Tuesday, August 22, 2006

1701 on life support

Though many people reflexively disagree with President Bush, his statement that the ceasefire in Lebanon under UNSC Resolution 1701 will collapse unless a major European country makes a substantial contribution of troops to an expanded UNIFIL force will probably meet with wide agreement. It is now hoped that Italy will fill the gap left by the sudden refusal of France, co-sponsor of 1701, to send more than 200 men to the contingent. The problem is that the Europeans have no intention of disarming Hezbollah by force, which would require high intensity combat operations and politically unpopular casualties. France actually wanted an assurance that Hezbollah would be "safed" before they made their appearance. MSNBC reported: "French officials on Tuesday (Aug 15) insisted Paris would resist leading a bolstered international force in southern Lebanon without Lebanese government assurances that Hizbollah, the militant Shia group, would be disarmed. ... French officials accept that disarming Hizbollah would not happen overnight but say an international force could not be deployed until a demilitarized zone was created."


Nor would the "international community" leave the disarmament of Hezbollah to Israel, even under its residual right to self-defense under 1701. The UN actually warned Israel that it was violating the ceasefire simply by using force to interdict arms smuggling from Syria -- arms meant to attack Israel.

UN Secretary General Kofi Annan views the Israel Defense Forces' commando operation near Baalbek over the weekend as a violation of the cease-fire agreement, UN envoy Terje Roed-Larsen told Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni during their meeting in Jerusalem Monday. "If you discovered arms smuggling, you could have complained through diplomatic channels," Larsen told Livni.

There was something of the air of unreality about Italian Foreign Minister Massimo D'Alema statement on Tuesday that "From Israel, we expect a renewed effort, this time truly binding, to respect the ceasefire. It's fair to expect that Hizbollah put down their weapons, but we cannot send our troops to Lebanon if the (Israeli) army keeps shooting." The ceasefire was fragile indeed if the last European country willing to send a substantial force into Lebanon conditioned its participation on those terms.

What a new UNIFIL might be expected to accomplish, in the event that it ever deployed, was illustrated by the current UNIFIL's inability to even be noticed by Hezbollah. Arutz Sheva reports:

Hizbullah terrorists have shown their strength against UNIFIL guards at a funeral parade in Lebanon, where they dragged away U.N. barriers and opened gates. They had been told they could bury three terrorists at a cemetery outside the town of Nagoura, inside a UNIFIL compound, on condition that they did not wave political slogans or Hizbullah flags. During the procession, several hundred chanting Hizbullah supporters overcame the French guards, who said, "They will eat us alive." The mob then waved Hizbullah flags and carried portraits of terrorist leader Hassan Nasrallah.

UNIFIL sure showed Hezbollah who was boss. In a fantastic world of diplomat-speak, the Hashmonean asks the pertinent question: where is Resolution 1701? "Kofi Annan keeps slamming Israel (business as usual), saying it is in breach of resolution 1701 - as if there is a resoluton 1701." The resolution was supposed to provide an internationally supervised buffer zone and staunch the flow of arms to Hezbollah. Those are the words. But in reality the French have decamped, Hezbollah continues to arm, unmolested by the UN and Israel is sternly warned not to interfere -- on pain of being cited for violating the ceasefire. Kofi Annan does well to cite the words, because words are all that remain of 1701.

Sadly but not unsurprisingly, a Israeli cabinet minister has openly called for the construction of more bomb shelters in anticipation of a possible conflict with Iran. It's always a bad sign when a ceasefire evokes not bluebirds over the white cliffs of Dover, but presents itself as prelude to a larger war. The question, even as President Bush sought a new UN Security Council resolution providing Italy with workable rules of engagement, was whether this effort would put the region firmly on the road to peace or merely rearrange the deck chairs on a ship sinking from wounds no one had the fortitude to look on. With Iran signaling its intention to reject the Security Council proposal to abandon its nuclear program in exchange for a package of incentives, the connection between the Lebanese ceasefire and the regional ambitions of Teheran grows ever harder to disentangle. The question is larger than any answer a brigade from Italy, however valiant, can provide.

223 Comments:

Blogger Deuce ☂ said...

If you win a war, you get to dictate the terms of surrender or a cease fire. Next time, win.

8/22/2006 05:59:00 AM  
Blogger Faeroe said...

It seems to me that the UN has violated 1701 by not providing the troops to put a meaningful UNIFIL contingent in place. France blustered at the table, then surrendered the field. Hezbullah parades in the streets and intimidates the existing French contingent.

Let's all hope that Chris has it nailed.

8/22/2006 06:24:00 AM  
Blogger Marcus Aurelius said...

IMO, the best way to summarize that resolution with respect to the Hezbolalah weapons was "Don't ask don't tell".

8/22/2006 06:27:00 AM  
Blogger Triton'sPolarTiger said...

2164th: Agreed.

OT - it's Aug 22. Will Bernard Lewis prove to be a prophet?

Russian plane down over Ukraine / 170 souls lost, according to FOXNEWS...

8/22/2006 06:29:00 AM  
Blogger Teresita said...

chris said:

However, what is still uncertain from our point of view is the makeup of the Israeli Government. The Olmert Government is painfully indecisive. That is the proximate cause of much of Israel's misfortune in the last war. That needs to be changed.

Peretz will probably take the fall for the botched campaign and be pushed aside to allow Netanyahu to take the defense minister slot (this is possible because Olmert's Kadima party is centrist). Of course, Olmert will hamstring Netanyahu with edicts and the next conflict will be botched as well, but the third time's the charm!

8/22/2006 06:33:00 AM  
Blogger Ed onWestSlope said...

Statements like the following amaze me. Not because I have a 'dream like' view of how the world operates but, that such statements, when taken in context, are allowed to stand without ridicule.

" Italian Foreign Minister Massimo D'Alema statement on Tuesday that "From Israel, we expect a renewed effort, this time truly binding, to respect the ceasefire. It's fair to expect that Hizbollah put down their weapons, but we cannot send our troops to Lebanon if the (Israeli) army keeps shooting." "

2164 says it well "Next time, Win"

Now it is time to impress the good ole U.S of A. to do the same.

8/22/2006 06:34:00 AM  
Blogger Teresita said...

triton said:

OT - it's Aug 22. Will Bernard Lewis prove to be a prophet Russian plane down over Ukraine / 170 souls lost, according to FOXNEWS...

Well, bear in mind, NATO has codenamed this plane "Careless":

15 December 1997: A Tu-154 crashes in the United Arab Emirates, killing 85 passengers and crew.

29 August 1996: A Tu-154 crashes into a mountain top, killing all 143 people on board.

7 December 1995: A Tu-154 with 97 people aboard disappears en route to the far eastern city of Khabarovsk.

3 January 1994: All 124 people on board a Tu-154 plane are killed when it crashes in Siberia, as well as a farmer on the ground.

8/22/2006 06:45:00 AM  
Blogger Teresita said...

hk vol wrote:

OK, we complain through "diplomatic channels." Now what are you going to do about it? Nothing? Then what is the point of going through "diplomatic channels?"

To cover up the fact that you are accepting what you had previously declared was unacceptable.

8/22/2006 06:46:00 AM  
Blogger Triton'sPolarTiger said...

teresita:

Definitely a checkered history - the FOX report didn't lay out that level of detail, but did indicate this particular piece of equipment has been problematic in the past.

I fly this evening - big US city to midsized US city - US carrier - regional jet... not overly concerned... but will be a bit more "curious" about fellow pasengers than normal.

8/22/2006 06:55:00 AM  
Blogger luc said...

When you think of how Israel will do in the next war, keep in mind the following paragraph from the DebkaFilearticle entitled “Mounting protest among Israeli army reservists who served in Lebanon against the military and national leadership” August 21, 2006, 8:22 AM (GMT+02:00):

“The reservists repeated the grievances of other units that they were sent into battle without appropriate equipment, food or water. Worst of all, their orders were confused, contradictory and unrelated to what they found in the field. Tactical intelligence data was missing throughout the campaign, forcing them to fight blind.

Last week, the brigade’s commander, Col. Shlomi Cohen, called the protesters “impertinent” and threatened them with court martial.”

I would suggest that if TODAY, not tomorrow or next week, Col. Shlomi Cohen is still the brigade commander, Israel will not do any better next time.

8/22/2006 06:58:00 AM  
Blogger snowonpine said...

The appeal to the UN--that bunch of venal, malevolent clowns--has now become a comic opera or circus act with Kofi and co. arriving in the clown car. France as "Miles Gloriosus" is perfect for its role. The Italians, warriors all--of whom the Germans said in WWII that their tanks had 10 gears, all in reverse--should probably each be issued with a big red nose to complete their uniform for their performance as the ferocious keepers of the peace.

Do we need, do we even want the approval of this pack of fools? Fools, I might add, that overwhelmingly suport the goals of Islam. What a waste of time and energy that could be much more productively used in seeing to Israel's and our own defenses.

8/22/2006 06:59:00 AM  
Blogger Triton'sPolarTiger said...

habu_3:

Similar concerns here - I understand Bush is trying to form another coalition wrt Iran, but when I hear him say that there should be consequences for those who thumb their noses at the security council, I find myself thinking "Whoaaaaaa there, Tex, don't delegitimize thumbing ones' nose at the SC - the way the UN is going, we're gonna have to do that one of these days."

