Ha-ha
What do the kidnapping of a pro-Palestinian British activist and her family; the assault on the Rafah border crossing by disgruntled policemen and firing on the Gaza residence of Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas have in common? My guess: Palestinian politics. Probably the most atmospheric of these three pieces is the description of the kidnapping of Kate Burton and her parents, which not so coincidentally, involved the Rafah crossing that was subsequently seized in the course of Palestinian in-fighting. From the Independent:
The party got into the taxi and headed for the Rafah crossing which reopened after the Israeli pullout from Gaza in a deal brokered by the US Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, and is monitored by the European Union to allow Palestinians from Gaza to travel in and out of Egypt. Mr Khulab said: "They wanted to see the suffering of the Palestinian people and the destruction of the border but also to see how the crossing was working."
They got to see something else: the muzzle end of a "militant" gun.
Mr Mansour said: "It all happened so quickly no one had time to say much. I said, 'What are you doing' to one of the men but he pointed the gun in my face. Kate told her father to get in the [kidnappers'] car. She was calm. No one was screaming or anything. If there was anything I could have done to stop it I would have done, believe me." Neither he nor Mr Khulab had a weapon. Mr Khulab tried to call for help on his mobile phone but the network was busy so they drove to the Rafah police station, five minutes away, and told officers what had happened. The two men stayed in Rafah until midnight desperately hoping for news. Two of Ms Burton's friends, Celine Gagne, 25, and Roberto Vila, 33, have arrived in Gaza from Ramallah hoping for news. Like her, they work for an non-governmental organisation passionately devoted to helping Palestinians under occupation.
Burton was just incidental, a way of sending a message to Abbas that there were other players in town. And whether she was conscious of it or not, probably did the right thing by calmly going along with the kidnappers as if it were the most normal thing in the world. Just another day in Gaza, which of course it was. The Mad Zionist chortles at the precipitate flight of European Union monitors from the Rafah border when it was rushed by gunmen, who turned out to be cops.
The assigned troops from the Effeminate Union, who are stationed at the Rafah border to monitor any terrorist infiltration since Sharon unconditionally surrendered Gaza, fled in a crying panic from the Gaza/Egypt border today after moslems from the PA scared them off with intimidating threats, very mean looks, and frightening hand gestures.
But in fairness, the EU monitors probably understood they were props put there for appearances; nobody actually expected them to do something, so there was no sense getting killed over the incident. They lit out for the Israeli side of the border at the first sign of trouble and waited until things settled down and they could get back to monitoring the crossing. Which of course raises the question: who's jerking around whom? Armed political movements around the world have made an art of turning instruments of Western intervention -- whether from Left wing NGOs or international peacekeeping bodies -- against themselves. For example, in the case of the Ethiopia-Eritrea border dispute the UN Peacekeeping force -- the very force meant to keep the warring parties apart -- has become the hostage to the parties. CNN reported on December 8, 2005:
ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia (AP) -- Eritrea's expulsion order for some U.N. staff threatens the entire peacekeeping mission along the country's border with Ethiopia as concerns deepen that the two nations could return to war, a senior U.N. official said Thursday. Eritrea has given the U.N. mission's North American and European staff 10 days to leave, a demand the U.N. has rejected. Eritrea has offered no explanation for the order. A preliminary assessment of the order's effect on the U.N. mission showed it would threaten supplies, transport and communications, said Joel Adechi, the mission's deputy head, via video link from the Eritrean capital, Asmara.
Readers will recall that after the UN "imposed" a regime of sanctions on Saddam Hussein after the Gulf War which included weapons inspections, he regularly threatened to cancel the inspections unless he was given concessions. North Korea routinely threatens to starve its citizens to death unless it is given what it wants. And the EU is practically begging the Iranian President to diplomatically humiliate them just one more time. Sanctions, food aid, inducements: there's apparently no foreign policy lever that can't be turned around to hit its wielder over the head with. It's an absurdity seemingly apparent to no one, least of all those whose careers are invested in keeping these farces going. But it's been argued that "jaw-jaw is better than war-war" so that no matter how apparently futile a "process" or "engagement" is, it ultimately serves the cause of peace if prolonged for a sufficient number of decades. Yet if diplomacy were judged by its fruits it's amazing how unfailingly these processes have yielded nothing but misery and fighting. Maybe the Gaza politicians have a better idea: "jaw-jaw while you do war-war".
posted by wretchardthecat at 12/30/2005 11:29:00 PM
59 Comments:
Those who took courses in negotiation in management school will remember the importance of knowing what your opponent values. So long as you let your opponent keep what he values most he will concede almost anything to keep it. Exploiting the shape of your opponent's utility function is a very powerful tool.
Terrorist organizations have the advantage of being morally and politically unconstrained. Their only limitations are physical. When pitted against one-dimensional objects like diplomats, who have to keep talking at almost any price, terrorists can exploit their degrees of freedom to fly rings around their immobile opponents. 'Give me money so I'll be good' and 'I'll return the money if you don't give me more' or even 'Hands up!' are all good negotiating lines. They work because the diplomats have to keep the process going at almost any cost. The man who wishes too ardently for peace will eventually get it, but not in the way he hoped for.
Wretchard D. Cat: Concur yr analysis, and offer, therefore, that 'Peace' is more than the cessation of open hostilities or combat!
