Saturday, July 15, 2006

Israel's Strategy?

In From the Cold sketches out the strategy he feels Israel will pursue in Lebanon. In his view Israel's goals are limited. Remove the rocket threat, isolate by air and then destroy the Hezbollah by ground assault; then finally redeploy to Gaza and complete the effort to retrieve Gilad Shalit. In his view the attacks on Hezbollah's rocket batteries are already reducing their ability to launch. Syria may be tempted to intervene, but then again they may sit it out. Darkening the scene from a distance is Iran.


There are, of course, some wild cards in the equation. The sudden execution of one (or all) the Israeli soldiers would prompt an even greater escalation by the IDF, and a possible expansion of its area of operations (think airstrikes against Damascus). Then, there's the Iran factor. Tehran has already indicated that an attack against Syria would be considered an attack against the wider Muslim world, suggesting that it would come to the aid of its ally. Iran's threats aren't entirely hollow, but it's military options are limited to (1) more terrorist attacks, (2) missile strikes against Israel, or (3) a long-range airstrike, using F-4 or SU-24 aircraft. The potential damage from these attacks would be limited (except if WMD were used), but the long-term consequences for Tehran would be exceptionally grave.

Commentary

I believe In From the Cold wrote this post before the full extent of Iran's technical assistance to the Hezbollah became clear. However, it doesn't change his basic assessment, which is that Israel can handily defeat Hezbollah -- unless Iran or Syria come to its rescue -- what he called the Wild Cards. The deck is being dealt and we will turn over some extra cards in the following days.

482 Comments:

Blogger Tom Grey said...

Israel can win any battle with Hezbollah, but that doesn't defeat them.

Only long-term occupation and forced disarmament defeats them -- implementation of 1559.

Israel needs to call on Lebanon to commit some large number of troops, maybe 60 000, to disarming Hezbollah and ensuring that only the elected gov't has military force in Lebanon.

This disarming force could also be from NATO and the UN; Israel should be suggesting something like this to Lebanon, so as to a) first occupy S. Lebanon by Israel, and b) hand over the occupation to a Lebanese/ multinational force, committed to enforcing 1559.

Getting other country's troops into non-Hez Beirut would also be good; but the Lebanon gov't needs more activity, too.

Disarming of Hezbollah is the solution that Israel should be pushing; either with Lebanese and other country's help, or alone.

7/15/2006 12:52:00 AM  
Blogger Tom Grey said...

I don't think it's in the cards, but I do dream of the US to paying the costs for India to provide thousands of Indian troops to help the Lebanese gov't disarm Hezbollah, after the Israelis leave.

US cash+training+equipment, bodies from democratic India, working together to impose peace.

One of Iran's nightmares.(jus' a dream)

7/15/2006 12:57:00 AM  
Blogger Achilles Jones said...

Tom, I like your dream. Anyway, here is my question. Suppose Hezbullah is encircled and cut off in Lebanon. How exactly is it to be destroyed? By actual execution of any captured members? By attempted capture and de-nazification of members? Or by Gitmo style camps where indefinite incarceration of thousands will contain the movement for an indeterminate time period? What other options am I missing? And what do you think would be the most fatal way of dealing with Hezbullah?

7/15/2006 01:16:00 AM  
Blogger 2164th said...

This is a propitious moment for Nato to act. It bypasses the UN and the cunning and always duplicitous Russians. The Chinese are obstructive. No one other than Israel has more on the table than the EU. Lebabon is on the verge of having Israel controlling her south and Hezbollah always on the fringes.

Nature abhors a vacuum and where there is weakness in the ME, the Iranians have surrogates anxious to act. There is no doubt that Iran thinks this thing is winnable. The more trouble they cause, the richer their cash flow.

The captured Israelis are probably dead men walking. Israel will overreact to their murder, and the Iranians will taunt them to do so. Only the prestige and legitimacy offered by Nato can do this. It needs to be done fast. Should Nato do so, it cannot leave without training and fitting a strong independent Lebanese military. Forget about destroying Hezbollah. It is a fantasy. A counterbalanced and disarmed Hezbollah is achievable.

7/15/2006 02:00:00 AM  
Blogger Achilles Jones said...

But this is my question: how do you disarm Hezbullah? It's easy to just say this. Their cadres can melt away into the local populus and pick up new weapons at any time? CAn you think of a recent successful dismantling of such a potent force apart from a much deeper strike for the jugular? In other words, how can Hezbullah ever realistically be dealt with while restricting this thing to Lebanese territory?

Unless Israel intends to broaden the conflict, this campaign so far is a big show of bravado, but is not intended to deal a death blow to Hezbullah. It was all about getting the soldiers back and has already become larger than Israel had planned for.

7/15/2006 02:10:00 AM  
Blogger 2164th said...

Hezbollah cannot be disarmed, but the territory in Southern Lebanon can. That accomplishes four goals:

1. Strengthens a weak Lebanon.
2. Provides border security for Israel in the
north.
3. Stifles Iranian ambition.
4. Slows Juggernaught Hezbollah.

Stability is achievable and desirable, especially now.
This is a taste from today's Telegraph:

..."Sheikh Nasrallah raised the stakes, threatening to attack Israel beyond the city of Haifa, 20 miles from the border, which was hit for the first time on Thursday. Also for the first time, Hizbollah rockets hit an Israeli naval vessel off Beirut. Four crew were reported missing although the military had said earlier that there was only light damage.

"Surprises will start from now," said the sheikh, who is admired by Arabs for Hizbollah's success in forcing Israel out of Lebanon in 2000.

As the number of deaths mounted, President Jacques Chirac of France accused the Israelis of trying to "destroy" Lebanon.

"I find honestly, as all Europeans do, that the current reactions are totally disproportionate," he said in an interview to mark France's July 14 national day. "We are in a very dangerous situation. We must be very, very careful." Mr Bush distanced himself from Mr Chirac's comments and a Russian call for a ceasefire."

Please have someone give Nato a wake up call.

7/15/2006 02:18:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

Interesting MSM Blog
No ice cream in this Israeli town
Yoni says action will commence Monday or Tuesday.
Today is Saturday, so he won't be checking in at Blog or Hewitt's Saturday Special Show.
---
Further South:
During the short time we were in Tel Aviv, things seemed normal. At the airport, several Israelis came up us to say they were annoyed that their relatives had canceled plans to vacation in Israel.

"Tell them Tel Aviv is fine," one woman said to me. "It's just up north where there are some problems."
---
Been there, done that!

7/15/2006 02:52:00 AM  
Blogger Wu Wei said...

Link

The London-based Al-Hayat newspaper reported Saturday that Israel issued an ultimatum to Syrian President Bashar Assad, according to which a regional war would erupt within 72 hours if Damascus does not prevent Hezbollah attacks.

According to the report, a Pentagon source said that if Syria does not try to influence Hezbollah, Israel could bomb essential installations in Syria. The source neither confirmed nor denied rumors that Israel had given Damascus 72 hours to comply with international demands.

In recent days, senior U.S. administration officials, led Bush blamed Syria for the escalation of violence in the region. Syria's ambassador to the U.S. regarded U.S. policy in the region as favoring Israel, which he said was not helping the situation.

According to analysts and senior officials in Syria, Damascus is aware of the threat of an Israeli strike. In recent days, senior officials warned Israel against attacking. Lawmaker Muhammad Habash stated that if Damascus is attacked, another front would open on the Golan Heights. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has warned Israel against attacking Syria.

Syria's ambassador to London said Friday that Damascus wants to remain outside the conflict in Lebanon. He went on to say that Syria demanded that Hezbollah stop launching Katyusha rockets at Israel.

On Friday, the ruling Baath Party said Syria will support Hezbollah and Lebanon against Israel's attacks on the country.

7/15/2006 03:45:00 AM  
Blogger Wu Wei said...

An update from CNN:

The IDF added that the ship was attacked by a missile and not by a drone packed with explosives, as reported by the Israeli newspaper Haaretz.

7/15/2006 03:57:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

Israel: Rockets Hit Tiberias
July 15, 2006 1048 GMT
Rockets hit the Israeli town of Tiberias on July 15, marking the deepest hit into Israeli territory since the beginning of the conflict. (Stratfor)
---
wu's link:
"Lawmaker Muhammad Habash stated that if Damascus is attacked, another front would open on the Golan Heights.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has warned Israel against attacking Syria.
"
---
So that answers Alexis question in a manner that makes sense to me:
A face saving bluff that has already been executed in that Damascus has already done what Israel demanded:
Call off the Rocket attacts.
...as if they will.
So, baby make suck Nitrous, but he's not nuts!

7/15/2006 04:04:00 AM  
Blogger Karensky said...

Ah we are witnessing the "Arab Game". Olmert came to power with the intent of completely vacating Gaza and the West Bank. The minds that be in the Palestinian areas; AQ, Hamas, Hizbullah, The Brotherhood ad nauseum, chose to take a measure of Olmert's heart. Well looks like once again they, the Arabs have not learned anything in over 1,000 years.

Israeli strategy from reading announcements from the Govt. and IDF appear to be what they are saying. They intend to root out organized Hizbullah points in the Farm just north of the border, destroy any and all Hizbi assets throughout the greater Beruit area, take out follow on bases throughout the Bekka and possibly reoccupy Gaza with the intent of eliminating all but Hamas/PA. Their incursion into southern Lebanon will take out a significant number of those gosh darned Iranian Tourists, you know the guys that visit with all that armour take enjoy the beaches etc.

It sould be interesting to see the Mad Mullahs actions should they decide to jump in. With US and UK air superiority I don't think the MMs would have much of an airforce after 20 or so minutes and the Isr Airforce would be royally peeved not having got in on any of the fun.

7/15/2006 04:11:00 AM  
Blogger Wu Wei said...

Jerusalem Post

A senior IDF intelligence official says that Iran has approximately 100 soldiers in Lebanon and that they helped Hizbullah hit an Israel Navy ship with an anti-ship missile.

7/15/2006 04:11:00 AM  
Blogger Wu Wei said...

I have to believe that Bush has a coalition of the willing ready if there is an escalation. As far as Iran goes, I don't think Bush is counting on Putin or China to save the world. Just like with Iraq, he needs to go through the motions at the UN while he quietly moves his real plan in the background.

7/15/2006 04:16:00 AM  
Blogger Wu Wei said...

Hezbollah responded with long range missiles into Tiberias. Israel thinks Tel Aviv may be attacked.

For the first time since the 1973 Yom Kippur War, the city of Tiberias came under a rocket attack on Saturday. Tiberias is located some 35 kilometers south of the Lebanese border on the western bank of the Sea of Galilee.

Three of the six Katyusha rockets fired at the city by Hizbullah landed in residential areas, with one landing near the Club Hotel resort, and one landing very near a gas station.

At least one person was suffering from shock and evacuated to Poriya Hospital, while residents were told to enter shelters and fortified rooms.

Tiberias is located outside the area that the IDF predicted would be hit by Katyushas.

Moshav Kfar Hitim, near Tiberias, was also hit.

A senior Israeli intelligence official warned Saturday that Hizbullah could attack Tel Aviv with long-range rockets.

7/15/2006 04:24:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

Karensky,
Friedman at Stratfor thinks it's more about Iraq, and things going better there than Iran would hope, thus they sought to distract us, miscalculating that GWB would put reins on Israel, and this would stretch out.
Instead, we were happy to see Israel do the opposite and distract Iran while atriting Hizbollah.

7/15/2006 05:18:00 AM  
Blogger Wu Wei said...

Four Israel Navy sailors were reported missing after an Iran-manufactured C-802 missile hit the ship. Initially, the army was not certain whether a missile or explosives-laden drone hit the vessel on Friday night.

7/15/2006 05:20:00 AM  
Blogger Utopia Parkway said...

