Combat in the Middle East
Pajamas has a roundup of the dramatic events in Lebanon and Gaza. Israel is in combat against Hezbollah and Hamas. How far will it go? What are the strategic objectives? Who is in fact fighting who on behalf of whom? The Pajamas site is being updated 24x7 ...
posted by wretchardthecat at 7/12/2006 07:22:00 PM
103 Comments:
I've got to say, this is where network cable should shine -- but it doesn't (or won't).
I wonder. Did Hezbollah (and Syria, and Iran) miscalculate, or is this what they want?
My guess is they miscalculated. Hezbollah apparently is saying "all we want is an exchange of prisoners" over and over again like a broken record. They had it all calculated to a nicety. But there is an irrational element to war. And in this case that irratinality works on every side. Israel may think it is in control; Syria may think it is in control; the Mullahs, bless their bears, think they can see the future. But nobody is in control, except to a limited degree.
Aristides,
I wonder. Did Hezbollah (and Syria, and Iran) miscalculate, or is this what they want?
In my own option the answer is both.
For their side (barbarism) to win they have to escalate the conflict.
But, they will incite a Total War soon enough. A war which they will lose in a dramatic fashion. A catastrophic fashion.
But they have no other opportunity for the win...
You know, Austin Bay makes an excellent point.
Note: Sometimes the greatest part of soft power is when and if you'll remain silent. Perhaps Iran is learning this lesson.
There is far less wailing and gnashing of teeth from the civilized parts of the world nowadays, eh...
In that sense we are talking about a huge micalculation.
For Hamas to grab a a Israeli soldier in retaliation for an Israeli retailation for the rockets they are lobbing into Israel was nuts.
For Hezbolah to grab a couple of Israeli soliders for no obvious reason other than "the other kids are doing it" was nuts squared.
Maybe Nevil Chamberlain works for Hamas and Hezbolah now and it was they that were convinced that there was Peace in Our Time - so no one would bother them for carrying on their circa 1986 style antics.
Wow, should have refreshed the page.
Austin Bay may have donned his YearlyKOS tinfoil hat - but the world is now a weird place.
And, his commentary on the rather 'subdued' response by the Europeans is spot on...
Don't know about Egypt, Jordan, etc. preemptively accepting the strike - but who knows. If they back terror they will end up with terrorists. That is now proven beyond a doubt.
My guess is they miscalculated.
I agree. My guess is that they thought they would 1) buy a discreet Israeli atrocity, and not an all out invasion, and/or 2) underscore the "prisoner grievance", which is potent material -- while avoiding the stigma of literal terrorism (the rejection of which, by a large part of Islamdom, is a major (idea) victory in the War on Terror). Either or both 1 and 2 could then be used as propaganda to rally support for the regimes.
The Lebanese Bloggers comments section was an interesting read.
Between Lebanonese wanting Israel to drive to Damascus and end the nightmare, Israelis disgusted with "moderate" Lebanese for their inaction and "westerners" expressing disbelieve at the Lebanese fear of Hezbollah and the lack of action against Hezbollah.
Worries of the impact for the tourist season was high on some Lebanese concerns. Economic factors I assumed, others thought it a trivial worry, indicating fecklessness.
The Enemy has offered an opportunity, it is time for decisive action. Before another opportunity to end the problem with minimal losses, all around, is lost.
Their miscalculation is the fact that they are the duly elected government of Palestine. That they hold seats in the legitimately elected Lebanonese government.
A state can be fought by another state - legally...
Their miscalculation is that we are all tired of the same barbaric tactics we have witnessed for decades - and we accept the costs of directly challenging them. Americans are not soft whiny critters anymore - at least not all of us. Only Madelaine Albright and General Zinni will express shock and dismay over the conflict. Nowadays, I just want it over. And, I am rooting for Israel.
We know we must win or we will lose...
Erlanger suggests that this is a message from Iran to Israel saying: “If you want to hurt us, there are tools that we have and that we can use against you.”
The Iranians may not have miscalculated but it seems that all the terrorists downstream from them have.
IMO, they gambled that we would restrain Israel (did we even try?) because, in their thought process, we would not want this to cause problems with Iraq. They figured on a cheap victory, which would gain them prestige.
From Captain's Quarters:
The Israelis and the Egyptians have both said that the Palestinian chapter of Hamas has never controlled the Shalit abduction, but that the terrorists responsible took orders from Khaled Mashaal. Mashaal himself has taken responsibility for the operation by setting forth the demands under which Shalit would be released. Mashaal is no more than Bashar Assad's sock puppet, and neither Hamas nor Hezbollah would dare take action against Israel without coordination from the Assad regime.
But why? Why would they want to risk destabilizing the Hamas government, why would Hezbollah risk the same in the north?
Are we sure this is a miscalculation?
Is it possible that this is a designed prelude to something?
Aristides,
At this point I'm not sure it's a miscalculation. Or not a complete miscalculation. My sense is that they want things to escalate to such a degree that Israel fights back hard enough that Iran can say, "See, Israel is dangerous. Our security is threatened by this rogue state."
They may be a little surprised at Europe's silence up to this point, however.
On the recall of the Lebanese Ambassador after he expressed support for Hezbollah(ht LGF):
Officials in Beirut stressed that Abboud's view did not represent that of Lebanon, which is vehemently opposed to Hizbullah's actions on Israel's northern border.
That, my friends, is as good an example of the Hegemonic Dividend as you are ever likely to see.
Hezbollah has been isolated. Will Syria join them in the corner?
Or does Iran have a surprise for us all?
I think we should take it as given that our enemies know the current value of everything they are doing. However, the current value is always specific, tied to a particular context. The context here, and therefore our value scale, is five months ago until yesterday.
The plan was disseminated five months ago (at least), and was ordered a couple of days ago. Nothing in that amount of time seriously disrupted the value-calculation of our enemies. They went ahead with their plan. Why?
What were they thinking? Is it possible they got too used to the media rhythms of the post-911 world? Because from where I sit, the only value-adds from abducting a few soldiers from a sovereign, well-armed and cornered nation are propagandistic, or strategic. If strategic, then these regimes are really under-informed, or really ahead of the game. If you want my opinion, they went for propaganda.
And they lost.
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
pajamas has a good round up of blogs about this situation.
There is an interesting link to Haaretz. One of the Haaretz articles clearly states that Maschal is claiming to be the sole spokesman for the palestinians.
How he does that from the comfort of his Damascus office escapes me.
I wonder if we're not over analyzing this. To me the people who use terror will continue to use it as long as it works. The only way they can discover that it no longer works is when they use it in their normal manner and obtain a dramatically different result.
That, I believe is what happened here. To the guys in Hamas and Hizbullah this was just your basic mob family snatch. A kidnapping, some chest thumping then a deal gets done. They've been doing this for a long long time.
what I don't think they understood is how the landscape around them has changed.
I see a few factors: first the west tends to take statehood quite seriously. Hamas is the state and no one can deny that.
Next, the incessant assaults on civilization spawned by psychotic Islamists have worn out the patience of their reliable supporters. It's hard to countenance support for the arabs after the bombing in bombay. Enough is enough seems to be the message they are getting.
Finally, America's forward positioning in the ME changed the military dynamic. If the pros talk logistics, it a much more complex problem now.
One theory I've seen often is that Iran timed this to co incide with the G8. I've thought about that and I've concluded that this current situation cannot be spun to favor Iran. The fact that the white house immediately named syria and Iran speaks volumes.
If Iran wanted to change the subject of the G8 meetings, they have succeeded. Iran might be the topic, but the content of the discussion is not likely to be favorable to the Iranian regime.
One reason Hezbollah grabbed the prisoners was because Israel still had three of their prisoners. Hezbollah has been threatening for months to use force to get those prisoners back.
