The Propaganda of the Deed
Iraq the Model believes that the car bombs which hit Baghdad, with especially deadly effect on civilians, killing over a hundred, was Al Qaeda's revenge for Coalition Operations against Tal-Afar.
Eleven explosions till now in Baghdad alone and the news are coming while I type these words. I passed by two of the car-bombs on my way home, one of them-gladly-failed to detonate and the driver was arrested, he was apparently trying to attack the interior ministry, the crowd that gathered in the scene say the driver was Syrian. A few minutes later I saw a big explosion that was close to the green zone. The other passengers in the mini bus were discussing the explosion in Kadhimiya that killed more than a hundred construction workers who were waiting for employers to hire them.
The Washington Post described the attacks in this way.
Targets included crowds of Iraqi civilians and at least three U.S. military convoys. The deadliest attack, in a northwest Baghdad neighborhood, exploded among crowds of Shiite Muslim day laborers gathered to look for work. Iraq's Interior Ministry spokesman, Col. Adnan Abdul-Rahman, said 90 people were killed.
Iraq the Model continues:
The Al-Qaeda called it the "battle for avenging Talafar" and this gives us a clue of the extent of the losses inflicted upon Al-Qaeda by Iraqi and American troops and the anger and frustration associated with these losses. The huge losses of Al-Qaeda in Talafar were in my opinion a result of the poor training of the new recruits as many of the old, well trained fighters were either killed or arrested over the past two years.
US casualties to this point in September have been a third of those for the same month point in time as last year, despite the Tal-Afar offensive. One possible explanation is as Iraq the Model suggests, "the poor training of the new recruits" as the more experienced enemy fighters are killed off. If he is right, then the enemy would logically aim his remaining assets at soft targets. Although no definite information is in yet, the Baghdad attacks against US formations were probably far less deadly than those delivered against the jobless Shi'ite construction workers. Ironically the harder it becomes to hit American troops, the more likely the enemy is to turn his sights on civilian targets.
There is very little military value to massacring jobless people, as even the dimmest bulbs in Al Qaeda would realize. Therefore the goals of this attack must be entirely political: to hearten the insurgency's supporters and possibly to provoke a sectarian war. However, it may have the entirely opposite effect and strengthen the government's public mandate to do whatever it takes to wipe out the insurgents. Iraq the Model says, "this reminds me of Saddam when he felt that his end was nearing and called the battle "the hawasim" (the final or decisive) and it was indeed as it ended his reign."
We shall see.
posted by wretchardthecat at 9/14/2005 07:16:00 AM
42 Comments:
While there is no "military value" in attacking innocents, that is viewing things in Western terms of Military Value.
Afghanistan prior to the U.S. invasion represents the ideal society for the likes of Bin Laden.
He represents those who can only stand tall because others have been laid low - the "military value" of such attacks derives from that philosophy.
Even if they won in Iraq, the terrorist "government" would keep killing such people anyway - just as Saddam did.
Why?
One of the basic functions of Government is to protect the life and limb of the citizenry. All governments must do this or they fail. AQ & the Baathists know this and are working to show Ahmed Abdulla (aka Joe Sixpack) the government in Iraq can not protect them. IIRC this is what happened in Algeria, which Wretchard has discussed here in the past.
Also, the end battle rhetoric is becoming louder and louder from the AQ types. I believe it to be rhetoric and little else.
"The Tal Afar operation is obviously a quagmire, and worse, it has given the terrorists the justification to attack us here in Baghdad. The Administration needs to explain why our people are dying for a war of occupation and a veiled attempt to secure oil on the cheap. We are in a battle for the hearts and minds of our Iraqi people, and we are losing. The unilateral actions of the Administration, along with its doctrine of preemption, has alienated our friends in Syria, Iran, and Waziristan, not to mention our longtime Baathist compatriots and France, and never before has the image of Iraq been so tarnished. These countries are sending men to murder our people, and it would be irresponsible for us not to ask why they hate us so. Something is wrong when we are opening firehouses in Tal Afar and having them blown up in Baghdad. The war is lost, and we have no exit strategy. Bring the troops home, Mr. President, before any more die for your lies."
Ted al'Kennedi, Democratic Socialists of Baghdad.
Therefore the goals of this attack must be entirely political: to hearten the insurgency's supporters and possibly to provoke a sectarian war.
It seems clear that "the bit dog is hollering" and that is good. Of course the goal is always political theater to be consumed by the western media and used for propaganda purposes by the left/msm. However, evidence is beginning to mount that the attempt to provoke a sectarian war is getting, at best, mixed results.
