A car bomb destroyed a bus carrying 11 Iranian Revolutionary Guards. Although Iranian authorities blamed it on "drug traffickers", Bill Roggio is skeptical of coincidences. The Associated Press reports:
A car loaded with explosives blew up Wednesday near a bus carrying members of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards in southeastern Iran, killing 11 of them and wounding 31. An al-Qaida-linked Sunni militant group reportedly claimed responsibility. ... But officials did not confirm the claim, blaming "insurgents and drug-traffickers."
Well, maybe. But Bill Roggio wondered whether there wasn't some connection between the event and Iran's activities in Iraq.
While there is no indication the U.S. was behind this attack, the nature of the target (IRGC soldiers, of which Qods Forces is a subset of), the mode of attack (a carbomb, like those used in Iraq) and the timing (during heightened tensions with Iran over their supplying weapons to the Iraqi insurgency) send a powerful message to the Iranian government, Or a taste of their own medicine.
Even if there was no US involvement in a "deniable and covert" operation in Iran, the nature of distributed terrorism means that anyone can play. Drug traffickers or an al-Qaida Sunni group may truly have been behind the bombing. After all who could have guessed that Iran would support both Sunni and Shi'ite groups against each other in Iraq? Warfare was once the province of states, but as al-Qaeda proved, probably to the cost of everyone on the planet, small extremist organizations can wage combat effectively. In discussing portable and deniable nuclear weapons, I noted that there was no reason in principle why anti-Jihadi or anti-anyone extremist groups couldn't come up with them. After all, why should a bunch of Pakistani scientists be able to come up with something that an equivalent group of Indian or Israeli private citizens couldn't.
Bill Roggio is probably correct in thinking that coincidences like this are really suspicious. But it would probably be more frightening if none of the secret services all around the world knew who blew up the IGRC bus.