News Snippets
Some news items of interest. President Bush warns against Syria trying to get back into Lebanon. The FBI is taking steps to meet Hezbollah sleepers in America should they go active. An Israeli military historian is quoting sources in Lebanon who suggest Hezbollah has been so hurt it is putting out feelers that it is willing to pull back to the Litani River. Also, Tony Blair's website has this statement. (Does that make Tony Blair a blogger?)
This situation therefore began with acts of extremism by militant groups that were, as the G8 said unanimously, without any justification and of course were designed to provoke the very response that followed.
In the communiqué issued by the G8, we refer to and condemn the activities of the extremist groups and, more elliptically, "those that support them". For most of us at the G8, we can be less elliptical. Hezbollah is supported by Iran and Syria, by the former in weapons, weapons incidentally very similar if not identical to those used against British troops in Basra; by the latter, in many different ways and by both financially.
posted by wretchardthecat at 7/18/2006 05:08:00 PM
128 Comments:
"For most of us at the G8, we can be less elliptical. Hezbollah is supported by Iran and Syria, by the former in weapons, weapons incidentally very similar if not identical to those used against British troops in Basra; by the latter, in many different ways and by both financially."
I do believe that Tony is rather pissed at Iran... and that this comment is an open expression to the mullahs of that fact. They are being put on notice.
HB pulls back and regroups in the Bekaa, holds off an Israeli ground assualt, politicly.
Give the buffer zone to the Lebanonese Army, which, like the Iraqi Security Force, the Mohammedans have already or readily can infiltrate.
It will all amount to sound and fury, not much change in the Strategic picture, though Israel's tactical position would be improved.
Mr Snow said 1, 3 or 5 days of further combat could be contemplated scheduleing, but then ...
The Guardian quotes "diplomatic sources" as saying the US has told Israel it has one more week to inflict damage on Hezbollah before America joins the call for a ceasefire.
I'm not sure whether to credit this Guardian report, but efforts to slam on the brakes are probably afoot.
Initiallly the Israeli announced one or two weeks, they'll get the two weeks.
Ms Rice said 5 days, Mr Snow said 5 days. Mr Bush said Syria best watch out. Bet they do.
For a while
While ill-advised, a line through Sidon-Jazzin-Al Qirawn is a much better bet.
There is no substitute for victory.
Looks like this is going to end up with the status quo.
With Syria and Iran unaffected and Hiz allowed to "pull back" we'll be right back here in three months.
The Lebanese Army is a paper tiger. It is ripe for infiltration and corruption by the Hizzles my nizzles.
As earlier posters have said: With the buffer zone, the missle ranges will get longer.
This leaves all the players in place with a cratered southern Lebanon. The clowns at the CFR, Foggy Bottom and the UN will be cracking open the Chivas tonight to celebrate another resounding success.
Carl, Tony has domestic concerns has has to deal with, just like Bush here in the States, and Howard in Australia.
I do find reports of a "time-frame" for Israel's assault to be interesting, in so far that if true, they prove Israel's efforts to destroy Lebanese infrastructure to be all in all a bad idea. The Israeli's won't be able to capitalize on it, and they catch the diplomatic flak for doing it. A lose-lose.
It's still a "Long War", allen.
No victory is planned on that time frame, just stumbled into, over time. If there's luck, if Mr Carter had been reelected, we'd have surrendered Latin America and the Middle East, to Mr Castro & Ortega and Mohammedans, respectedly.
The Cold War was just an election away from goin' south, in 1980.
There are greater dangers that what comes next in Damascus, after the Doc is castrated, militarily and politicly. This opportunity will pass, as predicted, or not.
The Long War is still the wrong war.
carl o. witz wrote:
Does anyone understand the Brits? They blow hot and cold. One minute they are our resolute allies, the next they are appeasing weasels.
{eye roll}Who would have thought that the land of Chamberlain and Churchill would be like that?{/eye roll}
Any one hear of any Offensive Ops our 130,000 troops in Iraq are up to?
How goes Ramadi?
Is the ratline still flowin'?
How go the "incidents" in the Triangle, troopers are still dying in ones and twos, it seems.
How about the situation in Baghdad, the street battles still rage, it seems.
24 hours of respite a week ago, a flash in the pan.
The Mr Maliki's reconciliation plan is workin slow at best, if it's workin at all.
Maybe sending the Kurds to patrol Baghdad will fix it.
I have two questions. I suppose time will provide an answer.
1. What will Iran do if they see Hizbullah being trounced and their missile batteries destroyed? Will they sit back and watch, or will they get more actively involved? How would they do that?
2. The big push by most western governments is to evacuate their citizens from Lebanon. We have a situation where large numbers of people are to be gathered in widely publicized places. Will anyone take advantage of the situation and how? Boom, one group gone. Everyone else listen. This will happen again if you do not pressure Israel to stop. Or something like that.
This situation is extremely dangerous for one simple reason. On one side at least, the ones pulling the strings are not affected in any way. They can possibly do anything with impunity. How far will Iran go to reach their goal in this instance?
Derek
Iran, will wait a few weeks and then resupply the Hezbollah through Syria. No big deal.
> Does anyone understand the Brits?
Blair is a leftist, so even though he "gets it" about terror, he has the same difficulty of getting support for wars that a Democratic president would (or Senator Joe Lieberman.
Blair is weak politically and it is already expected that he will be replaced as prime minister by his own party. He is involved in possible scandal.
Iran feels it is a winner in Lebanon, even with Hizbollah losing. That is because the perception that Israel is using excessive force and slaughtering civilians will lead, in Iran's hope, to a regional conflict with the Christians / Jews against the Moslems. As Iran's president said today:
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Tuesday promised a "rejoicing" for Muslims in the Middle East "soon," the Islamic Republic News Agency reported.
Speaking to university officials in the town of Mashhad, Ahmadinejad said the "volcano of rage" at the "arrogant powers" was "on the verge of eruption."
Referring to escalating violence in Lebanon and northern Israel, he was quoted as saying, "The Zionists themselves have realized that they have launched a risky move and are aware that the flame of the fury of the regional states will set them ablaze."
It could be all about the Exodus.
Blondes, brunettes, males and females, not at all stereotypical "Arabs".
Thousands of folk, passport holders of EU and US, depart enmass, for their respective "Homelands".
To be billed later.
Does not take much of an imagination to see the possibilities for moving a bunch of agents, quickly, for Phase II.
This is from an Israeli article about how Iran will react to the Lebanon conflict.
Link
Syria, Iran are comfortable watching from the sidelines as Lebanon burns
Iran may not want to get very involved in this round of fighting and may leave Hizbullah to fend for itself - willing to sacrifice some of its interests in Lebanon at this stage to make headway in its real objective of obtaining nuclear weapons, Maj.-Gen. (res.) Giora Eiland told Israel Radio on Tuesday...
This much is clear: Syria and Iran may have a hand in Hizbullah's attacks, but they are quite happy watching events unfold from the sidelines - together...
If Hizbullah attempts to draw Damascus into the fray, can we expect Teheran to jump in as well?
Not a chance, analysts say.
Syria has no interest in sharing Lebanon's fate, and Iran has too much to risk...
Experts agree that Teheran is gleeful over the conflict - which averts international attention from its nuclear aspirations...
According to Menashri, the timing of Hizbullah's July 12 attack on Israel leaves no room for doubt - Teheran was involved in the attacks.
July 12, he said, was the day that Iran was supposed to address its uranium enrichment program or face sanctions from the West.
"On July 11, Iran declined to address the West's demands, and the issue was returned to the UN Security Council." Iranian foreign policy chief Ali Larijani went home through Damascus, and the kidnapping happened the following day...
However, Menashri believes that, like Damascus, Iran is not interested in entering the fray.
"They are interested in escalation," he said, "but to a degree. It is in their interest to sit in Teheran and have Hizbullah fight for them."
According to Heller, Iran has been encouraging Syria to get more involved, but Damascus has demurred.
"There are reports," he said, "that the Syrians said no to Iranian offers of help because they don't want to be attacked by Israel."