From the WaPO Sunday, August 14, 2005; Page A01
BAGHDAD, Aug. 14 -- Rising up against insurgent leader Abu Musab Zarqawi, Iraqi Sunni Muslims in Ramadi fought with grenade launchers and automatic weapons Saturday to defend their Shiite neighbors against a bid to drive them from the western city, Sunni leaders and Shiite residents said. The fighting came as the U.S. military announced the deaths of six American soldiers.
From Al-Reuters
RAMADI, Iraq, Aug 27 (Reuters) - Two Sunni Arab tribes, one loyal to al Qaeda and the other to the government, clashed in western Iraq, killing at least 20 people and wounding scores, clerics and hospital officials in the town said on Saturday...The tribes fought months ago and violent confrontations erupted again on Friday and Saturday near Qaim
Marcus
I think the relevant discussion regarding Algeria was that the French lost because they became so Draconian that they drove their indigenous supporters over to the side of the rebels. In the current case, it is Zarqawi et al who are taking the Draconian approach, while the kid glove approach of the US and the nascent Iraqi government vis-a-vis the Sunnis appears to be vindicated.
- the more grieving extended family members there are, the more people that will report terrorists -
Stoutfellow,
Yes perhaps. Then they are attacking the wrong people and perhaps the support they have among the left is actually hindering their cause!
Quite a few people I talk to are of the (Michael) Savage Mind, that is that we are not being brutal enough, that we should just turn Iraq into an obsidian plain and be done with it. Action such as this would indeed backfire.
Maybe they had to "use 'em or lose 'em" and revenge was just the 1st excuse they could think of.
I'm working on the screenplay for a film about a young teenager who survived the Fall of Berlin, WWII.
He relates how the radio would bring rants by Der Fuhrer, telling everyone about "...the Final Decision..." as Nazi Germany was being pounded into rubble!
The national-socialist fascist parallels with al-Qaeda Iraqi thug bombers are many, and telling. They SEE the writing on the wall, and it doesn't bring them ANY hope!
I think our new tactic of dressing up a cooperative local in an Iraqi army uniform and a hood, then rounding up all men in a village and letting him point out the bad guys has really thrown a wrench in our smiley faced enemy's M.O. of using the populace for camouflage.
Even if our masked informer only fingers the bad guys in the other tribe, or picks out some innocent ones, it will decrease the local populaces incentive to harbor their Jihadi / insurgent brothers.
The only flaws in our new tactic is that we arrest the fingered ones instead of allowing the pesh merga to summarily execute them on the spot, and that for some asinine reason the local Cleric is not included in the round-up.
I think once the US military and Media get to hell out of the way the new Iraqi Army will be able to nip this insurgency in the bud relatively quickly, using methods historically proven to resonate within our enemy's culture.
I just read the following headline at MSNBC.com - Al-Qaida in Iraq leader purportedly declares war on Shiites, Iraqi troops. That's all they've got thus far. Could be a civil war is a brewin'. Or it could be a uniting factor. We'll see.
From the post: "Targets included crowds of Iraqi civilians and at least three U.S. military convoys. The deadliest attack, in a northwest Baghdad neighborhood, exploded among crowds of Shiite Muslim day laborers gathered to look for work. "
Any thoughts on why social institutions in Iraq have not changed in some way to discourage crowds of people standing around? For example, waiting in lines rather than crowds would reduce the number killed from a suicide bomber. I understand the big advantage from being in the front of the line of the unemployed, but still. I live in a major city, take public transportation, and I am almost never in a crowd of more than 100 people.
Yea, they are getting more desperate, but until we shut down their money supply from around the world, (I have no idea how to stop the kidnappings) and jail the mullahs who are recruiting and brainwashing new recruits (all over the world), there is no way to defeat them in the long run.
There are two assholes in Iraq right now (along with their close ass.ociates, that need to be arrested today.
I'll let you guess who.
Papa Ray
West Texas
USA
Another nice little statistic, Iraqi Security Force fatalities are down 40% in September(6 a day) from July(10 a day).
Tex,
Waiting in a line is a foreign concept in Arabia.
It really is.
Aristides,
"There is no doubt that Saddam Hussein's regime is a serious danger, that he is a tyrant, and that his pursuit of lethal weapons of mass destruction cannot be tolerated. He must be disarmed." --Ted Kennedy, Sept 27, 2002
I wonder if he was nippin' at grandpapy's cough syrup when he said this, or the comments you just cut/pasted?
The attack on Shiite civilians and the declaration of war on Shiites is an acknowledgement of defeat packaged in bluster.
