Surge Counter-Surge
"Iran has responded to the U.S. surge in Iraq with its own surge, the commander of the multinational force said." (UPI) This must, like the Cold War, be one of the strangest conflicts in human history. With friends who are enemies and enemies who are not enemies. If there's a clear strategy for victory on either side of the political aisle, it conceals itself well.
Nothing follows.
posted by wretchardthecat at 6/22/2007 08:30:00 PM
30 Comments:
Wretchard --
Iran's victory strategy is very clear: use the Defeatist lobby (the elites who would lose positions if the war goes on) to gain the US's surrender. It worked with Jimmy Carter. And perhaps both Reagan (Beirut) and Clinton (Khobar Towers).
Very likely Iran will succeed here. Forcing us out of Iran, Kuwait, the Gulf, and likely Afghanistan too.
Already Liberals are shouting "hands off Iran."
Iran is playing a game of 'paintball!'
When you know the projectiles will sting but not kill, your strategy is far more aggressive; victory being achieved by trial and error without real consequence. Capture the frag becomes the name of the game... and it IS just a game. They are scoring kills at leisure.
Until their game has mortal consequences, Iran will continue to play it like wicked adolescents secure in their own virtual immortality, prancing about their fields of battle like dimestore warriors.
'Already Liberals are shouting "hands off Iran."'
As long as they are willing to ride bicycles so that the rest of us may drive after they permit the Iranians to close the noose around the ME oil supply.
Such is the nature of Fourth and Fifth Generation War.
Excellent points already here in the comments section. Please examine Iranian blogs dealing with regime change in Iran. There is progress. Keep in mind the best propaganda is the truth.
Cyberwar is a very important part of this war. New is not really news, it is infowar.
Wretchard and the Fadhil brothers are some of the best infowarriors out there on the net! Roggio and Yon are some of the best to counter the "leftist useful idiot" enemy aiding media out there too.
The wider their voices and data is disseminated, the faster we (Coalition, NATO, true Muhjideen) achieve victory and positive change. IMO, victory means liberty, peace, prosperity and harmony with nature.
Perhaps some outlets like CNN, NYT, WAPO, LATIMES, ABC, CBS, NBC, alJ, etc. will change their slant. If that truly happens, we will be winning!
I work and pray for these results as a servant of The Most High and defender of the Constitution of the United States.
Salaam eleikum, Allahu akbar!
Yon commented specifically that the reporter for the NY Times seemed to be filing accurate stuff. However, today's NYT leads with the following:
Militants Said to Flee Before U.S. Offensive
By JOHN F. BURNS
The second-ranking U.S. commander in Iraq said that Qaeda leaders had been alerted to a plan for an American push in Baquba.
Translation: why bother? They're already gone.
The story goes on to repeatedly say that the reason the bad guys had already left is because American generals, including Petraeus, let slip in their public announcements what was going to happen.
So according to the NY Times, the battle is lost because the bad guys have fled, and they knew to leave because American generals are too stupid to keep their mouths shut.
To me, this is NY Times' slant as per usual, just like they've been slanting for years now. I wonder if that's how Burns originally wrote it.
NahnCee said...
"Yon commented specifically that the reporter for the NY Times seemed to be filing accurate stuff..."
It's interesting to see how Yon damns other reporters with faint praise. In his article he says:
"Alexandra Zavis from Los Angeles Times is down in the heat of the battle bringing home information. Michael Gordon from New York Times is still slugging it out, and his portions are accurate in the co-authored story... CNN has joined the fight. AP came but will stay only a few days. Joe Klein from TIME was here on the 21st and his story posted the same day and was accurate."
Observe that some reporters are listed as "accurate" while others are merely noted as being there. One of Alexandra Zavis' original articles about the Baqouba campaign was standard MSM disinformation, refer to:
http://www.tbo.com/news/nationworld/MGBHCF8O63F.html
I think Yon is trying to tell us as much without poisoning his relationship with Zavis.
