Saturday, February 23, 2008

Does Hillary still have a miracle play left?

Victor Davis Hanson is a sporting man, and thinks that Hillary may find a way (to use an NBA metaphor) to put the Democratic Primary game into overtime. Here's how he thinks it can be done at NRO's Corner.

I still maintain that the Clintons (if she can squeak by in the next two primaries) will use every means to find a way to challenge, seat, or sway delegates to win the nomination, regardless of the aggregate popular vote or ongoing delegate count. While that may not work, I still think she will try if she wins Texas; and if she wins the last three states, it will work. Apparently Peter wants to suggest that the people of Florida and Michigan should be "disenfranchised" or that "undemocratic" caucuses in the night should weigh the same as the results of plebiscites, or that time-tested and loyal super-delegates should have their traditional roles neutered, or that tiny states that will not be in play or won't matter in the fall should count the same as CA, Fl, MI, NJ, NW, OH, TX, and PN.

Dan Gerstein at the Politico thinks a similar scenario is possible. Why? Because cheating is built into the Democratic primary system. At least that's what Gerstein says.

Now an even more disturbing realization is beginning to set in: If the Clinton firewall holds in Texas and Ohio, there may well not be a clean/just way out of the delegate stalemate that this cockamamie system is on track to produce.

The fact is, just about every corrective Democrats have proposed to the crazy quilt of anti-democratic rules and decisions that have recently come to light are themselves antithetical to the values we claim to hold dear. Which is to say, they are non-starters for fairly finishing this contest and avoiding a debilitating backroom bloodfight in the lead-up to the convention.

Will the Democrats be hoist by their own petard? Er, done in by their own rules? Can Hillary do it? My guess is no. Jerry West retired a long time ago.






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31 Comments:

Blogger Doug said...

Obama takes heat for skipping State of the Black Union

Smiley
has been vocal about his disapproval of Obama's decision.

"I think it's a missed opportunity on Mr. Obama's part," Smiley told CNN. "Now, I am not interested in demonizing him for his choice, but I do disagree with it." Watch a report on the controversy »

But Smiley's criticism has also prompted many people to come to Obama's defense. The talk show host told The Washington Post he has been inundated with angry e-mails and even death threats.

"I have family in Indianapolis. They are harassing my momma, harassing my brother. It's getting to be crazy," Smiley told the newspaper.

2/23/2008 04:33:00 PM  
Blogger Peter Grynch said...

For eight years the Democrats have preached that votes can be rigged. Now that they have incorporated this in the minds of their adherents as an unquestioned core belief, whichever side loses in the Clinton-Obama catfight will be convinced they've been cheated.

We worry about low Republican voter turnout in November. What if, instead, half the Democrats stay at home.

2/23/2008 04:36:00 PM  
Blogger LifeoftheMind said...

Hillary is in the position of being right on the facts regarding the super delegates. She is so tainted as a product of the movement that produced Obama and passed her by that her hypocrisy is breath taking. She is unworthy of benefiting from her narrow technical argument.

The Democrats failed to control the theatrical extremists at Chicago in 1968. After that they surrendered to activists and the "base." The SCOTUS has spoken that political parties can set their own rules for selecting candidates and presumably therefor recognizing their members. It is now up to the adults in both parties to take that message and run with it.

Hopefully we will end up with something closer to a parliamentary party system. In such a system unstable supporters of ideologues like Kucinich or Paul are made to feel unwelcome and the nominee is someone who has been inspected and tested over a couple of decades. Interestingly the party of the left is still more vulnerable to fringe elements in that system but the principle behind a representative and republican system of governance at the party level should apply.

As always this strengthens my argument for the Electoral College. If Maerk Steyn can beself proclaimed a Demography Bore I want my niche.

2/23/2008 05:35:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Chicago '68 plus a Race Riot!

2/23/2008 05:36:00 PM  
Blogger whiskey_199 said...

