opposed to hammering them so hard most of them go into hiding for another day. Of course, it's very possible Olmert and the IDF are trying to hammer hard but only have a rubber mallet to use.

If some us are right, though, and the sudden Hamas- Hezbollah counter ops are a prelude to dealing with Iran in the next few months, wouldn't our side gain more useful info by pressuring them with targeted pounding and kills and captures of men, launchers, munitions, cell phones, hard drives and paper, not only to degrade them, but to see how they adjust? Hezbollah can always reconstitute and with more lethal weaponry from its Iranian and Syrian terror meisters, if its deep support isn't sussed out and dispatched either militarily or with blackmail evidence.

Then, too, the Israelis don't appear keen on bringing down the tentative but not officially too hostile Lebanese government, which might explain the circumscribed action and tempo of this campaign. At a minimum, though, no quick win or final resolution just now in Lebanon means the IDF will have a vital cross-border presence if and when Iran is hit in the days/months ahead.

8/06/2006 03:00:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

"War" by the (poll) Numbers:
Why is it difficult to demonize a demon?
A senior coalition official, however, cautioned against treating the Mehdi Army as a monolithic entity, as it is a loosely organized body with only parts actively engaged in violent and illegal activities.

"We have to be careful that we don't demonize Jaish al-Mehdi, because look at the polls -- Moqtada Sadr himself is an enormously popular figure.

Why? Because he is thumbing his nose at the coalition," he said.
According to this "senior official" we are supposed to think twice and be careful before tackling people like Sadr but my question is;
if not now then when?
Are we supposed to give them more time to grow more powerful and more popular?


We have seen some examples in recent history when crazy tyrants were not dealt with fast enough or powerfully enough whether by an external force or by their own people.

Let's suppose that the 30 seats that Sadr's followers have in the parliament reflect his popularity, which is not true because they wouldn't have a chance to win 30 seats without joining the UIA and without Sistani backing them,
but even then we have most of the remaining powers demanding immediate disbanding of militias. And these are the ones we should consider, not controversial polls of false popularity.

Some Iraqis including their elected prime minister and elected president said 'thank you America' while others said
death to America and Iran is strongly supporting those who wish death to America, so what are you in America going to do while we still have the chance, still have the determined leadership and while there's still hope?

Will you stand with those who believe you came to help them, or will you let Iran remain free to push Iraq to doom?

http://iraqthemodel.blogspot.com/
Too bad Omar does not understand it's a rhetorical question:
We are soooo post PC now:
Fighting for what's right is sooo yesteryear.

8/06/2006 04:14:00 PM  
Blogger desert rat said...

If one starts with a set precept, say that the IDF is doing the best it can. That it's men are not halfstepping when the bullets are flying.
They have made little progress and will not have "cleared" HB from its' base of operations before the Cessation of Hostilities commences.

That will be a failing of acheiving the War Goal. Israel will have expended it's shot, and missed.
Will it get another "shot", no telling.

Whether there were 90,000 or 200,000 marchers in Baghdad, multiply that may 12 to get the US equivalent, a 2 million man march.

Again the hubris of some Clubbers, always manipulating the realities to fit a "plan" where none exists.

M Simon's vision was "clear as a bell", aristide's similar appraisals all have a ring of possibility, 'til time marches by.

How the Mohammedans will be "fooled" into starting a "wider war". How Mr Bush is just "waiting" to strike the fatal blow, in habu's fabled "Night of Redemtion".

All this when the other reality is just a clear, Israel miscalculated, is over exetended against an enemy it cannot fix to fight. Bled by a thousand cuts, deployeed in Injun country with US style RoEs, just waiting for the French to come save their bacon.

Another set of incidents to be forgotten in time as inconsequental, if Israel is lucky.

Mr Olmert just has to tell the people of Haifa that it'll be a long war. Worked for Mr Bush, didn't it

8/06/2006 04:15:00 PM  
Blogger desert rat said...

The solutin to the al0Sadr challenge is simple, doug, the Iraqi arrest him.

Simple as pie, it's their country and their man, why should Jr be involved, again. Twice the US has ceased military operations against Mr al-Sadr, why should we start another set?
Why spill more US blood to kill another Iraqi patriot? One supported by tens upon tens of thousands of Iraqi.

8/06/2006 04:24:00 PM  
Blogger DanMyers said...

DR,

I have yet to see a poster in such a spiraling depressive state. C-4 makes much more sense in his analyses. Sir, I suggest a change of scenery; possibly a look at Panama as an alternative.

8/06/2006 04:30:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Like I say 'Rat:
It's rhetorical.
I just think it's illustrative of the pathetic PC crap we've come to expect over the past 3 years.
There was an arrest warrant out for him when he had 200 active followers, but this coalition/admin AGAIN chose to wimp out.

A little straight talk backed up by honest action at any point along the way would have kept us from getting here.
Now we're repeating the whole thing in Lebanon, playing let's pretend instead of for real.
As you have pointed out many times,
"depends on the meaning of"
has become the legacy of Bush II.
None dare call it surrender.
---
Has ETD come yet?

8/06/2006 04:33:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

The arrest warrant was fresh at the very time that his guys were killing our Marines!
...and he was in plain sight day after day.

8/06/2006 04:35:00 PM  
Blogger desert rat said...

dannyers
Left town for two days, without news casts. Return to a buildong fropped in Haifa and a dozen IDF troopers KIA.
The Bekaa still a stronghold and Doc Assad still seeing straight.

The French will secure Israel's northern border against the Mohammedans... right.

The IDF does not claim even a 1,000 HB combatants KIA, so let's double it for 'em. Still not enough. The Hes will hold Lebanon and Mr Olmert may get the fires in Haifa put out, soon.

Rufus is amazed that the IAF cannot stop the rockets, so is the IAF commander, I'd guess.

The Sunni Insurgency in Iraq was estimated at 20,000 combatants, Mr al-Sadr can put 10 times that number on the streets of Baghdad, that, danmyers, is a "strategic event" of negative consequence for US and our Policies.

And that my friend, is a fact.

8/06/2006 04:38:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Dan,
'Rat and Trish have heard a gazillion "you just wait"
(for the brilliant plan to blossum)
over the past 3 years.
As he says,
"until time passes"
The time is past.

8/06/2006 04:40:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

BlosSUM:
Nuthin + Nuthin is Nuthin

8/06/2006 04:42:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

So is Jr out?

8/06/2006 04:43:00 PM  
Blogger desert rat said...

Noon, 16 August.
Day before my 51st birthday, actually.

8/06/2006 04:47:00 PM  
Blogger PossumTater said...

teresita,

i run up a really gud thrust and parry tween you and 2164.
ya'll be know'n da habu iz my pal and so sumtime i be call him "cracker" but he just a scotch-irish dude.
i be tryin to for up the Possum"WarParty"Tater's to go aftr dem bad guys
i needs a wisker to wisker wit "Rummy" to see how we be deployed..i keep'in you up ta date on when...but i gots ta say i cain't make sinz outta dis Anglo-Frog deal...umm frog fur dinner
later frum da P-Tater.

8/06/2006 04:47:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Sadr's crew grew a thousand-fold in 3 years!
AFTER we could have taken him out, backed up by force of what passed for Iraqi justice at the time.
(He had killed a popular religious leader)

8/06/2006 04:49:00 PM  
Blogger SarahWeddington said...

It's clear by now the IDF thought it could win this on the cheap and that it didn't have the stomach for casualties.

In its last invasion of Lebanon, in 1982, it sent 80K in and they were in Beirut in a week and had the PLO on the verge of destruction before the US and France balied them out by letting them sail to Tunis.

In 2006 they put at most 10K in with around 3-5K operating at any one time. With this force they've killed around 500 and advanced around 10km.

If they had gone for the jugualr like they did in 1982, put 80K in, they would have killed upwards of 3K hezbollah and pushed them back to Beirut.

There would have have been way higher civilian casualties and IDF dead would be closer to 500 than to 50.

They would be in a much better position than they are now, though.

When the inquiry is made I suspect we'll find that Olmert, Peretz and Halutz simply went wobbly to use the Iron Lady's phrase. What a shame.