Haaretz is reporting that the missile that hit the Israeli warship is an Iranian manufactured C-802 missile.

This missile is an anti-ship cruise missile designed by the Chinese and sold to the Iranians.

See:

China Arming Iran With Advanced Missile Technology

C-802

7/15/2006 05:30:00 AM  
Blogger kstagger said...

Once again we can see what happens when a well armed democratic and disciplined force fights against a weak assortment of thug-o-cracies

7/15/2006 06:16:00 AM  
Blogger desert rat said...

Rollin' rollin' rollin'

I heard on the TV that a cargo transport ship was sunk during that missile attack on the "Man o' War".

Anyone else hear that, or are my ears failing me as well?

Even that Eleanor Clift woman, just back from Israel is dismayed. Liberals in Israel are demanding action against their Enemies.

It takes a toll, though, she said.

"In Israel, we heard repeatedly that this is the first phase of the next war and that it’s about more than Hamas and Hizbullah, it’s about Syria and Iran, and stopping an Iranian nuclear weapon program. "

The first hand experiance in Israel seems to have left her conflicted. The efforts in Gaza were "misdirected", but ...

.
She sure doesn't know

7/15/2006 06:19:00 AM  
Blogger Wu Wei said...

But the army's investigation showed that Hezbollah had fired an Iranian-made missile at the vessel from the shores of Lebanon, said Brig. Gen. Ido Nehushtan.

"We can confirm that it was hit by an Iranian-made missile launched by Hezbollah. We see this as very profound fingerprint of Iranian involvement in Hezbollah," Nehushtan said in an interview with The Associated Press.

Another Hezbollah missile also hit and sank a nearby merchant ship at around the same time, Nehushtan said. He said that ship apparently was Egyptian, but had no other information.

7/15/2006 06:30:00 AM  
Blogger Wu Wei said...

"The surprises that I have promised you will start now. Now in the middle of the sea, facing Beirut, the Israeli warship that has attacked the infrastructure, people's homes and civilians — look at it burning," [Hezbollah Chief] Nasrallah said.

"It will sink and with it will sink scores of Israeli Zionist soldiers. This is just the beginning," he warned.


No, actually the surprise was that you sank scores of Egyptian Islamic merchants.

7/15/2006 06:38:00 AM  
Blogger Utopia Parkway said...

I heard on the TV that a cargo transport ship was sunk during that missile attack on the "Man o' War".

Anyone else hear that, or are my ears failing me as well?


Yes, it's been reported as an Egyptian merchant ship. One report I saw said it was sunk. Other's don't really say. I also saw something that said that one missile had missed the Israeli ship. If so then at least three of those cruise missiles were fired.

I think the news is unreliable coming from Leb right now. There were also reports yesterday of a failed amphibious landing of Israilis in Leb, which turned out to be false.

BTW, a few more missile links:

Iran's missile forces

Anti-ship missile

C-802

7/15/2006 06:39:00 AM  
Blogger Wu Wei said...

Could this be true? It would be amazing for Israel to hit Syria while the Arab foreign ministers are meeting.

Eyewitnesses: IAF struck Syrian targets near Lebanon border

The Israeli Air Force struck four targets in Jadidat Yabus near the Syrian-Lebanese border, eyewitnesses told the al-Mustakbal television network.

According to the report, the Air Force hit targets belonging to the Syrian army and located on Syrian territory.

7/15/2006 06:46:00 AM  
Blogger 2164th said...

The current Israeli strikes at border crossings with Syria, straffing service stations and convoys of people fleeing is foolish. Israel is on the verge of awarding Hezbollah victim-hood, a mantle they welcome and wear enthusiasticly.

7/15/2006 06:49:00 AM  
Blogger Wu Wei said...

The Israeli military said on Saturday it had only carried out bombing raids on Lebanese territory and not inside Syria after reports of attacks very close to the Syrian border.

"It's very important to understand that we have only targeted bridges and access points in Lebanon," an army spokeswoman said. "We have not bombed anything in Syria."

Earlier witnesses said Israeli warplanes had bombed a Lebanese-Syrian border crossing point, indicating that air strikes were straying close to Syrian territory.

7/15/2006 06:51:00 AM  
Blogger Cogitatus Incognito said...

If we have been in a proxy war with North Korea as China's proxy and Iran as Russia's proxy and Israel as our proxy, then isn't this the moment in the movie when Harrison Ford pulls out his gun and shoots the giant, sword-swinging Arab dead? North Korea and Iran have been rattling their sabers for months now...Israel is in the process of taking out their proxies. Watch Syria crumble of its own dead weight. Then it will be interesting to see how Iran, standing alone in the Middle East, plays out the end-game.

A few others have begun speculating that, contrary to the MSM, Bush and Company are actually instigating an open war agains Iran. He's the comsumant poker-player and has just set the table up to go all-in against Iran. He's one of the few 'adult' politicians we have and will not leave Iran for some future president to have to deal with.

7/15/2006 06:52:00 AM  
Blogger allen said...

I am going to go way out on a limb here and make a prediction: As long as Syria remains Syria and Lebanon remains its vassal, EVERY Israeli city will be in range of missile attack. Indeed, I will go further: no matter how much farther north or east Hezbollah is driven, the range of its munitions will increase accordingly.

Of course, if the Syrian government were to collapse and were the real Lebanese government/military confident in unwavering, non-duplicitous US and Israeli support, the Western flank would be secured promptly and Iran would be surrounded.

Should the US take today’s attack on Tiberias as the pretext to initiate its joint defense agreement with Israel and, thereby, launch a brutal air campaign in the Bekaa and the foothills of the Golan, the real Lebanese government/military might consider this a green light for action against Syria and Hezbollah.

As an afterthought, if/when high value Hezbollah human targets are hit, Israel will know. That no announcement of same has been forthcoming makes me consider the possibility that the bad guys got a "heads-up" (or down, as the case may be).

7/15/2006 06:53:00 AM  
Blogger Wu Wei said...

I too am concerned about whether Israel is getting too close to the line. One problem is that the media are so biased that it is tough to tell the real facts, whether things are as bad as they say. That van of people was by the border and I know Israel has said that people must clear out or be shot, because there needs to be a buffer zone. If the van had swerved towards the Israeli side of the fence like a possible suicide bombing, Reuters would never admit it.

7/15/2006 06:59:00 AM  
Blogger Wu Wei said...

Ultimately though the complaints about Israel fail for this reason: Lebanon started the war by capturing the Israeli soldiers, and sustains it by refusing to return those soldiers and by launching missile attacks at Israeli civilians on Israeli soil.

Instead of nit-picking about the rules of war, if Lebanon wants peace, she should return the prisoners and cease fire.

7/15/2006 07:07:00 AM  
Blogger Karridine said...

Allen (06:53)- I hear solid reasoning in your outline...

I'll keep YOUR POST in mind as the next few days play out...

And WuWei, I'm betting Israel can step a LONG WAY over any 'lines' in order to clobber their enemies, and it won't make much difference to the Jew-hating, America-loating media reporting!

7/15/2006 07:07:00 AM  
Blogger Wu Wei said...

I think bombing very close to Syria was important. There was some story floating that Israel wouldn't dare bomb the crossing to Syria. Plus Syria made the announcement today supporting Hez. and Iran has been thumping its chest. So it was important for Israel to cross all those lines they drew (but not the border line yet).

It looks like Syria was quick to confirm it.

Syria was not the target of any attack by Israel on Saturday, a Syrian information official said.

"No Syrian installation, military or civilian, has been targeted in any part of the country," the official told Reuters.

7/15/2006 07:17:00 AM  
Blogger Wu Wei said...

Bush today was very, very strong in support of Israel, and specifically blaming Hez. and Syria. Granted Bush is a good poker player, but I also believe he's got a good hand too, and he's willing to help take out Syria and / or Iran if necessary.

At a joint news conference, Bush again declined to urge Israel to curb its attacks on Hizbollah targets in Lebanon, a position at odds with those of French President Jacques Chirac and the European Union, who have called Israel's action disproportionate.

Bush laid the blame for this week's upsurge in Middle East violence squarely on Hizbollah guerrillas for firing rockets into Israel and abducting Israeli soldiers. In response, Israel has bombed Beirut's airport and blockaded its port.

"The best way to stop the violence is for Hizbollah to lay down its arms and to stop attacking. And therefore I call upon Syria to exert influence over Hizbollah," Bush said.

7/15/2006 07:21:00 AM  
Blogger rufus said...

Here is your Arrow, anti-ballistic missile missile.

My guess is that the farther back the launchers are pushed, the more effective this system will become.

7/15/2006 07:30:00 AM  
Blogger desert rat said...

07-15-2006 4:25 AM
By NOOR KHAN, Associated Press Writer

KANDAHAR, Afghanistan -- Coalition and Afghan forces killed more than 40 militants in clashes across southern Afghanistan on Saturday, according to the U.S. military.

The clashes come amid stepped up U.S.-led military efforts to crush armed extremists, primarily the Taliban, behind a bloody insurgency raging across Afghanistan, particularly in the south.

Skirmishes between coalition and Taliban militants raged throughout the southern Uruzgan province Friday into Saturday, with battlefield estimates indicating that 31 insurgents were killed in and around the Chora district, said Lt. Col. Paul Fitzpatrick. ...

07-15-2006 6:59 AM
By RYAN LENZ, Associated Press Writer

BAGHDAD, Iraq -- Gunmen kidnapped the head of Iraq's Olympic committee and more than a dozen employees Saturday after storming a sports conference in Baghdad, police said. The kidnappers wore camouflage Iraqi police uniforms and security guards outside the meeting said they did not interfere because they thought the gunmen were legitimate law enforcement, police said. ...


From Bombay to Beirut

All we were saying,
was give Peace a chance.

A nonproportionate response is called for.

There are "givens" in the public debate. the War of Words observed.

One is Doc Assad remains when this episode is done. That the status que will remain basicly the same.

That the effort, therefore, a waste of life and limb.

Unless the "givens" of the "Game" can be radically changed, they're right.

On to Damascus, or build a higher fence and quit complaining about the menace.

7/15/2006 07:43:00 AM  
Blogger Anointiata Delenda Est said...

What Mark said.

ADE

7/15/2006 07:50:00 AM  
Blogger whit said...

Hey Hey
HO HO
Hezbollah
Has got to go!

There is only one way to accomplish this; eliminate their state sponsors. Anything short of regime change is wasted effort.

Lebanon is being offered the opportunity to rid itself of Hezbollah. They will accept the offer or accept the consequences.

Syria must be dealt with. So far, they are doing their best to avoid provoking the Israelis but there will be no better time than this for Bush to act against Assad.

As the Israelis soften up southern Lebanon in preparation for an invasion, the State Department is tasked with securing the estimated 20,000 Americans there. So, there may be no dramatic escalations for a few days.

This is a turning point, if George Bush and the US are serious about the war on terror, Hezbollah, Hamas and Syria will soon pay the ultimate price. If not, the west will pay the price.

If you can't stand the howling protestations of the left and the Arab world, cover your ears and prepare to suffer through it because its got to be done.

7/15/2006 07:50:00 AM  
Blogger Triton'sPolarTiger said...

Timely comments there, dr -

Looks like we have an ultimatum issued to Syria.

Sorry no live link - I haven't posted much in the last little while and I've forgotten the html tags.

SO, cut and paste THIS:

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3275886,00.html

Triton

7/15/2006 07:52:00 AM  
Blogger 2164th said...

The US Army cannot control specific neighborhoods in Baghdad, and if I recall we got into those neighborhoods with some rather impressive air power.

Lebanon is already occupied by Hezbollah. Iraq is going who knows where. Knock out Syria and I wonder who will control that? I guarantee you it will not be the US and will not be Israel. It is smarter to choose fights you can win.