Waging peace has been the sole animating purpose of those lovers of the Righteousness that is Christ in the Glory of God: they have been teaching and practicing and living the life for more than 161 years now, and their efforts at waging peace involve:
+grassroots literacy programs
+women's rights programs
+promulgation of the equality of races
+teaching that EVERYONE is charged, in this Day, with investigating the truth, independently
+accepting the necessity for a moral system (religion) and a rational system of investigation of ALL areas of life (science)
+the right and responsibility of nations to secure their collective security
...and these efforts are establishing the foundations upon which others can engage in negotiating jaw-jaw OR war.
"O SON OF MY HANDMAID!
Guidance hath ever been given by words, and now it is given by deeds. Every one must show forth deeds that are pure and holy, for words are the property of all alike..." The Lord of Hosts
If all the opponent values is the destruction of the enemy, talk is cheap. But, as recent events have indicated, the Mohammedans do value Family, Tribe & Religion.
The Mohammedan Issue is still being 'handled' as a Criminal and Political problem. Not a War.
The evidence of this is all around.
But is highlighted by the situation in Sudan, Palistine, Syria & Iraq.
Even the US has it's share of folk who do not believe the US is at War, in the Congress, SoD & CIA. If one were to look at US actions against the Global Mohammedan Threat, it has not been much of a War, yet.
Building schools and establishing Governments are post War operations, often refered to as 'reconstruction" or "Civil Administration", they are not parts of an active military War.
So it may be that jaw jaw is the solution, as there is no will to fix & destroy the enemy.
As aristide linked to some weeks ago, the US Military has not yet figured out the scope or scale of the enemy. They do not, it seems, believe what they read, nor the statements of Mohammedan officals.
The Mohammedans do not think like US. Their Goals are not the same as ours, peaceful coexistence is not part of their End Game. It is not a thing they seem to value, at all.
No live and let live with them.
Rat, the thrust of your 'not the characteristics of WAR' are right on.
Still, that is the NATURE of this war: It is different than its predecessors in many important ways, not least of which is the distributed nature of the anti-West combatants (and hence no ability to 'fix' them to a certain geo-political spot).
Another difference is the rate of change humanity is now living through, a time when the 'water of knowledge' floods our world, swamping and drowning some, and washing over others in cleansing, freeing waves and rivulets through Internet, cable and broadcast media.
For some years now we have looked at the antics of the Palestinians and wondered what kind of a country such attitudes could create.
Now we know:
A country two notches below the world of "Mad Max".....
Sometimes I think the Palestinian dynamic has been distorted by the fact that the eventual existence of a Palestinian state has been guaranteed by international consensus. This has tranformed the struggle for nationhood, which is a constructive thing, into a power struggle, which is a competitive, almost zero-sum endeavor. And the reason for unnatural state of affairs, ironically, is the existence of Israel. The justification for Palestine's existence is as the anti-Israel. It is an atonement for the existence of the Jewish state. If Israel did not exist the antics in Gaza would be seen exactly for what they were, and not, as is today, in their completely opposite aspect.
This guaranteed existence of a Palestinian State created an unnatural set of qualifications for its leadership as exemplified by Yasser Arafat. The legitimacy of acceptance was not required. Leadership was about inheriting the mantle of a state whose existence was sacrosanct.
I'm almost certain that Burton will have no harsh words for the "militants" who kidnapped her and her family, nor will the EU take umbrage at the gunmen-by-night, cops-by-day. Nothing must be allowed to smear the bright and shining vision of what never was, and more tragically, unlikely ever to be: a decent state under which ordinary Palestinians can lead their lives.
What do the palestinians value?
death to israel, death to the jews...
created by the egyptian's, the so called fake people, "palestinians" have been forged by ex-nazis to murder jews...
arafat, the egyptian, who used to hold the murder cult together is dead....
now this fake construct is unravelling... today islamic jhhadi & hamas had a gun fight to determine who would preach sermons in gaza...
yesterday, gunman from the RULING fatah kidnap and extort money from british jew haters that were in gaza to help "palestinians"
"palestinians" complain that israel will not allow buses into the west bank, and say israel should not fret over "homemade" rockets (over 300 since israel withdrew from gaza) that havve been fired from juden-free zones of gaza
daily stabbings, suicide attempts (and some successful), rocks, rifle shots eminate daily from liberated palestinian lands..
It's important to take note, that the soviet union dissolved overnight (even though it took 25 yrs) the arab world is changing, the future of a palestinian state is not a "for sure" thing anymore, not if the powers that wanted it so badly are no longer standing... The UN? The EU?
My prediction?
Hamasistan & Fatahistan
The Israeli FENCE will at some point start becoming the wall that the arabs so claim it to be... projection is a wonderful thing..thanks to the palestinian death cult, israel is going to seal off these mad max on crack zones and allow them to become absorbed back into the belly of the islamic beast. Peace at all costs is a death sentence.
What the arabs fear most is humilation...
let's give it to them by allowing themselves to act the fool...
pass the pork rinds, the show must go on...
I'm not sure of the exact geography, but I think Rafah/Gaza was where the blue-lids were first shown to be worthless back in the '56 war w/ Egypt. The UN Peacekeepers got told to clear out and did. Oh, what a different world it might be if they'd said no. The UN might be a legitimate organization rather than a den of iniquity.
carridine
A War that is unlike any other is not a War.