Another reason is that pressure was building within Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah because their "resistance" function was now seen as being obsolete. Since Israel agreed on the border and wasn't occupying their land, why have a resistance movement? So the capture of the soldiers helps justify their existance.
I'm not sure if Hezbollah miscalculated. Supposedly they have strong support from the one-third of Lebanon's population that is Shiite. If that is true, it would be impossible for either Lebanon or Israel to get rid of them entirely. They could just drive Hezbollah further under ground, spread into the population.
I'm not sure if Israel is strong enough to leave its prisoners in enemy hands for years if necessary instead of trading them. Another problem is that Hezbollah has over 10,000 rockets capable of hitting Israel, so the war will be disruptive on both sides. If the rockets are still flying a month from now, will Israelis be tired of living in shelters and so just say "trade the prisoners and be done with it"? I hope Israel hangs tough, but so many other countries have caved in during the past that I can't be sure.
Given the daily terrorist attacks still occurring in Iraq, and the many years of terror bombings during Lebanon's civil war, I doubt if Lebanon's government could maintain peace even if it exerted control over Southern Lebanon. My understanding is that right now the country is basically partitioned, with Hezbollah getting the Southern part and the Lebanese government controlling the rest, with an agreement not to mess with each other's turf. So even if the government could occupy the south and control or destroy all the important buildings, they'd probably face terrorist attacks as in Iraq or the old days of Lebanon. Which probably means that Hezbollah isn't going away.
washtimes.com
Hezbollah's attack against Israel yesterday left the United States scrambling to ensure the survival of Lebanon's first sovereign government in 30 years and to avert further escalation of tensions in the Middle East.
U.S. officials, who woke up to forceful demands from Hezbollah and Israeli statements about a state of war that would turn Lebanon back two decades, immediately resorted to private channels with both governments.
One of the more challenging diplomatic tasks, officials said, was to persuade Israel to tone down its rhetoric against the Lebanese government, whose lack of control over the entire country is no secret but whose collapse is the last thing Washington wants.
Israel said it held the government in Beirut equally responsible with the Hezbollah militants for the kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers. But Washington withheld criticism of the government while placing the blame squarely on Hezbollah and its backers in Iran and Syria.
"Let's focus on who actually committed these acts, and that's Hezbollah," State Department spokesman Sean McCormack told reporters. "It is a statement of fact that they do operate outside ... of the control of the government of Lebanon."
I wonder how long the Israeli citizens will put up with this? Would we in America yield if the missiles were flying at us or would we say "Just swap the prisoners so I can go shopping in peace?"
Katyusha rockets landed in the northern Israeli towns of Karmiel, Safed, Hatzor, and Majd el-Kurum, as well as several other communities throughout the north Thursday afternoon.
Eleven people were wounded. One person was critically wounded, one was in serious condition, and several suffered light injuries in the attacks by Hizbullah.
Residents of the cities were ordered to enter bomb shelters and fortified rooms.
Let's consider things on their face. Israel is attacking specific Hezbollah targets and is shutting down the obvious resupply routes into Lebanon by clamping down on the airport and blockading the port.
Hezbollah must be expending ammunition at tremendous rate and without resupply, they will start to hurt. But Israel almost certainly doesn't plan to reoccupy Lebanon. That would simply be too expensive. It can't afford the manpower.
So the likely scenario is that Israel's forces will run a high-intensity fight for about a week and then withdraw, with or without the captured soldiers, with or without any additional prisoners they may lose to Hezbollah. I think this much is fairly safe to predict.
But somehow the Israelis are going to try make every blow felt in Damascus. How? By hitting known Syrian assets in Lebanon certainly. By playing the old game of empowering the Syrian's enemies certainly. But I think they are going to try to bring in the Syrians by some means. This is always how the IDF has killed their enemy. By getting them to overextend. I'm not sure they want to suck in the Syrian Army. But I think they want to entangle Syria in some crippling way. Will humiliating Syria by hitting their clients be enough to draw them in? Will the Iranians stand by while their guys get chewed up?
Recall that the Iranians are running ops in Iraq. This then, must be an unwelcome "second front" for them. They don't have limitless resources. The next 48 hours will be crucial at determining which way this thing is going.
My own view is that this is about "control" of the Palestinian agenda. However, I'm still thinking this through, so I'd be very interested in Belmont Club commentary. Key ideas:
1. Iran has regional ambitions. Whether they include destroying Israel or merely being recognized as a "regional hegemon" at the expense of the Gulf Arabs, Iran wants to be the big macher among Muslim countries, especially in the Middle East.
2. One cannot be the regional hegemon without displacing Egypt and Saudi Arabia in the setting of the regional agenda.
3. For Muslims worldwide, leadership on the Palestinian/"Zionist entity" conflict is the sine qua non of regional status and prestige.
4. In the Arafat/Fatah years, Saudi Arabia and Egypt set the Palestinian agenda. The rise of Hamas reflects Iran's growing ambition to seize control of the Palestinian agenda so that it can garner the attendant prestige in the region.
5. Syria is Iran's satellite, for all intents and purposes. The two have been pushed together by Syria's wierdness (which results in its general isolation in the Arab world) and the American presence in Iraq. Hezbollah is a dependant of both Syria and Iran.
6. So you have Iran, Syria, Hamas and Hez lining up against Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the Gulf States. There are a number of prizes, but control of the Palestinians and, more importantly, the all-important opposition to Israel, is the big prize for the bloc that wants to be seen by ordinary Muslims as in charge.
7. Iran and Syria have been building this confrontation with Israel to change the terms of debate in the region in their favor. Egypt, Saudi Arabia and others have been muted in their criticism of Israel because they would love to see Hamas and Hez taken down a few pegs. By the way, so would the rest of the world.
Comments?
Explosions rock Agip's pipelines
By Samuel Oyadongha
Posted to the Web: Thursday, July 13, 2006
Yenagoa—Two separate explosions allegedly carried out by suspected militants Tuesday rocked pipelines conveying crude oil to the Nigerian Agip Oil Company terminal off the Atlantic coast of Twon Brass in Bayelsa State forcing the company to shut it's supply.
The first explosion recorded was an eighteen inches pipeline at the Clough Creek delivery line from the Tebidaba flowstation said to have caused massive oil spillage around the Akassa axis in the Brass local government area of the state. The incident said to have occurred at about 11 am according to sources has caused heavy spillage around the Akassa area and is fast spreading to other surrounding communities around the coastal area.
The second spill allegedly caused by explosion involving a 10 inch pipeline at Lagosgbene at Igbomatoru in the Southern Ijaw local government area along the Nun River. Sources told Vanguard that this has forced the Italian oil giant to shut in about 50,000 barrels of oil to prevent the spill from spreading.
Nigeria oil infrastructure has already been struck.
The Iranians wanted some pressure applied to the G8, any normal, proportionate response in the Levant favors Iran.
So far the Israeli are acting proportionatly, to bad.
Another opportunity to "end" it without genocide is slipping away.
The Supremes must be right, just local dustups, not International War.
VDH says the Admin & Mr Bush have not explained the scope of the conflict, he's right.
Bush Needs to Better Explain Complex Terror War
or have it explained to him.
Wretchard, our comments passed in the night.
I suppose my quick reaction to your last comment is:
1. Agree that Hez probably did not plan for a full-scale war against Israel, or at least Israel hopes this.
2. I think the biggest restraint on Israel vis Syria is the concern about the endgame. It is one thing to put Assad in a tiny little lockbox, and quite another to topple him from power. Israel is not stupid, and has to worry about what comes next.
