Tuesday, May 13, 2008

The missile misses

Maybe the providers of rockets and mortars that have been used to fire on the Green Zone have just upped the quality of their arms shipments. The NYT reports: "Missile Is Fired at Copter Over Baghdad, U.S. Says".

BAGHDAD — A surface-to-air missile was fired on Saturday at an American Apache helicopter flying over the Sadr City section of Baghdad, American military officials said on Monday. The attack, which had not been disclosed previously, represents the first time that a helicopter has come under missile attack in Sadr City since fighting erupted in the Shiite enclave in March.

The missile missed the aircraft. But the attack was sufficiently worrisome that the American military changed the route of an aerial tour of Baghdad it had arranged for a group of reporters, television cameramen and photographers on Monday. Two helicopters were to fly over or near Sadr City, but an official said the route had been changed because of the missile threat.

Or maybe the incident was simply reported in conjunction with the reporter's trip so the media might put 2+2 together about Iran. Nah.

Meanwhile, in other news, President Bush "warned Iran and Syria that the international community would not allow Lebanon to fall under foreign domination through their proxies again."

Unless the something spectacularly horrifying happens in the Middle East, like President Ahmedinajad insulting Oprah, nobody is going to notice the shennanigans of the Ayatollahs in the region. Why only recently the Chicago City Council, led by Alderman Joe Moore, Scott Ritter, Walt Mearsheimer and other luminaries led the nation in advocating peace with Teheran. Robert Naiman at the Huffington Post provides a transcript of the press conference at city hall. Here's Moore:

Five years ago the council made history passing a resolution against war in Iraq. Sadly our leaders did not take heed. Now most observers agree the war was a horrible mistake. Now more than 4000 dead, tens of thousands wounded, more than a million Iraqis killed or wounded.

History is repeating itself. The Administration is beating the drum of war, despite the Iran NIE. As in the runup to war in Iraq, basing the threat on unsubstantiated information. Some would argue that this is not Chicago's business. But it is definitely Chicago's business. It's Chicago's neighborhoods which will suffer.Chicago will once again lead the nation as a city for peace.

And lead it from the White House too, in all probability, in 2009.




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24 Comments:

Blogger joe buz said...

I am sure that the MSM will argue that Surface to Air missiles could be manufactured in Sadr city.....

5/13/2008 05:02:00 PM  
Blogger Teresita said...

A surface-to-air missile was fired on Saturday at an American Apache helicopter flying over the Sadr City section of Baghdad, American military officials said on Monday.

There have been 113 helicopters lost in the war, including at least 18 brought down in the vicinity of Baghdad, so why does this merit a news item?

5/13/2008 05:33:00 PM  
Blogger Wadeusaf said...

"There have been 113 helicopters lost in the war, including at least 18 brought down in the vicinity of Baghdad, so why does this merit a news item?"

It is the type of missile fired, from where and by whom, as an indication of perhaps an on going arms race, that is worrisome. Also, the tactics being used as a variation on a Pali-Rali theme, Lebanese block party and eventually maybe, a gala event in Gaza, are of interest.

But then, while you would know that I doubt the members of the media on the helo ride had too much reason to think in such terms, till their ride got diverted.

I guess the folks at Chicago's City Hall have not discovered a reason to think in such terms either.

5/13/2008 06:12:00 PM  
Blogger Teresita said...

Wadeusaf: It is the type of missile fired, from where and by whom, as an indication of perhaps an on going arms race, that is worrisome.

Unless the missile had active homing radar, and the helicopter captured the electronic signature, they cannot say what it was that flew by but didn't hit them. There was no dud warhead buried in the fuselage to take back for verification. For all we know, some guys in Sadr city had some unguided Katushya rockets, or maybe even a homemade job no more advanced than a firework round, which they sent in the general direction of the helicopter. But no, that's not in the script, they are SA-7s so we're supposed to thump Iran.

5/13/2008 06:29:00 PM  
Blogger grl said...

Teresita, the Iraqi counterinsurgents on the ground found the body of the missile and turned it in to the coalition forces. That's how they found out what it was.

5/13/2008 06:39:00 PM  
Blogger Wadeusaf said...

