Saturday, November 04, 2006

IDF Verus Hezbollah. Round 2

John Keegan, writing in the Telegraph, predicts a new war between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.

There will soon be another war in the Middle East, this time a renewal of the conflict between the Israel Defence Force (IDF) and Hizbollah. The conflict is inevitable and unavoidable. It will come about because Israel cannot tolerate the rebuilding of Hizbollah's fortified zone in south Lebanon, from which last year it launched its missile bombardment of northern Israel.

Hizbollah has now reconstructed the fortified zone and is replenishing its stocks of missiles there. Hamas is also creating a fortified zone in the Gaza Strip and building up its stocks of missiles. Israel, therefore, faces missile attack on two fronts. When the Israel general staff decides the threat has become intolerable, it will strike. ...

What allowed Hizbollah to appear successful was its occupation of the bunker-and-tunnel system that it had constructed since June 2000, when the IDF gave up its presence in south Lebanon, which it had occupied since 1982. ...

It is therefore an easy prediction to foresee that the IDF will – at some time in the near future – reopen its offensive against Hizbollah in south Lebanon and will not cease until it has destroyed the underground system, even if, in the process, it inflicts heavy damage on the towns and villages of the region.

It is likely that it will also move against the underground system being constructed in the Gaza Strip. Hamas resupplies itself with arms and munitions brought from Egypt through those channels. Gaza is a softer target than south Lebanon, since it is an enclave that Israel easily dominates.


When faced with an enemy determined to destroy you, and who if temporarily lacking the means persistently works on acquiring the resources to eventually do so, withdrawal is not an option. It is not an option because it merely shifts the battlefront closer to home and not, as pacifists sometimes argue, "ends the war". The war simply changes location and builds in intensity. John Keegan predicts that the War in Lebanon far from having ended, is headed for a new and deadlier phase. But not the deadliest. If past history is any guide, in any future conflict Hezbollah will be pummeled only until it calls for Time Out. Thus we dig the graves of playing children with the gaudy shovels of our misnamed pacifism.


Blogger wretchard said...

This news story is almost hilarious but it illustrates in a fundamental way what planet we are on.

The United States and United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan openly disagreed Friday on the cause of rising violence in Gaza. ...

Annan's office said in a statement the escalation and rising death toll were caused by the Israel Defense Forces operation in northern Gaza.

"He also calls on Palestinian militants to stop firing rockets at Israeli civilian targets," the statement said.

McCormack went further, saying it was important the Palestinian Authority stop the rocket attacks and dismantle terrorist organizations and terrorist groups.

"That's a little more difficult when you have a terrorist organization actually at the head of the government, that holds the rein of government," he said, referring to the militant Hamas group.

11/04/2006 04:45:00 AM  
Blogger Woman Catholic said...

"That's a little more difficult when you have a terrorist organization actually at the head of the government, that holds the rein of government," he said, referring to the militant Hamas group.

Get used to it, that is the future for all Arab states in the middle east after their current rulers are killed or driven out by jihadists. And some of these Hamas clones will be nuclear.

11/04/2006 05:52:00 AM  
Blogger R2K said...


11/04/2006 06:57:00 AM  
Blogger Chris said...

Yah, but Teresita, now you know why we kept our arsenal of thermonuclear weapons. We can always count on the Islamic fascists to overreach.

It is always better to be feared then loved.

11/04/2006 09:13:00 AM  
Blogger 3Case said...

"Thus we dig the graves of playing children with the gaudy shovels of our misnamed pacifism."...until the bright, white flash and big shockwave, which made us too busy to dig....

11/04/2006 10:45:00 AM  
Blogger sammy small said...

Based upon Keegan's article, South Lebanon should rightfully be a "no man's land". And if any Lebanese family stays in the area, they cannot be considered innocent civilians any longer while Hezbollah re-establishes its infrastructure, re-supplies its weapons stockpiles, and begins lobbing rounds into Israel again.

If the UN can't disarm Hezbollah, they can at least evacuate families before the next round resumes.

11/04/2006 12:17:00 PM  
Blogger Gudovac April 1941 said...

sammy - be careful what you sow, by your logic the 'partyofgod' could define most of Israel as a legitimate target.

Keegan's premise is correct. The IDF will need to go another round with the 'partyofgod' in Lebanon.

However, he is (sadly) mistaken about the IDF performance last summer. There is more than enough hard information from Israeli sources which establish beyond a shadow of a doubt that the IDF was roundly defeated.

Big deal - The IDF has lost lots of battles before ( one recalls the annhilation of the 190th armour in '73) - but the IDF always learns, retrains, and comes back to win.

Even Patton's 3rd Army had a few hard days.

Keegan is also a trifle mis-informed about the VC tunnels. They were eventually neutralized/destroyed through a massive bombing campaign.

There is a big difference between the VC tunnel system and the H-bollah system. The VC tunnel system was a complete interconnected system. Someone could travel (crawl ?) underground from the Cambodian border to Saigon via the tunnels.

The H-allah tunnel system appears to be more of a defense in depth bunker network. The individual bunker complexs do NOT appear to be interconnected below ground.

11/07/2006 02:00:00 PM  

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