3. As is obvious from my comment, I don't think Iran is presently worried about a "second front." That is not to say that it shouldn't be, but it seems to have a leadership that is preoccupied with enhancing its prestige in the region at almost any cost to its economy and the "security dilemma" it otherwise confronts (i.e., increasing the Western opposition to the Islamic Republic). Indeed, this is arguably a third, fourth or fifth front, if we look at the nuclear confrontation, Afghanistan, the subversion in southern Iraq, the shadow war in Kurdistan and the caucuses, etc., as other significant management challenges facing the Iranian regime. Perhaps, like Hitler's government, Ahmadinejad and the current crop of clerics are blind to imperial overstretch. It has happened before.
Then again, I could be all wrong!
Oil hits $76 USD per barrel.
The Iranians are UP, again.
Will wonders never cease.
> Hezbollah must be expending ammunition at tremendous rate and without resupply, they will start to hurt
I thought about that, but one estimate was that Hez. has 13,000 rockets. If they use 100 a day that would still be over a four month supply. Plus even though Israel has blocked air and sea, Lebanon borders Syria so they can resupply that way.
I think the boycott is targeted against the government of Lebanon, and therefore the internation community. Israel is going to hold their feet to the fire to do something about Hezbollah, which according to security council resolution is supposed to disarm and pull back from the border. Israel has said one of its goals is to remove Hezbollah from the border.
Tigerhawk,
I like your framework, but what leadership does Iran crave exactly? It must be more than psychological. Hegemony must have an actual physical basis. Syria's interest in Lebanon was money. That and the power to organize "militants" against Israel. So my speculation -- out of pure ignorance I'll admit up front -- is that after Saddam went south, Syria needed an ally to hold on to its tatters and in consequence became strange bedfellows with Iran. Lebanon and Hezbollah is the crown jewel of Iranian foreign policy. They are a physical expression of Iran's hegemonic ambitions. The token of their leadership.
Recent Israeli actions are holding part of Iran's power base at risk. How will they defend? Through Syria. The sea and air are closed to them.
If the Iranians were smart, they would let the Israelis just punch themselves out. But then, the Israelis can keep coming back. They have a clear geographic advantage over Iran in dealing with Hezbollah. So sooner or later Iran must act to defend the very basis of hegemony. How? Always Syria. Boy Assad is probably being asked to listen to things from Teheran that he doesn't want to hear.
I haven't thought this through clearly, but it seems to me that Syria and Iran are sorely tempted to react in some way. The next step on the staircase.
Wu wei,
The problem those 13,000 rockets is that in common with all artillery, they need to be moved. They need dumps. They need logistics. Right now the dumps are probably under IDF attack and can't be easily shifted. So yes, 13,000 rockets are a good supply, but much of that will be inaccessible or destroyed in the coming days.
Iraq begins to stabalize
Light at the end of the tunnel syndrome sets in with the DC crowd.
For those looking for a "Tet" this is not it, unless Israel takes the opportunity to destroy Charlie, I mean Mohammed.
Just the Mullahs sending a little reminder that it is a quagmire and that Iran controls not only the fish, but the sea itself.
wretchard said...
Recall that the Iranians are running ops in Iraq. This then, must be an unwelcome "second front" for them. They don't have limitless resources. The next 48 hours will be crucial at determining which way this thing is going.
6:31 AM
/////////////////////
On the other hand perhaps Ahmadinejad means what he says. consider this article from the FARS news agency english language version.
13 Jul 2006
تهران - 17:26 / GMT-13:56
13:08 | 2006-07-12
POLITICAL
نسخه چاپي ارسال به دوستان
Ahmadinejad: Zionist Regime to Be Annihilated Soon
TEHRAN (Fars News Agency)- Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said that the Zionist Regime will be fall down in the near future.
Addressing a large gathering of the public in the northwestern city of Jolfa Wednesday morning on the second leg of his tour of Azerbaijan province, the President noted the cruel manslaughter of the Palestinians by the Israeli regime and described the Zionist Regime as a symbol of blasphemy and blasphemous people.
He said that the world nations do not obey oppression any longer today, and stated, "We will soon witness the fall of the Zionist Regime."
Calls for proportionality are already rising from Europe
"... "Greece expresses its serious concern and is intensely troubled," Antonaros said.
"It is vital, to stop the (situation) worsening, Hizbullah must immediately release the soldiers taken hostage," he said. "At the same time, Greece calls on the government of Israel to avoid the use of excessive and pointless force which cannot provide a solution to the problem."
From the JP Post
If the Israelis do not engage the Syrians and destroy their Military capacity, Hezzbollah just regroups when the Israli go home. Israeli withdrawl is a foregone conclusion.
The whole episode will be meaningless, just another salvo, instead of a decisive moment.
I hope Israel destroys all the missiles quickly. However I remember how long we spent Scud missile hunting in Desert Storm 1, and they are much larger missiles. From what I've seen the Katyushas are small enough to be launched from a trailer on the back of the truck.
There was an exchange of words between Israel / Hez. about bombing Beirut, after Israel warned citizens to leave. The gist of it seems to be that Hez. is storing and launching missiles from a heavily populated area.
Israel sees this as being a long siege, probably with no ground invasion of Lebanon. That's why the patience and endurance of their citizens is so important.
Jerusalem Post
A high-ranking IDF source said that the current operation, dubbed Operation Just Reward, would be "long" and could last up to several months, or "as long as it takes to destroy the Hizbullah's ability to launch attacks against Israel."
The IDF source said the Dahiya neighborhood of Beirut, a Hizbullah stronghold, would be targeted if rocket attacks continued to hit Israeli cities.
The source said that all terrorists in Dahiya, including Hizbullah head Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah himself, were fair targets for the IDF. "We will operate against all the terrorists who operate against us," he said, warning that civilians inside Dahiya could also be hurt in a possible IDF strike. Nasrallah's family lived in the Dahiya neighborhood.
Russia, France, Britain and Italy criticised Israel for its "disproportionate" use of force. ...
... British Prime Minister Tony Blair's spokesman, when asked specifically about Israel's military response to the abductions, said: "The British government hopes that actions will be proportionate." ...
... France's defence minister also stressed that the situation could have repercussions at both the local level and for the world. "That goes much further since what happens in the Middle East serves as a pretext for terrorism too," Michele Alliot-Marie said on France Inter. ...
Opprtunity lost?
habu
Roll in los Cubanos y Senor Chavez.
Put's Mr Putin a step ahead of where the Soviets were.
Two steps back, two steps right, three steps up.
Please permit one additional thought on this.
the wild card I see is Maschaal. he's Hamas, He's in Syria and he's talking rapidly right now.
If this person does in fact represent the true authority over Hamas, does Israel have the option of military action against him in Damascus?
To me Mashaal and Shalit are now intertwined. Just as archduke ferdinand was the ignition point for a great war, I see no reason why these two men can't be viewed as the ignition point for the final ME confrontation.
the problem with an Iranian dominated region is that it will never be enough. Today Syria tomorrow the world. Ceding significant influence in the ME to Iran is simply kicking the can down the road for our grandkids.
One of the issues I see, and I am impressed with the analysis of both Tigerhawk and our gracious host, is that the former power brokers in the region were'nt any damned good either. The saudi's funded the current mass psychosis and the egyptians have done nothing of value to bring peace to the region.
so it seems we need a third option: a manufactured ally in Iraq. If the Iranians have proxies, why shouldn't the US?
This opinion piece from CBS agrees with the Iran theory.
How did this crisis escalate so far so quickly? CBS News correspondent Howard Arenstein reports many analysts are pointing fingers at Iran, saying it could be behind the decision by Hezbollah to open a second front against Israel. Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has often threatened to destroy the Jewish state, and would like nothing better than to divert attention from his nuclear program as President Bush meets this weekend with G-8 allies in Russia.
The guerrillas in Gaza and Lebanon found Israel's soft underbelly, captured soldiers, says Arenstein. In such a small country, many feel as if their own sons are in enemy hands, and distances are deceptively short. Beirut and Tel Aviv are only 130 miles apart
"Beirut and Tel Aviv are only 130 miles apart "
Funny thing, Tel Aviv and Damascus, about the same.