Using the WWII analogy we are in the midst of the Phoney War, but even that is inaccurate, because there was a War in Europe, the enemies were known, just not engaged. Today we still do not know the Enemy, because Religion cannot be allowed to enter into US Policy.
The Religion of Peace has been hijacked, all Billion of them, right.
Because in the end, it will be like all the others or the jaw jaw or as some would say, the appeasement, will have been successful.
The implantation of an Apostate "western" government in Iraq will not dissuade the Mohammedans. It may limit their "State" support, but there is plenty of that available, across the Iraqi borders.
The "World" is concerned about an Iranian nuke, that does not yet exist. But never mentions the vunerability of the Pakistani weapons, or the entire country, to being hijacked by the Mohammedans.
Remember that it was the Pakistanis that invented the Taliban. Those mad Generals are not that far from the nuclear weapons. The good Doctor Khan, the developer of the Mohammedan Bomb is still free, in Pakistan, he has never even been interviewed by US.
It is in Pakistan that 300,000 armed Mohammedans operate outside the Government controlled areas. The Tribal Lands of the Afghan border region.
Wars are terrible and vile, we are not yet engaged in one.
In Palistine the curtain is being pulled aside, the Wizard exposed, but to what end. Those that knew the enemy have been proved correct, the others still refuse to see what is plain to the eyes.
Another WWII analogy would be if that four years after Pearl Harbour the US still had not figured out the Japanese in China were part of the enemy force. Those Japs had not even seen an aircraft carrier, so how could they be to blame for Pearl Harbour, after all they'd been in Nanking.
There are none so blind as those that will not see.
Politics are bounded by the fault-lines of contention. Introduce to this the complexities of the geographic chest board and one would wonder if there are not already too many players in the game. But it is a matter of certainty that when additional ‘pawns’ are added on the board that they would be manipulated to their full potential by those who would control by deception, subterfuge, and the force of arms the game board.
The naiveté exhibited by Europeans in matters of Jihad, mimics their erstwhile romantic infatuation with Bader Mein hoff, the IRA, and Che’.
One might look forward to a time where the extremely dangerous potential of a nuclear capable terrorist might evoke the ire of the Euro-PC elites, to beg off the subtle, incorruptible onslaught of truth and receive instead, the ‘gift of desperation’.
When Fatah, Hamas, al Quada finally come together, locked arms and arms, and form a uniquely ‘Arab’ form of government, a triumvirate if you will, they will be hailed by Europe as modern statesmen and Osama bin Laden will receive the Nobel Peace Prize with the likes of his successor, Yasser Arafat.
The only question is will the Arabs wisely bide their time or will they blunder into the worlds’ cross hairs by an act of outrageous misadventure.
What is the tripping point with Europeans?
The better question is what is the tipping point for the US?
DR,
It’s true, I was thinking of the schism of US resolve on such matters as I posted my last comment. One can argue though, that the US under the much maligned Bush administration has made positive steps to answer the violence and the taunts and threats of the Mohammadens with deadly force, meted out however prudishly. But when have the Europeans managed to ‘wage peace’ anywhere? With the exception of Britain, and occasionally France (though I cannot think of a peaceful outcome [Ivory Coast?]), where is Germany, Spain, Belgium, or Sweden in using their carefully polished diplomatic credentials in solving anything. Are they only capable of trashing the Us of A?
Apparently so.
Well all here agree that the decline in popularity of the LA Rimes is deserved, they still have many, many readers. They also represent the thinking of many of US. Just shy of 50% of voters in the 2004 election, just a bit above that mark in 2000.
Speaking of what people will not see is this description of the Francofada
"... Then came this fall's riots in France, blamed by some on French chauvinism toward Muslim immigrants but in reality more a result of soaring unemployment caused by government regulations that discourage job creation. ..."
In both LA Times explanations the fault is with the French System, not in the Mohammedan element. The possibility is not even broached, let alone discounted.
The Algerians that trained in Iraq, unmentioned. The coordination of and communication between the rioters, unremarkable.
Not Race, not Religion not a lack of assimilation to a "European Standard", no the cause of the Francofada is economics and the lack of opportunity in a economicly stunted France and greater Europe.
The 'real' story of the Francofada in the LA Times story entitled
"Embattled Europe"
Desert rat- the enemy is known! But there are no brave western leaders to MARK the BEAST and lead the charge! It will take a WMD attack to muster the courage to proclaim the enemy of Freedom and Civilization that has existed for 1400+ years!
WRETCHARD said the key to unlock the full victory! KNOW WHAT THE OTHER VALUES and in WAR you hammer it till it doesn’t move! We are in an UNDECLARED war with the true enemy and the reason it can’t be declared until the WEST/CIVILIZED world suffers the massive death incident is because it would cause such a shock if the true enemy was pronounced that Millions would die within days around the world! If this MASS death does not happen soon then the WEST will have lost the fight.
Wretchard said:
"Exploiting the shape of your opponent's utility function is a very powerful tool."
Desert Rat said:
"Their Goals are not the same as ours, peaceful coexistence is not part of their End Game. It is not a thing they seem to value, at all. No live and let live with them."
And therefore, the problem faced by the Israel, the US, the EU, and other non-Islamic countries.
It is impossible to negotiate with a partner that views negotiation as a never-ending continuum, not a process that will lead to a result that is acceptable to both parties.
