Monday, October 31, 2005

The Long War

Newt Gingrich in a statement before the House Subcommittee on Intelligence characterized the War on Terror as the "Long war" against the "Irreconcilable Wing of Islam". He believed this struggle could take centuries to reach a decision and would be fought largely by words in rooms and city streets.

The Long War is 90% intellectual, communications, political, economic, diplomacy, and intelligence focused. It is at most 10% military. We have not yet developed the doctrine or structure capable of thinking through and implementing a Long War (30 to 70 years if we are lucky) on a societal scale. This challenge is compounded because it is fundamentally different from waging the Cold War against the Soviet Union. The Cold War was essentially a grand siege in which a defensive alliance could contain the Soviet Union until it collapsed.

Just how different the Long War might be from the wars of the 20th century is indicated by his next paragraph, which compares it to the Reformation, a struggle which left almost no aspect of society untouched.

This is an inherently offensive war in which we have to actively defeat our opponents. Furthermore this war resembles the Reformation-era wars of religion in which fellow nationals may be traitors serving the other side (examine Elizabethan England and the origins of the English secret service as an example).

The problem in such a struggle is defining "we". Who "you" were was the essential question in the Reformation; and much depended on the answer. The bitterness with which it divided Tudor England is still remembered in the following account.

Queen Mary I of England is called Bloody Mary because she persecuted Protestants during her short reign (1554-58). Her sister, Elizabeth Tudor, persecuted Catholics during her long reign (1558-1603) and she is called Good Queen Bess. Mary is criticized because she burned Protestants whom she considered heretics, but Elizabeth is praised as shrewd for persecuting Catholics, who did not accept laws passed during her reign making her both secular and spiritual ruler. Violations of these laws were considered an act of treason punishable by hanging, drawing, and quartering.

Although US casualties in Iraq have passed the 2,000 mark, the number is small in comparison to the loss of life associated with the World Wars. The following table showing the Office of Management and Budget's estimates for the coming decade of US defense expenditure as a percentage of GNP shows America is preparing to spend proportionately less for military activity than at any time in the recent past.

Decade Percent of GNP
1960s 10.7
1970s 5.9
1980s 5.8
1990s 4.1
2000-2009 (projected) 3.4

 

Yet in terms of its impact of social attitudes, political institutions, cultural and religious life, the Long War's effects may already have been far-reaching. Consider the somewhat comical example of George Galloway. The tabloid British Daily Record says that George Galloway is negotiating with Hollywood to produce a story of his life. 

Galloway sidekick Ron McKay is also to feature in the film,which documents their early days in Dundee through to their infamous meetings with the Iraqi dictator. ... "I have suggested Danny de Vito plays George and George Clooney plays me." [McKay said]

While some are preparing to lionize Galloway, other parts of society are moving to throw him behind bars. Another British paper reports that he is being investigated by three separate government agencies.

George Galloway, the staunchly anti-war British MP, will be investigated by the United States Department of Justice for claims he lied to the Senate over Iraq oil money, The Business can reveal.

The Charities Commission in England and Wales has also requested documents which the US Senate permanent sub-committee for investigations says prove that illegal Iraqi oil money was laundered through a charity of which Galloway was a trustee. A dossier is being sent to Sir Philip Mawer, Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards, who has a far broader remit to protect the reputation of the House of Commons and is expected to look into Galloway’s conduct as an MP.

Hero to some, heel to others. That description would apply not only to Galloway but to Ward Churchill, Karl Rove, Cindy Sheehan, Johnny Walker Lindh, Pat Tillman, Paul Wolfowitz or Cat Stevens. The example can even be extended to institutions like the Department of Defense and the United Nations. Each of these names acts like litmus paper to determine who "we" are. They describe a boundary line across the cultural face of the world. One agency which would immediately agree with Gingrich's characterization of the Long War as "90% intellectual, communications, political, economic, diplomacy, and intelligence focused ... [and] at most 10% military" is Al Jazeera, which has been fighting US military power through television, print and radio.

Shameless Plug Alert

The cultural aspect of the Long War is only being belatedly recognized. One man who is going to participate in this battle of ideas and words is Bill Roggio. He will embed with troops in Iraq to continue his blog. Mr. Roggio needs support to buy items like body armor and other gear which he must provide at his own expense. Please visit his site and help if you can.

Commentary

My only thoughts are that Gingrich's Long War is a consequence of a larger phenomenon, the end of the European era. The rise of America to global dominance is, from another point of view, simply the result of surviving the European crash. David Fromkin argues in Europe's Last Summer that the Cold War was the tail end of the most consequential event of the 20th century: the Great War, caused by the fact that European Powers had run out of countries to conquer and hence, fell upon themselves. America has remained functional and grown to power as a nation, but it does not, nor does it seek to dominate the world to the extent of Europe in its heyday, when Britain alone governed a quarter of the world.

What the Great War did not wreck and the Second War did not finish off, postwar socialism did. Europe is facing death spiral demographics and flat economic growth. If current trends continue, India will surpass the German economy within a few years. But nowhere have the effects of Europe's only indigenous religion, Marxism, been more pronounced than in the country that embraced it most closely: Russia. Mark Steyn in The Australian revives a term once reserved for the Ottomans when he calls Russia The Sick Man of Europe.

Russia is literally dying. From a population peak in 1992 of 148 million, it will be down to below 130 million by 2015 and thereafter dropping to perhaps 50 or 60 million by the end of the century.  ... most Russian women are voting with their foetus: 70 per cent of pregnancies are aborted. ... Add to that the unprecedented strains on a ramshackle public health system. Russia is the sick man of Europe, and would still look pretty sick if you moved him to Africa. It has the fastest-growing rate of HIV infection in the world. By 2010, AIDS will be killing between 250,000 and 750,000 Russians every year. It will become a nation of babushkas, unable to muster enough young soldiers to secure its borders, enough young businessmen to secure its economy or enough young families to secure its future. True, there are parts of Russia that are exceptions to these malign trends. Can you guess which regions they are? They start with a "Mu" and end with a "slim". 

The world may be reverting to the pre-European era, and Gingrich's Long War may really be the Long War for the survival of the West. Not its return to dominance, but simply its right to continued existence; to the chance of rediscovering its identity. Winston Churchill understood that even the vast conflict which engulfed him was a battle within a larger War, for the preservation of something far greater than the survival of governments. 

In private, Churchill was not always so sanguine. He forced himself and others, he admitted, to be brave "because everyone realized how near death and ruin we stood. Not only individual death which is the universal experience, but incomparably more commanding the life of Britain, her message and her glory."

Islam has always been militant and the West only recently supine. In fairness, Islam's only fault may be that it retained a belief in itself long after the West embraced self-disgust. It may be that Gingrich's Long War is less about fighting Muslims than about the West rediscovering itself. While it's apparent battlefields may be in the mountains, jungles and desert fastnesses, the only frontier that matters is in its own heart.

153 Comments:

Blogger Jamie Irons said...

W.

I sent Bill Roggio a substantial sum (for a guy who has four sons in college and graduate school), and I have sent an even larger sum to that other in-theater journalistic hero, Michael Yon...

I urge all of us to support these gentlemen, and to support you...

Jamie Irons

10/31/2005 01:08:00 PM  
Blogger Kirk Parker said...

I've never thought that Gingrich's reputation for thought was at all well-deserved (how dumb to you have to be to be impressed by the Tofflers, for heaven's sake?) However, this piece you quote seems right on the money. Go, Newt!

10/31/2005 01:27:00 PM  
Blogger desert rat said...

Mr Newt, watched his Class on C-Span, I think. An interesting fellow, seems pretty bright.
I agreed with him when he was a Congressman. The House was worse for his leaving, I think. Mr DeLay is not in the same league.

Agree totally that we are not yet very engaged in the Intellectual battle. After their old systems failed and "reform" failed in many States they have moved to Freedom through Elections. Novel idea.

Do not be surprised if Iran follows the pattern of Poland, Georgia, Ukraine or allah forbid Iraq.
With a little help from their friends.

10/31/2005 01:32:00 PM  
Blogger Aristides said...

The Long War is 90% intellectual, communications, political, economic, diplomacy, and intelligence focused. It is at most 10% military.

I wonder what the percentages for each of the above have been throughout the human history of cultural natural selection, and I wonder how they fluctuate in efficacy.

Each of these categories listed by Newt represents a particular subset of evolutionary strategies, the uberset being "Survival". If Newt is to be believed, one must ask oneself whether the evolutionary strategy of war is, overall, developing diminishing marginal returns. In other words, do these percentages not also imply an ethical development in the human condition.

Whether the ethical development was inevitable ("The future is not determined, but history does have a direction.") or dependent ("An armed society is a polite society" embellished by technology) is quite beyond knowing, but I do think it noteworthy that wars between cultures are becoming less violent and more cerebral.

10/31/2005 02:02:00 PM  
Blogger Doug Santo said...

"Hero to some, heel to others. That description would apply not only to Galloway but to Ward Churchill, Karl Rove, Cindy Sheehan, Johnny Walker Lindh, Pat Tillman, Paul Wolfowitz or Cat Stevens."

I don't agree with lumping Pat tillman, Paul Wolfowitz, or Karl Rove in with the other names mentioned. Only the extreme far left believes that Pat Tillman's sacrifice, for instance, is equivalent to Jhonny Walker Lindh's. That thinking is so far outside the thought of everyday Americans that it doesn't merit serious consideration.

Off topic.

Important action today in the U.N. Security Council. They passed a resolution calling on Syria to provide full cooperation with the investigation into Rafiq Harriri's (spelling?) death. This is the first nail in the coffin of Assad's Bathist regime. I don't think it far-fetched to imagine the investigation going all the way to Assad. Many more suicides may be in the cards for Syrian officials.

The US must maintain extreme pressure on the Syrian government. Both overt and covert. This includes covert military operations across the border.

This is the latest benefit of the Iraqi war policy and the Presidents idea of exporting free government to the people of the Middle East.

Doug Santo
Pasadena, CA

10/31/2005 02:06:00 PM  
Blogger Tony said...

In terms of the Long War, it seems our enemies already 'get it.' Somehow, our recently zealous peaceniks think our surrender will do the trick. It won't.

Letter from al-Zawahiri to al-Zarqawi

"Al-Zawahiri's letter offers a strategic vision for al Qa'ida's direction for Iraq and beyond, and portrays
al Qa'ida's senior leadership's isolation and dependence.

Among the letter's highlights are discussions indicating:

* The centrality of the war in Iraq for the global jihad.

* From al Qa'ida's point of view, the war does not end with an American departure.

* An acknowledgment of the appeal of democracy to the Iraqis.

* The strategic vision of inevitable conflict, with a tacit recognition of current political dynamics in Iraq; with a call by al-Zawahiri for political action equal to military action.

* The need to maintain popular support at least until jihadist rule has been established.

* Admission that more than half the struggle is taking place "in the battlefield of the media."

10/31/2005 02:11:00 PM  
Blogger TM Lutas said...

Conducting a "Long War" is essentially anadmission that the Peace of Westphalia is dead. The US has no experience in such a war because we haven't had such a thing since 1648 when the Peace of Westphalia was signed.

10/31/2005 02:18:00 PM  
Blogger Red River said...

Newt has it right.

The only real parallel we have is Elizabeth's clash with Catholic Spain.

Spain sent thousands of priests to England to attempt to convert it. Spain also did the same thing to the Dutch.

Its a largely unwritten history that can only be tangentially defined by reading the comments in letters and in the laws of the time.

10/31/2005 02:24:00 PM  
Blogger Andrew Scotia said...


Military Force Packaging
This a link to the only way, militarily, that we will be able to fight the Long War. And, I must agree that it will be long and not simply a Combined Arms fight but a Combined Arts conflict that will have many characteristics of a civil war in that so many of our fellow citizens want nothing to do with it.

We are lucky in that many of them insist on taking themselves and their cohorts out of the fight by locking themselves into positions that the average voter cannot support. I have no problem, in this case, running roughshod over them and their sensibilities because they have proved over and over that they will not fight. One of our duties will be to encourage this behavior. I'd rather kick a vicious toy poodle than have to deal with a Rottweiler.

But, we cannot bank on this behavior forever. My greatest fear is of a Democratic or Republican appeaser with military credentials and a security policy that is more than singing Kumbaya and trying to get the UN "behind the initiative".

It is Us against Them and Them is a motley lot indeed of Old New Left, educated morons, wretched ink stained scribes, professors, paper mache puppet makers, IED fabricators, Lord Ha-Ha's, dupes, insurgents, covert operatives, islamofascists and outright traitors.

We must be always prepared to make sure that there are more of us then them and that we have the guns. Mao was right, political power does, ultimately, grow out their barrels. The locks, the stocks and the barrels.

We may yet see a "State of Internal Security Emergency" under the provisions of the 1950 Act promulgated by a sitting American President; one of the parts which I believe has never been challenged in court. I hope not, but it is something to keep in mind as we prepare to, "...pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe to assure the survival and the success of liberty"

Plug that quote into Google and reflect on how the mighty have fallen.

10/31/2005 02:37:00 PM  
Blogger Cedarford said...

Gingrich isn't enough tob dispel 4 years of Bush stupidity that the war was really about a few thousand "evildoers" employing the tactic of terror. Or that only 1% of Americans - the "hero" cops, firefighters, military, and Federal gov't employees needed to be involved while the rest of America was encouraged to buy yellow ribbons, enjoy their tax cuts, and buy lost of Chinese stuff.

Fortunately, Gingrich and others finally pounded into Bush's thick skull that Islam is NOT the Religion of Peace, the Saudis are NOT "our great partners", and Bush should be shitting about the Open Borders and spread of Radical Islamists mosques throughout America and Europe.

But it's more than 4 years pissed away by Bush mostly on his fear of secular Iraq, which hated radical Islamists, obtaining non-existent WMDs.

It's momentum.

And bringing back the Russians, Chinese, Oceania, India, Europe, Japan, Canadians, and moderate Muslim countries to an American struggle of ideas not controlled by the neocons.

Crudely put, Bush shot his wad on Iraq. It will be up to the next President to show a higher level of intelligence and gain allies while waging a war of ideas with Radical Islam, and, only if necessary, resort to military "sticks" against a foe that can be fought with non-military initiatives, as Gingrich said, for 90% of the war.

10/31/2005 02:37:00 PM  
Blogger enscout said...

DOD is crazy for not funding (approved) contract journalists like Roggio & Yon.

An imbed being much more valuable in this war than traditional "boots on the ground".

10/31/2005 02:39:00 PM  
Blogger jim said...

andrew scotia: My greatest fear is of a Democratic or Republican appeaser with military credentials and a security policy that is more than singing Kumbaya and trying to get the UN "behind the initiative..

Like Wesley Clark? He worries me a lot. And we know him (my husband worked with him).

10/31/2005 03:34:00 PM  
Blogger JB said...