Hillary will likely lose Texas. But may benefit from an "Uh Oh" as more and more disquieting information about Obama circles in (courtesy of course of Hillary):

That guy suing Obama's campaign, alleging he had gay sex and did drugs with Obama in 99.

Gaffe-a-minute from Michelle Obama.

Obama hanging out with radical terrorists like Bill Ayers.

Obama's anti-gun statements, a fifty-state loser.

This is probably not enough to save her, but enough to damage Obama-the-Messiah and also have the Clinton Restoration Team working for an Obama defeat: Albright, Stephanopoulos, Berger, Carville, Begala, Holbrooke, Richardson, etc. People high in the hierarchy, with much media and other connections, with careers on the line (marginalized by Team Obama-the-Messiah).

Money, power, influence are at stake in Democratic circles. So don't expect it to end quickly.

2/23/2008 06:21:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Don't forget Dirty Harry Ickes.
He made the rules, now he wants to change them for Hillary.

"As a member of the DNC's Rules committee he was a proponent of adding other states besides Iowa and New Hampshire early on in the Presidential nominating calendar"

2/23/2008 07:03:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

...another Player from Chicago, as was his dad:
"Ickes was known for his acerbic wit and took joy in verbal battles. He often took verbal abuse too.
For instance, Roosevelt selected Ickes to deliver a response following the nomination of Wendell Willkie.

In response to Ickes' comments, Senator Styles Bridges called Ickes "a common scold puffed up by high office."

Republican Congresswoman Clare Boothe Luce once famously remarked that Ickes had "the mind of a commissar and the soul of a meataxe."

In September 1944, Thomas E. Dewey, the Republican nominee for president, promised to fire Ickes if elected. Ickes penned a letter of resignation to Dewey and it was widely printed in the press. Ickes wrote, in part:

Hence, I hereby resign as Secretary of the Interior effective, if, as and when the incredible comes to pass and you become the President of the United States.
However, as a candidate for that office you should have known the primary school fact that the Cabinet of an outgoing President automatically retires with its chief.
"

2/23/2008 07:09:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

"Obama has indicated willingness to end federal oversight of the Teamsters.

Refusal by President George W. Bush to do so helped sour his administration's relations with the union.
"
---
You might guess that would be a Red Flag for some.
Then again, it is 2008, and the Manifesto's been taught with more vigor than ever at public schools for nearly forty years.

2/23/2008 07:17:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

A Primer:

“The ruling elite nowadays has no ideology,” Ms. Chelysheva said.
“Their only aim is to obtain as much power as possible, to keep this power, by whatever means, and to profiteer off this power.
In this respect, these people, who are so cynical, are much more dangerous than was the Communist Party of the U.S.S.R.”

Putin Is A Thug
Good long article on the tactics of rule in Russia these days.

- Al-Bob

2/23/2008 07:25:00 PM  
Blogger hdgreene said...

Hillary's one hope of getting the nomination is to make Obama unelectable in the fall. Her 527 group in Ohio needs to attack Obama in a way that will keep the white working class from voting for him in the fall. If he can't carry Ohio and Pa., then he can't win. So the party elders go for Hillary.

Here's the problem. This will be near in possible to pull off without greatly decreasing the African American vote. The Democrats have gone to the "vote suppression" and "stolen election" well too many times. African Americans will simply assume that if Obama losses now, it was stolen from him (and them). So they will stay home in November.

It would be better to plant the seeds now that will likely cost him the election in the fall but let him win the nomination. Then she can return to lead a contrite Democratic party to victory in 2012.

If Obama wins, she should have cut a deal for a Supreme Court seat before leaving the race. I don't see her as VP. She knows how she would treat the VP and would assume that treatment would come her way. But the Hillary High Court? That might tempt.

2/23/2008 07:29:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Sure would be sweet while Ruth Bader is still there!
Jeeze!

2/23/2008 07:46:00 PM  
Blogger buck smith said...

Wretchard,

Given that you live in Australia and spent some part of your life in the Philipines. you just amaze me sometimes with the breadth of the cultural refences you bring. I was watching that game on TV when Jerry West made that shot. The Lakers lost.