Heller added that Syria and Iran understand that "If they got into trouble, no one would come to their aid."
up close and personal:
a tranzi meets the real world...
___________________________________
"Watching bombs from the bar -- a holiday in Beirut" - Paul Hughes - (Reuters)
"This following is a first-person account by Paul Hughes, until recently Reuters' bureau chief in Tehran, of being caught on holiday in Beirut when Israel's air strikes began."
Tue Jul 18, 2006 8:45am ET
http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=reutersEdge&storyID=2006-07-18T132006Z_01_L18321488_RTRUKOC_0_US-WITNESS-BEIRUT.xml&archived=False&src=071806_1340_ARTICLE_PROMO_also_on_reuters
Here are more indications that the air interdiction is having some effect. But will it be enough to call it quits?
Captain's Quarters, quoting the Jersualem Post says the IDF estimates that Hezbollah's "attacks have dropped almost 75% over the past week, dropping from 150 a day to 40, and the IDF believes it can drop that number to zero"
If I was Israel, I'd tell Mr. Bush that I'd put a timeframe on my withdrawal at the same time he puts a timeframe on his withdrawal from Iraq.
All of the arguments about NOT putting a timeframe on pulling out of Iraq are just as pertinent as NOT giving Israel "one more week". What a stupid suggestion. So then the Hiz's figure all they have to do is hunker down and wait it out for seven more days?
The general form of the Litani River fall-back line conjured a vision of the Union Line at Gettysburg, albeit on a far greater scale. The Israeli Army will pay attention to the similarities I assume.
Now the line I have proposed would break the continuity of the Litani, strategically fracturing Hezbollah’s internal lines of communication. Although the remnants of Hezbollah will be more concentrated on each side of the fracture, traversing the seam will permit Israeli and Lebanese Army monitoring.
Obviously, the Litani/Bekaa Valley segment of the new Hezbollah line is another matter entirely. Remaining unmolested, it must agree to be regularly monitored. In the event of future hostility, the Valley’s southern exit could be quickly sealed; thereby, forcing commercial travel to the north end of the watershed.
By forcing Hezbollah’s defensive line further north as I contemplate, sufficient room for maneuver is created within Lebanon to permit an enveloping wing from the west by IDF, if called for, without risking the violation of Syrian territory. Retention of the Golan serves much the same theoretical purpose has the “Round Tops” did at Gettysburg.
Just some thoughts, none as appealing as the defeat of Syria in conjunction with the destruction of Hezbollah.
The Guardian is very far left, so they are just making up a story about the leftist fantasy that the US controls Israel like a puppet.
The same stories about one week circulate in Israeli publications too. I think that the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia etc. are playing a game of sounding like they are considering the cease fire in order to keep the West together and to lower anger in "the Arab street". They will just have one stalling tactic after another like waiting for the UN diplomat's report later this week, then waiting for Condi's trip, etc. Anything that gives Israel another day helps the cause.
Meanwhile, back at the Ranch...
BAGHDAD, July 17 -- Masked attackers with heavy machine guns mounted on pickup trucks slaughtered at least 40 people in a crowded market area south of Baghdad on Monday, hurling grenades to blow up merchants at their counters and shooting down mothers as they fled with their children, witnesses and authorities said.
The military-style assault on unarmed civilians in the mostly Shiite city of Mahmudiyah lasted 30 minutes and was vicious even for a country besieged daily by bombs and coldblooded attacks. At one point, the assailants entered a cafe and shot dead seven men -- most of them elderly -- while they were having tea, said Maythan Abdul Zahad, a police officer. He said the gunmen stepped on their victims' heads to keep them still.
"Only those who escaped and ran were able to survive," Zahad said in Najaf, where he later traveled to bury a cousin killed in the attack. "They did not spare anyone. Not the children. Not the elderly. The Iraqi army did not interfere."
The massacre left the central shopping street in Mahmudiyah a charred war zone of gutted vehicles and blackened and smoldering tin-roofed shops. Some hospital authorities put the death toll at more than 70; most of the victims were Shiites.
Sunni Arab insurgents asserted responsibility for the slaughter, calling it retaliation for attacks against their own in surging sectarian violence. Hundreds of people have been killed since July 9, when suspected Shiite gunmen carried out a daytime massacre of at least 40 residents in Baghdad's mostly Sunni neighborhood of al-Jihad.
This seems to be the Israel military's damage assessment and outlook.
The Israel Defense Forces estimate that 10-14 more days are necessary in order to meet the military aims of the operation in Lebanon.
According to General Staff estimates, it is possible to greatly intensify the scope of the attacks against the Hezbollah rockets, with special emphasis on their longer-range weapons, as well as strikes against senior members of the group's operational arm...
A senior military source said on Tuesday that Israel seeks "to significantly weaken Hezbollah but not crush it." He said that "it is impossible to crush a popular, religious movement."
Assessments vary within the IDF regarding the effect that the assault on Hezbollah is having on the organization's morale, but Chief of Staff Dan Halutz is among those officers who believe that the first signs of cracks in the group are evident.
Link
Tom Bevan at his blog states the case that "Iraq Continues to Boil"
He makes a point that is on the spot
"But without improved security in Baghdad, there's no telling how long the fragile coalition government can hold up against the constant pressure."
In the past few hours (Israeli night time), there have been reports of extensive bombing of the Hizbollah bunker complex in Beirut, including apparently larger bombs than were used in the past. Some lit up the night to make it look like day.
Several stories have indicated that Hizbollah senior leadership including the top dog, are in those bunkers. I always assumed that the Israelis didn't finish them off because the Israeli hostages were there as well.
If Hizbollah chief Nasrallah is really down there, and Israel has finally killed him, that would change things.
Here's one American who is going to dance in the street when the Israelis bomb the hell out of the Iranian proxy pukes wherever they are.
Can't wait for the USAF to drop some MOABS on the stinking Mullahs. Looking forward to the fireworks. Ahmedinejab can rot in hell and his country with it.
In Iraq I always believed that things had to get worse before they got better. The Shiites have now responded to the civilian killing which the Sunnis have always been doing. Eventually the two sides will need to make the decision if they want a full civil war or a truce.
The situation today seems to be one of flux. Hezbollah is promising to rain 500 missiles down on Tel-Aviv, saying the war has not yet begun. The IDF, perhaps on the urging of politicians, looks like it could simply declare victory and stop. Is the war contracting or escalating? The tides are pulling either way. The next 48 hours should bring more information.
1,500 dead in Baghdad's morgue last month, seems they are well on their way to match June in July.
That equals, more than, total US KIA for the whole effort, the Iraqi will accumulate the total in Baghdad in 60 days, or less.
Mr Maliki best get a move on.
Syria and Tehran, gettin' their asses whipped, well, aren't they?
"Hezbollah is promising to rain 500 missiles down on Tel-Aviv, saying the war has not yet begun..."
Time to warm up the B-52s and rain some real iron on the Mullahs !!!
nahncee said:
If I was Israel, I'd tell Mr. Bush that I'd put a timeframe on my withdrawal at the same time he puts a timeframe on his withdrawal from Iraq.
I totally agree, this is a devastating point, however, Li'l Satans are not supposed to talk back to Great Satans.
"Great Satans"
If America acted like Satan, Iran would be nothing more than an enormous radioactive crater.
... Not a bad idea, really !
Wretchard wrote:
The situation today seems to be one of flux. Hezbollah is promising to rain 500 missiles down on Tel-Aviv, saying the war has not yet begun. The IDF, perhaps on the urging of politicians, looks like it could simply declare victory and stop
I'm sure Olmert could give his "Mission Accomplished" speech any time he wants to, but actually he's got the tiger by the tail right now and daren't let go until Hizbollah is neutralized or a third party intervenes.
The left is fantasizing about the one week deadline. Bush and Condi Rice have said again and again in various ways that Hizbollah must go. Bush has never waivered at all, in fact some people in Israel's cabinet seem softer than Bush about it!
"Tiger by the Tail"
It's the Iranians who don't understand that they're holding our tail. Ask the Japanese and Germans of two generations ago.
