How hard can it be?
Just how hard it can be to predict the dynamically changing landscape of the War on Terror -- in which military action, politics and religion are interrelated -- is illustrated by the complexity producers face in trying to produce a hit movie. Techdirt talks about the latest attempt to write software which can predict hits in advance, of course.
With so much Wall St. money going into Hollywood films, there's a lot of interest in ways to figure how the business can be made more profitable. Investors would love to find a magic bullet to guarantee a hit, but that seems unlikely in light of the random nature of box office returns and the fact that not even big stars can guarantee a hit. We've written about people who claim to have developed software that will predict whether or not a song or a movie is going to be a hit. Now, more companies are getting into this space, saying that the science of neural networks is making this technology feasible. If this were true, it would be a fantastic breakthrough, as studios and record labels would release only the material that had a high likelihood of offering a substantial return. But unfortunately, there's reason to be skeptical about this approach. The backers have scant evidence that it actually works, just a small sample of works that they claim (without independent verification) to have accurately predicted.
Crafting a winning strategy to fight the War on Terror is at least on the same order of complexity as coming up with the formula for a hit movie. Of course just as it is certainly possible to come up with a box office hit, it is also possible to create winning strategies to win against terrorism. But it is a craft, not a science. And the same formula may work in one place and not another. It is conceivable that a remake of Iraq in other circumstances might work, while Afghanistan: the sequel may not necessarily fly. The specifics, timing and execution are probably as important as the strategy itself. One clear area where the comparison fails is that unsuccessful campaigns cannot go straight to DVD.
posted by wretchardthecat at 10/17/2006 04:57:00 PM
3 Comments:
"One clear area where the comparison fails is that unsuccessful campaigns cannot go straight to DVD."
Actually, that approach seems to work quite well for Al Queda, Hezbolah, et. al.
Lose, declare it a victory and let the MSM publicize it as either a victory - or as an unjustified mauling of innocents by the ruthless U.S. and its client states.
Or better yet, do both.
You fell victim to one of the classic blunders, the most famous of which is "Never get involved in a land war in Asia", but only slightly less well known is this: "Never go in against a Sicilian, when death is on the line."
Well, the analogy catches some of the flavor, but there are a few missing pieces. The producers win if they can get large numbers of people to cooperate by paying their money, sitting peacefully through the screening and subsequently recruiting more customers. I suppose that competing studios would be analogous to Iran, China and Russia, always trying to shift the customers in their direction, sapping the available customer base and attacking your reputation.
Unfortunately, in the GWOT there are also the kind of competitors that shoot your customers as they are waiting in line, people who are willing to do absolutely anything to sabotage your production, your presentation, your recruitment and your audience. If you then dial up the pressure and incentives to get the customers in, they dial up the counter-measures. If you find ways to suppress their actions without eliminating the source, they will find new ways to interfere. Since they know no bounds, they might even come into your back yard and shoot the dog.
The question then becomes, how much do you want to succeed? If your determination outmatches your enemy's, and your resources are greater, then success is inevitable if costly. It may hurt for now, but maybe you'll make back your money on the next production.
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