IDF Verus Hezbollah. Round 2
John Keegan, writing in the Telegraph, predicts a new war between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.
There will soon be another war in the Middle East, this time a renewal of the conflict between the Israel Defence Force (IDF) and Hizbollah. The conflict is inevitable and unavoidable. It will come about because Israel cannot tolerate the rebuilding of Hizbollah's fortified zone in south Lebanon, from which last year it launched its missile bombardment of northern Israel.
Hizbollah has now reconstructed the fortified zone and is replenishing its stocks of missiles there. Hamas is also creating a fortified zone in the Gaza Strip and building up its stocks of missiles. Israel, therefore, faces missile attack on two fronts. When the Israel general staff decides the threat has become intolerable, it will strike. ...
What allowed Hizbollah to appear successful was its occupation of the bunker-and-tunnel system that it had constructed since June 2000, when the IDF gave up its presence in south Lebanon, which it had occupied since 1982. ...
It is therefore an easy prediction to foresee that the IDF will – at some time in the near future – reopen its offensive against Hizbollah in south Lebanon and will not cease until it has destroyed the underground system, even if, in the process, it inflicts heavy damage on the towns and villages of the region.
It is likely that it will also move against the underground system being constructed in the Gaza Strip. Hamas resupplies itself with arms and munitions brought from Egypt through those channels. Gaza is a softer target than south Lebanon, since it is an enclave that Israel easily dominates.
When faced with an enemy determined to destroy you, and who if temporarily lacking the means persistently works on acquiring the resources to eventually do so, withdrawal is not an option. It is not an option because it merely shifts the battlefront closer to home and not, as pacifists sometimes argue, "ends the war". The war simply changes location and builds in intensity. John Keegan predicts that the War in Lebanon far from having ended, is headed for a new and deadlier phase. But not the deadliest. If past history is any guide, in any future conflict Hezbollah will be pummeled only until it calls for Time Out. Thus we dig the graves of playing children with the gaudy shovels of our misnamed pacifism.