It's a good thing that Yon is out there. Without him we'd have almost no valid information about this important campaign (says alot about the MSM).
To read the MSN, one needs a skill akin to that developed by readers in totalitarian states.
I read Odierno (in today’s NYT “it’s lost” report) as clearly saying it’s not a big deal that these guys are on the run - we expected it - they’re not stupid enough NOT to have known we were heading their way (and they’re cowards, by the way).
Yet he is repeatedly portrayed as desperately covering for an embarrassing failure.. then they find some officers (the invariable “some officers”) willing to snipe at the top guys -wu hu! The spin is quite neck-snapping.
regretleft said...
"To read the MSN, one needs a skill akin to that developed by readers in totalitarian states."
Yeah, that's occurred to me as well. We're all becoming kremlinologists.
I've read that during the Civil War it was much worse with newspapers run by Copperhead editors poisoning political opinion. However during the 19th century the US was a much smaller community (a large percentage of the people knew someone who knew President Lincoln). Also I think in the 19th century most people realized that the newspapers only published libelious nonsense (this didn't stop General Sherman from hating newspaper reporters). At least we have the Internet to help us see through MSM lies.
... and I thought there was a time when forcing one's enemies to retreat (yet again) in a disorderly manner (leaving most of their troops behind) was NOT considered a defeat... dunno - maybe it's that 4GW or is it 5GW? - THAT'S the difference.
question is, what happens when and if they retreat over the Iranian border?
and isn't there just ONE eager young reporter out there looking for "some officers" who are insisting that we counter their surge with actions in Iranian territory - we've got to know lots about that haven ... they sure never have problems finding "some officers" who provide the sound bites for whatever the spin-of-the-days is.
Of course, if you re-read the NYT article, they don't have one single quote that an American general let slip, and the writer's reason for opining that all the big wigs had already fled is that "everyone knew" that the triangle of death was a trouble spot, so that naturally the big boss's would flee sooner rather than later.
Also the NYT article doesn't mention any actual names or affiliations of the alleged Big Bosses who fled.
So what they did was to take one off-hand remark made in passing by Odierno quite a ways into his press conference and concoct out of thin air a whole front-page article revolving around the incompetence of the American military, and how once again they have failed at something.
eggplant said ...
"It's a good thing that Yon is out there. Without him we'd have almost no valid information about this important campaign (says alot about the MSM)."
eggplant ---
You might want to look at The Fourth Rail (http://billroggio.com), which also has excellent coverage, and is updated at least once on most days.
Warhorse said...
"You might want to look at The Fourth Rail (http://billroggio.com), which also has excellent coverage, and is updated at least once on most days."
Thank you, I often visit Bill Roggio's excellent website and have previously sent him money. Bill Roggio has also gone to Iraq to provide first hand accounts about the war. However Michael Yon is currently in Iraq and has situated himself to cover what maybe(?) the most important engagements in the Iraqi War endgame.
It is impossible not to admire courage of Yon and Roggio. Both have dodged bullets to counter balance the lies of the MSM. Few people have that sort of courage and conviction.
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In the post-WW2 low-intensity conflicts where a great power occupies a country and attempt to impose its will upon it, the classic difficulty is leaky borders where neighbours hostile to the great power support the local insurgents. In both of the Vietnamese conflicts (vs. France and then the US) China and the Soviets kept Ho Chi Minh’s boys well supplied. In Algeria the French kept 80,000 men trying to keep the FLN from running arms and troops back and forth over the Tunisian border. In both the Afghanistan wars (vs. the Soviets and then the US) Pakistan served as a base for Jihadis flowing into the country. In southern Lebanon during the late nineties, Iran by way of Syria sent Hezbollah enough IED’s to boot the Israeli’s out.
So it’s clear from the military history that perimeter security is the critical challenge to address for the architects of any invasion that includes the goal of forcing the local population to submit to thier yoke. This is especially true when the neighbours of the country you are considering invading are Saudi Arabia, Iran, Syria, Turkey and Jordan.