"But it's more than 4 years pissed away by Bush mostly on his fear of secular Iraq, which hated radical Islamists, obtaining non-existent WMDs."

The notion that Saddam's "hatred of radical Islamists" would have necessarily precluded him from an alliance of convenience to strike a blow at the perhaps moreso hated US is rather fanciful, isn't it?

Secular, schmecular. Puh-lease. It takes a crippling lack of imagination to ignore the message sent to every tinpot dictator around the globe in the wake of 9/11. I simply can't take this argument seriously. It's not strictly a battle against Islam.

Communications is good, but it's only feasible along with a credible threat of force.

10/31/2005 03:47:00 PM  
Blogger al fin said...

The popular cultures of Europe and North America lack the will to fight "The Long War." Europe has virtually surrendered already. Canada is not far behind.

All it will take is one moment of weakness by the american voting public in a presidential election. Someone like John Kerry or Al Gore as president of america guarantee the surrender of the west, which would be irrevocable.

Perhaps it is time to begin training the resistance. The maquis?

10/31/2005 04:13:00 PM  
Blogger Andrew Scotia said...

c; Yes, I was thinking of the "Perfumed Prince" when I put that in. He combines the worst aspects of Dugout Doug and Cardinal Richelieu, to my mind.

10/31/2005 04:16:00 PM  
Blogger Dan said...

The main intellectual obstacle is that for Muslims of whatever degree of orthodoxy the Koran is literally the uncreated font of human knowledge. This is a serious problem. I get the impression that it's impossible to comprehend just many intellectual and cultural habits derive from or are predetermined by this central ontological fact. This makes perfect sense of course because Islam is indeed, as Schopenhauer off-handedly said, "the stupidest of the monotheisms." Although various exegetical techniques and schools of law/scholarship exist, none of these strain the written word to the extent that it could countenance outright abrogation of central tenets or tolerate the dismantling of the basic injunction of Allah: extend the House of Islam to the ends of the earth.

People hold up Ottoman Islam as indicative of its ability to develop moderate, pluralistic tolerance. Unfortunately this is complete crap; somehow it gets creditted for tolerance because it did not result in the equally imagined uninterrupted pogroms of Christian early modern Europe.

But of coure this is the real problem: the Great War, the license to gave to institutional despair, the end of Empire, the aesthetic fallout in the schools, abetted by Marxism, itself a form of barbarism. Marxism's violence must be met now with equal and opposite overwhelming intellectual violence. Some goddamn manliness is in order for fuck's sake!

The mass media must be taken over or dismantled in some way.

10/31/2005 04:18:00 PM  
Blogger sirius_sir said...

Cedarford, isn't it at least possible that a self-sustaining democratic Iraq might be a rather good asset in "waging a war of ideas with Radical Islam"?

Consider that momentum.

10/31/2005 04:28:00 PM  
Blogger John Koman said...

First, a hearty kudos to you for another insightful analysis,

It looks like Gincrich has been reading his Philip Bobbit Shield of Achillies. The fundamental elements of the fight against Islamofascism run deep and will be hard to irradicate. What Bobbitt identifies as strategic/tactical, legal/constitutional, and the changes in economic systems are what are in question in our current war.

Odd that the propaganda arm of this war is being fueled by the MSM and not the governments involved. I for one will be glad when the PC movement is a thing of the past.

One question, will hollywood make galloway into another Mumia Abu-Jamal?

tag

10/31/2005 04:35:00 PM  
Blogger Cedarford said...

sirius_sir

Yes, there is the hope that after Bush blew 4 years refusing to name the enemy and alienating most of the world on fighting the enemy with his insistance on Iraq - that the noble purple-fingered men of Islamist Iraq - after chucking the loud-mouthed, uppity bitches into Chadors - will continue to insist that Americans fight and die for them while they sip mint tea.

10/31/2005 04:42:00 PM  
Blogger NahnCee said...

The US has no experience in such a war because we haven't had such a thing since 1648 when the Peace of Westphalia was signed.


Since the U.S. wasn't a country yet in 1648, I'm pretty sure we didn't sign off on whatever it was that Westphalia agreed to.

10/31/2005 04:51:00 PM  
Blogger Dan said...

C4 - would you rather have seen an Iran/Saudi Arabia/Pakistan assault?

10/31/2005 05:05:00 PM  
Blogger GEB4000 said...

Newt's right that 90% of this struggle is between our ears. Europeans through their self-loathing and nihilistic belief systems our losing the will to exist. Why propagate when you hate yourself? If you don't believe in anything why would you bother interrupting your decadence with years of self-sacrifice to ensure that future generations of your kind continue?

The same thing is happening on the West and Northeast coasts of United States. Americans of European descent are reproducing well below replacement level. When these people are not expressing how lonely and miserable they are, like Maureen Dowd, they are laughing at all those churchgoing Neanderthals in the Heartland. Keep Laughing guys. In a hundred years you'll be gone and those simpletons in the Middle America will still be there. When you’re to cool to believe in anything, you end up being to cool to exist.

10/31/2005 05:07:00 PM  
Blogger enscout said...

The UNSC resolution calling for Syria to cooperate with their investigation, I'm sure, has Assad quivering in his boots.

The only thing Assad respects is the power of the UMSC right across the border.

10/31/2005 05:17:00 PM  
Blogger heather said...

More hope at the simpleton watch: Brian C Anderson, at the City Journal (www.city-journal.org) has a great article on Conservatives in Hollywood. His argument is that the reason there is mass shunning of Hollywood's wares, is that the Lefties want to make "edgy" entertainment (ie, porno, anti West, anti American). People are just quietly boycotting the Tim Robbins politico types when they make movies.

At the same time, the blockbusters, like Spider-Man 2, the Incredibles, Lord of the Rings, - the movies that celebrate heroism and family and duty - are making tons of money.

The trouble is that the Left hasn't a clue. They thought they could market "Kingdom of God" to the Christians who loved "Passion of the Christ" - the Crusades, etc - with an opening scene showing a Catholic priest beheading a woman; ALL the Moslems are noble and wise and every single person associated with the Christian faith is a murderer and a liar.

This is a time of flux, and the old established elites simply cannot understand what is happening. They are incompetent in every field they dominate. So, they must - they will - be swept away if anything of our civilization is to survive.

10/31/2005 05:24:00 PM  
Blogger desert rat said...

nah, it's the Army Rangers that give him pause. Those Marines are to far from a beach to worry Assad.
Well maybe not, Syria looks kind of like a beach, a lot of sand, anyway.

10/31/2005 05:25:00 PM  
Blogger P-BS-Watcher said...

A long war on a societal scale that is mostly intellectual in nature. Sounds like the Crusades. Oops. Can't say that. Now I see why this is hard.

10/31/2005 05:38:00 PM  
Blogger Peter UK said...

I agree with C4,President Bush should have gone on television and announced,"This is it folks,we are at war with the worlds second largest religion"
The President Kerry could have later stated that "It was a a mistake,and ex-President Bush was in good hands and taking his medication".
"I coming out there to give you all a big hug,I've served you know!"

It was obviously a mistake to take down to two weakest nations flanking Iran,having a large army next to Syria was mere happenstance.
Silly to fight just those regimes which are the most belligerent,fight them all,watch the oil dry up, the world economy collapse.Really piss off China,India and Japan,they won't going back to bicycle economies.
Much better to find a Secretary of State who will stand up in the UN and say,"This is it people Armageddon time! For all those not familiar with nuclear war,head for the nearest open space and look away from the blast,see you in the next world".
Subtle,very subtle!

10/31/2005 05:45:00 PM  
Blogger exhelodrvr said...

Ironic that by "survival of the west" you really mean "survival of the Americas and the Pacific, plus India"

Europe is in it's death throes as a significant western power.

10/31/2005 05:52:00 PM  
Blogger Peter UK said...

Heather,
In Marxist terms we are in a pr-revolutionary state,the ruling elite has become effete.The only difference now is there is not a subordinate economic class ready to take over,we live in prosperous times.
If however you see Islam as that subordinate class,as to do the left,then it is a different question.
I view what is happening as a world wide revolution by those who believe the ruling elite of the West does not have the will to resist,they are half right.
There is also a presumption that ordinary people are too decadent and hedonistic to fight,this is a grave error.

10/31/2005 05:55:00 PM  
Blogger exhelodrvr said...

TM Lutas,
If you consider everything that happened during the Cold War years, I think that we do have the experience of a long, protracted war. Remember that that period included the Berlin Airlift, the fight against the Communists in Greece, the Korean war, the VIetnam War, plus 45 years of high tension in between. And all that started immediately after WWII, which was only 20 years after WWI. So if you lump all those in together, (as they really should be when viewed with a long-term perspective), we do have that level of experience. But I'm not sure that the America of today is up to facing that again.

10/31/2005 05:59:00 PM  
Blogger Oengus Moonbones said...

Add two complicating factors to the "Long War":

(1) The Loony Mullahs of Iran getting knukes, which should be real soon now.

(2) "Peak Oil".

We are certainly living in "interesting times".

10/31/2005 06:11:00 PM  
Blogger sam said...

Iran-Al Qaeda Axis: Tehran Protects Top Terrorists:

There's no guarantee that sanctions will get Tehran to swear off its terrorist ways. But, because Iran's economy is so centralized, trade gives the mullahs pocket change to cause trouble at home and across the globe.

So while a nuclear-armed Iran is a serious - but future - threat that has a (slim) chance of a diplomatic solution, the Iranian-al Qaeda terrorist threat is here and now, making the time for action - not negotiations - long past.

http://www.theconservativevoice.com/articles/article.html?id=9348

10/31/2005 06:48:00 PM  
Blogger prospero said...

No enemy could be easier to defeat if we were intellectually and morally self-confident enough to repulse any and all signs of enmity to us, our allies, our institutions and our principles. But no enemy will be more difficult to defeat if we find it impossible to do everything that has been stigmatized as "racial profiling," "Islamophobia," "ethnocentrism,' and so on. The left has written a script over the past 50 years or so in which enemies of the West are invariably "constructed" out of our own xenophobia and the multifarious and insidious agendas of the powerful. In these caricatures, the enemy is a caricature, bloodthirsty, beyond reason, inhuman. And we now have precisely the enemy the left has attributed to the paranoid imagination of the right. Of course, Islamofascism has its own roots in Islamic society and its crisis; but the methods of warfare of Islamic terrorism are perfectly, even uncannily, tailored to conform to precisely the weaknesses "progressivism" has insinuated into Western society over the past several decades. The two agencies are completely parasitic on each other--at this point, the decisive defeat of one will be a huge step toward the defeat of the other (with different means in each case, of course). But their parasitism attaches to us as well, to the self-critical tendencies and self-doubt that are intrinsic and glorious elements of Western culture, and which we need to endlessly protect as well as contain.

10/31/2005 06:59:00 PM  
Blogger SpudIslander said...

Peter UK, your understated rebuttal of C4 is is a gem! I'm still chuckling!

I think that Newt is probably right, and comments made by Aristides regarding the diminishing returns of armed conflict has some merit. Ultimately, however, informational warfare , and real world diplomacy, can only succeed if the parties at the table are thoroughly convinced of the seriousness of the players. I believe we'll look back in our own lifetime , and see the events of 9/11 as the beginning of the turn of Western civilization. The 90 or so years that separate us from the Marxist/Leninist movements of the early 20th century seem to have brought us to the end of that cycle.

I have optimism in the strength of this country, and the electoral victories of Bush, Blair, Howard and Merkel give hope that the voters of these countries do understand the stakes. Skilful management of information will become increasingly important for Western governments. The rise of the new media needs to be used to transcend MSM echo chambers.

I'm really convinced that we can all maintain the pressure and will to win. There are no other viable alternatives.

10/31/2005 07:14:00 PM  
Blogger sam said...

Remarks by Stephen Hadley to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee National Summit 2005:

As you know, President Bush is a dedicated friend of Israel. He has pledged to Prime Minister Sharon that he will never ask Israel to take risks with its security to suit U.S. purposes or to suit U.S. politics - and he never will. But if we succeed in our broader objectives in the War on Terror and in Iraq, Israel will be more secure as a result.

The relationship between the United States and Israel is the warm and supportive friendship of two strong democracies, and it has never been stronger. With your help, we will keep it that way, and we will together help to build a Middle East where Israel's democracy is joined by others that share its devotion to peace.

http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2005/10/20051031-4.html

10/31/2005 07:20:00 PM  
Blogger gumshoe1 said...

"The main intellectual obstacle is that for Muslims of whatever degree of orthodoxy the Koran is literally the uncreated font of human knowledge. This is a serious problem. I get the impression that it's impossible to comprehend just [how] many intellectual and cultural habits derive from or are predetermined by this central ontological fact."
-dan

it's stunning dan,
the number of otherwise intelligent
westerners who don't see
the role the Koran plays
in recent world events.

even a brief reading of it,
shows how negotiating with
terror/Islamists is a non-starter.

imo,part of the problem stems from
the contempt of "the educated classes" for *all* religions,
and their anxiousness to
pronounce all religions as *equal*.

10/31/2005 07:37:00 PM  
Blogger sam said...

Can al-Qaeda Endure Beyond bin Laden?:

The question of al-Qaeda’s longevity after the demise of its figurehead is ultimately unanswerable until bin Laden is actually gone. There are those who believe bin Laden is dead—which would surely be one of history’s best kept secrets—and argue that al-Qaeda has proven its survivability.

Too often, al-Qaeda’s post-bin Laden future is discussed solely on the basis of who will place him. It is asked whether the successor will have bin Laden’s intelligence, charisma, and jihadi credentials.

The Afghan jihad was expensive, and bin Laden saw this reality first hand. Bin Laden, moreover, was directly involved in the funding process, serving early in the war as a channel through which private and official Saudi monies went to the mujahideen.

Many wealthy Muslims were willing buy weapons for the Afghans but were unwilling to work with Riyadh or the U.S. government. Faced with this reality, bin Laden and other Arabs crafted a weapons-procurement system for the Afghan mujahideen that, like the funding mechanism, ran parallel to the U.S.-Saudi system.

Bin Laden, Abdullah Azzam, and their colleagues began their jihad careers building and managing a network that supplied men for the Afghan war. Bin Laden et al. brought non-Afghan Muslims from across the Islamic world to Pakistan to serve as fighters and as workers in hospitals, arms dumps, refugee camps, clinics, and NGOs.

Bin Laden’s 1988 operational priority was for al-Qaeda to train Muslim militants from around the world at the groups’ camps, and provide far-flung Islamist insurgencies with a cadre to train fighters locally and be a “stiffening agent” for local forces. The al-Qaeda cadre added to Taliban forces in 1996, for example, added skill and professionalism to Mullah Omar’s campaign against the Northern Alliance around Kabul.

From al-Qaeda’s first day to the present, bin Laden’s priority has been to incite and instigate Muslims to support and participate in a defensive jihad against the United States and its allies. He and his lieutenants have spent large amounts of money, time and imagination to build a world-class media and propaganda apparatus.

