Friday, October 07, 2005

Letter to Zarqawi

An article by the Washington Post suggests that Al Qaeda has finally realized how disastrous its failure to establish a united front has been in Iraq. (Hat tip, DL.) The Washington Post article is based on captured correspondence between Ayman Zawahiri to Abu Musab Zarqawi and lays out the strategic context of Al Qaeda's efforts in Iraq.

The letter of instructions and requests outlines a four-stage plan, according to officials: First, expel American forces from Iraq. Second, establish a caliphate over as much of Iraq as possible. Third, extend the jihad to neighboring countries, with specific reference to Egypt and the Levant -- a term that describes Syria and Lebanon. And finally, war against Israel.

From this basis Zarqawi is reminded that the priority is to expel the United States from Iraq. Only in the second phase will the Shi'ites be put in their place when Al Qaeda establishes "a caliphate over as much of Iraq as possible". In that regard Zawahiri has calls on Zarqawi to tone down his media message of brutality against the Shi'a presumably so that both can focus on driving out the hated Americans. In other words, it is a call for a national united front, which is always an act in two parts: cameraderie in the first followed by betrayal in the second.

...  Zawahiri writes about the need to maintain popular support ... he rebukes the leader of Iraq's insurgency for its brutal tactics -- noting that hostages can just as effectively be killed with bullets rather than by beheading, officials said.

But the velvet glove only temporarily masks the iron fist. When America is driven from Iraq, Al Qaeda will turn anew on the Shi'a and Kurds and the caliphate will established over all Iraq. Moreover, contrary to the claims of George Galloway and the peace movement, an American withdrawal from Iraq will bring no end to hostilities. A retreating United States will be pursued until it is destroyed.

But bin Laden's deputy also purportedly makes clear that the war would not end with an American withdrawal and that anything other than religious rule in Iraq would be dangerous. "And it is that the Mujaheddin must not have their mission end with the expulsion of the Americans from Iraq, and then lay down their weapons, and silence the fighting zeal. We will return to having the secularists and traitors holding sway over us," the letter reportedly says.

(Speculation alert) Implicit within Zawarhiri's message is an admission that the insurgency is headed for defeat unless it changes it's policies and thereby its fortunes. Al Qaeda must have viewed with mounting alarm the increasing numbers of Iraqi troops that the US can field against them. The campaigns against the Euphrates and Tigris lines and the seize and hold operations now in progress must be hurting them. Therefore, despite their theological antipathy for the Shi'ites it must have occurred to them that their car bombs, beheadings, outrages and gratuitous murders -- all dutifully reported by a media thinking it might chill American resolve -- were working against them; this brutality was driving the Shia and the Kurds into American arms. And now Zawahiri admits this policy may be leading to their defeat.

It is tempting to thank all those who have made this possible, beginning with those who believed that playing up the insurgency's gruesome work on the front pages would project the 'helplessness' of America and contrast it's impotence with the puissance of Abu Musab Zarqawis 'freedom fighters'. Mention should go to everyone who argued that 'insurgent losses did not matter'; that body counts were irrelevant when following the development of an insurgency. Finally, a special award should be given to everyone who ignored the buildup of Iraqi forces and the establishment of an Iraqi State as being futile and beyond the wit and capability of the US; who believed even recently that only 1 of 3 Iraqi battalions in existence were fighting the insurgency, when in fact there were 100. Perhaps the downside of the insurgency's 'media-combined arms' campaign was that it not only fooled some of the public, but it misled themselves as well.

It is foolish to gloat because the task ahead is still great and fraught with danger. As Zawahiri's message made clear, Iraq is but the first phase in an attempt to create a global caliphate. Today Iraq, tomorrow the World. Where have we heard that before?

28 Comments:

Blogger TmjUtah said...

One has to wonder at the willful disconnect that exists in the minds of the jihadists.

The recognize implicitly that western media is on their side and exploit that fact to the hilt.

Then they attempt to include western media reports in their strategic planning - blithely ignoring the facts on the ground in favor of propaganda that they themselves scripted.