8/22/2006 07:06:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

I volunteer to police the beaches of Lebanon once Hizbollah is disarmed.
M. Doug

8/22/2006 07:12:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

Rufus,
I posted 20 deaths vs 1000 last year at your big religious function.
Good Show!
Peace be Upon You.

8/22/2006 07:14:00 AM  
Blogger luc said...

snowpine, maybe I am prejudiced but I think the Italians in WW2 nad recently in Iraq have shown incomparably more spine than the French. However, that may be irrelevant in regard to 1701, as teh italians seemto have second thoughts also. But I wonder if maybe we are too harsh on UNIFIL and make too many excuses for the Lebanese themselves; why do we accept so easily that Lebanon is unable to disarm Hezbollah? Maybe preventing another civil war in Lebanon is not such a good idea! O what a heresyOh, what a heresy to suggest that a nation of several millions should be able to dispose of an unwanted private army, even if it is supported by one third of the population.

8/22/2006 07:15:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

Yeah, past ANOTHER Soviet Air Disaster.

8/22/2006 07:15:00 AM  
Blogger Mad Fiddler said...

Sure, give the ass-lick diplomats their chance
Again to do their useless little dance.
Each UN puke his own career advance
by winking while hizb’allah’s folks enhance
their weapons which so frightened bitty France.
At smuggled arms they’ll look askance.
At last we see that Koffi wears no pants.

8/22/2006 07:16:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

And the Weiner of the Nubile Piece Prize will be France.

8/22/2006 07:21:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

"I hope you had a good year. When do you meet with the banker? "
He complains about $4/bu wheat, when he should be paying to ride around in that Bentley.
I survived the old Tricycle Turnover Model.
FARMALL!

8/22/2006 07:26:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

Habu,
I was tasked with mowing the lawn on a Nike Base with a Farmall.
Dozed off, and the axle snared the cyclone fence, steering tractor into the fence, ripping out same!

8/22/2006 07:29:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

We had a 56 Farmall:
Can anybody top that?

8/22/2006 07:30:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

That means "no."
Take care of old Habu, tater, he's gittin frail.

8/22/2006 07:34:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

How we survived, I'll never know.
I lost a few parts myself.

8/22/2006 07:37:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

I worked for a guy that disked himself in, and survived, then his nephew almost killed me w/a D-6 Shaker rig.
(walnut farmer)

8/22/2006 07:40:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

Rufus,
Can't be DISPROPORTIONATE!

8/22/2006 07:46:00 AM  
Blogger Deuce ☂ said...

I guess I'm older than I thought, but there was not much I could not hit with the M1 Garand Rifle.

8/22/2006 07:46:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

I could do a mean parade rest with an M-1 Carbine.

8/22/2006 07:53:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

Rufus,
Child Molesters and Senators should be searchable on the internet.

8/22/2006 07:57:00 AM  
Blogger Tarnsman said...

The Germans in WWII hated the M-1 Grand and for good reason. Awesome weapon. Sometimes the old ways are the best ways.

8/22/2006 07:57:00 AM  
Blogger Deuce ☂ said...

Back on topic. Israel will have to finish the job it started and botched. They will get no satisfaction from any UN resolution. No one will do her work for her. How long will it take them to prepare and execute? Just how out of fighting form is the IDF?

8/22/2006 08:00:00 AM  
Blogger Mad Fiddler said...

Well... I hope everybody has got all the piss and vinegar out of their system now so we can return to the sober discussion of Sonia and her most favored nookie treats.

My firefighter “wife-that-was” liked to relax when she got home from her shift at the station by hopping on her tractor and dragging tree stumps and boulders from the fields. Or using the snow-plow front end attachment to bury a road-killed deer carcass under the compost.

Come to think of it, I got out just in time.

My idea of gardening has always been to use a hand-powered spade. That’ll never get me in line for a Department of Ag Money-for-NOT-cultivating allotment. Too dumb to recognize a sure thing.
- - - - - - - - - - -

Feels like 4th of July — “Wonder where’s the best place to watch the fireworks?”

8/22/2006 08:02:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

Bobal,
But you never told us what part of that woman you broke!

8/22/2006 08:03:00 AM  
Blogger PeterBoston said...

I can usually catch a glimpse of the silver lining in the darkest cloud, even if it's a passing reflection, but I ain't seeing none of it here.

Is there any reason to believe that Olmert will act any differently if the katys start flying into N. Israel again? I doubt it. When the IDF finally sprinted to the Litani I thought it was to encircle and then attrit HB during a withdrawal to the border. It seemed a reasonable plan but ended up as ephemeral as every other IDF bold move.

Even if there were a no-confidence vote today there wouldn't be elections for 90 days. The Israelis are stuck with the incompetent liberals they elected and may pay more dearly for it than anyone could have imagined.

I would like very much to hear the explanation of how this French/European perfidy works to our advantage. I know that at least some hold the view that the French are smarter than the rest of us and are working a master plan.

8/22/2006 08:03:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

"bury a road-killed deer carcass under the compost"
How about her armpits?

8/22/2006 08:05:00 AM  
Blogger Deuce ☂ said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

8/22/2006 08:08:00 AM  
Blogger Mad Fiddler said...

Dear triton’spolartiger,

Is the apostrophe in your nom-de-net like the apostrophe in Hizb’allah? Should we be worried?
And if so, what’s a “spolartiger?”

Seriously, good luck with the body cavity searches. They say it’s easier if you learn to relax. I recommend mineral oil over Vicks Vapo-Rub.

8/22/2006 08:10:00 AM  
Blogger Mad Fiddler said...

Doug...

shaved.

That's one of several things that fooled me.

8/22/2006 08:12:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

"3 January 1994: All 124 people on board a Tu-154 plane are killed when it crashes in Siberia, as well as a farmer on the ground."
---
Time to retire, for sure Bobal, thank your lucky stars.
(not the Red One)

8/22/2006 08:15:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

:-)
Fiddler: Stealth Cave Woman!

8/22/2006 08:16:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

Tastes do change with age, tho.

8/22/2006 08:17:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

(re: Cave Women)

8/22/2006 08:18:00 AM  
Blogger Ash said...

habu_3 asked:

"Why do we continnue to pay any attention or play any games with the UN?"

The answer, even Bush can now tell you after our experiences of trying to 'go it alone', is that it is in our interest to engage at the UN.

8/22/2006 08:20:00 AM  
Blogger Deuce ☂ said...

Iran reported ready for 'serious negotiations' on nuclear program

Tuesday, August 22, 2006; Posted: 10:56 a.m. EDT (14:56 GMT)

"TEHRAN, Iran (CNN) -- Iran's top nuclear negotiator Tuesday delivered his country's response to a package of incentives offered by the U.N. Security Council's five permanent members plus Germany in exchange for halting its uranium enrichment program, Iranian media reported.

Iranian TV reported that the response includes an offer to return immediately to serious negotiations on Iran's nuclear program in the coming days, but did not address the sticking point of whether the Islamic republic will put the brakes on its nuclear activities first."...

They are very serious this time.

8/22/2006 08:20:00 AM  
Blogger Mad Fiddler said...

... very serious about continuing obstructive contrarian tactics.

8/22/2006 08:24:00 AM  
Blogger Evan said...

Dave H. wrote:

We probably (I hope) learned a valuable lesson from the Lebannese Fiasco, and some subsequent rvents in the UK.

The main lesson we are learning, I think, is that Western Europe (Britain excepted) has no resources left for any global military activity because they have spent it all on the welfare state. I'm not sure anyone, in the U.S. government or elsewhere, fully understands the implications of the retreat of Europe from military means. At a minimum it means more European free-riding on the American military when they decide military action is necessary, and more resistance to the whole idea of military force when it's not. But beyond that, no one knows.

8/22/2006 08:26:00 AM  
Blogger PeterBoston said...

I'm getting too old to break any woman

The only difference between young and old is that when you're young you acutally think you're in charge. When you get older you know that you never were and never will be.

8/22/2006 08:35:00 AM  
Blogger Ash said...

PeterBoston said...

I'm getting too old to break any woman

The only difference between young and old is that when you're young you acutally think you're in charge. When you get older you know that you never were and never will be.

aye, the key to a long marriage is the liberal (can I use that word here?) use of the phrase "Yes Dear"

8/22/2006 08:43:00 AM  
Blogger PeterBoston said...

BUCHAREST (Reuters) - Romanian oil firm Grup Servicii Petroliere (GSP) said on Tuesday one of its offshore drilling rigs in the Gulf came under attack by an Iranian military helicopter. Al Reuters

Sounds more like a contract dispute than a dustup but certainly an indication of Iran flexing some muscle.

8/22/2006 08:43:00 AM  
Blogger Meme chose said...

I think this brief conflict represents a significant step forward in the 'Phony War' which has been going on for some years now.

It gave the Israelis a wake up call they clearly needed, concerning the state of the IDF and the capabilities of their leaders. The Israeli people seem to have got the message, even if their leaders haven't yet.

It has also forced the 'old Europeans' into the open, by clearly demonstrating that their armed forces and their politicians are ready to do anything except fight.