Al-Qaeda’s post-bin Laden effectiveness will, in significant measure, depend on leadership qualities of his successor. Realistically, there is little reason to think a potential successor will have the same credentials and talents that have powered bin Laden’s leadership.

http://www.jamestown.org/news_details.php?news_id=147#

10/31/2005 07:50:00 PM  
Blogger trangbang68 said...

That analysis of the of Russia is chilling.What happens to those 10000 ICBM's when it all comes crashing down.Does the last peasant alive trade the keys to the silo for a couple bottles of vodka?
The west is in for the fight of its life and the outlook is nowhere certain.Incredibly most of us don't even know it.
Jesus said at the end of time,"there would be distress of nations with perplexity...men's hearts failing them for fear for looking after those things which are coming upon the earth,for the powers of heaven shall be shaken"
He describes this being the condition of the world leading up to the end of the "time of the Gentiles" when God Himself would intervene to save Israel"
(Cedarford's head explodes at the thought)
Newt's a smart guy,I guess,but he doesn't know where this thing is headed.

10/31/2005 08:02:00 PM  
Blogger gilliam said...

Any thoughs on Thomas Barnett's new book?
Blueprint for Action : A Future Worth Creating

10/31/2005 08:23:00 PM  
Blogger sam said...

Islamic Jihad: The Conclusive Case:

With the appearance of The Legacy of Jihad (Prometheus Books), a new compendium of documents relating to the doctrine and history of jihad. Edited by Dr. Andrew Bostom.

Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas has attributed Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza to the murders perpetrated by suicide terrorists (“martyrs”): “The sacrifices of the martyrs, the wounded and the detainees, made the occupiers leave Gaza and evacuate the settlements.” Yet when Abbas visited the White House last Thursday, President Bush praised him as “a man devoted to peace.” One may hope that there is more to this, albeit going on behind the scenes, but on the surface this seems to be born of an appalling naïveté and unwillingness to take Mahmoud Abbas’s own words at face value.

This is but one small example of the general denial with which both officials and the media have met the statements of jihad terrorists about the relationship of their deeds to Islam. The Legacy of Jihad betrays that willful blindness in a harsher light than ever before.

http://www.humaneventsonline.com/article.php?id=9980

10/31/2005 08:40:00 PM  
Blogger AnechoicRoom said...

"less about fighting Muslims than about the West rediscovering itself"

"the only frontier that matters is in it's own heart"

And why they will never win. They may not go quietly in the night. But go they will. For all their bloody bluster, they will scurry as the might of our hearts. Pounds them into fleshy crumbs, to be carried away by the breeze.

10/31/2005 08:41:00 PM  
Blogger sam said...

Soldiers search for missing Ohio reservist in Iraq:

To the troops of the Army's 10th Mountain Division, finding Army Reserve Sergeant Keith "Matt" Maupin of Batavia, Ohio, has become a quest that defines their values as soldiers.

Thirty-two members of the Fort Drum-based unit spent seven hours Saturday inching over terrain, overturning rocks and probing bushes on a stretch of land between two highways in the Abu Ghraib section west of Baghdad.

A tip had suggested that Maupin's body might be there.

http://www.wcax.com/Global/story.asp?S=4054334&nav=4QcS

10/31/2005 09:36:00 PM  
Blogger Vercingetorix said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

10/31/2005 10:11:00 PM  
Blogger Robin Goodfellow said...

I'm somewhat surprised by Gingrich's insight. He tempts me to get back to blogging before all my good ideas are spilled out in public by others. Nevertheless, he misses the mark somewhat. Culture and religion and society and governance are only really expressions of the current global struggle. The nexus is modernism. Meaning science and technology, reason and logic. And how such modernity (in such various forms as GPS guidance, the internet, women in power and in the workforce, the automobile, engineered food crops, personal liberty, democracy, and much else) clashes, has been clashing, and will continue to clash with rigid traditionalism (viz. rote leftism, elitism, fundamentalist religion, rigid social structures, and the, ironically, more modern romantic anti-modernism, etc.) As pointed out, it is a clash no less profound than the Reformation.

And, as yet, with no sure outcome.

10/31/2005 10:12:00 PM  
Blogger Vercingetorix said...

Hold on, a couple of things. The Great War essentially inaugurated the totalitarian alternative to parliamentarianism, as Russia failed almost immediately into Bolshevism and Italy and Germany to fascism. From the Great War to the end of the Cold War, the real ‘Long War’ was this struggle between the totalitarians and democracies, and sometimes their internecine conflicts. (again, tip ‘o the stetson to Philip Bobbitt, r-e-a-d that book, the Shield of Achilles)

The struggle between civilizations, Western, Arabic, Vedic, Sino, American, and others has to be different. For instance, the strife between Western and Arabic culture extends for over a full millennium, from principalities at war to great empires, through massive constitutional and cultural evolutions (Europe wasn't even Christian for much of the first hundred years of the war, much less sectarian). Almost by definition, the rule sets between civilizations, such as the legal basis underlying the Peace of Westphalia, do not exist in a binding form; there can be no peace until that common ground is founded. Plainly, international law is disappointing in this regard.

Moreover, a cultural war goes both ways, rather spectacularly. America has had a historic affinity to Europe, but it has always been distinct and separate, more aloof than even England, and more distant than even Russia. If the American ‘civilization’ was not in play, Europe would indeed be doomed, because Europe/Russia do not set the rules of the game internationally anymore. But Europe must adapt to the rules of a new world, American, Vedic, or Sino, take your pick, no less than the Arabs must, or else they die. I’d guess that the Europeans, even in aggregate, for all their faults, have a far shorter distance to travel than any single Arab country to even survive in a globalized environment. If it wasn’t for oil, the Middle East would be as hospitable as Africa, but without the charm.

10/31/2005 10:14:00 PM  
Blogger sam said...

Ahmadinejad’s Jihad:

I don’t think “every other option” is credible any more. We must look squarely at what is before us, and not for an excuse to look away.

It should be realized that President Ahmadinejad’s threats -- and his subsequent failure to retract them -- themselves constitute acts of war. The Israelis, at the least, are in a moral and legal position to act in self-defence; and all decent men and women are under a moral obligation to support them.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Commentary/com-10_31_05_DW.html

10/31/2005 10:25:00 PM  
Blogger Vercingetorix said...

sam, for the love of pete, if you are going to spam the blog, please have the courtesy to use the html tags for links.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Commentary/com-10_31_05_DW.html

becomes...

Link

[SHIFT + ,] a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Commentary/com-10_31_05_DW.html"[Shift + .] Link [SHIFT + ,]/a[SHIFT + .]

Note: use the carrots to close html tags, SHIFT + the ',' and '.' keys.

10/31/2005 10:51:00 PM  
Blogger sam said...

Hey, c'mon there Verc. It's not spam. It's all above board, on topic stuff. It's just as easy to copy/paste the link, isn't it?

10/31/2005 10:54:00 PM  
Blogger Vercingetorix said...

nuthin' but love, sam, and I'm not asking you to stop, but it just looks neater, and I might even start reading those articles if I didn't have to, ughh, go through all of the tortuous work of cutting and pasting ;)

10/31/2005 10:58:00 PM  
Blogger sam said...

ok, man. You were starting to give me a complex there for a minute. Wish I had the intellectual horsepower to debate with you guys but alas, I am out of my league. I am learning and retaining from being a part of the 'Club' 'though, if I may be so bold. I will endeavor with the html tags bro'.

10/31/2005 11:08:00 PM  
Blogger Cedarford said...

PeterUK -

I have seen enough of Bush that I know his strategy to refuse to name the enemy then divide the West over a preemptive war to find "vast, hidden stockpiles of WMDs" was anything but brilliant and subtle. Because Bush leads in a most unbrilliant and unsubtle manner.

Even his new gambit to justify Iraq as other than WMD or seizing a geopolitical center, which is based on the Far-right Zionist Anatoly Sharansky - that the noble Islamis just (except for those Palestinians) just need democracy, blessed beautiful democracy to make things all better... That is not panning out. It seems to create more Islamofascism in countries like Turkey, Malaysia, Iran - which hold elections. If Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt held elections tomorrow, radical Islamists would be the ruling party.

Remember how the Bozo and his Stepford wife were saying that liberating the Afghans meant liberating the women from their burquas? Same stuff in Iraq. Most women went bare-headed before the US toppled Saddam. Now they are all "women of cover".

Trangbang68 - Sorry, most people reject the whole Rapture drivel that obsesses Christian Zionists. But the real Zionists find your folk useful tools.

Newts ideas will have to await the next President. I'm afraid this one is locked into "stay the course", open borders, a Religion of Peace hijacked by an teeny tiny minority of "evildoers", and celebrating "women of cover" at Ramadan time. He has defined the struggle in a certain way, and said we are winning...the stuff every 3 months about how Al Qaeda is closer to being wrapped up, how the "dead-enders" are defeated more each day.

Admitting he was a dupe of the neocons and admitting he put too much emphasis on the military and too little on involving the American public - doing any of that would be admitting he made huge mistakes.

So his strategy is more tax cuts for the wealthy, more gov't spending for "heroes" who defend us from evildoers or hurricanes (not so effectively we see), encourage folks to slap yellow magnetic tape on their cars as doing their bit - and ignore crash programs to get translators, work on energy independence, or bring the modern world together diplomatically behind an America trusted not to do Zionism's bidding.

Even if Bush was so inclined, the momentum of his past screwups would make reversal difficult. It will require a presidential leadership change before we can seriously address Islamofascism, the rise of China, and the collapse of Bush-style crony capitalism in Latin America and Russia.

10/31/2005 11:11:00 PM  
Blogger Marlin said...

There's an interesting article abot bin Laden and Al Qaeda in the Daily Telegraph today. It includes the following quote from bin Laden that I believe makes clear that he also believes this is a Long War that is being engaged.
**************************
The problem for western counter-terrorist officials is that regardless of what happens to bin Laden, Zawahiri or Zarqawi, it may now be impossible to eradicate their ideology.

"The virus of al-Qa'eda is already out there in the population," said one security source.

Or, as bin Laden once put it:"This will be nothing to do with the poor slave bin Laden, whether dead or alive. With God's grace, the awakening has begun."
***********************

What's become of bin Laden since he gave us all the slip?

11/01/2005 12:27:00 AM  
Blogger gumshoe1 said...

"Mr Kerry,please pick up line 1"

11/01/2005 12:29:00 AM  
Blogger gumshoe1 said...

"The virus of al-Qa'eda is already out there in the population," said one security source.

Or, as bin Laden once put it:"This will be nothing to do with the poor slave bin Laden, whether dead or alive. With God's grace, the awakening has begun."

-Marlin
__________________________

OBL was simply following
the script of the Koran.

Islam *is* the virus.

OBL says:
"...the awakening has begun."

or as i believe Daniel Pipes
put it:

"Education by murder"

11/01/2005 01:18:00 AM  
Blogger Peter UK said...

Do you have a strategy C4,if so what is it,there is nothing in your post to indicate that you have one?

11/01/2005 02:13:00 AM  
Blogger raymondshaw said...

A centuries long long war? Call me skeptical. The energy resources that have made it possible for the Islamists to even contemplate doing battle with the west will be long gone before even the first century has passed. And it is not like the Islamists are known for 'investing for the future.'

By roughly the end of the 1st quarter-century of this millenium, oil will have peaked as the primary energy source, particularly for transportation fuels. By mid-century, natural gas will peak. From there on, it will be a downhill slide, initially in favor of hydrogen, then other sources such as wind, solar, fision/fusion & what-not. Once the paymaster closes his window for the last time, they will be done.

So in 50 years, let them try and sell their sand. Nobody will be interested.

11/01/2005 02:54:00 AM  
Blogger diabeticfriendly said...

c4 zionist count... only 3 "zionist" rants today...

beats yesterday's 10 zionists, 1 israeli backstabbing, 1 israeli pariah, 1 jew mass murder plot, 1 jew land grabbing plot...

wow, it's a trend...

11/01/2005 03:17:00 AM  
Blogger diabeticfriendly said...

opps forgot the 1 israeli masterspy and 1 jew money controlling freak from yesterday's tally...we

11/01/2005 03:18:00 AM  
Blogger Cedarford said...

Pork rinds - Laugh all you want. It looks like the Iranians are preparing for the last laugh down the road. More and more Americans are backing off unquestioning support of Israel.

PeterUK -

I see you are a little dense. I endorsed Gingrich's plan, said that Bush lacked the capacity to impliment it because he lacks the will and ability to fix his flawed strategy or admit to major mistakes, so you say that's no plan. That's dense of you.

We have 3 more years of "stay the course", unless another major attack rings Bush's bell and forces him to address matters. But I think Gingrich's plan will basically await the next President. That could even be Gingrich if he dispells his big negatives.

11/01/2005 03:34:00 AM  
Blogger Heraclitus said...

The present struggle for the West resembles little the Reformation (the inherent anti-Cathoilicism of the Reformation coupled with the anti-Gothic of the so-called Enlightenment forms the basis of the dogma of Darwinism-Marxism which is essentially nihilistic negativism), rather the struggle before the West very much resembles that of Rome after the assassinations of the Gracchi leading to the period known as the Social Wars.

For Rome, the time of the Social Wars represented both an internal struggle as well as an external struggle chiefly characterized by the Mithridatic Wars.

I am just now finishing up Yakovlev’s “A Century of Violence in Soviet Russia”. The internal devastation and rot caused by Darwinism-Marxism beggars belief. For the U.S., the illusion that there exists a degree of immunity from the disease of Darwinism-Marxism may well prove fatal in regards to winning the Social Wars. In fact, the opposite is true, Darwinism-Marxism has triumphed in the heart of free enterprise and individual initiative.

The internal struggle in the West at present is merely but the phase of mopping up the final centers of resistance.

In regards to the outer struggle, one wonders how a Muslim squares the assertion that the Muslim religion is essentially "peaceful" with the historical reality that within 100 years or so of it's founding it's violent expansion took it to Southern Europe (after the conquest of Spain) and to the East, to the heart of the Indian subcontinent and beyond.

The bulk of conversion was carried out at the point of a sword rather than through gentle philosophical discussions as to the relative merits of it's belief system. Reality is that the Arabs of the Arabian peninsula were first and foremost nomadic warriors and the preaching of Mohammed suited their tastes perfectly. The "peace" preached was internal peace so as to direct and focus outward expansion.

Conversely, Paul's Christianity was preached to the worn-out masses of the dying Roman world cities whose exhausted populaces desired nothing more than peace so as to enjoy their daily bread and circus. Today, the West has Darwinism-Marxism, the Welfare State and enough mass entertainment.

I well remember the official propaganda in the early 1980's on radio Moscow with it's relentless "all we want is peace" campaign.