There is no doubt at all in my mind that a key consideration leading to to the timing of 9/11 was the full court media press already in effect against this administration: the homeless were back from Aruba - dropped off the buses in front of the TV cameras on inaugeration day, "selected not elected", broadsides of economic doom, and a general level of disrespect and outright insult from all the Best and Brightest media organs.

An outside observer might have thought we were adrift and helpless; granted, Kossites and other Blues never leave that particular gate anyway...

The strategy defined in your post sounds an awful lot like the recipe for Tiger Soup, to me.

"First, catch a tiger..."

The war can fail. But it won't be at the hands of any jihadis. We'll lose it here, if anywhere.

10/07/2005 07:26:00 PM  
Blogger al fin said...

Building a world caliphate is difficult. A jihadi's work is never done. He makes difficult decisions daily--to behead, to shoot, to bludgeon to death--so many to kill, so little time.

It is best for the budding jihadi to understand that he is not alone. Millions stand at the ready to take up arms against the crusaders. Well, maybe thousands, really, but millions more are standing ready to celebrate the victory.

Stay tuned to Al Jazeera for all the good news.

10/07/2005 07:30:00 PM  
Blogger Unknown said...

Why bother with Zawahiri when the British have Sir David Frost planted inside the blessed and righteous Voice of the Resistance?

10/07/2005 07:43:00 PM  
Blogger ledger said...

Two things lead me to believe that the terrorists are hurting badly:

1. Bin laden and his right hand man Ayman Zawahiri are supposed to have the support of rich oil princes worth about $85 billion - Zawahiri is asking Abu Musab Zarqawi for money. Hum, Bin Laden and this right hand man may be running low on cash.

"Zawahiri also requests financial support from his ally in Iraq and then asks for more information..." -WP


2. Bin Laden's Zawahiri berates Zarqawi for his brutal beheadings and killing of fellow Muslims but congratulates him on his fine work. That's contradictory. Zarqawi must be angry with him because of his conflicting statements - you can't terrorize people without terrorizing them. Hence, Zarqawi continues to behead civilians (and making more enemies).


"...he [Ayman Zawahiri] rebukes the leader of Iraq's insurgency for its brutal tactics -- noting that hostages can just as effectively be killed with bullets rather than by beheading..." -WP

Well, it's just too darn bad the letter never reached Zarqawi. Now their game plan has gone down the flusher.

10/07/2005 10:29:00 PM  
Blogger NahnCee said...

I'm thinking that the beheadings and other gruesomenesses are also having an impact on Arab/Muslim audiences.

Everything that Wretchard said about showing American weakness pertains, but about the time you start showing Arab Muslims pictures of their mighty mujahadeen driving car bombs into groups of children, it's suddenly not the Americans who are looking weak any more.

All those pictures of all those dead children, not to mention the blowed up mosques, are making editorial writers in the Middle East use that word "terrorist" which used to be the exclusive enclave of Israel being mean to the Palestinians.

Fatwa's are even being issued. And they are *not* saying, "Go out and blow up some more kids, o mighty religious jihadist."

10/07/2005 10:46:00 PM  
Blogger Karridine said...

tmjutah: (a response)

"Be not of those who forget God, and whom God hath caused to forget their own selves." The Glory of God


When they start smoking the addictive, disjunctive opiate of self-pity mixed with arrogant self-righteousness, the are perforce out of touch with reality!

10/08/2005 01:33:00 AM  
Blogger RWE said...

Perhaps the most astonishing aspect of Zawahari's letter is the reported statement that Al-Quada is running a bit short this month and could Zarqawi a slip them a few bucks. This indicates not merely a serious tactical problem but a huge strategic one.
Recall that then the Axis lost WWII they lost it big time, every where, and in every way. They had Allied bombers roming freely over their capital cities, ground troops desperately looking for the best escape, and subs running for their lives thousands of miles away.
When it end comes, it comes fast,hard, and completely.

10/08/2005 04:39:00 AM  
Blogger RWE said...