Israel has been engaged on and off in air wars and retaliatory bombings for how many years? The US used air power in Viet Nam and yet air power could never defeat an enemy on the ground and imbedded in a rural society. The Soviets, the same in Afghanistan.

Israel already received an ugly surprise from Iran with the missile attack of the ship. More will be on the way. Unless Israel is prepared to follow up with a massive ground assault and then occupy Lebanon, what is the point? If they occupy Lebanon, then what? Israel is not capable of surving a prolonged war with Iran. Does the US have any say about getting into a war in a part of the world than is conducted by deranged Islamic madmen?

The war against radical Islam is never going to be won using this simplistic and ultimately losing strategy of attrition. There is often the talk of a clash of civilizations. Perhaps, a more accurate metaphor, is a clash of eras. Israel and the West are in the twenty first century. We think and act accordingly. Hezbollah is from the fourteenth century and they are rational actors for that period.

Israel believes that striking down and killing Hezbollah leadership is a winning startegy. Twenty first century thinking says this would be a deterrent. Not so for fourteenth century thinking.

Warfare tactics hardly changed from Rome to Gallipoli. Go to a US Civil War reanactment. There is always the brave and glorious falling of the flag bearor and a rush to pick up the colors and another is struck down and on it goes. That is appropriate behavior for the era and nuts to us in the twenty first century. Hezbollah is in that era. Kill one Hezbollah leader and ten more enthusiastic jihadis rush to fill the gap.

Understanding your enemy requires you to understand your enemy. Develop your strategy on what they would do not on what you would do.

The war against radical Islam will not ever be won by playing into into the Islamist strategy. Israel has fallen for it hook line and sinker.

7/15/2006 07:53:00 AM  
Blogger desert rat said...

Report: Israel gives Syria ultimatum

London-based Arabic language newspaper Al-Hayat says Israel gave Syria 72 hours to stop Hizbullah’s activity, bring about release of kidnapped IDF troops. ‘Israel will not end military activity until new situation created that will prevent Syria, Iran from using terror organizations to threaten its security,’ newspaper quotes Pentagon official as saying


YNet News

They gave Peace a chance.
Withdrew to their own yard,
sent money each month,
and still it wasn't enough.

Where are the Plains of Armagedden, exactly?

7/15/2006 07:56:00 AM  
Blogger Wu Wei said...

Link

It looks like the Arab League has at least 8 countries of 18 against the terrorist proposal submitted by Lebanon, which is being discussed today. ("all legitimate means" is code for terrorism). The Saudis are leading the fight against supporting Hezbollah. Usually resolutions need to be unanimous to carry weight.

The Saudi foreign minister appeared to be leading a camp of ministers criticizing the guerrilla group's actions, calling them "unexpected, inappropriate and irresponsible acts."

"These acts will pull the whole region back to years ago, and we cannot simply accept them," Saudi al-Faisal told his counterparts.

Supporting his stance were representatives of Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Iraq, the Palestinian Authority, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, delegates said on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the talks.

Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moallem lashed back al-Faisal, asking "How can we come here to discuss the burning situation in Lebanon while others are making statements criticizing the resistance?"
...
The rift appeared likely to prevent participants from issuing a unanimous resolution over Israel's incursion into Lebanon - the worst Israeli attack on its neighbor in 24 years.

Earlier, Lebanese Foreign Minister Fawzi Salloukh presented his fellow Arab League members with a draft resolution condemning Israel's military offensive and supporting Lebanon's "right to resist occupation by all legitimate means" - language frequently used by Hezbollah to justify its guerrillas' presence in south Lebanon.

The draft, a copy of which obtained by The Associated Press, also demanded the release of Lebanese captives and detainees in Israeli prisons, and supported Lebanon's right to "liberate them by all legitimate means."

7/15/2006 08:03:00 AM  
Blogger whit said...

Sorry 2164, I think we were going down your path for the last twenty years before Sept 11. Look where it got us.

These people understand only strength and force. The only thing to do is kill until they get the message.

When those Muslims that don't subscribe to the fundamentalist mentality no longer live in fear of it, things may change.

In the meantime, appeasement or the appearance of weakness will lead to more death.

7/15/2006 08:04:00 AM  
Blogger Achilles Jones said...

Where is THAAD?

7/15/2006 08:08:00 AM  
Blogger oseaghdha said...

2164th
If it's not A or B, it must be C.
Unfortunately, the 21st century mindthink won't allow it.
Therefore, it's rinse-repeat ad infinitum.

7/15/2006 08:10:00 AM  
Blogger Wu Wei said...

Looks like the Israel ultimatum to Syria story was false, maybe planted by someone.

Link

IDF officer: Israel has no plans to attack Syria

By Yoav Stern, Haaretz Correspondent, and News Agencies

Responding to a report in a pan-Arab daily newspaper that Israel presented Damascus with an ultimatum, an Israel Defense Forces officer said Saturday that targeting Syria is currently not on Israel's agenda.

"We're not a gang that shoots in every direction," the officer said. "It won't be right to bring Syria into the campaign."

7/15/2006 08:11:00 AM  
Blogger 2164th said...

Sorry Whit. I can count. One and a half billion Muslims. Go to war with all. You lose. Isolate the modernists from the fourteenth century , you have a good chance at winning. Play into their hand and enjoy the drama of Pickett's Charge, but you lose.

7/15/2006 08:12:00 AM  
Blogger Wu Wei said...

For the first time since the Gulf War the IDF has stationed two Patriot Missile batteries in Haifa. The Patriots missile is designed to intercept incoming ballistic missile. (Hanan Greenberg)

7/15/2006 08:27:00 AM  
Blogger desert rat said...

For a further understanding of the Muslim mind, check out this from Commentary. "Tales of Islam" is a series of book reviews of titles translated from the Arabic.

The stories told are symbolic of the state of the Culture.
The story told in "The Almond" would make even the most ardent Feminist blush. Right out of John Norman's imagination into reality, seems to me. Or, perhaps Mr Norman was well traveled and had experienced the "pleasures" of Arabia, first hand.

7/15/2006 08:30:00 AM  
Blogger whit said...

We are not talking about going to war with all- Only those who deal in death and destruction.

Look at the Gulf States and the Saudis. The message I'm hearing is that they have no sympathy for Hezbollah. The message I get is that the Lebanese would like to be rid of Hezbollah.

What about the people of Iran? Ledeen and others claim that the people of Iran wish to be free of the Mullahs.

The sooner we do what we need to do, the sooner we can get out of the Arab world.

7/15/2006 08:30:00 AM  
Blogger Oengus Moonbones said...

Wretchard, I wish I could be optimistic. But here are my predictions:

(1) 2164th has suggested that NATO step in. This isn't going to happen.

(2) Damascus gets its orders from Tehran, and thus the Loony Mullahs of Iran will fight to the very last man—Syrian man that is. So don't even bother calling for Syria to "restrain" Hizbullah.

(3) The moment Israel begins to truely degrade Hizbullah's assets and capabilities in Lebanon, the entire muslim world (including our "friends") will start screaming bloody murder, and consequently Dubya's pals, in Big Business and the Republican party, will march into the White House and demand something be done before the price of oil sends the U.S. economy to Sour City. Dubya, losing his nerve, will call for "restraint" by Israel, forcing them to back off their campaign before it's completed, thus leaving Israel worse off than before.

(4) Iran will eventually get nuclear weapons.

(5) If you think things are bad now, just wait. They're going to ge a whole lot worse.

7/15/2006 08:48:00 AM  
Blogger desert rat said...

The Venezuelan leader charged that Israel is using excessive force.

"Are we going to bomb cities and tell them that we won't stop bombing until they return the soldier? That's crazy," he said.

"Worse, it's craziness with nuclear bombs. (The Israelis) have their weapons of mass destruction and nobody criticizes them, nobody says anything because the empire is behind them," Chavez said.

Blaming the escalation on Washington's undue influence, Chavez said: "The U.S. empire's desire to dominate has no limits and that could take this world to a real Holocaust. May God save us."


What will Mr Chavez do to help Mr Putin & God "save" the world from US and the coming Holocaust?

7/15/2006 08:58:00 AM  
Blogger desert rat said...

A leading Senate Republican on Friday urged U.S. restraint in supporting Israel's military campaign against Hezbollah, citing the problems it may cause in the war in Iraq and efforts to disarm Iran.

Senator John W. Warner, chairman of the Armed Services Committee, issued a written statement Friday calling on the Bush administration to "think through very carefully how Israel's extraordinary reaction could affect our operations in Iraq and our joint diplomatic efforts to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue.

"This is a very critical time for the U.S. in the Middle East, and the Israeli actions will certainly have an impact beyond Lebanon and Gaza," Warner warned.


One Republican vote for the status que and a higher fence.

7/15/2006 09:03:00 AM  
Blogger Wu Wei said...

It looks like Hezbollah is going into hiding now, as Israel destroys their offices and housing.

Articles indicate that Israel cleared explosives at the border crossing where the troops were captured, and dropped leaflets in Southern Lebanon ordering residents to leave within two hours. The buffer zone is being established on the South Lebanese border.

What is probably happening then is that Hezbollah is going into guerrilla mode, blending in with the population. It will change things, especially if Hezbollah stops firing the rockets.

7/15/2006 09:05:00 AM  
Blogger desert rat said...

Mr Warner obviously sees a series of isolated local events. No International War for Senator Warner, he rides with the Supremes in that regard.

No wonder we're doin' so swell. The Senator, and the majority in DC are blind to the scope of the reality.

7/15/2006 09:07:00 AM  
Blogger Wu Wei said...

Israel reportedly thinks Hezbollah may be targeting its officials with missiles.

At around 5:15 p.m., at least six Katyusha rockets were fired at the city of Nahariya, just as Environment Minister Gideon Ezra was touring the place. One of the rockets "missed" the minister by only a few hundreds of meters. There were no reports of injuries.

Carmiel was struck by two rounds of Katyusha rockets, and an educational institute suffered a direct hit. One rocket landed on the roof of a house, and several people were treated for shock.

A senior IDF officer said there is a link between the rocket attacks on the north and visits by top Israeli officials to the area.

7/15/2006 09:07:00 AM  
Blogger Habu_1 said...

Whit 8:04
I agree. Killing and more killing as a projection of power. The killing should be done not with precision weapons but a la B-52 Vietnam type "carpet" bombing. I know of no person having witness this type of bombing who isn't indelibly marked with what the meaning of "power" is.
Precision bombing doesn't come close to making that impression on a population of ignorant,illiterate people.

2164, we can kill as many as necessary be it 20 or 20 million.... it's just a matter of will. And should they make the mistake of trying to repeat or exceed a 9-11 we won't leave a building standing in many an Arab or Persian city.
So let's suck it up and get busy bust'in some chops.

7/15/2006 09:09:00 AM  
Blogger desert rat said...

Decapitation attempts are tit for tat.

The Mohammedans obviously have excellent intel on the ground in Israel. The Israeli are admitting it. Doubt if inflatable tanks will work this go round.

7/15/2006 09:11:00 AM  
Blogger leaddog2 said...

Desert Rat;

John Norman's books about Gor were awesome to read.

7/15/2006 09:14:00 AM  
Blogger rufus said...

Sadr's itching to get into the fight. I think This is a big part of the whole deal.

7/15/2006 09:16:00 AM  
Blogger desert rat said...

If there is anarchy after the Doc leaves Damascus, just hand the place to Jordan. It is part of the old Kingdom, I believe. The majority of Syrians would fit right into the Kingdom. Those that don't can die.

The Jordanians and Iraqi forces could act jointly to establish order. The level of violence in Baghdad and the Sunni triangle would drop radically.

Then the Shia militias might stand down, without a fight.

7/15/2006 09:17:00 AM  
Blogger Scott said...