Zarqawi's brutality and the insurgency will continue for some time, but they are doomed to dwindle and fade away. Sunni's are not going to follow him over the cliff. Even if they did uniformly, it is suicide for 20% of the population to declare war on the other 80%, expecially when the other 80% (Shia Arabs and Kurds) has the backing of the United States.
Moreover, if Zarqawi continues to make the even bigger mistake of trying to force Sunni's to go along with his insane plan through intimidation, his movement will disappear all that much quicker as a result of a torrent of tips from Sunni informants.
I think the insurgency has run out of time for their civil war. The political process has progressed to the point where an increasing majority of Iraqis look to the new Iraqi forces as the group that ought to be responding to the insurgents. There is, to be sure, a great deal of dissatisfaction with the pace and effectiveness of the process of rebuilding the Iraqi security forces but that impatience is a sign that a corner has been turned.
The image of the insurgents in Iraq increasingly resembles the villains in old-fashoned melodrama -- twisting their moustaches and declaring "Foolish Shia and Kurds, your puny army cannot defend you" while their supporters, seeing the handwriting on the wall, start to quietly look for the exit.
As for how their attacks play in the US they are accomplishing less than they think. Most Ambericans will read the gory headlines looking for US casualties and if there aren't many they will tend to think "Those wacky Iraqis are killing each other again -- we ought to do something about it... Oh yes, we are, aren't we? Well, carry on then." Iraqi casualties will make headlines in the US -- the left-leaning media will see to that -- but they make less impact.
Attacks on three American convoys resulted in 10 wounded US soldiers; no deaths. That means we are still under fifteen KIA for September, despite the Tal-Afar offensive and despite their retaliation. But since they've killed 150 civilians, it's an 'insurgent victory'. Personally I don't think so.
Tex,
I suspect it is the security we impose that creates the lines. With our self imposed "safe zone" in the center of Baghdad, we set up a situation where there would be lines of people being checked as they came and went.
We would have been much better off if we had set up our bases outside the cities, and had less of a target. It may be that the looting set up a situation where we felt we had to protect the main assets left, i.e. the oil ministry.
Like Katrina, Monday Morning quarterbacking is always easier. It is easier to find scapegoats, rather than actually figure out if something went wrong, and try to solve it.
What is the equivalent of Breakout and Pursuit in Counter-insurgency operations?
The Sioux looked strong at Little Big Horn, but they were really broken at the Wagon Box fight prior. They were no longer able to keep the buffalo hunters out or the buffalo in or protect their wintering grounds.
Hard campaigning followed, but the losses at both battles reduced the Sioux's options for maintaining their Communcations and made the subsequent defeats inevitable.
The removal of the River Rat lines and then the closing of the Syrian border is the equivalent of killing the buffalo and then campaigning into the Black Hills.
The huge numbers killed in Tal Afar suggests a deliberate herding strategy or a panicked reaction of the terrorists. Massing huge numbers of insurgents into a pocket where they can be killed shows a breakdown in command and control.
"The other passengers in the mini bus were discussing the explosion in Kadhimiya that killed more than a hundred construction workers who were waiting for employers to hire them"
---
This has been asked here before, (hopefully not in this comment thread which has yet to be read by me)
But why isn't it possible to lessen casualties by not having big groups on the street?
Often there are other venues, and in this case they could have at least been in a long line rather than a bunch.
Is it a cultural thing that cannot be overcome?
red river 5:17 PM,
heh,
Disregard my advice when it is them doing it in response to our helpful prodding!
Marcus, 12:51 PM
Even under threat of death, the habit cannot be broken?
Am I stuck back on the Palestine thread, or what?
Carridine, 10:41 AM,
I know someone here that lived that life!
I'll contact him if you're interested.
He's a very outgoing, fun loving, sociable single guy that loves to talk.
One thing I wonder about: Will the common method of attacks between the Israelis and the Iraqis lead to an alliance between those two countries?
They are in a better position to understand what each other are going through than anyone else.
And both have great reason to hate Syria and to be concerned about Iran.
It was Karzi of the new Afghanistan who said "We see eye to eye with Israel on terrorism." Of course, in that case both could see "Arabs" as the main problem.
But it would be ironic, if not too surprising if both the new Iraq and Israel decided to cooperate in order to clean up the neighborhood - because they are both fighting Arabs who fight in the same brutal way.
And remember - the Palestinians were pro-Saddam.
J. Random American, 10:36 AM
Wasn't that the rationale for Desert Storm?
Hence no need to pursue beyond the highway of death.
(stocks were reduced to "reasonable" levels, mission accomplished)
rwe,
They could use a pipeline between the two as jihadi bait.
(while oil runs through the parallel one beneath the sands.)
