Wednesday, May 07, 2008

The road to Denver

Rick Moran at Pajamas Media asks whether, after having squeaked past in Indiana and having been trounced in North Carolina, the Hillary rally is over.

Because of this, Drudge is reporting tonight at midnight central time that “Hillary plans to huddle with undecided super delegates tomorrow; gauging if she can go on.” This could be gamesmanship on Clinton’s part, meeting with the supers in order to take some of the pressure off of her to quit. More likely, it is a genuine attempt to assess what her chances are at this point in the campaign. The answer might determine whether she will go before the Rules Committee at the end of the month and make her pitch to seat Florida and Michigan’s orphan delegates. Or, whether she will fold her tent and either quit or suspend her campaign.

Hillary's decision will probably hinge on whether she can afford to give up now, having gone so far. In the early days of aviation, pilots who attempted to cross oceanic distances would calculate a "point of no return" beyond which it made no sense to turn back. Hillary crossed that line long ago. Against the uncertainties of going on against Obama is the equally bleak prospect of returning to a diminished political future -- sans reputation, sans friends, and sans the protection of the Oval Office.

Don't you just hate it when you put all your chips on red and it comes up black? When you hear posh doors close behind you and know your future might consist of endless gigs inaugurating shopping mall parking lots it's tempting to take out the checkbook and bet the farm. Anything is better than a tunnel of rooms at a metaphorical political chain motel with naugahyde lobby sofas you pass on your way to a "wide selection of quality restaurants nearby". It's not impossible. Just impossible after you've led the Life.

It's a safe bet that Hillary and Bill are probably at low tide tonight. There's probably unease among conservatives too. Barack Obama has demonstrated that "reasons" to vote against him are not enough. They count, but they count less than they rationally should. He's riding an emotional tide in a weather system where logic is the smallest of zephyrs. Obama is the candidate of feeling. The expression of a mood. What he is in and of himself has proved less important than his symbolism.

To successfully combat Obama conservatives will need more than reasons. They'll need a cause. A reason to believe. What remains to be seen is whether John McCain can provide one.




The Belmont Club is supported largely by donations from its readers.

34 Comments:

Blogger some said...

The press stampede can only see today.

Hillary will, no matter what they say, run up truly huge numbers next week in West Virginia and Kentucky.

Then they will only talk about Obama's low appeal among working-class whites.

5/07/2008 03:41:00 AM  
Blogger hdgreene said...

Desperate for victory, she said she would obliterate Iran. Instead, she got Obamanated by the media. Ah, the irony! Live by Vanity Fair, die by Vanity Fair. Personally, I've enjoyed the prize fight so much I'm looking for a rematch in 2012.

5/07/2008 03:54:00 AM  
Blogger Teresita said...

Hdgreen: I've enjoyed the prize fight so much I'm looking for a rematch in 2012.

You may well get your wish, because the dynamic of this race was based on a wide open field on both sides. No one ever wants the President to pass away (except maybe MoveOn.Org), but the office seems to age people at a rate three times faster than other jobs, and McCain is already 72 years old.

5/07/2008 04:21:00 AM  
Blogger PeterBoston said...

The impossible has been realized. Barack Hussein Obama turned Hilary Clinton into an appealing candidate and actually human person.

5/07/2008 05:00:00 AM  
Blogger El Jefe Maximo said...

Maybe Some. But you have to wonder how much money she has, and to what degree Democrats otherwise inclined to vote for her might have concluded the continuing struggle helps McCain too much. I'm thinking this last consideration probably hurt her yesterday.

Fundamentally, the superdelegates want to ratify the choice of the delegates. They don't want to go against them. They can't do that if they pick Hillary -- who can only win if the superdelegates overturn the choice of the pledged delegates.

Remember that the superdelegates are mostly congress types and office holders themselves. There are worse things for them than a candidate that has, as you put it "low appeal among working class whites" and loses in November. They are probably more worried about constiuents angry that they overturned the "people's choice." If St. Barack loses, they can say they tried, and blame it all on Bush.

What happens if they pick Hillary, and SHE loses ? Who is to blame then ?

I think Obama's their guy. Yeah, he's a weak candidate, but that toast is already buttered.

5/07/2008 06:58:00 AM  
Blogger peterike said...