Anyone hear of a reply by Zarqawi to the letter? Supposedly it is in the form of an audiotape. It appears that he may have read the letter in the media and is responding to that. Aside from the fact that this is an interesting mode of communication -(is the next step exchanges in the letters section of Playboy?) - the reply says that in regards to killing innocents "Islam does not recognize a difference between civillins and combatants."
Well, gee, old man, we sort of figured that out - but how does that respond to the concern over killing of all of those Shiites?
Anyone else get any more details of the "Zarqawi response?"

10/08/2005 05:27:00 AM  
Blogger Dr. Sanity said...

I've posted on the parallels between Zawahiri's Strategic Plan and the "unofficial" strategic plan of the Left and antiwar protesters. link. As Wretchard said, where have we heard this before?

10/08/2005 05:39:00 AM  
Blogger newc said...

Zarqawi and his buddies get horns.

10/08/2005 06:04:00 AM  
Blogger enscout said...

The letter makes several things clear.

1) AQ is hurting enough in Iraq to be willing to change its tactics. Obviously due to the combat losses but evidently due to the Muslim reaction to their butchery.

2) They are patient. Much more so than are we. Knowing full well that no matter how many young jihadis die for their cause, new generations and half generations of their willing minions are being redied in the madrasses of Pakistan and Iran.

3) They still have a chain of command in place. Nothing like the structured environment of western armies but authority from top to botom nonetheless.

They know they are down but not out. This is evidence enough to me that they have enough wherewithall to change tactics and become a more dangerous enemy.

10/08/2005 06:29:00 AM  
Blogger NahnCee said...

They still have a chain of command in place.

Again, read Michael Yon's latest on what happens to the "chain of command" for terrorists in Iraq. Essentially you have a chain with links of bin Laden, Zawahiri and Zarqawi on one end, and an ever-shortening set of links at the other end.

Or replace that chain image with one of a snake, and we've been cutting off the tail and inching our way up to the head of the snake, killing off terrorist by terrorist. To me, that snake should be thrashing and bleeding mightily by now, as we get closer and closer to the head.
* * *
Hubris, back in the puzzle palace on the Potomac, will kill more Americans than the jihadists and evil-leftist-media put together.

At what point is it permissible to feel cautious optimism? Never, lest it be named "gloating"?

10/08/2005 08:54:00 AM  
Blogger Boghie said...

Enscout, (0629)

1) AQ is hurting enough in Iraq to be willing to change its tactics. Obviously due to the combat losses but evidently due to the Muslim reaction to their butchery.

It will be difficult to change the dynamics in Iraq. The only opportunity that I can see is in the Iraq/Iran border region where the Brit have been playing the ‘soft’ hand. I think that the Brits are changing tactics as I write. I do not think al-Zarqawi has much influence in that region.

2) They are patient. Much more so than are we. Knowing full well that no matter how many young jihadis die for their cause, new generations and half generations of their willing minions are being redied in the madrasses of Pakistan and Iran.

We have been patient for 4 ½ years. President Bush is a doggedly patient man – see the caterwauling about the Supreme Court nomination. See the effect the caterwauling of the 2004 election had on our activities – minimal at best. See the recent polling in the Middle East. Note that our valiant and brilliant enemy has WRITTEN into his enemy list the nation states that support his terror campaign. That was a terrible mistake.

3) They still have a chain of command in place. Nothing like the structured environment of western armies but authority from top to bottom nonetheless.

The fact that we apparently got the message and al-Zarqawi didn’t signifies a rather weak chain of command. Zarqawi’s response via media outlets demonstrates the same. The fact that Zawahiri is asking for support and information likewise points to something.

To those who seem to think this is a realpolitik conflict, and thus we will bail out ASAP and leave the region to strong men with a gangster mentality please note: We have been in the fight for 4 ½ years. Zarqawi has no influence in the north or south or east of Baghdad. His influence is rapidly degrading in the riverine region to the west of Baghdad. His bosses have just placed a long term challenge to his regional state sponsor. And, the Iraqi government – with a military trained by the best martial force in the world – is threatening that same state sponsor with repercussions. And, oil exports are now consistent and to levels approaching pre-1991 levels. And, most importantly, Zarqawi is being heavily out-recruited mano-i-mano.

The Fat Lady is singing.