One party (e.g., israel, the US, EU) makes a continuing stream of tangible concessions and is met by the other party's (e.g., Palestinians, Saddam's Iraq, Iran) empty promises. Worse, when the latter party breaks its empty promises, it is not held to account. There simply is no downside for the latter party, and 'negotiations" plod forward while death and destruction are planned in the shadows.
The big question, I think, is whether there is a third alternative other than jaw-jaw or war-war. Jaw-Jaw does not seem to work in the ME because the Islamic utility function morphs repeatedly. War-War is difficult, expensive, and messy because our political culture puts far too many constraints on how such a war must be fought.
Is there something else that can be done?
French intelligence certainly knows the score. But the government keeps the plebs in the dark for their votes will be harvested later. They must be made to feel secure in the warm embrace of an all caring state. It is the sheep verses sheepdog plurality, but I keep on having visions of Morlocks and Eloi’s, yuck.
What social injustices that led Hussein to the border of Kuwait in 1990? The down trodden scum of the earth are the most obliged to defend their honor in daring do. Conquest needs no social cause and gives mock legitimacy to its’ adherents.
The Mohammaden Army is positioning itself in the bosom of its’ foe, like a jackal in a litter of poodles.
am
So you think they govern by wink and nod in France as well as Washington?
A secret clandestine war, fought in the alleys of the suburbs of Paris and Lyon?
Occassional arrests of Algerians and Morroccians, the cracking of one cell and then another is Police work, not a War.
A War that is not acknowledged cannot be won. Goals that are not set will never be met.
Early aggression would have been better. When the 4th ID was denied landing rights in Turkey, they should have sailed on to Haifa.
From there it would have been an easy drive to Baghdad, stopping in Damascus on the way.
The US was ready for the Mohammedan War in 2002, to bad the battle we had was not decisive, it well could have been.
We'd be that much closer to winning. Without genocide.
Rat,
There is cancer.
Cancer that tears tissue apart is -clastic.
Cancer that builds something crooked and malformed is -blastic.
Whether Islam is tearing down the west or building another dysfunctional, aberrant and oppressed state, its a CANCER.
Pakistan to Patagonia, Indonesia to India, they hold to the form of life and preach, teach and promulgate death and terror!
Bush et al. exhibit wisdom by NOT making the whole ummah 'enemies', even at the cost of seeming misguided or ignorant.
0030 in Bangkok, Happy Calendar New Year, y'all!
DR,
The French have been cooperating in the shadows as well as the Germans. It is a shame that they must cooperate with a wink and a nod as they do but better than no cooperation at all. Innocent faces at the table but lots of toesy beneath the façade.
I think you’re right, that the problem is manifest in the inability to call war a war, but this conflict comes when the West is the weakest after denuding itself with fanatical secularism, and is, by some accounts, not so much as a war as a cultural melt down.
I think though, it is easily enough said that there is the military and there are law enforcement agencies, and never the twain shall meet, but quite the opposite, I have a hard time distinguishing the methods of the LA SWAT team and a Navy SEAL assault team. I suspect some of the team members have blurred lines on their resumes themselves.
Gratitude again to Wretchard, his point about a guaranteed Palestinian state is profound. People normally have to co-operate and learn have to peacefully reconcile their differences in the struggle to "earn" statehood, but since statehood has been "given" as an eventual certainty by the Powers, we see the zero sum game of warring amongst themselves. And as our Savior said, those who live by the sword will die by the sword. The sword is the principal means they rely on to resolve disputes. We cannot change this. Soflauthor discusses Jaw-Jaw and War-War and asks "Is there something else that can be done?" Given that the sword will not depart from "Palestine" I believe Sharon's much-reviled policy is best: reduce your exposure to attack (by closing isolated settlements and constructing the Fence) and let the fools kill each other. Sure, Al Qaeda and its lookalikes will take up residence in the territories, as they do in any lawless place. I suspect they will find the territories less accomodating than would appear on the surface -- AQ is just another violent gang among many in a place like that. AQ may have global aspirations and connections but will have to pay for protection or fight to survive in that neighborhood. Bottom line: the best practice is containment until there is a winning party in our zero sum game, and then that party will have something to lose and will be willing to be semi-responsible in exchange for statehood.
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
It is not "Statehood" the Palistinians want, that is the Goal you percieve, the Goal you'd aspire to, the Goal that we project.
Statehood was REJECTED as an option
It is not their Goal, at all.
Never has been.
Never will be.
It is not "Statehood" the Palistinians want, that is the Goal you percieve, the Goal you'd aspire to, the Goal that we project.
Statehood was REJECTED as an option
We surely don't think the dreadful Pal's are working towards that worldwide Caliphate, do we?
Could we sum up their goal as easily as, "Kill Jews"?