Mark:

You are not yet informed. Syria will remain even if Iran has to starve more of their own people to do it.

Iran & Syria Sign Mutual Defense Pact June 2006

Allen:

You are correct. As long as the China-Iran-Syria-Hezbollah Nexus remains for Anti ship missiles, UAV's Cheap but effective RPG's AK-101's and worse, they will attain longer and longer range as Israel extends any kind of Security zone, Lebanses Army OR Israel controlling southern Lebanon matters not.

The question is when do they start hitting Israel with VX, Sarin, Mustard Bombs and Missiles. VX is the worst, on a bad day as effective as a small Neutron Bomb.

Once the Chemical Weapons are unleashed, a line is crossed for the whole world and all parties Chips are "all In" -- last hand of the game, deal the cards.

7/15/2006 09:23:00 AM  
Blogger Wu Wei said...

Someone asked about Turkey's position:

Link

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Saturday spoke by phone with his Lebanese counterpart Fuad Saniora, who requested Turkish mediation for a cease-fire to end the spiraling violence in the Middle East, an official said.

The Turkish premier told Saniora Turkey would "make every kind of contribution" for a cease-fire, Erdogan's spokesman, Akif Beki, told The Associated Press, but gave no further information.

Predominantly Muslim Turkey has been trying to play a mediating role between Israel and Palestinians and has criticized Israel, a close ally, for using excessive force in its offensives in the Middle East.

Earlier on Saturday, Erdogan racheted up the criticism, accusing the country of engaging in ruthless violence.

Erdogan also called on the powerful Group of Eight nations, currently meeting in Russia, to reach a joint decision that would allow the United Nations Security Council to establish a cease-fire to end the spiraling violence.

The G-8 countries, the United States, Russia, Japan, Germany, Britain, France, Italy and Canada, were expected to issue a declaration on the Lebanon crisis.

"No reason can ever justify the raining of bombs on innocent civilians, the destruction of cities that exceed the limits of mercy," Erdogan said during a ceremony to launch a housing project in the eastern city of Artvin, according to the Anatolia news agency.

"I appeal to the G-8 countries: the G-8 must reach a common decision, the U.N. Security Council must declare a cease-fire," he said.

7/15/2006 09:25:00 AM  
Blogger Wu Wei said...

> "No reason can ever justify the raining of bombs on innocent civilians, the destruction of cities that exceed the limits of mercy," Erdogan said

Does he mean Hezbollah's missiles?

7/15/2006 09:27:00 AM  
Blogger Habu_1 said...

DR,
I like the sound of your last post.It's historically based and impresses one as very doable in the land of hard to do things.

7/15/2006 09:28:00 AM  
Blogger desert rat said...

I'm sure there is a chuck of Syria that Turkey covets.

Is it time to redraw the maps?

7/15/2006 09:29:00 AM  
Blogger Tony said...

It's just another dumb luck accident by stupid Bush / Rumsfeld and their fiasco in the Middle East that we are better militarily positioned to support Israel against all of their traditional enemies than we ever have been before.

Against a rational enemy, this position would tend to stifle military adventurism. Against a desperate, perhaps suicidal enemy, the logic on the ground may have no such salutary effect.

The Iranian hand with the anti-ship missile has been exposed, as we were guessing yesterday.

So the question is only: are they merely irrational, or are they really suicidal, like their bombers?

7/15/2006 09:29:00 AM  
Blogger Scott said...

Continued:

We are now in a period where the Nazis have crossed over into the Rhineland once again, Czeckoslovakia and Austria are next.

In other words, if you can throw the bastards out now, make war a painful experience their own people ,may , get rid of the leadership ... at least in Lebanon Hezbollah.

The real question is Syria & the Baby Assad regime, will Isarel go after it, now or later ?

7/15/2006 09:32:00 AM  
Blogger desert rat said...

And the North Viets used SAMs from the Soviets, and tanks from China but the Soviets & Chinese were never to blame.
The Iranians supply weapons to the World, but on a much smaller scale than either US, Russia or Israel.
Each of those mentioned claim no responsibility for how the weapons are later used.

It is Mr Chavez who is chastized for building a War machine, not the Russians, Spanish, Brazilians and Chinese for selling it to him.

We should all maintain that standard for Iran and North Korea. Or so Mr Putin inferred yesterday.

We had for North Korea and Chad in the past, allowing NorK SCUDs to be delivered after boarding the ship on the "high seas".

As foor the Iranian "advisers", bet they are pretty "clean",
no ID cards or tattoos.

7/15/2006 09:48:00 AM  
Blogger Aristides said...

I haven't seen this angle discussed, so I'm throwing it out there.

From everything I've been reading, Israeli public opinion is strongly in favor of solving this problem once and for all -- and that means Syria and Iran. Israel is a democracy. Would Ohmert's government survive a weak and partial solution to this crisis? Is that a factor in all this?

7/15/2006 09:51:00 AM  
Blogger desert rat said...

I'd certainly think so, aristide.

The tipping point may have been reached for the Israeli populous.

Ms Clift's description of US expats in Israel certainly carried that message. She could not really like it, nor understand the cause, seemed to me, but she reported on the "tension".

That people would willingly sumbit to the "toll" baffled her, I think.

7/15/2006 09:55:00 AM  
Blogger desert rat said...

Sheik Aweys also condemned American government against trying to disperse Islamic Courts in Mogadishu.

"Americans have inherited British policy which is divide and Rule and that won't be possible at this time in Somalia" he said, adding that Islamic Community in Somalia is one ( Ahlusuna Waljameeca).

"We have no what Americans termed to be Moderate Islamists or Extremists, what we know is only Islam community and that is what we are here in Somalia and every where" sheik Aweys said."


Here, there and everywhere

7/15/2006 10:01:00 AM  
Blogger Tony said...

Desert,

This is more like when the Sovs actually flew MiGs in Nam. The infamous "Col. Tomb" was rumored to be a Russian pilot.

Let's hope it's not more like Korea and the Chinese Army coming over the Yalu. Would seem so, with Adminejad and the Syrians publicly announcing their military support and threats.

Speaking of the intl arms market, I just read the familiar stats that AK's are responsible for up to 90% in these ongoing regional wars.

Also, just last April, we sold Israel at least 100 GBU-28's, the 5,000 pound bunker busters, which they will deliver with their locally upgraded F-15's.

7/15/2006 10:01:00 AM  
Blogger Wu Wei said...

An Israeli officer was quoted as saying today that they have no intention of attacking Syria. If Lebanon is cleaned out I don't see why the public would have a problem with it. Syria has been there a long time.

The IDF officer emphasized that the Golan Heights frontier has been quiet since 1974, a factor which Israeli views as a vital security asset. The officer said that the Syrian air force as well as additional units are on high alert, a fact which hasn't escaped Israel's attention.

The source added that even though Syria is playing a negative role in the latest crisis, he believes that it had no direct role in the outbreak of fighting.

"Syria is a negative factor, but it is not strong enough in order to instigate all these events," the source said.

7/15/2006 10:04:00 AM  
Blogger Charles said...

The interesting thing is that the sunni arabs are now more pro israeli than the europeans

///////////////////
Meanwhile, Lebanon sought support from fellow Arabs at an emergency session of foreign ministers in Cairo on Saturday. But sharp rifts erupted over as moderate Arab states denounced Hezbollah for starting the conflict.

Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal called the group's actions "unexpected, inappropriate and irresponsible," telling his counterparts: "These acts will pull the whole region back to years ago, and we cannot simply accept them."

Supporting his stance were representatives of Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Iraq, the Palestinian Authority, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, delegates said, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the talks.

Another camp, led by Syria, defended Hezbollah as carrying out "legitimate acts in line with international resolutions and the U.N. charter, as acts of resistance," delegates said.

Associated Press reporters Hussein Dakroub and Hamza Hendawi in Beirut; and AP photographer Nasser Nasser from south Lebanon contributed to this report.

07-15-06 11:24 EDT

7/15/2006 10:07:00 AM  
Blogger desert rat said...

Personally, tony,
I hope they do react like the Chinese at the Yalu.
The Chinese ended up dying in the hundreds of thousands, 250,000 in a single week.

There is no doubt in my mind as to the eventual victor in a Regional military adventure.

Without Sanctuary, no Insurgency can exist for long. Remove the Sanctuary and the Sponsors, the insurgents will wither, perhaps not in their hate, but in their capacity.

Daily car bombs in Damascus, against Turkish or Jordanian or Iraqi targets would not bother me much.

7/15/2006 10:07:00 AM  
Blogger desert rat said...

The Germans had no intention of attacking Poland, w.w., they kept saying that even as they entered Warsaw.

7/15/2006 10:10:00 AM  
Blogger bobalharb said...

Xerxes, according to Aeschylus, was a proud man. He tried to bridge the Hellespont, and practice imperialism on the Greeks. Hubris, according to Aeschylus is followed by nemesis.
Xerxes lost, and that's why. From "The Persians"--- Atossa--'From shore to shore he bridged the Hellespont'.

Ghost of Darius--'What, could he chain the mightly Bosphorous?'

Atossa--'Even so, some god assisting his design.'

Ghost of Darius--'Some god of power to cloud his better sense.'

Iran is fooling around with the gods, seems to me.

7/15/2006 10:11:00 AM  
Blogger Wu Wei said...

Here's an example of pure biased propaganda passing as news from Reuters:

Israel killed at least 32 civilians on Saturday, including 15 children, in air strikes meant to punish Lebanon for letting Hizbollah guerrillas menace the Jewish state's northern border.

7/15/2006 10:16:00 AM  
Blogger gokart-mozart said...

rat 9:29AM "Is it time to redraw the maps?"

Absolutely, fu**in' A!

The post-Sevres political structure of Arabia and the partition of India in 1948 have both precipitated untold mischief and a huge toll of human suffering.

Step One is, as you suggest, the renewal of Syria, adding Mesopotamia and the Transjordan and subtracting Latakia and Aleppo, which go back to Turkey where they belong.

Step Two is Kurdistan. Reward your friends and punish your enemies is fundamental.

Step Three is the reversal of the partition of India, with Baluchistan to Afghanistan, Punjab and Sindh to India, and NWFP/FATA a US protectorate.

7/15/2006 10:16:00 AM  
Blogger whit said...

WW you can count on al-Reuter and the BBC to chronicle the civilian death toll especially if the dead are not Israelis.

7/15/2006 10:18:00 AM  
Blogger whit said...

Lebanese are claiming Israel is destroying Lebanon but a Telegraph.co.uk reporter podcasting says that while Beirut is deserted, shells are not raining on the city but are directed to pockets in the south. As the hysteria ratches up ala Jenin, the anti-Zionist lobby will become more and more shrill.

Cover your ears.

7/15/2006 10:22:00 AM  
Blogger whit said...

Lebanese are claiming Israel is destroying Lebanon but a Telegraph.co.uk reporter podcasting says that while Beirut is deserted, shells are not raining on the city but are directed to pockets in the south. As the hysteria ratches up ala Jenin, the anti-Zionist lobby will become more and more shrill.

Cover your ears.

7/15/2006 10:23:00 AM  
Blogger rufus said...

We got This, the Islamo-fascists got "No Chance."

7/15/2006 10:26:00 AM  
Blogger allen said...

desert rat; 7:43 AM

Ain’t no mountain high enough
Ain’t no valley deep enough
Ain’t no river wide enough
To keep them from getting to you
(My sincere apologies to all those quite rightly offended.)

There is no substitute for victory!

7/15/2006 10:36:00 AM  
Blogger allen said...

2164th; 7:53 AM

You are right, there will always be jihadis; however, fanatics are not necessarily competent leaders.

Consider. Had the assassination attempt on Hitler been successful, Dresden would have survived and 100,000 Russian casualties would have been avoided in the taking of Berlin.