The enemy of America is IRAN, IRAN, IRAN and their demented religion from hell.
Haaretz is reporting the need of 10 – 14 days before IDF operations are complete.
A senior military source said on Tuesday that Israel seeks "to significantly weaken Hezbollah but not crush it." He said that "it is impossible to crush a popular, religious movement."
Wow! And I thought Israel had first rate public schools. Well, in the interest of enlightening these busy men may I suggest that a short study of the Cathari of Languedoc would quickly disabuse them of their historic ignorance. Religious movements, such as the thuggee and the Cathari can be not only crushed, but exterminated.
All I am saying, is, “Give Peace a chance.”
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/
spages/
739372.html
“IDF: We need two weeks to end Lebanon operation”
Link
Here's a fresh article about Nasrallah and the bunker from one pilot who bombed it. He sure sounds confident that Nasrallah is down there.
Pilot who bombed Nasrallah's bunker: 'We will get them all'
"We will get them all in the end," Capt. A, one of the pilots who bombed Hizbullah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah's underground bunker Sunday night, declared on Monday, minutes before boarding an F-16I fighter jet on his way to another sortie over Lebanon.
On Saturday night, the IAF bombed and destroyed Nasrallah's home and office in the neighborhood of Dahiya in southern Beirut. Dahiya, a high-ranking IDF officer told The Jerusalem Post on Monday, was a Hizbullah stronghold and only terrorists affiliated with Hizbullah were allowed in and out. On Monday, the IAF continued to strike an underground bunker in Dahiya which was believed to be Nasrallah's current hideout.
"It is a closed-in terror capital," the officer said of Dahiya. "Only card-carrying Hizbullah operatives are allowed inside after passing through an armed checkpoint."
Nasrallah, the officer said, had been holed up in the bunker ever since the IAF began bombing Beirut last week. "He has not seen the light of day," a senior Military Intelligence officer told the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on Monday.
IAF fighter jets from Squadron 101 have been running daily bomb raids on the bunker, the main Hizbullah nerve center. Since two soldiers were kidnapped in a Hizbullah attack along the northern border last Wednesday, the squadron has bombed hundreds of targets from the Hizbullah bunker to bridges, Katyusha rocket launchers and weapons warehouses. The IAF has been using bunker-busting missiles in its air raids on the Hizbullah bunker.
"The public should know that the air force is working hard and achieving the goals it has set for itself even though Katyusha rockets are falling in Israel," Capt. A. said. "The public should be calm... we will get them all [Hizbullah leaders] in the end, wherever they may be, since no terrorist has immunit
allen said:
Retention of the Golan serves much the same theoretical purpose has the “Round Tops” did at Gettysburg
Theoretical? Tell that to Kemper's Brigade on July 3rd when they were getting broadsided by six guns on Little Round Top.
for freedom
The enemy of America is IRAN, IRAN, IRAN and their demented religion from hell.
Naw. The Iranian people are just as awesome as the American and Israeli people; children of Abraham all of them, some by blood, some by faith. It's the dang leaders all the way around who suck.
Desert Rat wrote:
Thousands of folk, passport holders of EU and US, depart enmass, for their respective "Homelands". To be billed later. Does not take much of an imagination to see the possibilities for moving a bunch of agents, quickly, for Phase II.
Well with a 30 lb weight limit for luggage, after they pack their suicide belts that doesn't leave much room for a toothbrush or aftershave (not that they ever use those things).
wu wei,
with all due respect to the israeli hostages, if you can take out the top hezbollah leadership, they have to go. they knew what they were getting into when they joined the IDF. Look at this way, the IDF loses two guys on a mission that took out the Hezbollah. Not a bad ratio.
teresita; 7:39 PM
As you know, the absence of Stuart's cavalry placed the Army of Northern Virginia in the predicament of an elderly gentleman wandering through the forest with one lens of his bi-focals broken. Consequently, by most reliable accounts, the opposing armies touched by chance, more than by design. Had barefoot Confederates not chosen to enter the town in the hope of requisitioning shoes, events might have shaken out otherwise.
As you know, even with the battle drawn, it took both armies some time to apprehend the terrain and discover the enormous value of the Round Tops. Indeed, so muddled was the battle at its outset, that parties of both armies had been physically on the heights for a look see, only to leave. Initially, neither side seemed terribly impressed.
Once leadership had been apprised of the terrain, possession of the Round Tops became of paramount importance.
Longer story short, much blood was spilled on and around the hills in the effort to establish incontestable possession. They came to prove their worth.
With reference to the Golan, I should have said, I suppose, "Theoretically, the Golan may have the same strategic importance as the Round Tops had at Gettysburg." Pardon any misunderstanding.
Sarah said:
With all due respect to the israeli hostages, if you can take out the top hezbollah leadership, they have to go. they knew what they were getting into when they joined the IDF.
They didn't have a choice, however. Israel has automatic conscription from age 19 to 23.
Look at this way, the IDF loses two guys on a mission that took out the Hezbollah. Not a bad ratio.
The Jews don't hold life cheap like the Islamists and their plans for an orgy in the afterworld. After the Unspeakable happened in Europe they don't talk about ratios.
The Iranian people are just an awesome a bunch of assholes. A lot of them love their Mullahs.
Give them the plastic keys to paradise and they'll run at the machine guns and be expedited to Heaven.
The Mullahs make sure their women stay ignorant and wear burkhas. I bet that behind closed doors it's their wives who tell them what to do.
I know it's mandatory, but when you join the IDF you know there's a chance you'll get captured or killed.
They should do everything they can to rescue them.
But, if they have a chance to take out Nasrallah and the top leadership and they bail because they might get their own guys in the process, that's inexcusable to me.
> with all due respect to the israeli hostages, if you can take out the top hezbollah leadership, they have to go.
I agree totally, but Israel is very weak when it comes to hostages, sometimes willing to trade thousands of prisoners for one or two of them. Even with all that happened, today someone in their cabinet said they'd probably swap prisoners when this is all over! And the hostage's parents are all over the prime minister because it is against Israel tradition not to give up almost anything for hostages.
It could be a fatal weakness in a country so small and with so many enemies.
allen said:
Consequently, by most reliable accounts, the opposing armies touched by chance, more than by design. Had barefoot Confederates not chosen to enter the town in the hope of requisitioning shoes, events might have shaken out otherwise.
Gettysburg was a natural road hub more or less at the center of Lee's spread out forces and roughly in the vicinity (maybe a little to the west) of where Meade was fixing to give battle. (General Patton would have picked the town if he had been alive, he memorized road maps of Europe between the Wars and always assigned more importance to the layout of lines of transportation than to physical geography). In other words, the network of roads converging on Gettysburg essentially predestined the battle to occur there.
If the Israelis are willing to trade a few of their own for a thousand ragheads, that seems to correlate favorably with the realities and the valor of the ragheads.
Looking forward to the next USAF bombing mission over Iran. Nuke'em !
Civil War Analogy:
"General W T Sherman, the scourge of the South, made his point: There existed 300,000 fanatics in the South who knew nothing but hunting, drinking, gambling and dueling, a class who benefited from slavery and would rather die than work for a living. To end the war, Sherman stated on numerous occasions these 300,000 had to be killed."
Scale this up to 68000000 Iranians, and you know what? The next General Sherman of the 21st Century is going to have to kill at least a million Iranian fanatics.
Send them all to Hell!!
teresita,
Lee, as I recall, actually had hoped to reach Harrisburg, the state capitol.
More Civil War Analogies:
On a World-Wide level, the Islamists love slavery and want to perpetuate it. Islamics actively promote slavery and the subjugation women as an inferior class.
Time to destroy the evil Islamic Fascists !!
error 6:57 PM
should be "envelopment from the east by the IDF"
Give War a chance !!
Who is the enemy?
The ultimate war-loving religion is Islam. Today this demented movement is on the march. Their vanguard army resides in certain countries such as Iran, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. Since the Iranian revolution the tip of the Islamic spear has been the Mullahs of Iran, Shiites. Close second has been their competing Sunni scum-brothers and the Al-Qaeda crowd. Occasionally they'll make a truce or even help out their other bastard Islamic spinoffs. Each Islamic spinoff wants to outdo the other in their production of mayhem, enslavement and destruction.
