Monday, November 06, 2006

No surprise

Walid Jumblatt says darkness is everywhere he looks in the Middle East. John Keegan predicts a new war between Hezbollah and Israel in Lebanon. Michael Totten says Israel is back to square one and Lebanon at square negative three. Did UNIFIL come to bring the the torch of hope or to turn out the lights? More at Michael Totten's.


Most people knew this would happen, including some I think, who called most loudly for a ceasefire. Not because they were malevolent but because of a deep-seated human desire to avoid a present unpleasantness even if it means worse in the future. We all know the feeling. Fly now, pay later. Get a new suite of furniture. No interest until 2010; when the furniture will own you instead of you it. When images of bombs falling and the pictures of people dying were printed in the papers during the recent war in Lebanon what was more natural than to want to make it go away? Even for a while. Even for a very little while.

So now hello darkness our old friend. We've come to talk to you again. As we knew we would.


Blogger Cosmo said...

Well said, wretchard.

We say 'never again' but never really mean it.

We're too accustomed to opting out of life's unpleasantness and avoiding consequences for even our most irresponsible behavior.

Sacrifice, suffering and setbacks are seen as failure, to be avoided at all cost -- even a higher future cost.

Maybe it is our eternal weakness to wait until the last possible moment, till the pack of wolves are so plainly at the door that no one can deny the threat. And even then, we'll dawdle, quarrel, prevaricate and look for an easy way out.

11/06/2006 03:56:00 PM  
Blogger charlotte said...

“Because a vision softly creeping,
Left its seeds while I was sleeping,
And the vision that was planted in my brain
Still remains
Within the sound of silence.”

My favorite Simon and Garfunkel song. That vision will play out, one way or another. From whose brain and willful seeing remains to be seen, but the "silence" of constant low-level hostilities and the same old stand-off will be broken. I'm thinking it's going to be deafening.

11/06/2006 04:32:00 PM  
Blogger RWE said...

The Aviation Week article on the "end" of the IDF/Hezbolah conflict was titled "Intermission."

Meanwhile, the USAF announced its intention to "retire" a number of F-117 stealh aircraft this year, to save money and as a first step in phasing the aircraft out in favor of the F-22 and F-35.

An unmanned F-117 would make a hell of a long range cruise missile, wouldn't it?

11/06/2006 04:45:00 PM  
Blogger sam said...

Lebanon’s Shiite community is not monolithic: There are alternative voices, articulating moderate agendas. And if Hezbollah is ever going to be stripped of its dominant power over the Shiites in Lebanon, these voices will have to be promoted and encouraged.

But in the current environment of intimidation, the hope that moderates like Mona Fayyad, Mohammed Mattar, and Lokman Slim will emerge to seriously challenge Hezbollah dictates sadly remains a distant dream.

Shiites Against Hezbollah

11/06/2006 05:08:00 PM  
Blogger 3Case said...

I'm lying on my back now
The stars look all too near
Flowers on the razor wire
I know you're here
We are few
And far between
I was thinking about her skin
Love is a many splintered thing
Don't be afraid now
Just walk on in
(Flowers on the razor wire)
(Walk on in)
Her eyes were cobalt red
Her voice was cobalt blue
I see no purple light
Crashing out of you
So just walk on in
(Flowers on the razor wire)
(Walk on in)
Her lovers queued up in the hallway
I heard them scratching at the door
I tried to tell her
About Marx and Engels, God and Angels
I don't really know what for
But she looked good in ribbons
So just walk on in
She looked good in ribbons
So just walk on in

Tie a red red red red red red ribbon
Love is a many splintered thing
Tie a red red red red ribbon
Don't be afraid
Just walk on in

Just walk on in
Just walk on in
Just walk on in
Flowers on the razor wire
Just walk on in...

"Ribbons" - Sisters of Mercy

11/06/2006 08:41:00 PM  
Blogger iza said...

This sound to be no ending story to me. World is not enough...

Cancer Type

11/07/2006 03:27:00 AM  
Blogger Pierre Legrand said...

Meanwhile, the USAF announced its intention to "retire" a number of F-117 stealh aircraft this year, to save money and as a first step in phasing the aircraft out in favor of the F-22 and F-35.

