Tuesday, October 17, 2006

N. Korea serves notice it will conduct multiple tests

N. Korea notifies China it will conduct multiple tests: following the first it carried out Oct. 9, NBC News reported Tuesday, quoting a U.S. official. CNN, quoting a U.S. intelligence official, said there are reports of statements from senior North Korea military officials saying Pyongyang plan to conduct "multiple tests." (Kyodo/Breitbart)

Commentary

I don't know what's going to happen next but I don't think any international system, however passive, is sufficiently elastic to keep absorbing shocks indefinitely without reaching some point of failure. Can't say where, can't say when but at some point something bad will come from all of this. (Nothing follows)

8 Comments:

Blogger Woman Catholic said...

My strategery would be to keep denying there is any evidence the tests are nuclear until we see some actual craters. That way Kim will get ruffled and keep wasting his plutonium stock.

10/17/2006 06:27:00 PM  
Blogger Insipient said...

We have to ask PB if the interests of the good old US of A are on the top of his priority list or is he worried about what the unloyal opposition wants. Is he worried about what China, South Korea, Japan and the EU wants(the very same EU that just admitted failure of its diplomacy with Iran. It is time to cut the NKs to little ribbons. I don't give a damm about their human rights and I'm sure they won't care about our's when they send their nuclear weapons to California and Washington--hopefully SanFransicso and Seattle taking out the 9th circuit. It's rather obvious that they can respond with nucs today why give them tommorow. Just saw you on Fox saying that you want to defend America. You could even this operation "Inspient message to Iran"

10/17/2006 06:29:00 PM  
Blogger Charles said...

The Hard Plate in the East where North Korea grinds hardest after the fault lines with S Korea and Japan is the fault line between the cpc and the pla. The pla is the principle enabler of the N. Koreans. The pla is also the "legitimizing force" for the rulers of the cpc as well as a competitive bureucracy. It is not clear in this age as to whether the pla will evolve as the Japanese army "evolved" during the 1920's & 1930's.

10/17/2006 09:25:00 PM  
Blogger summignumi said...

US, Japan and SOKOR need to push NOKOR to collapse, this would hopefully cause the possible strain needed to collapse the PRC government and possible birth a multi nation in the end that would be more pro-west then the current PRC, which is currently arming itself for a show down with us and our allies. Kill two birds with one stone!

10/18/2006 07:07:00 AM  
Blogger Tom_Holsinger said...

The objective of this test series is to proof the manufacturing quality of plutonium implosion triggers for use on nuclear warheads delivered by ballistic missile. NK already has the design for one, courtesy of China via the A.Q. Khan network.

It is highly likely to almost certain that these tests in North Korea are being performed jointly with Iranian personnel present. Iran is providing the money.

The test series will result in a missile-ready warhead much sooner than most anticipate due to NK/Iran having the working design from China. I'm saying, do not believe the usual crap about it taking years from the first test to have a missile-ready warhead. The Chinese design means this process will take only a few months.

Then the combined plutonium stocks of North Korea and Iran (NK alone had at least 50 kg more than a year ago - 7 kg per warhead) means that we'll face a dozen or more Iranian nuclear-tipped balistic missiles sometime early next year.

10/18/2006 10:50:00 AM  
Blogger John Samford said...

Critical mass is about 10 kilos, IIRC. Slightly more for a gun type weapon.
If the USA isn't going to take military action against the DPRK, then we need to see about buying the bombs from the NorKs. N. Korea isn't going to start firing ICBM'a with nuclear warheads at anybody real soon. The Danger lies with Kim selling them to someone who will try and amuggle them into the USA. The cheapest and most effective counter for that is out-bidding which ever terrorist group is trying to buy the NorK bombs. After buying them, we could take them apart and store the pit, just as we have done with 20,000+ other warheads.
This won't work with Iran, which is a different problem.
Anybody else remember the days of 'Millions for defense, not a penny for tribute'? It is pathetic that the worlds only superpower is reduced to begging, whinning and bribing some midget freak of a nation. Is casteration a requirement for holding poloitical office in America in the 21st century?
The fact that the DPRK can manufacture a nuclear weapon means they are NOT in the stone age and therefore can be bombed back to the stone age.

10/18/2006 11:36:00 AM  
Blogger metaphysician said...

John Samford-

Unfortunately, there are two problems with your ideas.

One, trying to buy the nukes from NK would just turn into a rapidly escalating blackmail fest. The US needs the nukes gone much, much more than NK needs the money, so they can feel free to insist on some exorbitant amount per warhead, lest they sell them for cheap to terrorists. And if we came to the table in the first place, then they'd be right to guess we'd pay it.

Second, preemptive military action runs into the issue of somehow keeping South Korea from getting ruined in the process. Given how long NK has been prepping, nothing short of saturation nuclear bombardment will keep North Korean tanks and artillery from smashing Seoul, and probably launching nastiness at Japan as well. Queue global depression.

This latter, especially, is why alot of people hope to ramp the pressure enough that Jim Jong-Il still thinks he can win, but his advisors do not, and get him assassinated.

10/18/2006 02:34:00 PM  
Blogger Chris said...

We already have the Treasury program in place. Best to start Naval Interdiction within the fortnight. My guess is that that is what Condi's trip to Japan is about. I also suspect that at some point, the Aussies will be brought on board.

Agree with Holsinger about the test being small scale warhead testing for Fat Man implosion model, btw. Iranians probalby funding testing program, which accounts for lack of Chicom control. Next up, once kinks are out of program, transfer of finished warheads to Iran for final assembly and mounting to long range Taepo-Dong style models in Zagros Mountains.

10/18/2006 04:08:00 PM  

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