Do we feel lucky today?
Seymour Hersh says the CIA is unsure that Iran is developing nukes. "A classified CIA report has found no firm evidence of a secret drive by Iran to develop nuclear weapons, despite White House allegations that such a plan might exist, a top US investigative reporter has said. Seymour Hersh's report, to be published in the November 27 issue of The New Yorker magazine, drew a denial on Sunday from the White House, which called the report "riddled with inaccuracies." This, according to Lebanese Daily Star.
It's amazing what trouble some countries will go through for absolutely nothing. We can all rest easy now that Seymour Hersh has set the record straight, can't we. Or can we? Technically all that Hersh is saying is that the CIA doesn't know for sure what Iran is up to. Unfortunately all that is often possible, even on a limited battlefield, is to make an estimate of the enemy's intentions and capability. It's possible to make a mistake. During the height of the Cold War, there was a momentary false indication of an inbound Soviet attack due to an electrical glitch. But on the other hand, in the days leading up to September 11 there were ambiguous indications of an impending attack which were ignored. Things are only certain in the past tense. Sometimes the question is which risks one can afford to run?