Speculation on "Thunder" and "Lightning"
(Speculation alert) Operation Thunder was supposed to be the code-name of a security sweep by 40,000 Iraqi soldiers and policemen in the Baghdad area. The existence of a parallel or separate operation, codenamed Operation Lightning has been announced to the public in connection with the arrest of one Saddam's intelligence generals, now believed to be a mastermind in the insurgency.
In their biggest coup of Operation Lightning, Iraqi and U.S. soldiers arrested a former general in Saddam Hussein's intelligence service who was also a member of his Fedayeen secret police during a raid in western Baghdad, the scene of some of Sunday's heaviest fighting. ''He now leads the military wings of several terror cells operating in the west Baghdad neighborhood of Ghazaliyah,'' the military said in its announcement about the former general.
The blatant implication, if this is not all disinformation, is that Operations Thunder and Lightning are related. Supposing that to be the case, in what way? And in what way are the Baghdad sweeps related to US offensives along the Euphrates river line, such as Operations Matador and Newmarket? The Lightning/Thunder pair may be a high-low mix of attacks, with one going after the high value insurgent leadership targets and the other aimed at disrupting their rank and file street fighters. (Perhaps the real codenames aren't Thunder and Lightning, but it is certainly useful to think that operations against the insurgency in Baghdad are logically going to be divided along high-low lines.) If this represents the actual model then the low-end operation will resemble nothing so much as a roundup of neighborhood gangsters, a task within the capability of the fledgling Iraqi forces. The high end operation will probably focus on attacking on leadership targets. The support for both is rumored to involve up to 10,000 US troops, which to put it in perspective, is ten times larger than either Matador or Newmarket.
Iraqi forces launched their biggest security crackdown since the fall of Saddam Hussein with the start of Operation Lightning on Sunday, a sweep by 40,000 Iraqi troops who will seal off Baghdad and hunt for insurgents. Backed by the 10,000 U.S. troops in the capital, Iraqi soldiers will block major routes into Baghdad and search the city district by district, looking for foreign Arab fighters and Iraqi guerrillas, Iraqi officials say.
A "Lightning" type operation will almost certainly involve
specialized Iraqi and American units, possibly in composite groups. Perhaps one of
these units bagged the Saddam ex-general. (The model of combining US and
indigenous personnel for hunting the enemy has a long pedigree, from Kit Carson
scounts to MACV-SOG). Uniformed American combat troops will probably provide the muscle for any
quick reaction to enemy action.
Announcing the security operation in the press will give little practical advantage
to the street gangsters, who unlike their leadership, are rooted to the spot by poverty and
the need to stay within their protective environment. They've got nowhere to go.
Any conventional police roundup has little chance of catching the nimbler and more
lethal insurgent leaders and key fighters, who will have fallback safehouses,
vehicles and traveling money. But a roundup will be largely effective against
the small-timers. It is the high-end operation which can get to the hardcases.
Announcing the crackdown may even be calculated into spooking the insurgent leaders
into movement, because
shifting safe houses normally creates risks and leaves a trail of overlooked
documents.
One goal of a high/low approach will be to split the rank and file from
the insurgent leaders on whom they rely for handouts. If a normal army travels
on its stomach, an terrorist insurgency travels on its wallet. It is no accident
that insurgent leaders are nearly always captured with
hundreds of thousands of dollars. By combining a police roundup with a targeted
hunt for leadership, the coalition may hope to force a temporary dispersal until
the enemy can rally and re-establish contacts, knowing this will create more
opportunities to exploit. The insurgents are probably aware of what the
coalition intends; and assaults on Iraqi police units are almost certainly
spoiling attacks, launched to slow down the security operation and allow key
assets to escape. After Fallujah and the battles along the Euphrates, the enemy
knows better than to stand and hold ground. The enemy's best bet is to slip the
punch and attack unprotected lines of communication, such as civilian targets,
convoys supporting the security operation or targets highly visible to the
press.
Each side is doggedly pursuing a chosen strategy. The insurgents are fighting their terror/media campaign while the coalition may be "tearing down the mountain", an approach described in Mark Bowden's Killing Pablo -- which described how the drug billionaire Pablo Escobar was finally caught when the US forces and civilian groups deconstructed the drug lord's network of lawyers and political backers until he was reduced to hiding in woodland sheds -- except that it is being applied to the Iraqi insurgency. It is a contest of will and methods being played for the highest of stakes.
12 Comments:
Right on the money!
Looks like the indigs are ready and willing. What a long slog it's been, but Rummy may have just been right all along.
Maybe Chalabi held the key the whole time? I understand the King of Jordon is looking to squash his conviction in abstentia.
In any case, this could be the break through we all have been hoping for.
W,
Interesting. I was thinking that Thunder and Lightning were the same op, and the confusion was in translation. I've also seen reference to a "thunderbolt" . . .
I had not considered that they are two separate ops. I will look for confirmation of this in the press.
"Each side is doggedly pursuing a chosen strategy. The insurgents are fighting their terror/media campaign while the coalition may be "tearing down the mountain", "
---
I read some whiner article in the 'Times, I think, late last nite, that related how put upon the Sunni's were by this intrusion, that might well be Sadr-Based!
...and most certainly had
"strong ties to Iran."
I forgot: It might also hasten the arrival of
THE CIVIL WAR!
(hope springs eternal in the MSM)
Great positive thinking in your analysis Wretchard, exactly why so many come to the Belmont Club.
While the NYT chooses Sunday of Memorial Day to lead their editorial page with "The Death Spiral of the Volunteer Army" - you choose to lead with the positive aspects and results of our efforts.
If we were to modify the allegory of the blind men and elephant, each describing a different part as the whole, and instead of the elephant we talked of an eagle on the hunt - the NYT would be writing about the ruffled feather on the eagle's wing, and you would be writing on the view from the eagle's eyes - not invulnerable, but certainly not frightful and weak and at a loss for what to do next.
I just published a long post on Iraqi matters at my blog.
I submit that Solomon2's link is well worth the read. A well written and easily understandable recitation of the situation.
Good piece Wretchard. As desert rat notes the indigenous people are playing a major role in neutralizing the terrorists. Also, it helps to have the Iraqi Government publish confession of terrorists and their killing of Iraqis on TV. It shows how dirty these terrorists play.
Btw, I was of the same impression as Chester, the Operation Thunder [or Thunderbolt] just got lost in the translation and it morphed into Lightning. It really doesn't matter. The Coalition's offensive is really hurting the terrorists.
Gee,
If Wretchard gets sick, we can all just contribute info, and let Tony turn it into a work of Art.
...we'll have to figure a way where the Eagle has no connection whatsoever to the NY Slimes, however.
I missed the
"Death Spiral of the Volunteer Army"
What will I do to keep up my morale w/o it?
Without cash, the insurgency dries up. Where is the cash coming from? Find the financial supporters and deal with them, and worldwide terrorism is crippled.
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the deep game right now is about figuring out how to make cheap catalysts, semi permiable membranes and molecular lattices for hydrogen storage.
There are no labratories in the USA now that are not working on some aspect of alternative fuels.
Doug Santo,
Most of what you posted seems to be right on target. The only question I have is that (from what I have read) these recent attacks appear to be more coordinated than the attacks have been in the past (in general.)
Doug wrote: "work of Art." Here's one from 'Blue Chip' at LGF, wrt NYT article exposing CIA air ops:
"As I bent over to pick up some dog shhh on my front lawn with a page from the NY Times, the dog shhh said “Get that piece of shhh away from me!”"
[Vulgarity modified.]
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