Today, one can't help but wonder whether the West retains the capacity to direct it's destiny or rather if it is soon simply to be the battleground for warring factions of those from without much as Egypt during the Hykosis period or China under the Mongols.

In every time of crisis Rome was always able, despite the gravest defeats and internal divisions, to reach within itself and summon forth a determination to triumph over adversity. In viewing the current political landscape in the West, one would be hard pressed to have any hope whatsoever that such will be the case.

11/01/2005 04:02:00 AM  
Blogger diabeticfriendly said...

c4: Pork rinds - Laugh all you want. It looks like the Iranians are preparing for the last laugh down the road. More and more Americans are backing off unquestioning support of Israel.

actually i see iran having a really bad day, not because of zionists, but because their own people are getting fed up, as for american and support of israel, i see it growing, israel showed it's face by withdrawling from gaza and the northern west bank, WITHOUT ANY PEACE TREATY and your friends the pali's showed theirs when the looted the greenhouses, burned the temples and launched hundreds of missiles from gaza and proclaimed their military victory...

no c4, the tide is turning, the world sees the islamofasict crap the jews/israel/zionists have been dealing with since 1920, so cram you bullshit about those poor palis and their refugees, please learn that more jews were thrown out of more land and businesses than any pali were, israel has MORE diplomatic relations now than at anytime in the world, the UN is NOW passing resolution against syria, the face of "palestine" WAS all over those airplanes when then slammed into the world trade center... the face of palestine is all over the war on terror...

nope the winds of change are here, and the issue aint 20 square miles of land the big bad land grabbing jews control....

every time an american fills up a car they dont think west bank... they think arab oil/opec/oil companies too bad c4, your battle is lost and no zionists had to die ha ha...

the world is most hurt by higher oil prices, the poor of the world are hurt by the arabs, not the zionists... h aha ha haha ha ha ha ha ha ha ah ahah

hey c4, it aint the zionists you will be paying this winter! ah ha ah ah hah a haha ha ha ha ha

11/01/2005 04:17:00 AM  
Blogger EddieP said...

I think Newt is correct. At this point if you examine the totality of the struggle with the Islamofascists, it is not more than 10% military.

Sam, isn't it pretty obvious that Bin Laden is dead or incapacitated? Zawahiri has been driving the AQ bandwagon for a couple of years.

C4's snark continues to be tiresome.

11/01/2005 04:46:00 AM  
Blogger Peter UK said...

Seedy Fudd,
Gingrich,must be ecstatic that you endorse his plan,it must be a great relief to him,he would have been devastated if one of the great seminal thinkers in the world of technical handbooks had disapproved.
Couple of problems,it is not your plan,as I said you don't have one,and two like all plans nobody knows if,since it is never likely to be implemented, it will work or not.
So lets have chapter and verse of the Seedy Fudd Plan,you can omit the sction on Israel ,I think we have all picked up on that,but please give us the benefit of your vast geopolitical experience.
What would you do,in the light of present circumstances,start with the here and now,not the been and gone.

11/01/2005 05:37:00 AM  
Blogger al fin said...

Peak oil will not end the jihad. The jihad is eternal. It will merely go looking for any funding it can find. Fraud, bank robbery, a tax on the haj, kidnapping and ransom, "charitable" donations from emigrants . . .

As for bin Laden, you might need a good medium to seek him in a seance. The CIA could not find a pimple on its own arse.

11/01/2005 05:40:00 AM  
Blogger erp said...

Gingrich is a smart well educated and well spoken guy who could have been a real force for good, but he shot himself in the "foot" by carrying on an office romance and then denying it during the period when he was also denouncing Clinton's morals.

It's a good thing, isn't it, that men aren't at the mercy of their hormones the way women are alleged to be?

11/01/2005 05:50:00 AM  
Blogger desert rat said...

eddiep
It is not all that obvious that the "most wanted man in the world" is either dead or incapacitiated.
The Doctor has always been the main man behind the throne of aQ. He was the driving force in the creation of aQ, but not the Headliner, in the MSM.
Osama may be an active leader, he may be flat on his back or six feet under.
I watched a news show the other day, from Ohio, I think, white Amerikan Nazis were praising Hitler and White Power. And all this time I thought Hitler died in a Berlin bunker. It seems he is still alive and well within US.
Osama will prove as resilent as Hitler or Che.
Without his head on a stake there is immortality for Osama.

11/01/2005 06:23:00 AM  
Blogger Vercingetorix said...

Raymondshaw,
A centuries long long war? Call me skeptical.
Don’t be. Wars are frequent and often serial (the First and Second Gulf Wars, for just one instance), but when viewed at a distance, we see that even as singular battles define a war, several wars often define an epochal war, like everything from the Hungary to Korea to Vietnam to Afghanistan and Grenada being a part of the half century Cold War (or 60 year ‘Long War’ as to my wont above).
If the question were just of large numbers of states, part of a monolithic universal ‘civilization,’ it would be possible to defeat each state, one by one and set our terms. As we see in the Middle East after colonialism, those terms did not hold in perpetuity, nor after the first Gulf War were they upheld. Legally, if the source of all your laws is one man, or family, bound only by religion, well, duh, they will not respect any strictures from foreigners for very long. So if there is no plausible legal settlement to war, by definition, merely defeating the states serially or en masse, will not end the war. What will end it is by changing the very foundations of the other civilization, and hence the current agony over Europe’s death rate and Arab interpenetration of Europe and demographic growth.

Either Europe acculturates its muslims and the foundations of Western civ. extend into Arab lands, or Europe itself is colonized, pan-Arabia muddles through. And this particular Epochal war has been going on for at least a generation now, if not the past 50.

11/01/2005 06:52:00 AM  
Blogger Jeff said...

Russia is indeed facing some serious problems. We can only hope the decline is managed well, and that chaos does not arise as Russian society starts to feel the effects of its demographic problems.

11/01/2005 07:05:00 AM  
Blogger Peter UK said...

This conflict began for Europe over a thousand years ago,it is nothing new,technological advancement kept Europe ahead.It is only with the rise of the left we have begun to lose.

11/01/2005 07:22:00 AM  
Blogger desert rat said...

Russia will lash out, I think, as she falls. Exampled by their current difficulties with some of their Mohammedan subjects. Both in Mother Russia and her newly independent "Stans". There is no hesitency to shoot demonstrators or to raze entire cities.
Truth be known, in the decade that the CIA estimates it will take for the Iranians to build a bomb, the Russians still and will continue to be a greater threat to liberty tempered with stability than any other Nation State.
With a history of International meddling and ruled by the management of the former KGB, Russia must act or die. Do not look for the Russians to go quietly into the night.


On a related note here is a piece from WSJ online about Russian nuclear security and the "truth" about Suitcase nukes.

11/01/2005 07:25:00 AM  
Blogger desert rat said...

peter uk
The battle really began when Cro-Magnon man got his ass kicked by Homo Sapiens, in the south of France or Gaul, not sure which name to use any more, HBO's 'ROME' being all the rage at my house.

Conflict is eternal, at least here on Earth.

11/01/2005 07:33:00 AM  
Blogger Marcus Aurelius said...

President Bush's plan is Newt's plan and Newt's plan is President Bush's.

President Bush is willing to stand up on behalf of the West when others are not. Liberal governance is best and yes Iraq is not a full fledged liberal democracy with the Vagina Monologues playing in the playhouses of Basra but it is much better than what was before and what passes as normal in the Middle East.

The Cold War was not won by the unconfident by those unwilling to gamble. It was won by the bold who were willing to push back. Radical Islam has been pushing and pushing and we have finally decided to push back.

The typical Bush critic is not a defender of the West but a detractor. The problem is we have significant numbers of people here in the West who decry our sexism but then turn a blind eye to the Taliban, Al Qaeda et al and actively support the forces of Islamic radicalism.

11/01/2005 07:44:00 AM  
Blogger Aristides said...

My take on the Long War is here. It is, itself, rather long, for any who are interested.

11/01/2005 08:05:00 AM  
Blogger Tulkinghorn said...

The typical Bush critic is not a defender of the West but a detractor. The problem is we have significant numbers of people here in the West who decry our sexism but then turn a blind eye to the Taliban, Al Qaeda et al and actively support the forces of Islamic radicalism.

Do you actually talk to any bush opponents, or do you just listen to right-wing echo-room characterizations of them? There are a great many people who disagree with of oppose Bush who are neither leftists nor kooks.

If you think that everyone critical of this administration thinks like Ward Churchill you are deeply mistaken.

11/01/2005 08:36:00 AM  
Blogger fooburger said...

I think this is mainly fuzzy confusing crap. Nothing in this essay involves anything actionable at all. "This war is going to be fought in the thoughts of people!"
Great... so we're all going to become psychologists, because that's our new 'weapon'?
This is crap. The struggle against militant islam has propoganda elements much like all previous wars. But the majority of the hard work is going to be done in the field by US military forces of one sort or another. This doesn't represent some miniscule 10% of the war.
We are going to have to drive out dictatorships around the world, and once that has happened, peace will be possible.

Normally Belmont posts are much clearer and state real opinions, whereas this appears to retreat into the classroom and question everything without attempting to resolve any answers.

11/01/2005 09:04:00 AM  
Blogger The Wobbly Guy said...

Ideas are important because the military force of democratic nations require the support of their own people if they are to succeed. In a conflict such as this, likely to last decades, that is especially crucial.

Wars, particularly conflicts in the modern age, are all waged in the name of one '-ism' or another.

If the US military is not supported by the majority of the US populace, how lethal they are in the field will not matter. Hence the importance of understanding that the real battle is still fought for hearts and minds, not just of the people of the 'other side', but of one's own. A voting majority that believes in the UN, the Democrats, internationalism, pacifism, socialism, and a panacea of delusions will cripple any military force.

11/01/2005 09:15:00 AM  
Blogger Aristides said...

Fooburger laments the lack of answers. It does not then follow that the questions are unworthy.

The decision to blow yourself up for Allah and 72 virgins is consummated in the mind. Why should you reject the logical corollary that the decision not to blow yourself is consummated there, too. It is a binary decision with vast underpinnings. It seems rather obvious that one of these options is more beneficial and therefore its likelihood should be bolstered.

The battle is in the mind because that is where you find the will, and the inclination, to commit murder. You must ask the right questions if you are ever to get the right answers. In that respect, Wretchard's essay is, as always, both timely and...significant.

11/01/2005 09:19:00 AM  
Blogger Cutler said...

"I’d guess that the Europeans, even in aggregate, for all their faults, have a far shorter distance to travel than any single Arab country to even survive in a globalized environment. If it wasn’t for oil, the Middle East would be as hospitable as Africa, but without the charm."

Agreement, and why I don't buy the EUrabia concept. I'd wager that in 50-100 years, Europe will still survive, it will just be radically different. The fall from Kantian utopia to reality will be both jarring and transformational.

11/01/2005 09:35:00 AM  
Blogger desert rat said...

The mind, aristides, is also where we find the will to resist tyrants and despots. To relish personal freedom and liberty and wish to extend it others, for the betterment of all.
The power of the mind and the perspection of it's own realities, both as individuals and communities is where wars are won.
Ask any Super Duper Paratrooper or Devil Dog Marine.
The fight must be exported to the minds of the opponents people. The civilian hearts and minds in Uzbeckistan or Pakistan, etc.

Personal Freedom tempered by Responsibility, that should be a marketable program, even within Mohammedan Societies.

11/01/2005 09:43:00 AM  
Blogger Vercingetorix said...

Fooburger is absolutely right, if a bit lamentably dismissive of the discussion at large. We can win the debates, but if we don’t win the elections, we lose. If we win the elections, we lose if the laws we pass are insufficient to our needs and ambitions. In other words, this epochal or civilization-epochal war we are describing is supported by intellectual discussion, but unless we back philosophy with law and more importantly force, our great odes-in-electrons are simply dead letters.

But if that’s the case, the reverse is applicable as well. Demographics inspires dread for Russia’s future and some case in the West at large, not because of any persuasiveness of militant Islam alone, but because relative growth rates (esp. in democracies) can win without even a struggle taking place, by assuming the majority naturally. It is the concrete factors that inspire or punish us much more than mere intellect.

Europe for one cannot continue into the future in her present form. Either the EU must become a force or be disbanded on the continent, her markets opened or ruined, her defense funded or the wars of her former colonials brought inside her own cathedrals. It pays to remember that evidence often settles debates and the Cold War settled a great many of Europe’s though they have yet to digest all of them.

11/01/2005 10:15:00 AM  
Blogger gmat said...

In looking at the long war, it's useful also to consider that the muslim world is facing it's own depopulation crisis, even though the CW has it that they are breeding like rabbits vs., say, europeans.

With a trend of declining birth rates that correleates strongly with literacy, especially female literacy, the muslim population growth rate, currently >2%, will drop to 0.5% by 2050.

Iran, eg, faces the same kind of aging population problems that we see coming in the west, but theirs are much worse, due to much less slack in per capita GDP. By 2050 Iran will be rapidly closing in on the US in elderly dependent population percentage (US 34 v. Iran 28).

Meanwhile the US birth rate has levelled off at replacement levels, led by the strong showing of the evangelicals (incl LDS), who will be a numerical majority in a generation.

11/01/2005 10:40:00 AM  
Blogger Vercingetorix said...

Heraclitus, many disturbing points. I’ll play the devil’s advocate, of course.

For one, the Italian cities of the peninsula were bound to Rome by a much stronger, more binding alliance than the US binds NATO. In fact, NATO is laughably the inverse of Rome’s hold; we’ve invoked NATO’s provisions only once and NATO has consolidated only twice for war (Iraq I and tending the corpse of Yugoslavia), though several times for peacekeeping. Italian troops were the very stuff of Roman armies, at least half of the levy (Roman legions were 5000 Romans and 5000 allies, though this is also the time of Marius when the Roman army is transformed to its imperial state). And again I would make a point at differentiating North America from Europe as much as I would of South America from both, though obviously the Latin influence is so dominant.

I would also doubt that the intellectual battle for the soul of the west has been won decisively for any camp. For one, there are a breathtaking number of camps, even in European governance, such as Mediterrean, Scandinavian, Anglo-Saxon, Central and Eastern European. For another, even if a dramatic victory was won, at least in Europe, globalization will still force a choice just as the Big Three Automakers now have to choose between their old model and a newer, more competitive model. And a blank statement of a victory of one ideology over another neatly contradicts the received wisdom here in the US of Red vs. Blue.

11/01/2005 10:55:00 AM  
Blogger Papa Bear said...

