The Propaganda of the Deed
Eleven explosions till now in Baghdad alone and the news are coming while I type these words. I passed by two of the car-bombs on my way home, one of them-gladly-failed to detonate and the driver was arrested, he was apparently trying to attack the interior ministry, the crowd that gathered in the scene say the driver was Syrian. A few minutes later I saw a big explosion that was close to the green zone. The other passengers in the mini bus were discussing the explosion in Kadhimiya that killed more than a hundred construction workers who were waiting for employers to hire them.
The Washington Post described the attacks in this way.
Targets included crowds of Iraqi civilians and at least three U.S. military convoys. The deadliest attack, in a northwest Baghdad neighborhood, exploded among crowds of Shiite Muslim day laborers gathered to look for work. Iraq's Interior Ministry spokesman, Col. Adnan Abdul-Rahman, said 90 people were killed.
Iraq the Model continues:
The Al-Qaeda called it the "battle for avenging Talafar" and this gives us a clue of the extent of the losses inflicted upon Al-Qaeda by Iraqi and American troops and the anger and frustration associated with these losses. The huge losses of Al-Qaeda in Talafar were in my opinion a result of the poor training of the new recruits as many of the old, well trained fighters were either killed or arrested over the past two years.
US casualties to this point in September have been a third of those for the same month point in time as last year, despite the Tal-Afar offensive. One possible explanation is as Iraq the Model suggests, "the poor training of the new recruits" as the more experienced enemy fighters are killed off. If he is right, then the enemy would logically aim his remaining assets at soft targets. Although no definite information is in yet, the Baghdad attacks against US formations were probably far less deadly than those delivered against the jobless Shi'ite construction workers. Ironically the harder it becomes to hit American troops, the more likely the enemy is to turn his sights on civilian targets.
There is very little military value to massacring jobless people, as even the dimmest bulbs in Al Qaeda would realize. Therefore the goals of this attack must be entirely political: to hearten the insurgency's supporters and possibly to provoke a sectarian war. However, it may have the entirely opposite effect and strengthen the government's public mandate to do whatever it takes to wipe out the insurgents. Iraq the Model says, "this reminds me of Saddam when he felt that his end was nearing and called the battle "the hawasim" (the final or decisive) and it was indeed as it ended his reign."
We shall see.