OT: AstroBrain needed:
Astronomers from Japan and the University of Hawaii have used telescopes to measure a massive star in the throes of dying about 12.8 billion light-years away -- the most distant explosion of a star seen from Earth.
The gamma ray burst came from the explosion of the star at the dawn of the universe. (Anybody know HOW we "know" this?)
The astronomy team that measured the precise distance of the dying sun was led by Nobuyuki Kawai, astronomer with the Tokyo Institute of Technology, using the 8.2-meter Subaru telescope on Mauna Kea.
The Subaru telescope is Japan's largest optical-infrared telescope and operated by the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan.
Other astronomers collected information through telescopes worldwide, including NASA's Infrared Telescope Facility on Mauna Kea and the Magnum telescope on Haleakala.
. Starlight, Starbright
Great Clip at CNN:
Dems to blame for Brown hire? 2:21)
Democrats share blame for FEMA fallout for greenlighting Director Mike Brown. CNN's Ed Henry reports
Judge Carlton, who outlawed The Pledge in school,
(God and all)
earlier ruled IN FAVOR of Muslim Prisoner Religious Rights!
I wonder how many attacks on civilians like this it will take before the MSM and unthinking liberals will give up on the idea that America is causing all the trouble in Iraq?
I would estimate an infinite number.
I agree with what seems to be the consensus that this deliberate targeting of civilians is a sign of desperation on the part of the terrorists. I'm wondering, too, if this presages a pull-out of Iraq by Al-Queda to go and focus on the soft underbelly of Saudi Arabia. After all, our little terrorist buddies have shown they *really* don't like to deal with people who shoot back, and where else on earth do you have literal Keystone Kops who kill 160 civilian bystanders in order to bag 116 terrorists ... after how many escapes and misadventures and miraculous disappearances?
al-Qaeda vs the Magic Kingdom
By Bill Roggio
http://billroggio.com/archives/2005/09/alqaeda_vs_the_1.php
In a recent poll at an online forum of radical Islamists closely associated with al Qaeda in Iraq, the participants overwhelmingly endorsed taking the fight to Saudi Arabia (72 to 28% in favor). In the same timeframe, al Qaeda’s commander in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, has openly denounced the royal family of Saudi Arabia. "The (Saudi) tyrants are traitors to the nation and its religion, who have waged war against the mujahideen and allowed the Crusaders into the peninsula of Prophet Mohammad to loot its wealth and spread corruption…From what we have seen of these tyrants, their rule has no legitimacy.”
Counterterrorism expert Evan Kohlmann states al Qaeda in Iraq’s desire to take the fight to Saudi Arabia “is yet another sign of the impending “bleedout” effect from the conflict in Iraq.” But this is misleading, as it implies al Qaeda attacks on Saudi Arabia stem from the war in Iraq, and that al Qaeda is confining its actions to Iraq in the region.
...Zarqawi is merely following the lead of Osama bin Laden, who last December praised attacks within the kingdom, endorsed the overthrow of the al-Saud regime, and called for attacks on oil infrastructure.
So the question isn’t whether al Qaeda wishes to wage war on the kingdom, because they already are at war, but whether they wish to divert resources from Iraq to do so. If they are indeed willing to divert resources, then they:
• …believe Iraq is going well, and they can afford to devote expertise, fighters, supplies and money.
• …believe Iraq is going poorly, and are moving resources from the battlefield, using the precept that they desire to war with the al-Saud regime.
• …see a weakness in the Saudi government that they wish to exploit, and calculate that bringing down the Saudi regime would force the U.S. to divert resources from Iraq.
• …are making the statements for political reasons, and the statements are designed to shore up the ranks of al Qaeda, strike fear into the west and further drive up the cost of oil, and reach out to the disaffected citizens of Saudi Arabia.
I like Option #2 listed above, that Zarqawi has lost too much too often too soon, and needs to relocate and rebuild some momentum. I have to think that these cluster bombings around Iraq somehow speak to that need, too.
Zarqawi declares ‘all-out war’ on Shiites:
Zarqawi’s group remains a potent force in Iraq and although US and Iraqi forces have claimed to have captured a number of his aides, he remains an elusive quarry despite a number of near misses.
He was reported injured in May and said to have been treated in an Iraqi hospital.
Unlike bin Laden, Zarqawi has never released a videotaped message and preferred to remain a shadowy figure. Only grainy identity shots, old images from Afghanistan and more recent photos of a portly, grizzled figure give any clue as to his appearance.
http://www.timesofoman.com/newsdetails.asp?newsid=19857
WORLDVIEW Britain’s Turnaround On Terrorism:
British Prime Minister Tony Blair, on a visit to India as current president of the EU council, called on the world to send “a clear and unified message” against inciting terrorism. That declaration was made at a news conference on September 7 with Blair seated alongside his Indian counterpart.