Welcome to the New World Caliphate!
A wanker is a jerk off.
Thank God for Hesbollah
They and their Iranian supporters have done us a great big favor. They have clarified and cleared away all ambiguity for all to see. They have done so on several fronts:
No impartial observer can now doubt the Iranian influence in the GWOT. They are the obvious self-proclaimed fountainhead of terror, daily earning their bones.
Prior to this "blessing", there was another tedious moral equivalency argument from the Left, that if other countries can have nuclear weapons, why not Iran? It just ain't fair!
The mullahs supplied the answer. If Iran gets them, they have the technology, the motivation and the testicuar fortitude to use them. Iran always bragged it had 40,000 martyrs locked, loaded and crazed. Paying attention? When. Not if. When Iran gets nuclear weapons they and their lunatics will use them. They have the means and the motivation.
All roads lead to Teheran. Iran will not be ignored, negotiated away, molified, modified or bought off with tax free, duty free, most favored nation or any pussilanimous incentive being proffered by the West. They will get nuclear. When nuclear. They go nuclear.
Islam is the problem. It is not a congenial, to be embraced expression of the floral arrangement of human diversity. It is a nightmare out of "Allah in Wonderland" a Mad Hatter's tea party of deranged twisted, crazed killers. Did you get the wake up call?
The Iranians through Hezbollah have unveiled their vision and issued the mission statement. Clarity of purpose and motivation are present in their overseas agents. They say they will destroy Israel, The West, The Great Satan and yes, they mean it. Thank you Hesbollah.
All the terrorists need, Teresita, is box cutters.
The people are the danger, not what they carry out of Lebanonn with them.
In total, maybe 30,000 people will be evacuated. All offocal, and all going "home" to safety. If 1% were HB agents, that'd be a cadre of 300 agents dispersed across the EU & US.
Don't need to carry weapon in their hands, the weapons are in their heads.
Given the lessons we have from past conflicts, airpower is extremely ineffective even against a conventional army/economy (Edward Luttwak argues in “Strategy” the the Allied bombing of Nazi Germany actually increased the German economy’s war potential); I find it next to impossible to believe that the Israeli air campaign against Lebanon is causing even the slightest problems for Hizbollah. On the contrary, it is most likely empowering them. Ironically, the country which produced Martin Van Creveld is hopeless in fighting a Fourth Generational Warfare non-state entity. The central government in Lebanon is weakened; westernized moderates are fleeing the country for Europe, youths who two weeks ago were interested in the latest pop music are now volunteering in droves to fight for Hizbollah; and the bombardment is mostly targeting civilian factories| ensuring decades of economic misery – and even more recruits for Hizbollah.
Israel switched gears in its military campaign against Lebanon Monday and Tuesday, launching a series of debilitating air strikes against privately owned factories throughout the country and dealing a devastating blow to an economy already paralyzed by a week of hits on residential areas and crucial infrastructure.
The production facilities of at least five companies in key industrial sectors - including the country's largest dairy farm, Liban Lait; a paper mill; a packaging firm and a pharmaceutical plant - have been disabled or completely destroyed. Industry insiders say the losses will cripple the economy for decades to come.
"I think the picture will be much worse than we can possible imagine when the whole thing ends, but the direct damage from yesterday's attacks to the industrial sector alone will take years to recover from," said Wajid al-Bisri, the vice-president of the Lebanese Association of Industrialists
Israel, with its insistence on viewing this conflict through the lenses of a conventional intra-state battle, is impotent against Hizbollah. The Israeli military know it and are now producing these propaganda pieces in order to justify to their internal public opinion the coming end of the campaign, which will leave Hizbollah in a much stronger position than before the conflict started, just like the invasion of Iraq has greatly increased Iran’s power in the Persian Gulf region.
All political momentum is being lost. The big story now is the Americans who are inconvienced by not having immediate limousine and executive jet service back to the USA. There is the equivalent of an entire division of Americans spread over Lebanon in a war zone whithout an active airport and no US issue magic carpet has appeared to take them home. No question or discussion about who else will be in that group. No mention of any potentialy radicalized Hesbollah that got a magic US Passport by marrying some foolish US woman who is no longer in the picture. There are also the scenes of wounded and dead little girls being rushed to ambulances. Does this administration know how to get ahead of anything?
2164th,
What if the US has information that says the Hizzes are going to target the ships full of our refugees with those big missles they've been holding back? Would you rush to evacuate, or wait for Israel to pound them some more?
We couldn't have been so far in the know that we could pre-emptively have asked all 25K to pack up and leave, back on July 1.
geoffgo, I think I may have not made my opinion clear. I agree with you. My exasperation is about the lack of explanation as to the logisitical nightmare involved in the extraction, and the administration allowing the media to portray it the way they are. People are clueless as to how difficult the probem is, and the news reports do not focus on that. There is no pre-emptive strike against the political opportunists that will misrepresent the problem. Once again this administartion has no clue as to how to get in front of the story.
Referring back to an earlier thread, Hoist With One's Own Petard, and the issue of precision bombing vs morale bombing I bet that the Israeli generals are thinking this over constantly.
Assuming that Israel wants to win, for some definition of "win," they certainly have to be considering what makes a legitimate target. Their definition now is certainly looser than many supporters of "Internationl Humanitarian Law" would like. Will it get more lose as this war progresses if they are frustrated by not being able to "win?"
On the one hand I think they have a plan and are probably sticking to it, on the other hand if they conclude that winning requires loosening their definition of a legitimate target they may so loosen.
It seems likely that part of the Israeli strategy is to gradually escalate so as to force civilians to flee from SLeb without killing too many of them. Fewer civilians means more legitimate targets. It also means they might be able to use more morale bombing against the terrorists. If this goes on another week and then a ground invasion is launched perhaps most of the civilians will be gone from SLeb and we might see weapons like daisy cutters or other non-precision weapons come into use. This perhaps has been the plan all along.
5:35,
Iran: We welcome WW3
Syria: We welcome refugees.
Iran's donkey has been eaw-ing throughout this crisis but Syria's Ass-ad has been playing innocent while discreetly pack-muling missiles across the border.
I don't think pinning this on Syria is a bad move (assuming it's part of a thought-out strategy...), and I'm sure Iran will be quick to make up any 'pretext gap' with another Jihaidc pronouncement...
Doubt it, u.p., at D+8
The timeline has always been "a week or two", that's what they'll get.
Even GWB spokes people are putting that time frame to the effort. As had the Israeli
The IDF should be mobilized at D+8, yet they have not become mobile.
rufus, I believe, said the historic norm for degradation of a ground force under air attack is historicly, 18%. Why would this be different? He said that when the IAF said HB effectiveness was down "25%".
If IDF does not roll north, they and US will not know "fer sure".
Times awastin'.
Iran and NorK, Axis of Evil?
You'll must believe that the Mr Bush of '02 hasn't "grown", despite all the evidence to the contrary.
He always was the "compassionate" one, told US so, himself.
"... Bush's open mic night at the G-8 summit is not his use of a common vulgarity, but an exchange between Bush and Tony Blair regarding Syrian dictator Bashar Assad.
BLAIR: What does he think? He thinks that if Lebanon turns out fine, if you get a solution in Israel-Palestine, if Iraq ends in the right way--
BUSH: Yeah, he's through.
BLAIR: He's had it. That's what this whole thing's about. It's the same thing with Iran.
There's been a lot of talk about the cleverness of the Iranians and about what master chess players they are to outmaneuver the Bush administration. But their strategy turns out to be utterly transparent.
So why is no one prepared to do anything to stop it?
Bush followed his exchange with Blair by adding, "I felt like telling Kofi [Annan] to get on the phone with Assad and make something happen."
As we all know, the most fearsome response to an act of war is a phone call from a UN bureaucrat. ..."
We'll deal with these guys, like the US does with terrorists in Iraq, later.