2/23/2008 08:09:00 PM  
Blogger Charles Gitout said...

The McCain Campaign may very well need a miracle or two after this:

"Please, call me Sidney"

John McCain's presidential campaign strategists are frantically preparing for "severe" damage to his candidacy after learning of three former hotel employees who accuse the Senator and presumed Republican nominee of sexual misconduct.

A pattern of abuse is alleged to have occured in two stops on McCain's fabled "Straight Talk Express," whose candor began resonating in 2000 with social conservatives, prior to George W. Bush persuading them. The McCain camp is hectically preparing responses to the feared lurid conversations on an audio recording mailed to major media sources Friday night. Critical to McCain's campaign strategy is appealing to conservative grassroots, and some strategists worry this scandal may make such a goal all but impossible.

While the McCain presidential campaign has issued no statements specifically responding to the accusations, it is believed the pending uproar will demand different tactics from the favored GOP frontrunner. Sources inside the RNC suggest this information is damaging enough to undermine his Republican nomination.

The first recording features a confession by a "17 year old bellhop," who alleges the "Maverick" Senator plied him with alcohol, reflections on policy issues and "heroic stories," even describing his hotel uniform as "[cutting] a strapping figure." The bellhop, who met the Senator at a hotel in Chicago, claims a McCain staff member gave him money on behalf of the Senator, after McCain remarked, "let's see how you clean up?"

Each of the three voices on the recording have been described as "distinct" by familiar sources, and are said to refer to three individuals testifying to a private investigator. The most worrisome of the three originates from a man identified as "a part-time valet," who claims the Senator invited him into his motorcade. There he asked a Secret Service agent to pour them drinks. "Senator [McCain] was sitting across from me. He got the agent to leave and then he leaned towards me and whispered, "I don't want any faggy shit. I just wanna see you jerk off. How about that, son?"


More steam from the Straight Talk Express at the NYT!

2/23/2008 09:19:00 PM  
Blogger whiskey_199 said...

That's LESS credible than the assertions of gay sex by the guy suing Obambi's campaign.

Given McCain's two marriages.

Obambi's drug use is more problematic. Given that he himself wrote about it in his autobiography.

McCain -- guy with long record in the limelight, contrasted with Obambi in hothouse "activism" and South Side Chicago politics.

McCain is pretty scandal-less in that everything bad about him (Keating 5, divorce-remarriage) is well known and decades old. First the times alleges he had an affair with a woman, now a boy. With zilch evidence. Less than the guy suing Obambi's campaign over the gay sex allegations.

That says more about the hyper-partisan Times than McCain. It also has Obambi's fingerprints all over it -- his campaign backers got Jack Ryan's divorce records unsealed.

Well, come to think of it perhaps Obambi does have something of that nature rattling around in his closet. Given that he's used that weapon (Huma Abedin, Rielle Hunter, Jeri Ryan) against others.

2/23/2008 09:32:00 PM  
Blogger whiskey_199 said...

A follow up.

Where did the Rielle Hunter story come from? Alleging that John Edwards cheating on his wife dying of cancer with sloppy bar girl Rielle Hunter (inspiration for a Jay McInerny character). Which campaign did it come from?

Where did the Huma Abedin story come from? Alleging a lesbian relationship with Hillary Clinton and close aide (and "connected" Saudi-US citizen) Huma Abedin? Which campaign?

NOW, where have allegations of an affair between John McCain and a female lobbyist come from? Which campaign?

Reporters do not do actual reporting. They get fed information by sources and simply regurgitate it like birds feeding chicks. So which campaign?

How do you account for Barack Hussein Obama's remarkable rise in politics? That opponents in primaries suddenly drop out when they are expected to win? That the "unbeatable" Jack Ryan suddenly implodes over a sex scandal?

Obama himself offers no new policy, electoral coalition, signature issue, or anything obvious that would propel him to the Dem Presidential nomination. Except perhaps ... the best private eyes and J Edgar Hoover like files on opponents money can buy. It would be in keeping with the Daley machine politics.