Sam: bin Ladin is irrelevant. He's just middle-management/PR

The real threat, the Board of Directors of al Q, is the Golden Chain. They are the money men who keep al-Q financed. As long as they are untouchable, they will recruit and finance an endless stream of Osamas to send out at us

11/01/2005 10:59:00 AM  
Blogger diabeticfriendly said...

fooburger states:

Great... so we're all going to become psychologists, because that's our new 'weapon'?
This is crap.

actually no, i, as a "zionist" do believe, in the power that c4 & the islamic world has granted me shall then place sexy nippled pagan wenches infront of the blessed, modest moslem people, thus, tormenting them to destruction. Girls Gone Wild, Porno, Jerry Springler, Al Goldstein & Howard Stern (all zionist generals) will thru the power of that jew creation (the "book") shall use the tools of the modern day, the internet, to destroy islam from within...

if you think i am joking, I aint, and all I can say is....



to f*ckin bad islam.....

11/01/2005 11:23:00 AM  
Blogger Sparks fly said...

Fairness is just another name for the law. The letter of the law kills but the spirit gives life.

The problem with discovering or rediscovering yourself is threefold: you can't stop throwing up or shaking with fear or being depressed.

You must be b... again.

11/01/2005 11:34:00 AM  
Blogger ledger said...

Newt Gingrich does makes some very important points (although he uses criticism in a scatter gun fashion). He does define the enemy better as the "Irreconcilable Wing Of Islam." That's fairly precise but not exact. And, he notes that this Irreconcilable Wing Of Islam (or IWOI) knows no boarders - true. He also calls it a long war. Which is probably correct. But, most wars go on longer than expected.

Gingrich is very critical of the CIA and other Intelligence organization. He notes that during the 50 years of the being engaged with Korea "Only 10% of our analysts are fluent in Korean... Sixty-five percent of the analysts are unable to order food in a Korean restaurant or ask for directions to the rest room. Yet these are the people we depend on to plumb the depths of North Korean psychology..."

He has a point. And, this same problem is apparent in our inability to analyze the Islamofascist plotting against us. I would guess that Arabic is just as difficult to learn as Korean (or Mandarin for that matter). The IWOI has used Arabic as a natural encryption mechanism - simple but effective. Thus, I agree with Gringrich that there should be some mandatory level of language proficiency in the CIA.

This is easy to say but not so easily done. It takes much more than 63 weeks of intense lingual training to learn such a language to the point of deciphering technical jargon, slang, and code words. There must be a strong curriculum and a strong incentive to learn those languages.

Generally, it's a good idea to lead by example. So, some of the higher rank CIA people should study a language and project that down to their subordinates.

Another of Gingrich's points is that intelligence personnel must be versed in the "Money" trail aspect of the IWOI. I suspect this would involve a thorough knowledge of Arabic banking and accounting methods. This is difficult. Very few people are interesting in learning Eastern accounting and banking. But, that's not to say it should not be done. And, I don't really believe that the fundamentals of banking and money transfers are much different between East and the West. I do understand the Muslims don't use "interest" but do use a fee based system. That is not all that different from western banking. I suspect that we have not clamped down on money transfers from so called "charities" for PC reasons.

In Gingrich's 25 recommendations, he recommends greater Agency flexibility to "turn" drug smugglers or other "Grey Area" individuals into states witness at the very lowest level of the Agency. That's a good idea - but, harder to do than suggested. There could be a bargains with the devil that would be counter productive. But, the idea is basically sound. His twenty-five points makes sense, but I would go farther.

Here some ideas to crack down on the IWOI:

1) Stop using the soft glove treatment on them. If a known propagator of murder is to be released in Indonesia by some crooked judge then surgically take this terrorist out (let it be known that dangerous individuals should not be released to kill once more). Track all of his family members and let it be know there are consequences to supporting that individual in any fashion.

2) Use reciprocal tactics on the IWOI. If a "Clerics" kills people they should be killed. Strip away the stupid idea that "clerics" are members of a religion. They are not. They are killers using religion as a cover. The KKK had strong religious slogans but, that did not stop the Authorities from investigating them. Certain laws will have to be adjusted - but that can occur. If an individual dressed in a turban and a robe insights murder he's a killer and should be neutralized. It's important for "clerics" to understand that their own personal safety is not guaranteed. If "cleric" issues a death threats of any sort, he should be designated a target. For example, if some "cleric" issues a death threat in Pakistan, he should be considered very dangerous and surgically neutralized.

3) The MSM should not be use as a tool of transmitting orders or instilling terror. If the enemy, uses the media as a means of transferring orders than said media outlet should be investigated and sanctioned. At the least we should be able to issue counter propaganda via the MSM.

4) The treason laws should be updated to reflect the new threat. Anyone aiding the enemy should be sanctioned. Some, will scream the 1st amendment has been violated - too bad times have changed. If one gives aid and comfort to the enemy then one should be considered joining with the enemy (and treason/sedition laws should be invoked). Law makers should have some introspection as to their own public statements and the long term consequences of said public statements. Law makers should not take "donations" from the enemy or aid the enemy in any way.

5) If the enemy is using a mosque as terrorists training building or a weapons stockpiling point then said building should be investigated and/or targeted. There are just too many Mosque which house terrorists. The notion of religious freedom should not be misused. Once a mosque has become a point for inciting violence then it's no longer a religious place.

Granted not all of these ideas are perfect nor are some of Gingrich's. And, some may not be practical at this point. But, they deserve some consideration. If there are specific adjustments to the Gingrich's ideas and the above ideas, speak up.

11/01/2005 11:50:00 AM  
Blogger peggy said...

"It may be that Gingrich's Long War is less about fighting Muslims than about the West rediscovering itself. While it's apparent battlefields may be in the mountains, jungles and desert fastnesses, the only frontier that matters is in its own heart"

this is in a nutshell what I have been trying to say more or less successfully for a long time using way more words.

The West needs to get its house in order. That, and only that, is how we will turn back the passle of bad ideas that is islam. All the rest of what is going on is just buying us time. If we dont get that house in order, all the rest will have been in vain.

I think the first thing we should do is reexamine the faiths that dominated our culture for so long which is responsible for so much of who we are today. Christianity and to a sizable extent, Judaism, got us to where we are fat, safe and prosperous. Then as soon as we were sure that we wouldnt go back to the bad old days that these faith saw us through, we by and large discarded them like yesterdays news.

Now we suffer existenially in the midst of plenty. We are unsatisfied by things which cannot satisfy. And now people blame our foundational faiths for not being more forceful and more like islam blaming them for not enforcing faith the way islam does. Many are succumbing to that fatal attraction of mankind and gravitating to what seems like the strongman of the moment. But we must realize that strongmen are never as good in the long run as they seem initially. We must realize that this attraction to the strongest at any given moment is a flaw in our make-up which must be resisted.

The first thing we need to do is to clear our eyes and regain some perspective and realize that the church is not to blame for our current supine state, we are. We need to rediscover what it is about The Christian/Jewish combo that led to our success in the first place and readopt it in strength and to have pride in its accomplishments.

The next step is to appreciate how these faiths are the fecund soil of many of the best ideas mankind has ever had and the true ark of the best ideas of antiquity primarily the best ideas of Rome and Greece. These faiths are not only our future as a civilization they also connect us profoundly to our past in a way that islam was never able to and wont ever be able to. It was islam that did little with the treasures of the ancient world other than preserve them. They had these treasures for centuries and the result was nothing more than some learned discussion and philosophizing. But when these ideas were back in the hands of their true heirs in the West, the result was everything that we now know. A literal explosion of epochal advances in science and society.

Lose the faiths, lose everything. Atheism and agnosticism are the luxuries of our time that are really killing us. We can't afford so many turning their noses up at where we come from. Our religious/cultural heritage is a miracle, a real one with practical advantages to our life here on earth and for the good of all the world because it offers liberty and the right of all to choose freely with the least and only most neccesary interference. This leaves a mess but better a mess and liberty than the whited sepulchre of islam where liberty is strictly prescibed but the mess and the filth just goes underground where the light cannot reach it. We need to feel pride in the openess, honesty and yes, messiness of our society and be willing to defend it with every ounce of passion and power that we have in us.

We cannot fail to realize that not all worldviews are equal and ideas are not all harmless enrichment. Ideas can be deadly and they can destroy. We must reject any idea that promises a "whiter" world quickly realized with aggressive zeal in exchange for less liberty. That is what islam is offering to the most vulnerable among us. We would be crazy to admit this idea which is the opposite of our own way. It is a case of matter and anti matter, of liberty verses exhaustive religious dictation in all areas of life. The stakes are really that high. We face the end of all that we know and the beginning of religion making many if not most of our decisions for us.

11/01/2005 12:50:00 PM  
Blogger tefta said...

Tulkinghorn - Surely you jest? We get leftwing propaganda 24/7 from the media, the arts, the academy, the public school unions and on and on.

Conservative talk radio came into existence to set the record straight and get some facts on the table and to give a voice to people who thought they were alone in objecting to what they were getting from the media.

The criticism of Bush is irrational. There's no place for reasoned discourse in BDS country.

11/01/2005 01:14:00 PM  
Blogger Heraclitus said...

NATO was founded foremost as a political instrument to circumvent the stranglehold on Western action as a result of the Russian Security Council veto.

The West was put in this ridiculous position in the first place by the Baruch plan to establish a World Government under the auspices of the UN.

After playing the fools that passed for leadership in the West, notably at Tehran and Yalta, for everything they were worth, Stalin of course, rejected suborning his power to these idiots in 1946.

This was the start of the Cold War, not Churchill's Fulton speach, which the West then proceeded to steadily lose, starting with China, in spectacular fashion despite every advantage with the signal exception of being saddled with idiots for its leadership.

11/01/2005 01:34:00 PM  
Blogger Strabo the Lesser said...

I agree with those who compare Europe's situation to the Roman Empire, but I would suggest the late empire rather than the social wars. The romans invited the barbarians to live within our borders, with higher rates of reproduction, while stifling economic growth with high taxes... the population hollowed out, the law became corrupt, and the Avars pressed on the borders.

11/01/2005 01:34:00 PM  
Blogger diabeticfriendly said...

where does opium come from?

11/01/2005 01:53:00 PM  
Blogger Cedarford said...

Ledger -

Long thoughtful post that shows there's more to your thinking than your belief "vast, hidden stockpiles of Iraqi WMDs" are buried in Lebanon and Syria but somehow mysteriously unavailable for terrorist use.

Your links and description of Gingrich's ideas and proposals was very good. Note in there a key thing being absent - not a word about the US military being used to raise the noble Muslims to the purple-fingered bliss of Sharansky democracy as a means of fighting this Long War. Instead, he predicts that Islamoids will present us with the same scenario as Elizabethan England faced - citizens who grew up in our culture but are traitors who wish to destroy us.

As noted, Bush-Sharansky democracy as the ultimate cure-all salve is not changing Muslmin hearts and minds in Rotterdam, Marseilles, Finsbury Park, or in rapidly Islamizing Turkey.

I liked your thoughts on treason and sedition. It would have been a huge wakeup call to Democrats otherwise loyal to America if the Senate had censored Dick Durbin for seditious comment. Ward Churchill would be a fine candidate to be removed from a taxpayer-funded job as a disloyal America who engages in petty treason. We need laws refining treason into degrees - grand treasons, and petty treasons - the way we refine degrees of murder and rape. And you are right, there is no such thing as an absolutely free press. We censored the press in the Civil War, WWI, and WWII.

But those things won't happen without another major terrorist attack and lots of blood spilled. America is bogged down by inertia and lack of creative thinking in it's leadership. Only blood will make them respond.

And, sorry, but "surgically eliminating" Muslim mullahs in foreign countries would work until a snuff team was caught and America was found to be doing the assassinations. If we are at war, fine, guys like Mohammed Sadr should have been capped. Better to say that we now understand the enemy is far more than Bush's "evildoers" who actually do the terrorism tactics - and countries that permit their preachers and politicians to urge killings of Americans or citizens of nations we have defense treaties with BECOME our enemies if they don't clamp down incitment to murder us.

11/01/2005 02:37:00 PM  
Blogger Charles said...

The problem in such a struggle is defining "we". Who "you" were was the essential question in the Reformation; and much depended on the answer. The bitterness with which it divided Tudor England is still remembered in the following account.

Queen Mary I of England is called Bloody Mary because she persecuted Protestants during her short reign (1554-58). Her sister, Elizabeth Tudor, persecuted Catholics during her long reign (1558-1603) and she is called Good Queen Bess. Mary is criticized because she burned Protestants whom she considered heretics, but Elizabeth is praised as shrewd for persecuting Catholics, who did not accept laws passed during her reign making her both secular and spiritual ruler. Violations of these laws were considered an act of treason punishable by hanging, drawing, and quartering.
/////////////////

A helpful thing to understand in Europe is that the "political" wings of the reformation--the calvinists--were defeated in France when they overplayed their hand and in 1572 were killed in the St. Bartholemew's Day Massecre. As well, in England the calvinists under Cromwell also overplayed their hand and calvinism went into decline subsequently in England.

However, Calvinism got a second life in the USA with the Puritans--who were congregationalists--, and the presbyterians (mostly scotch irish).
//////

Joseph Galloway (1731-1803), a former speaker of the Pennsylvania Assembly and close friend of Benjamin Franklin, opposed the Revolution and fled to England in 1778. Like many Tories he believed, as he asserted in this pamphlet, that the Revolution was, to a considerable extent, a religious quarrel, caused by Presbyterians and Congregationalists whose "principles of religion and polity [were] equally averse to those of the established Church and Government."

http://www.loc.gov/exhibits/religion/rel03.html

/////////////////////////

Is this Galloway related to the current generation's Galloway. Likely not. The principle's of Government to which the ancestor referred are covenential and calvinist.

11/01/2005 02:58:00 PM  
Blogger Charles said...

On the level of pure industry, the 20th century industries are dying and and whole bunch of new players are coming in to take their place. Basically an old civilization is dying and a new one is taking its place.

If you've every seen those pictures in the late 19th century when within a short decade, city scapes around the world were entirely changed. In one picture there would be streets filled with horses and buggies. In the next picture the same street would be filled with cars;telephone and electrical wires would run over head;

we're going through a similiar process with a whole new set of winners and losers.

11/01/2005 03:08:00 PM  
Blogger RWGR said...

It was mentioned that 'the long war' scenario outlined by Newt Gingrich was a signal to the end of The Treaty (or Peace) of Westphalia. Indeed, September 11th, 2001, ushered in westphalia's death.

11/01/2005 03:17:00 PM  
Blogger StoutFellow said...

Did Gingrich offer any suggestions for dealing with the Irreconcilable Party of the US Congress ?

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Senate returned to its daily work late Tuesday after Democrats enacted a rare parliamentary rule forcing a private session (search) of the chamber so senators could speak in secret about the lead-up to the war in Iraq

Democrats say the demand for a closed session was prompted by "misinformation and disinformation" given by President Bush (search) and his administration prior to entry into the war in Iraq and a failure of Republicans to look into it.

"If the administration had all the information that they have now back then, they wouldn't even have brought it to the Congress for a vote," Reid said of the Senate's 2002 consent to launch a war against Iraq.