Somebody pointed out the other day (Mark Steyn?) that all of the multiculturalists' carping is based on an assumption that we win militarily every time, as without that one assumption their critiques are all irrelevant. As soon as people in Europe realize that in practice today they have no defense at all, 75% of them will abandon the multicultural illusion. It will become unfashionable overnight even to admit that one ever subscribed to such ideas (cf UK, 1939).

This conflict in Lebanon, and the current comedic aftermath to its interruption, represent a useful milestone on the way to the realization that Europe is defenceless because its largest coutries have no defense capability. A realization which is right now sinking into the consciousness of many Europeans as well as Israelis. This is the precursor to real fear, the one thing left capable of creating resolve.

That this was achieved in just a few weeks, with the loss of just a couple of thousand lives, and preserving a 10:1 IDF:Hezbollah kill ration is as good news as we are likely to get, as we slide towards the inevitable wider war.

8/22/2006 08:50:00 AM  
Blogger PeterBoston said...

meme chose

Anyalytically you are probably right-on but there is no evidence leading to the belief that Old Europe will act any differently six months or six years from now.

If anything the evidence shows the Islamists gaining more influence in European affairs, both internally and externally.

8/22/2006 09:00:00 AM  
Blogger Meme chose said...

peterboston

Wait till you see what real fear can achieve in an instant. For one thing, many of the 'unhinged left' will swing over to become equally 'unhinged' in their demand for the capability to do some real damage to the enemy. With Europe the issue always seems to be whether the insouciance been allowed to run along until it is too late to respond effectively.

One would think that in an age of nuclear weapons this 'too late' point could not arrive, but in fact European nuclear arsenals are pitifully small. The Arabs may suddenly surprise Europe in this area, just as Hitler did in conventional terms.

8/22/2006 09:10:00 AM  
Blogger ppab said...

Re: European defense

Janes explains the following for the 2006 Defence Conference:

"Unlike the United States, Europe has no huge and excellently financed buyer with the power of the Department of Defense. The ministries of the European Union have neither collective vision nor individual budgets that are capable of shaping European provision, acquisition and the positions of defence industry suppliers. [...] It is in the demand side of European defence that the greatest obstacles to efficiency and economy lie[...]"

The states just don't "want" defense.

On the anecdotal side, I've had many europeans chide me for gun ownership, specifically criticizing the implicit self-importance in advocating self-defense - especially by means of firearms.

They laughed, thought it was beyond practical - that security was open to cultural interpretations like food, and American notions of security were as just as offensive as the demons fought by brave men such as Morgan Spurlock, Eric Schlosser and Naomi Klein.

Nike & McDonalds and the Avian flu are on their radars. Funny how the warmongering barbarians are just purveyors of kabob, hookahs and mysterious passions.

8/22/2006 09:11:00 AM  
Blogger ppab said...

re: the "third option" i.e. the "vigilantes" etc

http://www.janes.com/security/law_enforcement/news/jdw/jdw060809_2_n.shtml

UK-based security specialist ArmorGroup has called upon the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) to create a "more responsible" private security industry by means of universal rules of engagement (RoE).

Hired by governments and the private sector, private security companies (PSCs) are carrying out direct-action tasks, close protection, surveillance work and mine detection in over 50 countries worldwide, with varying RoE.

According to international humanitarian law, staff of PSCs, which are not part of the armed forces of a state, may not be targeted and may not take a direct part in hostilities.

If PSCs choose to take part in direct-action operations, they lose protection from attack and if captured are not entitled to 'prisoner of war' status and can be tried for participation in hostilities, even if they have not violated international humanitarian law.

A spokesman for the ICRC said: "Different measures both before and during deployment are essential, including standard operating procedures and rules of engagement that comply with international humanitarian law."

Something like this could develop into a regime for privateers thats more advantageous than the bottleneck present within Letters of Marque, right?

Something to follow...

8/22/2006 09:15:00 AM  
Blogger Meme chose said...

It is worth noting, by the way, that this latest Franco-Italian fiasco is likely to accelerate a major shift in the GWOT which is already under way. The Islamists are in my view increasingly going to target Europe rather that the US.

The US has established itself as the enemy which strikes back hard. Europe has revealed itself quite differently. The necessary Muslim networks are in place in Europe on a large scale in Europe, not so in the US.

Now we see the scenario about which the Europeans have been concerned for so long, from the moment it became clear that GWB intended to deliver a sustained rather than a pro forma response to 9/11.

They were right to be concerned.

8/22/2006 09:19:00 AM  
Blogger Teresita said...

peterboston said:


If anything the evidence shows the Islamists gaining more influence in European affairs, both internally and externally.

So even if the international community succeeds in stopping the Iranians from getting a "Muslim Bomb" who's to stop the Muslims from winning control of France's Bomb by a combination of ballot box and brown-shirt style intimidation?

8/22/2006 09:31:00 AM  
Blogger buddy larsen said...

teresita, that very thing is hinted at in today's WSJ. The coming Shia love for democracy and the ballot box.

8/22/2006 09:39:00 AM  
Blogger PeterBoston said...

meme chose

If you were OBL's security adviser wouldn't the European Strategy have been the best way to go from Day One? OBL went the bridge too far on 911 and lost his chance at international legitimacy in Afghanistan. Perhaps attacking the Big Satan was conceived as a recruiting tool but sporadic successes notwithstanding Europe was always the better target.

teresita

We all have fun with France's lack of military vigor but there is little doubt in my mind that the French government has a line across which the Islamists will not be allowed to cross. During the carbeque there were no incidents in the "French" districts in Paris. I don't think that was coincidental.

The French are asses but they will remain distincly French asses regardless of Abdul's intentions.

8/22/2006 09:41:00 AM  
Blogger Triton'sPolarTiger said...

meme chose:

It is worth noting, by the way, that this latest Franco-Italian fiasco is likely to accelerate a major shift in the GWOT which is already under way. The Islamists are in my view increasingly going to target Europe rather that the US.

Good point. The jihadis would do well to remember that Europeans have shown the capacity to get downright nasty in the past... pushed enough, Europeans just might harden sufficiently to become suitable allies... but not before a bunch of'em die first, I'd wager.

8/22/2006 09:47:00 AM  
Blogger ppab said...

Meme:

Agreed, Sudan, Somalia and Spain seem like the designations. Barnett suggested in his CSPAN presentation the other day that this may be a sign of success - we can't nuke them all, so lets get them away from the valuable stuff, i.e. energy resources.

The fight doesnt end in Somalia, Sudan and Spain, but it may create a situation more favorable to US interests. The problem becomes one of containing the jihadi forces in these areas. This area would include Europe. Something to get used to maybe?

And how do we protect ourselves from Europeans?

Take LMT's latest skunkworks offering:

"Polecat technology could lead to two operational vehicles, according to Cappuccio: an intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) vehicle with a U-2-like (1,800 kg) sensor payload and a 24-hour endurance; or a long-range strike aircraft with a 6,800 kg payload and a 3,700 km operational radius. He added, however, that Lockheed Martin is still pushing the idea of a supersonic UCAS for the LRS mission, citing studies that show that it would be seven times more survivable than a subsonic UCAS and five times better than the FB-22 bomber derivative of the F-22 fighter."

from here

Technology is no substitute for strategy, but new tools can offer new options.

This is one step closer to the prophesized swarms of weaponized insects swarming around the post-caliphate deserts.

Question is, what do we do about Dearborn?

8/22/2006 09:50:00 AM  
Blogger Triton'sPolarTiger said...

mad fiddler:

The handle correctly transcribed would be Triton's Polar Tiger. I just squeezed'em together to make something easier to type. Shoulda pulled the apostrophe...

But, not to worry - native-born, constitution-loving, American citizen residing in the true heart of the country, the US South...

Most of my friends sound like P_Tater. ;-)

8/22/2006 09:53:00 AM  
Blogger buddy larsen said...

(ht instapundit) This is a good essay on the changing popular attitudes toward the war-fighting prowess of the western elites (good links, too).

8/22/2006 10:47:00 AM  
Blogger Annoy Mouse said...

I concur Nathan,
They say keep your friends close and your enemies closer. The UN is useful in that it is a forum for all nations and tongues to be chronicled and their official points of view registered for the world to see. If it weren’t for the UN we’d have to rely on the media for an information exchange between nations. Besides, the UN has been making fools of themselves and if we have no allies who can see through the theater of lies then tough. A US pull out would create a vacuum that would be gladly filled by Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran.

8/22/2006 10:55:00 AM  
Blogger buddy larsen said...

Bolton himself said (a few weeks ago in an interview query about 'frustration with the UN') that his main job is to prevent what would happen if he wasn't doing what he does there.

8/22/2006 11:06:00 AM  
Blogger desert rat said...

FOX News talking heads are all about Iran and it's leadership.

UN Sanctions on Iran will mirror, in effectiveness, 1559 & 1701.

The return to the status que in Lebanon and Iranian uranium enrichment both spoken of as "Unacceptable" by US.

Guess it's all about what the meaning of "is" really is.

8/22/2006 11:16:00 AM  
Blogger Mad Fiddler said...