Unlike most leaders, President Bush will press the effort of eradicating al-Zarqawi’s structure completely. There will be nothing left of it. At that point, with a battle trained Iraqi military, do you find Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and the southern ‘insurgents’ to be the strong horse? I would hate to be them. You have to know when you are winning so you can start planning your next battle in the Global War on Terror.

10/08/2005 10:01:00 AM  
Blogger Boghie said...

JWS (1114),

The neocons could have leaked the letter in July when:

1. Plamegate was in a media driven full throat yell.

2. Iraq was defined as aQRD, Iraq - the new al Qaeda Recruit Depot, Iraq modeled after those who trained the illiterate, uneducated, misery class back door draftees that populate the Marine Corps.

3. Cindy Sheehan started her rant

http://boghieonyoursix.blogspot.com/2005_07_01_boghieonyoursix_archive.html

or August when BusHitler

1. was sneaking in John Roberts as chief priest of the Society of Robes

2. Cindy Sheehan kept up with her rant.

http://boghieonyoursix.blogspot.com/2005_08_01_boghieonyoursix_archive.html

Maybe the leak was a leak.

By the way, for the tin foil hat brigade out there:

Does anybody know how many days after 9/11/2001 December 31,2005 is. Yup, thats right 1571. Try googling Islam and 1571 (or 912 - if they got the timing a bit off). Big days in Islamic history. 1571 is the battle of Lepanto, 912 is when the Caliphate of Cordoba was initiated). Can't really find anything else. This week would be the years when Spain started pushing the Moors out. Just to get that hat tuned, you see.

Ooooh, Ahhhh

10/08/2005 11:59:00 AM  
Blogger diabeticfriendly said...

c4 spews..

Zionist Colonists.....

mr c4, let me ask you this, since you yourself claim the jews from the arab world are so very close ro the dna of the so called pali's, dont JEWS have a right to live in Israel? or even disputed Hebron or Jerusalem?

If they dont, tell me, are you, an colonist yourself living off the blood of other's land? why are ONLY arabs allowed to live in the west bank? why are they allowed to have a NO jews policy on the lands which are 1000 times as large...

Doesnt your Juden Free attitude really say your against JEWS living in historic Israel? BTW Israel that WAS a country for 1200 years? Tell us wise C4, why should JEWS not be allowed to "REsettled" their historic lands?

Tell us oh wise C4, why are Jews that want to see a Israel be a jewish state be zionist coloniers, when arabs have 21 islamic states, not to mention the other 101 islamic countries? And yes oh wise c4, dont peddle the JEW only crap, israel is 25 % islamic. Israel has arabs in the knesset and arabs do vote and own land, unlike your bud's the arab world.

Is it really possublke that you have quite a double standard?

Is it possible that no matter how much land israel gives to your pals the palestinians, you will still see israel as a "imperial colony", and if that is the case, why should you and your family be allowed to live anywhere in the USA?

Your term "zionist colonists" is insulting, if jews are colonists in Israel, you my friend are a common land stealing thief, at least Israel and the Jews have thousands of years of history on that land, you are just a recent crook... and to end, if jews are "zionist colonists" then arabs must be colonist too... just ask the berbers, the coptics and the kurds, or that doesnt matter to you, since all you do is want to hate Jews...

c4, happy new year! this makes 3000+ years (can you count that high?) in historic ISRAEL OF JEWS..

remember

Jesus aint no stinking pali..

King David was no stinking pali..

King Solomon was no sticking pali,

I guess they were all Zionist Colonists.....

10/08/2005 12:39:00 PM  
Blogger Boghie said...

JWS,

I got out of hand and apologize. I didn’t get the chance to read some of the follow-up. Sometimes my smarmy attitude gets the best of me, and I get into similar debates with all types far too frequently.

I was actually just stating that the letter could have been distributed whenever it was found and folks could have come up with a viable conspiracy as to the timing. I was at a speech in San Diego during which the letter could have been used effectively by the administration. The administration should have waited till the magic 2000 fatality day hit before presenting the letter if politics was a goal. They could have bopped the idotarians at the International ANSWER Peace Rally. I just don’t think this administration works that way in general.

As far as its accuracy...

