Weekend Reading
There's some good Sunday reading on future of Iraq after Zarqawi.
The Demise of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, which briefly describes how a Bedouin with no formal education by sheer force of character made himself the center of a terror network. ...
Iraq's Democratic Processes, by Kanan Makiya. Zarqawi had not yet died when this was written, but if his logic is right, then his analysis shouldn't have to change by much.
Now for the Bad News has Marc Ruel Gerecht arguing that Zarqawi's death will mislead America into thinking that good intel and thunderbolts can do the job.
A Plan for Victory in Iraq by Fred Kagan in its own way makes the argument that the US has been too reluctant to change the strategic focus of its efforts from Islamic terrorism to sectarian violence.
In A Shattering of Memes, Dan Darling notes that considering that if Abu Ayyub al-Masri succeeds Zarqawi, it will have established that Saddam and Al Qaeda were in fact connected before OIF.
Commentary
These articles are a hopeful indication that the debate is moving away from the "quagmire" versus "sacred mission" debate to a tacit acceptance that the US is, after all, going to finish this problem; and that settled, the important thing to do now is identify the right way to go about doing it.
posted by wretchardthecat at 6/11/2006 02:39:00 PM
54 Comments:
"... a leadership that elevates victimhood into the be-all and end-all of politics brings untold misery upon its own people. Given political power, this kind of a leadership will in turn victimize. This is an iron law of social and political psychology, confirmed by any number of recent experiences. The insurgents in Iraq fully understand this dynamic; in fact, they are counting on it. That is why their goal is not to win over Iraqi hearts and minds, but to inculcate a state of pervasive physical insecurity conducive to the eruption of the most irrational forms of behavior. Theirs is a politics of fear and intimidation borrowed from the former regime that produced them. It is a politics designed to create a backlash among those very Iraqis who wore as a badge of honor the blue-black mark on their right index finger that showed they had voted. ..."
Root out and kill the Insurgents, or leave 'em be. The Iraqi have to decide, and they can do it on their own. They never will until forced, though. That has been their pattern to date.
Mr Maliki's 18 month timeline to Security, Mr Bush should challenge Mr Maliki to produce one and then fulfill it's deadlines.
Then the proof would be in the puddin', all the way around the table.
Mr Kagan, he thinks there is a War goin' on in Iraq. More than that he thinks it can be won, in Mr Maliki's 18 month timeframe.
Just have to change course and maybe a few Generals to do it.
As I said some months ago the options are War or Retreat.
Mr Kagan thinks War is the answer.
Wonder if Mr Bush reads the Weekly Standard?
Guess we'll know Tuesday night, what Mr Maliki and Company think of Mr Bush's new and revised Plan of Iraq.
We must not conflate Iraqi political normalization with our war strategy.
Kagan is way off. It will take the Iraqi Army to police Iraq.
We need the new Iraqi government to address its income needs by cranking up oil exports.
We need to keep up our campaign to refresh the Iraqi national police.
COIN is war in slow motion. Get used to it.
It is against our strategic interest to rush out the door.
Sixty years of mutual defense might be just the ticket for both parties.
Debka can be very unreliable outside of their sphere but their take on the Jordanian angle fits other reports while giving a lot more detail
Here's another good Zarqawi post-mortem link. Of course, being the Atlantic, it's "woe is us" pessimism all the way through, but it had a number of interesting anecdotes. Such as this:
Despite their enthusiasm, al-Zarqawi, al-Maqdisi, and Abu Muntassir did not appear to be natural revolutionaries. Their first operation was in Zarqa, in 1993, a former Jordanian intelligence official told me, when al-Zarqawi dispatched one of their men to a local cinema with orders to blow it up because it was showing pornographic films. But the hapless would-be bomber apparently got so distracted by what was happening on the screen that he forgot about his bomb. It exploded and blew off his legs.
If there has ever been a better description of the pathology we face, I have not seen it.
As for the Americans, “These, as you know, are the most cowardly of God’s creatures. They are an easy quarry, praise be to God. We ask God to enable us to kill and capture them to sow panic among those behind them.”
If I feel ANY pity for these creatures, it is for this, that they are being fed lies, lies that lead them to their deaths, lies that lead to ignominy, and their 'leaders' do all in their power to keep the people from learning of Baha'u'llah!
I agree blert, that the Iraqi should lead the way.
Mr Kagan dismisses using them except to "hold". Seems to me they could "clear" as well as US.
Better, in fact, from an Iraqi political prosepective.