I guess if anyone had any information about Fox news' Steve Centanni and the camera operator Olaf Wiig, someone would be linking.

The silence of the rest of the Mainstream Alleged News Media on this kidnapping reiterates that they are working FOR THE OTHER SIDE, and regard the intimidation, kidnapping, and brutalization of Fox personnel as either perfectly acceptable, or unworthy of their notice.

Contemptible fecal bits, every one of 'em.

8/22/2006 11:17:00 AM  
Blogger Annoy Mouse said...

I can’t watch the news because there isn’t any. Seems all the stations are talking about some alleged child molester and murderer. F’ the world I want to know more about a creep who is seeking attention. The world has stopped to exist…. News at eleven.

8/22/2006 11:29:00 AM  
Blogger Deuce ☂ said...

Maybe the French secretly want the Israelis to finish the job.

8/22/2006 11:40:00 AM  
Blogger Mad Fiddler said...

Dear Triton'sPolarTigger

I was only jes' messin' witcha.

Didn't mean to cause stinkface.

8/22/2006 11:41:00 AM  
Blogger Deuce ☂ said...

Could not happen to a nicer guy.

Last Updated: Tuesday, 22 August 2006, 14:44 GMT 15:44 UK

Pakistan atomic expert has cancer

The public will be kept informed of Dr Khan's condition. Disgraced Pakistani nuclear scientist, Abdul Qadeer Khan is suffering from prostate cancer, the government says.
He was diganosed following a routine medical check up in early August.

The scientist who confessed to leaking nuclear secrets to Libya, Iran and North Korea has been kept under virtual house arrest since 2004.

8/22/2006 11:47:00 AM  
Blogger Teresita said...

bobalharb wrote:

Teresita--you are smart, and I really like reading what you say, but how can you be a Taoist and a Social Darwinian at the same time?

Mastery of the world is achieved by letting things take their natural course. You can not master the world by changing the natural way. (Chapter 48).

I would debate you on this. There is a word--it's called compassion.

The 10,000 things take form and rise to activity, but I watch them fall back to their repose. When salmonberries flourish it is impossible to walk through them, but when they store their juices for winter and retreat the way becomes clear again.

Flourishing is not constant,

Retreating is not constant,

But flourishing and retreating are constant (Chapter 16).

8/22/2006 11:53:00 AM  
Blogger desert rat said...

circles and cycles
scenes that we've all seen before

8/22/2006 11:56:00 AM  
Blogger Teresita said...

habu_3 said:

no one knows the way of the Tao. if they say they do they don't

Only because those who know the way of Tao don't say they do.

8/22/2006 11:56:00 AM  
Blogger Teresita said...

peterboston said:

We all have fun with France's lack of military vigor but there is little doubt in my mind that the French government has a line across which the Islamists will not be allowed to cross. During the carbeque there were no incidents in the "French" districts in Paris. I don't think that was coincidental.

Ah, yes, but the very fact that there exist French Districts in France raises a red flag with me, as surely as having American Districts in America would be intolerable.

8/22/2006 12:05:00 PM  
Blogger Teresita said...

bobalharb said:

I think that they affirm there is a perfect human experience--which is the goal of life--that can not be talked about--because it is beyond language--but it is not Social Darwinism

Ironically, you seem to find the language of the label "Social Darwinism" to be the one unacceptable thing about the wordless experience that is the highest human calling. But if you are willing to accept it, any total laissez-faire system where humans do not try to plan economics or impose morality, but instead just go with the natural flow, is by default Social Darwinism.

8/22/2006 12:11:00 PM  
Blogger Mad Fiddler said...

In the 1930’s Europe recoiled from the prospect of another bloody war with Germany.

Their reluctance to stir the hornets’ nest is... well, understandable.

The vast gobbling slaughter of the battles of the Somme and Verdun were within living memory of the generation that had the responsibility of governing.

The aspect of Europe’s lethargy that is most disturbing to me is that they (like the U.S.) have enjoyed fully sixty years of prosperous safety. The distinction between Europe then and now is that in the present crisis, three generations of Europeans that have grown to voting age with their vacations, cultures, property, career options, investments, liesure, provided without any obvious cost to them, via the taxpayers, government, and military forces of the USA. Of course, we provided that to protect ourselves, ultimately.

But the unconsidered effect was to produce a population of selfish, spoiled children that have never paid their own way, and can comprehend neither the actual cost of maintaining their freedom, nor what the loss of that freedom to the Islamic fascists would mean to them.

8/22/2006 12:11:00 PM  
Blogger buddy larsen said...

Frank Church was an enemy of all that is good on the planet. But he thought he was just a super nice fella who thought the intelligence agencies were causing trouble. Wow, the width of that yawning chasm.

8/22/2006 12:26:00 PM  
Blogger Jamie Irons said...

Disgraced Pakistani nuclear scientist, Abdul Qadeer Khan...

Somewhere last week (and I no longer recall the source) I was reading that this supposed "scientist" was nothing of the kind, that he was a huckster who, apart from irresponsibly spreading nuclear technology to the most dangerous and irresponsible inhabitants of the planet, made no original scientific or technical contribution of any kind.

Does anyone here know more about this?

Jamie Irons

8/22/2006 12:28:00 PM  
Blogger buddy larsen said...

Dave h, Doug MacArthur had the plan already in place--23 nuclear strikes and then no more Communism and its military aggression, and no more nobody with nukes. It's what got him fired.

8/22/2006 12:35:00 PM  
Blogger buddy larsen said...

hey, i know that feeling...

8/22/2006 12:57:00 PM  
Blogger Teresita said...

dave h wrote:

Old HST failed, he should have stopped, French, Brits, Russkies and anyone else back in the day. Probably too late by 1947, he should have made that decision Sept 1945.

Do you remember that picture of "Give 'em Hell" Harry holding up the headline "DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN" ? That newspaper escaped from the parallel dimension where Truman took a weary country to war again in 1947 to keep the Rooshians from breaking our atomic monopoly.

8/22/2006 12:57:00 PM  
Blogger Mad Fiddler said...

Funny how some artist's early work holds up better than the later...

I still savor "Sittin' in the Back Seat of my Car..." . "Guess You Never Knew" , "Uncle Albert" and "Maybe I'm a Man..."

Pity for the tens of millions of iggerant ones who think McCartney didn't do anything before "Wings."

8/22/2006 01:09:00 PM  
Blogger Mad Fiddler said...

Dear Bobble-Harb (yeah, I know...)

The day my mom died from the lung cancer that finally got'er, my brother and I had sat at the foot of her bed, with the rest of the family gathered around, and we played every silly song we knew, interspersed with a few prayers. The one that got a rise from her was "The Cover of the Rollin' Stone"

“Well, we're Big Rock Singers.
We got Go-o-olden Fingers
and we're loved ever-where that we go...

We sing about beauty and we sing about Truth
For ten thousand dollars a show.

We got all kinda pills to give us all kinda thrills
But the thrill we’ll never know...
Is the thrill that’ll getcher when you get your picture
On the cover of the Rollin’ Stone!”


She fought the cancer for almost three years, two years longer than the medics expected. When I visited from the other side of the country, I would accompany her to the chemo-infusion center and play my fiddle. It always amazed me how the folks sitting around there, as miserable as they must have felt with the poisons dripping into their arms, would light up and grin when I played a few jigs and reels, or “Stars & Stripes Forever” or “Stardust.”

That sort of concert experience really made me feel like the lessons paid off.

8/22/2006 01:21:00 PM  
Blogger allen said...

Does the US need a larger military?

Corps can recall Marines to active duty
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/
20060822/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/
marines_call_up

When looking at the Army numbers, remember that the Army is has used tens of thousands of Air Force personnel to fill its vacancies.

Smaller brigades
Multiple tours
Cannibalization of USAF
Multiple involuntary extensions
Stop loss
Involuntary recalls

Does anyone hear see a pattern?

8/22/2006 01:28:00 PM  
Blogger Mad Fiddler said...

There have been a number of times when I’ve visited folks in hospital & played my fiddle for’em, that the nurses then dragged me around to play for other folks in various rooms elsewhere... Usually ICU, CCU, and suchlike. It’s been humbling to me to realize it has nothing whatsoever to do with any talent or skill I may have, and EVERYTHING to do with a willingness to spit in the eye of catastrophe and go ahead and have a little fun.

One time, I was brought in (during such an ad-hoc excursion) to the room where a family gathered around an ancient gentleman wearing an oxygen mask and gasping for life. They asked me to play, fer Pete’s sake, some Scottish “chewns”-- jigs, reels, strathspeys.

I nodded, and sawed out a few jolly bits...

The old man stirred, and pulled the mask from his face, and called out: “Get that DAMN FIDDLER AWAY FROM HERE!”

No, not really... he just stirred a little, and everyone gathered closer and touched him gently.

I know the music can’t undo the dying.

But it seems to be able to remind even those who are in their last hours or minutes, of some sort of joy and beauty that transcends.

8/22/2006 01:35:00 PM  
Blogger Mad Fiddler said...

Think it was the Dalai Lama who said, “The most important task we ever undertake in this life is to help someone else prepare for death.”