8/06/2006 04:49:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Hey, -tater:
Some of your Otter Cousins in Florida tried to take out a lady's dogs!
CNN has video of that lady and her dogs.
(she feels bad about punching the otter, so remember, -tater, she has the proper SUBMISSIVE attitude)

8/06/2006 04:52:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

A Posse of WarPossumTaters.

8/06/2006 04:55:00 PM  
Blogger redaktør said...

It's a long war. There'll be other opportunities. There always are.

8/06/2006 04:58:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Depending on the Polls, of course.

8/06/2006 05:02:00 PM  
Blogger charlotte said...

'Rat and Trish have heard a gazillion "you just wait"
(for the brilliant plan to blossum)
over the past 3 years.


That brings to mind how another 9-11 type attack never occurred in the States over the past five years, as most of us expected would happen by now. Must mean the Muslim America haters are just being kind and has nothing whatsoever to do with our failed President's failed policies, failed security measures, failed diplomacy and failed wars.

Blossum must be a blooming possum.

8/06/2006 05:09:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Bill Clinton's great policy produced 7 "terror free" years between WTC I and the end of his presidency.
(We won't count attacks on assets and allies overseas, or wars won and lost.
Won and lost is an archaic term.)

8/06/2006 05:16:00 PM  
Blogger desert rat said...

From the attack on the Morrow building in OK City, to the next attack on US soil was six years.
Because, cathrine, you misestimated the enmey's timeline for action does not give the Administration extra brownie points.

That there have been no major attacks is a good thing, but the Mohammedans did not have another strike waiting in the wings.

Besides if that were all there was as a matrix for success, by your admission, the war would be over.

8/06/2006 05:16:00 PM  
Blogger Aristides said...

I guess the only way to avoid hubris is by being negative. Constantly, remorselessly negative.

Got it.

Oh, and if you can find a flaw in my prediction, go for it. I'd love to talk about it. You can talk about whether it will work, though Rufus has already made many of the salient points on why it might not. But what I'm most interested in is whether the strategy I've formulated is our actual strategy, not whether it will work. You see, if it is our strategy, that means I'm seeing what the Administration sees. So by all means address that point, too.

You see, there is much confusion here about what we are doing diplomatically, and about whether we will force Israel into a premature ceasefire. Trying to figure out our plan and providing arguments for it doesn't, in this environment, seem especially hubristic--at least to me. To me, I welcome the diminution of uncertainty that a thoughtful, well-argued post can provide.

But by all means, skip over my posts in the future if they are not as morbid as you seemingly demand.

8/06/2006 05:20:00 PM  
Blogger sirius_sir said...

Israel is being effectively deterred. I can think of no other reason why Syria is not being attacked at this point.

Achilles Jones, look over the UN draft resolution on this conflict. Syria is not even mentioned. Nor is Iran, for that matter. One must conclude that Israel would be in a very tough spot diplomatically if she were to precipitously widen the conflict without an obvious cauus belli.

For now, officially, this thing is just a matter between Lebanon and Israel. All else is distraction.

8/06/2006 05:20:00 PM  
Blogger charlotte said...

From the attack on the Morrow building in OK City, to the next attack on US soil was six years.
Because, cathrine, you misestimated the enmey's timeline for action does not give the Administration extra brownie points.


Interesting, DR. So we were pretty much guaranteed a many year respite from major terrorism on our soil based on the enemy's timeline? Dang. I hate getting felt up every time I pass through airport security and now know it has all been for nothing!

8/06/2006 05:25:00 PM  
Blogger ex-democrat said...

".. the Mohammedans did not have another strike waiting in the wings."

how would you know that, exactly?

8/06/2006 05:35:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Aristides,
I agree that Lebanon is still (precariously) in play.
How would you respond, however, to Omar's post linked above?
I feel rather ashamed at what we have become.
Sorry.
(once upon a time it was said only liberals never have to say:
"I was wrong.")

8/06/2006 05:40:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Damn Lawyers!
(ex-dems, too!)

8/06/2006 05:41:00 PM  
Blogger rufus said...

Aristides, there is no doubt in my non-military mind that your analysis is correct. I think you've read our strategy perfectly. Whether it will work, or not, is probably going to be affected by so many unknown variables that it is , er, unknowable.

It seems to me that it all leads back to Iran, always. If we can precipitate something positive in Persia, everything else will fall into place. Without some sort of positive outcome in Iran, the whole thing festers, and eventually returns to May, 2006.

Building up Lebanon in, and of itself, will not be enough to keep Hezbollah down. As has been stated here, in many posts, Hezbollah is simply an extension of the Iranian Army. If the government of Iran is unchanged, Hezbollah will eventually be re-supplied, and reconstituted; and a replenished Hezbollah will, again, terrify the politicians of Lebanon into pliancy.

It's all about Iran, guys; it's all about Iran.

8/06/2006 05:44:00 PM  
Blogger Woman Catholic said...

Catherine wrote:

That brings to mind how another 9-11 type attack never occurred in the States over the past five years, as most of us expected would happen by now. Must mean the Muslim America haters are just being kind and has nothing whatsoever to do with our failed President's failed policies, failed security measures, failed diplomacy and failed wars.


Well, what do you expect? The 24 Hour Cable News Channels can't air a loop of nothing happening. But they do loop every video of blown up mosques, Old Glory burnings, head choppings, Korans fished out of the toilet, curious double-plumes over Beirut, and every Abu Grahib prisoner with panties on his head.

8/06/2006 05:53:00 PM  
Blogger desert rat said...

aristide,
If the US and it's allies had desired a wider war, the beginning of this episode gave it an opportunity to engage Syria.
We demurred from that option.
Instead we have destroyed Lebanon, it's part in the Democracy Project, flushed down the tube of military adventure, writ small.

The idea to fix and defeat HB militarily never came to reality. HB survives and in many ways propers in the current enviornment.
This has come as a shock in both Tel Aviv and DC, it seems to me.

The idea of influencing Doc Assad & the Mullahs with Allied military prowess against their proxy has run aground about 4km north of the Blue Line.

The past three weeks of military action has not reined in Iran, at least not publicly. They are as defiant as ever, their cascades still in operation.

Granted the "threat" of the HB rockets against Israel is nullified, as is the "threat" that the IAF could nuetralize Iran's nuclear program.
The IAF cannot even shut down HB's pickup truck driving, rocket launching scientists in a 50 square mile zone, minutes from the IAF airfeld.

The rise of Mr al-Sadr, as a mirror image to HB is disquieting. That senior members of the Iraqi Government supports HB is no shock to me, the resumes of the players foretold it.

The failures of US training of the ISF was also well discussed, previously, now those chickens are coming home to roost. The Iraqi politicos blame US Commanders for not unleashing the Security forces and ending the violence. Which has now claimed some 12,000 civilian lives. The equivalent of 144,000 US civilians lost in 100 days.

Perhaps this is all part of some greater play, but seems to be more a continued series of setbacks and failures to the policies that were implemented during the past 40 months.

Perhaps there will be a "Night of Redemtion" where it all is "made right", but the US has never behaved in that manner previously, I see no reason for US to buck the trends.
It would not seem prudent to assume we will.

8/06/2006 05:54:00 PM  
Blogger desert rat said...

The Mohammedan battleplan was published and studied, years ago, both pre and post 9-11.
Take the time to ferret it out, it was online. The plans are there to be read, they have been following them with some degree of success.

Look to Somalia and Lebanon and Iraq and Afghanistan and Bagladesh and Pakistan and Sudan for examples of their forward movement.

Look to the Green Zone in Baghdad to find ours.

8/06/2006 06:00:00 PM  
Blogger Michael McCanles said...

Betrayal alert: Op-ed commentators are beginning to say the unsayable: perhaps it was best that Israel not have come into existence in the first place.

We'll be hearing more of this in the near future.

My first reaction is that such a mention is just a half-step away from saying that if we want peace in the Middle-East, we had best give the terrorists what they ask for.

All of which leads toward affirming a fundamental fact about terrorist tactics as a version of the mob's protection racket. When you resist them and they redouble their hits on you (watch the Sopranos, anybody who doesn't understand the logic of this racket) they insist that the only reason why they're continuing to beat you up is that you're not giving them what they want.

Result: if you are getting hit with rockets, it's your own fault. If you want to stop the fighting, the answer is simple: give us what we want, which is the obliteration of Israel.