I think Obama's their guy. Yeah, he's a weak candidate, but that toast is already buttered.

Obama is only a weak candidate if you pay some attention to reality, which most voters normally don't, and which fewer than ever are doing this election cycle. My sense is that Bush and the eight years of non-stop Bush bashing have so damaged the Republican label that nothing will stop Obama from winning.

After all that's come out in the past few weeks, he still trounces Hillary in North Carolina and barely loses Indiana. Indiana! The Rev. Wright and all the other cretins in Obama's orbit simply do not exist for most voters. They see only the fuzzy glow.

Well, it will be quite interesting to see life with an academic Marxist as President, along with a Socialist congress. How much damage can they manage in four years, I wonder? How much of the store will they give away? What's going to be left when they're done?

5/07/2008 07:10:00 AM  
Blogger El Jefe Maximo said...

Peterike...I actually tend to agree with you. Wish I didn't.

As to what can come of it...how about, for starters, D.C. and Puerto Rico statehood ?

5/07/2008 07:21:00 AM  
Blogger Katchoo said...

El Jefe Maximo, the superdelegates will certainly overturn the elected delegates if the frontrunner becomes damaged goods some time during the course of the primary season. It's the very reason Democrats created that rule. Republicans like things more tidy so they have Winner Take All. But for Democrats, superdelegates are a safety net in case it turns out the early states went for someone they didn't know was secretly a Maoist Sunni Revolutionary who thinks Dick Cheney took down the New Orleans levees one rainy August day in 2005 with a controlled implosion.

5/07/2008 08:03:00 AM  
Blogger j- said...

*No one ever wants the President to pass away (except maybe MoveOn.Org), but the office seems to age people at a rate three times faster than other jobs, and McCain is already 72 years old.*

Here we go with the same old crap we heard in 1980.

Next week Teresita will be telling us that McCain is also crazy and/or senile and wants to deliberately bankrupt American farmers because who needs food when you just plan on starting a nuclear war the minute your inaugurated anyway.

Yawn.

5/07/2008 08:19:00 AM  
Blogger Mətušélaḥ said...

Isus Cristos, what a depressing tune!

5/07/2008 08:34:00 AM  
Blogger Teresita said...

J-: Next week Teresita will be telling us that McCain is also crazy and/or senile and wants to deliberately bankrupt American farmers because who needs food when you just plan on starting a nuclear war the minute your inaugurated anyway.

I've already officially come out for McCain on the Elephant Bar. Here's the pertinent posts:

My brief flirtation with Obama is over. Just a passing phase, I suppose. Mark me down as a McCain girl.

Tue May 06, 09:15:00 AM EDT


I've known for some time that Hillary was toast, but that left Obama, and I was sitting there trying to find a reason to vote for the guy. Can't do it. Gotta go with McCain. That's not so much of a stretch though. He's centrist. McCain is not really going to have the Third Bush Term like Err America says he's gonna do.

Wed May 07, 01:24:00 AM EDT


So there you go. I suppose the Belmont Clubbers will soon find something else to ding me on, which is okay, as long as they don't break the three post rule.

5/07/2008 09:26:00 AM  
Blogger eggplant said...

PeterBoston said:

"The impossible has been realized. Barack Hussein Obama turned Hillary Clinton into an appealing candidate and actually human person."

Scary, isn't it?

Peterike said:

"Obama is only a weak candidate if you pay some attention to reality, which most voters normally don't, and which fewer than ever are doing this election cycle."

The MSM has acheived its objective. A significant fraction of the voting public is now stampeding in full lemming mode.

Peterike also said:

"Well, it will be quite interesting to see life with an academic Marxist as President, along with a Socialist congress. How much damage can they manage in four years, I wonder?"

How about New York and L.A. reduced to ruins? That's after our teetering economy crashes and burns.

Why isn't everyone terrified out of their minds?

Excuse me, I feel an urgent need to crawl under the desk, assume the fetal position and start whimpering...

5/07/2008 09:47:00 AM  
Blogger joe buz said...

All roads lead to Denver but you can stick a fork in Hillary, she is done!

T, I saw that post and agree that the ol fella is or has enough left to appeal to some leftward leaners. I'm not going to ding you but would like to take this opportunity to comment on how nice you avatar is compared to anea's. To borrow a word from the O campaign, thanks for the "change".