"We know that there were no [weapons of mass destruction] now in Iraq. We didn't know it at the time. We know now that we didn't know at the time that there was no Al Qaeda connection. We know now that we didn't know then that there was no 9/11 connection. We know now that they had no plan for winning the peace. We didn't know that at the time," Reid, D-Nev., told reporters after the closed session ended.


The Democrats are beneath contempt. Disloyal opposition does not adequately describe their actions.

So much for the Long War.

11/01/2005 04:54:00 PM  
Blogger Heraclitus said...

In terms of the present struggle, it would be quite educational to understand why it took 40 years for the United States, Western Europe and Japan to defeat the Evil Empire.

Think of it, an evil entity which had butchered humans on a scale not known since the Mongols, rife with internal dissension and rebellion and yet it took 45 years for the much stronger democracies to prevail!

How was it possible for the Cold War to last 45 years in spite of the fact that nearly every inmate in that vast, plodding bureaucratic Gulag WHICH COULD NOT EVEN FEED ITSELF, wished for it to perish?

11/01/2005 05:22:00 PM  
Blogger deeds not fap said...

someone may have mentioned this already but the formalized "correction" or change of westphalian ideas happened somewhat obscurely with UNSC RESOLUTION 1244 (1999).

http://www.un.org/Docs/scres/1999/sc99.htm

of course that was only the beginning and isnt the first bit of evidence of this "end of an era" but many EU and UN policy types wrote (prior to 9/11 of course) about post-westphalian adaptation as if they were the new and obvious status quo. They point to not only the intervention in Kosovo but also setting up new "UN trusteeship governments" in somalia and cambodia as examples of what is basically a new norm. But then along came W and perhaps he wasn't permitted to be so erudite. When he invoked this same norm, it became insanity to some. Go figure.

11/01/2005 05:32:00 PM  
Blogger Cedarford said...

Heraclitus - How was it possible for the Cold War to last 45 years in spite of the fact that nearly every inmate in that vast, plodding bureaucratic Gulag WHICH COULD NOT EVEN FEED ITSELF, wished for it to perish?

Simple. The Rosenburgs giving the enemy the A Bomb and Lefty control of the MSM.

11/01/2005 05:57:00 PM  
Blogger Karridine said...

"My only thoughts are that Gingrich's Long War is a consequence of a larger phenomenon, the end of the European era."

Could it be a consequence of a LARGER phenomenon? Could it be the consequence of events foretold by Jesus of Nazareth (Matt 24:14, Luke 21:24, Matt 24:15) promising the Coming of the Promised One?

For to argue that the Holy One has NOT come is to engage in the 'damnable heresy' of 'scoffing and denying' our Lord Who redeems us has returned.

Such an argument can only be true IF Jesus a)chose the wrong words to describe the second coming; b)didn't know His words would all come true in the same year; c)didn't WANT us to turn in adoration to the One Who came May 23, 1844; or if Jesus is NOT the Truth-Telling, the All-Informed.

Far larger than the 'end of the European era', these global disturbances CAN BE SEEN as evidence of humankind's adjustment to a new way of being, called to unify ourselves -hearts and minds- before the One True Creator, we are judged as we turn TOWARD unity, light, honesty, self-determination and responsible rationality OR turn AWAY into secularism, hatred, racism, materialism and nationalism.

I suggest that today's violent responses are all united in their non-obedience to and ignorance of the unifying and enlightening teachings given us by the Glory of God.

11/01/2005 06:30:00 PM  
Blogger trangbang68 said...

Cedarford,
I don't know why I'm replying as we obviously don't speak the same language,but why not?You replied to my earlier post that "hardly anyone believes that rapture drivel of the Christian Zionists"Why is everybody you don't agree with a zionist?
I'm a Christian.My sacred writ is the Bible.What's yours? Sometimes I think it's "Mein Kamph"(Did I spell that wrong?I've never read it)
I bet no one in your circle believes said drivel,but then what is your circle?
Whether one believes in the rapture of the church or not;even a cursory
reading of the Bible tells of God's special relationship with the Jews.
Maybe Peggy in her post nailed it.We discard the faith that got us here at our own peril.
Let me throw another portion of Scripture out in the marketplace of ideas.In Ezekial's book of prophecy,chapters 38 and 39 deal with a war (not Armageddon) that will usher in the end of time.Some of the players in that war are Persia(Iran),Gog and Magog(modern day Russia,Togormah(Turkey) and other nations.Maybe its drivel and ignorant yahooism.And maybe its not!

11/01/2005 07:00:00 PM  
Blogger sam said...

News Briefing with Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and Maj. Gen. Peter Pace:

SEC. RUMSFELD: It's important that we continue to assess and adapt because of the nature of the enemy that we face. It's an enemy that believes that we, the free and civilized world, don't have the stamina or the will to sustain a difficult effort over the necessary period of time.

I've watched the spread of Communism and the fall of Communism, the spread of Fascism and the fall of Fascism. At times, each toxic ideology was considered the wave of the future and was predicted to triumph over our way of life by people who should have known better.

GEN. PACE: I think with all that's going on, we can all take great pride in the fact that our nation has both the capacity and the compassion to assist the Pakistan government in their disaster relief efforts. Right now we have over 800 U.S. armed forces on the ground, side-by- side with their Pakistani counterparts, over 24 medium- and heavy-lift helicopters with nine more on the way.

Fixed-wing airplanes are dropping relief supplies. Almost 4,000 tons of relief supplies have been delivered.

News Briefing

Or for Verc,

http://www.defenselink.mil/transcripts/2005/tr20051101-secdef4201.html

11/01/2005 07:41:00 PM  
Blogger Cedarford said...

Trangbang68 -

A small minority of Americans believe your Book of Revelations drivel is literally true. Most Christians are not fundamentalists, and most fundamentalists are not the dispensationalists that say America's foreign policy obligation is to do Israel's bidding.

Those that are Israel's American lapdogs are those we also call Christian Zionists - which are mostly rural rubes ignorant of actual ME history. Bush is one such Christian Zionist.

11/01/2005 08:19:00 PM  
Blogger trangbang68 said...

Cedarford,Whoa baby! I used to think you were a pretty smart.Now I wonder.You throw out truisms and bigoted statements like nobody's business and are very impressed with the sound of your own wheels turning.Let me clear up a couple things.
Most Christians are not fundamentalists-Fundamentalist in my definition is someones whose faith is based on scriptural revelation.Most people who drift far from that parameter would not in any meaningful way be considered Christians.
Its kind of like Islam-I agree with your criticism of those who refuse to call Islam what it is.Bin Laden and the Jihadis are true believers.They're fundamentalists.So am I.Except they want to kill you.I want to love and serve humanity.
Dispensationism does not teach that its the duty of America to bend its will to Israel's.Actually the current dispensation we're in is the dispensation of grace where men can receive Christ.
I wasn't referring to the book of Revelations which is murky water but the whole canon of the Bible which speaks of a man,Abraham who fathered a nation,Israel which brought forth the Son of God,Jesus Christ.I believe that God established a covenant with Abraham which He still tolds to.Israel now is largely a secular nation but will in the end of days turn back to God.
What empirical data do you have that most Americans don't embrace fundamental Christianity? Also calling everyone who does a rural rube shows your own pettiness and abysmal ignorance of people of faith.

11/01/2005 08:46:00 PM  
Blogger Mətušélaḥ said...

Cedarfart writes: Simple. The Rosenburgs giving the enemy the A Bomb and Lefty control of the MSM.


If the US wanted to attack the USSR with atomic bombs, they could have done so prior to the Soviets having got their atomic weapons in '48. The cold war wasn't about directly fighting the Soviets. Both parties pretty much at the outset of the conflict knew that a direct military conflict would be a losing proposition for both sides. This was an ideological fight, and it was fought largely through proxy wars: economic, cultural, political, diplomatic, technological, and occasionally military competition.

The USSR was, and still is, the richest country in the world in term of its natural resource wealth. At the start of the cold war it was also rich in its intellectual wealth. The soviets saved a great many Jews fleeing Nazi barbarism when practically no one else wanted to. Jews in turn fought alongside the Soviets, to save the Soviets from Nazi barbarism. A great many Jews perished with their Soviet brothers that fight. Those that survived the war, again helped rebuild the USSR. When Israel gradually switched its nonaligned diplomatic stance towards one of alliance with the Western powers, the Soviets started to turn on their Jewish population. In doing that, the Soviets lost a large pool of their most talented managers, intellectuals, scientists, mathematicians, writers, etc. -- their intellectual brain-trust. The country began to stagnate. With most of the Jewish population out of the country by the early 90's, management the state completely collapsed. The results are what you see today. A once great, first rate industrial and technologically superior country, eking a mere existence off its natural resources

11/01/2005 08:51:00 PM  
Blogger Vercingetorix said...

Lol, sam, thanx.

And for the record, almost any comparison with Rome on the part of the West is quite likely to hold. It is not unlike Mom saying 'you're just like your father'... But the state of the West is anything like Rome, it would be late period, around Constantine, but again, massive, massive differences. And another time.

11/01/2005 09:18:00 PM  
Blogger Charles said...

Cedarford said...
Heraclitus - How was it possible for the Cold War to last 45 years in spite of the fact that nearly every inmate in that vast, plodding bureaucratic Gulag WHICH COULD NOT EVEN FEED ITSELF, wished for it to perish?

Simple. The Rosenburgs giving the enemy the A Bomb and Lefty control of the MSM.

5:57 PM
/////////////////
while the leftists/communists fed the MSM the story line that American conservatives were stalinist/nazis and the McCarthy trials were Stalinist show trials in preparation for the US version of Stalin Doctor's Plot (a shoah in the making)for which the Rosenbergs were exhibit A.

I went to the Symposium on Cryptologic History given by the NSA last week. One the interesting things I learned was that relationship between the NSA and the FBI mapped pretty well over onto the relationship between J Edgar Hoover and Senator Joseph McCarthy.

Specifically the useless mishmash of frightening information that McCarthy was spewing looks very much the way J Edgar Hoover would have felt about the kind of info he was getting from the NSA.

The NSA told the FBI about the contents of the Venona Cables starting in 1948 but insisted that the FBI develop their own cases. The FBI could not use the information gathered by the NSA in court. This is pretty common practice today as in the case of Wen Ho Lee and many others. But the result is that a lot of spies and traitors simply skate free. -- Because the NSA has told the FBI about it but is unwilling to let the FBI use NSA info in court for fear of jeoprodizing NSA souces and methods.

The years after 1948 were the FIRST time the FBI did NOT get their man. Did J Edgar Hoover like it. Nope. As it happens the beginning and ending of McCarthy's public carreer coincides with his weekly meetings with J Egar Hoover. I asked FBI and NSA officials if J Edgar HOover told Senator Joseph McCarthy anything about the Venona Cables. They vigorously denied that Hoover told McCarthy anything. I asked them why the over all number of spies that the NSA pointed to were similiar to the number mentioned by McCarthy. No Answer. Of all the names that McCarthy mentioned all but two were wrong. McCarthy made charges about spies in the state dept or the army. Often the charges were vague.But some of the spies outed by Venona were in the state dept and some of them were in the army. Often the cables would reveal a code name for the spy but the code breakers couldn't affix a real name to the code name. Of 349 spies revealed by venona 171 had true names attached to them and 178 were known only by their code names. Sounds pretty vague? When the arrests started in the late 40s many spies stepped out of government and into the private sector--so no more evidence could be gathered on them. Some spies simply fled the country. Russia's computer silicon valley was started by two spies from the period who fled the country. They were Joel Barr and Alfred Sarant. This story is told ably by Steve Usdin in his book How Two Americans Spied for Stalin and Founded the Soviet Silicon Valley


similiarly many people fled the USA during the investigations of the late 90's into chinese influence peddling of the clinton administration.

11/01/2005 09:21:00 PM  
Blogger sausage sommelier said...

Hey man,

I agree that stuff about Rome and America is pretty trippy. It was a well established fact that Romans loved getting high. Present day Italian-Americans can attest to this fact with the utmost confidence in their shared biology. And with desert pastries like pastrami rolls and candy-bar casserole, who can blame them! Most of these Italian Americans are pretty wealthy and smart and thus tend to vote Democrat. Whats been interesting of late though is that many of the Italian americans i know would rather buy more weed than donate to public radio. I believe its a pretty common thing in America. most americans would rather get high than buy public radio. The center that built that public radio is gone and it lacks a center within the american super organic public mind to maintain it. So all we as Americans can really do is jsut get high as possible and dont stop, even if class is in the morning.

11/01/2005 09:28:00 PM  
Blogger sam said...

Philosophy,

Are you high right now?

11/01/2005 09:50:00 PM  
Blogger ledger said...

Mika you make a good point - as does Charles. But, trying to reason with Cedr4 is a waste of time. He will just drag you into the muck.

One poster suggested a long time ago to just scroll past Cedr4 ignoring his twisted demeaning rants. I have followed that advice for months now. Cedr4 is not worth wasting words on.

11/01/2005 09:58:00 PM  
Blogger Vercingetorix said...

let me second ledger's point, scroll past the trolls. Besides, there are more intelligent posters that actually have something on thread, away from the obvious zionist plots

11/01/2005 10:03:00 PM  
Blogger sausage sommelier said...

Cedarford:

You gotta learn to chill, dude. Play some Tricky. Get yourself an ottoman and an Ocean Spray bottle. Fixing it beneath the ottoman with duct tape allows you to have a bong chamber to cool smoke. All you need is a piece and some tubing - though if youre like me and you like passing around the ottoman just for the dadaism of it, feel free to say "screw tubing!"

Are you going to, like, make a movie called "Zionist Madness" where people hang out with jews and go all bonkers?

In the intrigue of the 'sphere, Wretchard is like 50 Cent, while C4 acts like The Game, pretending like the old ways still matter in the new world, forgetting that you gotta switch the style up when you leave the ghetto cuz that old game aint there no more.

11/02/2005 12:42:00 AM  
Blogger sausage sommelier said...

I log up in the club, I'm like who you with
Belmont in the house, yeah thats my clique
Yeah I'm young, but a usah from the old school
On the web-logs, a usah doin' old moves
I don't give a f***, I do what I wan' do
I hit your post up, boy I done warned you
Better listen, when I talk, usah don't trip
Yo' heat in the car, mine's in this b****
I ain't tryna beef, I'm tryna get my link on
Got my comments, my traffic, and my ping on
I'ma kick it at the bar till its time to go
Then I'ma get cedarford here and I'ma let him know

11/02/2005 12:54:00 AM  
Blogger Heraclitus said...

Edvard Radzinsky in his book "Stalin" argues that while at one time Stalin hoped Jewish financial capital would help rebuild the Soviet Union after the war, Stalin found the prospect of suborning himself to the Baruch Plan world government anathema.

This refusal lead to a total break by Stalin who after fomenting the Doctor's plot hysteria and breaking off diplomatic relations with Israel, was within days of preparing to exile the Soviet Jews to the Gulag (as was done previously with various other ethnic minorities such as the Crimean Tatars, Chechens, etc.), and initiate another great purge along the lines of 1938 to once again prepare the Soviet Union for war.