It is after all a "long war"
The quote was from Robert Tracinski, writing at RCP
"What Part of 'War' Don't We Understand?
Mr. Robert D. Kaplan, author of "Imperial Grunts: The American Military on the Ground." writes in the WSJ about
"The Tribal Way of War
Forget Clausewitz: Nations now fight clans driven by pride, vengeance and martial religiosity.
"... Yet the darkest cloud on the 21st-century horizon is big states whose leaders may simply like to fight. Their reasons are tied up with pride, vengeance and martial religiosity and cannot be gratified through negotiations.
What then should we do? The authors quote Sun Tzu, the fourth-century B.C. Chinese theorist of war: "Know your enemy." This book is a good place to start.
The WSJ says You can buy "Insurgents, Terrorists and Militias" from the OpinionJournal bookstore.
Have to name the Enemy, before you can "know" him
Bush is fighting a smart war against our enemies. He won't launch an unprovoked war against Syria or Iran, but wait for them to launch it.
He also will divide and conquer. Since most Moslems and Islamists are peaceful and not the enemies, he'll avoid targeting them but only go after the real terrorists.
It's the same strategy that Israel has used successfully to have peace with and support from Egypt and Jordan, their former bitter enemies. Those peace treaties and alliances have made the people of Israel safer than any amount of killing would have.
Imagine how bad it would have been for Great Britain if they responded to the IRA terrorist bombings by trying to kill every Catholic in Northern Ireland, or even every Catholic world wide because of fear that there was a massive conspiracy.
This is pertinent, but since it's in the WaPo, discount it.
At your own risk of ignorance.
Conservative Anger Grows Over Bush's Foreign Policy
By Michael Abramowitz
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, July 19, 2006; A01
At a moment when his conservative coalition is already under strain over domestic policy, President Bush is facing a new and swiftly building backlash on the right over his handling of foreign affairs.
Conservative intellectuals and commentators who once lauded Bush for what they saw as a willingness to aggressively confront threats and advance U.S. interests said in interviews that they perceive timidity and confusion about long-standing problems including Iran and North Korea, as well as urgent new ones such as the latest crisis between Israel and Hezbollah.
"It is Topic A of every single conversation," said Danielle Pletka, vice president for foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, a think tank that has had strong influence in staffing the administration and shaping its ideas. "I don't have a friend in the administration, on Capitol Hill or any part of the conservative foreign policy establishment who is not beside themselves with fury at the administration." ..."
Just read the posts, by others, at Belmont for confirmation of the meme.
"... Newt Gingrich, who is considering a bid for president, called the administration's latest moves abroad a form of appeasement. "We have accepted the lawyer-diplomatic fantasy that talking while North Korea builds bombs and missiles and talking while the Iranians build bombs and missiles is progress," he said in an interview. "Is the next stage for Condi to go dancing with Kim Jong Il?" he asked, referring to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and the North Korean leader.
"I am utterly puzzled," Gingrich added.
Kenneth Adelman, a Reagan administration arms-control official who is close to Vice President Cheney, said he believes foreign policy innovation for White House ended with Bush's second inaugural address, a call to spread democracy throughout the world.
"What they are doing on North Korea or Iran is what [Sen. John F.] Kerry would do, what a normal middle-of-the-road president would do,"
I've always thought highly of Mr Newt.
As for Mr Bush's "Shull & Bones" buddy, Mr Kerry, those two are like peas in the pod.
Just listen to Ms Rice and Mr Snow.
I know that both of them are "troubled" and "biased" sources, but that's what they say, too.
w.w.'s cut and pastes of Israeli announcemnets had that same timeline, early on.
Don't doubt them, especially now, that the IDF is mobilized.
It's already getting late on D+8.
I thought it was very interesting that hezb missles were characterized as a deterrent against Israeli attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities.
Could the Israel be clearing the board prior to an attack on Iran? What other "deterrent " does Iran possess that are within reach of Israeli power?
There are over 300 publicly stated, by US, identified nuclear infrastructure targets in Iran. Many are "dug in".
The IAF is running 500 sorties a day, and by their own account, cannot destroy HB.
Israel destroying Iran's nuclear capacity is a conventional pipe dream. If they were to go nuclear, first, it'd be the "end" of Israel, I believe.
It is Wednesday morning and there is no ceasefire. I stand corrected, having misjudged the willpower of both Mr. Bush and Mr. Olmert: from both, I beg pardon.
Today it is being reported that Dr. Rice is coming to the region on Sunday, reportedly to broker a ceasefire.
For two very cogent analyses of a status quo ceasefire, see:
Goldberg: No Sense in a Ceasefire
Finishing the job.
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=NDI3MTMw
Zjg0ZjAxODJhMzkxYzI0ZGU4YzQ3ZDRlNmU=
Krauthammer: Lebanon: The Only Exit Strategy
Washington Post, by Charles Krauthammer
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/18/AR2006071801379.html
Both articles are care of Lucianne.com
Anticipatory of Cedarford’s certain criticisms of the neocon credentials of both Goldberg and Krauthammer, I will stipulate that both have some Jewish blood.
allen,
the air attacks continue, but the ground campaign, the real deal that would "clear" HB, has yet to cross the first phase line.
If it does not by tomorrow, doubt that it will, at all.
yhn
The missiles and other armament in Syria. Although the C&C may not be quite as solid.
"Wu Wei said...
Bush is fighting a smart war against our enemies. He won't launch an unprovoked war against Syria or Iran, but wait for them to launch it." - 7:17 AM
Much like Jackson and Lee in the Seven Days Battle, Hannibal at Cannae, and Alexander at Gaugamela, would you say?
Oh, with all due respect, if Mr. Bush does not feel sufficiently provoked, when might we reasonably expect to see that?
At NRO there is an article that describes the litney of what was "offered" to Iran, to shut down the cascades.
The author, Andrew C. McCarthy asks
"Whither the Bush Doctrine?"
"The nuclear negotiations with Iran: All carrot, no stick … and no mention of terror."
We're all aboard the Skull & Bones express
Imagine how bad it would have been for Great Britain if they responded to the IRA terrorist bombings by trying to kill every Catholic in Northern Ireland, or even every Catholic world wide because of fear that there was a massive conspiracy.
Killing all of them, at least in Ireland in your example, would be easy. Trying to kill the 5% of them that are fighting us when none of them wears a uniform is what is difficult.
Our rules just weren't designed to deal well with this circumstance. Even the Russians in Chechnya, with fairly loose targeting rules, aren't necessarily winning.
Meyrav Wurmser, is that a Jewish name? Kinda sounds like one, but I'm not sure if it qualifies or disqualifies his opinion, or if that should matter at all.
Israel’s strategic mistake.
"The Address Is in Damascus"
This too at NRO
The truth of Total War as waged against a segment of the general population is reflected in the size of the Jewish populations in Berlin or Dresden, Cairo and Damascus.
Statisticly none existant.
Seems to have worked.
How do we do the same to the terrorists?
We'd estimated the Sunni Insurgency to include about 25,000 bodies, out of a population of 5 Million, .5%
1.5 Billion Islamists, does .5% represent the terrorist pool?
That's 7.5 Million
You can cut off the head,
beat the body to a pulp,
get back on the porch and pay the man
Time's awastin'
According to local reports the firefight *on* the border that left 2 IDF dead and 10 wounded lasted for 3 hours. One causuality was due to friendly fire from an IDF tank.
It does appear that after 8 days of sorties, the IAF has been unsuccessful in imposing even a modest "buffer zone". So much for shaping the battlefield ahead of a deeper ground invasion.
So much for suppressing the rockets, as well.
Drudge's Headline
MASSIVE WAVE OF ROCKETS STRIKE NORTHERN ISRAEL ON DAY 8
If HB really is at 50% effectiveness, as Israel claimed,
they really were the
"A" Team on steroids.
utopia parkway; 8:35 AM
"Trying to kill the 5% of them that are fighting us when none of them wears a uniform is what is difficult."
The operative verb is "trying", which we (the Coalition) are patently failing to do.