There is concern, not only over the type of missile, but from where and whom it was fired as well as how the operator got a hold of it, yes.

Whether we are going to thump Iran over it (doubtful), or not (more likely). There are plenty of reasons for noting this escalation of technical achievement available to the denizens of Sadr City. Despite the well intended efforts to disrupt, disect, disuade and dislodge the Mahdi army, it appears to me, there is a fairly large contingent of hard core fighters, who will not leave willingly or soon. I fear there may be fighting of the intensity of the Lebanese PLO Camp, at worst.

Perhaps it is just someone taking a measure of the Iraqi Army, a better idea. Or the fellows in question are feeling desperate.

5/13/2008 07:19:00 PM  
Blogger exhelodrvr1 said...

Teresita,
The flight profile, speed, altitude the helo was at, what evasive manuevers were taken and how the missile reacted to them, etc. all provide info on the type of missile. IR-guided missiles also give off detectable signals.

5/13/2008 07:39:00 PM  
Blogger 3Case said...

Slaughter now or slaughter later.
Slaughter later = slaughter more.

5/13/2008 08:26:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

While the IAEA and Security Council dither, an arms race begins
According to a story in today’s Washington Post, at least 40 countries now have an interest in starting their own nuclear power programs.
On the list of those countries suddenly finding themselves growing short of energy resources are Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Bahrain, Libya, and Algeria. Add to this list Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, and even Yemen, whose governments now crave nuclear expertise.

POSTSCRIPT
For a description of the implications of Iran’s nuclear program for every point on the compass, I have found no better than this, which is a must-read document.

- Westhawk

5/14/2008 06:18:00 AM  
Blogger Eric said...

All of the "Drumbeats of war towards Iran" talk reminds me of the insistance earlier in the war that the Administration was about to propose a draft. It so fails to match anything actually being said by the administration that it would be laughable if so many didn't believe it.

Perhaps Democrats in Congress are preparing to bring to the floor an Authorization of Force against Iran so that they can vote it down.

5/14/2008 06:24:00 AM  
Blogger Katchoo said...

3case: Slaughter now or slaughter later. Slaughter later = slaughter more.

Slaughter none and draw down US forces. Let the practicioners of the Religion of Peace slaughter each other.

5/14/2008 06:33:00 AM  
Blogger Jrod said...

So the Chicago CC's underoos are in a bunch because they were unable to influence foreign policy. What a luxury it must be to live in such a well run city that the CC has the time and energy to address foreign policy. Does anybody else feel that this council and all the other city councils that have passed similar meaningless resolutions secretly hope that we invade Iran just so they can have another "I told you so" moment? Sometimes I think the steady drumbeat of war with Iran we keep hearing about is an echo from the left's own drum circle.

5/14/2008 07:08:00 AM  
Blogger jcunningham9 said...

"Slaughter none and draw down US forces. Let the practicioners of the Religion of Peace slaughter each other."

Yeah, that worked really well during the 1990s and the build up by the Islamists to the 9/11 attack, didn't it? It's a small, small world Katchoo, and we can't hide behind our oceans anymore.

5/14/2008 07:57:00 AM  
Blogger Teresita said...

JCunningham: It's a small, small world Katchoo, and we can't hide behind our oceans anymore.

Yes we can. No more Muzzies for flight school, the Gulf States have to contract to red-blooded Americans to fly their planes. If the Euros want to teach Muzzies to fly, that's their call, but they can't fly HERE.

5/14/2008 09:00:00 AM  
Blogger Katchoo said...

Terr-bear: Yes we can. No more Muzzies for flight school, the Gulf States have to contract to red-blooded Americans to fly their planes. If the Euros want to teach Muzzies to fly, that's their call, but they can't fly HERE.

Goody, you plug the airplane hole, but leave the shipping container hole and the two big holes with the Canadian and Mexican borders. As long as we're over there antagonizing them, they will be motivated to find a way through.

5/14/2008 09:30:00 AM  
Blogger Steve said...

As long as we're over there antagonizing them, they will be motivated to find a way through.

Where have you been for the past several centuries?

We don't have to be "over there antagonizing them", all we have to do is exist to antagonize them.