The likely source for the dirt on Edwards, Hillary, and McCain points to Obama. It's noteworthy that McCain's rivals Huckabee and Romney generated no sex-scandal stories. And that the sex scandal around McCain only emerged after he became the nominee.

2/23/2008 09:45:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

Should get Jeri to seduces Barry.
If she couldn't no-one could.

2/23/2008 10:26:00 PM  
Blogger Charles Gitout said...

Abridged Transcript:



PI: When did you next encounter the Senator?

S: The Senator saw me as his entourage returned to his floor. We were delivering ice from the floor below, as the machine on his floor had malfunctioned. This was as per directions from one of his staff supervisors who we took orders from.

PI: Is it normal for you to work closely with VIPs?

S: We try to stay behind the scenes but we immediately service urgent requests.

PI: And what requests were made of you at this time?

S: I was requested by this head of staff to visit with the Senator.

PI: Was anyone else with you when this happened?

S: There were Secret Service agents around, but at this point it was myself, the female supervisor and the Senator.

PI: Where did you meet the Senator?

S: I was taken to his room where I waited outside while he finished a number of phone calls.

PI: Were you left there?

S: Eventually, once McCain finished his phone calls he invited me inside.

PI: What happened next?

S: McCain had ordered room service, unbeknownst to me. We had several drinks, although the Senator did not seem affected. In retrospect I'm wondering if his were more watered down or if there was even booze in them.

PI: Was anyone else in the room during this period?

S: No, we were left entirely alone all of a sudden. The activity that was constantly ongoing ceased once I was with the Senator.

PI: When did the Senator begin making advances?

S: My speaker phone went off when a co-worker asked me where I was. He stepped very close to me and put his hand on the hip where my cell phone was hung and asked me to "get rid of that little distraction."

PI: Were you comfortable with the Senator's actions?

S: I was surprised at first. It seemed harmless enough.

PI: What happened afterwards?

S: The Senator put down his drink and began tightening my tie. He stepped back and said "Look at you now!" I was not sure what to do. He saw that I was uncomfortable and tried to change the atmosphere by telling politically incorrect jokes.

PI: Did you find these jokes offensive?

S: Yes, I believe Senator McCain presumed he was in safe company to talk about the NAFTA highway and asian ethnic stereotypes.

PI: What did the Senator say about Asians-Americans?

S: Not Asian-Americans, just Asians in general. He said they were hard to trust basically. Nothing that bad, I guess.

PI: Did he know you were a progressive?

S: No, I do not believe the Senator did.

PI: Who did you vote for in 2004.

S: I did not vote then.

PI: Are you an Obama supporter?

S: I've supported Ron Paul but will likely support Obama.

PI: Did you discuss this with Senator McCain?

S: Yes, although it was difficult with the alcohol.

PI: What can you remember of your exchanges?

S: That he'd frequently touch my shoulder or run his fingers down along my arm. Small things, but they happened alot and made things awkward.

PI: Did you ever feel threatened by McCain?

S: No, but in retrospect I get the shivers. I worry about what he could have done to me in there without anyone else finding out.

PI: What do you mean?

S: Well, Senator McCain had plied me with mixed drinks, cosmos, chocolate martinis and stuff like that. He took the hat from my uniform and began wearing it and he wasn't shy about running his hands through my hair.

PI: Is that all he did?

S: He began standing close to me when I was talking and sniffing me. Out of nowhere he asked me if I work out and if I had a six pack.

PI: Do you have a six pack?

S: I'm pretty fit, yeah.

PI: Was that all he said?

S: Yeah, but he eventually asked me to take off my uniform and "show" him "what ya got there"

PI: Did you comply?

S: I was nervous and was hesitant. The Senator then reached down the front of my pants, asking me again "whatcha got there?"

PI: What happened next?

S: I panicked and fled.

PI: Did you leave the hotel?

S: Yes, I left the Sofitel and did not return until my shift on Tuesday.