8/22/2006 01:38:00 PM  
Blogger Teresita said...

the mad fiddler wrote:

Think it was the Dalai Lama who said, “The most important task we ever undertake in this life is to help someone else prepare for death.”

Millions of people have died without preparation and they're no worse off for it!

8/22/2006 01:54:00 PM  
Blogger Mad Fiddler said...

Teresita, the Dalai Lama is on the phone, and boy, is he annoyed with YOU!

(Tee hee!)

8/22/2006 01:58:00 PM  
Blogger buddy larsen said...

LOL--the old man in the oxygen mask--

8/22/2006 02:04:00 PM  
Blogger PeterBoston said...

whit

I think it extraordinary that soldiers would go public with their criticism so close to the engagement. I guess that's the real meaning of citizen-soldier.

I wonder how much of the SNAFU is Olmert and his cabinet and how much is the IDF command. My guess is 98% Olmert and I hope I'm right because that's a lot easier to fix.

Olmert should resign and force new elections but the chances of that are probably slim.

8/22/2006 02:32:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Habu,
What is it about the Chewbacca Defense that's wrong?

8/22/2006 02:33:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Why is bobal always "going to bed?"
Almost time for a nooner, here, bobal.

8/22/2006 02:36:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

8/22/2006 02:40:00 PM  
Blogger snowonpine said...

The line that the French have decided shall not be crossed is probably made of slowly melting Brie.

8/22/2006 02:41:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

"I don't care if it rains or freezes, long as I got my Plastic Bobble-Harb right there on the dashboard of my car."

8/22/2006 02:41:00 PM  
Blogger allen said...

Air Force Times (28 Aug 2001)

“’Stifling command’ errors led to crash”: 2 airmen among 10 dead in helicopter collision

These two airmen, assigned to satellite communications, had NO 1) “night-time, over-water” training or 2) “crash training”.

Not to worry, says the Air Force report, it was “unlikely” they would have survived the crash.

“UNLIKELY”!!!!

That must be of immense comfort to the families.

“UNLIKELY”

That word sums up the quality of leadership of the current Air Force and Pentagon.

No harm, no foul.

There is no word as to whether the Air Force intends to inquire into the level of training of its thousands of members serving as Army troops.

Oh, the USMC punished three officers, including the squadron commander – no word on any punishment for the officer who assigned this untrained Airmen.

8/22/2006 02:43:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

You'll find plenty of liars here about early works holding up better, Fiddler.

8/22/2006 02:44:00 PM  
Blogger PeterBoston said...

Olmert claims that he approved every plan his Generals brought to him.

I suspect there's more than a little Newspeak in Olmert's remark.

8/22/2006 02:45:00 PM  
Blogger luc said...

Teresita said... 8/22/2006 01:54:38 PM

“Millions of people have died without preparation and they're no worse off for it!”

Being argumentative, How do you know? ;)

8/22/2006 02:56:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Hewitt is interviewing Gen Abizade now.

8/22/2006 03:13:00 PM  
Blogger Teresita said...

bobalharb said:

Teresita--that is really an aweful thing to say..

Well, as compensation, I changed my user profile to list my ethics as "Moral Naturalism" instead of "Social Darwinism" because I realize that Mr. Darwin has some negative baggage associated with his name. The reason I chose Social Darwinism in the first place is that Moral Naturalism per se isn't a well-developed stream of thought (in fact, I'm the one who wrote the Wikipedia article for it, and it was ripped to shreds by someone). And Moral Naturalism itself is only an approximation to what I really have in mind, which is Equilibrium Morality. Very Tao.

8/22/2006 03:13:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

http://www2.krla870.com/listen/

8/22/2006 03:14:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

I'm ashamed of you, Teresita!
Wussing Out like that.
Most of Darwin's Baggage is undeserved.

8/22/2006 03:15:00 PM  
Blogger PeterBoston said...

The Brits will certainly appreciate the BBC's political correctness as they switch channels to see the news about the 1,600 suspected jihadis in their midst.

8/22/2006 03:16:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

(of course Social Darwinism is something else-I just don't think you should give bobal any slack.)

8/22/2006 03:17:00 PM  
Blogger buddy larsen said...

Equal-Librium Morality, that's 4 me!

8/22/2006 03:18:00 PM  
Blogger luc said...

My assessment of the IDF situation in my /8/22/2006 06:58:29 AM was cheerful compared to what is posted now at http://www.yonitheblogger.com. :(

8/22/2006 03:20:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Give me Librium or give me Meth!

8/22/2006 03:25:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Meuth, you feuhl! MEUTH!

8/22/2006 03:26:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

luc,
I can't bear to read the stuff about Olmert.

8/22/2006 03:28:00 PM  
Blogger buddy larsen said...

Olmert Goner
had a war
ee-yi-ee-yi-o

8/22/2006 03:41:00 PM  
Blogger PeterBoston said...

At least Olmert answered the question of what happens if you have a war and nobody from your side shows up.

Olmert is scary because it gives us a look at how quickly things can go bad when you have an unwarrior at the top of the pecking order.

8/22/2006 03:46:00 PM  
Blogger luc said...

whit said...
The World at the Abyss
This is spiraling out of control .

Is this the article you meant ?
Cricket: Pakistan threaten to skip one-dayer
If yes it is really a terribly serious situation! :)

8/22/2006 04:24:00 PM  
Blogger luc said...

Doug said...
luc,
I can't bear to read the stuff about Olmert.

8/22/2006 03:28:45 PM
I do not know if you can trust DebkaFile on this but is is worth a read:
Some Lebanon War Riddles Solved and Their Relevance to Moves on Syria in Jerusalem Explained

8/22/2006 04:26:00 PM  
Blogger Db2m said...

PeterBoston,

I was amazed how you were able to keep your kool last night when someone, absolutely without warrant, called you a nazi.

You must be a Berra good Yogi...

8/22/2006 04:28:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Yoni has a new post:
Amazing stuff going on.

8/22/2006 04:29:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

WTC Images Displayed

8/22/2006 04:29:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

'Rat had a warrant!
I Deputized him.

8/22/2006 04:31:00 PM  
Blogger buddy larsen said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

8/22/2006 04:32:00 PM  
Blogger Db2m said...

Doug be dissin' my pun again, by bouncin' off it.

Must be a case of punnus envy...

8/22/2006 04:37:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Don't look back at this Pillar of Puns that is the BC.

8/22/2006 04:49:00 PM  
Blogger allen said...

Talking of Social Darwinism, the House of Representatives of the United States has voted to permit overseas sales of the F-22, part of the 2007 Defense appropriations bill. The operative amendment was introduced by Texan, Kay Granger. Granger is a Republican, whose district includes a Lockheed Martin plant.

The cost of development of the F-22 has been twenty plus years and more than $70 billion, with the rationale that it would give the US an almost insurmountable combat edge.

Just thought you would like to know.

Air Force Times (28 August 2001)

8/22/2006 04:55:00 PM  
Blogger Jamie Irons said...

Doug (03:26:37):

Meuth, you feuhl! MEUTH!

I wouldn't think it would be the usual procedure for the master of the house to deal with the meuths.

Do you have a minkey license?


Jamie Irons

8/22/2006 04:59:00 PM  
Blogger allen said...

Senior Airman Ted Hestilow, recently returned from Iraq, served as part of a six man EOD team assigned to the Army. For exceptional service one day in Iraq, the Army awarded his three man group the Army Combat Action Badge. Of course, the Air Force will not permit his team members or him to wear the Badge.

Yeah, these guys take the guts out of explosive ordinance, fight gun battles with terrorists coming and going, and are killed and injured by IEDs (just like any grunt) while serving with the United States Army; nevertheless, the Pentagon peacocks cannot see the way to permitting them the recognition the Army believes they deserve.

Don’t know how this fits with Social Darwinism, but possibly you might want to know.

Air Force Times (28 August 2001)


luc,

The IDF needs a sympathetic service specific publication like the Air Force Times.

8/22/2006 05:13:00 PM  
Blogger Db2m said...

Allen said,

"The cost of development of the F-22 has been twenty plus years and more than $70 billion"

******

20 plus years to develop? No wonder many are saying it's already obsolete. Hate to see us spreading it willy nilly, though.

Very un-Tao.

8/22/2006 05:15:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

My minkey doz nat need a license, 'e ez an independent contractor:
Do you think I would break the leu?

8/22/2006 05:19:00 PM  
Blogger Db2m said...

Chris said,

"Six months from now, when the war starts back up again, you will see a far different IDF."

******

I remember watching Douglas Edwards in 1957 when he broadcast news of Russia launching & successfully orbiting Sputnik.

Boy, was that ever a bucket of ice water dumped on us from behind. For a while, we really got to crackin' in this country, in the public schools.

The IDF and Israel got their bucket of ice, and it will be different next time.

In fact, one day (I have no idea when) it will take 7 months to bury the dead bad guys (Ezekiel 39).

8/22/2006 05:35:00 PM  
Blogger Jamie Irons said...

Doug,

Yes, I think you are a leu-brekker.

You have sheuwn yourself to be weun on this very bleugue.

Jamie Irons

8/22/2006 05:35:00 PM  
Blogger Jamie Irons said...

Doug,

I am referring of course to Wretchard's "regle des deux postes maximum..."