It has ALWAYS been the case and remains so today that an unlawful combatant is assumed a spy or assassin. Consequently, summary execution may be imposed upon the captured or observed malefactor.
To eradicate the alleged 25,000 bad guys in Iraq, earlier addressed, 15 such executions per day would have been necessary to reduce that sum to zero, today. This, of course does not contemplate the killing of bad guys in the normal course of battle, which, obviously, would reduce the number of needed executions. Of course, when Syria and Iran are reinforcing/restocking the pool of bad guys, the rate of execution must accordingly rise.
You and I can debate this until the cows come home, but the simple reality, it seems to me, is to kill the right somebodies rather than killing everybody. We need not fear an overreaction by the administration, which is incapable of executing even the very worst bad guys ala Guantanamo.
One day, should we live, we may look back on the idiocy of the policies employed by the Coalition and wonder, "What were they smoking, and when did they smoke it?"
Mr Bush, he's conserving "vital bodily fluids".
We can't do it cause someones been putting salt peter in Bushes water
or fluoride!
Siniora: Gentleman, you can't fight in here! This is a democracy!
DR, thanks for the Wormser link. Wormser tells us what we already know: Damascus, and Teheran, are the source of the problem and fixing the entire problem requires fixing those places.
What he ignores is the HB missiles. Yes, Damascus needs to change, but I don't see any scenario where Israel could simply strongarm Syria or beat it militarily without the HB missiles coming into play. That's what they're there for. To deter Israel from acting against Iran, primarily, and Syria as well.
Israel has to neutralize HB first. This has to work in stages. IMO, The only way things could happen in a different order is if another party would threaten Syria. Say a coalition of the willing or the US acting alone.
Not only the lead front-page headline is concerned with “the Levant,” but the lead editorial on the Op-Ed page too: “THE TROUBLE IN THE LEVANT.” Over on the inside Foreign News page, the main story, datelined Washington, D.C., is: “AMERICAN DISMAY OVER SYRIA.” (Says the story: “The headline ‘French Bomb Damascus’ produced the same feeling of dismay here as did that announcing the arrest of the 16 Polish leaders by Russia a few weeks ago...”)
Syria... Lebanon... bomb Damascus... Egypt, “Irak,” and Palestine... America and Russia also interested... Oh boy. A date plucked at random from 61 years ago, and the names, even some of the issues, are all so drearily familiar. ..."
John Derbyshire writes of Mideast Fatigue
Circles and cycles
Scenes that we've all seen before
u.p.
Well the US forces in Iraq have not massed on the Syrian frontier, at least not in the news. If they were moving or massing, I think we'd hear of it.
In fact if the US Military was going to have any Regional political impact, we'd want the News leaked, to stimulate, worry, Doc Assad.
But no reports.
The US is in the barracks.
We go all that way, spend all the time and money to get in the game, then try to change the rules.
As the Syrians mass near the Golan, the US should be massing on it's local Syrian frontier.
desert rat; 8:35 AM
Thanks for the link. The article was thought provoking.
At this writing, I disagree with Mr. Wurmser’s assessment that the Israeli attack on Lebanon was a “strategic mistake”; such an assessment is reliant upon stasis.
If in the coming days Israel fails to follow through with the destruction of Hezbollah, in detail, then, I will readily concede the point to Mr. Wurmser.
Moreover, since Israel cannot be rid of Hezbollah without also being rid of Syria, Mr. Wurmser will probably be proven correct.
Sad but true.
As Ms Rice goes "wheels up" on her MidEast tour, the boys at Camp Anaconda and Fallujah should head out on a field exercise.
Two or Three Brigades of US Combined Arms moving towards the western deserts of Iraqi frontier, that may have more influence in Damascus than might be imagined by those that support the status que.
Speak softly, but have the stick at the ready. Offensive deterence.
I mean that is the purpose, I've been led to believe, by posters here, past and present, the US military was to have, to increase US influence in the Region.
But cannot be used to even threaten the Baathist facists of Syria. It may complicate the policing of Baghdad.
Heard that across Iraq, over the past two monthsm SIX Thousand people have been killed.
In Israel, less than two dozen, in Lebanon a score or two.
Talk about your collective punishments.
And what Army will provide Security in South Lenabon?
If he results of a US occupation are so unsatisfactory, in so far as securing a ceasefire or forced disarming of militias.
Who will do the job better than the US standard set in Baghdad after three years?
habu_3 wrote:
You conclude with a totally inept and false analogy. One can not compare the moral thesis of Catholism with that of Islam.
Indeed? Is not the moral thesis of Catholicism the Bible? And does not the bible say in Deuteronomy 13:6-9 "If thy brother, the son of thy mother, or thy son, or thy daughter, or the wife of thy bosom, or thy friend, which is as thine own soul, entice thee secretly, saying, Let us go and serve other gods, which thou hast not known, thou, nor thy fathers; Namely, of the gods of the people which are round about you, nigh unto thee, or far off from thee, from the one end of the earth even unto the other end of the earth; Thou shalt not consent unto him, nor hearken unto him; neither shall thine eye pity him, neither shalt thou spare, neither shalt thou conceal him: But thou shalt surely kill him; thine hand shall be first upon him to put him to death, and afterwards the hand of all the people."
teresita,
Indeed indeed. Your premise is wrong. The Church is not a fundamentalist religion. It long ago recognized the dangers in literal lay interpretation. The Church teaches and guides with doctrine. The hierarchy of the Roman Catholic Church has published a teaching document instructing the faithful that some parts of the Bible are not actually true. It pays to be cautious when asserting fact rather than opinion.
Well, rufus, in AZ I saw just today the President approval was minus 12 pts
Rank AZ at 16th in the USA, tied with Birgina, in approval for the President.
Come '08 if the "War" is not done, look for a "deterence" policy to emerge.
In reality it already has begun to.
The opening offer which will be replyed to, 22 Aug 06.
Mr Putin approved that schedule.
Russia is in the G8, with Canada and Italy, but China is not economic powerhouse enough to qualify? Nor India?
An Israeli airstrike Tuesday blew up a convoy of trucks in the Bekaa carrying arms for Hezbollah that were being moved in from Syria, the Israeli military said.
Officials declined to specify the amount or type of weaponry they believed the trucks were carrying, but said the strike triggered enormous secondary explosions, indicating a large arms shipment.
LA Times
http://www.cnn.com/2006/US/07/18/dobbs.july19/index.html
Lou Dobbs has some interesting things to say:
..."And the U.S. government, which wants no part of a cease-fire until Israel is given every opportunity to rescue its kidnapped soldiers and destroy as many Hezbollah and Hezbollah armaments as possible, urges caution in the interest of preserving a nascent and fragile democratic government in Lebanon. Could we be more conflicted?
While the United States provides about $2.5 billion in military and economic aid to Israel each year, U.S. aid to Lebanon amounts to no more than $40 million. This despite the fact that the per capita GDP of Israel is among the highest in the world at $24,600, nearly four times as high as Lebanon's GDP per capita of $6,200."
One of these days, I will learn how to link.
According to that article, Hez have 'formidable Zilzals' up the wazoo. 'Zilzal rockets' and 'Zilzal missiles'.
Rats abandoning the ship, some here called 'em.
'Stead they killed another IDF tank.
Bunkered in depth
Matched the Israeli Special Forces man for man, working "danger close".
The Israeli air superiority negated. Along with direct tank fire.
The Israeli withdrew, according the DEBKA, but we all know about DEBKA and it's poor Israeli sources.
'Rat,
I'm very fond of your posts, as I have learned much from them, and I have tremendous respect for your, and your son's, service to the country. I am profoundly grateful.
Without meaning anything mean-spirited, I think your assessments are becoming altogether too gloomy. (But there is truth in even your gloomiest, so I value them.)
Best,
Jamie Irons
(Running for cover... ;-)
Seems those "death from above" IAF estimates were a bit on the high side.
rufus's estimate of 18% is much more credible, especially after reading habu's debbka link.
Do you ever scratch your head and ask yourself, “What’s going on here; I just don’t understand?”