I am going to do something C4 say is a zionist trick...
i am posting the source link, something all crafty shift Joos do...
http://www.fafo.no/indexenglish.htm
Palestinians support the cease-fire but actions against Israel still seen as legitimate as long as occupation prevail
22.12.2005
An in-depth survey conducted by Fafo before the violence in Gaza of the past week hows that there is wide legitimacy for violent actions against Israel. Nevertheless, at present people support the cease fire and do not agree to attacks from the Gaza Strip against Israel. A majority wants the Intifada to stop. People consider that the Israeli pullout of Gaza has improved the living conditions there, but people in the West Bank have not had the same experience. An overwhelming majority think elections should go ahead as planned in January 2006
83 percent think it is in the Palestinian people's interest to keep the cease fire (Thadiaa) with Israel, 57 percent believe that the Intifada should stop, but 69 percent see violent action as a legitimate means in the current political situation, and half of them believe that suicide attacks are necessary to force Israel to make political concessions. There is also a strong support, especially in Gaza, to Al Qaida's actions in USA and Europe. The satisfaction with the PA is generally low, but people look forward to the January elections, and a majority - 74 percent - believe that the elections will improve the living conditions in the Palestinian territories. 38 percent will vote for Fatah, 17 percent for Hamas and 17 percent have not decided yet.
So long as you let your opponent keep what he values most he will concede almost anything to keep it.
islamic values in the middle east..
murder jews
tax christians as 2nd class citizens and repress them, rape them and murder them
use hospitals, schools and mosques as ammo dumps
honor kill daughers or wives that disrespect the family
settle arguements within society with hot lead or sharp knives
kidnap international supporters for cash payoffs
smuggle arms, drugs & exposives thru international borders
use the public airwaves to promote suicide bombing
use the public airwares to lie and brain wash the stupid masses into believing the world is flat...
make legal treaties and agreements and lie while making them
these are some of the islamic values of the middle east...
can't negotiate with someone that wishes your grandchildren to be disenbowled..
pass the pork rinds
nahncee
While not all Palistinians are for the war, check porker's poll, they do not resist it.
They do not 'drop a dime' and I am not sure there is any Palistinian Policeman to call, that cares, anyway.
Of those engaged in active combat against Israel, is there a connection between the combatants in Gaza and those on the West Bank? And again with those on Israel's northern border. Is there a connection between Hezzbollah and Hamas. aQ has claimed credit for some of the rocket attacks in the north.
The all march for Mohammed's Banner
So yes, I'd say that today the Palistinians are part of the Battle of the Caliphate. No true Mohammedan can let the Dome of the Rock remain in infidel hands.
If they want to retake Madrid, disrupt Paris and chase US out of the Middle East, then reoccuppying Jerusalem cannot be far down the list of Caliphate Goals.
Is the existence of Israel part of the Mohammedan Wars, better believe it.
And regardless of what old C4 has said time and again, Borders will not solve the problem, nor will more or greater cash payments to the Mohammedans.
Only when one side or the other wins, will the war be over. Our side hardly pays lip service to the idea of the War, let alone Victory.
In that the President of Iran is correct, for him the War will be over when Israel is gone from it's present locale.
He has defined Victory, have we?
summignumi,
I think there's a third way, if you will. There's an excerpt I posted of this article in the other thread. Here's the link to the original article. Since I've already posted some of this, I'll just transcribe:
Under Arab Islamic conquest, many peoples got dressed in the clothing of Arab Nationalism. (Ethnicity, culture, history, language, religion, etc). It was that or face dhimmitude, annihilation.
The failed Islamic Empire and Archetype is losing its strength. Already you've been witness to the unraveling and disintegration this Empire. You might not have been aware of this, but the Jihadists sure have. It started with the rebirth of Israel, and it will continue as the various Arabized peoples of the region start to seek and reassert their identity. The democratization process the US is now pushing forward is the way to make this possible.
The Kurds could be first of such peoples to discard the trappings of Arabism/Islam. And in the race towards modernity, others are to follow. The Islamists just can't compete in this arena. And they can't keep people in ignorance in perpetuity. Of course the Jihadists will never come to term with any loss to the Ummah. Democratization represents the beginning of the end to the Dhimmitude Empire. Jihadi enmity towards the other, and their increasingly precarious supremacist ideology, will ensure that end.
How many Battles have been fought over Jerusalem since the dawn of time?
This could just be considered the latest in a long line of Crusader Battles for Jerusalem. The "West" has held it for what, about 65 to 70 years, this time?
Not all that long, historicly.
You have to hand it to the Mohammedans, though, through thick and thin they keep workng towards their Goal. Across the Millenium, can't say that about US.
Gentlemen and ladies:
Good discussion, but I fear we are circling back to the issues of how to deal with "failed states" again. I think ed's prediction of Al Queda moving into the Palestinian state is more likely than not - although the terrorist organization there may have no real derivation from Bin Laden's group, and merely be a franchise.
In Gaza, though, the problem is not likely to be the 90% good/apathtic 10% terrorist/supporters situation we have seen in Iraq. The ratios are likely to be almost reversed.
They will offer no more than a nuisence threat to Israel, and the advent of new anti-missile defenses may well improve that considerably as well.
But we cannot allow failed states to serve as bases and breeding grounds.
I see only one answer: Handle this with people that know how to do the job and will brook no nonsense.
Send in the Iraqis!
rwe
But, as of today, except for in the Sudan, all the Mohammedans are anywhere is "no more than a nuisence threat" from a military point of view.
Even 9-11 was insignifigent, militarily.
" ... Large scale clear & hold operations such as Sword, Iron Fist, Rivergate, and Steel Curtain are less likely to be executed, as the efforts are moving more and more towards reconstruction/civil military affairs operations and a policing solution. ..."
Excempt in Ramadi where there may be one last battle to clear the city
" ... Major General Huck, the commanding general of the 2nd Marine Division whose area of operations includes Ramadi, has indicated to me the preference was to chip away at the insurgency in Ramadi, but would not rule out a full scale assault, and has repeatedly made this clear to the leaders of the city. If there is one place the Coalition is likely to go on a major offensive, it is Ramadi. ..."