A leu which I never, ever brekk.


Jamie Irons

8/22/2006 05:37:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

I caint be methin around forever:
Maybe Tater can take over.

8/22/2006 05:39:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Is the Dolly Lama bin Laden's pet goat?

8/22/2006 05:42:00 PM  
Blogger Db2m said...

Habu the Third said,

"Are we being too hard on willy nilly?"

Back in the 70's, without the good old internet to both start and squelch rumors, the office got excited about some way you could get surplus jeeps for $50, and a lot of folks, including some of the bosses, got sucked up in the excitement.

But it turned out to be a Willys Nillys hoax!

8/22/2006 05:43:00 PM  
Blogger Teresita said...

allen said:

The cost of development of the F-22 has been twenty plus years and more than $70 billion, with the rationale that it would give the US an almost insurmountable combat edge.

What do you mean almost? If it can be surmounted by another country, I'd like to know who's got deeper pockets than we'uns. If it can be surmounted for less than $70 gigabux, I'd like to do that instead.

8/22/2006 05:49:00 PM  
Blogger Brother D-Day said...

Iran agrees to talk = HUDNA.

8/22/2006 05:56:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Trish always leaves us guessin.
---
Jamie's Fast Food.

8/22/2006 05:57:00 PM  
Blogger buddy larsen said...

In the interests of precision: "willy-nilly" comes from "will" and "nill" and means "will-or-won't". As in, if you do something willy-nilly, you do it not knowing if you really want to do it or not.

8/22/2006 06:05:00 PM  
Blogger allen said...

teresita,

re: almost insurmountable

Because nothing is insurmountable other than some egos on this site.

8/22/2006 06:08:00 PM  
Blogger allen said...

Sorry, I meant insufferable.

By the by, teresita, I have posted four times on this thread, covering a number of issues dealing with the life and death of American kids. Got anything substantive to add?

8/22/2006 06:12:00 PM  
Blogger PeterBoston said...

trish

You can't leave this one open ended. Why will HB and/or Syria not engage Israel?

8/22/2006 06:14:00 PM  
Blogger buddy larsen said...

Habu:
Ooee, Gooee,
I loves me breakfast cereal,
but it makes me teeth bacterial-- ?

8/22/2006 06:27:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

From a romantic scene in the Warm Bog
To Buddy's Bacterial Soup in 2 posts.
Jeesh.

8/22/2006 06:35:00 PM  
Blogger buddy larsen said...

I wuz merely responding to a formal request. My motto service--the motto of which is "Always have A Motto"--could do no less.

8/22/2006 06:40:00 PM  
Blogger sam said...

South Africa donates R1.2 million in humanitarian aid to Lebanon:

Speaking to journalists in Pretoria today, Foreign Affairs Deputy Minister Aziz Pahad said South African Aid agencies had added to government's contribution by donating 100 tons of food to Lebannon on Monday.

"The 1701 Resolution must be in place urgently...the longer it delays it would trigger another conflict," he warned.

The South African government on Monday urged the United Nations deploy its peacekeeping force to ensure compliance with the resolution in the region.

South Africa Donates

8/22/2006 06:49:00 PM  
Blogger sam said...

Letter from London:

Milling about London, though, you get a sense of normalcy. The British still have that "stiff upper lip" thing, and while there was a threat of unimaginable destruction--security alerts remain at the unprecedented "critical" level--nothing has actually happened, not yet anyway.

I just saw on Sky Television an interview with a father and daughter at Heathrow. The pair missed their first flight but find themselves ready now for their trip to Canada and complaining that a new electronic video game they bought for the flight cannot be brought on board.

Letter from London

8/22/2006 07:13:00 PM  
Blogger allen said...

db2m; 5:35 PM

re: (Ezekiel 39)

I'm partial to Zechariah 8:23
Tanakh
The Jewish Publication Society

8/22/2006 07:25:00 PM  
Blogger Jamie Irons said...

I have a question for P-Tater.

It was prompted by thinking about what might ensue after the bog scene he just described.

I remember, as a kid, seeing pictures -- they may really have been just drawings, or even cartoons -- of mama possums carrying baby possums suspended from their (the mamas') tails, with mama's tail folded up forward over her back, and the little baby possums hanging by their tails from her tail.

Do possums actually do this?

Jamie Irons

Doug, I wouldn't call it fast food; one often has to drink a martini and a glass of wine before everything reaches the table.

But it is worth waiting for. Greg Cole, among others, has made life definitely worth living here...

8/22/2006 07:25:00 PM  
Blogger Jamie Irons said...

Doug et alia,

Also from Opinion Journal, did everyone see this from the incomparable Roger Scruton, "Beware Of A Religion Without Irony"?


Jamie Irons

8/22/2006 07:32:00 PM  
Blogger Jamie Irons said...

Habu,

Much obliged.

Jamie Irons

8/22/2006 07:37:00 PM  
Blogger Jamie Irons said...

Trish,

For what they may be worth, both via Instapundit:

Iraqpundit says Hezbullah didn't win"


Aziz Poonawalla says Israel didn't lose



Jamie Irons

8/22/2006 07:44:00 PM  
Blogger Teresita said...

trish said:

Because Hezballah wasn't beaten, Peter, Iran got what it wanted. Er, what it paid for.

3970 rockets fired in 33 days.

44 Israeli civilians killed (about the same as two Jerusalem pizza parlor bombings)

90 rockets per dead Jew.

I think Iran wants their money back.

8/22/2006 07:44:00 PM  
Blogger buddy larsen said...

Of matters offal,
best not be know-ful.

8/22/2006 07:59:00 PM  
Blogger Steve Poling said...

What exactly would happen if Israel invaded Syria? It's not as if the Star of David has never flown over Damascus before. If the hardware works as well as we're led to believe, it'd be a blitzkreig. That would last a few weeks.

The Israelis won't worry about nation-building. So they wouldn't plan on a permanent occupation. They could give the place to the House of Saud. There'd be an Iraq/Hezbolla style insurgency in the meantime, but how would the insurgents' logistics work? If we really believe the bad apple is Iran, then flatten Bagdad and hand the broken pieces to whoever hates Persians most.

8/22/2006 07:59:00 PM  
Blogger Jamie Irons said...

Rufus,

You said it.

Without irony (well, maybe with just a soupçon!), I think I can say that irony is the sine qua non!


Jamie Irons

8/22/2006 08:06:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

I always appreciate a conservative approach!

8/22/2006 08:06:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

(for Steve Poling)

8/22/2006 08:06:00 PM  
Blogger buddy larsen said...

I hab no manners.
Habu?

8/22/2006 08:08:00 PM  
Blogger buddy larsen said...

The Scruton piece has a great piece of imagery -- in the closing, wherein humor finally breaks through, and the mad mullahs have to laugh at a joke.

8/22/2006 08:11:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

07:32:29 Jamie just likes to see his name in the Journal.

8/22/2006 08:12:00 PM  
Blogger sam said...

Iran urges 'serious' nuclear negotiations:

It turned away International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors from an underground site meant to shelter its uranium enrichment program from attack, and its top leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, declared that Tehran will continue to pursue its nuclear activities.

Iran has rejected the resolution passed by the council last month as "illegal," saying a compromise can only emerge from talks.

Iran Urges Negotiations

8/22/2006 08:12:00 PM  
Blogger Teresita said...

steve poling said:

What exactly would happen if Israel invaded Syria? It's not as if the Star of David has never flown over Damascus before

If Israel invaded Syria without provocation, Egypt and Jordan would tear up their peace treaties and mobilize, you'd get another classic Arab-Israeli War ala 1973, but this time with the wide load out-of-shape reservists Israel has, the millions of Palestinians in Judea and Samaria ready to rise up, the waffling "leadership" of Olmert, and the pussyfooting around Israel would have to do to avoid having their attempts to not be driven into the sea called "disproportionate" or "war crimes" on the AP wire, the Arabs would win. Then Israel executes the Masada option and takes out all Arab capitals with special weapons.

If Syria provokes Israel first, then Egypt and Jordan stay on the sidelines until Israel knocks Bashar Assad's military forces down a few pegs, but if Israel enters Damascus they rip up the peace treaty, etc...see above.

8/22/2006 08:19:00 PM  
Blogger desert rat said...

It must be asked, if the Israeli did so well, why are the IDF Reservists are so upset?
Why the need for a Inquiry Commission?
Why do so many posters here believe Mr Olnert's days as PM to be numbered?

Fact is that Teresita is right, the HB still present the same threat that they did not present before the Israeli invaded Lebanon.

Not militarily signifigant.
The Lebanonese invasion was a POLITICAL action much more so than a Military one.
The winners and losers are also POLITICAL.

8/22/2006 08:24:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

What ethnicity is Possumtater?

8/22/2006 08:35:00 PM  
Blogger Jamie Irons said...

What "ethnicity" be P-Tater?


'Murc'n Suthr'n

Jamie Irons

8/22/2006 08:40:00 PM  
Blogger Teresita said...

habu_3 said:

There once was a girl named Trish
Who was offered a genuine sorry

But she tarried and abused,
the sorry she could have used

and now they just call her Trish-Trash


I wonder how genuine the sorry really was, if on the same thread that it was offered and refused the one who offered it starts making schoolyard style verse.