I do agree with your assessment of what appears to be a lack of forethought in filling the vacuum left by the demise of Syria and/or Hezbollah. Quite rightly, it must be instantly filled to the satisfaction of the West.

7/15/2006 10:46:00 AM  
Blogger allen said...

rufus; 9:16 AM

Oh! Yes! Yes! Yes!

Roarkes Drift

Zulu!!!!

7/15/2006 10:58:00 AM  
Blogger Wu Wei said...

Looks like Lebanon may be starting to cave:

Lebanese PM Siniora: After ceasefire, Lebanon`s army will deploy in south (Ch. 10)

7/15/2006 11:01:00 AM  
Blogger Starling David Hunter said...

A reporter for SkyNews, a UK-based cable news channel, is reporting that the UAV mentioned yesterday actually was used in advance of an attack on a top-secret Israeli military facility in the mountains in Northern Israel. I am not sure how much credence to give this. The reporter was transparently biased against Israel and he made another assertion repeatedly that simply defies logic. He claimed repeatedly that yes, Hezbollah was makign use of Iranian technology but that "there are no Iranians in Lebanon helping Hezbollah." He stated this twice- each time without equivocation- there are no Iranians here in Lebanon (where he is reporting from). How he knows this with absolute certainty he did not say and, to my dismay, the news anchor didn't even challenge the assertion.

This all leads me to another observation: the quality of discussion and analysis by our host and in the comment thread impress me as far better than what is being offered by many major media outlets.

7/15/2006 11:03:00 AM  
Blogger Aristides said...

Bill Kristol's advice:

For that matter, we might consider countering this act of Iranian aggression with a military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities. Why wait?

The answer to that question might be found in Kagan's essay of a few days ago:

And Bush would be patient. He would know that when dealing with the international community, including America's European allies, it is necessary to demonstrate that the diplomatic option has been tried and has failed. For the Europeans this means trying not once, not twice, not three times, but again and again and again and again, because at the end of the day they don't want to take any action against Iran. They must be brought along, step by tiny step, ever marginally closer to a decision until finally they must either come along or explicitly and embarrassingly retreat from their own public commitments. Bush would know he can be patient, because he does not need a resolution this month or even this year. He can keep pressing on the diplomatic front until a time of his choosing, at which point he can bring the matter to a head.

If this were Bush's strategy, he would know very well that the diplomatic track is likely to fail. He would know that Iran is unlikely to give up its program and accept the kind of intrusive inspections necessary to verify any deal. He would also know that the international community, at the end of the day, will probably refuse to support serious punitive actions against Iran. Even the European allies, let alone Russia and China, will balk at any sanctions that really have a chance of hurting the Iranian leadership. The Europeans will try to carry out a kind of Zeno's diplomacy, moving halfway toward decisive action, then another quarter of the way, then an eighth, then a sixteenth, and on and on, to avoid choosing between their two worst options: taking action against Iran, or visibly and embarrassingly retreating from taking action against Iran.

The likely failure of diplomacy would not deter Bush from pursuing it, however. If and when it failed, he would be able to choose the military course, and no fair person could accuse him of not having tried to bring the world along to do what had to be done. At least he would know in his own mind that he had sincerely given diplomacy a chance. And when he ordered the strike on Iran, he would know that, whatever else could be said about him, he would not go down in history as the man who let the mullahs have the bomb.


Right now we can afford to let events unfold as they will. If this conflict remains limited to Lebanon, then in a few months the Question of Iran will be right back at the top of the list. Worse for Iran and better for Bush, these current events will add urgency to the nuke talks by highlighting the character and intent of the Iranian regime. Iran's overreaching now could be an albatross we hang around its neck later.

If Bush has decided that, no matter what, Iran will be de-nuked, then the last thing we need is to be precipitous because we think we see a momentary advantage. If Iran stays out of the fight this time, we should be patient and play our original game. We can always bomb them, and we still have a chance to make that bombing diplomatically air-tight. We should use it.

If, however, Iran gets involved in the current conflict, then yes, we'll have to do it now. But that might not happen, and even if it does, we're not there yet.

Let events unfold.

(Of course, my advice to Israel remains the same. Targeted attacks against the supporting nodes in Syria and Iran while they can actually kill somebody.)

7/15/2006 11:08:00 AM  
Blogger Wu Wei said...

The Skynews reporter is wrong because Israel is now saying it was a missile, not a UAV.

7/15/2006 11:10:00 AM  
Blogger Wu Wei said...

Israel is going to declare martial law for some cities, because of the rocket attacks.

Defense Minister Amir Peretz was expected on Saturday evening to declare a "special security situation" in Israel, enabling certain cities to be subject to martial law. The status constitutes the second highest level of alert before an emergency status...

Under such a situation, the instructions given by the Home Front Command, previously considered recommendations, would become obligatory. Businesses, factories and schools may be ordered to be shut down, while the declaration is in effect.

It would also allow for businesses that would be closed following the extreme security status, to receive compensation for money lost.

7/15/2006 11:12:00 AM  
Blogger allen said...

aristides; 9:51 AM

I have no answers to your questions that I would want to live with. However, I do have a related question: Can Olmert's government survive being perceived as the cause of the present predicament?

7/15/2006 11:23:00 AM  
Blogger desert rat said...

The Israeli are saying that the UAV "mentioned yesterday actually was used in advance of an attack on a top-secret Israeli military facility in the mountains in Northern Israel..." was by missile, not UAV?

There was an attack on an Israeli mountain redoubt, but by missile, not UAV, confirmed by the Israeli???

7/15/2006 11:25:00 AM  
Blogger Utopia Parkway said...

Looks like Lebanon may be starting to cave:

Lebanese PM Siniora: After ceasefire, Lebanon`s army will deploy in south (Ch. 10)


This will of course not be good enough. Israel has demanded that their soldiers be returned before they will agree to a cease fire and Siniora didn't mention that in his statement (at least not in linked article). Also, the Israelis have demanded implementation of 1559, disarming of HB.

If Siniora guaranteed both those things Israel might stand down. I don't see it happening.

7/15/2006 11:28:00 AM  
Blogger Wu Wei said...

Prime Minister Fuad Saniora called Saturday for an immediate cease-fire brokered by the United Nations, to end Israel's land, sea and air offensive against Lebanon.

Addressing the nation four days into a devastating military blitz that targeted the country's infrastructure, Saniora, his voice cracking with emotion, pledged to reassert government authority all over Lebanese territory, an allusion to the possibility of deploying the Lebanese army in south Lebanon, which is effectively controlled by Hezbollah guerrillas.

Such a move would meet a repeated U.N. and U.S. demand.

7/15/2006 11:28:00 AM  
Blogger Aristides said...

Can Olmert's government survive being perceived as the cause of the present predicament?

Insofar as it was Olmert's perceived weakness in policy from which the dissatisfication derives, the political pressure to overcompensate in the other direction may be irresistible. There are a lot of factors at play, and everything is fluid; it's hard to see how it will ultimately congeal.

7/15/2006 11:32:00 AM  
Blogger Wu Wei said...

The IDF is Israeli military, so this is a confirmation it was a rocket, not UAV. (From Jerusalem Post)

An IDF investigation into the attack showed that Hizbullah had fired an Iranian-made C-802 missile at the vessel from the shores of Lebanon, said Brig.-Gen. Ido Nehushtan. The IDF responded by destroying all Lebanese radar stations along the coast.

A senior IDF intelligence official says that Iran has approximately 100 soldiers in Lebanon and that they helped Hizbullah hit an Israel Navy ship with an anti-ship missile.

"We can confirm that it was hit by an Iranian-made missile launched by Hizbullah. We see this as very profound fingerprint of Iranian involvement in Hizbullah," Nehushtan said in an interview with The Associated Press.

7/15/2006 11:32:00 AM  
Blogger Wu Wei said...

They also repaired the ship sufficiently to sail under its own control.

Israel Navy warship Hanit arrived at Ashdod port on Saturday evening.

The ship was struck Friday evening by an Iranian-made C-802 missile launched from Lebanon.

The ship was initially towed towards Israel, though it regained its sailing capabilities en route, and continued to Ashdod under its own power.

7/15/2006 11:36:00 AM  
Blogger desert rat said...

This is no more Mr Olmert's "fault" than 9-11 was Mr Bush's. The Policies of Mr Sharon & Mr Olmert's resume were just ratified in their election. The Israeli knew who and what they were voting for. As did the Palistinians.

Not much talk of leaving the West Bank, now.

He seems to be handling the "sea change" well, so far.

7/15/2006 11:37:00 AM  
Blogger desert rat said...

w.w., sterling was talking about
the UAV mentioned yesterday actually was used in advance of an attack on a top-secret Israeli military facility in the mountains in Northern Israel

Was that attack confirmed, not by UAV but by missile?
Was an attack on a mountain base confirmed at all?

7/15/2006 11:39:00 AM  
Blogger Wu Wei said...

I think Lebanon saying "uncle" is enough to start the process. IMO Israel will now focus on Hezbollah, being careful not to hit the Lebanese government while the details are being negotiated. Israel will definitely not agree to the immediate cease fire, but may be able to change the targeting somewhat. There is no need to hit the non-Hezbollah part of Lebanon if they are prepared to cooperate.

7/15/2006 11:41:00 AM  
Blogger Wu Wei said...

I haven't heard of any attack on Israeli military facilities other than by Hezbollah's standard rockets. They definitely have targeted those facilities, in fact the defense minister was at one while it was attacked, but as far as I know they were Katyushka rockets.

7/15/2006 11:43:00 AM  
Blogger Starling David Hunter said...

WuWei: I should have clarified... when I wrote "actually was used in advance of an attack on a top-secret Israeli military facility in the mountains in Northern Israel." I meant that he reported that the UAV was involved, perhaps in spotting the location (I think this was his remark) and that a missile hit the mountain redoubt based on info provided by the UAV. And that, the SkyNews reporter claimed, was done without any help from Iranians because they are not there.

7/15/2006 11:44:00 AM  
Blogger Utopia Parkway said...

Aristedes,

Would Ohmert's government survive a weak and partial solution to this crisis? Is that a factor in all this?

There has been some analysis that suggests that Olmert's reason for being so uncompromising regarding the Gaza incident was that he is new and trying to prove himself and that he is still under Sharon's shadow. Mostly that was at Haaretz, fwiw. I don't think he's merely trying to prove himself. I think he's doing what the Israelis have said they would do since they withdrew from Leb and Gaza.

I don't think he is being tough just to be tough. Even Mubarek reported that a deal was close to being agreed on in which Shalit would be returned and Israel would release prisoners at a later date. So Olmert was being flexible in order to solve the crisis. Mubarek said the deal was broken because of unnamed outside influences on Hamas, which were assumed to be Syria and/or Iran.

All sides are blustering and perhaps exagerating what they can do or will do. Israel certainly has the power to back up their statements but they may not be intending to do things that they say. Right? It's a war.

Regarding a solution to the crisis I think that at a minimum Israel has to push HB back from the border and regain all their kidnapped soldiers, or their bodies (if it is at all humanely possible). I don't think they have to destroy Syria and Iran for this crises to be considered a success by the Israeli public. The term they always use is "changing the rules of the game." These rules must be changed big-time for a victory to be claimed.

I do agree though that Olmert's job is on the line. If he makes bad mistakes or appears weak he could be out in a matter of days. He is a politician as well as commander-in-chief so I'm sure he's well aware of the political ramifications of his actions.

7/15/2006 11:51:00 AM  
Blogger Tony said...

SDH, I agree with you, we have finally crossed the threshhold where the Web (Belmont, Pajamas, commenters) are more informative than TV. I have always believed that TV had the edge when it comes to breaking events like this, because they have reporters on the ground, and the global communications to deliver live info from the zone. But now, the sheer volume of input is overwhelming the few "stories" that the networks will follow, and the number of "reporters" and "analysts" on the web dwarfs the network sources.