But by judging from the results, it seems that during the planning for the occupation of Iraq not a whole lot of thought went into the question of how to secure Iraq’s borders.
And for the planners of this war to now be astonished that arms and fighters are pouring in through these sieves is as incredible as an architect being surprised that the rain pours in where he forgot to put a roof.
An architect who forgets to take into account the rain is usually fired and has his license revoked. The strategists of the war in Iraq who ignored perimeter security are not at all blamed for the deaths of thousands of soldiers but are instead given promotions and honours and treated as very serious people.
"So according to the NY Times, the battle is lost because the bad guys have fled, and they knew to leave because American generals are too stupid to keep their mouths shut."
Well, tell you what, NYTimes...
YOU 'splain that to the 179 al-Qaeda DEAD reported yesterday, and the 340 captured, and the 45 injured al-Qaeda who were trapped and neutralized by our American generals and peerless troops!
NYT became no more than a fishwrap 30+ years ago. Any belief in it is an exercise in bourgeois self-delusion.
The NYT makes their position very clear every day, including today. Today's NEWS article on the war is the invariable anonymous deaths in unknown places for indeterminate reasons - like the 15,000 Americans a year who die in the most loyal Democrat precincts.
It's as if the NYT doesn't know Michael Yon exists, and doesn't read US military dispatches on Arrowhead Ripper - they report it all as vague, purposely useless rumors.
And Frank "The Drama Queen" Rich declares in his usual outsized Bush-hating editorial that the surge is already a failure by every measure.
Tokyo Rose couldn't do better.
Can someone clear up this question for me: were the "loyal opposition patriots" during WWII embarrassed when their statements were almost word-for-word matches with enemy propaganda? Say Harry Reid was in the Senate in 1942 or '43 - would he be embarrassed saying the same things as Tokyo Rose - as he now quotes the terrorists' cant?
Wretchard: Although poory documented, you may find it beneficial to look up the history of the conflicts between the Romans and the various Persian states between the time Pompey established Roman influence in the area and the time Heraclius finally defeated the Persians in decisive warfare in the 620's. War has often been fought this way in this part of the world.
Kevin: "And for the planners of this war to now be astonished that arms and fighters are pouring in through these sieves is as incredible as an architect being surprised that the rain pours in where he forgot to put a roof."
Best analogy ever.
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El Baboso said...
"Although poorly documented, you may find it beneficial to look up the history of the conflicts between the Romans and the various Persian states..."
My favorite example of this was the Roman emperor Valerian (Publius Licinius Valerianus). The Persians tricked Valerian into a phoney peace meeting where he was taken alive. Valern then spent the remainder of his life acting as a foot stool for the Persian king Shapur I. Valerian later died in captivity where accounts differ about his mode-of-death, e.g. flayed alive, forced to swallow molten gold, etc. His body was later stuffed and put on display in Shapur's palace or a Persian temple (accounts differ).
A hint to President Bush: Don't do any personal diplomacy in Iran along the lines of "Sadat in Jerusalem". You might end up in an Iranian's living room with a light bulb in your mouth.
People forget.
Arms and materiels do not need to be moved into Iraq...never have. In 2003, the US' standing supply of arms and materiels was about $2.25T. Iraq's was $1.78T. The entire freakin' country was/is an ammo dump. Ponder the comparative scale there. The US had/has it's arms and materiels stored worldwide. Iraq?...aside from whatever got carted into Syria from 9/2002 on?igjls
3case:
That sounds like the Yugoslav doctrine of "General People's Defense", with similar results.
The problem with Reid, Pelosi, Murtha, et al, is they are too stupid to realise what traitors they are!
The shriveled organs of the left, the usual useful idiots, NYT being a prime example, all seem to be losing readership in droves. What to the enemies of liberty do? Fairness Doctrine any one?
This elitist fascist thought control they are attempting disgusts me.
Check Blackfive, under hack attack from those I speak of.
Salaam eleikum, dang....
Iran is playing a game of 'paintball!' - Mr.Atos
As an ex-paintballer myself, I have to agree that's a pretty apt analogy.