Or so reports.
That was from Mr Roggio
The Mohammedans are not a real threat until they are.
Just when that tipping point is reached, that is the crux of the question.
How many Battles have been fought over Jerusalem since the dawn of time?
This could just be considered the latest in a long line of Crusader Battles for Jerusalem. The "West" has held it for what, about 65 to 70 years, this time?
Not all that long, historicly.
You have to hand it to the Mohammedans, though, through thick and thin they keep workng towards their Goal. Across the Millenium, can't say that about US.
ah but you can say that the JEWS whose city it IS has held on to it for many years more than anyone else...
how long did the KINGDOM of ISRAEL last ? 1200 years....
Jews have been in Jerusalem for 3000 yrs plus, islam is but a recent PIMPLE on David's City..
Let's not forget, islam is nothing but a NEW upstart group of thieves, after all all they did was STEAL jewish places and stick a green dumbass flag on them
Ed,
The Caliphate is about control and control over a dominion of poverty is not much of a prize. I am less doubtful that in the end, deals will not be struck in order to share a piece of a lucrative peace. Politically there will be posturing early on (guns and all), but I am not so sure that some sort of stasis will not be achieved in the long run. I guess we’ll have to see how it plays out.
A "Palestinian State" serves at least two useful functions. First, it gives Israel some political cover, enough to complete the "fence," an essential security requirement.
Second, it provides a political enitity against which Israel can declare war. In the mean time, Mossad will keep AQ at bay in the west bank.
The Palestinians have no choice but to enter the modern world or be destroyed.
Iran faces the same choice, but their decision must come sooner.
"I'm almost certain that Burton will have no harsh words for the "militants" who kidnapped her and her family, nor will the EU take umbrage at the gunmen-by-night, cops-by-day.
Nothing must be allowed to smear the bright and shining vision of what never was, and more tragically, unlikely ever to be."
---
Quite reminiscent of our Admin Paying the Mexican Military to be gunmen-by-night, cops-by-day.
...one difference being that tragically, prior to the corruption of Govt officials at all levels on both sides of the border,
something which once was is now but a bright and shining vision of what tragically is unlikely ever to be again.
In my simplistic point of view Fatah wants local rule, Hamas wants local rule and destruction of Israel as a blood debt, and al Qaeda wants all of the above and a purchase upon nationhood and international status. Their goals do not conflict necessarily, yet seem to intersect.
porker
I'm not disputing the Jewish title to the land. I have never given it much thought, really.
They hold it today and it is US Policy to help them. To change the Policy could only help the Mohammedans.
The real issue is not about the past and how we came to this juncture, but about the future and how the Conflict can be resolved.
Free Elections, from the Med to the Persian Gulf, destroy Damascus's ability to project power and we'd be one step closer to a final solution. One that would not have met with Mr Hitler's approval.
Could have done it in '03, but the powers that be would not listen. Not for the first time, either.
Those who took courses in negotiation in management school will remember the importance of knowing what your opponent values. So long as you let your opponent keep what he values most he will concede almost anything to keep it. Exploiting the shape of your opponent's utility function is a very powerful tool.
This reminded me of Steyn's Schwarzenegger column (via Steynonline.com):
Americans have responsibilities, Europeans have attitudes. Indeed, the EU has attitudes in inverse proportion to its ability to act on them. It's able to strut and preen on the world stage secure in the knowledge that nobody expects it to do anything about anything.
The outcome of negotiation has value to the Europeans insofar as they can use the data it generates to bolster their attitudinal redoubts.
Because the EU can spin a several sigma deviation as success, the value of the negotiation lies in the simple fact of its existence. What actually happens is footnoted.
When the end of negotiations is itself considered a failure, the enemy has all the cards.
Jaw Jaw,
War War,
Or Run Like Hell:
Olympic gold medalist Meseret Defar, center, has become an icon for many young Ethiopian women
Ha-ha.
Sorry, thought I linked this:
Facing Servitude, Ethiopian Girls Run for a Better LifeMeseret Defar, 22, the 2004 Olympic gold medalist in the 5000 meters, holds...
In Ethiopia, girls as young as 12 can be sold as brides by parents desperate for dowry payments.
The country has Africa's highest rate of vaginal fistulas, a tearing of the vagina that often afflicts adolescents during childbirth and requires painful reconstructive surgery.
Ethiopia, an impoverished country of 73 million, also has one of the largest caseloads of AIDS in the world, forcing many girls to quit school and care for a sick or widowed relative.
Since few homes have running water or electricity, cooking and cleaning take most of day.
There are also cultural taboos against girls walking long distances through desolate bush to school.
Parents fear rape and abduction, which are often carried out as a way to force a girl into marriage.
"Teenage girls in Africa are the most vulnerable population in the world," said Alessandro Conticini, who heads the child protection and HIV/AIDS sections at the UNICEF office here.
"They do more work than their brothers. They are far more vulnerable to dropping out and being forced into domestic labor . . . forced marriages, prostitution."
Geez, 73 million. That's half the population of Russia!!
Geez, indeed.
I like the idea of using American-trained Iraqi troops as Middle East Hessians. I'll have to mull that a bit more to see where the thought takes me.