We have crossed the chasm, the Web has become the Eyes of the World.

Meanwhile, the MSM is basically spreading Arab propaganda. My local Inky, running the AP story, includes such boners as these:
1. the hundreds of guys who ran through the blown-down border from Egypt to Gaza were "students and patients who were trapped there since the Rafah closing." GUFFAW!
2. Hezbollah has developed these so far mythical drones on their own. GUFFAW!
3. They quote some guy out of the blue as speaking for all Lebanese, saying they will all fight to the death. GUFFAW!

If this was an anti-ship missile, it probably had radar-guidance technologies imported by IRAN from China or Russia, or at least developed in Iran. If this was a drone, it would need secure comms and telemetry channels, in addition to all of the sophistication required of the airframe to follow remote piloting commands. There's no way Hezbollah has these capabilities. It's Iran's.

And if these are cutting-edge Iranian military devices, you can bet they didn't just put them in a container and ship them to Lebanon. They would absolutley need skilled operators and technicians.

If it goes up one more notch, and we start seeing Silkworms and such advanced Chicomm or Soviet weapons, heavy suppressive bombardments will soon follow.

All the while, I think of the weeks I spent in Iran in '77, the kindness of the family that put me up for a week in their apartment to return a favor I happened to render to someone I met on the bus through Turkey. I remember walking the streets of what was then a very modern part of the Middle East. We must remember that we are at war with Islamofascists, not their oppressed peoples.

In places like "Palestine," Sadr City and Ramadi, it's hard to tell the difference, I know. But they are the cancers, they are not the body.

7/15/2006 11:53:00 AM  
Blogger bobalharb said...

Earlier on there was talk of Israel forming a broad based emergency government. Haven't heard any more of that lately.

7/15/2006 11:56:00 AM  
Blogger Tony said...

"A senior IDF officer said the ship was struck by an Iranian-made C802 missile "

7/15/2006 12:01:00 PM  
Blogger Wu Wei said...

I think there hasn't been a need for the emergency government, so the current coalition has stuck together. Probably figuring, why let the opposition share in the political gains from war? The main reason to expand the coalition would be to bring right wingers in if the current partners wouldn't go far enough in the war. So far that wasn't necessary.

7/15/2006 12:05:00 PM  
Blogger Utopia Parkway said...

If it goes up one more notch, and we start seeing Silkworms and such advanced Chicomm or Soviet weapons, heavy suppressive bombardments will soon follow.

If it was a C-802 missile then this is a Chicomm design, sold to the Iranians and it is similar to or more advanced than the Silkworm.

If the Israelis destroyed all the radar installations on the coast, as mentioned above, this makes sense. This missile has an inertial guidance system, used during cruise phase to get the missile near to its target, and a radar guidance system, used when close to the target to find the target. The land-based radars would have been used to find the warship prior to launch, since it was about ten miles out.

7/15/2006 12:05:00 PM  
Blogger Cutler said...

"SDH, I agree with you, we have finally crossed the threshhold where the Web (Belmont, Pajamas, commenters) are more informative than TV. I have always believed that TV had the edge when it comes to breaking events like this, because they have reporters on the ground, and the global communications to deliver live info from the zone. But now, the sheer volume of input is overwhelming the few "stories" that the networks will follow, and the number of "reporters" and "analysts" on the web dwarfs the network sources."

The TV news has become almost completely useless. Wrapped in their groupthink and developed narratives ("cycle of violence"), they're often nothing but agitprop. Israel's biggest danger is the neutralization of its greatest ally by the false media narrative of two equally guilty parties who for some reason, just can't stop fighting. Within that context, Israeli methods look like overkill.

However, with a few minutes of analysis, often draped in 70s mindsets and narratives, that's the best these overpaid talking heads can do.

7/15/2006 12:07:00 PM  
Blogger Wu Wei said...

It looks like I guessed right:

> 21:58 Sources close to [Israeli] PM [Prime Minister]: Lebanon`s call for ceasefire step in right direction (Ch. 10)

7/15/2006 12:08:00 PM  
Blogger Cutler said...

"The TV news has become almost completely useless."

I exaggerate a bit, the occasional guest appearance by someone such as Dennis Ross can be very informative. But even there, the news format is too limiting in comparison with a written one.

7/15/2006 12:10:00 PM  
Blogger Cutler said...

"And Bush would be patient. He would know that when dealing with the international community, including America's European allies, it is necessary to demonstrate that the diplomatic option has been tried and has failed. For the Europeans this means trying not once, not twice, not three times, but again and again and again and again, because at the end of the day they don't want to take any action against Iran. They must be brought along, step by tiny step, ever marginally closer to a decision until finally they must either come along or explicitly and embarrassingly retreat from their own public commitments."

Kagan's essay is very good. At some point, however, we need to assert that these aren't allies, except in the lowest common definition of the term. People who have to be cajoled to act in their best interests, simply because they dislike your nation and accent, are not worth the term - even if they contribute a few thousands troops to Afghanistan as a sop to reality.

7/15/2006 12:13:00 PM  
Blogger dhherion said...

Pull Syria into the West orbit


We need to think more strategically. While Syria is a nasty regime so were the Egyptians and the Chicoms but we were able to bring the Egyptians over to our side and force out the Russians and break up the Chinese-Soviet marriage. Syria is broke and dependent on Iranian cash for survival but that comes with a price. The West can easily provide more that, including the Golan Heights (down the road). If we could pull off that coup, Iran would be alone, cut off and their Hizbollah allies would be isolated in Southern Lebanon where they can be disarmed or starved out.

The alternative strategy of ending the Assad regime would only result in Syria's take over by Iranian proxies. Not a good move in my opinion.

7/15/2006 12:13:00 PM  
Blogger Wu Wei said...

from CNN: Israel would agree to a cease fire under terms of UN resolutions

An Israel Foreign Ministry spokesman responded to Siniora's remarks, saying that Lebanon triggered the crisis by failing to disarm Hezbollah.

"This whole crisis was initiated by aggression by Lebanon into Israel," said Mark Regev.

If Siniora "had done his job correctly," followed relevant U.N. Security Council resolutions and disarmed Hezbollah, "this crisis would have been averted," Regev added.

Israel is willing to implement a cease-fire in accordance with those resolutions, he said.

7/15/2006 12:19:00 PM  
Blogger Starling David Hunter said...

Cutler said: "The TV news has become almost completely useless. Wrapped in their groupthink and developed narratives ("cycle of violence"), they're often nothing but agitprop."

I feel inclined to agree with that assessment. The TV news is, in many regards, publishing what might best be called political pornography. And I, being the red-blooded American male that I am, do watch it...but only for the pictures. ;-)

On a serious note, I have really begun to wonder if the day is fast approaching when if you don't read blogs you aren't well informed on a topic.

The major networks are certainly good for being able to have people on the ground, but they can't be everywhere and are often reliant on, and hence beholden to, locals to get the to certain locations. This undoubtedly skews their coverage.

The internet, digital cameras, cellphones with cameras, and a host of other technologies are combining to make it possible for more than one story to get out. This is news to no reader here, of course, but it is interesting to see how Pajamas and TTLB are providing access to voices and views that the major media is either unaware of or doesn't care to know about.

7/15/2006 12:21:00 PM  
Blogger Cedarford said...

Interesting on the C802 missile. It was a big flap back in 1997 as Newt Gingrich led the charge for Clintom to demand China stop selling them to Iran. China did after selling 60, but appears to have given designs for the appropriate Petrodollar sum. Then Iran set out to build an advanced version with full help of N Korean technical advisors.

Now it appears Iran indeed has exported high tech weaponry to Hezbollah terrorists without full Gov't of Lebanon knowledge - an item covered by missile proliferation treaties.

Yes, it just gets worse. Wait till the Iranians lob a few into the Straights of Hormuz or a commercial airliner is downed by Hezbollah using a Chinese or Russian manpads system sold to the Government of Iran....

Or missiles are launched by terrorists who have Iranian nerve gas warheads. That's WWIII.

That ought to be interesting for the Quisling Wing of the Democratic Party seeing a major war and determined to fight the Draft at all costs - who previously argued that they would be foursquare behind "whatever it takes" to stop a nation giving WMD and missiles to terrorists.

===========================
2164th - Sorry Whit. I can count. One and a half billion Muslims. Go to war with all. You lose.

Then why didn't you advocate surrendering to the 1.1 billion Chinese, since numbers seem so important to you in predicting war outcome? If we go to war with China, given they have 1.1 billion, and we might fight them with 700 million US and allied...why bother because the population edge appears in your mind to make Chinese victory certain.

Or is it only the Islamoids that are 10 feet tall and all but invincible in war?

Your previous post about the futility of "decapitating" ideological terrorist movements made more sense. There, yes, the talent pool all but assures the Binnies and Sheikh Yassims get replaced with some other equally competent leader.

In full, unrestrained warfare? Even without the Euroweenies being involved? Muslims lose, Chinese lose.
=======================
Tony - It's just another dumb luck accident by stupid Bush / Rumsfeld and their fiasco in the Middle East that we are better militarily positioned to support Israel against all of their traditional enemies than we ever have been before.

Sarcasm aside in your post - which is surely one of the last voices out there extolling the genius of Rumsfeld and your Beloved Maximum War Leader, the purpose of American National Security is NOT to have it's highest objective "Support Israel's Interests".

If the value of 25,000 casualties many maimed or dead, 700 billion in US treasure lost to China & Japan underwiting loans, and more tax cuts for the wealthy - is all so we are better positioned to address Israel's needs - Iraq isn't worth it.

The US must never ally with Israel in a war our other allies see as in part due to Israeli aggression. We have no defense treaty with them, no Pact obligating us. We should keep it that way.

If it is in our interests, if WMD are used, then we can and must get involved.

7/15/2006 12:30:00 PM  
Blogger Habu_1 said...

Kudos to PossumTater for identifying the hit on the Israeli warship as a missile NOT a flying gnat.
That was back at 2:55 on "The Veto,Fajers, and the road to..a'

Sometimes those folks get it right before the brights do.

7/15/2006 12:33:00 PM  
Blogger allen said...

desert rat; 11:37 AM

Golda Meir and Moshe Dayan are Israeli icons. Nevertheless, they are generally considered to have been ill prepared and myopic in 1973, permitting Israel to suffer near defeat at the initiation of the Yom Kippur War. It is not unreasonable to consider the Sharon/Olmert government just so with respect to both Gaza and Lebanon. Just as in 1973, the Arabs have not been reluctant to state their objectives and act accordingly. The refusal of the Olmert government to listen is, in fact reminiscent of 1973.

7/15/2006 12:41:00 PM  
Blogger Tony said...

Utopia - yup.

This could start looking like the Falklands War, where two well- but not evenly-equipped modern militaries clash.

Considering the Falklands, where the Brits used the nuke hunter-killer sub HMS Challenger to sink the Gen. Belgrano, and the Argentines used Super Etenards to deliver Exocets on the HMS Sheffield ... the Israelis are acting like Americans, fighting with their hands in their pockets.

Interesting snip from Wikipedia's page on the Falklands War:

In 2005, a book written by President Mitterrand's psychoanalyst, Ali Magoudi, gave a different account of French co-operation, quoting him as saying: "I had a difference to settle with the Iron Lady. That Thatcher, what an impossible woman! With her four nuclear submarines in the South Atlantic, she's threatening to unleash an atomic weapon against Argentina if I don't provide her with the secret codes that will make the missiles we sold the Argentinians deaf and blind." [4]

It is not clear how the Argentines were able to launch all of their available missiles.