Well you know when you are trying to keep defense spending below what Clinton did you have to sacrifice. Prescription Drug Benefit is more important to our coddled politicians than the defense of this great nation.

Here is the first article where I covered the absurdity of this war and defense spending in particular.

Candidate Bush on Nation Building and Can Islam and Freedom survive one another?

But does this excuse those of you who live in the States from voting Republican? Swallow your hurt and save your country by voting for Republicans because however bad they are they don't come close to the bad of the children running the Democratic party.

11/07/2006 04:46:00 AM  
Blogger 3Case said...

" your country by voting for Republicans because however bad they are they don't come close to the bad of the children running the Democratic party."...and people tend to keep a much closer watch on the Republicans then they do on the Dems, which works for me because ANYBODY in government needs to be watched VERY closely no matter what their party affiliation; they have the license to steal...I mean, tax.

11/07/2006 06:08:00 AM  
Blogger Habu1 said...

Today is the power to the people day.
I predict the House will install a Starbucks and a Ben and Jerry's if the Dems take over.
If the Reps hold the majority it will be daily catered fondue by "Fondue Oui" and fountain drinks by Coca Cola, that franchise being given to Zell Miller.
There will be emergency psychiatrists on suicide watch if there's a massive Rep turn out and they retain both Houses.
Elect 'em, elect'em good.
Semper Fi and good luck America.

11/07/2006 06:36:00 AM  
Blogger Evan said...

Mark Steyn often argues that we actually want more instability in the Middle East, because it is stability that has brought us our present mess. The reasoning, presumably, is that at the end of the instability will come the true stability of self-government rather than the false stability of the strongman.

The trouble with that reasoning is that the Middle East is full of hard men who know how to take advantage of instability. The US is full of people who, for a variety of reasons, want to wash their hands of the whole mess.

11/07/2006 07:28:00 AM  
Blogger Mark said...

Neither Jumblatt nor Keegan is going to eat Nostradamus' lunch as a seer with predictions like, "the sun shall rise in the east!" About all we can hope for is that Israel will get its act together and that nuclear weapons are not involved.

11/07/2006 07:36:00 AM  
Blogger Habu1 said...

They'll have to use nukes against Iran.
They'll have to turn the country "hot" because there are too many targets and they're not sure of the exact ones that are prime.

11/07/2006 07:58:00 AM  
Blogger Chris said...

Missile Defense; Strong Navy; ICBMs; National Guard.

11/07/2006 09:17:00 AM  
Blogger breakdown said...

It doesn't matter what we learn from previous wars, someone wants to believe it will be different this time and next time.
I don't see it, very rarely does war deliver the results it sets out to do and even when it is won, there is always an aftermath.

We my children still be talking about this. I guess so!
Mark ICS

11/07/2006 10:33:00 AM  
Blogger skipsailing said...

There is another theme here. If the IDF reaches the conclusion that it must strike against Hezbullah such action will mark a significant failure of the "international community".

The UN and Euros have staked much of their tattered reputations on their ability to foster peace in this troublesome battlefield.

I doubt they can but their failure, IMHO has an upside for the Bush Administration. Bush's opponents hammered away at his "unilateral" approach. We have been lectured about the need to work with our allies endlessly.

yet here are these allies staring failure in the face. Hezbullah is rearming while the French stare off into space. The german navy has made no news and syrians are thumbing their noses at the entire group.

If war does indeed return to this border region it will mean that the French and those who support them have no diplomatic standing.

11/07/2006 10:35:00 AM  
Blogger Promethea said...

What a bunch of gloomy maroons here today. Buck up!

"We have not yet begun to fight."

"It ain't over till the fat lady sings."

"It ain't over till it's over."

Etc. etc.

11/07/2006 11:33:00 AM  
Blogger Nicolas said...

informative blog, I love it.
here my home in the net

11/08/2006 10:03:00 AM  
Blogger Andrew Zalotocky said...

"John Keegan predicts a new war between Hezbollah and Israel in Lebanon" - likely enough, but not really a new war so much as another battle in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, which is just one theatre in the global war between Islamic totalitarianism and the Western civilisation.

11/10/2006 03:57:00 AM  

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