Don't think that the left-wing version of "blaming the victim" (i.e., the victim justly retaliated against by the downtrodden) can't swallow all of the above w/o even the hint of making a face.

8/06/2006 06:08:00 PM  
Blogger Jamie Irons said...

'Rat raises many pertinent objections, and I have learned many things from listening to him and following his links, but I think he is too pessimistic.

(But I am a cockeyed optimist--
Immature and incurably green;

They say the human race
Has fallen on its ...

Oh, stop, already!)

Anyway, this piece from Strategy Page (excerpted below), does point to a few telling historical facts, for what they may be worth:

But going to war with Israel, as any historian of Arab-Israeli relations can tell you, is a losing proposition. The Israelis are famously not stupid, and take any attack on them as a threat to their very existence. These are not the kind of people you want to fight a war with. But Hizbollah thought they had no other choice (there weren't even many options), and now has to stick it out and hope for the best. Hope won't do them much good. While the Hizbollah rocket arsenal is a new touch, it's not like the Israelis have not dealt with new terrorist tricks before. While journalists are keen to figure out what the Israelis are up to, many of the Israeli counter-terror innovations only work if they are kept under wraps for as long as possible. Pundits love this, because they can spout whatever they want, secure in the knowledge that few people will remember that they were way off the mark.

But if you pay close attention, you can figure out who is going to win, and how they are going to do it. The Israelis are hitting Hizbollah where they are vulnerable, but are not broadcasting the target list ahead of time, for obvious reasons. Just like a few years ago, months of seemingly ineffective efforts will suddenly produce results. That has happened before, terrorist victories have not.



Jamie Irons

8/06/2006 06:15:00 PM  
Blogger rufus said...

Iraq- Saddam getting ready to hang, he won't be doing nukes, no how, no way - We have some nice bases, and, oh yeah, Iraq is a Democracy (for the time being, at least.) Did I mention the ME oil supply is a little safer than it was?

Afghanistan- Osama Bin Missing for awhile, now; it's suspected he's living in a cave in Afghanistan. We have some nice bases (are you seeing a pattern, here? How are the Mohammedans doing, so far?) Anyway, the "terrorist" training camps are gone, and we're rebuilding the Trade Center.

Somalia- Huh? Come on.

Bangladesh- Later, much later

Lebanon- Training exercises ongoing. Some surprises. Lessons learned should be interesting. Probably need to work on IFR recognition/drones/response time. Take another look at that laser system.

Sudan- ? No oil there, see Somalia.

A little real world experience - Valuable

Being right there in the middle of them - "PRICELESS."

8/06/2006 06:19:00 PM  
Blogger Woman Catholic said...

Michael McCanles wrote:

Don't think that the left-wing version of "blaming the victim" (i.e., the victim justly retaliated against by the downtrodden) can't swallow all of the above w/o even the hint of making a face.

The only left-wingers who matter now are the ones living in their own little dream world on the topless beaches of Tel Aviv. Yoni Tidi figures when the rockets start hitting their coffee shops and discos and hotels we should see a wake up and some proper action.

8/06/2006 06:23:00 PM  
Blogger whit said...

Amen Rufus!

Lighten up everybody!

Afterall, "We have not yet begun to fight!"

8/06/2006 06:25:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Michael,
Don't know if it's still there on the home page, but CNN had a video of an interview with Netanyahu.

The InfoBabe kept pushing the line you refer to.

Bibi of course would have nothing of it, but she insisted on rudely talking over him throughout.

Precious "facts:"
"But human rights groups are saying that."
---
(Israel is just as much a terrorist entity as the Hezzies.)

8/06/2006 06:25:00 PM  
Blogger desert rat said...

Ahh, good Doctor, they tell of past seemingly ineffective efforts that suddenly bear fruit.
On a local, Israeli level, this may be true.
On a Global level the basic premise of your link "That has happened before, terrorist victories have not."

Military victories have been achieved by the Mohammedans in Somalia, Sudan, Warizistan, amongst the Nation States.

Political victories have been achieved, by the Mohammedans, in Iraq and Palistine. Bet that they will fare well in Lebanon, likely as not.

Depends upon the perspective.

8/06/2006 06:26:00 PM  
Blogger whit said...

"Topless beaches of Tel-Aviv"?!

Got a link?

8/06/2006 06:27:00 PM  
Blogger rufus said...

DR, you're not understanding the game. It's called, "Nukes and Oil." The objective is keep the oil in play, and the Nukes out. So far, we're Winning; and, our board position isn't too bad.

Cheer up. Have a drink.

8/06/2006 06:31:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Jamie,
re:
"Oh, stop, already!"
---
Eric Berne, Arssociety!

8/06/2006 06:32:00 PM  
Blogger rufus said...

Topless beaches of Tel Aviv?

Another reason we can't let the Mohammedans win.

8/06/2006 06:33:00 PM  
Blogger rufus said...

Actually, there is some oil in Sudan; but it's French, Chinese, and Russian oil, so who cares?

8/06/2006 06:38:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Just don't let your relatives from last night hear about that, Rufus.

8/06/2006 06:41:00 PM  
Blogger rufus said...

G'nite all.

8/06/2006 06:41:00 PM  
Blogger John Samford said...

"Two hundred thousand plus protesting for Hezbollah in Baghdad"

Bogus number, provided by AL-Rueters, IIRC. The actual number was more like 40,000 (CentCom or ITM, I forget which). Regardless, the 100,000 snout count from London was not an inflated figure. So does this mean we have lost the UK? I'm not sure any amount of protestors matter. None of them vote in America, so the politicians will ignore them, except to use them to try and score points on their opponents. And that is a mug's game, since it is about 4 months premature. Voters have pulled the lever for those who they feel will defend America. That is not going to change so long as nutjobs are blowing them selves up to kill non-combatants. The Dems will get waxed again this november. Eventually they will figure out why they are losing.
There is a small but shrill minority of Americans who don't think our enemy is serious. Once they get a clue, it is all over for the mullahs. All we have to do is hold on until then.

8/06/2006 06:41:00 PM  
Blogger rufus said...

You know, Doug; every time we have our family reunion on a topless beach, we're the only ones there.

Defies understanding.

8/06/2006 06:44:00 PM  
Blogger Jamie Irons said...

It's a little known fact that in Noah's day they had topless beaches on Mount Ararat...


Jamie Irons

8/06/2006 06:45:00 PM  
Blogger Db2m said...

Michael McCanles said...
Betrayal alert: Op-ed commentators are beginning to say the unsayable: perhaps it was best that Israel not have come into existence in the first place.

**********

1948 Israel, no accident.

Bless Israel, you're blessed. Curse Israel, and you're cursed.

Secularists: grrrrrrrr*+^($#@!%^&*, who is this idiot? Gosh & golly, do you think Israel can't do no wrong?

O/T, Ann Coulter said: "Cynthia McKinney: One of the most intelligent Democrats in the country." Brilliant cut, even passes PC standards.

Back On/T:

"We're Marching to Zion"
Text: Isaac Watts; refrain by Robert Lowry

1. Come, we that love the Lord,
and let our joys be known;
join in a song with sweet accord,
join in a song with sweet accord
and thus surround the throne,
and thus surround the throne.
Refrain:
We're marching to Zion,
beautiful, beautiful Zion;
we're marching upward to Zion,
the beautiful city of God.

8/06/2006 06:46:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

""Our plan is based on what the Lebanese want and on the demands of Hizbullah,"
the prime minister said in an interview with the French-language daily L'Orient Le Jour.
"
- Siniora, Man w/o a Country.

8/06/2006 06:57:00 PM  
Blogger allen said...

Sometimes it’s best to let the Olmert government speak for itself.

___A surprising remark was made Sunday evening by a minister who is a member in the political-security cabinet, who told Ynet: "No one knows what is going to happen. We are endlessly shooting, operating, and they continue to fire rockets. It's amazing. It is unclear what can be done anymore."

___The cabinet minister said he believes "the prime minister will try to operate to reach a diplomatic agreement that will cease the fire. At the moment we really don’t know what is going to happen, because everything we have tried to do didn’t help and the fire continues."

Despite difficult day: Israel waiting for UN
http://www.ynetnews.com/
articles/0,7340,L-3287433,00.
html

If part of the much debated master victory plan is to make the Olmert government look hopelessly incompetent, it is succeeding brilliantly. A few more days like this and the Israeli government will appear down right French. At that point, no doubt, we will spring the trap on those “wascally wabbits”.