All your approach is likely to do is to completely move the kinetic effects over here. Again.

5/14/2008 11:19:00 AM  
Blogger jj mollo said...

The hijacking game is probably over and we have actually over-reacted to that one. The whole game with the Islamic assassin sub-culture now comes down to nukes. They can hurt us with oil, but nukes are the real deal. There is absolutely no way to predict with certainty how they will use a nuclear weapon, and it is the one thing that we cannot tolerate.

We can't tolerate the potential use of the weapons, nor the extortion capacity that they entail. So it comes down to how nervous we are and how far we will go. Without a presense in the Middle East, and without a victory in Iraq, our response spectrum is severely narrowed. Make no mistake, we went to Iraq and we remain in Iraq because of nukes. That hasn't changed. Our sacrifice in this war has been minuscule compared to the stakes.

5/14/2008 12:08:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Junk Science Rules!

Polar Bear to Be a Protected Species

In declaring the polar bear a threatened species, the Interior Department cited the decline in Arctic sea ice from global warming.

5/14/2008 01:32:00 PM  
Blogger putnam said...

Let's face it, Bush's biggest foreign policy failure in the twilight of his presidency is an unwillingness to face up to the really tough challenges.

Instead of worrying about his legacy, he should be dealing with the real hard nuts and not simply passing them on to the next president. If the US had wanted that they would have elected Kerry, and if the Republicans aren't willing to face reality, than there is always Barry's version of Michael Jacksons never-never land.

It doesn't really matter if it was an SA7, a Roland or an RPG. The time for debating action against Iran is long past. The last couple of years should have been spent toughening up our "allies", not groveling in front of islamists hoping for a settlement.

Teresita: Do you ever follow Col. Lang's site? His bitterness and skepticism seems more your style.

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/

5/14/2008 02:24:00 PM  
Blogger Doc99 said...

Casus belli ... Iran's Butcher's Bill is long overdue.

5/14/2008 07:00:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

The New Cold War

All of this is part of what Ehud Yaari, one of Israel’s best Middle East watchers, calls “Pax Iranica.” In his April 28 column in The Jerusalem Report, Mr. Yaari pointed out the web of influence that Iran has built around the Middle East — from the sway it has over Iraq’s prime minister, Nuri al-Maliki, to its ability to manipulate virtually all the Shiite militias in Iraq, to its building up of Hezbollah into a force — with 40,000 rockets — that can control Lebanon and threaten Israel should it think of striking Tehran, to its ability to strengthen Hamas in Gaza and block any U.S.-sponsored Israeli-Palestinian peace.

“Simply put,” noted Mr. Yaari, “Tehran has created a situation in which anyone who wants to attack its atomic facilities will have to take into account that this will lead to bitter fighting” on the Lebanese, Palestinian, Iraqi and Persian Gulf fronts. That is a sophisticated strategy of deterrence.

5/14/2008 07:51:00 PM  
Blogger eggplant said...

Katchoo said...

"Goody, you plug the airplane hole, but leave the shipping container hole and the two big holes with the Canadian and Mexican borders."

A big nuke in a shipping container is the obvious tactic for the next 9/11. I see no defense against this except by denying the bad guys access to nuclear weapons technology. Unfortunately the Iranians have access to nuclear weapons technology so we're in big trouble.

Doc99 said:

"Casus belli ... Iran's Butcher's Bill is long overdue."

This is self evident. Unfortunately the NIE stopped Bush dead in his tracks. No way Bush can launch an attack against the Iranians if he's got high ranking State Dept. and CIA people knifing him in the back along with a Democrat controlled Congress that would terminate funding. Iran is a problem for the next President and only after he has cleaned house in the State Dept. and CIA. Our national security problems start at home.

5/15/2008 09:32:00 AM  
Blogger David M said...

The Thunder Run has linked to this post in the - Web Reconnaissance for 05/15/2008 A short recon of what’s out there that might draw your attention, updated throughout the day...so check back often.

5/15/2008 10:16:00 AM  
Blogger Mark Pyruz said...

Doug, take a look at the other part of Iran’s defense based on deterrence at:

http:www.uskowioniran.blogspot.com

5/15/2008 03:05:00 PM  

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