How 'effective' has Zarqawi been in the run-up to the Constitution ratification in comparison to the January elections. I would say that he has not approached the scope and violence he committed in the month before the election. I would say that with all the captures and kills from the ‘River War’ that it is likely some schlump was carrying this bleating from higher command.

We can never guarantee. We should never completely trust our government. And it might be important for our government to misdirect our enemy using the media. But, based on the events subsequent to January 20th it does appear that things are moving smartly to victory.

10/08/2005 12:47:00 PM  
Blogger Unknown said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

10/08/2005 03:53:00 PM  
Blogger Unknown said...

What I like about the Neocon's tactics/ strategy is that the whole lexicon is now being re-conquered or taken back from the Commie/ Islamofacist masters of propaganda. Where Cedarfart and the other Commie/ Islamofascists use terminology such as Zionist colonists, Resistance, Occupation, Militants, Jihad, etc., Neocons are using terms such as Democracy, Elections, Citizenship, Constitution, Freedom, etc. One set involves inherently violent and destructive imagery, while the other set involves inherently nonviolent and constructive imagery. It's a subtle nuance if you wish, one that I think works subconsciously. There's a vast, largely unengaged audience watching this conflict in their peripheral, and I think the more Cedarfart and his ilk keep droning about the Imperialist Occupiers versus Democracy, Elections, Constitution, Freedom, the more of an audience they lose to the Neocons.

10/08/2005 04:24:00 PM  
Blogger ledger said...

I have to agree with RWE:

"Perhaps the most astonishing aspect of Zawahari's letter is the reported statement that Al-Quada is running a bit short this month and could Zarqawi a slip them a few bucks. This indicates not merely a serious tactical problem but a huge strategic one."

[Yes, without the funds, bomb, bullets, body-bomb delivery systems are no going to be obtained.]

NahCee:

"I'm thinking that the beheadings and other gruesomenesses are also having an impact on Arab/Muslim audiences.

Everything that Wretchard said about showing American weakness pertains, but about the time you start showing Arab Muslims pictures of their mighty mujahadeen driving car bombs into groups of children, it's suddenly not the Americans who are looking weak any more.
"

[True, as other posters have commented killing your relative's child puts a damper on the whole suicide bomber's list of fund raisers. "Whoa, did not I just donate $25,000 to that group who killed my niece in Iraq? What a waste if money! Further, my Uncle got his legs blown-off in that same bombing!"].

Rick said:

"The letter suggests that Zarqawi is in an almost unresolvable dilemma. To win he must demoralize the US public, but his forces cannot withstand direct engagement with US/ISF troops--they simply get slaughtered. Therefore he strikes soft targets of opportuntiy--almost entirely civilian, which alienates the population and makes them willing to sell him and his jehadis to the Americans--more safe houses bombed, leadership killed, bomb factories and weapons caches discovered and destroyed. Now comes Zawahiri advising Z-man to stop terrorizing civilians--btw there is not a simple divide between Sunni and Shia in Iraq, they are intermarried, inter-related economically and socially, according to Iraq the Model--and many Sunnis have died at Z-man's hands--. If Z-man stops terrorizing civilians, and can't confront regular troops, how does he win?"

[Yes, the old Gordian Knot dilemma. A symbol at first, then a morbid curiosity; then a problem and, then a military solution]

The Gordian knot:

...the knot was an intricate and complex Turkish knot, having no ends exposed...

See: The Knot

...In May 333 B.C. Alexander faced a crucial decision concerning his Persian conquests... Alexander racked his brain for a solution. Finally, in a fit of frustration he asked of his advisors, "What does it matter how I loose it." He drew his sword and, in a single spinning flourish, sliced the Gordian knot open to reveal the ends hidden inside...

See: Alexander

[The sword quickly solved the problem]

10/08/2005 06:44:00 PM  
Blogger JAF said...

Excellent writing Wretchard!

10/08/2005 07:26:00 PM  
Blogger Karridine said...

enscout: "2) They are patient. Much more so than are we. Knowing full well that no matter how many young jihadis die for their cause, new generations and half generations of their willing minions are being redied in the madrasses of Pakistan and Iran."