8/06/2006 07:24:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Israel backs down: UNIFIL stays
w w w . h a a r e t z . c o m
Last update - 11:31 06/08/2006
Israel backs down: UNIFIL stays
By Amos Harel, Aluf Benn and Avi Issacharoff

Israel has lifted its demand for the deployment of a new multinational force in southern Lebanon and agreed that UNIFIL, the United Nations force already in place, would oversee the cease-fire.
http://www.yonitheblogger.com/

8/06/2006 07:33:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said last week that Israel
"will not accept a force of the UNIFIL type, that was proven not to be effective.

The force that will be deployed will have to comprise of armies, not pensioners who come to vacation in southern Lebanon, but real soldiers capable of fighting."

8/06/2006 07:35:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

The Great Game - BEIRUT, Lebanon -
First time I've read Sites in years:
Reads just like MSM.

8/06/2006 07:47:00 PM  
Blogger Lone Star said...

Again the hubris of some Clubbers, always manipulating the realities to fit a "plan" where none exists.

Blame it on Wretchard. After reading his analysis of the different events that have taken place over the last few years, I have come to understand that there is much more going on than is apparent. Wheels within wheels, so to speak. I remember when President Bush addressed congress after 9/11, talking about the nature of the war that we faced, I was struck by the following statement:
"It may include dramatic strikes visible on TV and covert operations secret even in success."
I have always wondered about those covert operations that were happening in secret.
Basically, I see plans where you see chaos because I trust this President. I have come to learn that he means what he says and he said that Iran will not be allowed to develop "nukalar" weapons.

About your barb about the "hubris of some clubbers" (Mr pot, meet Mr Kettle). While it was a witty barb, I think it would be more accurate to say that people project from the reality that they see to the desired outcome that they hope to see. I don't know you and have not been reading the comments here very long, but, based on the few comments of yours that I have read, I would bet that the outcome that you are hoping for is very different from the outcome that I am hoping for.

8/06/2006 07:53:00 PM  
Blogger charlotte said...

August 22, people.

Why did Olmert so uncharacteristically attack Hamas and Hezbollah to the degree that he has and virtually invite Hezbollah to rain missiles down upon Israelis in response? Beside the obvious virtue of locating launchers, men and munitions and degrading Hezzie operations, could the situation have anything to do with galvanizing national will against an enemy and getting Israelis used to the idea of bomb shelters once again?

Seems awfully coincidental that shelters even in Tel Aviv are being supplied and upgraded just now, so that they can be used over the next unknown period of time, a period which is likely to last at least through August 22, the day Israel's sky is supposed to "light up." Even if behind the scenes maneuvering forestalls Ahmadinejad's fondest wish, were the Israelis and Americans to preemptively hit Iran soon, preparing and war-hardening the Israeli population is completely smart. This way the Israeli government doesn't have to forewarn citizens its intentions and timing in a move against Iran.

8/06/2006 07:56:00 PM  
Blogger NortheastOxymoron said...

Db2m said...

IMO, Kraut is only semi-derrogatory, sorta like Aggie.

My goodness, where to begin...

8/06/2006 08:02:00 PM  
Blogger Promethea said...

Rufus . . .

You said--"DR, you're not understanding the game. It's called, "Nukes and Oil." The objective is keep the oil in play, and the Nukes out. So far, we're Winning; and, our board position isn't too bad."

That's a good way of looking at it. Unlike the historian who wrote a book unbelievably called "The End of History," history won't end for a while. Your description of the game "Nukes and Oil" is useful. I'm counting on the Bush Administration to keep the nukes from the Mad Mullahs--using as much force as is necessary.

Another game might be called "Israelis and Other Jews Still Here." As long as we're still here, we've won, and the Islamofascists have lost. Bwaaaahahahahaha!

DR, though apparently a military man, gives up way too soon.

8/06/2006 08:23:00 PM  
Blogger Woman Catholic said...

db2m said:

1948 Israel, no accident.

Bless Israel, you're blessed. Curse Israel, and you're cursed.


That's a pretty funky bible you're reading from. My King James Bible doesn't say anything about blessing or cursing Israel, but it does have God telling Abraham:

Genesis 12:[3] And I will bless them that bless thee, and curse him that curseth thee: and in thee shall all families of the earth be blessed.

Now dig this: Arabs are descended from Abraham too.

8/06/2006 08:39:00 PM  
Blogger Woman Catholic said...

doug said:

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said last week that Israel "will not accept a force of the UNIFIL type, that was proven not to be effective. The force that will be deployed will have to comprise of armies, not pensioners who come to vacation in southern Lebanon, but real soldiers capable of fighting."

Yeah, Israel is having her pensioners vacation in southern Lebanon instead of fighting right now, and it ain't working too good.

8/06/2006 08:44:00 PM  
Blogger Jamie Irons said...

Promethea:

Another game might be called "Israelis and Other Jews Still Here." As long as we're still here, we've won, and the Islamofascists have lost. Bwaaaahahahahaha!

Exactly!

I just love it that our very existence raises the Islamoid blood pressure.

These people are fools (wily and determined fools, to be sure, but fools nonetheless), and they can't see that their perennial misdirected anger utterly hamstrings their development.

My favorite facts include:

(1) South Korea has forty times the patents (per year? I'm uncertain of the denominator) of the entire Islamic world.

(2) More books are translated every year into Greek (the language of a tiny fraction of the world's population) than are translated into Arabic.


But none of that matters, as long as you can dedicate your life to killing Jews.

Jamie Irons

8/06/2006 08:48:00 PM  
Blogger NortheastOxymoron said...

"Being right there in the middle of them - 'PRICELESS'."" Spot on! Sitting, waiting, and soon to be provided legitimate grounds and accepted reason to finally build selected parking lots.

8/06/2006 08:49:00 PM  
Blogger Promethea said...

Alexis . . .

You said--"Lebanon's claim of sovereignty over south Lebanon coupled with its resolute refusal to enforce governmental control over it leads one to wonder if Lebanon is to states what Caligula's horse was to Roman senators -- an example of linguistic hubris that undermines the meaning of what one is saying."

There is nothing sacred about current international boundaries. In fact, many of them are disputed--but mapmakers don't show that because it's too much information for the casual reader.

Anyway, I'm in favor of a new era of "neo-imperialism," which includes taking over the Iranian and Saudi oilfields if they don't play ball with us--the sane people (the Anglosphere).

Maybe Israel should consider taking over southern Lebanon permanently--at least until things settle down--like they've gradually done in East Asia, where various island boundaries are STILL disputed between Russia, China, South Korea, and Japan.

8/06/2006 09:15:00 PM  
Blogger trangbang68 said...

A few thoughts as my back pain medicine kicks in:

Desert Rat,That military victory in Somalia is definitely in the yawn dept.as my man said.Who cares who owns that dungheap?
Teresita,Arabs may be descended from Abraham but Isaac was the heir of the blessing not Ishmael.Ishmael's legacy was he would be a wild man.I guess the Lord nailed that prophecy,didn't he?
"The Night of Redemption"will not be accomplished by human hands.
OT-Has anyone seen the photo of Madonna in faux crucifixion with a crown of thorns.Why doesn't she mock Islam,the gutless sleaze.I wish somebody would stick a burkha over her ugly,gap- toothed skank mug.Go away Trashy one,your 15 minutes of fame is long over.

8/06/2006 09:25:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

NEW YORK, Aug. 6 /U.S. Newswire/ -- The American Jewish Committee (AJC) is deeply concerned about the vandalism perpetrated at a Jewish mortuary chapel and cemetery in Sylmar, Calif. Law enforcement is investigating the attack as a serious hate crime.

Yesterday, the chapel at Sholom Memorial Park cemetery in the San Fernando Valley was vandalized, with extensive damage to Jewish ritual objects, caskets, pews and other furniture. Local media reported damage is estimated at $50,000.