You never know if a Muslim will take that Koran thing about not killing other Muslims seriously or not. So very often, they don't and never have.
Methinks the Palestinian problem is Jewish blood is to cheep. When some scumbag suicide bomber strolls into the pizzeria and detonates what is lost? Israel looses some average Joes the Mohammedans loose a punk that they are better off without anyway, maybe a few cinderblock homes, or some other scumbags depending on how mad Israel gets. The average Palestinian who knows someone who is going to do a suicide bombing probably thinks that looser is going to blow up some Jews. He does not think that looser is going to get me and mine killed; this is because practices targeted killings when they need some good wholesome violence, indiscriminate shelling should do it.
Also we help fuel their support base when we pipe our ghetto culture around the world via Hollywood and New York. Seriously, forget what you know about your neighbors and community for a moment and flick on the tube to a major network or listen to some rap music. What do you think about those people? While we should care about the views of terrorists and their diehard supporters only to the extent that it makes us more efficient at killing them, people on the sidelines and some of their milder supporters can be swayed if we stop scaring them that their daughters will become whores or their sons queers because of our cultural influence. Do you care when you see on the news some pimp gets stabbed to death at a pub on the other side of town? Look at the media, that is our image to the world.
It's a good point, Dan.
Ghetto-culture is ubiquitous nowadays in the banlieues of French society. It is, if you think about it, nothing more than male self-congratulation and gratification, recast as a hip realism. When mixed with the misogyny and other pathologies of Islam in the West, it is a toxic brew for disaffected youth who have a built-in anti-society disposition.
The French riots might be a glimpse of a worst-case scenario of cultural cross-pollination: A ghettoized Islam, armed and unafraid, nurtured by the policies, and sicknesses, of social democracies.
About Farris Hassan, idealistic adventurer:
His father, Redha Hassan, a doctor, said his son is an idealist, principled and moral. Aside from the research he wanted to accomplish, he also wrote in an essay saying he wanted to volunteer in Iraq.
He said he wrote half the essay while in the United States, half in Kuwait, and e-mailed it to his teachers Dec. 15 while in the Kuwait City airport.
"There is a struggle in Iraq between good and evil, between those striving for freedom and liberty and those striving for death and destruction," he wrote.
"Those terrorists are not human but pure evil. For their goals to be thwarted, decent individuals must answer justice's call for help. Unfortunately altruism is always in short supply. Not enough are willing to set aside the material ambitions of this transient world, put morality first, and risk their lives for the cause of humanity. So I will."
"I want to experience during my Christmas the same hardships ordinary Iraqis experience everyday, so that I may better empathize with their distress," he wrote.
Farris Hassan says he thinks a trip to the Middle East is a healthy vacation compared with a trip to Colorado for holiday skiing.
"You go to, like, the worst place in the world and things are terrible," he said. "When you go back home you have such a new appreciation for all the blessing you have there, and I'm just going to be, like, ecstatic for life."
His mother, however, sees things differently.
"I don't think I will ever leave him in the house alone again," she said. "He showed a lack of judgment."
Hassan may not mind, at least for a while. He now understands how dangerous his trip was, that he was only a whisker away from death.
His plans on his return to Florida: "Kiss the ground and hug everyone."
http://ap.cjonline.com/pstories/20051229/3525344.shtml
If you think about it, this could be an incredible coup in the information war.
Leave it to a 16 year old to put things in perspective for us adults.
Happy New Year to all. It's time to drink.
The Palestinians are almost insane with hatred.
What would they have to do to be declared officially nuts?
To an Iraqi he is a regular American. Even if he spoke fluent Arabic, which he did not, he would be very easy to spot as an American. This is true of Americans in Europe. Doubly so in Iraq. What I find amazing is that Customs in Kuwait or Iraq did not detain him on the spot and try to ship him back to the USA that same day.
Mika, Aristides, C4...
Absent from so many of your otherwise excellent analyses is the explicit awareness that we've 7,000 years of recorded history to study, but the first 7 'days' of that time is history about a largely illiterate, king-and-priest-ruled, speed-of-horse world.
SOME comparisons can be valid, but so many things changed in the year 1260 AH (1844 Common Era) that the explicit acknowledgement of being in a new Day leads too often to comparing the apples of Jesus' day to kumquats and freeze-dried eggs of this day...
The socio-political dynamics of THIS day must be shaped to the emerging realities OF this day, Friends.
...LACK of specific acknowledgement...
Apologies, PIMF.
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Quote of the (new) year, from Palestinian newspaper editor Hafez Barghouti:
"The recurring attacks on Palestinian Authority institutions and the kidnappings of foreigners makes it look as if we are competing with the warlords and militias in Somalia over who would win the "Nobel Prize for Anarchy,'" he said.
"...Kate told her father to get in the [kidnappers'] car. She was calm. No one was screaming or anything..."
see: Britons freed
For a "kidnap victim" it appears Kate Burton is very calm - almost too calm.
As many of you know there have been "theories" on the net about well choreographed "kidnappings." I am wondering if Kate Burton's "kidnapping" was faked for various reasons.
I recall two faked kidnappings in Iraq (I believe one was a Japanese women and the other was a US soldier of Middle Eastern decent - if memory servers me).