Provide the ISF with the logistical and payroll support needed to make it an effective ally. There is no one else coming, the ISF is the cavalry.
The anarchy in Baghdad cannot be allowed to continue, or the Unitity Government will have proven unable to govern. The same will be proven if US force is used as both the hammer and anvil.
If Mr Maliki's Government is to be a beckon of democracy in the Mid East, then it has to get out of the shadow of US, and shine bright.
The window of proving his and his Government's independence and legitimacy in the Region is short. That is why he is pushing for a '07 Security handoff.
We should provide whatever aid required to achieve those ends.
Last Updated: Monday, 12 June 2006, 13:16 GMT 14:16 UK
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Zarqawi 'died of blast injuries'
Pictures of Zarqawi's body were put on display by the US
Militant leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi died from injuries consistent with the results of a bomb blast, US military officials have said.
Questions had arisen over how he had died after the Americans revealed he had still been alive following the bombing of a safe house by US planes.
An autopsy had revealed that the cause of death was a blast injury to the lungs, said a US military doctor.
DNA analysis had confirmed the corpse was Zarqawi's, Col Steve Jones said.
Zarqawi and five others were killed after US planes dropped two 500lb (230kg) bombs on Zarqawi's safe house near the city of Baquba on Wednesday.
Col Jones said the leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq had "no evidence of beating or any firearm injuries".
"The cause of death was close based primary blast injury of the lung," he told reporters.
This wound was not immediately fatal, said the US official.
"Fatal death occurred as lung function deteriorated and the lungs became progressively unable to absorb oxygen into bloodstream."
Col Jones said an autopsy on Zarqawi's spiritual adviser Sheikh Abd-al-Rahman had revealed that he was killed instantly in the air strike.
This sounds like a painful death, hopefully.
Zarqawi was ruthless and intelligent. That made him a natural jihadi leader. Among jihadis, many are ruthless, but few are intelligent. The relentless logic of the bell curve suggests that only 5% or fewer of arabs have the intelligence to lead a modern terror movement. But most intelligent people, even arabs, are more reluctant to place themselves at risk than the average virgin-chaser. Jihad is hell on the arab bell curve, killing many of the few intelligent males.
So probably 1% or fewer of all arabs can successfully lead a terror group. Bin Laden and Zawahiri are being sheltered by rogue state elements and out of the game except as figureheads. People like Zarqawi are rare. Would-be Zarqawis blow themselves up by the dozen, by accident or by someone else's design.
Interesting analysis al fin. It is sobering to think that by winning the GWOT, we end up with a lot of dumb Arabs for our victory prize.
Papa Bear...
I'd say you've nailed it.
Special Forces need a long chit chat with the rescue crew.
al fin
The national IQ average of Iraq is about one standard deviation lower than America.
To be a ‘natural born leader’ it takes an IQ of about 105, absolute minimum.
An IQ more than two standard deviations above the average of the citizenry is a handicap: the gulf in outlook is too great.
This means that AQ in Iraq leadership is limited to players with IQ between 105 and 115. Hence Zarqawi was smart just to a point. Zawahiri is too smart and is relegated to wise man, probable IQ 135. OBL is positioned as the mystic marketing man: the song of Allah. Again, smart just to a point, probable IQ 120.
These ranks are very scarce since they range 2.5 to 4.5 standard deviations above Arab norm.
Your 5% figure is too generous.
The new Av Week says that the F-16C's that kerpowied Zarqawi were equipped with the new targeting pod that enabled them to observe the target from miles away and that they were in no big hurry to get there.
The mag also says - all quoting USAF sources - that the U.S. was 100% sure that Zarqawi was there.
This sounds like a long, careful, thorough set up with the taking out of Zarqawi the culmination of a lot of work that probably uncovered a great deal about the terrorists - rather than a quick, dramatic op designed for media effect.
The more than 50 raids that took place within 24 hours of the Zarqawi kerpowie also indicates this.
This may have not been just shooting down Yamamoto but the Battle of Midway and the invasion of Okinawa as well.
"... Postscript: A note of cheer to all those Slate readers who either attended the Solidarity With Denmark rally, or sent encouragement, or rallied round to buy Danish goods. I have today received a note from one of the Copenhagen editors who published the original cartoons, informing me that in the last quarter, Danish exports to the United States have increased by 17 percent and that, overall, the Danish economy has more than compensated for the results of the unjustified Muslim boycott. Let us keep this example in mind. ..."