The cemetery vandalism comes a month after Temple Beth David, a synagogue in the San Fernando Valley, suffered serious damage in a fire set on July 9. Anti-Semitic graffiti was found on the synagogue's windows. This attack also is being investigated by law enforcement as a serious hate crime.
http://releases.usnewswire.com/GetRelease.asp?id=70331

8/06/2006 09:27:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Trangbang:
Ever gone to a physical therapist?
I just about killed myself taking Ibuprofen, so decided I'd give that a try:
No Pills, no pain, in one month.
Same for my wife and a workmate, so this lady is 3 for 3 in our experience.

Simple stretches and excercises, but my wife's are totally different than mine:
Her back was too flexible, mine WAS too stiff.

Obviously I'm now a believer.
('Rat will say I'm headed for eventual paralysis ;-)
...the timing remains in doubt, however.

8/06/2006 09:35:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

So "now we know" WHY baby doc likes blowing up Israeli Civilians!

Now perhaps the good Dr will reveal baby's "good reasons" for blowing up Iraqis and our GI's?
gag me
Stay tuned
---
Sunday, August 06, 2006
Lebanese Anger
Someone asked why I don't discuss Syria's role in this war. Gideon Levy does just that in this fine article. Syria's policy toward Israel is simple. It will make life as difficult for Israel as it possibly can without confronting it directly, which it hasn't the power or military to do. It will support radical Palestinian organizations, Hizbullah and other opponents of Israel so long as the Golan is occupied and it hasn't reached a satisfactory peace agreement. This is not a mystery. It is what Syria claims it does. Bashar al-Asad has stated his price, which is the Golan to the 1967 borders. Syria is willing to make significant security guarantees to Israel in order to achieve this and might well accept a special regime for the strip of land running along the Syrian side of the Jordan River. Israel doesn't want to pay the price and believes it can thwart Syria's provocations at an acceptable cost.

The Lebanese have been caught in the middle of this conflict for years and are again paying the price for it.
http://faculty-staff.ou.edu/L/Joshua.M.Landis-1/syriablog/

8/06/2006 09:43:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

"Only by establishing sovereign UN recognized international borders will the radicalism of the region begin to drain out of it. In the long run, this is the only solution to Lebanon's long trail of tears as the victim of the Arab-Israeli conflict. That – and renegotiating the Taif Accords."
---
Gee, no mention of IRAN.
And HE's the ex spurt.
Go Figure.

8/06/2006 09:48:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

The real estate war
Aug 7, 006 - Haaretz
By Gideon Levy
This miserable war in Lebanon, which is just getting more and more complicated for no reason at all, was born in Israel's greed for land. Not that Israel is fighting this time to conquer more land, not at all, but ending the occupation could have prevented this unnecessary war. If Israel had returned the Golan Heights and signed a peace treaty with Syria in a timely fashion, presumably this war would not have broken out.

8/06/2006 09:53:00 PM  
Blogger trangbang68 said...

Doug thanks for the tip.My back pain is a temporary strain from trying to get things wrapped up in Bama to move to the desert.The VA gave me a steroid burst for inflammation and pain pills so I could zone out at night.It seems to be working
Now if I could just find a cure for this existential angst.Maybe a nuke burst for Islammation .

8/06/2006 10:01:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Yeah, EMP bursts over and around the oilfields should reduce discomfort.
---
Appointment In Damascus
In March I asked an old friend what he though would happen in Lebanon.
'It's not Syria's problem anymore,'
he told me. 'We gave Lebanon to Iran.'

8/06/2006 10:14:00 PM  
Blogger Woman Catholic said...

trangbang68 said:

Now if I could just find a cure for this existential angst.Maybe a nuke burst for Islammation.

Sarah-dipitously, that remedy was prescribed earlier.

8/06/2006 10:16:00 PM  
Blogger redaktør said...

trangbang68,

Arabs are also descendants of Esau, brother of Jacob and son of Isaac. Interesting reading on the blessing Esau receives from Isaac and how it might relate.

8/06/2006 10:16:00 PM  
Blogger desert rat said...

The Plan
We promote democracy, but empower the Mohammedans. In both Lebanon and Iraq. Palistine, too.

So now it's down to 40,000 marchers, just twice the Sunni Insurgent force, so not to worry.

The Iranians will not obtain a nuclear weapon, means War against Iran. Nothing less. Each day we wait we lose more of the inititive, left to react not act. War with Iran means waging a War unlike the US has waged in 50 years, one we will have to win, quickly, we are not ready. We have not won a war in over 60 years.
Blame whomever you want.

The Democracy Project, the US Foreign Policy Inititive for the new millenium, is a busted wagon in just 3 years. The ISF unable to secure it's own Capital, the Iraqi Government impotent in it's own bed, while a secular democratic Beirut is a distant memory.

The Israeli choose the time and the place for the War, while the timing was right, the choice of place and foe was an error. Quite evidently so, now.

So now rufus tells US that the Dempcracy Project was a sham, a false front that makes no difference in the "Long Run".
That Somalia, like Afghanistan before it, just another shitty little country of no importance. Just like Afghanistan on 9-10-01.
Who has a pre 9-11 mentality?

Name a Country, any country, where the Mohammedans have been rolled back. Where converting to Christ is not a death sentence, as it is in Afghanistan. Where the Government Ministers, while spending US dollars are supporting radical Mohammedans, like in Iraq.

Not Terrorists, as HB does not qualify for that designation by the UN, EU or Iraq.

The bragging rights for doubling the cost of oil, in just three years, that is sure to be high on the Campaign Slogan list.

Vote Republican we'll double the cost of Gasoline, AGAIN!

Call Karl, I do not think he or Mr Luntz will okay that as a Republican rally cry.

The "it would have been worse" is not going to sell, not in this part of the Country, anyway.

We'll see how it sells in CT, on Tuesday.

8/06/2006 10:50:00 PM  
Blogger desert rat said...

And then with this, the Oil Gods are smiling, just not sure at whom.
Major Alaskan Oil Field Shutting Down

That's 400,000 barrels per day, 2.6% of total US usage, down for an indeterminate length of time.

"Oil prices could increase by as much as $10 per barrel given the current environment," Emori said. "But we can't really say for sure how big an effect this is going to have until we have more exact figures about how much production is going to be reduced."

Malone said the field will not resume operating until the company and government regulators are satisfied it can run safely without threatening the environment.

Officials at BP, a unit of the London-based company BP PLC (BP), learned Friday that data from an internal sensing device found 16 anomalies in 12 locations in an oil transit line on the eastern side of the field. Follow-up inspections found "corrosion-related wall thinning appeared to exceed BP criteria for continued operation," the company said in a release. ..."

8/06/2006 10:58:00 PM  
Blogger SarahWeddington said...

DR,

You ask to name a country where Jihad has been rolled back. Curiously, one such country is Syria.

In 1982 Hafez Assad faced a growing Jihad threat. How did he solve it? He killed over 20K in a few days and reduced their stronghold to rubble and paved it over into a giant asphalt lot.

Syria hasn't been bothered by Jihad since.

Perhaps Olmert and Bush could stand to learn from Assad.

8/06/2006 11:13:00 PM  
Blogger SarahWeddington said...

The West needs to come to terms with the fact that defeating Jihad will require killing tens of millions, including millions of civilians.

It will not be pretty. There will be a lot more Qanas.

We need to realize the seriousness of the threat and recognize what needs to be done.

Unfortunately our leaders have not recognized it themselves and have failed to notify the public.

I have said for years that only after another 9/11, only after another mass casualty event will we wake up and demand victory.

Not hitting us again was the smartest move Jihad ever made. As long they keep quiet and maintain the status quo, they're set.

8/06/2006 11:17:00 PM  
Blogger SarahWeddington said...

In a further irony, while it's obvious that there's plenty of guys in the Green Zone and in Centcom that have no clue how to handle Jihad, the one guy that does sits in a cell in Baghdad Int'l Airport.

Perhaps Abizaid, Casey and Pace should have a sitdown with Saddam. He knew how to handle things.

8/06/2006 11:23:00 PM  
Blogger bobalharb said...

Sarah--I don't agree with much you say, but not hitting us again was the best thing the jihad did makes a lot of sense.