More over, the recent Susanne Osthoff "kidnapping" has a bad odor to it. PA groups have used faked "funerals" and the fake "killing of a child by IDF soldiers" to further their cause. It's not impossible to conclude the "kidnapping" of Kate Burton could have been prearranged.
Then there is the odd case of Susanne Osthoff dressed in black mask and hijab on German television - this is bizzare to say the least. One would almost mistake her for a terrorist. Take a look at the picture.
See: Former Iraq Hostage Makes Bizarre TV appearance
[#57 zombie takes a guess]:
As with the previous hoax kidnappings in Iraq since 2004, the steps in the production went like this:
LLL group decides to take "direct action" to help their allies in Iraq, the "insurgents." LLL group identifies a likely fake "victim," contact her, ask if she'd be willing to be an actress in a hoax news event. She agrees. Jihadi group is contacted, invited to play the role of "kidnappers." They agree, perhaps for a fee. Script is written and rehearsed repeatedly. Plans to ask for the release of the jailed terrorist developed by German LLLs. Jihadis agree to make the demand.
Susanne memorizes all the LLL talking points she will say to the media: jihadis were "professional," ..."Kidnapping" takes place at pre-arranged time, likely at "Kidnappers' Corner," where several other hoax kidnappings have been staged in Baghdad. Susanne spends a month in luxury at a safe house, occasionally putting on a "victim" performance for the jihadis' video camera...
see: Posts #57, #120, #153 and others.
If we give the British activist the benefit of the doubt, then it's been a heck of year for the sympathizers of 'militants'. Sgrena kidnapped, Sustan Osthoff kidnapped, Burton kidnapped, Gardner shot; the Christian Peacekeepers kidnapped. EU monitors rousted out of their offices. It goes on and on.
Just now Burton has vowed to return to the place she loves. I guessed she would have nothing bad to say about the guys who poked a gun in her parent's face only a few posts back. But the guess wasn't hard. It was easy. In breaking news more gunmen have seized a building. A similar group of bandidos, identified as "off duty policemen", have set up a checkpoint. You gotta wonder what's going to wear out first: the people happily getting their faces slapped or the hands doing the slapping.
Earlier, I argued that the incentives are all wrong because you give a bunch of hoodlums guaranteed sympathy no matter what their behavior. So a Palestinian leader doesn't have to do anything like collect the garbage, build hospitals, pave the streets, kiss babies, etc. to earn the respect of the "international community". They've got legitimacy stuck to them like a cheap suit, so glued on that not all the blood in the world is going to wash it off. So what's the use of behaving like normal human beings when they can go around burning, kidnapping, shooting, beheading and what not -- and they still keep sympathy. May the supporters of the "Palestinian people" think they are helping them by suspending all the rules of moral judgment, but they aren't. By their insane moral blindness they are raising a crop of badasses who are going to make the people they profess to love miserable. Sometimes I think the badasses, in their own way, make more sense then their leftist claques.
...it's been a heck of year for the sympathizers of 'militants'. - Wretchard
Yes, it sure has.
...I argued that the incentives are all wrong because you give a bunch of hoodlums guaranteed sympathy no matter what their behavior. So a Palestinian leader doesn't have to do anything like collect the garbage, build hospitals, pave the streets, kiss babies, etc. to earn the respect of the "international community". They've got legitimacy stuck to them like a cheap suit, so glued on that not all the blood in the world is going to wash it off... -Wretchard
Well said. A mark of a good confidence man is the illusion of legitimacy. And, it looks like the PA has quite a number of these confidence men. The sympathizers only add ligitimacy to the con-game (or, are actual confederates of the con-men).
Mika is right, Islam is not a monolith. In fact, ever since Karbala poured blood on the split between Sunni and Shia, they have had 2 major factions of so-called believers. Understand, too, that many (if not most) muslims are casual believers. I am not defending Islam, it is a truly satanic religion (read Mohammed's biography if you want a nice history of lies, betrayal, violence, robbery, and rape all in the name of God) but for most muslims it is part of the cultural landscape and provides structure and some level of decency/justice for day-to-day living. The Palestinians (or orphaned Jordanian/Egyptians, if you will) have been sold the dream of killing the jew and taking his stuff for all their short history. It's their identity, and they have no ideological problem with the expansion of the "caliphate" but that is an abstract dream when they have pressing daily needs. As I mentioned earlier today, now that Sharon has them bottled up you will see far more internal violence than attacks against the Israelis. Eventually the most ruthless group will "win" and will settle for statehood (not officially, but in practice) as dividing the spoils takes precedence over taking on Israel. The Arab states have learned that fighting Israel is a losing and humiliating proposition. As Heather points out, the unifying principle for Palestinians will be MONEY, which talks while the other stuff walks. No doubt we'll hear Islamofascist rhetoric from the Palestinians long after its passe elsewhere else -- they always seem to choose the way of the loser. But they are gradually getting check-mated, if Syria goes democratic in any form/fashion then the Palestinians will have alienated all of the surrounding states. If you haven't been to the middle east, you don't understand how the Palestinians are viewed. The average Abdul may be sympathetic to them collectively, but they are not liked personally. The violent free-for-all among Palestinian splinter groups/parties to divide the spoils is the key point of current events. The Iranians, Jordanians, Syrians, Egyptians and Israelis will secretly back all sorts of groups so my advice for "peace activists" is to get the heck out of there because the real violence will be Palestinian vs Palestinian in a fashion that best resembles 1980s Beirut.
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