7/15/2006 12:43:00 PM  
Blogger Wu Wei said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

7/15/2006 12:45:00 PM  
Blogger Wu Wei said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

7/15/2006 12:54:00 PM  
Blogger Tony said...

Cedah,

one of the last voices out there extolling the genius of Rumsfeld and your Beloved Maximum War Leader - Thank you!

But, you know I don't bicker.

We tried the not fighting back thing all through the 90's, and that got us to 9/11. Ergo, not fighting back is once again proven to not be a good strategy in war.

The Islamofascists would be doing what they are doing now, and more, if we were doing something else. Seeing their aggression as inevitable, we are much better positioned to confront them than we were previous to OIF.

Remember, we're the GREAT Satan, Israel is just Lil Satan Jr.

7/15/2006 12:56:00 PM  
Blogger desert rat said...

Back when Israel vacated the Gaza many here said, "just wait" the hammer will hit the anvil.
Well that opportunity is upon Israel, in spades.
As per plan, according to some.

Will they roll on out, cleansing the problem as promised, or roll on home, in another week to 10 days?

Leaving south Lebanon to the Lebanonese Army, which is less effective, no doubt, than the ISF.

That is no viable long term solution for Israel.

7/15/2006 12:56:00 PM  
Blogger Wu Wei said...

The problem with the no holds barred war theory of just blasting everyone is that it doesn't work. Everytime it has been tried it fails. In Vietnam we carpet bombed, naplam'd, used daisy cutters and everything else we could think of. Saddam Hussein gassed 100,000 Iranians and still couldn't win the Iran - Iraq war.

I don't know why anyone would think that everyone will give up just because they see others get killed. Many people are not that weak. Some men were tortured by Saddam Hussein, lost an eye or a limb, and still kept coming at him.

If China got the upper hand and started carpet bombing in the US, would you give up and support Mao's People's Republic of America?

7/15/2006 12:57:00 PM  
Blogger trish said...

"There is only one way to accomplish this; eliminate their state sponsors. Anything short of regime change is wasted effort."

whit

The only way we're getting regime change anytime soon is by putting something in the water.

That I guarantee.

7/15/2006 12:59:00 PM  
Blogger wei wu said...

Yes,Possumtater did a good job

7/15/2006 01:02:00 PM  
Blogger Wu Wei said...

WOW! There are no details yet. Maybe the UN is useful for something.

> U.N. council unanimously votes for weapons-related sanctions on N. Korea

7/15/2006 01:03:00 PM  
Blogger Wu Wei said...

The U.N. Security Council voted unanimously on Saturday to impose weapons-related sanctions on North Korea in response to its flurry of missile tests that provoked an international outcry.

The resolution demands that North Korea "suspend all activities related to its ballistic missile program." It requires all U.N. members to prevent imports to or exports from North Korea of missiles and missile-related items as well as materials and funds that could be used in weapons of mass destruction programs.

To avert a veto from China, the resolution does not mention Chapter 7 of the U.N. Charter, a provision used to make council documents legally binding. But Security Council members said the resolution was nonetheless mandatory because of the way it was worded.

7/15/2006 01:06:00 PM  
Blogger desert rat said...

If Japan and the United States reach an agreement with China and Russia to accept the compromise plan, the Security Council could adopt the proposal unanimously. A vote on the final resolution and its adoption by the Security Council was possible by as early as Saturday afternoon.

In the revised draft, the passage stating that the Security Council would "act under Chapter 7 of the U.N. Charter," was changed to "act under Article 40 of Chapter 7" and excluded the possibility of military action or economic sanctions.

Article 40 stipulates that to prevent an aggravation of the situation, the Security Council may call upon the parties concerned to comply with such "provisional measures" as are deemed necessary or desirable. Article 41 stipulates economic sanctions and Article 42 enables the Security Council to use force.

But China also opposed the use of Chapter 7 itself in the revised draft, stressing it would veto a resolution that mentions it.

According to Security Council sources, following the failure of Japan and China to reach an agreement on the revised draft resolution, Britain and France proposed the deletion of Article 40 from the draft amendment in the Friday night meeting. As an alternative, the wording "the Security Council should act under the special responsibility to maintain international peace and safety" was used. Chinese Ambassador to the United Nations Wang Guangya showed his intention to support the compromise proposal and to pitch the proposal to his government.

U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton told reporters after the closed meeting that it would be possible for the United States to support a resolution that does not mention Chapter 7, which is the first hint that the United States would be willing to omit references to the chapter in the resolution.

The revised draft also changes the wording that the missile launches by North Korea are seen "as a threat to international peace and safety" to saying they "endanger regional peace, security and safety."

The initial draft resolution also "requires" U.N. member nations not to transfer or procure materials that would contribute to Pyongyang's nuclear development. The revised draft changes "requires" to "calls for."
27 minutes old for background

7/15/2006 01:08:00 PM  
Blogger Habu_1 said...

ww
it worked in vietnam. both giap and ho were ready to capitulate before Walter Cronkite and the left gave the commies enough moxie to continue.
it is entirely possible to pile the rubble and bodies high enough to win by airpower. it also demoralizes the crap out of the population.

7/15/2006 01:09:00 PM  
Blogger wei wu do u said...

the UN is meaningless, their resolutions a farce,

7/15/2006 01:23:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

U.S. plans 'air bridge' out of Lebanon, officials say

7/15/2006 01:27:00 PM  
Blogger Red River said...

WW Said

"Saddam Hussein gassed 100,000 Iranians and still couldn't win the Iran - Iraq war."

Iraq crushed Iran in 1988 when they went from a static front strategy to armored manuevers.

In six locations over six months, Iraqi Republican Guards using combined arms tactics penetrated over 100 km into Iran and encircled key towns and terrain.

Iran sued for peace in a panic.

Had Iraq wanted to do so, they could have held onto large parts of Iran, but they pulled back.

Iraq won the war in 1988.

7/15/2006 01:31:00 PM  
Blogger desert rat said...

go mika go!

7/15/2006 01:32:00 PM  
Blogger eighteen wheeler said...

What will happen to the Labor Day weekend if gas is expensive?

7/15/2006 01:33:00 PM  
Blogger bobalharb said...

What will happen to harvest if I can't get diesel?! I'm buying Monday.

7/15/2006 01:39:00 PM  
Blogger Red River said...

Very good summary of the Falklands War.

There were a number of successful SAS raids.

http://www.naval-history.net/NAVAL1982FALKLANDS.htm

7/15/2006 01:45:00 PM  
Blogger UnemployedCapitalist said...

"The problem with the no holds barred war theory of just blasting everyone is that it doesn't work. Everytime it has been tried it fails." - Wu Wei (the divine path)

You are correct, in modern times. Modern wars are fought militarily, economically and politically. Oh, sorry, they have always been fought that way...... As all wars are fought this way, the only argument you are making is for your "wu wei" methods. Is there any casus belli that is justifiable?

7/15/2006 01:52:00 PM  
Blogger Red River said...

bobalharb:

We start field work Aug 15th. Coop tells me they are fully stocked on all inputs as are their upstream suppliers. I had some issues getting enough Nitrate last fall so was concerned.

I also know from VP at Motiva that US reserve tanks are almost full for both feedstock and refined products.

7/15/2006 01:56:00 PM  
Blogger M. Simon said...

Uh, it takes Israel about six days to fully mobilize. We are at day four.

Patience.

Besides the moon phase is wrong.

7/15/2006 02:02:00 PM  
Blogger desert rat said...

Unless, bob, you want to bet on the futures value of the diesel.
It'll be available, the Stategic Reserves are also full, but at what price?

I wouldn't be shorting gasoline, diesel or oil for November.

7/15/2006 02:02:00 PM  
Blogger bobalharb said...

RR--I start about the same time. Not really worried but checking it out Monday, may well buy. Thanks.

7/15/2006 02:04:00 PM  
Blogger Wu Wei said...

Officials at the Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's office responded to the ceasefire request by Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Siniora and said that dismantling the Hizbullah and deploying the Lebanese army along the Israeli-Lebanese border are some of the objectives of the IDF operation. They also said that "There won't be ceasefire until the two abducted soldiers are returned."

7/15/2006 02:13:00 PM  
Blogger Wu Wei said...

Looks like a screw up prevented the missile attack on the Israeli ship from being intercepted.
Link

Initial probe into attack on missile boat Friday reveals Navy had no intelligence of possible missile threat in area where boat was operating; missile, aircraft interception system was turned off due to presence of IDF planes in sector
-----------------
The actions taken by crewmembers of the IDF missile boat that sustained a direct Hizbullah missile hit Friday, prevented a great disaster that could have resulted in numerous casualties, an initial inquiry into the incident reveals.

Brigadier-General Noam Page of the Navy said in a press conference Saturday that the Navy was unaware that a missile threat existed in the sector, and that the boat's crew had acted accordingly.

Missile boats are equipped with a missile interception system capable of automatically intercepting any missile or aircraft approaching it. However, as the boat was operating in an area where a large number of IDF planes were present, the Navy had refrained from activating the system.

Navy sources said that had they known the Hizbullah was in possession of missiles of the type used against the boat Saturday, the missile interception system would have been turned on.

7/15/2006 02:19:00 PM  
Blogger 2164th said...

C-4,

Numbers are important if you engage in a war of attrition. We have a political system that will not support it. What is the daily casualty count today? It is in some paper.

I prefer disinformation, stealth, economics, politics, alliances, assasinations, proxy, surrogates and when necessary hard fought conventional. I think we can get the right Muslims to kill the proper Islamists using a combination of the above. I do not care how it is done as long as it works. I am sure we could all drink to that.

7/15/2006 02:34:00 PM  
Blogger allen said...

This from Austin Bay. I feel much better now.

"Unfortunately, Iran has the petro-dollars to reconstitute Hezbollah– unless the Lebanese can act in concert with the Israelis to police terrorists using Lebanese territory. To truly police terrorists in Lebanon –which entails denying them logistics support as well as territory for bases– means regime change in Syria. Dealing Hezbollah more than a temporary defeat means terminating the Assad regime in Damascus."

7/15/2006 02:41:00 PM  
Blogger eighteen wheeler said...

I have all my hope and faith in the UN finding the right resolution for ending this tragic situation.
It appears that in a world full of computers someone miscalculated. How can that be?
Can Iran find feng shui or earthly harmonic balance?
Can we, the few truckers, survive?
Can we deliver bread to the hungry, donuts to the cops, and iPods to our children?
The madness must stop,just like my truck will when gas is no longer available.
We must do it for the Special Olympics and the Amish.

7/15/2006 02:43:00 PM  
Blogger 2164th said...

18 whlr.....sort of for home and shoe-fly-pie.

7/15/2006 02:47:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

WoW!
Holistic Trucker!
Cool!

7/15/2006 02:49:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

I bet he brakes lightly for Global Warming.
As well as children.

7/15/2006 02:52:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

"brakes"
whatever

7/15/2006 02:53:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

I thought I wrote "breaks"!!!
Just shows I shouldn't second guess myself like that.
At least w/o checking first.

7/15/2006 02:55:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

2:19 PM,
If I know the house is going to catch fire, I'll put batteries in the fire alarm before I go to bed.

7/15/2006 02:59:00 PM  
Blogger eighteen wheeler said...

In a world gone mad few understand the trama of losing a tire carcass on the interstate.
or
the metronomic thumping of a road kill caught between the rear duelies ..ka-thump,ka-thump and the the silence of the lambs or whatever you flattened.
Oh the humanity.
Koffi, show us the way. Show us the GPS power you control.
sic semper flat tires.

7/15/2006 03:04:00 PM  
Blogger Wu Wei said...

Jerusalem Post
48-72 hours left?
Lebanon continues to shoot rockets, so they have no cause to complain about no cease fire.