8/06/2006 11:23:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

The times Sarah refers to from the Baer piece linked above:
---
"When the last Syrian tank rattled across the border last year, Syria fell back on a policy of trying to seal itself off from the chaos it could see building around it in Iraq and Lebanon.
Bashar al-Assad especially fears the sort of crisis his father confronted in February 1982, when an insurrection backed by the Muslim Brotherhood broke out in Hamah.
Assad senior contained it by flattening the town with heavy artillery. Combing through the rubble, the Syrians were astonished to find that the rebels' weapons had come from Lebanon.
With no strong central government, it had become a failed state, an open arms bazaar and a haven for terrorists the world over.
Today Syria sees history repeating itself, only worse.
"

8/06/2006 11:29:00 PM  
Blogger SarahWeddington said...

It does. As long as 5 guys die here in Iraq, 3 guys there. A few hundred in Madrid here, 60 in London there, people don't care.

That level has become accepted over the past few years as part of the deal of life. It's like auto accidents or hurricanes or what have you. Things like that will happen, but there not really big deals.

If AQ or Iran or whoever did a 9/11 sequel and killed say 5K or 10K or more, the public would demand vengeance. They would demand quick and swift retaliation.

What benefit does Jihad gain by that?

Right now their plan is to wait us out in Afghanistan and Iraq, while shifting their bases to Somalia and points eastward, maintain their bases in Pakistan and continue to do the death by 1000 cuts strategy.

I'd say it's working thus far.

8/06/2006 11:31:00 PM  
Blogger James Kielland said...

Sarah wrote:

"The West needs to come to terms with the fact that defeating Jihad will require killing tens of millions, including millions of civilians."

This is just plain nuts. Loony tunes. And flat-out more genocidal, vicious, and blood-thirsty than anything I've heard from out so-called "enemies."

Sarah continues:

"Not hitting us again was the smartest move Jihad ever made. As long they keep quiet and maintain the status quo, they're set."

WTF? I think the point is that we don't want them to hit us again. That's why we're supposedly engaging in GWOT, created a homeland security department, and so forth.

This is just nuts. Your approach seems to be that you want genocide no matter what. You seem to be openly advocating the worst machinations attributed to the neoconservatives by conspiracy theorists.

The defeat of jihad will not require murdering tetns of millions. The defeat of jihad is what is required if we wish to keep from killing them.

Read some Sun-Tzu.

For that matter, read some Jesus Christ.

I'm horrifed.

8/07/2006 12:39:00 AM  
Blogger James Kielland said...

Sarah also wrote:

"it's obvious that there's plenty of guys in the Green Zone and in Centcom that have no clue how to handle Jihad, the one guy that does sits in a cell in Baghdad Int'l Airport [Saddam].

Perhaps Abizaid, Casey and Pace should have a sitdown with Saddam. He knew how to handle things."

Is anyone other than me not at all shocked that we have someone in here who is admiring a brutal dictator, representing a party (Ba'ath) that is a descendant of the Nazis?

By Sarah's logic, OIF wasn't to get rid of a brutal dictator in order to create a more harmonious middle east. No, the problem was that Saddam wasn't evil enough and that the US needed to get rid of him in order to "handle things."

Good God.


We need to eliminate vicious repressive murderous tyrants so that we can become more vicious repressive and murderous!

I'm traumatized. This makes Japanese militarism, Nazism, and Communism seem downright sociable.

8/07/2006 12:48:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

Now look what you've done, Sarah!

8/07/2006 12:49:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

Listen, James, there may not be any trains in Baghdad, but if there had been, Saddam would have had them running on time!

8/07/2006 12:51:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

Here's my favorite Adnan Hajj picture of a BURNING KORAN
___Ace___ has the details on the likelihood of this shot being authentic.

MALKIN has dozens of links to more photoshop hijinks.

8/07/2006 01:00:00 AM  
Blogger SarahWeddington said...

Were Roosevelt, Truman and Churchill genocidal, bloodthirsty and vicious? Perhaps. But they were also victorious.

If they don't want to hit us again have we really done much to stop them? It's like saying that China hasn't attacked us or Indua hasn't nuked us becuase of our great strategy and tatcics. I'm suggesting the reason we haven't been hit has more to do with them than us, or at least it's in equipoise.

I don't wqant genocide, I want victory or as FDR called for "absolute victory" in his speech on Pearl Harbor. An election in Iraq is far from "absolute victory".


Jihad can only be defeated by killing them. By killing lots of them, before they kill lots of us.

You be horrified, I'll take victory. Or do you still cry at night for the German women and children slaughterd and maimed by Roosevelt's war machine?

As for Saddam, DR had asked for examples where Jihad was rolled back. I simply pointed out that Saddam and ASsad Sr seemed to do quite well at rolling at vack and that we might be able to learn from them. There was obviously some level of facetiousness there.

You win wars by being more vicious than your enemy. More murderous. By killing him until he surrenders.

We seem to have forgotten that lesson as of August 1945. Until we remember it, this war will continue.

8/07/2006 01:12:00 AM  
Blogger SarahWeddington said...

The point with Saddam and Assad was to show that Jihad can be rolled back, that it can be stopped. There is precedent for it.

Even Khomeini got to the point where he drank from the poison chalice. I suspect Khameini and Ahmadinejad would do the same. The question is what it will take to get them to that point.

And are we willing to go there?

8/07/2006 01:26:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

Ot
La Raza’ schools: Your tax dollars at work
By Michelle Malkin
Top White House adviser Karl Rove traveled to Los Angeles this week to pay homage to the anti-immigration enforcement lobbying group for Latinos: the National Council of La Raza.
It's bad enough the White House lent its prestige to The Race's annual conference. But did you know the Bush administration has forked over millions of federal tax dollars directly to The Race?

According to GOP Rep. Charlie Norwood of Georgia, The Race snapped up $15.2 million in federal grants last year alone and more than $30 million since 1996. Undisclosed amounts went to get-out-the-vote efforts supporting La Raza political positions. The U.S. Department of Education funneled nearly $8 million in taxpayer grants to the group for a nationwide charter schools initiative.
(Gee in ONE year, Trustworthy Georgetm forked over as much money as Clinton and he did in the last 9!)
Among The Race's most infamous government-funded charter schools is La Academia Semillas del Pubelo, the Los Angeles public school that teaches "Aztec math" (ancient dot math is the new math) and the Mexican indigenous language of "Nahuatl." The ethnic separatist principal of the school, Marcos Aguilar, told a sympathetic UCLA interviewer:

"We don't want to drink from a White water fountain, we have our own wells and our natural reservoirs and our way of collecting rain in our aqueducts. We don't need a White water fountain…We are not interested in what they have because we have so much more and because the world is so much larger. And ultimately the White way, the American way, the neo liberal, capitalist way of life will eventually lead to our own destruction."
That's the tip of the iceberg. I found dozens of others...

...Under "greatest achievements," the school's website lists its participation in a "Peace & Dignity Run;" its visit from Rigoberta Menchu (the Marxist academic fraud from Guatemala who lied her way to a Nobel Peace Prize); and its sponsorship of the local annual Día de los Muertos (the Mexican holiday).

The White House will tell you that The National Council of The Race is a "moderate," mainstream civil rights group. But there's nothing "moderate" about The Race's advocacy of driver's licenses and in-state tuition discounts for illegal aliens. Or its opposition to strengthening security for identity documents and improving cooperation on immigration enforcement between state, local, and federal enforcement immigration officials. Or its all-out war on the House GOP's border security and enforcement-first bill passed last December.

President Bush pays lip service to immigration enforcement and assimilation, while the White House sends Karl Rove to make nice with the separatist leaders of The Race and the Bush Education Department showers our tax dollars on radical Reconquista schools. It doesn't add up.
Unless, of course, you're using Aztec math.

8/07/2006 02:00:00 AM  
Blogger James Kielland said...

"You be horrified, I'll take victory. "

I'm afraid that your idea of victory would mean that all is lost. I mean, really, there's nothing I've ever read from any jihadi that is as blood-thirsty as what I've read from you.

You've termed your enemy as "jihad." Yet there's no reason to believe that "tens of millions" are apart of this phantom jihad.

Islamic fascists represent a great danger and a great potential for harm. But they certainly do not measure in the tens of millions. And we don't need to kill tens of millions of people in order to stop jihad. If we do get to the point of needing to, it represents a catastrophic strategic failure on our part.

Victory? For me, victory over jihad is not to be obtained by murdering more innocent people than the Nazis managed. Victory is bringing the muslim world into a more harmonious relationship with the rest of the world. Victory is not seeing my country create history's greatest atrocity. Victory is maintaining a civilization that is morally superior.