From "The Jordanian Connection"
By Christopher Hitchens
Boycott France - Buy Danish
It's the power of the purse
It'd work on the MSM, too
Report I read (Time Mag I think) said 6 SF men were watching him, became concerned (as nightfall approached?) that they might not be able to assure his capture/death, and called in the AF.
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Demonstrators gather outside Camp Pendleton
OCEANSIDE
---- About 25 people demonstrated outside the main gate to Camp Pendleton on Saturday morning to protest the treatment of seven Marines and a Navy corpsman held in the base brig.
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Dad of Pendleton Marine says he fears son will be a scapegoat
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'Rat 4:00 PM,
Patience:
It's likely Iraq and it's borders are secured by SOMEONE before GWB get's around to STARTING on our Southern Border.
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2164th said...
Interesting analysis al fin. It is sobering to think that by winning the GWOT, we end up with a lot of dumb Arabs for our victory prize.
10:11 AM
Two Birds:
Import in 4 - 500,000 of them/year to make the Economy take off and increase wages for US Workers.
Does not make much difference, in the end. mini Z is worm bait and time will tell if it makes a difference in Iraq.
Will his death secure Baghdad?
Mr Bush is midway through his mini War Summitt. Tomorrow he video conferences with Mr Makiki and his Team, ahh to be a fly in that room.
In any case, I'd expect some type of action taken, shortly.
A Hydra-Headed Monster Called Terrorism:
Do you, like me, have nightmares yet? If not, you should!
Terrorism is about to become a daily occurrence in our lives unless we mobilize adequately to confront all those who would utilize the freedoms of democracy to subvert or destroy our society as a whole. This war will be played out over several generations' victories and losses will be recorded like moves on a giant chess-board.
Hydra-headed Monster
Ok, Trish. I'll make up for that one with this!
UNCOVERING THE TRUTH ABOUT HADITHA:
One marine sergeant says that there was no coverup, and the rules were followed..
ENGLISH-ONLY ORDERING:
At Geno's, a cheesesteak joint located in a South Philadelphia immigrant neighborhood, owner Joseph Vento has posted a sign that reads,
"This Is AMERICA: WHEN ORDERING `SPEAK ENGLISH.'" .
- Ingraham
It was not so long ago that targeted assassinations were out of the question for U.S. Special Forces and intelligence agencies. A former Israeli official, speaking to NEWSWEEK anonymously for diplomatic reasons, recalled being called over to the Pentagon in October 2000, while he was stationed in Washington.
The phone call came from Gen. John Abizaid, at the time the head of strategic policy and planning for the Joint Chiefs of Staff. The American general told the Israeli official that the USS Cole, an American destroyer in Yemen, had just been hit, and that bin Laden was behind the attack. Abizaid asked what the Israelis would do. "General," the Israeli official says he replied, "you have to kill this guy." Abizaid, apparently mindful of an executive order banning assassinations, just shook his head.
"No, no," he said, "We have a policy. We don't do that."
Those were the days.
Newsweek
Bifteck du boeuf avec du fromage
Doug 12:36 Genos Steaks.
Look at his picture link carefully. At the front on the lower front of the building is a painting of a police shield with the picture of Police Officer Daniel Faulkner, http://www.danielfaulkner.com/
murdered in cold blood by a soul brother of Zarqawi, Mumia Abu-Jamal, Maggot Magnus. This black panther thug is loved by the Left, the French named a street after him. Joseph Vento has been a huge financial supporter of the family of Officer Faulkner.
This same Joseph Vento, who is now being investigated and sued by the Philadelphia sewers at The Human Rights Commision for the audacity of asking customers to order in English. I am not making this up. By the way after 911, Joe opened his "steak Joint" up for 48 hours and all the revenue, over $100,000 was sent to the NYPD and NYFD. That was REVENUE, he paid all the costs out of his pocket.
The murder rate in Philadelphia is up 14% over the last five years but the Left Democratic press and City Council are all over Vento for asking customers to use the English words "Cheese Steak", when they want buy a cheese steak.
I think John Kerry, man of the people started this when on a campaign swing through South Philadelphia, he jumped out of his limo and ordered a "Bifteck du boeuf avec du fromage".
GWB in Iraq. He does have some thick bark on him.
Home to the Armadillo, trish.
Well, well, well.
tigerhawk gives ntice of a WSJ report that Mr Bush, instead of teleconferencing wiht Mr Maliki, flew over to see him.
Look back to January and read at the scenarios presented for stabilizing Iraq.