5/07/2008 09:47:00 AM  
Blogger PiltdownMan said...

I suspect that, if Obama wins the nomination, the Democratic Machine is going to work real hard at painting some rosy cheeks and a big smile on the public Mrs. O.

She'll be given a script, and will probably follow along, a part of her burden in leading her man to The Office to fix all that is wrong with America.

5/07/2008 09:56:00 AM  
Blogger Peter Grynch said...

Hillary still has a chance. Tony Rezko will be sentenced very soon. She can offer him a presidential pardon if he spills the beans on Obama. Obama, on the other hand, can offer him a pardon if he keeps quiet.

With respect to what McCain should do, Newt Gingrich has created a new Contract With America. If McCain adopted it, he'd win by a landslide.

These 11 issues are all clear and all doable.

Make English the Official Language of Government.
Control the Borders.
Keep God in the Pledge.
Require a Voter ID Card.
Repeal the Death Tax, for Good.
Restore Property Rights.
Achieve Sustainable Energy Independence.
Control Spending and Balance the Budget.
Tie Education Funding to Teacher Accountability.
Defend America From the Irreconcilable Wing of Islam.
Focus on Iran and North Korea.
These eleven steps focus on the House because Republicans have practical control of the House and can move legislation in the House in a timely manner.

The Senate is so hard to manage and the confusion in the Senate is so great that it is impossible to imagine a clear message coming from the Senate.

These are presented more fully here:
http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=16863

5/07/2008 10:07:00 AM  
Blogger always right said...

"There is no quitter in Hillary." thus spoke Bill. If she calculated then quit, where her future will lead? A lifelong senator from a big state, with no named bill attached to her name? [Off topic: If Kerry had not run, would anybody know the junior senator from MA?]

You've got to wonder though. How much and what the same party elders promised HRC if only she be a good party foot soldier for so long, then her TIME will come. Hillary thought to collect the IOUs this time around, since there is no heir apparent in the GOP. Only to be trumped by a younger man "with a pretty face".

So what next? The Dream Ticket seemed inevitable. It is up to HRC to swallow her bile to be another wallflower (#2) again. However if the Dems win this year (>51% chance at this point, IMO), her chance of running POTUS deminishes. If they lose, she will be another Edwards.

There's another frustrated human being losing the long cherished hope of becoming POTUS. You can hear the gnashing her teeth 'from sea to shining sea'.

5/07/2008 10:12:00 AM  
Blogger bobal said...

The answer is Here

*Easily defensible
*Diesel generators
*Solar power options
*Water purifier
*Black out curtains
*Emergency lighting
*Military communications
*Panic bar on main entrance door

Hey, this ain't no tepee.

*Fuel bladders available.

Native American craftsmanship.

Think ahead.

5/07/2008 11:04:00 AM  
Blogger NahnCee said...

Hillary just "lent" her campaign $6 million to keep on going.

How, exactly, does that work? How does the "campaign" pay her back? Assuming that if she's elected President, she can somehow skim $6 million out of renting the Lincoln bedroom, or letting Pelosi use Airforce 1 for a nominal fee?

5/07/2008 11:24:00 AM  
Blogger Teresita said...

Peter Grynch: These 11 issues are all clear and all doable.

Make English the Official Language of Government.

All official documents in the Federal Government are currently in English. Applicants must understand English to become citizens. This issue is a bigger red herring than a Flag Burning Amendment.

Control the Borders.

No argument there. It's a basic function of any nation-state.

Keep God in the Pledge.

Why? What's the value added? And if the government makes the Pledge an official oath, then keeping God in it violates the establishment clause of the 1st Amendment.

Require a Voter ID Card.

Many conservatives resist the idea of a national ID card. Lots of socialist countries like the Philippines have them.

Repeal the Death Tax, for Good.

Sure, that's a winner with the working class of the former Reagan Coalition. NOT! The Estate Tax is currently 45% and applies to estates greater than $2,000,000 dollars.

Restore Property Rights.

I don't know what that means. Did the US turn into a people's republic when I wasn't looking, where all property is held by the State?

Achieve Sustainable Energy Independence.

Again, no argument here. That means we'll have to mandate draconian CAFE standards, however. We can't just drill our way to freedom from OPEC.