8/22/2006 08:48:00 PM  
Blogger sam said...

Mutiny as passengers refuse to fly until Asians are removed:

British holidaymakers staged an unprecedented mutiny - refusing to allow their flight to take off until two men they feared were terrorists were forcibly removed.

Soon afterwards, the aircraft was cleared while police did a thorough security sweep. Nothing was found and the plane took off - three hours late and without the two men on board.

Mutiny by Passengers

8/22/2006 08:50:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

The al-Harbs and McCoys.

8/22/2006 08:55:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

"feeling, oneself in the other, at last.... "
---
bobal's been watching too much of that Karr Coverage on CNN.

8/22/2006 08:58:00 PM  
Blogger Teresita said...

bobalharb said:
Jim lays that he thinks the stars was laid by the moon..which is really beautiful, and mythological thinking.


"We used to watch the stars that fell, too, and see them streak down. Jim allowed they’d got spoiled and was hove out of the nest."

8/22/2006 09:01:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

08:50:37 PM Sam: I saw that days ago, since then it's been BURIED by the MSM:
They don't want us to start thinking we can take our own destiny into our hands.
...or even thinking.
"Passenger Profiling" of fellow passengers.
Powerful.

8/22/2006 09:02:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

The Sheeple Chime in:
---
What knee-jerk ignorance!
- Bernie, Canada
---
What a disgrace.
- Tom, London
--

What next?
Not letting Asian people board buses or even worse segregating them just like in America until recently.
We must tackle the root causes of ignorance and not judge a book by its cover.
As a British Muslim I feel less and less part of Britain because of the media and government campaign that lumps the trouble makers and law abiding Muslims in one basket.
boo hoo hoo

8/22/2006 09:06:00 PM  
Blogger allen said...

teresita,

re: “Got anything substantive to add?”

Wretchard began this with reference to the Franco-American UN Resolution 1701. If it is as bad as reported, across the board, then, why is the US up to its eyeballs in the abomination?

Post #1: grossly undersized force for the present task set, much less global mission

abusive policies that essentially shanghai troops

Post #2: poorly or untrained USAF personnel, by the thousands, attached to combat
missions

Post #3: Republican pork-barrel politics that may endanger the lives of American
servicemen

Post #4: unconscionable disrespect to service members serving in harm's way

I asked you, “Got anything substantive to add?”

To be fair, you are not alone.

The Belmont Club IS Wretchard, and Wretchard IS the Belmont Club. Because of the identity, I will continue to read his excellent dissertations.

8/22/2006 09:06:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Don't answer that last question at 09:03:00 PM, Teresita!
Please.

8/22/2006 09:08:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Allen,
The Rumsfeld Doctrine:
A Small Enough Force to be sure we won't win.

8/22/2006 09:12:00 PM  
Blogger SarahWeddington said...

I notice that Sheik Sayid Hassan Nasrallah has yet to appear in public more than a week after the cease fire. It's a funny victory where the victorious commander remains in hiding 8 dyas after the fighting stops. I wonder what Hassan is afraid of?

8/22/2006 09:15:00 PM  
Blogger sam said...

Doug,

I didn't know about the '30 minutes left to live' comment. Scary. Passenger profiling by passengers. Yes, it's been going on for some time now. My boss flew to Malaysia for work and when he got back he told us this story about a man sitting near him on the plane acting strange. My boss said he thought to himself, 'I'm just going to keep an eye on this guy.' He watched him all the way to Kuala Lumpur.

8/22/2006 09:15:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Speaking of night, bobal, you still have not accounted for your odd times of "going to bed."

8/22/2006 09:26:00 PM  
Blogger allen said...

bobalharb,

re: "the seeing, and feeling, oneself in the other, at last...."

The incomparable Adam Smith hit upon precisely the same idea in his Theory of Moral Sentiments. He believed that one of the primary characteristics of H. sapiens, setting the species apart from all others, was the ability to comperhend empathy.

Not only are the Islamists devoid of irony, they are incapable of empathy. Perhaps, like Neanderthal, they are an incompatible sub-species.

Irony – empathy: I await the post that informs me that one is the derivative of the other.

8/22/2006 09:34:00 PM  
Blogger sam said...

The Long Small War: Indigenous Forces for Counterinsurgency:

The United States and its partners are prosecuting a protracted war against insurgents and terrorists who are animated by an ideology stemming from a radical fundamentalist interpretation of Islam. As of early 2006, the American national security bureaucracy began to use the appellation the “long war” in place of the Global War on Terrorism.

The American Army in the Philippine War

The Philippine War lasted from 1899 to 1902, and during this counterinsurgency the US military learned how to employ indigenous scouts and paramilitary forces to increase and sustain decentralized patrolling. Since the American forces were seriously undermanned, at first they relied on local Filipino help for logistics, then as police and scouts, and ultimately as armed units.

The French Experience in Indochina

French forces fought two consecutive wars in Indochina and Algeria that witnessed the employment of indigenous forces in the conduct of counterinsurgency operations. In their war in Algeria, the French adopted some effective methods within the military sphere, but they failed to link their military methods to the political exigencies of that war.

Long Small War

8/22/2006 09:35:00 PM  
Blogger SarahWeddington said...

And all those bemoaning this as the end of IDF invinciblity and the like have obviously not been paying attention.

1973 marked the definitive end of IDF invincibility and in fact, the IDF has not fought a real war since Oct 22, 1973. Since then, Israel has returned the Sinai, Failed to wipe out the PLO, brought the PLO back from the dead in Tunis to the strategic debacle that was Oslo, failed to wipe out the Hamas or PIJ, failed to decisively deal with two Intifadas, withdrawn frpm Lebanon, withdrawn from Gaza, planned thw withdrawl from the West Bank and Jerusalem, etc...

The myth of invincibility died long ago and no one seriously believes it, except the Arabs who use it for propoganda purposes.

Hezbollah and the Arabs can claim victory but the true fact is that every day the Blue and White Flag flies under the skies of Jerusalem and Tel Aviv is another day of victory for Israel and another day of defeat for the Arab and Muslim forces that have sworn themselves to Israel's destruction since May 14, 1948.

The fact that Israel is still here is a huge defeat for Nasrallah, Khameini, and Ahmadinejad. And it will be an even bigger defeat when they breathe their last, realizing before they die taht their life's mission went unaccomplished.

This was clearly an IDF that was out of shape and inexperienced. One that rested on its laurels. The Lebanon War of 1982, with an invasion force of 80,000, rather than the 450,000 that fought in 1973 and the 275,000 that fought in 1967 counts as a quasi war.

The Lebanon War of 2006, with its 30,000 strong force diddling around the border and doing small, battalion size incursions for more than a fortnight doesn't count as anything.

That said, even in this weakend state, the IAF took out more than 90% of Hezbollah's long range arsenal, killed or wounded more than 35% of its front line force, destroyed a large number of its fortifications and installations along the border, and once unleashed somewhat the last 24 hours, showed that had they gone in in force from the beginning with at least the 80,000 that rocked Lebanon in 1982, Hezbollah would have been pushed back to the Awali, driven in to the Bekaa Valley, and had more than 65% casualties, not 35%.

This is merely an interlude. However, it did enable the IDF to learn some valuable lessons that will serve it well in the future

8/22/2006 09:36:00 PM  
Blogger desert rat said...

Mr Chavez is buying Chinese tankers, any bets on whether they can transit the Canal?

Chinese engineers will be in Venezuela, running the new drilling rigs and building a fiber optic network to go with the new Bolivar satellite.

"Chavez Says China Will Expand Its Cooperation in Oil Exploration" from the AP wire.

Right on schedule.

8/22/2006 09:40:00 PM  
Blogger allen said...

sarahw,weddington,

You may recall that as early as day 2 of the incursion, I predicted that Dr. Rice would preside over an unsatisfactory cease-fire. She was not as effective as predicted; it took nearly a month, rather than 10 days.

Vividly, I recall your dire prognostications, as well as the calls for you to medicate, kill yourself, and otherwise vanish from this site. Your unapologetic detractors have fallen silent.

You have done well!

A week ago, more or less, I raised the question of the condition of the deep, extensive bunker complexes built for Hezbollah. It was then my opinion that they had been left intact. Your post seems to suggest otherwise. Please, advise.

8/22/2006 09:59:00 PM  
Blogger sam said...

Rufus,

re: Iraq

Someone here once said long ago (might have been Verc) that we're eye deep in the data right now. That's a great visual for me.

8/22/2006 10:00:00 PM  
Blogger sam said...

It's actually not that expensive either 4.06% of GDP. If that's one hand tied behind the back then fighting with both hands would be 8.12%. We're in good shape.

8/22/2006 10:08:00 PM  
Blogger allen said...

rufus,

re: Iraq only

1. I have no idea how it's going to work out.

2. Neither does anyone else.

There have been hundreds of submissions posted here claiming that there was a PLAN, that all that was needed was faith in the President and patience. Good people have been mercilously ridiculed and verbally abused for suggesting, without malice, otherwise.

Is it now safe to say that there is no grand strategy for victory in Iraq? May we, at long last, consider options other than the status quo. Could the President bear some measure of blame?