You long time posters and readers, you Belmont firsters, nothing new to you.
It's like the Rangers, the Belmont Club, it leads the way.
"... that Bush had wanted to come to Iraq as soon as the final positions in al-Maliki's government — the ministers of defense and interior — were chosen. Had those posts been filled sooner, Bush would have made the trip several months earlier, Bartlett said. ...
... Al-Maliki has won U.S. admiration by promising to crack down on militias and sectarian violence, promote national reconciliation and accelerate reconstruction efforts and restore essential services such as electricity.
Al-Maliki is also supposed to be announcing that 75,000 Iraqi and coalition troops are being deployed in Baghdad Tuesday to institute the prime minister's new security plan in the capital. Al-Maliki was expected to explain to Bush during their meeting that he will show "no mercy" to terrorists.
The plan will include a curfew and a ban on personal weapons in the city. Roads would be secured, raids against insurgent hideouts launched and air strikes called.
Maj. Gen. Mahdi al-Gharrawi, the commander of public order forces under the Interior Ministry, said al-Maliki's plan would be the biggest operation of its kind in Baghdad since the U.S. handed over sovereignty to Iraq in 2004. ..."
FOX News
"Bush Makes Surprise Visit to Iraq"
"... Today, a statement from Mr. Maliki's office said that the plan for Baghdad included securing roads in and out of the capital, banning people from carrying weapons and implementing a 9 p.m.-6 a.m. curfew. He did not provide more details, saying the plan would be formally announced within the next two days, news agencies reported.
More than 40,000 Iraqi and American forces will enforce the security crackdown starting on Wednesday, a senior Ministry of Defence official, Maj. Gen. Abdel Aziz Mohammed told Reuters.
"The raids during this plan will be very tough," Mr. Maliki said in the statement today. ..." quoted from the NYTimes
I guess, with the Iraqi in the lead "tough" RoE's will be the order of the day.
Mr Kagan's Plan, Mr Malili's troops?
An 18 month timeline to an Iraqi victory & independence, as promised, all around.
The optimistic view is that Mr Maliki stands up the ISF, which secures Baghdad, Ramadi, Haditha, etc., on Mr Kagan and Mr Maliki's timeline.
It may revert to the norm for US, but not the ISF. As their previous norm was unacceptable.
The negitive view has it all devolve into a broader, even more violent Civil War, as the Militias refuse to stand down.
When the Sunni Militias begin tostand down, that will be the first sign of peace. Should know in a week or so, how much Unity there really is going to be.
It will depend upon how well the ISF has been trained, really. If they are seen as the 'strong horse'...
Well then, we will have given radical Mohammedans a fine horse while on our course.
Well, Mr Bush said he supported the "Maliki Plan", what ever that turns out to be. But rest assured there is Mr Maliki's 18 month timeline built into the "Maliki Plan"
If Mr Bush gives the orders, I'd assume the US Army would follow 'em.
Best as they could. Ready or not.
As I said, to have been a fly on the wall.
""Bifteck du boeuf avec du fromage"."
---
But of course that was accross the Street where Specter Hangs out.
Santorum eats at Joe's, of course!
"WTF? ! Who Ate the Canary?"
Hint 1 , Hint 2
Excuse me, it was Mr Bartlett, not Mr Bush himself quoted supportting the "Maliki Plan"
"... "When you're dealing with issues of enormous consequence, the security of our country, the security of the Middle East and the world, and you're making such monumental decisions, its critically important that you're able to meet with the new leader, confer with the leader, who you're going to be making those decisions with," Bartlett said. "We are committed to the success of the new government and the Maliki plan that he is outlining." ..."
"The plan will include a curfew and a ban on personal weapons in the city."
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I think that was called for here about THREE years ago.
"Correct me if I'm missing something"
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Baghdad is key if there is to be any chance at all?
ISF and F-16's for Outliers.
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"Then the ISF would be preparing to fight a war that we aren't."
How hard would that war have been for us w/real world ROE's?
doug said:
A former Israeli official, speaking to NEWSWEEK anonymously for diplomatic reasons, recalled being called over to the Pentagon in October 2000, while he was stationed in Washington.
doug finished that quote from NEWSWEEK with:
Abizaid, apparently mindful of an executive order banning assassinations, just shook his head.
"No, no," he said, "We have a policy. We don't do that."
Those were the days.