Why should Iran do anything other than continue a successful strategy? Their price for their one and only product keeps rising. They support enough turmoil in a fashion that allows deniability. Deniability is easy for almost everyone in the world except The United States.
As of this writing it appears that Israel is doing nothing more than restating, "You f**k with bull, and you get the horn."
There is no grand strategy in play.
Rufus, though is most likely correct.
Jets dropped two bombs on the runway at the Rayak air base in the eastern Bekaa Valley, damaging it, police said. No casualties were reported.
Rayak, four miles west of the Syrian border, is home to the country's main military air base and is military headquarters in eastern Lebanon. Lebanon's army has no operational fixed-wing military aircraft and only operates helicopters equipped with machine guns.
No fixed wing resupply, until the runways are repaired.
Couple of hours of dozer time, at least.
At a minimum the new Lebanese border will be thirty miles to the north. Permanently. And if the Katusha rockets get any extended range beyond twelve miles, cancel your travel plans for the ME.
> Report: Hezbollah intends to transfer kidnapped IDF soldiers to Iran (AFP)
That ticker, if true, would explain Iran's motive. It might give the big war to end all wars. I didn't see the full story on any AFP sites though.
On other hand the Lebanese government is putting together a cease fire proposal that would require Hezbollah to give up the prisoners in exchange for nothing more than an Israeli / Hezbollah cease fire.
"One cannot justify the continued destruction by Israel of the civilian infrastructure in Lebanon and in Palestinian territory, involving the disproportionate use of force in which the civilian population suffers," the Russian foreign ministry said.
Clearly Israel should follow this sage advise from the people that have great experience with restraint as in Chechnya for instance.
Foxnews has this breaking news with no details:
Israel Says Hezbollah Trying to Send Kidnapped Soldiers to Iran
That'll be something to watch.
Pushing that envelope
Those Iranians held US hostages for what, 444 days?
Without ever paying a price.
Jerusalem Post
Israel: Hizbullah trying to move soldiers to Iran
By ASSOCIATED PRESS
Israeli foreign ministry officials said Thursday evening it has information that Hizbullah guerrillas are trying to transfer captured soldiers Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev to Iran.
I had noticed that myself, jp.
Is it part of a grand Mohammedan strategy, stand down in Iraq, while drawing Israel into the mix?
It is but 24 hours respite in Iraq, not really a trend, yet.
I was just thinking that this is a proxy war. 'Rat hit the big deal for me. Oil hits $76+. IMO, the Iranians are probing the US response, whilst maximizing their cashflow over the next couple of months.
Is the world prepared to accept $80-100 bbl oil? How much pressure will the Chinese and the US (biggest net importers) bring to bear in order to contain this drag on their economies? Iran can call it quits whenever they want and they will have gained valuable intelligence. Unless they become directly involved as a belligerent party, they've already scored a victory.
Heh. Events run faster than I can type. Surely this is a bluff by Hizbollah, right? Iran understands that IDF + USAF = Bad Times, right?
Time to start surging those carriers, Navy.
Maybe the plan is for Iran president Ahmadinejad to declare himself the new Grand Caliph, the one who will unite all Islam. He'll say we've got nukes, we've got oil, we control all the terrorists, and we've got Israeli prisoners. Arabs will flock to their strength, able to stand up to Israel, while others will cave out of fear.
Right after 911, GWB had an historic opportunity to put a tax on oil that would have atarted a process to reduce the US dependence on this imported strategic resource. The politics would have allowed it and the Federal Reserve monetary policy would have made it painless.
But while GWB was celebrating Ramadan and reminding a stunned nation about the inherent virtues of the religion of peace, he forgot. Our enemies and non-friends picked up the cudgel and have extorted their own tax of two dollars per gallon( and counting). The Islamic world, and George's soul mate, Vladimir, are enjoying an unprecedented transfer of wealth from the west. The cost of this incalculable historic blunder is stunning.
[Hezbollah Chief] Nasrallah said the two soldiers had been taken to a place "far, far away" and that an Israeli military campaign would not win their release.
Hezbollah made those remarks yesterday, another possible indication of transfer of the hostages to Iran.
Not Arabs, w.w.
The Persians have no desire to just lead "Arabs". Ypir horizon is to limited.
The Iranians plan on representing 1.5 Billion Islamists to the world. Nothing less.
Spengler, writing at the Asia Times, insinuates the commencement of outright warfare between the US and Iran in August 2006. We won’t have long to wait to find if he is correct.
If Spengler’s quasi-prediction holds, then, Israel’s newly established redoubts in both Gaza and Lebanon offer ideal strongpoint from which to quickly and strategically widen the conflict and secure the volatile west flank of the coalition.
As to whether there was a miscalculation by Iran and Co, Israel’s probable capture or marginalization of the purported 13,000 rockets in southern Lebanon suggest this is the case. Had choice been war, those rockets would have been launched, with devastating effect.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HF27Ak02.html - Prisoner’s dilemma in Tehran
The scariest scenario is that the Iranians intend to "force" the appearence of that "12th Imam".
Their actions make a lot more sense, if viewed from that angle.
The Souix believed, at the end, that prayer and dance could stop a bullet.
My oh my.
Didn't we just give Israel some kind of Star Wars missile defense system? Isn't it up and running yet? At what point can we expect to see them start to shoot these things out of the sky are their way in?
Or does it just work for nukes and not the little Palestinian rockets?
Shimon Shecter, a 43-year-old construction worker, said he was sitting in his car at a traffic light on the road out of Nahariya when a rocket struck near his vehicle.
"I heard a big whoosh. There was a huge explosion and I saw dark in my eyes," Shecter, who suffered shrapnel wounds to his face, said from his bed at the Western Galilee border hospital.
The hospital had moved many patients to underground bunkers to protect them from rockets, two of which hit the hospital's outer fence, said spokeswoman Judith Jochnowitz.
Lea Kenig said she was packing up her family to try to get away when a rocket landed.
"I saw the light of an explosion and I heard a big boom," Kenig said as she tried to comfort her wounded two-year-old son, Ofir, at the Western Galilee Hospital.
Even though the metal shutters of her apartment were closed, a piece of shrapnel the size of a bullet sliced through and hit Ofir in the shoulder.
"The government is not doing enough" to protect the residents of northern Israel, she said.
The above is about some of the missiles Hezbollah shot into Israel. Even though it is sad that the little boy was hurt, that last comment
"The government is not doing enough" to protect the residents of northern Israel, she said.
reminded me of something that a leftist politician would say in the US. The Israeli government told people to move to underground shelters, but that mother didn't listen and now she blames the government. Opposition politicians encourage that attitude, making it impossible to win a war because casualties are intolerable.
We must remember that the plan to capture the prisoner was disseminated five months ago. Now, it's possible they just wanted a hostage to trade, and it's possible it was just a petty swipe at Israel. It's also possible this is, as I said earlier, a designed prelude.
I also remember Ledeen saying something about Iran planning "three crises" for us in the region before the UNSC decides its course vis Iran's nukes. Without confirmation we don't know if this is even accurate information, but it's worth considering.
Now, let's talk about transferring the captured soldier to Iran. Whether this was planned all along, or whether this move is opportunistic, it shows me two things: 1) As Tigerhawk said, Iran is positioning itself as the Muslim champion against the Zionists and the guarantor of the Palestinian agenda. 2) It also is a glimpse of what could happen if Iran had nukes. Every act of terrorism, every kidnapping, could be ultimately underwritten and protected by the Mullahs and their bomb.
Another thing that we must at least address. Tom Holsinger thinks Iran already has a few nukes (Luttwak dismisses this as preposterous). If that is so, it changes the analysis somewhat.