Control Spending and Balance the Budget.

Yeah, get back to the last three years of the Clinton Administration when the government was in the black, and politicians were falling all over themselves trying to figure out a way to spend the budget surplus.

Tie Education Funding to Teacher Accountability.

Education is primarily funded on the State level, not Federal, and there's no constitutional mandate for a Federal role in education.

Defend America From the Irreconcilable Wing of Islam.

Defend America from anyone who attacks her. But before you talk about other people being "irreconcilable" look at the Bush record on willingness to talk. There's very little to work with there.

Focus on Iran and North Korea.

Small potatoes. Focus on Russia and China.

5/07/2008 11:39:00 AM  
Blogger Jrod said...

You were reading my mind Nhancee.
Does anybody know at which point a loan to your own campaign becomes a gift? I assume if she gets a lift in the polls or wins the nomination she'll be able to pay herself back from future campaign contributions. Of course if she loses the contributions dry up and she has an uncollectable loan out to herself. There must be a line in campaign finance legalese that addresses this issue.

5/07/2008 11:49:00 AM  
Blogger dla said...

I guess Dorothy splashed some water on her - despite the flying monkeys. Dorothy gets to keep the ruby slippers. Follow the yellow brick road!

Hillary would've been horrible for this country. Obama is only slightly better. Fortunately, GWB has already done the heavy lifting, so we can ride out 4 years of Loon Congress and a liberal president.

But I don't think Obama can beat McCain. So I really believe we will have a stalemate between Congress and the Whitehouse.

5/07/2008 12:39:00 PM  
Blogger PeterBoston said...

The only clear message out of this election cycle is that this Little Blue Planet has morphed into Bizarroworld. The most wise Foghorn Leghorn said of Obama that "he flaps his mouth around a lot but doesn't say much" and nobody cares. Only 4% of potential voters associate Obama with liberalism. Liberal my ass, the guy is left of Trotsky.

Pundits say that Obama is unelectable in November, but he should never have gotten this far either. He's either going to lose worse than McGovern or be the next POTUS. I think it's fair to say that this is the worst and most ineffectual Congrees since the 1850s - the least desireable time for a radical leftist to have an opportunity to trash the separation of powers that was able to at least mitigate the worst of the worst - Jimmah Carter.

5/07/2008 12:56:00 PM  
Blogger whiskey_199 said...

Has anyone LOOKED at the demo reporting out of IN and NC?

CNN has maps, very revealing, and Fox News a good demo exit poll slice.

Hillary CRUSHED Obama in everything but BLACKS and College Kids and rich white yuppies. Blacks turned out overwhelmingly in IN, which was why it was close.

Catholics, Whites, No College Degree, lower income (but not poor/welfare), Union Households, all went for Hillary over Obama around 60-40 split.

Obama can't OH, TX, FL, PA, MI, MA, and so on. He's the "Black Candidate" and that is going to have polarized racial voting in response to ... polarized racial voting.

And this is without the Bill Ayers Flag Stomp (with clips showing him and Obama defending him as "mainstream"), the other shoe drop with Wright, etc.

Hillary is not finished. But Dems just might be. You can't win with Blacks, College Kids, and Red Diaper Marxist trust-funders.

Blacks are only 12% of the Population. Working Class white men make up 25%.

5/07/2008 12:58:00 PM  
Blogger Lucky Pierre said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

5/07/2008 01:36:00 PM  
Blogger Lucky Pierre said...

If Hillary doesn't win, she can write a book about the first woman to run for the top spot and almost make it (her last book made about $10 million dollars), and Bill can earn a living giving speeches here and overseas, which yields him about $10 million dollars a year. The biggest item on Bubba's mind after the results on Tuesday is how much time Hillary will be spending at home in the near future. That's going to put a serious crimp in his love life, if you know what I mean.

5/07/2008 01:41:00 PM  
Blogger always right said...

whiskey_199:
You can't win with Blacks, College Kids, and Red Diaper Marxist trust-funders.

But the Dems are betting the rest of the Dems (25% working class white) will fall in line and vote for their candidate anyway.

Because nothing else can bring Obama down, only people's desire for CHANGE! matters.

5/07/2008 01:55:00 PM  
Blogger eggplant said...