PI: Did you talk to anyone about the incident?

S: I told a close co-worker but I've not told my managers. Its impossible to sound credible when you come out with accusations like this.


2/23/2008 10:27:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

It's Not Over Till It's Over

My American politics undergraduate students tease me without mercy for predicting a year ago that the Democratic nomination was Hillary Clinton's to lose. (I also predicted that Mike Huckabee would outlast all the Republican hopefuls except maybe John McCain. "Professor D's latest lucky guess," they joke.)

But when the teasing stops the questions start. "Do you think there is any way that Barack Obama can lose?" they ask. I say nothing, and they share self-reassurances:
"There's no way for Clinton to beat him now .  .  . right?

- Al-Bob

2/23/2008 10:29:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

I'll not read you any further, Gitout, I'm getting a case of that Hardball Sciata.

2/23/2008 10:31:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

"Sciatica"
...whatever, you know, that feeling in his leg Chris gets watching Barry

2/23/2008 10:34:00 PM  
Blogger bobal said...

That's a good touch there Gitout, no booze in the Senator's drinks. And you expect us to believe that?

2/23/2008 11:05:00 PM  
Blogger Doug said...

bobal said...
Bacrack Al-Obama vs Senator Cain. We're sunk.

2/23/2008 11:37:00 PM  
Blogger Charles Gitout said...

Bobal,

Read the transcript for yourself. The sprightly bellhop confesses to drinking heavily. He may have only been drinking with someone who could handle his alcohol much better than he could, being a peach-fuzzed waify plaything to the hardscrabbled AZ representative.

The American people conceive of the most creative explanations for allegations of leaders' misconduct. I would hope this factoid could be suspended so an honest look at McCain could occur. It saddens me greatly to know Americans and the rest of the world will let McCain Jena 6 this poor young man. I can only hope he's not been sent off to a Halliburton re-education camp.

2/23/2008 11:51:00 PM  
Blogger wretchardthecat@hotmail.com said...

Buck Smith,

Given that you live in Australia and spent some part of your life in the Philipines. you just amaze me sometimes with the breadth of the cultural refences you bring.

I watched Jerry West take that 70 footer on TV. Can't remember where. He sent it into overtime, which the Lakers lost. But the shot was an immortal one. With regards to cultural references, I can still remember someone saying to me that only a native born American would know what LSMFT was. I said "Lucky Strike Means Fine Tobacco" and left him in shock.

People often ask me what this strange mixup of backgrounds means to me. And my answer is that my connection to the Philippines is one of family. To Australia I owe my legal allegiance. But to America I am bound with the bonds of love. There. No shame.

2/24/2008 12:44:00 AM  
Blogger bobal said...

Wretchard, every American schoolboy knows, LSMFT means-- Loose Straps Mean Floppy Tits.

Take that man to the firing squad!:)

I recall that Jerry West shot too, very dimly.

2/24/2008 01:34:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

Man, this place is creepier than Obama's Skeleton Closet.

2/24/2008 02:01:00 AM  
Blogger Doc99 said...

Wretchard,

Jerry West made the shot ... but the NY Knicks won the game, the series and the NBA Championship.

2/24/2008 07:05:00 AM  
Blogger herb said...

Wretchard: We can tell.

2/24/2008 10:04:00 AM  
Blogger Doug said...

"On some great and glorious day, the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron." — H. L. Mencken (1920)

2/24/2008 01:36:00 PM  
Blogger Gary said...

Personally, I would think that "Bird Steals the Ball" would be a better analogy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_RJ5XN8TK8

Then, I'm from Boston, so I would.

2/24/2008 03:01:00 PM  
Blogger geoffb said...

Whiskey_199 said
"The likely source for the dirt on Edwards, Hillary, and McCain points to Obama."

My take is that they are all from the Clinton campaign. The story on her is cover for the others and is the only one that could be played in a sympathic way, etc. lonely wife turns to longtime aide for comfort from the pain of her marriage to a cheating husband.

2/24/2008 04:22:00 PM  

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