Israel believes it has a 48-72-hour "window of opportunity" to pound Hizbullah and damage its operational capabilities before the world steps in and stops the fighting, senior diplomatic officials in Jerusalem said Saturday night.

The officials noted positively that Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Saniora had said Saturday at a press conference that his government would reassert government authority over all Lebanese territory - an allusion to the possibility of deploying the Lebanese army in south Lebanon, which is effectively controlled by Hizbullah.

Senior sources in the Prime Minister's Office said that dislodging Hizbullah from southern Lebanon and getting the government in Beirut to assert its authority over the area as called for by UN Security Council Resolution 1559 were among the primary goals of the IDF's current campaign. However, the officials said, the two abducted IDF soldiers also needed to be returned.

"It is a good plan," one senior diplomatic official said of Saniora's statement. "The big question is whether he has the ability to do it."

The official said the deployment of Lebanon's army south would be a good way out of the crisis. "But Israel would also like more time to inflict more damage on Hizbullah's operational capabilities," he said.

"It's an excellent declaration but he doesn't need our permission...We have to see what they do and not what they say," Vice Premier Shimon Peres told Israel's Channel 2 TV. He said Lebanon has to prove it is serious by deploying on the southern border. "A foreign body has entered the area and it's your job to get them out of there," he said.

7/15/2006 03:05:00 PM  
Blogger allen said...

I need some help understanding the enclosed blog from Beirut.

If I understand correctly, the Spanish government had the foresight or the forewarning to evacuate some of its citizens before the airport's closure.

If the Spanish Ministry of Defense had forewarning, how? From whom? Did the US?

Much food for thought is found in this blog.

http://remarkze.blogspot.com/2006/07/
repatriation.html

Found at http://truthlaidbear.com/mideastcrisis.php

7/15/2006 03:08:00 PM  
Blogger eighteen wheeler said...

wu wei, wu wei baby, won't you let me take you on a sea cruise?

resolutions to the right of them, resolutions to the left of them,
volleyed and thundered,
stormed at with shot and shell,
into the jaws of death,
into the mouth of hell,
road the eighteen wheeler

7/15/2006 03:19:00 PM  
Blogger Wu Wei said...

The Korean War and Desert Storm 1 both came from UN resolutions.

It just takes awhile to get to the one that counts.

North Korea "totally rejects" the U.N. Security Council resolution condemning its recent series of missile tests, its U.N. ambassador said on Saturday.

"It is clear to everyone that there is no need for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea to unilaterally put on hold the missile launches under such a situation," Ambassador Pak Gil Yon told the council following the vote, using his country's formal name.

The measure had "the despicable aim of isolating and putting pressure" on his government, he said. "The DPRK's missile development therefore serves as a key to keep the balance of force and preserving peace and stability in Northeast Asia."



The envoy's remarks prompted a sharp retort from U.S. Ambassador John Bolton.

"This has been a historic day. Not only have we unanimously adopted Resolution 1695, but North Korea has set a world record in rejecting it within 45 minutes after its adoption," Bolton said.

7/15/2006 03:28:00 PM  
Blogger Papa Ray said...

"The DPRK's missile development therefore serves as a key to keep the balance of force and preserving peace and stability in Northeast Asia.""

What he is really saying is that [it] is going to get us lots of money and other assistance and they are not going to stop until it does.

They may be in for a disappointing time.

Papa Ray
West Texas
USA

7/15/2006 03:34:00 PM  
Blogger whit said...

I said that anything short of regime change is wasted effort.

Trish guaranteed it wouldn't happen.

I might as well leave the theatre now and demand my money back.

7/15/2006 03:36:00 PM  
Blogger whit said...

ABC is showing footage of the civilian suffering in Lebanon including the body of a young girl. This, from the network which won't show the Sept 11 video.

I'm sorry for the suffering but this is what happens when you make a deal with the devil. Harboring terrorists in your midst can be hazardous to your health. This is the lesson which must be taught.

7/15/2006 03:40:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Isn't that "play" on Wu we verging on Cultural Insensitivity?
Maybe he's only partially hole.

7/15/2006 03:44:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Dang It!
"Whole"

7/15/2006 03:44:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Probly just partial to holes.

7/15/2006 03:45:00 PM  
Blogger Papa Ray said...

Austin Bay said:"Dealing Hezbollah more than a temporary defeat means terminating the Assad regime in Damascus."

The source is in Iran, the source of most of the recruits, most of it's money and all of it's hate.

The only way to terminiate these thugs is to kill them. Not prison, they will just be let loose sometime in the future, plus there are way too many of them to deal with.

Papa Ray
West Texas
USA

7/15/2006 03:49:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Allen, 3:08 PM:
GWB and Fox had a "session" kind of like a seance, where they were channeling
Karnack the Magnificent on
"Borders and Spanish Speaking Peoples"
That's what came out of it.

7/15/2006 03:54:00 PM  
Blogger whit said...

I know it's been said all day but that Vlad; he's gone over to the dark side.

7/15/2006 03:54:00 PM  
Blogger allen said...

If true, the following report by Yourish helps explain the media’s ease in getting gory civilian casualty film. Arabs are consummate warriors.

http://www.yourish.com/2006/07/15/1675
“Hezbullah war crimes”

7/15/2006 03:58:00 PM  
Blogger eighteen wheeler said...

Ain't no virgin sensiclitity in Islamland. and't no borders over ther neither.

Wu wei's a good fella, knows what to write and writes it,keps us informed. I'm all for informed folks..just got a tune rambling round and got to come out.
hell, i figure the UN is a waste full of hateful at Americans types. can't abide that on our turf.
mostly sissy's too.
give me a good grade of kool aid and and we'd have a bunch of one eyed one hornd flyin purpul people eaters

7/15/2006 04:00:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Trish said,
"The only way we're getting regime change anytime soon is by putting something in the water.

That I guarantee.
"
---
Tony votes for the New Jersey.
I'll vote for Gators.
---
Teach them suiciders to carry pet gators around, then when the virgins call, get themselves swallowed in crowded Malls.

7/15/2006 04:08:00 PM  
Blogger allen said...

doug; 3:54 PM

No! No! No!

If the two had been channeling, Hezbollah would simply empty the refugee camps and march the “immigrants” across the Israeli border. Mr. Bush and Mr. Fox would wildly applaud such a violation of Israel’s nation sovereignty. The Vatican would canonize Mr. Nasrallah. The blind would see. The deaf would hear. The dead would live. Oh, what a wonderful world it would be, much like parts of Los Angeles.

Someone really has to have a talk with Hezbollah and explain the facts of life.

7/15/2006 04:09:00 PM  
Blogger whit said...

Habu:
Do you think Possum Tater knows what alter ego means?

7/15/2006 04:09:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Green People Eaters.

7/15/2006 04:11:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

4:09 PM
Habu:
That's when you got a swelled head, and they order your ego altered.

7/15/2006 04:13:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Sometimes they just convert you into a preacher, and give you an
Altar Ego.

7/15/2006 04:14:00 PM  
Blogger whit said...

I am quite sure that Habu invited that illerate redneck, PossumTater, into this club.

7/15/2006 04:16:00 PM  
Blogger wup sum said...

harvest the hills
that the sythe be sharp

and work with the UN
and play the harp

you can do both,a good heart it takes
cause all the diplomats are bull crap fakes

7/15/2006 04:18:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

allen 4:09 PM,
They'll blow up Jewish Children that Jews aren't willing to explode.
A Diverse workforce is an adaptable workforce.

7/15/2006 04:18:00 PM  
Blogger whit said...

I can't spell and I'm calling PossumTater illiterate. :)

7/15/2006 04:18:00 PM  
Blogger wup sum said...

schizophrenia, you're never alone

7/15/2006 04:23:00 PM  
Blogger desert rat said...

When ol' Fidel finally falls off the stage, what is Raul gonna do, enter stage left, or bow out.

Let me think now ...

Think they'd cancel the October suprise?

7/15/2006 04:33:00 PM  
Blogger allen said...

doug; 4:18 PM

For all their purported studious observation of the West, the Iranians and Hezbollah have failed to learn a lesson from Mr. Bush that would entirely change the character of the ME, in particular, Israel, without firing a shot. You see, unrestricted immigration is a policy fully supported by Mr. Bush. By this process, a nation’s historic paradigm and demographic constitution can be utterly overturned; all with a smile, a handshake, and a “Hale friend, well met.”

For every human problem there is a solution which is quick, easy, and wrong, someone said, I think. It was not Mr. Bush, I am fairly certain.

7/15/2006 04:37:00 PM  
Blogger Bub said...

President Bush deserves a huge amount of credit for appointing John Bolton ambassador to the UN.

7/15/2006 04:37:00 PM  
Blogger wup sum said...

Hominids united for freedom from PossumTater persecution. join now

endorsed by bloggers everywhere

7/15/2006 04:39:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Rat, know much about these 155's?

7/15/2006 04:41:00 PM  
Blogger desert rat said...

allen
That's "Yale friend, we met"

Texican rhetoric, Bostonian policy.

7/15/2006 04:43:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

All Hat.
All Wet.

7/15/2006 04:44:00 PM  
Blogger desert rat said...

Not me, Jr would, he was, is 'til 15 Aug, the cannon cocker in the clan.

Big guns and tanks, always seemed like targets to stay away from, to me.

Jeeps & 5 ton dump trucks, airlifted mini dozers and demo were more in my line of active military experience.
Cuttin' trees for LZs & stuff.

7/15/2006 04:50:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

The long war.
The short sun.
Essay material.

7/15/2006 05:02:00 PM  
Blogger Habu_1 said...

So has the ME problem been identified yet ..with certitude?

Who's on first?

7/15/2006 05:02:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

"son"
damn, that's what I get for foolin around.
fergit how to spel.

7/15/2006 05:03:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

We,
Who else?

7/15/2006 05:04:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

"Wei"
If "we" were, we'd be out.

7/15/2006 05:05:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Argument with Ump:
"Who, We???"

7/15/2006 05:06:00 PM  
Blogger Habu_1 said...

DR..
VMGR? 452?

7/15/2006 05:06:00 PM  
Blogger desert rat said...

193 IB-518 Eng CZ
3-7 SFG
School of the Americas
'79-82 No tattoos
Espanol basta

82-84 fun in the civilian sun
Didn't need uniforms nor ID cards, north of Panama, south of Mexico.

7/15/2006 05:13:00 PM  
Blogger Cedarford said...

Wu Wei - Looks like a screw up prevented the missile attack on the Israeli ship from being intercepted.

Then, referring to an Israeli journalist or an IDF officer as confident as US officers were back in 2003 that IEDs would be "quickly defeated".

Missile boats are equipped with a missile interception system capable of automatically intercepting any missile or aircraft approaching it. However, as the boat was operating in an area where a large number of IDF planes were present, the Navy had refrained from activating the system.

7/15/2006 05:13:00 PM  
Blogger Habu_1 said...

get any of that sheep dip in your eyes?

best kinda fun

7/15/2006 05:18:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

C-4's confused.
GWB was talking about IUDs.
Shoring up the Christian Conservative Base.
...that being the only one he's been true to.
Sometimes.

7/15/2006 05:19:00 PM  
Blogger desert rat said...

Coulda, shoulda, woulda...

If the Israeli had only known they did not have air superiority, they could have had it. But they did not know, so they weren't, like Boy Scouts, prepared.

The much vaunted Mossad let 'em down?

Or maybe we can get Dan Rather the blame for this one.

The rockets continue to rain on Israel, counter battery not as good as hoped, obviously. Neither the inland launch zones nor the Coast line of Lebanon not "swept clean" yet.

How much more effective will the US be on the Persian Gulf coast?
On my atlas the Iranian coastline looks a lot longer than Lebanon's.

7/15/2006 05:28:00 PM  

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