Given recent and repeated attempts by Blair’s man-on-the-spot in Kathmandu to soft soap terrorism, the British premier’s frank assertions in New Delhi indeed made for welcome reading. They include his categorical statement that there is “absolutely no justification or excuse” for terrorism.
The plight of Muslims in Britain, post 7/7, has been well sketched in a Time magazine piece by Yasmin Alibhai-Brown, a newspaper columnist, entitled Living with the Bombs. One particularly evocative excerpt is this: “Shock initially united the city."
In keeping with the new zero-tolerance mood towards terrorism in Britain, it is also notable that the security service MI5 has drawn up a list of the country’s 50 “preachers of hate” who face expulsion from Britain under tough new anti-terrorism laws. It is within such a context that Blair’s anti-terrorism pronouncements in India must be assessed.
http://www.gorkhapatra.org.np/pageloader.php?file=2005/09/14/editorial/editorial1
Reputed Terrorist Al-Zarqawi Still Shrouded in U.S.-Fed Myth, Mystery:
The Bush administration’s nearly constant focus on suspected Jordanian terrorist Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi as the source of its problems in Iraq has helped turn the Islamic fundamentalist into a figure of mythic proportions, but despite the hype and hyperbole surrounding the mysterious Al-Zarqawi, little is actually known about the man or his alleged misdeeds.
According to British journalist and author Jason Burke, who has reported extensively from the Middle East for the UK Observer, Al-Zarqawi grew up in a poor Jordanian family with Bedouin roots.
Al-Zarqawi reportedly fled Afghanistan in late 2001 while the country was under invasion by the US and UK. Several reports say Al-Zarqawi spent much of 2002 moving back and forth from Iran to Iraq. The Bush administration claims that Al-Zarqawi set up a poison and explosives training camp in northern Iraq, working alongside members of Ansar Al-Islam (supporters of Islam). However, that organization, heavily targeted during the 2003 US invasion, was vocally and militantly opposed to Saddam Hussein.
Michael Ware, an Australian journalist working in Iraq for Time magazine, reported in late 2004 that Al-Zarqawi’s profile within the Islamic fundamentalist movement has grown due to his reputed ability to organize spectacular car bomb attacks and his skill at using the internet to disseminate videos showing what appear to be the beheadings of foreign contractors kidnapped and murdered by Al-Zarqawi’s associates.
http://newstandardnews.net/content/?action=show_item&itemid=1546
Terrorists unite to plot Iraqi civil war .
Trish, say it ain't so, is this you reading ANOTHER
Anti Bush Ranter?
I didn't read everyone's comments but I would like to remind you that Iraq has been off the headlines for almost a week now. Seems like there is also a possibility that, besides low resources with less training and trying to get the most bang for their buck, they were probably going for the spectacular in order to get their "cause" back on the front page.
These guys are quite media savy. I think if they'd been able to do something here in the post Katrina disaster, they would have.
The Fear Grows in Damascus .
Analysts believe that Assad canceled his New York trip for two reasons: U.S. officials couldn't guarantee his entourage immunity from arrest if Mehlis and the Lebanese government issued a warrant, and, more important, he feared the risk of turmoil in Damascus if he were to leave now.
What an invigorating spectacle, to watch as the rule of law squeezes the arrogant men who treated Lebanon as their private fief. Some of them are in jail; others are trying to cut deals; still others are said to have defected to other countries. Credit goes to Lebanon's new government, which was tough and united in making the surprise arrests, at dawn on Aug. 30, of the security chiefs. Rumors are spinning in Beirut and Damascus about which members of the Assad regime are ratting out their friends. A Paris-based newsletter, Intelligence Online, wrote that a Syrian intelligence colonel had defected to France with information about the Slovakian-made explosives that allegedly killed Hariri.
Doug,
on the OT star explosion:
They know how far because the way the light was shifted. The greater the red shift, the farther. They can tell how much it is shifted by checking where absorption lines change to.
c4: And remember - the Palestinians were pro-Saddam.
No, Iraq got it's only support from the Palestinians. The Scuds launched on Israel were a gift every Palestinian appreciated. The support wasn't for "one man" - Saddam - it was for the Iraqi people.
and for the rape of Kuwait! those pali's can back real winners...
Presbypoet,
But "the Dawn of the Universe?"
...seems a bit of a stretch,
even for a poet,
much less a physicist!
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