Well, take heart, neither does US Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Nicholas Burns. (One day I expect them to throw “plenipotentiary” into that title.)
Chester (The Adventures of Chester) http://www.theadventuresofchester.com/
has up the transcript of an NPR interview with Mr. Burns, and a deliciously infuriating bit of work it is, assuming that good-man Chester hasn’t doctored it.
___After failing to describe Hezbollah as a “terrorist” organization, Mr. Burns accuses it of having violated four (4) UN Security Council resolutions. Well, not quite. Oh, good grief, see if you understand Mr. Burns’ statement, “[Hezbollah] has actually broken four U.N. Security Council violations.” OK…How does one break a violation?
___Mr. Burns does not say whether the United States will refer the matter of four Security Council violations to the Security Council for resolution.
___Having stated that Dr. Rice wants a cease-fire when conditions are conducive, how does one have a cease-fire with a terrorist organization in violation of four UN Security Council resolutions? Additionally, Mr. Burns does not say who is supposed to do the negotiating, but surely not Dr. Rice, contrary to US law.
___Absolving the Lebanese of fault by saying, “Lebanon is very much a victim of what Hezbollah has done”, Mr. Burns still wishes to see a cease-fire.
Where are we now? Let’s see: Hezbollah is an undesignated terrorist organization that has usurped the government of Lebanon and has attacked an adjoining nation in violation of four UN Security Council resolutions, committing war crimes in the process. Nevertheless, US Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Nicholas Burns, a State Department “heavy hitter”, councils a negotiated cease-fire. (To all bank robbers reading this, when next trapped in the course of a robbery; demand that Nicholas Burns do the negotiating for the cops.)
___When asked if Hezbollah should be disarmed in southern Lebanon, the hard hitting Mr. Burns said, “Well, I don’t - we have certainly not been that specific…” Take that, Hezbollah!!!
I could go on, but you owe it to yourself and Chester to read the whole thing. Afterward, regurgitate, cleanup, have a drink, and pray to awaken from a bad dream in the morning.
The news is gloomy, the trends are gloomy.
I do not make the stuff up.
Love to see Doc Assad "flip"
Love to see Iran shut down it's cascades and allow the IAEA full and open access. To see HB disarm and convert to a solely political struggle.
The 3,000 a month death toll in Iraq, while the US military watches from behind blast barricades, it is not good for US.
No matter what we "care" about.
I wish there was good news.
Blame Hamandan of the MSM?
These are all just isolated incidents, it's been decided and not over ridden, not even an attempt to define the "War" on a International basis, legally.
By a Republican Congress and President. They are free to do what they think best. They are doing so.
Just cause Mr Newt and I find it puzzling ...
The pictures of the Israeli 155 artillery ammo loads on pallets tells a lot about their objectives based on what they are shooting into Lebanon (or at least invested in). As a not too old artillery guy I recognize the HE (high explosive) and WP (white phosphorus felt wedge I think) projectiles. But just what are the pallet loads of orange/yellow projectiles. The codes have changed not too long ago and few may know the answer as they may be foreign made, though I doubt it.
I think these pallet loads of ammo are some kind of HE and incendiary. Go hi tech.
The pictures of the Israeli 155 artillery ammo loads on pallets tells a lot about their objectives based on what they are shooting into Lebanon (or at least invested in). As a not too old artillery guy I recognize the HE (high explosive) and WP (white phosphorus felt wedge I think) projectiles. But just what are the pallet loads of orange/yellow projectiles. The codes have changed not too long ago and few may know the answer as they may be foreign made, though I doubt it.
I think these pallet loads of ammo are some kind of HE and incendiary. Go hi tech.
The pictures of the Israeli 155 artillery ammo loads on pallets tells a lot about their objectives based on what they are shooting into Lebanon (or at least invested in). As a not too old artillery guy I recognize the HE (high explosive) and WP (white phosphorus felt wedge I think) projectiles. But just what are the pallet loads of orange/yellow projectiles. The codes have changed not too long ago and few may know the answer as they may be foreign made, though I doubt it.
I think these pallet loads of ammo are some kind of HE and incendiary. Go hi tech.
Not only is the Bush administration rock solid against any time limits or cease fire, but Britain has joined in too.
British Prime Minister Tony Blair also rejected calls for Israel to declare a unilateral cease-fire, insisting Hezbollah must first free the captured Israeli soldiers and stop firing rockets at the Jewish state.
Hizbollah is upping the stakes, trying to get the entire Arab world on their side. Israel just ordered a general closure of some areas because of the threat on many suicide bombings. Hizbollah agents forced their way into Arafat's old headquarters; Israel is now laying siege to it, taking it apart with bull dozers. Every few hours Israel reports that it repulsed an attempt by Hizbollah to infiltate the borders. Because of the high risk, factories with hazardous materials in Haifa have been shut down, with the chemicals diluted.
The Holocaust killed a lot of people, but Hitler still lost the war. In fact that was one of the reasons he lost, that his genocide turned many inside and outside of Germany against him.
Also Hitler and Nazism died forever, but because of the war a Jewish state was born. Hitler did not succeed in wiping Judaism out.
The World in Collision
Events in Mumbai, Chechnya, Bosnia, Thailand, Bali, the Philippines and Denmark have nothing more to do with Israel. They have everything to do with the three strains: Wahabism, Iranian radical Islamism and Pakistani-Islamic nationalism. We may argue whether it is just those three. But the point is that the world crisis is no longer about Israel's existence. (From wretched in the Belmont Club blog).
Events in Israel and Lebanon are a Middle East play out of Moslem-Jewish historical antipathy as well as exploitation of the nation-state concept by those tribes and dictators/leaders who take advantage of the weaknesses. The establishment of Israel as a nation-state by the U.N. is a legal done deal, fair or not. There is no going back to before, being that 60 years, 100 years, or 1,000 years. All the middle east wars since 1947 have only consolidated all this. If you don’t like this statement, try it on the rest of the world.
The world problem is from the Islamofascists who at best amount to about 140,000 out of our huge world population. They must be killed off. It is kill or be killed by this group of dedicated fascists, or be converted to Islam with them as the new leaders. This killing of the 140,000 is WW III.
This is and has been a long war, started long before must of us were born. It is more serious now. The U. S. has it’s own experience. The hero of WWI, Gen. John J. Pershing, earlier chased Moro Islamic rebels in the Philippines, declared victory, left, and they are still there.
The events in the Middle East have great potential for spiraling out of control and dragging us all down by intermixing with the world problem. The egos and manic “isms” of the local despots in Iran and the Hezbollah are destructive to the rest of us. Add to this mix local dictators and royalty just trying to survive with a me first, the others second belief, and predicting is not possible.
This is the World in Collision.
I offer scenarios based on capabilities, not intentions. And then I offer solutions.
Israel will go north into southern Lebanon and into the Bekka Valley to destroy Hezbollah. Iraqi WMD’s hidden there by Syrian’s will be found, but not used do to the counter threat by Israel. The invasion will start around the time of the dark moon in July. Israel will not attack Syria as a country because it prefers the present dictator to any alternative. All the Hezbellah evacuated gear to Syria or Bakka will be attacked and destroyed by Israel as best it can.
Israel will not stay in Lebanon or Gaza when this is all done. Hamas will be grateful.
Iran’s theocratic leaders, and the Iranian President, are 1,000 miles away from Israel and Lebanon, so they will intercede the only the way they can, locally. I expect either a local incursion into Iraq, but more likely an attempt to strangle the Straits of Hormuz operating out of Bandar Abbas and Busheur with anti ship missiles.
Now for the world scenario. Turmoil and uncertainty by major powers is often taken as an advantage by local despots and other leaders with their own objectives. I expect the Russians to have major problems in Chechnya. The present President in Pakistan may fall. The present Iranian leadership will almost certainly fall in a civil war, but the replacement won’t be much better to U.S. interests. Japan will attack its Korean threat, and go nuclear. Last a civil war in China may finally be precipitated between the corrupt Communist leaders and the entrepreneurial classes. This civil war will go nuclear.