But let's deal first with what we know:
1. The decision to capture Shalit two weeks ago was given by Mashaal, who gave the order from Damascus. The Palestinian chapter of Hamas was not in charge, and couldn't successfully intervene.
2. Egypt was very close to diffusing the situation. Israel had agreed to multiple prisoner transfers. This would have been a political victory for Hamas. Mashaal and Damascus (and Iran?) wanted something more than a political victory, because they sabotaged the deal.
3. The Hezbollah border raid and kidnapping, a plan that was disseminated five months, was executed coincident with this crisis. More precisely, the plan was executed almost to the day that Mashaal and Damascus sabotaged Egypts deal. Hezbollah takes its orders from Damascus and Teheran.
4. Therefore, not only did they reject a short-term political victory, they deliberately decided to up the stakes.
5. Syria was recently kicked out of Lebanon by the new Lebanese government after Syrian intelligence assets assassinated PM Hariri. We know from their statements that the Lebanese government was not aware of Hezbollah's operation.
6. Five months ago the IAEA decided to refer Iran to the UNSC.
7. The EU-3 has now done the same.
8. The Bush Administration has issued a statement of unqualified support for Israeli actions. The Europeans and Russia are calling for proportionate responses.
Now for some speculation:
1. If, as Tigerhawk argues, Iran's regional aspirations are tied to its opposition to Israel and its support for the Palestinian agenda, then Iran has maneuvered itself conceptually to a place where it can never be seen to back down from any real or perceived Zionist attack. If Israel escalates this thing anymore--and they may already have escalated to a sufficient degree--Iran must respond or it will lose its long-sought prestige. If Iran desires to be the anti-Israel, it must show it here. If Hezbollah get's dismantled without Iran doing anything, that might just be intolerable for the Mullahs' self-perception. Therefore, war may already be determined.
2. If Iran has nukes, then they need war with the Zionists. And this was not, therefore, a miscalculation.
3. If they don't have nukes, why tempt Israel by asking for the captured soldier? Merely for propaganda?
Finally, is this merely a way for Syria to get back at the Lebanese government? They have motive.
We must remember that the plan to capture the prisoner was disseminated five months ago. Now, it's possible they just wanted a hostage to trade, and it's possible it was just a petty swipe at Israel. It's also possible this is, as I said earlier, a designed prelude.
I also remember Ledeen saying something about Iran planning "three crises" for us in the region before the UNSC decides its course vis Iran's nukes. Without confirmation we don't know if this is even accurate information, but it's worth considering.
Now, let's talk about transferring the captured soldier to Iran. Whether this was planned all along, or whether this move is opportunistic, it shows me two things: 1) As Tigerhawk said, Iran is positioning itself as the Muslim champion against the Zionists and the guarantor of the Palestinian agenda. 2) It also is a glimpse of what could happen if Iran had nukes. Every act of terrorism, every kidnapping, could be ultimately underwritten and protected by the Mullahs and their bomb.
Another thing that we must at least address. Tom Holsinger thinks Iran already has a few nukes (Luttwak dismisses this as preposterous). If that is so, it changes the analysis somewhat.
But let's deal first with what we know:
1. The decision to capture Shalit two weeks ago was given by Mashaal, who gave the order from Damascus. The Palestinian chapter of Hamas was not in charge, and couldn't successfully intervene.
2. Egypt was very close to diffusing the situation. Israel had agreed to multiple prisoner transfers. This would have been a political victory for Hamas. Mashaal and Damascus (and Iran?) wanted something more than a political victory, because they sabotaged the deal.
3. The Hezbollah border raid and kidnapping, a plan that was disseminated five months, was executed coincident with this crisis. More precisely, the plan was executed almost to the day that Mashaal and Damascus sabotaged Egypts deal. Hezbollah takes its orders from Damascus and Teheran.
4. Therefore, not only did they reject a short-term political victory, they deliberately decided to up the stakes.
5. Syria was recently kicked out of Lebanon by the new Lebanese government after Syrian intelligence assets assassinated PM Hariri. We know from their statements that the Lebanese government was not aware of Hezbollah's operation.
6. Five months ago the IAEA decided to refer Iran to the UNSC.
7. The EU-3 has now done the same.
8. The Bush Administration has issued a statement of unqualified support for Israeli actions. The Europeans and Russia are calling for proportionate responses.
Now for some speculation:
1. If, as Tigerhawk argues, Iran's regional aspirations are tied to its opposition to Israel and its support for the Palestinian agenda, then Iran has maneuvered itself conceptually to a place where it can never be seen to back down from any real or perceived Zionist attack. If Israel escalates this thing anymore--and they may already have escalated to a sufficient degree--Iran must respond or it will lose its long-sought prestige. If Iran desires to be the anti-Israel, it must show it here. If Hezbollah get's dismantled without Iran doing anything, that might just be intolerable for the Mullahs' self-perception. Therefore, war may already be determined.
2. If Iran has nukes, then they need war with the Zionists. And this was not, therefore, a miscalculation.
3. If they don't have nukes, why tempt Israel by asking for the captured soldier? Merely for propaganda?
Finally, is this merely a way for Syria to get back at the Lebanese government? They have motive.
To dig the tunnel, for the Gaza attack, took months as well.
The entire process has been planned, I doubt these are just a series of happenstance events, in a local conflict.
Where are the Arab governments on this? Does anybody have any insights on that question?
Also, this just in:
Radical Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad warned the European Union on Thursday that it would stand to suffer if it increased pressure on Iran to abandon its nuclear program.
Are these actions aimed towards the West -- a destabilization of an important region? Is this a more immediate, region-based strategy? Both?
Did the Korean missile launches have anything to do with this? Anything at all? Or are they playing an uncoordinated game of "who's a bigger problem?"
What about the attack on Nigeria? After the destruction of the Golden Mosque, Saudi oil was attacked. Is this similar?
It's possible that the Lebanese government is the prize in all this. The US is surely acting like it. Syria and Iran may have instituted a plan to consolidate Lebanon under an anti-Israel, pro Islamist new government.
Some more of those damned MSM folks, shedding blood for the chance to "spin" the story.
Rockets Fired by Lebanese Guerrillas Hit Journalists in Israel, Injure at Least One Person
07-13-2006 9:49 AM
NAHARIYA, Israel -- Rockets fired by Lebanese guerrillas hit a group of journalists in the northern Israeli town of Nahariya on Thursday, injuring at least one person.
An Associated Press photographer was standing with the group when the rocket hit, but was not injured.
Hopefully not to much blood.
President Karsai is investigating more alleged civilian death by US helicopter rocket & mini-gun fire in Tarin Kot, Afghanistan.
BOMBAY, India -- Authorities named two suspects Thursday in the Bombay commuter train bombings that killed at least 200 people.
The government's Anti-Terror Squad released photos of two young, bearded men it identified as Sayyad Zabiuddin and Zulfeqar Fayyaz. Their nationalities were not provided.
Chester weighs in:
If Larijani is in Damascus, my guess is they're trying to keep Israel from declaring war on Syria at all costs. Consider:
-Syria is militarily extremely weak compared to Israel
-Iran is not only weaker than Israel, it has no easy method of threatening Israel, save with missiles of questionable accuracy.
-Israel can strike Syria from the air with impunity.
Now consider: from the Iranian and Syrian standpoint, the best course of action is to vex the Israelis as much as possible via their Hamas and Hezbollah proxies. So long as this happens, Israel does take the headlines, and the attention span at the G8. But as soon as Israel declares war on Syria, or commits an act of war, which might be the same thing, then events start to turn sour for the Iranians.
He agrees that Iran will have to enter or lose face if this thing gets any worse. In fact, we may already be there.