For me, this fight is not about defeating the enemy. It's about protecting and preserving what I love, a civilization, society, and set of values unique in history. The enemy only needs to be defeated to the extent of reducing or removing his ability to destroy what I cherish. I fear that if our country went down the road you seem to be prescribing that my country and what I value in it would be destroyed. And hence my horror.

The horror does not rise from the bloody reality of war, nor does it rise from realizing that it may need to get very bloody indeed and many innocent people could get caught up in it. No, the horror comes from the idea of that disappearing which I feel is worth fighting for.

Some have criticized the left for not understanding that our survival is threatened. But in reality, that's nonsense. Even if the jihadis created a caliphate from Spain to the Phillipines, our survival would not be threatened. Submit to Islam and you survive. What would be threatend would be our values and our identity. And we'd have to destroy those things ourselves to engage in your final solution.

8/07/2006 02:11:00 AM  
Blogger James Kielland said...

Doug,

Unfortunately, it does add up. There's been a lot of talk about school vouchers and charter schools and all of that by many on the political right. The left is simply moving to take advantage of it.

None of this is to say that I agree with La Raza or the educational goals. But the right wanted to fight the left's conquest of public education by moving to a system whereby the government doled out money to private schools. Consider this an unintended consequence.

8/07/2006 02:22:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

Scary stuff.
---
Speaking of Mrs Malkin, she's going to be on the Bill Bennet show this morning.

8/07/2006 03:19:00 AM  
Blogger PeterBoston said...

If you think there's a Red-Blue divide now, you ain't seen nothin' yet.

The UN General Assembly, which is 25%+ Arab/Muslim, will spearhead a drive to deligitimize and dismantle the State of Israel. The European Union will support that drive along with the usual suspect media outlets in the USA and Europe.

Iran will continue to spin its centrifuges under the cover of the Israel Debate and when the proper messianic time has arrived close the debate with a nuclear strike on Tel Aviv. Israel will respond. Most of Iran will disappear. Islam will survive. Iranawhackjob and the mullahs will have fulfilled their destiny and be welcomed by Allah as loving martyrs.

That's where we are heading.

8/07/2006 03:21:00 AM  
Blogger 2164th said...

Desert Rat said:

"We promote democracy, but empower the Mohammedans. In both Lebanon and Iraq. Palistine, too.

So now it's down to 40,000 marchers, just twice the Sunni Insurgent force, so not to worry.

The Iranians will not obtain a nuclear weapon, means War against Iran. Nothing less. Each day we wait we lose more of the inititive, left to react not act. War with Iran means waging a War unlike the US has waged in 50 years, one we will have to win, quickly, we are not ready. We have not won a war in over 60 years."

Someone will have to explain to me where he is wrong. All the nonsense about massive carpet bombings and disparaging of potential and current allies cannot refute DR's observation about the US not winning a war in over 60 years.

WWII may have ended with Germany and Japan, but the proxy war with Russia and communism began immediately and in less than five years, we were in hot war again in Korea. All the weaponry and fighting bought was a draw. Fifty million WWII deaths, yet in less than five years lasting peace proved to be an illusion.

These were wars about ideology. Nazism and Facism, then Communism, now radical Islam, again a new socialism rising in Latin America, a resurgent Russia and a rising Communist China, are all part of the mix. Like a fourteen year old discovering the previously unknown to the world, mystery of sex, we elected a president that discovered the healing powers of democracy. (It would be interesting to see the accumulated pile of books that George read that gave him this insight.) GWB never heard a single shot fired in combat. He surrounded himself with others of similar qualifications and decided to take us to war in Iraq to spread the news.

We threw our ideology into the mix and expected it to disinfect the Islamic world, Russia, China etc. etc. It does not seem to be working. The answer suggested by some here in BC is the Lt. William Calley Solution, Did I hear someone say DR was a pessimist? There is no single winning military startegy. There is no simple answer at all. There are achievable acceptable goals, but none as as simple or as exciting as the rumble and light show of the arc light playing in some of our minds.

8/07/2006 03:38:00 AM  
Blogger Woman Catholic said...

sarah said:

You win wars by being more vicious than your enemy. More murderous. By killing him until he surrenders.

Well, that's the funny thing, Sarah, since you state that our enemy is "Jihad" and since Jihad is the struggle mandated by Islam for each individual Muslim against the infidel until every last infidel surrenders to Allah, your solution is to go on killing until every single Muslim either surrenders or is dead. You would turn the whole world into a graveyard.

8/07/2006 04:37:00 AM  
Blogger Goesh said...

Within 6 months time, Iran will resupply all weapons used by hizbullah and destroyed by IDF. Western money will help rebuild Lebanon but hizbullah will simply occupy the buildings they need to reconstitute themselves. If the Chrisitans and Druze would not take them on during Israel's engagement with them, they sure won't be able to resist much over their property being confiscated, will they? Within a year, hizbullah will be about as strong as it was prior to the war and will have almost total control over Lebanon. Why wouldn't they? I think this was the last 'shot' the West had over there. Lebanon should have been totally destabalized and Syria crippled. All this has done is to give hizbullah the impetus to totally control Lebanon - they have to now because Israel weakened them. Once there is a cease fire, we can expect some serious blood letting in Lebanon, and the international force can't and won't do a thing about it. then after 3-4 years and these nations get tired of spending all their money on the Southern border of Lebanon, they will leave, saying it's secure and peaceful now. Then hizbullah will simply reoccupy the zone. Why wouldn't they? This current war is about like a knife fight, in which the unarmed man (Israel) punches the guy with the knife in the stomach, but he is still standing and still has the knife in his hand.

8/07/2006 05:28:00 AM  
Blogger 2164th said...

Remember how we were going to put Iraqi infrastructure back in order?

New Worry for Drivers: BP Shuts Alaska Oilfield

In a blow to drivers already struggling with high gas prices, BP shut off about 8 percent of the U.S. oil supply after discovering "unexpectedly severe corrosion" in the Alaska pipeline. BP announced early today that the pipeline problems had caused it to begin shutting down the biggest oilfield in the United States, Alaska's Prudhoe Bay.

It is hard to make this stuff up.

8/07/2006 05:40:00 AM  
Blogger 2164th said...

Fair or not. Logical or not. The leaking pipeline will quickly become a metaphor for Republican chances of maintaining Congress. Oil leaking into sands. First the method of paying for the Iraq war and now the method of paying to get to work. I can hear the Howard Dean yeehaww from here.

8/07/2006 05:49:00 AM  
Blogger Bridget said...

We have not won a war in over 60 years."

"Someone will have to explain to me where he is wrong."

Ask the South Koreans, the Eastern Europeans, the Kuwaitis, and Saddam Hussein.

8/07/2006 05:58:00 AM  
Blogger 2164th said...

We have not won a war in over 60 years."

"Someone will have to explain to me where he is wrong."

Ask the South Koreans, the Eastern Europeans, the Kuwaitis, and Saddam Hussein.

North and South Korea- unresolved.
Eastern Europe - promising but watch
Ukraine.
Kuwait and Iraq? - who knows where.

You make a legitimate point, but I believe the implication was reliance on military victories as the method of solving conflicts and how they relate to the ME. The discussion being about WWII type endings.

8/07/2006 06:09:00 AM  
Blogger Bridget said...

We are not going to achieve a single, decisive victory over Islamofascism any more than we did over Communism. We are in for a struggle exactly like the cold war. We will fight them in skirmishes, battles, proxy wars, and wars all over the globe for decades to come until they ultimately collapse through the sheer weight of the failure of their ideology.

8/07/2006 06:14:00 AM  
Blogger Woman Catholic said...

bridget wrote:

We have not won a war in over 60 years."

"Someone will have to explain to me where he is wrong."

Ask the South Koreans, the Eastern Europeans, the Kuwaitis, and Saddam Hussein.


We have not declared a war in over sixty years. Nothing but police actions, operation desert this and that, and tails wagging the dog.

8/07/2006 06:27:00 AM  
Blogger desert rat said...

The South Koreans, my father went there to fight the Northerners, I went there to defend the South against the Horth, my son returned from there, on the same mission just months ago. That War is not done, re. Mr Bush & "Axis of Evil", Charter member. State ofWar still exists.
Over fifty years and still the NorKs are near the top of the "Hit" parade. That is not Victory, it's stalemate and stagnation.