The U.S. will not go unscathed. A nuclear weapon will probably be used against us. Probably it will be used against an aircraft carrier, or maybe an amphibious carrier. The targeting will be poor, and the damage and injuries will be horrible and politically inflaming here at home.
Europe will also not go unscathed. The threat by the President of France about 10 weeks ago to go nuclear if need be was his response to a credible threat, I think.
If all the preceding sounds like a military political novel, I hope it is.
Now for solutions.
For the local Middle East conflicts, support the Israeli efforts be they right or wrong from the U.S. point of view. Do not let Hezbollah survive as a political or military organization.
Support any civil war in Iran and China. Support is cheap. Recognize politically the surviving and emerging leadership.
Support Japan in its national decisions.
Tolerate anything Russia does in Chechnya.
Fund to the maximum Russian disarmament of its nuclear weapons.
Hedge our bets in Pakistan. I consider Pakistan an ally based on our common British heritage and decades of cross cultural exchanges (to include military). The hedge is the control of nuclear weapons.
What country entered WWII because of the genocide, w.w.?
What Unit went out of their way to capture the camps?
Again, you deny the history.
What of Cairo, Tehran and Khartoum?
You avoid tose examples all together
I concur with DR. The news is not good. Hezbollah may well be on its way to being both a victim and defender of the common man in Lebanon, against the Israeli aggressor, backed by the US. They will have battle tested their martyrs, refined their tactics and move on towards greater jihad. Where is the evidence for optimism?
rufus; 11:52 AM
Indeed, as anyone who has done conflict resolution or negotiating knows well, there are conflicts which cannot be negotiated. In my opinion, the US Civil War and the Thirty Years War are two such examples of intractable conflicts being resolved definitively by the only means possible (Yeah, I know, I’m going to get clobbered, but history is history for all that.). As General Sherman wisely advised Mr. Lincoln, if you kill off the fanatics the remainder will be amenable to settlement. (The corollary in Iraq being, let them kill each other.)
As you know, I am not entirely pleased with Mr. Bush. However, to his undying credit, he has not allowed the naysayers to drive the US out of the strategically most valuable piece of real estate in the world today.
After justamarine, Dr should do a habutatorpossumwhateverthehellheisdoing_3 and come back as
Pollyanna_1
Bush will wait for the smoking pistol before attacking Iran. There's no reason not to. Ahmadinijad is a raving idiot who turns people against him every time he opens his mouth. Bush is baiting him and having a fun time of doing it.
Bush is upping the stakes by constantly pointing out that Syria and Iran are the sources of trouble. That means if Hizbollah loses it will be see as a personal failure for Ahmadinijad and Iran. That could be enough to push Iran over the edge so it starts the war.
Ahmadinijad doesn't seem like the kind of guy who takes humiliation very well.
Another reason that Bush won't cave to an UN cease fire for Israel is that he knows that the same arguments of "proportionality" and war crimes would be used against the US in the future. By letting Iran start the war Bush has the same excuse that Israel is using, that it is self defense.
Either this guy is very stupid or very scared of Hizbollah.
Speaking to a gathering of foreign ambassadors, [Lebanon] Prime Minister Fuad Saniora said he would seek compensation from Israel for the "unimaginable losses" to the nation's infrastructure...
"Can the international community stand by while such callous retribution by the State of Israel is inflicted on us?" he added.
"We will spare no avenue to make Israel compensate the Lebanese people for the barbaric destruction" inflicted on the country, he told the gathering, which included U.S. Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman.
just a marine,
could be HC shells? Reports IDF have been firing a lot of non-lethal smoke shells (to precisely what end I don't know).
rufus; 12:34 PM
How soon we forget.
Napoleon used artillery to great effect against exposed infantry.
Artillery has been used successfully against unhardened defenses e.g. castles.
Artillery has never, to my knowledge, had any great impact on well protected troops or defenses. What good did artillery do at Iwo Jima, the Somme, or Berlin for example?
The possible arguable exception to the above would be the initial use of phosgene and mustard in WWI.
Has anyone seen a report anywhere of the Israel calling for a general mobilization?
Without one, I cannot see a sustainable attack into southern Lebanon, much less the Bekaa.
I only use the one "nome de plume"
Not worth the effort, I am a bit like Popeye that way.
I'd never claim to be a Marine.
I is what I is
> Has anyone seen a report anywhere of the Israel calling for a general mobilization?
Israel has issued at least two calls of reservists.
Here's an unrelated quote:
Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman Mark Regev said Hezbollah was the biggest obstacle to Lebanese sovereignty and Israel's end game was to disband and disarm it.
Regev said Israel will not initiate conflict with Syria or Iran -- the financial and military backers of Hezbollah -- unless they attack Israel.
"I can tell you unequivocally we have no intention of widening this conflict ... The idea is to come out of this conflict ... with the disarmament of Hezbollah," he said.
brough provided a good guess about the 155 ammo types being shot into Lebanon:
Thanks.
Once we know for sure what the Israeli yellow/orange rounds are we will have one more hint as to their objective.
I assume the targets are rocket ammunition caches, but who knows. If it is HE/I it is a low order explosive followed by burning that sucks out all the O2 that does in humans hidden in undergrounds or ship compartments.
For those that would like some dates for just a marines schedule
The last quarter is on July 17th.
The new moon is on July 25th
That be next Monday - Wendsday.
Remembering the Syrians first use of "night vison" it would be an error to assume the ISF has as great an edge at night as the US is accustomed to.
These boys ain't no Sunni Iraqi wannabes, these fellas went toe to toe with Israeli Special Ops, and held their ground.
According to Debbka.
What are the HB manpads waiting for, close air support?
Copters?
Let the fast movers scream on by,
draw 'em in, patience, patience.
Fire when you see the whites of their eyes
Possum_Tater/ Habu_3/ et alia ad infinitum, saecula saeculorum...
Tonight's movie is "Key Largo"...
This observer presumes that you have thoroughly mastered the fine art of whistling (or words to that effect)...
;-)
Jamie Irons
Army Engineer, habu
Airborne, got that little black and yellow tab, but didn't go the the Bn, went to the CZ instead.
Anything to get out of Fort Hood and the mech Cav. Hated them aluminum boxes with tracks on 'em.
Death traps, I thought.
Saw a LAW hit one, with clothed dummies in it, that was enough for me
These boys ain't no Sunni Iraqi wannabes, these fellas went toe to toe with Israeli Special Ops, and held their ground.
I see the hand of a professional military here. Maybe not on the ground now but the description of the tunnels and tactics suggest to me that they've had military training in Iran or Syria.
What are the HB manpads waiting for, close air support?
You sound like George C Scott in Dr. Stranglove when asked if his plane could fly under the radar and successfully drop the nuclear bomb on Russia. Hell yeah. Whoops.
yoni has a slightly more positive outlook. He also has a few tidbits, which if true should prove very interesting.
A little bird has told me Israel is getting some help with intel from members of the army of Lebanon.
We will finish Nasrallah in the next few days. He has been given refuge in a Christian families home in the Christian part of Beirut.
If Tel Aviv gets hit Syria and Iran will be hit.
We'll see. Neither side is anywhere close to giving up.
More artillery 101
The fact that the Israeli’s are using both artillery (projectile and rockets) and the air force (dumb bombs and precision guided bombs) to defeat the Hezbollah rockets (and Hamas stuff) is a reflection of their military history, present campaign objectives, and distances. Weather counts, too. So does a budget.
Artillery can be very precise (like hit within 50 meters or even in a window given the more expensive round). But it is limited to targets within range, normally these days to within 30 KM’s (18 miles), and often less. Given the Israel targeting problem today across the Lebanese border (and the Hezbellah has similar range problems) , I applaud the Israeli effort to have their cake and eat it too, as in to killing the bad people and their caches of bad weapons while trying to protect the neighbors.
Here comes the air force. The present day American developed (and Israel invested) ability to do the precision that most political leaders want can be delivered by the air force and the artillery. It’s the distance of delivery that I think influences the Israeli’s today.
As the campaign unfolds, let us observe and critique.
Post a Comment
<< Home