So my guess is neither Israel, nor Syria, nor Iran want to get in a war with each other at the moment. But there're always wild cards. At least three groups, Israel, Hamas, Hizbollah, and possibly a fourth, the Lebanese military, are now involved. From that stew, an event might emerge that like it or not would force a widening of the conflict by one side or another, or an entry by Iran or Syria. This is it, in a nutshell: Is Israel willing to risk a widening of the conflict in order to dismantle Hamas and Hezbollah? Is Iran willing to risk the dismantlement of Hamas and Hezbollah in order NOT to widen the conflict?
Chester rejects the conspiratorial notion that this was all part of some plan. But we know there was a plan.
According to a piece in the New Republic that Chester links to:
The ultimate threat, though, isn't Hezbollah or Hamas but Iran. And as Iran draws closer to nuclear capability--which the Israeli intelligence community believes could happen this year--an Israeli-Iranian showdown becomes increasingly likely. According to a very senior military source with whom I've spoken, Israel is still hoping that an international effort will stop a nuclear Iran; if that fails, then Israel is hoping for an American attack. But if the Bush administration is too weakened to take on Iran, then, as a last resort, Israel will have to act unilaterally.
In that context, Israel will probably not do anything now to derail the opportunity for 1) a diplomatic solution to Iran, or 2) a US attack. Starting an all out war would eliminate option one, if it ever existed. But would it make option two more or less likely? I bet the Israelis are discussing that right now.
Hezbollah is starting to use their longer range rockets. One just hit Haifa.
Of far greater concern to Israel than these antiquated and relatively short-range projectiles are Hezbollah's growing stocks of Fajr-3 and Fajr-5 rockets. Iran began large-scale delivery of the Fajr-3 in 2000 and the Fajr-5 in 2002, with the approval of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad.
Iranian cargo and passenger jets transport the weaponry from Iran to Damascus International Airport where they can be off-loaded by Hezbollah agents and members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. The weapons are then trucked to the Bekaa Valley. Other reports suggest some Iranian cargo flights land at Beirut International Airport, providing Hezbollah with a more direct supply route although this process may have changed with the Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon and the change in Lebanese government.
The Fajr-type rocket represents a significant upgrade to any threat assessment of Hezbollah. Designed by Iran with aid from China and North Korea, both classes of weapons are fired from mobile launchers, including customized Japanese trucks, and carry 200 pound high-explosive payloads. The Fajr-3 has a range of 25 miles while its more powerful upgrade, the Fajr-5, has a range of 45 miles. Accordingly, the Fajr extends Hezbollah's strike range well beyond Haifa. While the number of Fajr missiles in Hezbollah's possession is unclear, Israeli estimates suggest an arsenal of at least several hundred. In addition, Hezbollah has an unknown number of other missiles such as Syrian reproductions of Soviet BM-27 220mm rocket systems, which also can carry a warhead of 220 pounds to a range between 30-45 miles.
From Chester, again, linking to what he calls "the most interesting thing I've read in the past 24 hours." Excerpt (written in 2002):
A Syria that can be manipulated by Hezbollah under Iranian guidance could well miss that crucial moment when Iran and Hezbollah attempt to spark a regional conflagration by means of a military provocation on Israel's northeastern border. ...
The more that Nasrallah is convinced that Assad Jr. is not up to speed; the more he will be convinced that he, in consultation with his Iranian cohorts, holds the key to power. And if he is convinced that there is an American threat to Iran, he will preempt it by striking at the Galilee to provoke an Israeli retaliatory strike.
But that retaliatory strike will be at Hezbollah in Lebanon as well as Syria.
This is not an imaginary scenario. As recently as three weeks ago, American and Israeli UN representatives met privately with their Syrian counterpart to warn him of the danger posed to Syria and the entire region by Hezbollah.
The singular conclusion is that someone has to inject sufficient fear into the Syrians to bring Nasrallah down.
And if the Europeans and Americans can't, the Israelis will.
hmmm...
The key lies in Damascus.
The "control node" for the Iranians in the Levant.
Break it or disable it and Iran is blocked from the Med. The status que favors Iran and improves it's position daily.
Does Tehran have enough "command & control" to give Iraq respite as Lebanon erupts?
Or are all these events unassociated coincedental "one ofs"?
I wager it's all coordinated. That the Iranians do have that much influence in Iraq.
That may be the "real" lesson to be learned.
Link to the full article here.
> Where are the Arab governments on this?
Some of the moderate ones like Egypt and Jordan indicated they disagree with Hezbollah, that they were hurting the Palestinians, but they also comdemned Israel. The Islamists of course stuck together with Hezbollah.
They've got at least a 30 mile range.
Two Katyusha rockets fired by Lebanese guerrillas hit the northern city of Haifa on Thursday, but no one was injured, police said.
The attack on the city of 270,000 people about 30 miles from the border was the farthest south that rockets fired from Lebanon had ever hit.
It was certain to invite a harsh response from Israel, which was already pounding Lebanon following the capture of two of its soldiers.
"Those who fire into such a densely populated area will pay a heavy price," said David Baker, an official in the Israeli prime minister's office.
The rockets hit the Haifa neighborhood of Stella Maris, a Christian area filled with restaurants, a monastery and a church.
Iran says it doesn't want the hostages.
Israel has rejected Hizbollah demands that it release Arab prisoners in exchange for the captive soldiers, named by the Israeli army as Ehud Goldwasser, 31, and Eldad Regev, 26, but says it fears the soldiers could be spirited to Iran.
"Those concerns have a basis," said Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman Mark Regev.
Iran dismissed the idea out of hand. Its Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi said Israel was "talking absurdities" because of its isolation and domestic tensions.
Back in Jimma's day, the Iranian government claimed it did not control the US hostages, either.
Those pesky "students" were just out of control.
w.w.,
$100K Arrow vs. $5K Katuysha.
Ledeen has an essay up, where he makes this interesting observation:
The Lebanese Tourism Ministry’s Research Center announced an amazing statistic in early July: in the first six months of the year, 60,888 Iranian tourists visited Lebanon. No other Asian country came close (the Philippines ranked second, with a bit over 12,000). I don’t think that there’s enough disposable income in mullahland to cover the expenses of more than ten thousand people a month headed for the Beirut beaches. Do you think, as I do, that a goodly number of those “tourists” were up to no good?
Roggio on the Mugniyah connection.
If the Mohammedans brought in the "A" team, well then, they wanted the provocation.
The level of Israeli response, so far, proportionate to the deed.
It is no coincidence, a series of raids, prisoner snatches and political pressure. All coinciding with Iran's referral to the Security Council.
As well as NorK's.
Hard to see any miscalculation, yet.
Seven killed in restaurant attack
From: Reuters
July 12, 2006
A SUICIDE bomber walked into a restaurant in eastern Baghdad today and blew himself up, killing seven people and wounding 20, police have said.
A police source said he counted seven bodies in the restaurant in the mainly Shi'ite New Baghdad district.
The bomber's body was said to have disintegrated in the blast.
The "last" attack in Baghdad, yesterday.
After Bombay and Lebanon, hardly makes the grade, definately not above the fold.
But the lack of news from the Mahdi Army or the Badr Brigades, that may be telling.
Gunmen also stormed the bus station in Muqdadiyah, about 90 kilometers north of Baghdad , abducting 17 civilians and taking them to an unknown destination, police said.
Shi'ite lawmaker Sheik Jalaluddin al-Saghir told a session of parliament that 50 to 60 Shi'ites were abducted in the attack.
Again, this attack occurred on the 12th, an attack on Shia, one would assume by Sunni.