Stalin, as he had previously planned in July 1941, was determined to attack and subjugate Western Europe.

One may speculate that Stalin saw the beacon of freedom in Western Europe and resultant inspiration for hope as a long term threat to his slave empire.

Stalin's sure knowledge of the American nuclear program led to his calculation that he had still a window of opportunity prior to the stockpiling by the West of sufficient warheads (much as Penkovsky was later to advise Kennedy that the Soviets had insufficient ICBMs). This knowledge, coupled with his success in bogging the U.S. down in Korea made the time ripe for attack.

Only Stalin's murder forestalled this ultimate showdown in Radzinsky's view.

And yet this miserable edifice lasted another 40 years after Stalin's murder, destroying the soul of the survivors of the Gulag for generations yet to come. For when Beria began to let loose the camp inmates it was safe to do so, the entire Evil Empire was a vast slave Gulag.

11/02/2005 03:59:00 AM  
Blogger desert rat said...

Mr Theo van Gogh was murdered a year ago in Holland, today. His throat sliced and lifes blood spilled on the streets of Amsterdam.
At WSK Online there is an article by FRANCIS FUKUYAMA that offers a bit different insight then we usually see here.

"...We profoundly misunderstand contemporary Islamist ideology when we see it as an assertion of traditional Muslim values or culture. In a traditional Muslim country, your religious identity is not a matter of choice; you receive it, along with your social status, customs and habits, even your future marriage partner, from your social environment. In such a society there is no confusion as to who you are, since your identity is given to you and sanctioned by all of the society's institutions, from the family to the mosque to the state.
The same is not true for a Muslim who lives as an immigrant in a suburb of Amsterdam or Paris. All of a sudden, your identity is up for grabs; you have seemingly infinite choices in deciding how far you want to try to integrate into the surrounding, non-Muslim society. In his book "Globalized Islam" (2004), the French scholar Olivier Roy argues persuasively that contemporary radicalism is precisely the product of the "deterritorialization" of Islam, which strips Muslim identity of all of the social supports it receives in a traditional Muslim society.

The identity problem is particularly severe for second- and third-generation children of immigrants. They grow up outside the traditional culture of their parents, but unlike most newcomers to the United States, few feel truly accepted by the surrounding society. ..."

"... someone like Osama bin Laden appears, offering young converts a universalistic, pure version of Islam that has been stripped of its local saints, customs and traditions. Radical Islamism tells them exactly who they are--respected members of a global Muslim umma to which they can belong despite their lives in lands of unbelief. Religion is no longer supported, as in a true Muslim society, through conformity to a host of external social customs and observances; rather it is more a question of inward belief. Hence Mr. Roy's comparison of modern Islamism to the Protestant Reformation, which similarly turned religion inward and stripped it of its external rituals and social supports. ..."

11/02/2005 05:40:00 AM  
Blogger RWE said...

Interesting article by Francis Fukuyama in Opinionjournal.
It begins:
"One year ago today, the Dutch filmmaker Theo van Gogh had his throat ritually slit by Mohamed Bouyeri, a Muslim born in Holland who spoke fluent Dutch. This event has totally transformed Dutch politics, leading to stepped-up police controls that have now virtually shut off new immigration there."
So the Dutch basically shut down immigration due to the death of one man while in the U.S. we lost 3000 on 9/11/01 and have yet to do anything like that?

11/02/2005 05:53:00 AM  
Blogger RWE said...

Desert Rat: Wretchard - and I for that matter - have pointed out that the Islamic terrorist attacks in the West have been pinted more at western muslims than anyone else. They were an attempt to bring muslims that had "escaped" back into the fold by demonstrating the power of Bin Laden and his associates.
Wretchard has further pointed out that this was engendered by the internal weaknesses of western liberalism, which the Islamic Fascists saw not as a huge, unstoppable and vastly superior civilization but as a loose collection of indolent narcissists just waiting for a good push to send them smashing to the ground.
Fukuyama seems to agree with all this (Wretchard should be justifiably proud), but further asserts that it was the modern multicultural mania (MMM) of western civilization - especially in Europe - that created their home grown terrorists.
But does Fukuyama assert that it was this MMM that led to international terrorism expanding out of the Middle East?
Not clear to me - but something to think about.

11/02/2005 06:10:00 AM  
Blogger desert rat said...

Those Dutch are so reactionary, rwe. You can't expect US to even defend our frontiers, let alone deveop SOME KIND of rational Immigration policy.
We do not even enforce the existing Laws, let alone enact new or better ones.
Instead we have developed an underclass where it did not exist 20 years ago. People that live amongst US but are as afraid of the Government as they are of Criminals. Where spousal abuse is unreported, where unemployment is unrecorded and benefits nonexistant. Go by the inersection of Bell & Cave Creek Rds, in Phoenix, there are at least 100 infiltrators concregating on the corner. Each committing a Federal felony by their mere presence in the US.
A Federal Government that cannot defend the National Border is an inept Government, no matter who is the President.
Performance, or lack there of, counts.

11/02/2005 06:13:00 AM  
Blogger Mətušélaḥ said...

Ledger,

Oh, I donno. Where would Wretchard's post count be without Cedarfart's baiting. And as long as Cedarfart is busy here, he's not busy blowing up synagogues.




Charles,

Syrian Bigwigs and Capital Flee under Implied Threat of Military Action

Faced with this torrent of menacing language, Bashar Assad’s close associates have already decided that escape is the better part of valor. Influential Syrian VIPs appear to have read the UN resolution carefully last week and are absconding. DEBKAfile’s intelligence sources reveal large cash withdrawals from Syrian banks, currency conversions and transfers to banks outside the country.

The flight of money was accompanied by an exodus of some of the leading families of Damascus – anxious to beat “the ban on travel and assets freeze” mandated by the UN resolution for suspects in the Hariri murder plot.

The largest capital transfer – estimated at $6-7bn – was made by the tycoon Rami Makhlouf who lost no time in removing himself, business and family from Damascus to Dubai.

.
.
DEBKAfile Special Report November 1, 2005

11/02/2005 06:39:00 AM  
Blogger RWE said...

Desert Rat: I guess that the 9/11/01 attacks came from external sources while the Van Goh murder was home grown explains the different approaches of the two countries.
We have made visitation by people like those who did the 9/11/01 attacks more difficult.
Fukuyama seems to say that the U.S. regards Islamic Terrorism as an external threat while Europe has come to regard it as primarily a home grown threat - and that both views are correct. Can't argue with that.
But he says that fixing the problem in the Middle East will not fix the problem in Europe. Not sure I agree. Seeing their wonderful "home" culture become more Western-like has got to take some of the vigor out of the "Angry Islamic youth" of Europe rather than encourage them.
Nazis were never popular in the U.S., but they got even scarcer after the Third Reich was buried and today are regarded as sick, sad clowns and baffoons at best.

11/02/2005 06:45:00 AM  
Blogger exhelodrvr said...

I wonder if the the anti-Muslim reaction in Holland forced the hand of the government. There was virtually no anti-Muslim activity in the U.S. following 9/11, while there was quite a bit in Holland following van Gogh's murder. The government probably feared (rightly) that they had better do something significant. I suspect that in the long run, the U.S. would have been better off if there had been more anti-Muslim activity following 9/11. And the Muslim community, in the long run, would also be better off, becuase it would have forced them to deal with their terrorist elements.

11/02/2005 07:49:00 AM  
Blogger desert rat said...

Van Gogh was also a censorship issue in Holland, the murderer not enjoying the documentary about the plight of women under Mohammedan rules.
Could you imagine Mr Moore being beat senseless by a rabid Republican, I sure find the mental image of golf club wielding man dressed in Dockers and Polo shirt more humorous than disturbing. The near impossibility of it, here in Ameica. For Europeans random acts of Political and Religious violence are no longer so far fetched, with Mohammedans in Amsterdam, London or Madrid on the attack. The French recently dodged a bullet and the Germans hope for the best.

Perhaps the most liberal and open culture, US, which allows legal immigrants to assimulate into society is the best system.
Being an American is as much a state of mind as of birth, not so with Russia, England or France. Let alone Kuwait, Iran or Iraq.

No matter how long Mr Depp lives in the south of Gaul, no matter how well he masters the language, he will never become a Frenchman. The French will not allow it.

Sam Alito is a 2nd generation immigrant from Italy, nominated to our highest court. You would NEVER see such a thing outside US. The elitists would never allow an outsider in.

They stagnate, we progress.

11/02/2005 07:56:00 AM  
Blogger Michael McCanles said...

The Jihadis are fighting because their religious leaders order them to, which tells us a lot about where the locus of the power to coerce lies among Islamofascists.

Gingrich's comparison with the Reformation wars of religion is very apropos, because the anonymous soldier fighting for the German Lutheran princes or the Catholic Habsburgs believed with all his soul that dying for their religion was real option if their religious beliefs were going to be true, and their souls were to going to be saved. It was, if possible, more serious than a question of life and death.

This point does more than remind us that the development of the West had its own "jihadi" episode, which was very bloody, and concluded with Christianity ceasing to be what it had been for the previous 1500 years, namely, the central power of Western Europe.

It reminds us--those of us at least who are up on our classic Reformation history (approx. 1517 to the end of the 17th century)--that the fundamental fear of the imams is prevailing of a western culture in which they will no longer have power over men's souls.

The notion that Jihadis have as their enemies also the "secular" muslims is a point not nearly enough broadly understood, mainly because secular muslims have a way of staying below the radar. But it makes sense.

I truly wonder about another "Thirty Years War," which is what Gingrich in his Reformation comparison is really talking about. Where the liberals, in their incorrigible military ignorance, believe that the Jihadis can't be beaten because "there's always more," my own take is that the Jihadi threat will last only as long as a critical mass of muslims in the world adhere to the belief that without the imams they will lose their souls after death.

Bush's intuition--and I think it was simply that--may prove to have been the most cunning of all, when he started out to turn a major islamic country into a democracy. The cunning lies in the notion that religious domination of politics has never prevailed in a country that has turned democratic, because democracy necessarily undercuts religious dogmatic quarrels--the foundation of all relgious wars--by marginalizing them to "subjective opinion." That's what ended the relgious wars in Europe at the end of the 17th century, and ushered in the 18th-century "Age of Reason," and in the process the notion of a rational, as distinct from dynastic, form of government, aka "democracy."

America is the child of the Enlightenment, and the Constitution is very much an 18th-century document. You have to give the Jihadis one thing: they're cunning enough to recognize who their real enemies are. And it ain't the "crusaders," who crusaded in behalf of Christianity. The imams recognize that their real enemies are the people of a civiliation that thinks their religion is so much BS.

If that belief were to prevail, the imams would have to get out into the real world and go to work for a living.

11/02/2005 07:56:00 AM  
Blogger Mətušélaḥ said...

Michael, Excellent post! Wretchard should repost it as one of his.

11/02/2005 08:26:00 AM  
Blogger Eggplant said...

Michael McCanles said...

"It reminds us--those of us at least who are up on our classic Reformation history (approx. 1517 to the end of the 17th century)--that the fundamental fear of the imams is prevailing of a western culture in which they will no longer have power over men's souls."

McCanles comment has a strong ring of truth to it. The inter-religious wars of the Reformation were arguably the worst thing that ever happened in Western Civilization (worse than World War II).

Add to McCanles observation, the Saud dynasty's embrace of the ultra-orthodox Wahhabi cult (a necessary condition for their taking Mecca from the Hashimite dynasty) and you have the basis for modern day Islamic terrorism.

The "heavy lifting" in the Global War on Terrorism (GWoT) has not yet begun (Afghanistan and Iraq were the necessary preludes). The GWoT doesn't go into its "end game" until after we've taken on Iran and Saudi Arabia. Unfortunately, our current President has exhausted most of his political capital on Iraq and Afghanistan (liberals and Europeans have taken their toll). A future President (McCain?) will have to carry us to the next step. If Hillary is our next President then another 9-11 incident will be required to carry us to the next step.

We live in "interesting" times.

11/02/2005 08:48:00 AM  
Blogger didymus2000 said...

So Steyn and Wretchard are interested in the fate of Russia?

And particularly all those white Christian folks, as opposed to the Steynian "begins with Mu" Russians?

I could recommend some wonderful essays to read on that very subject, but, alas, they are written by Pat Buchanan.

Regrettably, Pat's writing is not on the approved reading list for Conservative multiculturalists.

For the sake of Western Civilization, we can be thankful that a thorough "idea laundering" by Steyn makes Pat's thoughts permissible in polite society.

The survival of Russia (let's stop pussy-footing around here, shall we? - "white Christian Russia") should be a much more important issue than it is.

I thank the Conservative multiculturalists for having the courage to pick up the banner, if ever so gingerly.

And, no, I don't burn crosses in my spare time, drag people behind pickup trucks, or splash paint on synagogues.

11/02/2005 09:54:00 AM  
Blogger Vercingetorix said...

Didymus, as the 'non-white' Russia tends to want no part of Russia itself, for instance, Chechnya, it seems almost redundant to make the point. BTW, one should point out that, sigh, rumbling in the Caucasus typically involves Caucasians, but again, there is a significant difference between the "non-white" Kamchatka and Sakhalin with the Central Asian republics. It begins with "Mu-" and ends with...

11/02/2005 10:55:00 AM  
Blogger diabeticfriendly said...

Z I O N was here!

kinda spooky...

hey c4, better look under your bed, those pesky zionists might be hiding there....

hey c4, did your wife leave you for a zionist? ya know, most zionists are quite handsome....

hey c4, since most "zionist" are liars, like you say can you really trust any of them? Start with Jesus, he was a ZIONIST...

11/02/2005 10:56:00 AM  
Blogger rogerlee said...

I have to disagree with Newt Gingrich that the Long war will be 90% intellectual.I wonder whether one of the first battles in this war was fought by the Serbs against the Albanians a decade ago. Now the battle rages each night in the suburbs of Paris, and no intellectual resolution seems at hand. Perhaps the Serbs, though their methods were crude and their PR was terrible, were the first people of Christian Europe to truly understand the nature and scope of the threat that they now face, and the actions required for their survival. If the countries of Europe cannot redefine their identities in a way that allows successful assimilation of the Arab masses that live within them, I expect that the will to survive will awaken passions which have been deliberately suppressed in the EU for generations, and the cities of Europe will become a hundred Sarajevos.

11/02/2005 11:31:00 AM  
Blogger ledger said...

rogerlee: Serbs, though their methods were crude and their PR was terrible, were the first people of Christian Europe to truly understand the nature and scope of the threat that they now face, and the actions required for their survival.

That is an interesting point. Even after the military intervention the violence continues elsewhere.

11/02/2005 11:56:00 AM  
Blogger Charles said...

Michael McCanles said...


I truly wonder about another "Thirty Years War," which is what Gingrich in his Reformation comparison is really talking about.