This is a NEW Day, enscout. The Muslims can no longer afford patience, in an age of widespread, lightning communication.

They have madrassas, but the madrassas are being gutted by internet access to reality elsewhere in the human world.

They have jihadis, but they're being turned toward the Light of Justice by continued exposure to reality, and especially by English/Arabic/Persian-language exposure to the Teachings of The Glory of God, Baha'u'llah.

Zarqawi and Zawahiri are LOSING. Period.

10/08/2005 08:38:00 PM  
Blogger Karridine said...

Scuzi: redied = readied

But on second thought, the zealots and jihadi hate-mongers ARE being re-dyed by their exposure to and dealings with Western civilization.

Id skid.

10/08/2005 08:49:00 PM  
Blogger Tilo Reber said...

I don't think that Zawahiri actually said very much that is new or surprising to those of us who have followed Islam and Al Queda. Two points that I heard from other sources about his letter did interest me. The first was that Zawahiri apparently has given up the fight for Afghanistan as lost. The second was that he requested money from Zarquawi. This seems to indicate that the money supply which is being provided by the world's Islamists is now being channeled mostly to Iraq, with little going to Bin Laden or Zawahiri. It also makes me wonder if Bin Laden's personal fortune is running out. Apparently the Jihaddi supporters want to give their money to a guy who is staying in the middle of the fight. And the fight in Iraq is draining all of the resources that the worlds Jihaddis would otherwise wish to use elsewhere. Of course the letter reinfoces the fact that GW has put a knife in the heart of Islam without necessarily having that intent. If Zarquawi looses his war, light will shine into the Arab world. Education, freedom and democracy will spread throughout the middle east and Islam will die forever as a force in the world. That so many in the west cannot see what is at stake in Iraq is bewildering.

10/08/2005 09:38:00 PM  
Blogger NahnCee said...

This seems to indicate that the money supply which is being provided by the world's Islamists is now being channeled mostly to Iraq, with little going to Bin Laden or Zawahiri. It also makes me wonder if Bin Laden's personal fortune is running out.

Do we still think bin Laden is actively in the picture and that he approved what Zawahiri wrote? bin Laden isn't mentioned in the letter at all, is he?

It seems to me that other reasons for the request for money might be that bin Laden is out of commission and can't sign for it either because he's dead or because his cave doesn't have a fax machine, and/or that the U.S. and its allies have been successful in shutting down the money pipe through which those funds had been flowing.

10/08/2005 10:49:00 PM  
Blogger Karridine said...

Nahncee, Concur Yr Analysis.

Many reasons for requesting working capital... almost all of them GOOD for us and BAD for Zawi the Pinhead and his twin brother, Zarqi the Dog-Faced Boy.

10/09/2005 08:57:00 AM  
Blogger Lanny Nugen said...

mika
One set involves inherently violent and destructive imagery, while the other set involves inherently nonviolent and constructive imagery. It's a subtle nuance if you wish, one that I think works subconsciously.There's a vast, largely unengaged audience watching this conflict in their peripheral, and I think the more Cedarfart and his ilk keep droning about the Imperialist Occupiers versus Democracy, Elections, Constitution, Freedom, the more of an audience they lose to the Neocons.

Not only they lose audience to the other side, they also get themselves deeper and deeper into the slopy end of the abyss to the point of no return by poisioning themselves with such illogical nonsense self talks.

I know a (was brilliant) economic professor at Havard (no longer there) who got himself in so deep with those anarchists plus his hatred for Clinton driving him into all kinds of conspiracy theories. Listen to him talking then is like listening to a third world illiterate person. Now he couldn't even hold a decent job and I've heard lately that he has moved to Brazil working odd jobs writting for some local news. What a waste.

10/11/2005 08:52:00 AM  
Blogger Mr.Atos said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

10/13/2005 10:29:00 PM  
Blogger Mr.Atos said...

The first thing that came to mind as I read the transcript, was Lewis' Screwtape Letters, depicting the correspondence between a senior and junior demon on how to secure the ultimate damnation of humanity.

10/13/2005 10:31:00 PM  

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