Wonder if those "50 or 60" make it to the morgue, to be counted, or just dumped in a hole and covered with sand?
i love it...
no more "homemade" rockets bullshit..
the palios & hezbolabitches are actually shelling and attacking israel without restraint...
from gaza, the west bank & from lebanon, this aint no simply "out of control" wild card militant...
it is war... (which it has been for quite some time, just dont ask the NYT)
So please Israel KICK THEIR ASS
There will be an immediate drum beat for the US to rush advanced technology to Israel. Israel has shown itself to be an un-worthy recipient of ultra-secret US technology. There have been numerous cases of illegal transfer of US technology to China and the Israelis are capable of establishing their own defense. There should also be no automatic consideration of US financing the expected extra cost incurred with this military exercise. This is in Israeli interest and certainly US interest. It is time for Israel to act as an ally and for the US to demand that of them.
Israel is a wealthy military power. It needs to act like one. It will be more powerful and more respected when it makes decisions that are in Israeli interest and paid for by Israeli taxpayers. Any advanced US technology deemed necessary for the defense of a worthy ally should be manned and under US military control and security. The US should give all necessary support that is in US interest. Israel should do everything to secure it's security and future. Hopefully, there is congruency in both goals.
The UN Security Council is going to discuss Lebanon tomorrow, so that will solve the problem.
Yes its really war. 122 Israelis wounded by rockets is higher than what Lebanon reported (although I'd never trust the latter).
The toll of casualties in Israel throughout the day stood at one death and 122 wounded.
Katyusha rockets landed in the northern Israeli towns of Karmiel, Hatzor, and Majd el-Kurum, as well as several other communities, throughout the north on Thursday afternoon.
At least 28 people were wounded in Majd el-Kurum - two moderately and seven from shrapnel. Others were lightly wounded and suffering from shock.
Israel didn't wait long to respond. They hit Hezbollah's home base.
The IDF began bombing Beriut's southern neighborhoods Thursday night following the firing of two rockets at the northern Israeli city of Haifa.
Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah, along with almost the entire Hizbullah hierarchy, reside in the same neighborhood in southern Beirut.
Hizbullah had warned Israel on Thursday afternoon that if the IDF attacked southern Beirut, where the organization's leadership is based, it Hizbullah would target Haifa.
2164th said...
There will be an immediate drum beat for the US to rush advanced technology to Israel
no, i dont see that
2164th : Israel has shown itself to be an un-worthy recipient of ultra-secret US technology.
name anyone that keeps ultra US secrets perfectly include the USA, but we can and will buy israeli technology for our purposes
2164th: There have been numerous cases of illegal transfer of US technology to China
yes, many from the USA and elsewhere
2164: and the Israelis are capable of establishing their own defense.
to a degree, does the usa help the Euro's? are they not capable of their own defense? so why should the USA not help israel?
2164: There should also be no automatic consideration of US financing the expected extra cost incurred with this military exercise.
ok, sounds fair, I had not heard any requests for such, are you just stating that an ally should not look to the USA for any additional help when being attacked by 2 of our countries "axis of evil" named players?
2164: This is in Israeli interest and certainly US interest. It is time for Israel to act as an ally and for the US to demand that of them.
they have acted as an ally, but have not been allowed to actually FIGHT back by the USA for decades, after all OUR interests have pushed the israelis OUT of captured lands (sinai) and made the israelis show restraint when fighting child murderers, quite unlike our own standards when we are attacked.
2164: Israel is a wealthy military power. It needs to act like one. It will be more powerful and more respected when it makes decisions that are in Israeli interest and paid for by Israeli taxpayers.
yes it used to have to fight the arabs and the ussr, now it's just down to the arabs and their oil money (that we provide them)
2164: Any advanced US technology deemed necessary for the defense of a worthy ally should be manned and under US military control and security.
i guess this is for all USA allies? the awacs that the saudis have for example?
2164: The US should give all necessary support that is in US interest. Israel should do everything to secure it's security and future. Hopefully, there is congruency in both goals.
i hope so, but dont be mad if israel looks to others for help if the USA doesnt want to help, after all the USA was late to the party in helping the new state of israel, the usa screwed the state of israel in 1967 when it PROMISED (by treaty) not to allow egypt to militarize the sinai & when the egyptians closed the Straits of Tiran, johnson FAILED to uphold the promise the USA made to israel..
thus causing the 1967 war........
which brings us to today..
as a supporter of israel and the usa, i hope israel takes less money from the usa so that they can bomb the monkeys (that we in the usa are fighting also) and that we in the usa would stop giving our trillions to these same monkeys (via oil) that take this cash to support the war on the west....
Dan said:
..."So let us finally fucking cash it already and rescue the rest of the region from its long and vicious idiocy. That, or lets take it over and exploit it like a whore, if it refuses to be improved. "
We seem to be having a problem digesting Iraq. I doubt we have the appetites to go on to the next course, let alone eat the entire table.
2164th said...
We seem to be having a problem digesting Iraq. I doubt we have the appetites to go on to the next course, let alone eat the entire table.
but the menu has changed...
we no longer care to "occupy" an arab state, all we now have to do is BREAK IT, since as you so well pointed out, the arabs are a wealthy group, they have oil, we can bomb a few hundred billion in infrastructure to dust, cause their people to be set back in the darwin mode by several generations and then NOT OCCUPY...
let them "pull themselves up by the bootstraps", they can afford it....
I always get a thorough analysis from "What is "Occupation" when I discuss Israel. I cannot buy the argument " that everyone else is doing it so why not I?" Anyone that is not capable of defending US security interests and is a recipient of US technology cannot be trusted with the "family jewels".
Israel is a regional player and the US is global. China has been developing military technology that can only have one country in mind. They have been doing so since they set off the first nuclear weapon in Lop Nor back in 1964,or thereabouts. The US needs to be in a position to be ahead of China in military prowess. This is not so the US would do the un-thinkable but to keep China from being so tempted.
I share your enthiusiasm and support for Israel. Some of my best friends are Democrats. However, I call them as as I see them and we disagree on some points, but none that would sacrifice Israeli security. My tilt is towards US security.
It's interesting that Hezbollah leadership claims they didn't launch those two long range missiles, and yet they were launched. According to Jerusalem Post, Iranian Revolutionary Guards are stationed in Lebanon to help man the missiles, including the long range ones. So maybe the guards got an order to launch from someone outside Hezbollah.
Israel said this was a serious escalation, and Hezbollah thought so too.
Although it is far fetched to believe that Israel would take direct military action against Iran, it is not beyond the realm of possibility that at some point during this conflict Iranian Revolutionary Guards who are reportedly stationed in Lebanon might get hit.
Israel has been saying for years that members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards are stationed among Hizbullah fighters in Lebanon, manning some of the thousands of missiles, some of them long range missiles that could hit the heart of the country, in southern Lebanon.
If they do fire those missiles the Iranian Revolutionary Guards may be targeted.
Targetting the Revolutionary Guards would be the closest that Israel is likely to come within the framework of this current conflagration to taking action against Iran.
2164th said...
I cannot buy the argument " that everyone else is doing it so why not I?" Anyone that is not capable of defending US security interests and is a recipient of US technology cannot be trusted with the "family jewels".
I dont disagree, however i dont seek to put israel on a different scale of measure than any other usa ally...
Israeli strategy is based upon the argument that attacking Lebanon will encourage the Lebanese to go after Hezbollah. So they waste Beirut International Airport.
Ramzi Binalshibh, an Arab student in Germany who organized the Hamburg cell led by Arab Mohamed Atta.
After 911 and 3000 US casualities. Perhaps we made an error in not taking out Hamburg International Airport (HAM) after 911. Sort of stiffen teutonic resolve in dealing with Islamic terrorism on German soil.
And Danmyers, there never is a bad time to say the truth as you see it. I am not telling Israel to take a hike but as timing is everything so is proportion. Katusha rockets are not exactly state of the art missiles.
Israel is making a strategy based on a premise that I doubt will impress the Islamic mind. These people will not do anything but flock towards the Hezbollah.
I do not want US technology getting into the wrong hands and later we lose a carrier group or two because of it. Israel has made a choice. I support their right to do it and I enthusiaticly hope it will work. I have not been polishing my Waffen-SS boots.