Eastern Europeans, look to the results in Ukraine, the Russian man is in power, now. The US has nothing goin' on there now. Especialy not anything defined as a War Victory.

Saddam? One would hope that the US could do more than catch the "Bad Guy". Securing the Country afterwards, that is a requirement of Victory, it has never happened in Iraq.
Kuwait, one battle in a twenty year war, does not Victory acheive. The enemy in Kuwait survived and prospered, his Forces still a threat. Just like HB in Lebanon, today.

If those are the examples of US winning, Iran will be a disaster. Because in each other stated case, the can was merely kicked down the road.

8/07/2006 06:28:00 AM  
Blogger Woman Catholic said...

goesh said:

This current war is about like a knife fight, in which the unarmed man (Israel) punches the guy with the knife in the stomach, but he is still standing and still has the knife in his hand.

I wonder what happened to the "Bush Doctrine" that says we shoot the guy before he even brandishes his official Axis-of-Evil knife? If the Republicrats don't do something quick maybe I'll stay home in November so the Demlicans can have a turn.

8/07/2006 06:32:00 AM  
Blogger James Kielland said...

Bridget,

I disagree as to this being "exactly like the cold war."

The opposition is not as organized or sophisticated as the soviet union. War is a reflection of technology, both directly in battle and the effect of technology on social organization, productivity, and propaganda. Additionally, the global environment is considerably different. These are critical, defining factors of which the two conflicts share no parallels.

Nor is there any reason to assume that this fight will consist of battles and wars for decades.

In the late 1990s, AQ type movements were already failing. That's why OBL and co ended up in Afghanistan: they failed elsewhere and populations turned against them.

There may indeed be a long-term struggle against Islam, but Islam itself will not collapse through its failure as an ideology. Islam is remarkably robust and still showing strong growth.

In the long term, if anything, the West will collapse through failure to reproduce sufficiently on a biological level and a failure to hold onto its core values. There is sufficient evidence of this already. If there is to be a failure of ideology, that failure will likely be in the West.

Ultimately, there is little military challenge here. Some raids, clever intel gathering, and a re-thinking of defense away from things like defending coasts with industrial age navies to things like defending important pieces of infrastructure from terrorism/sabotage, to developing a compelling psychological warfare strategy to keep violent extremists from gaining prestige and power. And most importantly, a new renaissance will be required in the west in order to regain its confidence in its own value.

Most of the battle needs to be fought with memes, not machine guns. Our weaknesses are not our external lines but our internal fissions.

8/07/2006 06:40:00 AM  
Blogger Woman Catholic said...

desert rat wrote:

Securing the Country afterwards, that is a requirement of Victory, it has never happened in Iraq...If those are the examples of US winning, Iran will be a disaster.

Then we should implement the Teresita Doctrine before we go to Iran. The Teresita Doctrine says there shall be no more roaring mice, no more Katrina style nation-building.. The Teresita Doctrine says if victory requires securing the country afterwords, then take "victory" and stuff it. The Teresita Doctrine says we may not be able to declare a victory, but its sure going to suck when you try to rebuild your whole country from the molecules left over after we get through with it.

8/07/2006 06:41:00 AM  
Blogger Novangli said...

DR:
"Eastern Europeans, look to the results in Ukraine"

You select carefully - why not broaden your view. Consider Poland, East Germany, Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Moldova, Slovenia, and Serbia.

Had NATO not destroyed Serbian infrastructure, it would be in far better condition and moreso in the Western sphere of influence.

8/07/2006 06:49:00 AM  
Blogger Woman Catholic said...

peterboston said:

Iran will continue to spin its centrifuges under the cover of the Israel Debate and when the proper messianic time has arrived close the debate with a nuclear strike on Tel Aviv. Israel will respond. Most of Iran will disappear. Islam will survive.

Judaism survived the sack of Jerusalem in 70 AD because it had already morphed under the Babylonian Exile. Catholicism would survive the sack of Rome by barbarians because it has already done so. But one of the five pillars of Islam is the mandatory Haj, and it's kind of hard to do a Haj when the Israelis (either in situ or as a government-in-exile with submarines) take a page from Hezbollah's playbook and keep smacking Mecca with nuclear-tipped Jericho IIs.

8/07/2006 06:56:00 AM  
Blogger desert rat said...

novangli
There is some truth to what you say, but the victories there, Eastern Europe, were more the cause of battles james kielland describes as "fought with memes, not machine guns".

That will not be an option if the Iranians are to be denied a nuclear weapon. A military response is all that will stop them. Any strike or series of strikes that does not remove the Iranians from the equation will not be a victory.

To fulfill Mr Bush's pledge of a nuclear free Iran, millions of people will have to die. Unless the Shah's son can fulfill his promises the King returns?.
Time will tell.

8/07/2006 06:59:00 AM  
Blogger allen said...

Scott at Powerline has excerpts from a Brooks’ on-background interview with a diplomat believed by Scott to be Secretary Rice.

If true, the diplomat behaves in a manner consistent with my opinion of the good Doctor.

If not Dr. Rice, her subordinate behaves in a manner consistent with my opinion of the good Doctor.

Read it and weep.

Oh, and indeed, the State Department apparently does have a victory plan; it’s just not all that secret or clever.

CONDI SPEAKS (I THINK), ON BACKGROUND
http://www.powerlineblog.com/

8/07/2006 07:06:00 AM  
Blogger charlotte said...

Lebanon seems to be a prequel, a softening up of Iran's forward guerilla army, a hard hit and looksie up close before Iran is taken on. Israel is getting prepared for August 22 to come and go (all the bomb shelters being dusted off and people getting used to them again), while behind the scenes threats are being issued to Iran, warnings to her Russian and Chinese supporters, and inducements to keep out of the way to regional regimes (Syria probably issued all three: threats, warnings and inducements.)

My best guess is that Israel and maybe the US will take on the Iranian nuke facilities through mysterious explosions and an overt aerial bombing campaign, but whether this will happen before or after the November election may depend on events over which we have no control. The Mullahs and their rabid pet president will be told that any retaliatory terrorism anywhere, to include Iraq, Israel, Europe and the States and further funding of the Hezzies and other killer groups, will result in Iran's seats of power and some critical infrastructure being taken out. We don't want to send in the Marines but simply to degrade nuke capability, weaken the theocrats for others to step in were they so moved, and to humiliate the aggressive, nihilist Islamic imperialists.

If this doesn't happen, I be wrong about it all. But one thing I think some of you are missing above is the fact that al Qaeda didn't dare to further attack the US directly after the interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq. Do you actually believe they'd let 9-11 go without major follow-ups due to their (six-year) bad-guy timetable had Bush not gone on the offensive??
The first WTC attack was no where near the declaration of war scale of the second one and also the Pentagon. The game was on after that point.

8/07/2006 07:09:00 AM  
Blogger Bridget said...

James,

I didn’t say that Islam itself would collapse. I said Islamofascism would collapse. For the same reasons that Communism ultimately collapsed. An ideology that requires a return to the 7th century, that presupposes a brutal suppression of human nature; one that is unable to deliver a decent level of prosperity to its people is ultimately doomed. But we still need to do whatever we can to hasten its demise.

I do agree with you that the west needs to re-think the military challenges. Somebody in these comments, can’t remember who, has been advocating taking the Iranian oil fields, thereby cutting off their revenues. That seems like an idea well worth exploring, when the showdown comes.

8/07/2006 07:30:00 AM  
Blogger Jamie Irons said...

James Kielland (6:40):

I like much of what you say here; it's astonishing to me how poorly we are doing in the "meme war."

My late father-in-law was an advertising genius with McCann-Erickson, and came up with such world-changing slogans

;-)

as "Things go better with Coke" and "Put a tiger in your tank." (That last one we might think of reviving now that the Prudhoe fields are hors du combat, though I supppose the enviros would be up in arms.)

Where is Madison Avenue?

Or at least, the kind of screwy genius that used to be found on Madison Avenue, which could be redeployed to effectively help the world to see the jihadis as the depraved, debased and vicious morons they are?


Jamie Irons

8/07/2006 07:35:00 AM  

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