////////////////
This year there's about 80 christian churches up for sale in Berlin alone. There simply isn't much christianity left in Europe today. I think this situation will turn around dramatically because the glory days of atheism from roughly the fall of the bastille to the fall of the berlin wall-- have passed.

However, reinvigorating christianity in Europe will be no mean feat. Luther began the process in 1517 in worms. The high water mark for the moslems in central Europe was 1532 when they laid seige to Vienna. The spanish had already completed their eviction of the moors by then. The Ventians and spanish would defeat the turks in a big sea battle at Lepanto 1571. Here's a pretty complete list of battles from the period

11/02/2005 12:26:00 PM  
Blogger desert rat said...

As of now "they" have no military.
There may be some armed gangs, but no more a military then the Hells Angels. Trained paramilitary at best. Police work, mostly.
The real battle is almost totally intellectual. Freedom, Liberty, Self Determination along with the Rights of Man. Those ideas WILL win converts. Political transformation, political power growing from the will of the people, backed by US, sending Lawyers, Guns & Money, as needed

Away from mullahs and imams and towards a consumption society of cell phones, McDonalds, MTV and Kill Bill.
What's not to like?

11/02/2005 12:33:00 PM  
Blogger Juan Golblado said...

It may be that Gingrich's Long War is less about fighting Muslims than about the West rediscovering itself. While it's apparent battlefields may be in the mountains, jungles and desert fastnesses, the only frontier that matters is in its own heart.

Yep. That's it.

Problem is that a successful liberal society seems to produce this dissatisfaction rather naturally. It's at least part due to the fact that the success has left us without obvious frontiers. We need some orientation, some project to keep us going -- like keeping a bicycle upright by riding it. The possible paths to ride the bike on are increasingly less obvious, and we're now stumped.

So we have to make sure we're not dismayed by the apparent certainty of path of those trying to divide and conquer us.

11/02/2005 12:57:00 PM  
Blogger P-BS-Watcher said...

Reading your post I was struck by the parallel mindsets of those who cannot or will not think about what it takes to protect our civilization and those who refuse to immunize their children. See Vectors

11/02/2005 01:44:00 PM  
Blogger Juan Golblado said...

rogerlee, I think you have a bit of a point. OBL was reliably spotted in Albania while the KLA (Kosovo Liberation Army) was ramping up its activities in the late 90s, and an important "lieutenant" (Reuters' word back then) was actually arrested there. He served some time and then walked. Islamists were at least fanning the flames in Kosovo. But the problem with the Serb leadership was far worse than poor methods. Milosivic was in some ways a Serbian version of OBL. And the Kosovars had a real beef.

So we did the right thing by siding with them. But it would be wrong, silly even, to try to separate too far the confrontation between Muslims and Serbs in SE Europe with the dynamic of Islamism in the Middle East.

Had we not helped out the Muslims in Bosnia and Kosovo, the Islamist terrorists would have a lot easier time trying to demonize the west.

11/02/2005 02:08:00 PM  
Blogger Charles said...

rogerlee said...
I have to disagree with Newt Gingrich that the Long war will be 90% intellectual.
//////////////
well it should be understood by this board that one outcome of this long war will be that all the moslems will be kicked out of europe.

It should be further understood by everyone here that every means needs be made to insure that the moslems kicked out of europe return to the lands from which they came ie north africa and the middle east and east asia.

It should further be understood by everyone on this board that if these pissed off moslems come to the USA they'll find the USA crowded with mortal enemies ie christians and jews. They will make every effort to murder the USA.

Not to worry. God is not just merciful and Just. He has a sense of humor.

While the Moslems have grossely overplayed their hand on many levels--one of the consequences of the their efforts is the speed up of work on energy and desalination. The people working in hydrogen production and storage are just going to collapse the cost structure of the hydrogen economy in the next five years. Five years after that the cost structure for water desalination will follow a simliar path and the way will be paved to turn all the world's deserts green.

When the moslems are kicked out of europe they'll return to lands where cheap water from pipelines will be snaking inland from the coast all over the place.

Same thing will be true in the USA southwest Mexico and Australia. Similiar technology will kill water borne diseases in southeast asia.

11/02/2005 02:18:00 PM  
Blogger Charles said...

Charles said...
rogerlee said...
I have to disagree with Newt Gingrich that the Long war will be 90% intellectual.
//////////////
Here is a second arguement for the world entering a period similiar to the early 1500's. The kind of fundamental cosmological work going on today is as fundamental as was the work Kepler the late 1400's and early 1500's.

By DINESH RAMDE, Associated Press Writer
1 hour, 23 minutes ago

Astronomers may have detected the dawn's early light — light from around the dawn of the universe, that is.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051102/ap_on_sc/early_stars

//////////////////////
Oh and I just saw this
Several days of Muslim Riots in Denmark (Not only in France)
Jyllands Posten ^ | Offentliggjort 31. oktober 2005 03:00 | Af ERIK THOMLE
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1513137/posts

11/02/2005 02:35:00 PM  
Blogger Peter UK said...

The intersting point about Kosovo,which has been missed,is that,although the West went to the aid of the Muslims,the only way Islamosfascism could think of thanking us was 9/11 and 7/11.
Now that is emnity.

11/02/2005 03:31:00 PM  
Blogger Cedarford said...

Michael Mccanles - The cunning lies in the notion that religious domination of politics has never prevailed in a country that has turned democratic, because democracy necessarily undercuts religious dogmatic quarrels--the foundation of all relgious wars--by marginalizing them to "subjective opinion."

Nonsense.

Pakistan started as a democracy. Bangladesh is one. So are Malaysia, Indonesia. Iran has been a limited democracy since 1979. Islamism is strong or dominant in all those countries now. Democratic Turkey has a rising radical Muslim force in it's politics.

Sayyim Qutb, the ideological father of Al Qaeda, became readicalised while living as a schoolteacher in "The World's Greatest Democracy". Atta and the other hijack leaders and planners became MORE radicalized by living in the Spanish and German democracies. The UK's terrorists are home-grown democrats. Half of the radical Islamists we face lived at one point or another in the Democratic West.

It is telling that Gingrich says nothing about the neocon's latest fad - the spread of peace and bliss as right-wing Zionist Sharansky advocates. Like many realists, he thinks it's a pile of crap. Radical Islamists want majority rule and elections.

11/02/2005 03:32:00 PM  
Blogger sausage sommelier said...

c4,

i know its a popular idea, especially at aghast/jaded leftist dinner parties, but its doubtful that a population would really empower these radicals. also, the radicals care about democracy about as much as a socialist movement cares about the middle class constituencies it tries to co-opt during the revolution; its simply the means to an end. nothing more nothing less. no sign of principle or philosophical conviction as you so absurdly and suggest. Pie in your face, sir.

11/02/2005 04:06:00 PM  
Blogger desert rat said...

the FRANCIS FUKUYAMA link that both rwe and I linked to this morning, 5:20am, describes just what is being discussed by C4. It is the "Westernizing" that radicalizes. The further we progress with our Agenda, the more radical will be the Opposition.
They may be, as in Iraq, a minority of the popuation, but their behaviour will grow ever more radical. Directly caused by our winning the Battle of Ideas.
As they say, it is darkest right before the dawn.

11/02/2005 04:33:00 PM  
Blogger Tulkinghorn said...

tefta said...
Tulkinghorn - Surely you jest? We get leftwing propaganda 24/7 from the media, the arts, the academy, the public school unions and on and on.


Not jesting at all. These are indeed sources of propaganda, but not all people who disagree with Bush or who are repelled by what they see as a corrupt administration are listening to or swayed by this propaganda.

Conservative talk radio came into existence to set the record straight and get some facts on the table and to give a voice to people who thought they were alone in objecting to what they were getting from the media.

Conservative talk radio propaganda fulfills the same purpose as leftitst propaganda -- it helps keep the troops in line and on topic. The 50% in the middle don't listen too much to talk radio and have, as far as I have seen, developed a pretty good bullshit detector when it comes to the MSM.


The criticism of Bush is irrational. There's no place for reasoned discourse in BDS country.

Much criticism is irrational. It can be fun to pull a Michelle Malkin and troll around for the most outrageous examples and then assert that the opponents are all loonies. But this is an intellectually dishonest undertaking, because not all, nor even most Bush critics are like this.

When Brent Scowcroft and Larry Wilkerson and Paul O'Neil say that this administration has gone seriously adrift, it does you little credit to imply that Bush opposition is primarily a phenomenon restricted to leftist nutcases.

11/02/2005 04:47:00 PM  
Blogger sirius_sir said...

charles: When the moslems are kicked out of europe they'll return to lands where cheap water from pipelines will be snaking inland from the coast all over the place.

Even granting the assumption, what is to prevent these moslems from hating the West even so? It seems to me that one source of their current hatred is an understanding that they contribute nothing, have contributed nothing, to the modern world. This dearth of scientific and technological achievement informs their rejectionism. The irony of course is that their lives would be better and have meaning if they would only get with the program. But instead they plot ways to destroy a culture that hopes to save them, all the while looking for salvation from imams who are even less equipped than they are for success in the modern world.

11/02/2005 04:56:00 PM  
Blogger desert rat said...

and, don't forget, traitors!

11/02/2005 05:00:00 PM  
Blogger sirius_sir said...

desert rat,

With apologies to you and Fukuyama both I have to ask. Is it "Westernizing" that radicalizes, or is it a nagging sense of inadequacy in the face of modernity? Mightn't the radicalism of fundamentalist Muslims be simply self-loathing turned outward?

Imagine the inner conflict. A young and lusty Muslim man living in the lap of luxury wants to (and does) indulge in the enticements supplied by a culture he believes is inferior to his own. Such a person might afterwards resolve to atone for succumbing to temptation by resorting to some purgative, transformative act. His religion speaks to him of jihad, the inner and outer, struggle. He is told he can save himself by destroying others, thus (as it were) killing two birds with one stone.

The radicalizing agent isn't Westernization, that's just the excuse.

11/02/2005 05:37:00 PM  
Blogger Aristides said...

Sirius, Rat, I analyzed that problem, here.

Westernization is a particular manifestation of the underlying cause of radicalization. More precisely, the cause is consciousness, or a heightened awareness, of place and status in the global arena.

(P.S. I have started posting the longer answers to questions that begin here on my own site, as a courtesy to Wretchard and the clubbers.)

11/02/2005 06:22:00 PM  
Blogger sam said...

The Butcher of Basra:

Frontpage Interview’s guest today is Ali Ibrahim Al-Tikriti, a southern regional commander for Saddam's Fedayheen in the mid-to-late 1980's. Due to his ruthlessness in heading the brutal campaign to terrorize the population, he was known as the “Butcher of Basra.”

FP: Mr. Ibrahim, welcome to Frontpage Interview.

Ibrahim: Thank you Mr. Glazov for providing me the opportunity. I am very grateful for the opportunity to speak freely to the press unlike under Saddam's regime.

FP: Tell us about your background.

Ibrahim: I was born in Saddam's town of Tikrit in 1942. I worked within Saddam's inner circle shortly after his takeover of power in 1979 and participated in the Ba'ath revolution in 1963.

FP: Can you describe the Ba-ath revolution of 1963?

Ibrahim: During the revolution I played a 'strong man' approach. Saddam always admired the tactics of Joseph Stalin and he was my regional leader.

The Butcher

11/02/2005 06:44:00 PM  
Blogger ledger said...

Sirius_sir: It seems to me that one source of their current hatred is an understanding that they... have contributed nothing, to the modern world. This dearth of scientific and technological achievement informs their rejectionism. The irony of course is that their lives would be better and have meaning if they would only get with the program.

I agree with that one.

They ride on the coat tails of the West. They enjoy the West's petrodollars, use the West's technology, and in some cases have hoodwinked the West into fighting for them. Then they plot to destroy the West. I think it's a classic example of a clever enemy who plays a confidence game upon the West, slow bleeds it dry, and plans to finish it off at an opportune moment.

I should make clear my point to rogerlee. We helped them out of a trap that could have wiped them off the map in the Serbia/Bosnia area. Yet, even with that help they continue to attack us as they do with any unbeliever.

11/02/2005 07:12:00 PM  
Blogger Logic Times said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

11/02/2005 08:41:00 PM  
Blogger Logic Times said...

Please visit http://www.logictimes.com/dissent.htm for a far greater analysis of war statistics and the War on Terror.

11/02/2005 08:43:00 PM  
Blogger RD said...

Gingrich, pseudo intellectual history prof & policy wonk nonetheless has the right premise re the relative impact, & role of the military. His political hack, hawk apologist, banqrupt visionary bent is seen in his 30 - 70 years if we're lucky nonsense. Talk about managing expectations... Long yes, war impossible. The problem is the improbable deployment of a new policy paradigm, sorely needed: Self sufficient U.S. energy without oil, extracting ourselves from the Middle East. Like Crack addicts in a bad neighborhood we just can't seem to leave. Let's not tap dance around the issue with respect to Israel either. Instead of the "nudge, nudge, wink, wink" approach to Israel being "widely believed " to have "nuclear capability" we know what the deal is : THEY GOT 'EM, we gave them the capability, forget about the Pollard type cases-- they're small time and actually work for our position: We can be seen as concerned with Israeli security not acctually delevering turn-key, nukes nicely wrapped with a bow.Surely we can't pack up shop and pack everything off to a new wave, alternative energy lab in Palo Alto.We're going to be ther for a while, But the message should be clear to the The Likudnicks and Netanyayu: We want our toys back.

11/03/2005 12:48:00 PM  
Blogger Kierkegaard said...

Using Elizabethan England as a metaphor has a great many pitfalls, since the US is by no means as united, nor feels as threatened as did that nation at that time--once the Spanish threat was removed, of course, England fell apart in a bloody Civil War (much as the US did after all foreign threats were outgrown in the first half of the 19th Century.) Further, it is worth pointing out that Elizabeth's minister Walsingham, under this threat, invented the modern spy network and used torture and murder squads to achieve his monarch's ends; both were popular with her people. Neither are with our own.

A better analogy, I think, would be the Cold War, so recently 'won'. We stand more or less at the same point as we did at Yalta in regard to Islam; agreeing to carve up the world with its spokesmen while subject to inimical infiltration at home and abroad. Do we have the national will to act, once again virtually alone, to first define, then isolate, and finally actively defend against the encroachment of a second hostile ideology within a half-century? Especially as it lies masked within a religion? Mr Gingrich, whom I have slowly come to admire, has the clarity of thought to define these problems, but even he stops far short of visualizing the enormity of a second 'Cold war' commitment.

11/09/2005 11:56:00 AM  
Blogger Alvin Miller said...

eschatology,End Times,second coming,rapture,secret rapture,Second Resurrection,Great White Throne Judgment of the Dead,
End of Days,Day of the Lord,Endtime,Judgment Day

12/05/2005 04:27:00 AM  

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