As my wife so astutely says.... "They're all cousins".
so?
doesnt everyone have an idiot cousin that we dont claim?
go back to the torah, the original scriptures...
abraham had a wife, sarah, she was barren, she had a hand servant hagar the egyptian woman, abraham schtupped the maid, made a bastard child ishmael... then sarah got prego, she had a kid, isaac, as years went on ishmael the older step brother by the maid, got to be a jacksass kind of guy, abraham threw out the maid and her kid at the insistance of his wife...
thus the jackass, opps are my cousins..
lesson learned?
never f*ck the maid without a condom...
2164th said...
Israeli strategy is based upon the argument that attacking Lebanon will encourage the Lebanese to go after Hezbollah. So they waste Beirut International Airport.
1. the idea is to STOP iranian 747 from rearming and supplying and removing the israel solders from lebanon
2. simply bombing a regular pattern on a runway is not "wasting Beirut International Airport."
let be accurate, now would i mind if i saw a few billion in lebanon fancy buildings destroyed as punishment....nope.....
but let's not be cnn.....
If Israel really believes Hezbollah is trying to get the hostage to Iran, then Israel needs to bomb the airports.
2164: Katusha rockets are not exactly state of the art missiles.
and david killed golaith with a rock...
and ww1 started with a single bullet
2164: Israel is making a strategy based on a premise that I doubt will impress the Islamic mind. These people will not do anything but flock towards the Hezbollah.
actually the ONLY thing they understand is power...
they do not respect turning the other cheek..
i remember that arafat ordered his guys to stand down from the major offensive using sniper rifles (that the usa gave them & trained them too) cause it was not cutting the press angle and the palios were being looked at as the baby murderers that they are, so he ordered his "vermen/troops" to go and stab one israel (perferable a women) to death every few day, after all israel could not go to war over that, it was not proportional...
the ideal should be taught to islamic scum:
if you stab us, we will shoot you
if you blow us up, we will body bag you with bacon
if you shoot a missle, we will blow up your mothers house with her in it
if you kill a bunch of us, we will kill you and your father, mother, brothers (all 12 of them) and their kids and stop your family name forever...
if you fart at us, we will throw grenades
if you draw cartoons that imply we are sons of pigs and apes, we will provide paper and crayons...
Wretchard:
Hegemony must have an actual physical basis.
I’m sure that was once true, but I’m not sure it will always be true. Within Islam, the key to hegemony comes not from the center but from the periphery. That is, he who fights the “infidel” is a conqueror, and Muslims love conquerors who ride on white horses.
The principal reason why the Ottoman Empire attained hegemony didn’t come from its conquest of Muslim space, but from its conquest of non-Muslim space. As a rule, conquest of non-Muslim space leads to very easy conquest of Muslim space. Within that mindset, one square acre of non-Muslim space (or even just Western press attention) is more valuable than 10,000 square miles of Muslim space. If actual conquest is not possible, then the next best thing is to fight against the “infidel” and hopefully not find one’s faction crushed in the process. Some forty years ago, Wahhabi analysts commented that the existence of Israel was an opportunity to promote (their version of) Islam (by turning the war against Israel into a political football).
The very notion that rival Arab factions are contending for who gets the honors of annihilating Israel must be particularly infuriating to Israelis. It’s like being falsely portrayed as the Joker or Lex Luthor, with Superman, Batman, the Lone Ranger, Captain America, and the Swamp Thing all vying for the honors of killing him. And if that’s not possible, he gets portrayed as a supervillain with honors going to just fighting against him, hopefully singeing his hair in the process. Imagine some Arab "hero" proclaiming, "Look, I just bruised Superjew! Look upon my works and despair!"
(Please note that I regard the Iranian government to be an Arab faction, for although it is culturally Iranian, it is the most thoroughly Arabized sector in Iranian society. If Iranian interests were considered alone, Israel would be Iran’s ally. Yet, since Iran is run by Arab wannabes who are trying to attain ascendancy within an Arabic-speaking context, the rules change, Iran’s government should be considered to be an essentially Arab state. Perhaps even a "hyper-Arab" state.)
All of this creates a nasty “emotional trajectory” on the Israeli side. Israel leaves the Gaza Strip unilaterally, turning it “judenfrei” in the process. In response, Hamas and Hezbollah punish them for it. The problem Israel faces is that when Jews play by the rules, Jews still get killed, Muslims still vilify the Jews, and Ahmadinejad still advocates The Holocaust: Part II. As a rule, angry bullies are nowhere near as nasty as nice people who turn to violence.
With the capture of Israeli soldiers, Israel has a valid casus belli against both Palestine and Lebanon. If the Security Council condemns Israel without demanding the unconditional release of Israeli soldiers, it is the United Nations that looks silly, not Israel. This isn’t like the Six Day War or even the Yom Kippur War, for Israel’s right to demand its soldiers back is well recognized.
Israel isn’t out of options. It’s just out of good options. One interesting thing here is that capturing physical space appears to be out of the question in this war. Instead of occupying territory, each side appears to be focusing on killing people. And this is the elemental difference between traditional warfare and Middle Eastern warfare – the aim in this form of combat is less to seize resources than to kill or control other people. It’s about killing enemies wherever you find them.
If Israeli soldiers are sent to Iran, Israel would then have the option of imposing a siege on Iran’s oil exports. Although Iran may threaten to use the oil weapon, Israel has that leverage too. If Israel causes the price of oil to go up to $400 per barrel, who says Arab factions control the oil weapon?
There is no incentive now for any faction to stop the spiral of violence now. Moreover, many people would profit handsomely if the Middle East burns. Russia, for one. (Consider how Russia is criticizing Israel for using less force than it uses in Chechnya, remarks practically designed to inflame the situation, not calm it down.) Russia’s place in the petroleum market would be greatly enhanced if the Persian Gulf were shut off. Alternative energy would also get a boost.
And of all people, environmentalists usually find it easier to press for getting off fossil fuels when fuel prices are high. I have sometimes imagined what would happen if some militant version of Greenpeace sabotaged the Persian Gulf’s tanker traffic to save the Earth from fossil fuels. It sounds fantastic, to be sure, but our world is looking more and more like a comic book fantasy in any case...
C4, as one who almost goes on auto pilot when I see anything you post about the ME, i will say that your recent post is dead on....
100% perfect
There may be a big and good game going on here. Israel is raising the heat in Lebanon to try to get the security council to enforce its resolution, and do something to disarm Hezbollah. That could be an excuse for the United States and other countries to be involved on Israel's side.
It's unlikely they would, but at least Israel can rub their faces in it, that there is an unauthorized guerrilla group right across its border, one who is holding its own government hostage. The whole world will be able to see the problem, even if they do nothing about it. That will provide leverage for Israel to act on its own.
The Arab/Muslim world finances its Salafist atrocities with petrodollars. We in America, however, possess more than fossil residues: Overflowing grain surpluses, our Green Gold.
Immediately halt any and all grain shipments to Mubarak's Egypt plus associated kleptocratic, terrorist sponsoring Mideast states. Bob Dole is gone; surely we could continue redundant, inflationary payouts to corporate Campaign Contributors by redesignating "family farms" as "grantors in aid of national security" (Congress does this all the time). Without firing a shot, three months at most would prove sufficient to confront the Mullahs with famines of their choice.
Use "Green Gold"... beats mushroom clouds o'er Beirut or Damascus any time. But of course, rescinding 75 year-old farm subsidies would require political will. We'd guess that several million people will have to perish first.
I think Hizbollah, Hamas, Palistinians, etc. misunderstood Israel's withdrawal from Gaza. They viewed it as a sign of weakness and surrender whereas it should have been clear that it was a final warning. The gloves were going to start coming off.
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