Kevin and Unaha,
The most serious mistake the planners of OIF made was assuming there was an underlying nation/civilization beneath the dictatorship.
It kinda looked like there was. They fought a horrible 8 year war with Iran to a standstill. They over-ran Kuwait in a few days. They stood up and adroitly compromised the UN Food-for-Fuel regime. It really looked like there was a nation there, didn't it?
If this was such a mistake with Iraq, should we consider all Arab / Islamic nations as fragile eggs of chaos held together by nothing but a thin shell of fascist totalitarianism?
If so, it simplifies our missions of the future drastically. Third Conjecture, here we come.
3Case said...
People forget.
Arms and materiels do not need to be moved into Iraq...never have. In 2003, the US' standing supply of arms and materiels was about $2.25T. Iraq's was $1.78T. The entire freakin' country was/is an ammo dump.
When we went in, my question was why we hadn't secured or blown up the ammo dumps. Why we made no effort to stop people we saw driving off with whole truckloads of RPGs, anti-tank mines, C-4, machineguns, TNT, howitzer shells.
Same as just about everyone. WTF?
The answers from the Bushie Neocons were:
1. The ammo is the property of the People of Iraq, who will soon decide what to do with it after a week or so of "blowing off a little steam" when they get back to work.
2. US soldiers are spread too thin to guard any weapons stockpiles, have no orders to kill or even stop looters.
3. Besides, the soldiers that are free as Searchers, have FAR MORE IMPORTANT targets than silly conventional arms that are no match for our "high tech supersoldiers". 10,000 troops were assigned to:
a. Search for the hidden vast quantities of WMD.
b. Search by the thousands, everywhere, for "The Hero" - Scott Michael Speicher, some crashed pilot in the Gulf War. Ahmed driving off with a truckload of TNT and blasting caps was less important than "No Man Left Behind" gospel.
c. 2,000 were assigned to search for "looted Jewish antiquities" from 3 museums, a matter of high concern to Top Neocons.
d. The dumps were not blown up from the air by US precision weapons for fear of civilians being hurt nearby, fear or eradicating the WMD evidence.
Contrast that with WWII, where high priority was assigning adequate soldiers to take and hold every German weapons depot until it could be destoyed. Any civilian caught with explosives, even a military rifle, was arrested and a few cases, tried by a tribunal and shot..
Some of those ammo dumps were vast. One soldier described one as "60 Home Depots size of blow 'em up stuff from Russian and China with shelves fully stocked when we went through in April and left for the Speicher search, places pillaged of stuff when we returned in June". The soldier went on: "2/3rds of munitions were still left. I guess they had all they wanted. Gosh knows where they will sell all that stuff. Who wants 10,000 anti-tank mines or 5,000 boxes of plastic explosives?? The Iraqi police will arrest them if they sell it....What was taken to the last scrap was all the copper wire, piping. All the ammo dumps refrigerators, office supplies, medical supplies, truck parts, construction materials. From what we know, the Iraqis who looted things they need like medical supplies were the smart ones...what do you do with a house full of looted artillery shells when you don't have an air conditioner? We never did find Lt Commander Speicher, but he is not forgotten and half of us are still assigned to look through the summer."
The Soviets had a brutal custom of accountablity I half wish the US imposed on folks like Wolfowitz, Franks, Feith, Cheney, Rice, Kristol. In the Soviet system, a NKVD or Party official would walk into the swamk offices of a failed general, the modern day equivalent being World Bank HQ top executive suite...hand over a loaded pistol and wish the comrade "well", shake their hand, walk out..
The Japanese did it will a delicate letter full of poetry for a failed leader. Talking about his family's illustrative past honor never suffering a stain, and how beautiful a single crysthaninum petal is as if falls into a mountain stream to be swept away.
Of course it was basically code for "The Emperor believes you are in dishonor, and your duty is to reclaim it by sticking a knife in yourself and cutting your stomach and liver in half through the agony - to show you die true to bushido.."
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