PeterBoston said:

"Pundits say that Obama is unelectable in November, but he should never have gotten this far either. He's either going to lose worse than McGovern or be the next POTUS."

I totally agree. We have observed an amazing malfunction in the political process. Barack Hussein is so OBVIOUSLY not qualified to be President and yet here he is, the Democrat candidate.

Given that the system has already shown an egregious malfunction, what basis do we have in believing that it will suddenly stop malfunctioning? At this stage of the game, all that needs to happen is for McCain to have a single lapse in good judgement and it's all over. We're one error away from having Hussein as President. This is beyond frightening.

5/07/2008 02:23:00 PM  
Blogger Lucky Pierre said...

All official documents in the Federal Government are currently in English. Applicants must understand English to become citizens.

You have countries like France passing their own language laws because English is taking over. The language of the Internet is English. Many people who don't speak English as a first language speak it as a second. That said, Ter, I saw a post by someone yesterday talking about people not being able to get jobs in California because they don't speak Spanish. That is the sort of thing we would be fighting by supporting an English Only law.

5/07/2008 02:36:00 PM  
Blogger DRC said...

Well, here go...anticipating HRC announces her retreat, "the machine demands a sacrifice".
I, like others here, have no illusions. We could well be looking at an Obama POTUS, leader of the "free World".
if the MSM have their day, the rank and file may just well go along.
I have not the foggiest what this man will do, or is capable of doing ..I'm concerned.
Brace yourself, the fun is about to begin.

5/07/2008 03:54:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

"Eggheads and African Americans"
---
---
The Bataan Memorial Hike.
The rest of the story.

5/07/2008 04:21:00 PM  
Blogger Bret said...

"How much damage can they manage in four years, I wonder?"

Not too much. We survived LBJ and Carter. We'll survive Obama too. Chin up. America is more resilient than you seem to think.

5/07/2008 04:33:00 PM  
Blogger Wadeusaf said...

peterboston, best laugh I've had all day, thank you.

I believe if we are fortunate, Senator McCain will find a message that is believable and that we can believe in. I haven't heard it yet, but ..., with the Senate and Congress uncorked, it will require a man willing to use the veto pen, and ready to defend the draft of the constitution that has withstood the trials of those who would opt for expediency rather than the rule of law, and believe in government rather than individual rights and freedom.

Obama is too young too unrefined and too big of a question mark. If he acts as some believe him capable, (like Benj suggests, based on a feeling, a nuance or a fleeting expression more like a hope and a prayer), then he betrays the very folks he needs to get elected. If he does not, I have not a clue what may be in store. what is so totally irresponsible is the Dems rallying around someone even they don't know. He is still such a blank slate, so ill defined and so un-forthrightly unforthcoming.

At least with Gore and Kerry they knew they were presenting us with the collectivist, big government, feel good, nonsense candidate, even if they didn't know where they stood either. But Obama, we have no reason to conclude he stands anywhere for anything. No clue even of what he does not stand for other than a distorted form of child abuse to excuse teen pregnancy. Oh and by default better basic economics education.

Yup, I figure this is McCain's to lose, we will see if he and the republican base can figure out how not to lose it.
I suddenly feel very ill.

5/07/2008 05:32:00 PM  
Blogger NahnCee said...

How odd that no one thinks there's enough racism left in the United States that Obama would lose the NOvember general election simply because he's a little bit black.

I'm pretty sure that says something good about America.

5/07/2008 06:41:00 PM  
Blogger whiskey_199 said...

Always --

Yes that's the Dems problem. Outside of the Clintons, none of them have EVER won working class whites. Instead they write books about how racist and stupid working class whites are.

McCain can relate to them, and pander to them better. Put more money in their pockets with tax cuts. While Obama promises to take more of their money ... and give it to the Polar Bear fund or Welfare (which they know damn well has "No Whites Allowed" written all over it).

Racial polarization (90% margins for Obama) means "No Whites Wanted" as part of the message of Black Separationism, Nationalism, and Exclusion that Obama and Wright practiced for years. Even the College Kids voting for Obama don't hang out or interact with their "hip cool Black Friends" AT ALL, according to the WSJ.

Segregation, due to Black cultural demands, is stronger than ever.

5/07/2008 10:11:00 PM  

Post a Comment

Links to this post:

Create a Link

<< Home


Powered by Blogger