8/22/2006 10:09:00 PM  
Blogger Deuce ☂ said...

This is being reported on Deutsche Welle. The last line is very interesting...""We consider it a step forward in our quest to deny Iran a nuclear weapons capability," said US Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Nicholas Burns. "We are very satisfied."

World Powers Agree on Deal, Wait on Iran

The world's top diplomats are hoping for a resolution

After agreeing to a landmark package intended to lure Iran to cease its nuclear activities, key world powers are waiting to see what the Islamic nation has to say.

The five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany are giving Iran weeks to respond to the "carrot," a diplomatic initiative agreed to on Thursday by the US, China, Russia, France, Britain and Germany, diplomats said.

And if they reject the terms and continue their nuclear program, the major powers agreed to take "measures with teeth," the diplomat added. Officials declined to specify measures or label them sanctions. But they are thought to include a range of trade, security and technology incentives as well as the threat of unspecified penalties.

"We consider it a step forward in our quest to deny Iran a nuclear weapons capability," said US Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Nicholas Burns. "We are very satisfied."

8/22/2006 10:16:00 PM  
Blogger desert rat said...

Which of Hugo's allies is going to supply the nuclear power plant he'll be wanting to build?

China, Russia or Iran?
My bet is they ink a deal in Havana at the October summit.
Hugo and Abracadaba,
both fronting for the KGB

8/22/2006 10:24:00 PM  
Blogger desert rat said...

Because the Mohammedans a just part of the problem

8/22/2006 10:25:00 PM  
Blogger Deuce ☂ said...

Allen said it well:
"There have been hundreds of submissions posted here claiming that there was a PLAN, that all that was needed was faith in the President and patience. Good people have been mercilously ridiculed and verbally abused for suggesting, without malice, otherwise.

Is it now safe to say that there is no grand strategy for victory in Iraq? May we, at long last, consider options other than the status quo. Could the President bear some measure of blame?"

The plan is hope, steeped in denial. My hope is that this administration does no more damage as it attempts to rescue its legacy. That may be steeped in my denial about just how hollow this administartion really is.

8/22/2006 10:26:00 PM  
Blogger sam said...

US Army Corps of Engineers Energy Trends:

The following steps by the national government are recommended to help the Army
meet its energy challenges:

• Increase National Supplies and Release Capacity
- Recognize and promote energy efficiency as the cheapest, fastest, cleanest
source of new energy.

• Modernize National Infrastructure
- Support modernizing and expanding the electricity grid.

• Diversify and Enhance Domestic Sources
- Invest in R&D in clean coal technologies, renewable technologies, carbon
sequestration, breeder reactors, and closing the nuclear fuel cycle.

Energy Trends

8/22/2006 10:26:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Allen 10:09:47 PM,
Absolutely Not!
And with 43% of Californians now speaking a language other than English at home, soon no one will even know what went on, so how to blame?.
(as if that fertility gap refered to here will make up for the immigration/fertility of the new low education, low wage, non-english speaking "New Americans!"
Democrat Voter Uber Alles!)
The Meta Uber Plan to supersede all others?

8/22/2006 10:31:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

2164th, doesn't steeping hope in DeNile give hope a bad taste?

8/22/2006 10:32:00 PM  
Blogger Deuce ☂ said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

8/22/2006 10:37:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

"We are very satisfied."
Who is "we" Nicholas?
(I read bad things about him when Condi came in and left him in place)

8/22/2006 10:37:00 PM  
Blogger Deuce ☂ said...

DR,

No one is listening about what the Chinese are doing throughout Latin America. Chile has just signed a stunning free trade agreement with China. Both ends of the Canal have Chinese industrial parks. Russia sells the Chinese weapons, the Chinese reverse engineer and perfect them with stolen US technology, manufacture them and sell them to our enemies. The trade between Latin America and China will encourage the Chinese to develop a blue water navy, which everyone scoffs at. All this financed with American dollars gained by an absurd trade policy. this will have a much more profound affect on America than the war in Iraq. US Latin American Policy is about as incompetent and incoherent as anything else the Bush Administration has done.

8/22/2006 10:39:00 PM  
Blogger sam said...

Abracadabra:

Born in the village of Arādān near Garmsar, his family moved to Tehran when he was one year old. In 1976, he took Iran's national university entrance exams to gain admission into Iran's top universities.

His test score ranked him 132nd among over 400,000 participants that year,[3] thus landing him at the prestigious Iran University of Science and Technology (IUST) as an undergraduate student of civil engineering. He continued his studies in the same university, entering the Master of Science program for civil engineering in 1984, the year he joined the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (see below), and in 1987 received his Ph.D. in traffic and transportation engineering and planning.

Abracadabra

8/22/2006 10:42:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Someone I respect, on the ground in Iraq, thought it was foolish to pull men out of Mosul to send to Baghdad.
More whack a mole, after all that blood and treasure spent up there:
Including that of the Lt Col at the hands of the releasee.

8/22/2006 10:43:00 PM  
Blogger SarahWeddington said...

Allen,

Tony Kordesman at CSIS did a 25 page study taht had a number of good points and info on the accomplishemnts of the IDF.

As for their deep bunkers, I'm skeptical. Remember in Afghanistan how Tora Bora and the Shah i Kot and White Mountains had caves galore. Literally hotels with elevators and hospitals and there were all these diagrams of how extensive and elaborate they were?

There were no such things.

They were simply caves.

Hezbollah had crowed for years that not one Jew would ever cross the border again and that any Jew who dared to would be drowned in blood.

Well, so much for that.

Who knows what opportunities Israel took to gather intel in S. Lebanon? They had de jure air superiority over it for more than amonth. They flew well over 1500 recon flights. I'm sure they learned a great deal.

They flew 15000+ sorties, 6000+ combat sorties, 2000+ chopper sorties, and all they lost was that one chopper that was hit on the ground. So much for Hexbollah's and by extension Iran and Syria's vaunted air defenses.

Again, I remind you that Hassan Nasrallah is still in hiding.

Hezbollah's value to Iran as a deterrent is pretty much gone. It was a premature escalation if you will.

Hassan Nasrallah saved Israel in a way that even Israel itself couldn't. He singlehandedly ended Ehud Olmert and Kadima's politicial viablity and saved Jerusalem and the West Bank. Shukran Sayid Nasrallah. Much like Arafat and Hamas killed the peace now guys in 96, Nasrallah killed them in 2006. The end of what would have been a strategic disaster greater than either the Lebanon or Gaza surrenders is soley due to Sheikh Nasrallah and Ali Khamenini. Again, Shukran.

An IDF ground force that wsa clearly withering on the vine has gotten a much needed wakeup call and I have no doubt it will be ready the next time the call is made.

I bet Assad in Syria will rue the day his buddy Hassan provided that wake up call and robbed him of the shot he had to take on the slumbering Giant.

The Palestinians are still wasting away in poverty and despair, entering their 59th year of failing to avenge the Nakhba and kill the Yahud.

The Syrians are entering their 34th year since failing miserably to recover the Golan. They are surrounded by the US, Israel and a Turkey who can cut off their water in seconds.

Ahmadinejad proclaims his world without zionism, but the reality is that the "zionist entity" will be here long after he and Khameini are gone.

Let's see where things are this time next year and re assess the situation.

8/22/2006 10:46:00 PM  
Blogger allen said...

sam,

re: GDP

I take your point. Respectfully, however, I must make the observation that there is a human factor in the equation that seems to get too little attention, even on this site.

There is a young captain known to me, serving with an armored brigade. He has been in the sandpit twice. He has two small children, one each born per tour. He has recently received word to get his house in order; a third tour is coming. This young man is NOT exceptional.

If all is well: why is the Marine Corps recalling severed troops; why is the Army doing stop loss; why is the Air Force being cannibalized to man unfilled Army slots, utilizing, ad hoc, poorly trained or untrained personnel?

At this writing, the Armed Forces of the United States can handle one problem at a time. Given the instances of manpower deficiencies cited, leadership is not doing a very good job of that. Consequently, unless, you are one of those who think air power is war’s sine qua non, a conventional war with Iran cannot happen, ceteris paribus. Which is not to say it should not happen; because, strategically that is most certainly the case.

So, despite the sanguine numbers you quote, all is not well. Undoubtedly, you know Twain’s opinion of statistics.

8/22/2006 10:48:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

So China will do the economic development that we should have done, as China continues to reap the profits from our having not done it.
Super.
In fact the profits can fund the development, in addition to their military.
Now THAT's a Plan!

8/22/2006 10:48:00 PM  
Blogger Deuce ☂ said...

Because Chile has a complimentary economy with China. China produces cheap manufacturing goods and buys vast amount of raw materials. You base a sound trade policy in both sides having complimentary conditions. The Chinese will not take Chilean lumber for free. The Chinese take US terchnology for free, disregard US patents and manufacture the products, ship them on subsidized transport to the US.

8/22/2006 10:55:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Bobal,
I achieve all the same results, sleep-wise, by ignoring all the basics of sleep hygiene.
(worked the few times I tried.)
A little discipline would go a long way for me.
Hope yours is nothing serious.

8/22/2006 11:02:00 PM  

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