Trish then pointed out:
Bin Laden wasn't and isn't a head of state so the law pertaining to assassinations clearly did not apply. To what "policy" was Abazaid referring? Perhaps the "policy" of just not giving a damn. Burned a lot of britches, that did.
------
in a post a few days back (I can’t recall the exact date but it was circa 09 or 10 June) I referenced the specific Presidential directives:
My recollection of the legal instrument addressing “targeted assassinations” is that Reagan in 1981 announced an executive order banning the use of assassination as a method of eliminating heads of state.
The relevant Presidential directives are: Executive Orders # 11904 - Gerald Ford, 1976; # 12036 - James Earl Carter, 1978; and #12333 - Ronald Reagan, 1981. The U.S. government has generally defended its military attacks aimed at the residences or locations of hostile leaders as differing fundamentally from clandestine attacks by covert agents. (from http://www.hooverdigest.org/021/berkowitz.html)
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Forgive me for even thinking this... but is it possible that NEWSWEEK, that paragon of journalistic probity and circumspection, might simply be LYING?
Or possibly, they don’t give a crap about checking facts that inconveniently contradict a story they REALLY WANT TO BE TRUE????
Could it be that the alleged former Israeli official simply DID NOT EXIST? Was a total fabrication??
Could professional journalists actually be so blatantly partisan and irresponsible?
Please, don’t break my heart!
Say it ain’t SO!!!!!
(I stopped accepting as reliable anything Newsweek printed over three decades ago. I’m sure every once in a while they inadvertantly let something true slip past their censors — Hell, nobody’s perfect...)
"But let's not forget Zinni's instrumental role in the Cole incident. Despite repeated warnings of the terrorist threat at the port, he thought it was a super idea to dock there - in order to foster better relations with the Yemeni government."
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POTUS was Bill Clinton, Yemeni Ambassador was Babs Bodine, one of his girls.
Kicked out our BEST terrorfighter, she did, and now he's gone, along with Rick Rescola.
---
Hippies from Hell.
Fiddler 3:19 PM,
The fact remains that we had numerous chances to take him out, and did not.
In this case it was only an attack on an American Warship, so why bother.
Babs would have peed her Levis.
Thanks for the additional detail, doug.
Your history has a compelling ring of authenticity.
You had to be there (maybe your were?)
UCSB, circa 1970, home to Babs AND Joe Wilson!
Then there was Bill on the Sudan offer:
"We didn't have enough evidence charge him with anything."
Do not fear, the MSM is about to be brought to heal, we won't have alot of reporting by IS sources to complain about, much longer.
This report tells how the modern market A Thirst for Black Ink From Good Papers By Richard Cohen.
Mr Cohen bemoans that it is happening, his perspective, but have no doubt, it's happening. Squeezed at both ends.
All the wood pulp products will have overheads slashed, in an effort to maintain profitability.
Reporters will be amongst the first to go. Already happening, but it will not be enough.
The Broadcast Networks will follow. Video on demand will be the death of 'em.
In sports, entertainment and news.
'Rat: Interesting Report on Spread of news.
"A search of the Web found blogs on the crash from as far away as Africa."
Stale news, isn't.
Especially if someone wants you to pay for it.
That is what Mr Kagan advocates, increase US strength and be relentless. To paraphrase.
The Maliki Plan, suggests a similar approach, I wager.
Nonstop & Oppressive.
It's the Iraqi's Plan, on a US approved course.
The Iraqi will either stand down or stay the course, war or retreat.
Now Mr Maliki gets to designate the Enemy, doubt if he is going to be to shy to name them.
"Baghdad is a key, like Kabul is a key"
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I don't think they are analogous.
Well, trish, Mr Maliki has been talkin' tough for a while now.
No tellin' what is really going to happen there, though, 'til it does.
4:48 PM
One thing for sure:
For neither him nor the Dentists is it a matter to be easily ignored.
---
New Defense Minister:
" I Hate CNN "
(He should learn from Saddam:
Pay them off!)
Glenn Reynolds reports big Domestic News of the day:
Deck Chairs overturned on the Porch.
Roethslisberger improves
The Trick is to let your face absorb the blow!
(or wear a helmet)
Ward Churchill:
Call your office.
While you still have an office.
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Looks a little underwhelming, here:
Anti-Violence Initiative Announced for Baghdad
"But it is intended to be more comprehensive than previous efforts, with economic incentives such as making gasoline easier to obtain and plans for "beautifying" a city full of buildings blasted by bombs and guns, officials said"
...like "comprehensive" immigration reform, we hope.
Not.
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